Live postseason game thread (1 Viewer)

[Bruce Dickinson]

Unfortunately I played fantasy (poorly) this year

I've played once in the last 20 years.

If I play again, it will be unconventional, like that "suckiest players who still play regularly" league this board had. That looked awesome.

 

[Northern Voice]

Harvey was the biggest story in MLB for like a week

 

[Capella]

Unfortunately I played fantasy (poorly) this year

I've played once in the last 20 years. If I play again, it will be unconventional, like that "suckiest players who still play regularly" league this board had. That looked awesome.

The suck league!! I forgot all about that. We should do that again.

 

[Capella]

Harvey was the biggest story in MLB for like a week

For what.

 

[DoubleG]

Can't be real. Total anomaly. Dude has to cool down in the WS right? right?

It's a contract year, who knows.

Sadly, in today's day and age, when a 30 year old guy who has never had more than 14 HRs in an entire season, suddenly hits 6 in 10 days, it make you wonder how "legit" it is. Especially when the 6 are off some of the best pitchers in baseball in less-than-ideal hitting conditions. I know guys get oddly hot in the playoffs - but they don't usually start breaking post-season HR records when they've historically been light-hitting middle infielders who are now in there 30s.

Who knows is correct.

 

[Northern Voice]

Harvey was the biggest story in MLB for like a week

For what.

Seriously? The agent (Boras) imposed innings limit and all the nonsense (skipped starts, Players Tribune article, coming out in the 5th while cruising) that surrounded it.

 

[Capella]

Harvey was the biggest story in MLB for like a week

For what.

Seriously? The agent (Boras) imposed innings limit and all the nonsense (skipped starts, Players Tribune article, coming out in the 5th while cruising) that surrounded it.

Had no idea.

I don't follow any non-Rays baseball stuff on Twitter and don't watch any mlb shows. I've enjoyed these playoffs though.

 

[Eephus]

Unfortunately I played fantasy (poorly) this year

I've played once in the last 20 years.If I play again, it will be unconventional, like that "suckiest players who still play regularly" league this board had. That looked awesome.

The suck league!! I forgot all about that. We should do that again.

Gobble Gobble

 

[TobiasFunke]

A: Hey, I think the Cardinals have the best chance to make the World Series of all the NL teams.

B: They didn't make it. Not close actually.

A: Oh, I wasn't wrong, I didn't give them a 100% chance of making the WS

lol

They gave the Cardinals a 27% chance of making the World Series. The ELO numbers are a predictive tool, not a prediction. They can't be wrong and they can't be right. The same is true of any predictive tool- regular season wins, run differential, second or third order win %, sdxiest manager, whatever tool you choose to employ. None of them are "wrong" if the leading team doesn't win the World Series, and none of them are correct if they do. Honestly it's a little weird that you don't understand that.

 

[belljr]

Holy wow

 

[Doctor Detroit]

This is intense

 

[uconnalum]

How come the Royals did not sacrifice the runners in the 8th when they had 1st and 2nd and 0 outs in order to try to get an insurance run.

 

[Limp Ditka]

at that being a strike

 

[Northern Voice]

at that being a strike

Was this the 2-1 pitch to Revere?

 

[Limp Ditka]

at that being a strike

Was this the 2-1 pitch to Revere?

 

[Northern Voice]

at that being a strike

Was this the 2-1 pitch to Revere?

:(

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

at that being a strike

Was this the 2-1 pitch to Revere?

I don't blame Revere one bit for destroying his bat in the tunnel after that at-bat. That 2-1 pitch definitely missed outside, way probably too high as well, and no pitches in that neighborhood were being called strikes. Davis destroyed him with that FLITHY 2-2 pitch, but if it's 3-1 maybe he's more patient, or maybe Davis has to give in and throw him a fastball.

 

[Dentist]

Sickening amount of pitching, probably enough to shut any team down in a short series. Glllllll

I've never heard of any of their pitchers except Colon... who appears to not even be in the post-season rotation.

I see they have plenty of power in the lineup though.... and pretty consistent mid range power top to bottom.

Who will DH?

You've never heard of Matt Harvey? Wow.

Nope. I really really don't follow the MLB as a whole.

What's funny here? You can't just follow your team and enjoy it? Why would I bother with the nl if I'm not into fantasy sports?

 

[tjnc09]

It is very difficult to have an intelligent conversation about the postseason because the majority of responses immediately cite regular season stats.

Regular season stats is often a good starting point for the discussion. I think some numbers are more important than others, but IMO there's nothing wrong with a couple of back-of-envelope calculations to get the conversation rolling. For me, seeing difference break out between the regular season and postseason is part of what makes the postseason interesting.

I say KC is better built for the series than Toronto. Cliff's response: One of the best offenses isn't built for the postseason is good shtick

I've i-known Cliff for a long time. He plays up and down to the level of the conversation. If you had said "KC is better built for the series because of X,Y,Z" you would have gotten a more substantive response from him. But since you made a statement that came off like it was fired straight from the Hot Take Cannon, you got what you got.

I say I choose the Met's arms over Cubs bats. Fred's response: lol, Cubs have pitching and hitting. Wrigley posts the team ERAs from the regular season. You tell me "they have one of the best pitching staffs in the league this season outperforming the Mets in several categories knowledgable (sic) people use to measure pitching success" and "Just about every available quantitative and qualitative measure knowledgeable people use would say both teams have strong pitching"

As usual, you're not telling the whole story. Again, difficult to have an intelligent conversation amidst all the misrepresentation.

