Looking to exploit defensive matchups (1 Viewer)

[Dirty Weasel]

I tried to start some discussion on this earlier, but I'll see if a poll will get more responses. I know many FF'ers like to play DBC (Defense By Committee), but it doesn't do much good if you can't decide which teams you are targeting as teams that will surrender the most FF points.

 

[thecardiackid]

I was there with you... not that it helped the cause much.

Added GB as "other" w/ Favre's INT's and the unproven run game in GB.

I think this combo has some potential, but I didn't evaluate the entire grid.

<paste from former DTBC post>

Maybe it's still too early for a DTBC discussion, but for all you dynasty drafters - here's one I've targeted after looking @ the 07 grid. NOTE: I'm sort of backing into this pairing after already taking MN in R22/25, but I think this one has some potential for the upcoming season. Before you call me consider this...

Comments:

MN - The best run D in the NFL last year. That might be due to the fact that they were not so great vs. the pass, but they have (arguably) the best pair of DTs in the league - run stopping wise anyway. They were near the top of the league in takeaways, added former IND safety M Doss, and get last years 1st round pick (LB Greenway) back after he was injured in TC. The issue will be can the Offense run the ball effectively, maintain drives, and keep the D off the field all game. I used them last year in a turnover / td heavy RBBC w/ the Jets - with decent results.

HOU - Average at best last year, around #24 overall. But, at least dynasty wise, they look like a unit that could show solid improvement over the next few seasons as several young players develop. They've spent 3/4 of their 1st/2nd round picks in the last 2 drafts on D. M Williams (#1 overall), D Ryans (D RoY) @ MLB, and this year w/ the 10th pick they went DT with Okoye. Yea, as a unit they have a lot to prove, but it's hard to argue the 'talent' isn't there. DBs are just OK, and turnover wise they're also average - based on last year. Pressure & sacks need to improve, but they seem to be going in the right direction. Upside = Carr is now gone - taking with him the countless sacks, stalled drives, and turnovers that helped to strain this D. I think Schaub & Green will (worst case) provide some stability and give the D some needed rest.

Now for the combined schedule ~

Week 1: HOU vs. KC (or) MN vs. ATL

Week 2: MN @ DET

Week 3: MN @ KC

Week 4: MN vs. GB

Week 5: HOU vs. MIA

Week 6: MN @ CHI (or) HOU @ JAX

Week 7: HOU vs TN

Week 8: MN vs. PHI *the worst matchup here*

Week 9: HOU @ OAK

Week 10: MN @ GB

Week 11: MN vs. OAK

Week 12: HOU @ CLE (or) MN @ NYG

Week 13: HOU @ TN (or) MN vs. DET

Week 14: MN @ SF (or) HOU vs. TB

Week 15: MN vs. CHI

Week 16: MN vs. WAS

Week 17: HOU vs. JAX (if anyone cares)

This is MN heavy, and I'm probably more bullish about playing vs. DET/MIA/TB/CHI/GB than others. During the playoff weeks - 3 home games vs. avg. offenses. It's not predictable @ this point, but a lot of these games look to be lower scoring - if you get points for pts. allowed.

OAK x 2, TN x 2, DET x 2, GB x 2, CHI x 2 - also w/ games vs. QBs w/ questions including KC, MIA, OAK, CLE, TN, SF, CHI, WAS. And, the option of 10/16 games @ home.

This is 'the poor man's' DTBC, but both are young / developing units on teams that should be improving over the next couple of years. If you don't have the stomach to pass on a TE or WR3 in the 8th round to get CHI or BAL, this pairing can be had VERY late.

 

[Riffraff]

Pick a defense playing against a first or second year starting QB each week.

Raiders might be a decent option as they were very good against the pass and get to play Rivers x2, Croyle/Huard x2, Cutler x2, Quinn/Frye, Green/Culpepper/Lemon, Young, Schaub, Grossman, Jackson, and Kitna/Favre turn the ball over plenty.

Can't complain about 14 decent match-ups.

 

[bigmurd]

Pick a defense playing against a first or second year starting QB each week.Raiders might be a decent option as they were very good against the pass and get to play Rivers x2, Croyle/Huard x2, Cutler x2, Quinn/Frye, Green/Culpepper/Lemon, Young, Schaub, Grossman, Jackson, and Kitna/Favre turn the ball over plenty.Can't complain about 14 decent match-ups.

I'm not sure playing against the San Diego O is particularly good news for a D.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Update - after 14 voters have chimed in, here are the results so far (giving 4 pts for a 1st place vote, 3 pts for 2nd place, 2 pts for 3rd place, and 1 pt for 4th place)...

Raiders 40

Browns 22

Titans 17

Vikings 14

Texans 13

Dolphins 11

Lions 9

Bills 5

Buccaneers 5

Cardinals 3

Packers 1

As I expected, the Raiders are pulling away with it.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

Bills, Bucs, Cards, 9ers, and maybe even the lions aren't O's I'd really wanna play against if given the option of those others..

 

[-OZ-]

Can you tell us the scoring you're using?

Are INTs more important than a low score?

How much does yardage matter?

I've seen scoring that ranges from pure points scored against (negative points, cannot use a team on a bye) to complicated systems where you actually want the opposing offense to stay on the field as you get points for tackles.

 

[Routilla]

Can you tell us the scoring you're using?Are INTs more important than a low score?How much does yardage matter?I've seen scoring that ranges from pure points scored against (negative points, cannot use a team on a bye) to complicated systems where you actually want the opposing offense to stay on the field as you get points for tackles.

