LHUCKS' 2006 QB Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Wally Cleaver]

Most people requesting my rankings

I'll let other speak for themselves, I could publish a list of at least 50 persons requesting my rankings/and or advice/opinion...including several staffers. Now scamper off to your Yahoo league.

I'm sure your legions of fans appreciate your input. The fact that 99% of drafts have already taken place adds real value to your much awaited insight. Almost as much as your constant screaming for attention here.I'll wait for the 50 names.

Go away jerk off!

 

[lions327]

I think this list would look pretty damn good if you just flip-flopped Bledsoe and McNabb. Bledsoe = suck

T.O. and any decent QB = Top 5 PPGBledsoe finished top 5 last year without TO.

Yet you have Brooks ranked EXTREMELY low.

yeah...I'm not sold on the coaching staff. I have him ranked at the end of his tier. I think you'll see a lot of inconsistency from Brooks this year.

I am also concerned about the Raiders wanting to get a look at Walter later in the year if (when) they are doing bad.

 

[Fla\/\/ed]

I'm curious about your ranking of Favre at 12 - I have him as part of a QB platoon and I'm obviously concerned given his recent performances. What do you like there to make him a low-end QB1 besides the easy playoff schedule?

GB will be forced to throw the ball in the second half...last year that was good for Favre.

You have no idea what you are talking about. Just go look at the numbers Favre put up in the second half of games last season.

Favre ranked first in pass attempts in the second halves of games last year and he ranked 11th in fantasy points.From the data dominator:

1 Brett Favre qb 2005 182 318 1930 6.07 99 8 17 114.00 2 Kerry Collins qb 2005 167 307 2029 6.61 96 10 7 143.95 3 Eli Manning qb 2005 141 271 1797 6.63 83 10 10 124.65 4 Tom Brady qb 2005 159 248 1996 8.05 91 13 7 148.80 5 Gus Frerotte qb 2005 122 245 1509 6.16 73 11 7 115.95 6 Trent Green qb 2005 157 243 2048 8.43 98 11 6 144.90 7 Drew Bledsoe qb 2005 141 241 1736 7.20 82 10 7 119.70 8 Steve McNair qb 2005 144 237 1626 6.86 79 8 3 122.40 9 Aaron Brooks qb 2005 123 229 1432 6.25 73 4 10 98.10 10 Carson Palmer qb 2005 149 228 1722 7.55 85 12 7 134.00 11 Drew Brees qb 2005 130 215 1385 6.44 72 8 10 100.75 12 David Carr qb 2005 132 214 1336 6.24 69 6 7 96.90

Now you know what I have to go through trying to deal with the Favre haters.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I'm curious about your ranking of Favre at 12 - I have him as part of a QB platoon and I'm obviously concerned given his recent performances. What do you like there to make him a low-end QB1 besides the easy playoff schedule?

GB will be forced to throw the ball in the second half...last year that was good for Favre.

You have no idea what you are talking about. Just go look at the numbers Favre put up in the second half of games last season.

Favre ranked first in pass attempts in the second halves of games last year and he ranked 11th in fantasy points.From the data dominator:

1 Brett Favre qb 2005 182 318 1930 6.07 99 8 17 114.00 2 Kerry Collins qb 2005 167 307 2029 6.61 96 10 7 143.95 3 Eli Manning qb 2005 141 271 1797 6.63 83 10 10 124.65 4 Tom Brady qb 2005 159 248 1996 8.05 91 13 7 148.80 5 Gus Frerotte qb 2005 122 245 1509 6.16 73 11 7 115.95 6 Trent Green qb 2005 157 243 2048 8.43 98 11 6 144.90 7 Drew Bledsoe qb 2005 141 241 1736 7.20 82 10 7 119.70 8 Steve McNair qb 2005 144 237 1626 6.86 79 8 3 122.40 9 Aaron Brooks qb 2005 123 229 1432 6.25 73 4 10 98.10 10 Carson Palmer qb 2005 149 228 1722 7.55 85 12 7 134.00 11 Drew Brees qb 2005 130 215 1385 6.44 72 8 10 100.75 12 David Carr qb 2005 132 214 1336 6.24 69 6 7 96.90

Now you know what I have to go through trying to deal with the Favre haters.