Love the (sic) callback, BTW. Solid. Especially right behind your use of "Met's".

I asked you specifically what are these "quantitative and qualitative measures" all these smart people are using and your response was I simply was being obtuse. It was a serious question that you didn't bother answering.

In context, you were being obtuse. Plus, you're way behind on the Unanswered Question Scoreboard, so if you don't like questions left unanswered, be the change you want to see.

There is a common fallacy that a larger sample (162 game season) is more useful than a short playoff series. Even people who write about baseball for a living fall into this trap. If that 162 game sample is identical in every way - sure, absolutely correct. But it is not even close. I already addressed this when I asked what does a Bartolo Colon August start have to do with the Cubs vs. Mets matchup we are trying to predict last week. There are numerous other issues such as weather, trades, starting pitching days, bullpen usage, etc. that mean it is incorrect statistically to use the regular season to predict postseason results.

Sometimes people use statistics to start discussion, not end it. I'm generally sympathetic to what you are trying to saying here, but IMO you overstepped a bit on your conclusion and have made other statements inconsistent with it. And I'm saying that while giving you a pass on that awful lead sentence.

The only way people should try to predict a postseason series is to do a game by game analysis of the projected lineups, starting pitchers, bullpen availability etc of that specific series.

Whoa, whoa. Slow down, egghead. In the discussion you keep referring to, the only factors you listed were deep starting pitching and having the best relief pitcher. I know it seems like I keep humping that note on the piano, but I'm trying to help you understand the disconnect between how you think the discourse has gone inside you head versus what has actually happened in the threads.

There's a lot of ways to predict a postseason series. Some are better than others.

I find it fascinating how often you try to paint people and situations black-and-white. Just about everyone I know with a statistics background makes a strong effort to avoid that kind of behavior and discourse.

I will use a simple example to illustrate my point. Let's say the Cubs bat .500 vs. knuckleball pitchers and .100 vs. fastball pitchers. Their first postseason series was against a team whose starting rotation included four knuckleball pitchers. Now, after dominating that series, they face a team who has four elite fastball pitchers. Do you think they have as much success in that second series as they do in the first? Do you think their cumulative regular season batting average that includes facing all types of pitches - sliders, curveballs, knuckleballs, fastballs etc is very useful when you know the team they are facing relies heavily on fastballs? The amazing thing about baseball (and large sample sizes) is you can get a decent idea of how a certain batter does against a pitcher who relies heavily on certain types of pitches.

I agree with a lot of this. We've had discussions like these breaking down postseason series before. If you had led with this, you would have gotten about 80%-90% less flak than you've gotten.

However, this is a much different statement than ones you made earlier, when you summarily dismissed regular season stats.

You also didn't mention the ultraimportance of dismissing Bartolo Colon starts in August. Gotta remember to toss those out.

That is completely different than saying the Cubs bat .xxx and the Mets bat .xxx so they must be similar teams. If you also include who will come out of the pen, better defensive stats, weather adjustments etc., I don't believe postseason results appear as random because of a "small sample size".

Why the quotes? Is the postseason not a small sample size?

P.S. I know who the Cubs reliever is.

You probably do. However, there is still zero evidence in this forum that you do.

My comment about Rodney was a knock on the Cubs. Naturally, when a team doesn't have as good of a starting rotation, the chance they bring in a middle reliever is greater than a team who has dominant starting pitching.

Then your comment was logically flawed. You created a false equivalency between Rodney and Familia. Remember, at the time the only things you said mattered were SP depth and best reliever. So Rodney shouldn't have been a factor, but you brought him up anyway.

I know I was critical, but this was still my favorite post of yours in this forum. By a mile. Just remember if your arguments really are that compelling you won't have to misrepresent anyone's words, including your own.

at you still critiquing my posts. My priority is not to explain myself to meet your expectations. I said I liked the Mets in September, KC was better after game 1, and liked the Mets before their series started. That is more meaningful than anything you could ever post in response to me. How are your predictions doing? Oh wait - you don't have any. Shocking.

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

I tried. If you're comfortable with your contradictions and lies, so be it. Have fun watching the Series.

 

[tjnc09]

I tried. If you're comfortable with your contradictions and lies, so be it. Have fun watching the Series.

Everything you have posted comparing the talent levels of the four teams that remained has been wrong. You don't seem to be trying very hard.

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

I tried. If you're comfortable with your contradictions and lies, so be it. Have fun watching the Series.

Everything you have posted comparing the talent levels of the four teams that remained has been wrong. You don't seem to be trying very hard.

Wow. First you whiffed yet again on another user's intern when you completely misread what I meant when I said "I tried", and then you resorted to yet another lie about me and my posting history. You fatigue me.

 

[E-Z Glider]

Sickening amount of pitching, probably enough to shut any team down in a short series. Glllllll

I've never heard of any of their pitchers except Colon... who appears to not even be in the post-season rotation.

I see they have plenty of power in the lineup though.... and pretty consistent mid range power top to bottom.

Who will DH?

You've never heard of Matt Harvey? Wow.

Nope. I really really don't follow the MLB as a whole.

What's funny here? You can't just follow your team and enjoy it? Why would I bother with the nl if I'm not into fantasy sports?

I was the same way for years. Matt Harvey still isn't exactly a household name (although he may be after this WS).

Hell, New Yorkers dont even know who he is.

 

[sporthenry]

Buckner!!!!!

 

[belljr]

Chapped Lips!!!

 

[Billy Bats]

So doughnuts and twinkies was every third day in Harveys rehab?