What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Looking beyond WR50 (1 Viewer)

ceo3west

ceo3west

Footballguy
I started this thread last year, ended up bombing on 3 picks but hit the 4th in MSW. Last year there were FOUR players drafted after WR50 who ended up in the top 35, making them a solid starter in leagues that start 3 WR's. ETA: This does not include undrafted players who cracked the top 35 (i.e. Manningham, Collie, Wallace). Also, this is based on non-PPR. Here they are:

Miles Austin DAL WR 54

Sidney Rice MIN WR 64

Robert Meachem NO WR 71

Mike Sims Walker JAX WR 72

Drafting a guy like this can make all the difference in winning a title, so I like to look at potential late round gems each year. Here is this years list (ADP as of 7/18):

Mohamed Massaquoi CLE WR 51

Mario Manningham NYG WR 52

Dexter McCluster KC WR 53

Devin Thomas WAS WR 54

Chaz Schilens OAK WR 55

Chris Chambers KC WR 56

Josh Cribbs CLE WR 57

Golden Tate SEA WR 58

Bernard Berrian MIN WR 59

Jabar Gaffney DEN WR 60

Nate Burleson DET WR 61

Terrell Owens CIN WR 62

Kevin Walter HOU WR 63

Roy Williams DAL WR 64

Jacoby Jones HOU WR 65

Arrelious Benn TB WR 66

Devery Henderson NO WR 67

Early Doucet ARI WR 68

Mike Thomas JAX WR 69

Nate Washington TEN WR 70

Mike Williams TB WR 71

James Jones GB WR 72

Louis Murphy OAK WR 73

Laurent Robinson STL WR 74

Josh Morgan SF WR 75

Legedu Naanee SD WR 76

Davone Bess MIA WR 77

Brian Robiskie CLE WR 78

Lance Moore NO WR 79

Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK WR 80

Brian Hartline MIA WR 81

Jason Avant PHI WR 82

Brandon Tate NE WR 83

Michael Jenkins ATL WR 84

Steve Johnson BUF WR 85

Brandon LaFell CAR WR 86

Malcolm Kelly WAS WR 87

Here are my picks this year:

Devin Thomas - Count me in the camp that believes this guy will be McNabb's top target this year. He has all the skills and now he has the QB. Breakout is imminent in my opinion.

Chaz Schilens - Similar situation as MSW - injuries have devalued him but the talent is surely there. The QB upgrade will help big time. Started to look good down the stretch last year when he got healthy. Should emerge as the #1 WR in OAK at some point this year.

Roy Williams - I'll probably get laughed at for this pick, and it's probably deserved. But I like to target vets with pedigree who have been completely written off. I was able to find Galloway this way a few years back and he ended up WR5. I'm not saying Williams will end up there, but here's what I like about him -- he's in the best shape of his career, is extremely motivated after the drafting of Dez and is still a starting WR on what may be the best offense in the league this year. I'll take a shot for the price of a mid-pack kicker.

James Jones - I've always been a Driver fan, but I think this is the year he hits the wall. There are plenty of balls to go around in GB and I think Jones will emerge here. The talent is there along with the opportunity.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Three of the four came out of murky situations where there was no clear-cut #1 guy. (Berrian-Min; Williams-Dal; Holt(?)-Jax)

The fourth emerged as a deep threat on a prolific passing attack.

There are several teams this year where there is no clear-cut #1 guy and I think it is from those areas where some of the WR sleepers will arise. Having a great QB is also helpful, as Rice, Austin and Meachum can attest to.

Teams that come close to meeting these requirements are:

St Louis-Feeley has been servicable and no one knows how good Bradford can be. I am fairly high on his pro prospects.

Tampa Bay-Freeman has a big arm and showed great potential last season. I think he will have a handful of very big games this year.

Oakland-Campbell is by no means great, but he is a tremendous upgrade over the tripe the Raiders have put out there the last few years.

I don't think Buffalo, Ten. and Denver meet the QB test. Chicago meets the criteria, but the three candidates for sleeper wideout there all have ADP's above 50.

