Lightning in a bottle? (1 Viewer)

[Sabertooth]

There were a few vets that really seemed to put it together last season. Peyton Hillis, Arian Foster, and Brandon Lloyd come to mind. Guys like Ahmad Bradshaw saw their production make a huge bump as well. These guys didn't do much before last season and then they arrived and many rode them to championships.

So which were the mirages and which guys are here to stay? I'm going to hold off on giving my opinion in the name of generating a better discussion (not that anyone gives a rip what I think anyway but I don't want this to dissolve into another pissing match).

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

McFadden was drafted to do what he did last season. New offensive Q, Al Saunders did pretty well with Priest Holmes, Ray Rice, Steven Jackson, etc.

Foster showed what he could do at the end of the 2009 season. He carried that forward into 2010 and I expect more of the same from him this season.

Brandon Lloyd had shown glimpses in the past of being a good WR, but more often than not, he faltered. I'm not sold on him repeating.

I don't really have an opinion of Bradshaw until I see where he goes.

 

[meatwad1]

I like Bradshaw a lot, esp if Jacobs is gone.

Foster, I think will be solid, but not worthy of #1. Everybody thinks thier D will be much improved, but how will that happen if they have the same dreadful defensive backfield? Also, I am not an expert on how these things work out, but from what I have read, the defenses will be behind the offenses because of the lockout, so I think Hou will see more balance on the pass/run and I also can see Tate getting a shot, so Foster is not worn out.

Hillis: I would not pick him. Too much uncertainty with a new coach, and new players being brought in.

Lloyd: I just read a good peice on players who soaked it up during garbage time last year. Orton and Lyoyd were at the top of that list so there is no way I will take either of them. Come to think of it, Foster was on that list too, and he was the beneficiary of TONS of last minute checkdowns as Schaub ran for his life. That probably will not happen twice in two years, as Kubiak will have to think of a new winning strategy to keep his job this year. My guess that strategy might involve more Andre Johnson. Another reason you might want to pass on Foster at #1.

 

[jwb]

Foster surprised a lot of people, including his own team (who likely do not draft Ben Tate had they known). I own him in several leagues mainly because I was lucky enough to be holding him when he "hit". Obviously, I will keep him/etc, but I am also still a teensy bit leery - some guys are drafting him top 5 in startups. I would not go that route.

Hillis - He's always produced when given the chance, but I don't see a bellcow lead back here. I see a bruising committee member who will produce RB2 numbers for several years. In startups, he seems to be lasting until round 4 or so (he went 4.11 in a recent ppr startup). I don't think that's an unreasonable place for him to go.

Lloyd... we've seen glimpses of his talent, but he put it all together last year. I saw enough talent to feel good about him being a nice WR2 for a few years. Again, it depends on where you get him. In the above startup I mentioned, I took Lloyd at 6.11, right around where Austin Collie, Greg Little, Pierre Garcon, and Johnny Knox are being drafted. Give me Lloyd any day there.

Bradshaw has looked the part since day 1. The guy oozes talent, and always seems to get yards. Nobody should be surprised here. I think if he stays healthy, we'll be talking top 10 startup pick next year.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Hillis - He's always produced when given the chance, but I don't see a bellcow lead back here. I see a bruising committee member who will produce RB2 numbers for several years. In startups, he seems to be lasting until round 4 or so (he went 4.11 in a recent ppr startup). I don't think that's an unreasonable place for him to go.

Hillis' current ADP is a consensus 2.10 in a 12-team league. The FBG experts have him at 2.08. Most folks aren't sleeping on him and seem pretty confident he'll produce near last years numbers. I'll be using a late 3rd round pick (3.10) to keep him in one of my leagues. I think he is well worth that spot. I am a little concerned that Hardesty will vulture a few touches, but not near the goal line. That is where Hillis' value lies.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Hillis - He's always produced when given the chance, but I don't see a bellcow lead back here. I see a bruising committee member who will produce RB2 numbers for several years. In startups, he seems to be lasting until round 4 or so (he went 4.11 in a recent ppr startup). I don't think that's an unreasonable place for him to go.

Hillis' current ADP is a consensus 2.10 in a 12-team league. The FBG experts have him at 2.08. Most folks aren't sleeping on him and seem pretty confident he'll produce near last years numbers. I'll be using a late 3rd round pick (3.10) to keep him in one of my leagues. I think he is well worth that spot. I am a little concerned that Hardesty will vulture a few touches, but not near the goal line. That is where Hillis' value lies.

Hillis was the #2 RB in some formats last year, so I wouldn't say that people are expecting him to repeat last year's numbers. Not that late 2nd round means he's projected to fall of a cliff, but he's not exactly a consensus top 5 pick (nor should he be).

 

[Ilov80s]

Hillis - He's always produced when given the chance, but I don't see a bellcow lead back here. I see a bruising committee member who will produce RB2 numbers for several years. In startups, he seems to be lasting until round 4 or so (he went 4.11 in a recent ppr startup). I don't think that's an unreasonable place for him to go.