Do you get pts for 2nd half pass attempts in your league? I realize that these numbers are posted to show that the Packers aired it out in the 2nd half, but if that 8 stands for TDs and the 17 stands for INTs, these numbers don't sell me on buying Favre.

 

[LHUCKS]

And Culpepper behind Leftwich?

Lefty was top 10 in ppg last year and has a nice playoff schedule with an emerging Matt Jones to boot.Culpepper is playing for a team that doesn't have Moss and that wants to win by playing good defense and running the ball.

 

[tommyGunZ]

And Culpepper behind Leftwich?

Lefty was top 10 in ppg last year and has a nice playoff schedule with an emerging Matt Jones to boot.Culpepper is playing for a team that doesn't have Moss and that wants to win by playing good defense and running the ball.

Jimmy Smith retiring down?Chambers > any Jag receiver.McMichael and RBrown > better receivers than their Jag counterparts at the same positions.

 

[LHUCKS]

Jimmy Smith retiring down?

I know this sounds crazy but I think the WR crew has an excellent chance to be better this year than last.

Chambers > any Jag receiver.

Andre Johnson is a sweet WR but that doesn't mean Carr is a sweet fantasy QB.I just don't believe the Fins are going to air it out this year.

 

[Josh the FunkDOC]

Thanks for the rankings! Makes me feel a little better about myself, as I passed up Vick & Kitna for Lefty & McNair in my $100 league.

Just one thought...I am actually even more down on Trent Green than you are, and would probably put him just outside top 15. His drop in TDs last year, as I see it, came from 3 factors, all of which are still issues:

1. Gonzo's decline. He's at the age where most of the Hall of Fame TEs become less productive, and as such I believe last year was not a fluke and things will only continue to get worse.

2. Willie Roaf's injuries. This didn't have an enormous effect on the running game (check LJ's stats last year when Roaf was out), but it nerfed the passing game a great deal. Roaf of course is retired now, and by all accounts Kyle Turley has just been awful in his place.

3. LJ was so good in the red zone, the team didn't need to throw much. Obviously still the case.

These problems, combined with Green's age, mean that his numbers will continue to decrease IMO.

Your thoughts?

And btw, glad to see someone else likes the Jags WRs besides me. Wilford, in particular, is much much better than people give him credit for, as he is money in the red zone.

 

[Bri]

What are your thoughts on Carr? How surprised would you be if he did well?

 

[tommyGunZ]

I just don't believe the Fins are going to air it out this year.

Can't argue with that. I agree, I think that Saban is going to run Ronnie Brown into the ground this year.But I still think C-Pep outplays Leftwich. Gameplans be damned, I think the Phins have better weapons and I'm not sold on Leftwich being a 3800, 25+ guy yet.

 

[renesauz]

Nice work LHUCKS...had to re-read your intro to the rankings to make sense of a couple of slots.

I love McNabb's upside this year, and think he could challenge for top 3 easily in total points, so your ranking didn't make much sense until I realized how ugly his playoff schedule is.

GOOD WORK.

EDITED TO ADD: I would still have Mcnabb a lot higher based on my own expectations. IMO, playoff matchups should only be applied/considered when the players in question are already near equals. Who your guys play in weeks 15 and 16 won't mean a darn thing if you aren't in the playoffs to begin with!

 

[renesauz]

What are your thoughts on Carr? How surprised would you be if he did well?

Very.

 

[LHUCKS]

What are your thoughts on Carr? How surprised would you be if he did well?

Given his history and given his preseason I just can't draft the guy. It perplexes me because going into the NFL I thought he had the world going for him.