I will go with Schillens, Robinson, Stroughter and Jacoby Jones as my high-flying offense break-out player.

 
TO - Just makes sense now that he has signed

These three are "opportunity" guys:

Devin Thomas - I am on this train too. Kid showed nice skills and McNabb made Todd Stinkston into a WR35 once before...he could easily do it with this guy.

Brian Robiskie - I posted a thread earlier about how he could be your WR3 for dirt cheap and will stand by that prediction.

Louis Murphy - It would be cool if Schilens could stay on the field, but he can't. I just saw how Murphy played last year with no QB help at all and see no reason why he cannot sneak into the top 35.

 
Wow I just read that from last year. What a funny read. Moose Muhammed people? Really?

Nice call on MSW by the way. That's how it's done.

 
From the list, the two I like most:

Manningham- He showed he has the goods, just not sure how much can get around to him, SSMith and Nicks

Jacoby Jones- Just time for him to get it done.

Honorable mention: Mike Thomas, Mike Williams(TB), Devin Thomas and Josh Morgan

 
Chris Chambers- He was very hot down the stretch and put up good numbers. In my .5 PPR league he was WR23 from weeks 10 to 17 and I dont see what Bowe has done this off-season to prove he is the guy. I think Cassell and Chambers already have chemistry

James Jones. I agree on Driver and think this guy can explode big time

Legedu Nananee. The opportunity is there along with a great QB

Early Doucet. He looked good in the playoffs and Breaston has had some injury issues. The chance is there to be the #2 guy and the #3 there did well last year. Even if I expect them to run alot more.

 
The first thing that jumps out from the 4 you listed that broke out last year is their QB, Romo, Favre, and Brees will make their top targets good FF options. MSW was a guy many of us thought had the talent but he hadn't shown it yet, Garrard isn't a bad QB but clearly not in the same league as those 3. So I look for WRs who can creep up the chain with top QBs or guys whose talent can bring them up but for whatever reason have slipped.

First screen I use is to eliminate those with below average QBs:

Mario Manningham NYG WR 52

Devin Thomas WAS WR 54

Chaz Schilens OAK WR 55

Golden Tate SEA WR 58

Bernard Berrian MIN WR 59

Kevin Walter HOU WR 63

Roy Williams DAL WR 64

Jacoby Jones HOU WR 65

Devery Henderson NO WR 67

James Jones GB WR 72

Louis Murphy OAK WR 73

Legedu Naanee SD WR 76

Davone Bess MIA WR 77

Lance Moore NO WR 79

Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK WR 80

Brian Hartline MIA WR 81

Jason Avant PHI WR 82

Brandon Tate NE WR 83

Michael Jenkins ATL WR 84

Malcolm Kelly WAS WR 87

Now, let's take it one step further and eliminate those that don't have the benefit of playing with an elite QB (I'm keeping McNabb and Ryan in for now):

Devin Thomas WAS WR 54

Bernard Berrian MIN WR 59

Kevin Walter HOU WR 63

Roy Williams DAL WR 64

Jacoby Jones HOU WR 65

Devery Henderson NO WR 67

James Jones GB WR 72

Legedu Naanee SD WR 76

Lance Moore NO WR 79

Brandon Tate NE WR 83

Michael Jenkins ATL WR 84

Malcolm Kelly WAS WR 87

Now, who has the talent to step up?

Devin Thomas WAS WR 54

Jacoby Jones HOU WR 65

Devery Henderson NO WR 67

James Jones GB WR 72

Lance Moore NO WR 79

Brandon Tate NE WR 83

Of these, who has a path to be a top 3 target on the team without injury?

Devin Thomas WAS WR 54

Jacoby Jones HOU WR 65

Brandon Tate NE WR 83

Those are the 3 I'm targeting. FWIW, on Tate, I'm believing that Edelman takes a back seat once Welker returns.