Hillis' current ADP is a consensus 2.10 in a 12-team league. The FBG experts have him at 2.08. Most folks aren't sleeping on him and seem pretty confident he'll produce near last years numbers. I'll be using a late 3rd round pick (3.10) to keep him in one of my leagues. I think he is well worth that spot. I am a little concerned that Hardesty will vulture a few touches, but not near the goal line. That is where Hillis' value lies.

Hillis was the #2 RB in some formats last year, so I wouldn't say that people are expecting him to repeat last year's numbers. Not that late 2nd round means he's projected to fall of a cliff, but he's not exactly a consensus top 5 pick (nor should he be).

Exactly. Foster is the only back to finish ahead of Hillis last year in many formats and he is a projected top 5 pick. Hillis is in a very similar situation being a 1 guy with only 1 year of dominant football and he is projected to go near the end of the 2nd round. Huge difference in expectations between the 2 players.

 

[Shutout]

Foster showed a glimpse in 2009 against two good defenses with something to play for and he sustained it. He seems ideal for the offense and whether the Texans are good or bad, will find opportunity because he can be the bellcow when they are winning and he can be involved in the passing game when its even or they are losing. Aj gets so much attention in the redzone that Foster is a good candidate down close too. I think he easily maintains the pace. He very much has that "LT/Terrell Davis type of feel to him when those guys rose and just showed they could do it all. A coach that is literarly coaching for his job in a division that, for the first time, can be had, isn't going to get too cutesy with the NFL's leading RB. he knows he can do it and will let him.

McFadden has the talent and now has Hue Jackson. Sounds wonderful. But the REAL difference between McFadden last year and all those other years was that he actually stayed healthy. I hate to predict injuries and such but that thought is in my head when I think of him: "If I take hime, will he be on the field for me every week?".

Hillis will no way do it again this year. His production over the course of the year showed a clear letdown at the end. He looks very much to me like Brandon Jacobs. A guy that can do it but was always stumbling around injuries. Then he has that one lucky/healthy year and he DOES everything you thought he could. But then he comes back and the cummulative wear and tear and style makes it really hard to stay on the field two complete seasons. I would sell Hillis as fast as I could and I could live with it if I make a mistake (assuming my return for him is anywhere near what a top 5 RB from last season should fetch).

I can see Lloyd going either way. I think he is a guy you pretty much have to keep if you have him and don't go looking for if you don't Would be really hard for people to find a fair value for him they were "sure" of.

 

[GregR_2]

Hillis - He's always produced when given the chance, but I don't see a bellcow lead back here. I see a bruising committee member who will produce RB2 numbers for several years. In startups, he seems to be lasting until round 4 or so (he went 4.11 in a recent ppr startup). I don't think that's an unreasonable place for him to go.

Hillis' current ADP is a consensus 2.10 in a 12-team league. The FBG experts have him at 2.08. Most folks aren't sleeping on him and seem pretty confident he'll produce near last years numbers. I'll be using a late 3rd round pick (3.10) to keep him in one of my leagues. I think he is well worth that spot. I am a little concerned that Hardesty will vulture a few touches, but not near the goal line. That is where Hillis' value lies.

Hillis was the #2 RB in some formats last year, so I wouldn't say that people are expecting him to repeat last year's numbers. Not that late 2nd round means he's projected to fall of a cliff, but he's not exactly a consensus top 5 pick (nor should he be).

Exactly. Foster is the only back to finish ahead of Hillis last year in many formats and he is a projected top 5 pick. Hillis is in a very similar situation being a 1 guy with only 1 year of dominant football and he is projected to go near the end of the 2nd round. Huge difference in expectations between the 2 players.

There's other factors that you're not taking into account though where expecting similar changes from them DOES justify where they are being drafted.Foster is still being drafted that high because he was a mile in front of anyone else in the league. Foster can drop off 3 PPG and if everyone else did the same he'd still be RB 1 in my leagues.Hillis was near the top of a bunch of players who the difference in performance isn't much. If he lost that same 3 PPG, he'd drop 12 spots in last year's ranking. If he lost 2 PPG he'd drop 8 spots. That is, I think, the main reason that you see Hillis drop more than Foster. When you apply some uncertainty that either will perform the same, Foster is still at the top afterwards while Hillis has a lot of guys near the same level who pass him even with a slight drop off.

 

[RobertBobson]

I am a little concerned that Hardesty will vulture a few touches, but not near the goal line. That is where Hillis' value lies.

You know, I kind of disagree that his talent. I think people pigeon hole him into being a goal line back, and he does get goal line touches ( though not as many as you might think). I think his true value lies in what a talented pass catcher he is. Even if he's in a RBBC situation, even if he loses goal line touches, he's going to be valuable in a PPR league because of his pass catching ability.