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Looking for guys that will outperform their ADP's? (1 Viewer)

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Footballguy
The new pariahs of Fantasy Football are older WR's. Despite consistent - even improved- production from many of the old guard, these guys continue to fall in drafts as the Nate Burleson's, Andre Johnson's and Reggie Brown's of the world move up the rankings. You can count on most, if not all, of these guys to outperform their ADP's this year.

1) Joe Horn: Age - 34: With improved QB play and a potent two-headed running game, Horn is suddenly in a potentially explosive offense. To make matters even more interesting, they traded the only other established WR on the roster. Who else is going to catch passes on this team (except for Reggie Bush)? Devery Henderson still isnt close to making a difference. With an ADP of 5.6 (WR #20), I think Horn is going about a round too late. Sure, people are scared by his age and nagging injuries, but the team obviously still has faith in him based on their current roster makeup. I think he will land in the top 15, and may even sneak into the top 12.

2) Joey Galloway: Age - 34: Galloway put up top 8-10 numbers last year yet he still falls regularly into round five or six. He draws so little attention that people dont even talk about him in threads. Hes still super fast and has turned into an excellent red-zone threat. Whats not to like? That hes 32? With an ADP of 6.1, hes going about 1-2 rounds too late, IMO.

3) Issac Bruce: Age - 33: Injuries slowed him down last year, but hes still a starting at WR on a potent Rams offense. Moreover, hes just one year removed from a 1300 yard season. Keep and eye on his hamstring; as long as it holds up, his current ADP is 10.11, or WR40, is baffling. :shrug:

4) Eddie Kennison: Age - 33: He's still the #1 WR on a Fanatsy Juggernaut. Plus, in recent years, hes become a MUCH more consistent fanatsy performer. His ADP is 8.7 and WR #30 :shock:

5) Terry Glenn: Age - 32: His situation is somewhat different from the others, since the arrival of TO clouds the picture in Dallas. Still. hes developed a great relationship with Drew Bledsoe and they work hard to get him the ball (screens, reverses, etc). Coming off an 1100 yard season, he was available in my draft today late into the 10th round. While its not a slam dunk that he will outperform his ADP, he still represents nice value and should at the very least live upto his draft position.

One other guy that bares mentioning here is Mushin Muhhammed. I dont have him on the list because the Bears still have QB issues. Having said that, it wouldnt surprise me Greise takes over for Grossman at some point in the year. If that happens, Mushin could be a GREAT value in the second half of the season.

 
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1) Joe Horn: Age - 34: With improved QB play and a potent two-headed running game, Horn is suddenly in a potentially explosive offense. To make matters even more interesting, they traded the only other established WR on the roster. Who else is going to catch passes on this team (except for Reggie Bush)? Devery Henderson still isnt close to making a difference. With an ADP of 5.6 (WR #20), I think Horn is going about a round too late. Sure, people are scared by his age and nagging injuries, but the team obviously still has faith in him based on their current roster makeup. I think he will land in the top 15, and may even sneak into the top 12.
I agree that's very possible (though I have serious doubts), but 5th round sounds about right, if my auction-leagues-only memory serves that is.
2) Joey Galloway: Age - 32: Galloway put up top 8-10 numbers last year yet he still falls regularly into round five or six. He draws so little attention that people dont even talk about him in threads. Hes still super fast and has turned into an excellent red-zone threat. Whats not to like?
Review his career and get back to us. That was his swan song. And yeah let's not pretend age doesn't matter, esp to a guy who relies so much on speed.
3) Issac Bruce: Age - 33: Injuries slowed down last year, but hes still a starting at WR on a potent Rams offense. Moreover, hes just one year removed from a 1300 yard season. Keep and eye on his hamstring; as long as it holds up, his current ADP is 10.11, or WR40, is baffling.
Given his injury issue(s) and age, plus guys like Curtis and McDonald proving their worth last year (to say nothing of it being a matter of time till Bulger is out) and I'd say it depends on how lucky you feel w/him. 10th round draft pick will either end up a waste of a pick or a steal.
5) Terry Glenn: Age - 32: His situation is somewhat different from the others, since the arrival of TO clouds the picture in Dallas. Still. hes developed a great relationship with Drew Bledsoe and they work hard to get him the ball (screens, reverses, etc). Coming off an 1100 yard season, he was available in my draft today late into the 10th round. While its not a slam dunk that he will outperform his ADP, he still represents nice value and should at the very least live upto his draft position.
This is a tough call IMO, too hard to say whether Owens will hurt him a lot by cutting into his numbers, or help him because they will score/move downfield a lot more, will Owens pull his inevitable loserville move this year or wait a year, etc etc. Plus I usually go with a WR who is the #1 target on his team vs a #2, even on a better team.
 