 
Chaz Schilens OAK WR 55 (if he's healthy)

Chris Chambers KC WR 56 (maybe not top 35, but he'll finish ahead of this IMO)

Jabar Gaffney DEN WR 60 (if Thomas isn't ready)

Terrell Owens CIN WR 62 (maybe a layup now for top 40 or so)

Legedu Naanee SD WR 76 (if VJax misses the whole year I like Naanee better than Floyd)

Brian Robiskie CLE WR 78 (worth watching if Delhomme's arm was surgically reattached)

 
TO should probably be eliminated from the list with his signing today. His ADP will certainly jump into the top 50 WR's.

 
Manningham also did this last year, finishing WR28 while only playing in 14 games.

Brandon Tate NE WR 83
Click to expand...
I like Tate, but I see him as one of the least likely candidates from this list for the top 35 this year. Out of the 4540 yards the Patriots threw for last year, all but 1320 of them went to Moss, Welker, and the RBs. I can see TE production taking a backslide this year since they'll be rookies, but Tate would have to really distinguish himself very early in the year to sniff 700-800 yards with Edelman and Holt still on the roster. That's likely around the minimum yardage a guy would need to make top 35.My favorites:

Jabar Gaffney DEN WR 60

Jacoby Jones HOU WR 65

Laurent Robinson STL WR 74

Legedu Naanee SD WR 76

Gaffney - Not a special talent, but as has been said almost too much on these boards, the situation is ideal. This line of thinking led to Roy Williams getting drafted as #1 last year, so it's got some risk to it, but Eddie Royal looked so utterly lost in McDaniels' offense last year and Demaryius Thomas did nothing but run go routes in college. I think Gaffney has great odds for an 800-900 yard season with a handful of TDs.

Jacoby Jones - Fast, big, and already flashing the big-play ability. This is the kind of guy a good offseason can really help. I think he sees the field more and has a great chance at taking the #2 job soon.

Robinson - Love his talent. He has the size and hands to be the guy Bradford locks onto, which could mean a lot of yardage if he proves to be any good.

Naanee - Somebody's getting a shot if V. Jackson isn't around. A starting WR with Rivers throwing to him is a bona fide sleeper.

I like the vets, too--Berrian, Roy, any Saint--because they have the chance to be excellent if just one WR ahead of them in the pecking order gets hurt, but I'd still probably take any of the four above before them because I see a clearer path to numbers.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Mohamed Massaquoi CLE

I started a thread months ago on him being a sleeper and here is why.....

Massaquoi was a second round selection by the Browns at 2.18 last year and ended up having a suprising roookie season with 34 catches, for 624 yards and 3 tds.

Massaquoi was targetted 95 times last year as a rookie in an offense that at times looked like one of the worst passing offenses in league history. The QB play was attrocious and has left a bad taste in the minds of fantasy owners everywhere.

Now it is tough for many to see Delhomme/Wallace combo as an upgrade, but in actuality it will be an upgrade for sure. The upgrade won't be enough to make Delhomme/Wallace startable in fantasy but it may allow for Massaquoi to enter WR 3 territory and perhaps with some luck maybe even WR 2 territory.

Massa has nice size at 6'2 and deceptive speed. He ran a 4.57 40 time at the combine which is not blazing but is adequate enough to run by defenders. He did have an 18.4 average which shows he has big play ability.

Massa's problem was inconsitency last year, but what rookie WR would not struggle wtih inconsistency in an offense that was being lead by QB's that were playing at such a low level. The Quinn/Anderson combo was dreadful yet still Massa showed flashes of a game changing ability and that he can be a good WR in the NFL.

Massa can solitify being a good player for a long time with a solid sophmore year. Holmgren/Mangini brought in 2 new QB's, a new RB and are making changes on the defensive side of the ball even saying Jackson can lose his job at LB. But what they did not do was make any changes at the WR position. No one was brought in and besides saying Cribbs will touch the ball more there is little standing in front of Massa having a nice year. The team is showing confidence in letting their young WR's develop and contribute to this team going forward.