It all depends on the system. Points allowed is a big deal in my league so using MIN and HOU would pretty much kill you over the course of a season. I would not advise using a DEF with a very young QB that has awful WRs(MIN). The DEF should wear down as the season continues. This could result in a nightmare by your league's playoff stretch.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Can you tell us the scoring you're using?

Are INTs more important than a low score?

How much does yardage matter?

I've seen scoring that ranges from pure points scored against (negative points, cannot use a team on a bye) to complicated systems where you actually want the opposing offense to stay on the field as you get points for tackles.

It all depends on the system. Points allowed is a big deal in my league so using MIN and HOU would pretty much kill you over the course of a season. I would not advise using a DEF with a very young QB that has awful WRs(MIN). The DEF should wear down as the season continues. This could result in a nightmare by your league's playoff stretch.

Very good point. Since I made the thread, I'll use the D scoring from my league as a guide....Fumble Recovery, INT, Sack, Safety, Blocked FG or EP 2pts

Interception Return Yards 1pt per 10 yds

Shutout 8pts

Total Net Yards Allowed 0-199 8pts

Total Net Yards Allowed 200-259 6pts

Total Net Yards Allowed 260-319 4pts

Total Net Yards Allowed 320-379 2pts

Defensive & Special Teams TDs 6pts

And as another guide, here is how many points each team gave up last year in my league...

2006 FF points given

Raiders 382

Browns 342

Lions 306

Steelers 303

Vikings 287

Bills 268

Bucs 260

Seahawks 256

Texans 245

49ers 237

Cardinals 225

Dolphins 223

Falcons 219

Broncos 219

Cowboys 218

Bears 218

Rams 210

Chiefs 206

Packers 204

Titans 204

Jaguars 203

Jets 200

Patriots 195

Panthers 193

Bengals 192

Eagles 181

Giants 180

Redskins 162

Saints 158

Ravens 143

Colts 131

Chargers 131

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I don't get the OAK votes - they're not a bad defense.

I took Cleveland, Tennessee, Detroit and Minnesota.

Start with the Top 5-10 draft picks from the 07 draft and see if they improved. If not, that's a good list for bad teams to exploit - usually.

Top 10 picks:

OAK -

DET -

CLE -

TB -

AZ -

WASH -

MIN -

ATL -

MIA -

HOU -

I added NYG and TEN to the list and took out OAK and MIA.

Here's the list of teams from 06 that gave up 350+ points:

San Francisco 412

Tennessee 400

Detroit 398

Arizona 389

St. Louis 381

Washington 376

Houston 366

Green Bay 366

N.Y. Giants 362

Indianapolis 360

Cleveland 356

Tampa Bay 353

Dallas 350

ATL has LB issues and their secondary isn't great either. They only gave up 328 points (20.5 PPG), but they also only scored 292.

TEN's defense is not going to be very good at all.

That gives you some idea of who to look at for this year.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I don't get the OAK votes - they're not a bad defense.

I took Cleveland, Tennessee, Detroit and Minnesota.

Start with the Top 5-10 draft picks from the 07 draft and see if they improved. If not, that's a good list for bad teams to exploit - usually.

Top 10 picks:

OAK -

DET -

CLE -

TB -

AZ -

WASH -

MIN -

ATL -

MIA -

HOU -

I added NYG and TEN to the list and took out OAK and MIA.

Here's the list of teams from 06 that gave up 350+ points:

San Francisco 412

Tennessee 400

Detroit 398

Arizona 389

St. Louis 381

Washington 376

Houston 366

Green Bay 366

N.Y. Giants 362

Indianapolis 360

Cleveland 356

Tampa Bay 353

Dallas 350

ATL has LB issues and their secondary isn't great either. They only gave up 328 points (20.5 PPG), but they also only scored 292.

TEN's defense is not going to be very good at all.

That gives you some idea of who to look at for this year.

Jeff,This thread is about teams that you want your FF D to start against. So, you need to be looking at the offenses for those teams, not the defenses. I think you may be misreading this thread.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

2nd update - after 28 voters have chimed in, here are the results so far (giving 4 pts for a 1st place vote, 3 pts for 2nd place, 2 pts for 3rd place, and 1 pt for 4th place)...

Raiders 73

Browns 56

Vikings 40

Titans 30

Buccaneers 24

Texans 20

Dolphins 14

Lions 13

Bills 11

49ers 4

Cardinals 3

Packers 1

The Raiders are still leading the charge, but the Browns are keeping up with 'em.

 

[jurb26]

Oak

TB

Tenn

Mia

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Jeff,This thread is about teams that you want your FF D to start against. So, you need to be looking at the offenses for those teams, not the defenses. I think you may be misreading this thread.

Apparently I'm just in your thread, messin' up the poles then....

 

[Dirty Weasel]

3rd update (and shameless bump)- after 37 voters have chimed in, here are the results so far (giving 4 pts for a 1st place vote, 3 pts for 2nd place, 2 pts for 3rd place, and 1 pt for 4th place)...

Raiders 91

Browns 55 (I mistakenly had them at 56 in my 2nd update)

Vikings 55

Buccaneers 37

Texans 36

Titans 35

Dolphins 20

Lions 20

Bills 12

49ers 4

Cardinals 3

Packers 1

The Raiders are pulling away with it. The top 6 votegetters all seem to have something in common. In 2006, they were the bottom 6 teams in terms of passing TD's.