 

[Tau837]

18. Roethlisberger

Interesting that you have Ben ranked higher than Vick, Simms, Rivers, Kitna, even though you don't flag him with great PPG relative to ADP or great playoff schedule, and given we know he will already miss at least one game, possibly 2 or 3. He looks too high to me.There are some other rankings I disagree with, but that one stood out as a discussion item. Good post, in that it provokes some interesting discussion, which is all too rare nowadays.

 

[LHUCKS]

EDITED TO ADD: I would still have Mcnabb a lot higher based on my own expectations.

McNabb without T.O.

+---------------------------------------+-----------------+				 |			  Passing				  |	 Rushing	 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT	YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 1999 phi |  12 |   106   216  49.1   948   4.4   8   7 |	47   313   0 || 2000 phi |  16 |   330   569  58.0  3365   5.9  21  13 |	86   629   6 || 2001 phi |  16 |   285   493  57.8  3233   6.6  25  12 |	82   482   2 || 2002 phi |  10 |   211   361  58.4  2289   6.3  17   6 |	63   460   6 || 2003 phi |  16 |   275   478  57.5  3216   6.7  16  11 |	71   355   3 |

Throw in the fact that Reid has openly stated he wants to pass less and I think his upside is limited when compared to the guys I have ranked ahead of him.

 

[renesauz]

True, but this Eagles receiving corps is deeper then any they have had under McNabb. They still have arguably the best receiving RB, and a pair of good pass catching TE's. McNabb has been razor sharp in the pre-season and seems to have a chip on his shoulder. I see a career year coming.

That said, I understand how many can't/won't see him that high. I can agree to disagree and continue to target McNabb later in drafts then I feel he should really go.

Edited for sp.

 

[LHUCKS]

18. Roethlisberger

Interesting that you have Ben ranked higher than Vick, Simms, Rivers, Kitna, even though you don't flag him with great PPG relative to ADP or great playoff schedule, and given we know he will already miss at least one game, possibly 2 or 3. He looks too high to me.

Yeah. I'm somewhat balancing risk with reward with my Ben ranking. He's a lot less risky than all of those players you've mentioned. That being said, I would not couple him with another "safe" qb. I would go with upsided guys like Warner if I drafted Big Ben. Ben is difficult to project for this year. I've mostly stayed away.

There are some other rankings I disagree with, but that one stood out as a discussion item. Good post, in that it provokes some interesting discussion, which is all too rare nowadays.

I wish I could have posted these a month ago, but I have a lot of cash riding on my rankings/analysis.

 

[LHUCKS]

That said, I understand how many can't/won't see him that high. I can agree to disagree and continue to target McNabb later in drafts then I feel he should really go.Edited for sp.

Based on what I've seen he's going pretty damn early...hard to target him late with his published ADPs. I would bet a good deal of coin Warner has a better ppg and you can take Warner several rounds later.

 

[Bri]

What are your thoughts on Carr? How surprised would you be if he did well?

Given his history and given his preseason I just can't draft the guy. It perplexes me because going into the NFL I thought he had the world going for him.

I had similar thoughts. I just did a "eh what the heck" waiver addition for a junk dynasty team I took over. Need some types like that to pan out. Domanick would have made me feel better about Carr's upcoming season. I guess I figure Kubiak is going to be a good coach. Eventually, his QB will be good as he's a good offensive mind. Not sure if Carr will still be there then or Kubiak will go in another direction. I hate young QBs that always seem to be on "building" teams and never play for a solid team. I always wonder if they're wasted or the reason the team remains in building mode.How about Romo? Are you handcuffing Bledsoe if you grab him?If you spend a high pick on Peyton, would you feel it's essential to handcuff him? If so how early in the draft do you dip into the QB "well" again? Would you consider taking his backup superlate?What are your thoughts on Alex Smith? Can Davis make that passing offense(and him) dramatically improve like Gates seemed to?

 

[renesauz]

That said, I understand how many can't/won't see him that high. I can agree to disagree and continue to target McNabb later in drafts then I feel he should really go.Edited for sp.