Massa is in line to get 100 plus targets and although Cleveland won't morph into this amazing passing team he should be on fantasy radars as a late rough flier. Massa was not some 6th round come out of no where WR last year. He has talent (a 2nd round pick), beat our fellow rookie WR Robiskie also a 2nd round pick and showed glimpses of good play in an inept offense.

Massa's senior year was very good with the Bulldog's as he had 58 catches for 920 yards and 8 td's. It was over shadowed though by Stafford and Moreno being such good prospects and then A.J. Green having a very good rookie year with 58 catches for 963 yards and 8 td's.

Massa in dynasty can be had for cheap and in redraft he could be worth a late round flier

 
There's a lot of talent here that doesn't have the short term ceiling due to opportunity, injuries could change that but it isn't something I'd gamble on. Guys with the best opportunity (complimentary threat on pass-heavy offense or guy buried who could emerge as #1) are James Jones, Chaz Schilens, Laurent Robinson, Golden Tate (not buying), Dexter McCluster, and Jacoby Jones. I want to say Mike Thomas, but he doesn't really fit either criteria.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
FUBAR said:
The first thing that jumps out from the 4 you listed that broke out last year is their QB, Romo, Favre, and Brees will make their top targets good FF options. MSW was a guy many of us thought had the talent but he hadn't shown it yet, Garrard isn't a bad QB but clearly not in the same league as those 3. So I look for WRs who can creep up the chain with top QBs or guys whose talent can bring them up but for whatever reason have slipped.

First screen I use is to eliminate those with below average QBs:

Mario Manningham NYG WR 52

Devin Thomas WAS WR 54

Chaz Schilens OAK WR 55

Golden Tate SEA WR 58

Bernard Berrian MIN WR 59

Kevin Walter HOU WR 63

Roy Williams DAL WR 64

Jacoby Jones HOU WR 65

Devery Henderson NO WR 67

James Jones GB WR 72

Louis Murphy OAK WR 73

Legedu Naanee SD WR 76

Davone Bess MIA WR 77

Lance Moore NO WR 79

Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK WR 80

Brian Hartline MIA WR 81

Jason Avant PHI WR 82

Brandon Tate NE WR 83

Michael Jenkins ATL WR 84

Malcolm Kelly WAS WR 87

Now, let's take it one step further and eliminate those that don't have the benefit of playing with an elite QB (I'm keeping McNabb and Ryan in for now):

Devin Thomas WAS WR 54

Bernard Berrian MIN WR 59

Kevin Walter HOU WR 63

Roy Williams DAL WR 64

Jacoby Jones HOU WR 65

Devery Henderson NO WR 67

James Jones GB WR 72

Legedu Naanee SD WR 76

Lance Moore NO WR 79

Brandon Tate NE WR 83

Michael Jenkins ATL WR 84

Malcolm Kelly WAS WR 87

Now, who has the talent to step up?

Devin Thomas WAS WR 54

Jacoby Jones HOU WR 65

Devery Henderson NO WR 67

James Jones GB WR 72

Lance Moore NO WR 79

Brandon Tate NE WR 83

Of these, who has a path to be a top 3 target on the team without injury?

Devin Thomas WAS WR 54

Jacoby Jones HOU WR 65

Brandon Tate NE WR 83

Those are the 3 I'm targeting. FWIW, on Tate, I'm believing that Edelman takes a back seat once Welker returns.
Click to expand...
You forgot some guys.
 
Big fan of Laurent Robinson. If he stays healthy for all 16 games, he's got the goods to be the Rams #1 WR this year.