1) Joe Horn: Age - 34: With improved QB play and a potent two-headed running game, Horn is suddenly in a potentially explosive offense. To make matters even more interesting, they traded the only other established WR on the roster. Who else is going to catch passes on this team (except for Reggie Bush)? Devery Henderson still isnt close to making a difference. With an ADP of 5.6 (WR #20), I think Horn is going about a round too late. Sure, people are scared by his age and nagging injuries, but the team obviously still has faith in him based on their current roster makeup. I think he will land in the top 15, and may even sneak into the top 12.
I agree that's very possible (though I have serious doubts), but 5th round sounds about right, if my auction-leagues-only memory serves that is.
2) Joey Galloway: Age - 32: Galloway put up top 8-10 numbers last year yet he still falls regularly into round five or six. He draws so little attention that people dont even talk about him in threads. Hes still super fast and has turned into an excellent red-zone threat. Whats not to like?
Review his career and get back to us. That was his swan song. And yeah let's not pretend age doesn't matter, esp to a guy who relies so much on speed.
3) Issac Bruce: Age - 33: Injuries slowed down last year, but hes still a starting at WR on a potent Rams offense. Moreover, hes just one year removed from a 1300 yard season. Keep and eye on his hamstring; as long as it holds up, his current ADP is 10.11, or WR40, is baffling.
Given his injury issue(s) and age, plus guys like Curtis and McDonald proving their worth last year (to say nothing of it being a matter of time till Bulger is out) and I'd say it depends on how lucky you feel w/him. 10th round draft pick will either end up a waste of a pick or a steal.
5) Terry Glenn: Age - 32: His situation is somewhat different from the others, since the arrival of TO clouds the picture in Dallas. Still. hes developed a great relationship with Drew Bledsoe and they work hard to get him the ball (screens, reverses, etc). Coming off an 1100 yard season, he was available in my draft today late into the 10th round. While its not a slam dunk that he will outperform his ADP, he still represents nice value and should at the very least live upto his draft position.
This is a tough call IMO, too hard to say whether Owens will hurt him a lot by cutting into his numbers, or help him because they will score/move downfield a lot more, will Owens pull his inevitable loserville move this year or wait a year, etc etc. Plus I usually go with a WR who is the #1 target on his team vs a #2, even on a better team.
Regarding Galloway, last year wasnt a flash in the pan. He finished 2004 with a string of TD's in the last six games and maintained that production throughout 2005. And its not like they didnt have anyone else to throw the ball to last year - Galloway essentially stunted he growth of Michael Clayton, who seemed like a perennial all-pro just a year earlier. I also dont believe that his age has slowed him down. Hes still one of the fastest players on the field.
 
I grabbed Horn and Galloway in 12 teamer at 4.12 and 5.01. Both can be top 10 WR's this season and one of them will for sure in my eye's.

 
I have the world's most boring WR core:

1. Donald Driver

2. Derrick Mason

3. Rod Smith

4. Issac Bruce

5. Bobby Engram

Anyhow, I think Smith, who I took in the 7th, and Bruce, in the 10th, represented excellent value. I see zero reason why Smith won't put up another 1000/6 and then some, particularly with Walker around to prevent him from being double teamed.