Based on what I've seen he's going pretty damn early...hard to target him late with his published ADPs. I would bet a good deal of coin Warner has a better ppg and you can take Warner several rounds later.

Ealiest I've seen in any of my drafts is QB5. Usually seeing him going as the 9th or 10th QB. I got him as the 12th QB in 2 drafts, and as the 15th in another. Rounds are immaterial since QB's go later in shark drafts and earlier in more guppy dominated drafts.Edited to add: It was me who got him at 12, 12 and 15....no matter how high on a QB I am, I NEVER reach for one

 

[Das Boot]

Players to Target: Palmer, Plummer, Bledsoe, Warner, Leftwich

Excellent rankings and thoughts for discussion - thanks Lhucks.

My thoughts:

Palmer is too risky to take, esp. where he is going (2nd QB taken it seems like recently). I know he's looked good in preseason, but I just logically can't believe he'll go very long without swelling issues and either having to take some games off, or playing hurt. Maybe I'll have to start revising my thoughts on the time line for recovering from serious knee injuries, but I just think it's too fast, too soon for Palmer. As a Bengal fan I hope not though.

Plummer - pedestrian numbers and Cutler in the wings are my concerns.

Bledsoe - the concussion a few days ago give me pause for thought. Probably nothing but... And the unknown that is TO - not only the headcase issues, but my gut feeling is that the hammy is going to be a big problem for TO this year.

Warner - higher than avg. injury potential (no way to prove this, just my gut feeling) and Leinart in the wings.

 

[LHUCKS]

Ealiest I've seen in any of my drafts is QB5. Usually seeing him going as the 9th or 10th QB.

He's #2 according to the FBG published ADP and if I had to ballpark where he's been going in my drafts I'd definitely say top 5.

 

[renesauz]

Ealiest I've seen in any of my drafts is QB5. Usually seeing him going as the 9th or 10th QB.

He's #2 according to the FBG published ADP and if I had to ballpark where he's been going in my drafts I'd definitely say top 5.

Then I guess I've been stealing him. FBG has McNabb MUCH higher then most of the other rankings out there. You wouldn't pull the trigger if he was there as the tenth QB in the 6th or later round?

 

[LHUCKS]

Players to Target: Palmer, Plummer, Bledsoe, Warner, Leftwich

Excellent rankings and thoughts for discussion - thanks Lhucks.

My thoughts:

Palmer is too risky to take, esp. where he is going (2nd QB taken it seems like recently). I know he's looked good in preseason, but I just logically can't believe he'll go very long without swelling issues and either having to take some games off, or playing hurt. Maybe I'll have to start revising my thoughts on the time line for recovering from serious knee injuries, but I just think it's too fast, too soon for Palmer. As a Bengal fan I hope not though.

I can't think of many QBs that had setbacks with this injury...given he's been playing volleyball, hasn't seen swelling and has looked great in preseason I'm willing to take on the risk. He outscored Peyton in most leagues last year and has been sliding in some drafts.

Plummer - pedestrian numbers and Cutler in the wings are my concerns.

Plummer in '04 without Walker:

+---------------------------------------+-----------------+ | Passing | Rushing |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2004 den | 16 | 303 521 58.2 4089 7.8 27 20 | 62 202 1 |That's a lot of yards and a lot of TDs. Throw in Walker and I likey.

Bledsoe - the concussion a few days ago give me pause for thought. Probably nothing but... And the unknown that is TO - not only the headcase issues, but my gut feeling is that the hammy is going to be a big problem for TO this year.

Top 5 without TO. Also, look what happened to McNabb's stats with TO...skyrocketed. TO has alwasy dealt with his hamstring issues and is always ready to go gameday.

Warner - higher than avg. injury potential (no way to prove this, just my gut feeling) and Leinart in the wings.

Yep, need to handcuff with Leinart and need to couple with another "safe" qb like Plummer/Brady/Bledsoe/McNabb to be totally risk averse.

