Sabertooth said:
Obviously I've started a few threads needling Bucs fans. As fun as those were, my question is now this:
What is the keeper potential of players like Clayton, Caddy, Smith, Simms, and Gradkowski?
Are they just victims of circumstance this season, or are they staring down a 4 year rebuilding process? Obviously Caddy has the talent, but is he going to be mired in a McGahee-esque situation where he is surrounded by nobodies and teams can just key on him?
Is Gruden secure in his job?
Is the offensive line just not gelling or is it a lack of talent?
Is the defense over the hill?
Hopefully between myself and Capella and a few other big buc homers, we can give you what you're looking for... but I'll give my shot real quick in answering your questions.Keeper Potential:
Michael Clayton - He has decent keeper potential. He's not going to lead the league in receiving, but after this season he should begin to put up very solid and very reliable WR2 numbers. He's not hurt and he's a great talent. He's mature and his career is likely to resemble a guy like Keyshawn's (WR20-30).
Cadillac Williams - He has great keeper potential. Most people (including yourself if I'm not mistaken) have this false belief that he is injury prone or that he was a fluke early, etc. He has great vision, great instincts, great cutback ability, and most importantly, he is always moving forward. He always falls forward, carries defenders forward, etc. This year has been pretty lackluster due to the QB and OL problems, but he will be a consistent RB1 performer for most of his career. He's going to be the new face of the franchise after Brooks retires.
Alex Smith - Smith is not a great blocker, but he is improving. I don't see him ever becoming what I would consider an above-average blocker, but he has the capability to be solid enough to maybe be a TE1 in the future. Now, if his blocking doesn't improve, which it may not, he'll always be second on the depth chart to a TE who can block better. This of course will limit his on-field opportunities. But make no mistake, he is a great receiver, and he's a very smart player. I don't think he is really a guy I'd go out of my way to hold on to, and I don't see him ever as a top-tier TE in the league, but I do see him as a guy who can consistently put up decent numbers in the receiving game in the future. Maybe a guy like Marcus Pollard, someone who will put up a great season if he has to be leaned heavily on, but otherwise a borderline TE1.
Chris Simms - Now that the Gradkowski juice is starting to wear off and people are realizing that he's not Superman, it's quite obvious that Simms is going to get his job back. Simms made that quantum leap last year, and although he started off poorly, he got back in his groove in the Carolina game. I think the most likely case is that Gruden barely played him in the preseason, and as a result, he was just rusty out of the gun and took a few games to get with it. Some of it probably was mental, but it was obvious that during that Carolina game he was back to where he was late in '05. He has very good keeper potential for the future, and although I don't see him as a top-5 QB sooner, there's a good chance he might blossom into one later. At the least, he should be a solid QB1 for your league, with potential to boom into stud status.
Bruce Gradkowski - He will be a solid QB, but I don't consider him a starting QB. While he has ice in his veins, he makes a lot of poor decisions and will need at least a few more years to be properly groomed for a starting QB role. Do I think he can be a starting QB? I don't know. He reminds me of Shaun King, a guy who can perform admirably when asked, but isn't going to lead your team to any championships. I wouldn't consider him any more than I would a guy like Josh McCown or Seneca Wallace. Do I think he'll start elsewhere in the future? Perhaps, but he's not going to dazzle anyone, and I don't really see him with much value. He's likely to remain a Buc for a while, and Simms is the franchise QB, who is very likely to sign a 1-yr deal with the Bucs to try to earn the fat paycheck that he believes he's capable of.
The Bucs as a whole aren't the victim of a rebuilding process per say, but it's that Gruden tries to win every season. He doesn't really have the mindset to tank and take all of his lumps at once, and so you get seasons like the last 4 years where they try to rebuild a little here and there, and if things don't go just right, they'll tank.
The defense is going to be re-tooled next year, but you shouldn't see much of a drop-off. Phillips, Quarles, McFarland(already gone), Spires will be gone, and Kelly might be forced into early retirement if his turf toe gets the better of him. They'll have to draft a replacement for Phillips since no one on their roster is even good enough to unseat him now, but they already have replacements lined up for everyone else.
Gruden is very secure in his job. If anyone is in danger in the Bucs office it is Bruce Allen, who is proving to be a marginal talent evaluator, although he is definitely a very good captologist. Unless Gruden has a few back to back worthless seasons, he'll be coaching the Bucs for a long time. He's got most of the pieces he needs in place.
The OL is being re-tooled right now. Look for the Bucs to draft a stud LT to anchor that line next year, and that will complete their rebuilding. Realize that Trueblood and Joseph were hurt beginning the season, and that there has been zero continuity along the line even through the preseason. This is the main reason the running lanes have been so hit and miss for Cadillac this year. This line should gel quite well over the second half of the season, and you should see night and day improvement in the running game. Starting this Sunday at NO, you'll see a healthy OL open up some big holes for Cadillac. Believe it or not, the Buc OL is looking like it's going to be one of the top units in the league for a while in about two years. Right now though, it's still on the bad side of mediocre.
I answered the last question a little bit already, but yes the defense is over the hill. Brooks has definitely regressed and because there is no UT that can penetrate, it really shows the speed of the LBs (or lack thereof this year). Look for the Bucs to address UT early in the draft next year, and then probably replace Brooks after the '07 season. At that though, this unit should still finish (despite its start) in the top-10 if they can get back to being healthy.
Hope that helps.