 
1) Joe Horn: Age - 34: With improved QB play and a potent two-headed running game, Horn is suddenly in a potentially explosive offense. To make matters even more interesting, they traded the only other established WR on the roster. Who else is going to catch passes on this team (except for Reggie Bush)? Devery Henderson still isnt close to making a difference. With an ADP of 5.6 (WR #20), I think Horn is going about a round too late. Sure, people are scared by his age and nagging injuries, but the team obviously still has faith in him based on their current roster makeup. I think he will land in the top 15, and may even sneak into the top 12.
I agree that's very possible (though I have serious doubts), but 5th round sounds about right, if my auction-leagues-only memory serves that is.
2) Joey Galloway: Age - 32: Galloway put up top 8-10 numbers last year yet he still falls regularly into round five or six. He draws so little attention that people dont even talk about him in threads. Hes still super fast and has turned into an excellent red-zone threat. Whats not to like?
Review his career and get back to us. That was his swan song. And yeah let's not pretend age doesn't matter, esp to a guy who relies so much on speed.
3) Issac Bruce: Age - 33: Injuries slowed down last year, but hes still a starting at WR on a potent Rams offense. Moreover, hes just one year removed from a 1300 yard season. Keep and eye on his hamstring; as long as it holds up, his current ADP is 10.11, or WR40, is baffling.
Given his injury issue(s) and age, plus guys like Curtis and McDonald proving their worth last year (to say nothing of it being a matter of time till Bulger is out) and I'd say it depends on how lucky you feel w/him. 10th round draft pick will either end up a waste of a pick or a steal.
5) Terry Glenn: Age - 32: His situation is somewhat different from the others, since the arrival of TO clouds the picture in Dallas. Still. hes developed a great relationship with Drew Bledsoe and they work hard to get him the ball (screens, reverses, etc). Coming off an 1100 yard season, he was available in my draft today late into the 10th round. While its not a slam dunk that he will outperform his ADP, he still represents nice value and should at the very least live upto his draft position.
This is a tough call IMO, too hard to say whether Owens will hurt him a lot by cutting into his numbers, or help him because they will score/move downfield a lot more, will Owens pull his inevitable loserville move this year or wait a year, etc etc. Plus I usually go with a WR who is the #1 target on his team vs a #2, even on a better team.
Regarding Galloway, last year wasnt a flash in the pan. He finished 2004 with a string of TD's in the last six games and maintained that production throughout 2005. And its not like they didnt have anyone else to throw the ball to last year - Galloway essentially stunted he growth of Michael Clayton, who seemed like a perennial all-pro just a year earlier. I also dont believe that his age has slowed him down. Hes still one of the fastest players on the field.
I like Galloway too, but I think nagging injuries probably had more to do with Clayton's drop off.
 
Don't forget Rod Smith.
Ya, probably want Rod the Bod where he's going over these guys. Glenn is close though. Kennison is good value too.Clayton is representing better value than Galloway in drafts I've been at, so that would be my main negative towards Galloway (and he had a career year).
 
Don't forget Rod Smith.
Ya, probably want Rod the Bod where he's going over these guys. Glenn is close though. Kennison is good value too.Clayton is representing better value than Galloway in drafts I've been at, so that would be my main negative towards Galloway (and he had a career year).
I like Rod Smith too, but his ADP is early 7th round, WR24. Thats exactly where it should be, imo. Some of the other guys (Kennison, Glenn) are putting up the same numbers but are being drafted much lower.
 
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I like Terry Glenn even with TO there. Terry would be a good #1 recievers for most NFL teams, with TO attracting double coverage, Terry will be able to get open and will be Bledsoe's go to guy. Terry will have more catches than TO, and perhaps even more yards. Terry is way undervalued.

 
I have the world's most boring WR core:1. Donald Driver2. Derrick Mason3. Rod Smith4. Issac Bruce5. Bobby EngramAnyhow, I think Smith, who I took in the 7th, and Bruce, in the 10th, represented excellent value. I see zero reason why Smith won't put up another 1000/6 and then some, particularly with Walker around to prevent him from being double teamed.
Dontcha hate when there's no one to get excited about? Driver will probably have some real good days, but everyone else will just put on their hardhat and go to work for you in aPPR league.
 