 
1. Jacoby Jones

2. Schilens

3. Mike Thomas

4. Laurant Robinson

5. DHB

Would love to say Brandon Tate also but I think he will show up next year.

 
ceo3west said:
Mohamed Massaquoi CLE WR 51

Mario Manningham NYG WR 52

Dexter McCluster KC WR 53

Devin Thomas WAS WR 54

Chaz Schilens OAK WR 55

Chris Chambers KC WR 56

Josh Cribbs CLE WR 57

Golden Tate SEA WR 58

Bernard Berrian MIN WR 59

Jabar Gaffney DEN WR 60

Nate Burleson DET WR 61

Terrell Owens CIN WR 62

Kevin Walter HOU WR 63

Roy Williams DAL WR 64

Jacoby Jones HOU WR 65

Arrelious Benn TB WR 66

Devery Henderson NO WR 67

Early Doucet ARI WR 68

Mike Thomas JAX WR 69

Nate Washington TEN WR 70

Mike Williams TB WR 71

James Jones GB WR 72

Louis Murphy OAK WR 73

Laurent Robinson STL WR 74

Josh Morgan SF WR 75

Legedu Naanee SD WR 76

Davone Bess MIA WR 77

Brian Robiskie CLE WR 78

Lance Moore NO WR 79

Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK WR 80

Brian Hartline MIA WR 81

Jason Avant PHI WR 82

Brandon Tate NE WR 83

Michael Jenkins ATL WR 84

Steve Johnson BUF WR 85

Brandon LaFell CAR WR 86

Malcolm Kelly WAS WR 87
Click to expand...
Bolded are my best bets, and guys that I will be targetting.
 
This would be my short list....that isn't very short.

Dexter McCluster KC WR 53

Devin Thomas WAS WR 54

Jabar Gaffney DEN WR 60

Terrell Owens CIN WR 62

Jacoby Jones HOU WR 65

James Jones GB WR 72

Legedu Naanee SD WR 76

Brian Robiskie CLE WR 78

Lance Moore NO WR 79

Brandon Tate NE WR 83

Out of the above, the WR's I see with the best upside and as little impediment to significant playing time as is possible would be:

Jabar Gaffney DEN WR 60

Legedu Naanee SD WR 76

Brian Robiskie CLE WR 78

Brandon Tate NE WR 83

 
Mario Manningham: He's still learning the game, he finished around WR30 last year and his QB should throw around 4k this year. He's definately under the radar in most leagues and not much difference between him and Nicks.

Chris Chambers: He outplayed Bowe last season and surprised me. If Bowe continues to be a bum, Chris Chambers could take advantage of that and post some decent numbers on a team that doesn't play much defense.

Terell Owens: I think he's the best WR on Cinci, his ADP will be shooting up inside the top 50 now. If you had a draft and didn't take him before No. 50 shame on you, like he wasn't going to sign somewhere. For his kind of talent, it's worth taking a shot after the top 40 WR's are off the board.

 
Mohamed Massaquoi CLE WR 51

Mario Manningham NYG WR 52

Dexter McCluster KC WR 53

Devin Thomas WAS WR 54

Chaz Schilens OAK WR 55

Chris Chambers KC WR 56

Josh Cribbs CLE WR 57

Golden Tate SEA WR 58

Bernard Berrian MIN WR 59

Jabar Gaffney DEN WR 60

Nate Burleson DET WR 61

Kevin Walter HOU WR 63

Roy Williams DAL WR 64

Jacoby Jones HOU WR 65

Arrelious Benn TB WR 66

Devery Henderson NO WR 67

Early Doucet ARI WR 68

Mike Thomas JAX WR 69

Nate Washington TEN WR 70

Mike Williams TB WR 71

James Jones GB WR 72

Louis Murphy OAK WR 73

Laurent Robinson STL WR 74

Josh Morgan SF WR 75

Legedu Naanee SD WR 76

Davone Bess MIA WR 77

Brian Robiskie CLE WR 78

Lance Moore NO WR 79

Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK WR 80

Brian Hartline MIA WR 81

Jason Avant PHI WR 82

Brandon Tate NE WR 83

Michael Jenkins ATL WR 84

Steve Johnson BUF WR 85

Brandon LaFell CAR WR 86

Malcolm Kelly WAS WR 87

My not so short list.

 
Gaffney jumps off the page at me. Many of the others need something to break right to get the opportunity but Gaffney is in the catbirds seat with a bunch of talented but unproven rookies.