 

[LHUCKS]

Ealiest I've seen in any of my drafts is QB5. Usually seeing him going as the 9th or 10th QB.

He's #2 according to the FBG published ADP and if I had to ballpark where he's been going in my drafts I'd definitely say top 5.

Then I guess I've been stealing him. FBG has McNabb MUCH higher then most of the other rankings out there. You wouldn't pull the trigger if he was there as the tenth QB in the 6th or later round?

Yes. I have him ranked 9th so that's where I'd take him in a vacuum, but knowing that I can get the Plummer/Warner combo or Bledsoe/Warner combo later in drafts it's hard to pass up a high upside RB and/or WRs in the middle rounds.

 

[Justloveit]

Thanks LHUCKS. Considering how much work you put into your rankings i'm appreciative that you share them for all to see. Those that knock LHUCKS for "trying to get attention" etc etc should shut the hell up and maybe help contribute to the forum by posting their own rankings. One feels they lack the self confidence to do this or are simply too selfish to share their work with others. In any case, LHUCKS should be commended for what he brings to this forum.

 

[RRaptors]

Nice work LHUCKS! I'm looking forward to your RB and WR rankings.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Nice work LHUCKS! I'm looking forward to your RB and WR rankings.

As am I - post then soon!

 

[Big Blue Wrecking Crew]

 

[Eagle Eye]

RunningBacks Up Next

 

[LHUCKS]

Nice work LHUCKS! I'm looking forward to your RB and WR rankings.

As am I - post then soon!

RBs this afternoon/evening.

 

[teamramrod]

LHUCKS,

Thank you, great work.

Now a question. In a 16 team league where you draft TEAM QB, would some of the QBs move up in your draft order (not projections, but like you structured this article, wher eyou would DRAFT them).

IE: Warner/Leinert

Leftwich/Garrard

Bledsoe/Romo

Since you get the handcuff without wasting a draft pick?

I assume that it would, but how much weight do you give to getting the free handcuff?

Personally I really like Dallas QB and Arizona QB situation for team QB.

Thanks agian man, awesome writing.

 

[LHUCKS]

LHUCKS,Thank you, great work.Now a question. In a 16 team league where you draft TEAM QB, would some of the QBs move up in your draft order (not projections, but like you structured this article, wher eyou would DRAFT them).IE: Warner/Leinert Leftwich/Garrard Bledsoe/RomoSince you get the handcuff without wasting a draft pick? I assume that it would, but how much weight do you give to getting the free handcuff?Personally I really like Dallas QB and Arizona QB situation for team QB.Thanks agian man, awesome writing.

I might move Jax up a few spots but would leave Dallas/AZ where I have their starters ranked.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Nice work LHUCKS! I'm looking forward to your RB and WR rankings.

As am I - post then soon!

RBs this afternoon/evening.

I love the Bledsoe and Favre tandem. Drafted them in rounds 8 and 13 in a ten teamer:Tiki BarberTerrell OwensDeShaun FosterWarrick DunnT.J. HoushmandzadehDeion BranchEddie KennisonDrew BledsoeBen WatsonDeAngelo WilliamsIsaac BruceTroy WilliamsonBrett FavreBrandon JacobsMarion Barber IIIJermaine WigginsMiamiNew EnglandStephen GostkowskiOlindo Mare

 

[teamramrod]

I might move Jax up a few spots but would leave Dallas/AZ where I have their starters ranked.

Would it affect WHERE you took them in the draft? Maybe 6th round rather than 7th?

 

[LHUCKS]

I might move Jax up a few spots but would leave Dallas/AZ where I have their starters ranked.

Would it affect WHERE you took them in the draft? Maybe 6th round rather than 7th?

Hard to say exact rounds without draft history regarding positional runs.