Don't forget Rod Smith.
Ya, probably want Rod the Bod where he's going over these guys. Glenn is close though. Kennison is good value too.Clayton is representing better value than Galloway in drafts I've been at, so that would be my main negative towards Galloway (and he had a career year).
I like Rod Smith too, but his ADP is early 7th round, WR24. The other guys are simply being drafted too low.
FWIW, in my recent auction Smith went for less than Galloway, Horn, Glenn, and Kennison.
 
I like Terry Glenn even with TO there. Terry would be a good #1 recievers for most NFL teams, with TO attracting double coverage, Terry will be able to get open and will be Bledsoe's go to guy. Terry will have more catches than TO, and perhaps even more yards. Terry is way undervalued.
From a pure football perspective, Glenn LOOKED phenomenal last season. Given the obsession with statistics on the board, people often forget about how the players play. ANd there were several games last year where Glenn was simply the best player on the field. I dont think that was lost on Parcells.
 
I like Terry Glenn even with TO there. Terry would be a good #1 recievers for most NFL teams, with TO attracting double coverage, Terry will be able to get open and will be Bledsoe's go to guy. Terry will have more catches than TO, and perhaps even more yards. Terry is way undervalued.
From a pure football perspective, Glenn LOOKED phenomenal last season. Given the obsession with statistics on the board, people often forget about how the players play. ANd there were several games last year where Glenn was simply the best player on the field. I dont think that was lost on Parcells.
Not to mention Drew and Terry have been playing with each other (that doesn't sound right) for many seasons so their chemistry is obviously down pat. I read a quote from Drew in the off-season something to the effect that he has yet to see a cornerback that can cover him one on one. High praise and it gives you an insight into how Drew views him.
 
I have the world's most boring WR core:1. Donald Driver2. Derrick Mason3. Rod Smith4. Issac Bruce5. Bobby EngramAnyhow, I think Smith, who I took in the 7th, and Bruce, in the 10th, represented excellent value. I see zero reason why Smith won't put up another 1000/6 and then some, particularly with Walker around to prevent him from being double teamed.
and you will do well with those WRs
 
I ALWAYS picked the wrong week to start Kennison last season.
:confused: Unless you have a start 1 WR league or you have great WRs, I see no reason why he shouldn't be in you lineup every week. According to FBGs, he was ranked #24 in 2003, #18 in 2004 (in 14 games) and #18 in 2005.Kennison has 11 100+ total yard games in the past 2 years (30 games), or a little more than 1 every 3 games. Not bad for a WR going that late. To put that in perspective, Boldin has 11 100+ total yard games in the past 2 years (26 games). Not trying to say Kennison is as good, he isn't, but I just took Boldin since I think he has pretty much been a stud and will be drafted way earlier.Kennison has been a WR2 for the past 3 years and a good WR2 the last 2 years. With a guy like Kennison, outguessing yourself is a bad thing. He is not a Torry Holt in terms of consistency, but he has been good enough that you should play him every week.
 
I always go minimal WR in my drafts because I always find WR gems discarded in the lower mid rounds, if not the low rounds outright. Last year I took Rod Smith in round 8, Donte Stallworth in round 10, and Joey Galloway in round 14.

This year I have Galloway in round 6, Housh in round 7, Isaac Bruce in round 11, and Givens in round 12. I'll probably have good value again somewhere in there.

 
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I always go minimal WR in my drafts because I always find WR gems discarded in the lower mid rounds, if not the low rounds outright. Last year I took Rod Smith in round 8, Donte Stallworth in round 10, and Joey Galloway in round 14.
Same here.. If there's good value in the 2nd for a guy like Holt or CJ, I'll take him. But otherwise I don't even think about WRs until the mid to late rounds. Smith is definitely my favorite old guy, especially in PPR.
 

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