 
We Tigers said:
Manningham also did this last year, finishing WR28 while only playing in 14 games.
Click to expand...
Not sure how I missed him. That makes FIVE WR's beyond WR50 that finished top 35. Of the five last year, I'd bet in 90% of leagues (redraft) most if not all 5 were picked up off the waiver wire. That's why drafting one or two of these guys is huge - you beat everyone to the wire.. I'll end up targeting all 4 of my picks late (plus mabey one or two more that I like from the list if I don't get all 4) and I'll hope I hit on 1 or 2 of them.
 
Since you haven't been paying attention or decided to do any research before you made this pst you also missed,

Mike Wallace and Austin Collie in non PPR bringing that total up to SEVEN.

If you want to look at PPR since you didn't specify the format, Nate Burelson and Devon Bess can be added to the list kocking out a few players who were taken in the top 50 last year, bringing the total to NINE!

They may not be as amazing as the others but Collie and Wallace helped some in their finals while Burelson and Bess plodded out points for others.

Took me 5 min to actually check a list of stats and ADP!

(if you want you could spend time looking at players taken in the top 35 who did not make it and decide who will suffer a similar fate this year.)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
kitsnow said:
Since you haven't been paying attention or decided to do any research before you made this pst you also missed,Mike Wallace and Austin Collie in non PPR bringing that total up to SEVEN.If you want to look at PPR since you didn't specify the format, Nate Burelson and Devon Bess can be added to the list kocking out a few players who were taken in the top 50 last year, bringing the total to NINE!They may not be as amazing as the others but Collie and Wallace helped some in their finals while Burelson and Bess plodded out points for others.Took me 5 min to actually check a list of stats and ADP!(if you want you could spend time looking at players taken in the top 35 who did not make it and decide who will suffer a similar fate this year.)
Click to expand...
I only looked at players that were drafted - see the ADP list from the thread last year. The point is to realistically find players who will crack the top 35 out of players who are actually being drafted. Good luck trying to find guys landing in the top 35 who aren't even being drafted.And I specified format in a later post.ETA: This actually disqualifies Manningham as well which is why I didn't have him on the list earlier. That makes the total number of drafted WR's beyond the top 50 four. Again, WR's that are not drafted are next to impossible to predict.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
kitsnow said:
Since you haven't been paying attention or decided to do any research before you made this pst you also missed,Mike Wallace and Austin Collie in non PPR bringing that total up to SEVEN.If you want to look at PPR since you didn't specify the format, Nate Burelson and Devon Bess can be added to the list kocking out a few players who were taken in the top 50 last year, bringing the total to NINE!They may not be as amazing as the others but Collie and Wallace helped some in their finals while Burelson and Bess plodded out points for others.Took me 5 min to actually check a list of stats and ADP!(if you want you could spend time looking at players taken in the top 35 who did not make it and decide who will suffer a similar fate this year.)
Click to expand...
Stop being such a tool.
 
ceo3west said:
Devin Thomas WAS WR 54Jabar Gaffney DEN WR 60James Jones GB WR 72Louis Murphy OAK WR 73
Click to expand...
If we are picking 4 these are my "best bets" although I do like a few others as well.Devin Thomas has shown flashes of the talent that earned him a second round draft selection and is now playing with a Pro Bowl caliber QB in an offense that has proven to be one where a WR can thrive.Jabar Gaffney has always been a solid dependable pro who seized his late season opportunity last year. He shoudl be Orton's go to guy this year as McDaniels gives him the opportunity for playing time.James Jones is playing in a prolific offense and is running behind a 35 year old WR coming off bilateral knee surgeries. Great run after the catch abilities.Louis Murphy showed great deep ball ability and now has a QB that should be more consistent than the dregs of 2009.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

T
Which division would win?
Replies
0
Views
143
travdogg
T
T
Travdogg's final 2025 mock draft (3 rounds) (post draft grades on page 2)
2
Replies
68
Views
3K
BassNBrew
BassNBrew
Lansdowne
"Team X prefers Player Y because they drafted him ahead of Player Z, so you should too"
Replies
21
Views
1K
Gally
G

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top