 

[doughboydeluxe]

What I like about LHUCKS rankings is that he has a reason behind where each guy is ranked... he doesn't just throw names up against the board or take the consensus rankings. I may not agree with all of his reasoning, but it's nice to see what someone else thinks to either confirm my own thoughts toward a player or give me a differing opinion that I may not have considered previously.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I don't understand where all the Plummer love is coming from. I like Javon Walker as much as the next guy, but Denver's always been a run first team, and Walker is coming off of a serious knee injury. After Walker and Smith (who is falling off), there is nothing, including TE.Perhaps I'm missing something, but I think Denver's receiving corps is worse this year and Plummer wasn't a fantasy starter last year.

 

[jurb26]

I don't understand where all the Plummer love is coming from. I like Javon Walker as much as the next guy, but Denver's always been a run first team, and Walker is coming off of a serious knee injury. After Walker and Smith (who is falling off), there is nothing, including TE.Perhaps I'm missing something, but I think Denver's receiving corps is worse this year and Plummer wasn't a fantasy starter last year.

One week, and Den played poorly last year in their 1st game on the road. Plummer very well could be a great play this year.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Bad year to wait on a quarterback.

 

[Bri]

Bad year to wait on a quarterback.

Yeah Warner did poorly

 

[Hue G]

Bad year to wait on a quarterback.

Why?I got Delhomme late in 2 drafts and Bledsoe in one, neither had great weeks this weeks but neither did most other QBs so far.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I don't understand where all the Plummer love is coming from. I like Javon Walker as much as the next guy, but Denver's always been a run first team, and Walker is coming off of a serious knee injury. After Walker and Smith (who is falling off), there is nothing, including TE.Perhaps I'm missing something, but I think Denver's receiving corps is worse this year and Plummer wasn't a fantasy starter last year.

One week, and Den played poorly last year in their 1st game on the road. Plummer very well could be a great play this year.

Big difference b/w last year and this year. This egg from Plummer comes on the heels of his AFC Championship debacle, and at this time last year, Denver didn't have a better QB on the roster (Cutler > Plummer, right now).Another 4 TO performance from Jake, and it's going to be awfully tough to keep Cutler on the bench. I imagine the Denver press is going to be all over this situation this week.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Bad year to wait on a quarterback.

Why?I got Delhomme late in 2 drafts and Bledsoe in one, neither had great weeks this weeks but neither did most other QBs so far.

And how did that work out?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Bad year to wait on a quarterback.

Yeah Warner did poorly

One example does not a proof make.

 

[Hue G]

Bad year to wait on a quarterback.

Why?I got Delhomme late in 2 drafts and Bledsoe in one, neither had great weeks this weeks but neither did most other QBs so far.

And how did that work out?

Not much different than it did for people drafting Palmer, Culpepper, or Hasselbeck earlier!!! Plus I'll win 2 of 3 anyway, that is if LT can manage to get 20 yards tonight.

 

[The Football Freak]

Bad year to wait on a quarterback.

Yeah Warner did poorly

One example does not a proof make.

Vick, McNair, Leftwich, Brees all likely went late and have potential to do pretty well. The jury is out on Rivers, Johnson, Brooks and Brunell but they likely went late as well and could produce some good numbers. I thought there were better values in the late rounds this year myself.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Grabbing QBs late is always hit or miss, this year will be no different.

If you targeted Jake late, you missed. Either wise up to your mistake early and move for another QB now, or continue to run Jake out there and watch him ruin your season.

 

[Legion of Doom]

Bad year to wait on a quarterback.

Yeah Warner did poorly

One example does not a proof make.

Neither does one week

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Bad year to wait on a quarterback.

Why?I got Delhomme late in 2 drafts and Bledsoe in one, neither had great weeks this weeks but neither did most other QBs so far.

And how did that work out?

Not much different than it did for people drafting Palmer, Culpepper, or Hasselbeck earlier!!! Plus I'll win 2 of 3 anyway, that is if LT can manage to get 20 yards tonight.

People that drafted Culpepper early get what they deserve.True about the others though, I suppose. I think I'll have a league next year that excludes the kicker and quarterback position!