Mark Ingram Spike?? (1 Viewer)

[LeadoffMan]

Anyone else notice how Mark Ingram vaulted up on the PPR Top 300 and the PPR Draft List?  He was significanly behind Alex Collins and is now ranked ahead of him. Looks like Collins only moved back a couple of spots.  What changed to warrant this?

 

[Elevencents]

I drafted him in 4 of 6 leagues. They must be watching...

 

[Truebluey]

Yes I noticed the same thing. I was comfortably getting him in round 5 in ppr 12-team snakes, now I sometimes miss on him late in round 4.  Folks are re-evaluating a RB1 last year, I guess, and valuing him higher as a result.

 

[bostonfred]

This stuff happens every single year.

In July everyone says look how deep running back is, you can get good backs in the 7th.

In August everyone says omg what happened the rookies that have jobs are moving up, the ones who don't are moving down, and the unsexy veterans who have jobs are moving up. 

It's 100 percent normal.  Ingram is one of the last guys on the board who you can confidently draft expecting starter level production. A round later you're getting guys who still haven't solidified jobs for week 1 or who are on the wrong side of a committee. 

This week you'll see guys like Hyde and Barber slide up a little more, second and third tier receivers dip down a little, injured backs like McKinnon slip a little further and the tight ends drop to the bottom of the new tiers because people want that last sure rb before they take their favorite tight ends.  

Literally every year.

 

[msudaisy26]

Agree with @bostonfred. Running backs are flying up the boards. Back in May you could wait until round 6 to take your 1st back and ended up Ajayi, and Collins as your 2 starters and still grabbed guys like Crowell and Lynch in round 8 - 10. Now all those guys have moved up. 

 

[matuski]

Literally 

 

[Team Smokin']

Love to have Ingram sitting on my bench. I watched him last a long time and recently coming down a round or two like you stated in your Spike!

That's a nasty duo together and both can get their share. 

 

[zamboni]

That's a nasty duo together and both can get their share. 

Agree based on last year, but I have concern that if Kamara really explodes the first four weeks, Ingram’s role will be much more diminished from last year.

 

[VikingFrog]

He’s very highly ranked on the Draft Dominator App. Does it not factor in his missing first 4 games?

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Agree based on last year, but I have concern that if Kamara really explodes the first four weeks, Ingram’s role will be much more diminished from last year.

I agree that Kamara's continued ascension could mean less reps for Ingram, but not to the point where it ruins his contribution as a solid RB2/flex. 

They know what they have in both players, and using them both ultimately helps keep them both healthy and performing. They have different skillsets, so Ingram will always have a sound role. 

Anything can happen, and Kamara has the kind of elite skills that a team could rely on as a 3-down back. I just think the team knows that they need to keep him healthy and fresh. Which means a really good floor for Ingram, IMO.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I wouldn’t touch him at his ADP. 

Yes, he’ll be valuable. 

He’ll also be out 5 weeks. 4 weeks suspension + BYE

So in a 14 week season you’re getting 9 games? 65%? Assuming he doesn’t get hurt ever, or fumble just once, that is. 

Remember - Ingram seems to find his way into Payton’s doghouse & if that happens he sits no matter how well he’s playing. 

And if you have a 13 week season, yeesh - that’s 38% of your games without him. 

And people are signing up for that in the 4-5 round? With so much talent on the board that’s crazy. 

I am also of the opinion that Brees TD numbers will increase this year, and conversely the rushing TDs will decrease between both Ingram & Kamara. It seemed a little flukey that Brees threw so few TDs given his efficiency. 

Seems like a ceiling for Ingram will be 8-9 games, maybe 6-7 TDS, with handful of receptions & maybe 800-Ish APY? 

I’d reach for Marshawn Lynch or Carlos Hyde in the 5th before I’d draft Ingram there. 

Thankful his stock is rising though - one more player on the board I don’t want to help the ones I do want slip to me. 

 

[matttyl]

I posted the following nearly a year ago today in the Ingram thread.....

"If you go back and look at last season, you'll see that the RBs in New Orleans, combined, had over 2,500 yards total, 126 catches and 27 TDs.  In 2015 they had 1,450 rushing yards from their RBs, with 1,034 receiving yards from 122 catches and a total of 18 TDs.  In 2014 it was 1,580 rushing yards with another 882 receiving on 120 catches with 16 total TDs. It's always around or over 2,500 yards with 120+ receptions and somewhere in the vicinity of 20 TDs (more TDs since they got rid of Graham, and now they've lost Cooks).  What I mean is that it's a pretty big total pie.  Say Ingram gets 45% of it (I think that's fair, and that's giving a lot to both a rookie and to an over the hill Peterson).  That's 1,125 yards from scrimmage, 54 receptions and 9 TDs.  Week to week, though, he could be all over the place (just like any WR would be).  If I can get that after the 5th round in a 12 teamer, sign me up all day long."

To add another year to this history, last year the Saints RBs had ~1,900 rushing yards, with another ~1,250 yards on 139 receptions (so well over 3k yards from scrimmage) and 25 total TDs.

Yet again the point is that the pie for New Orleans RBs has always been large enough for multiple RBs.  The last 3 year average has been 2,700+ yards total, ~130 catches, and 23 TDs.  Say Ingram is getting only 40% of that upon his return.  That's (prorated, I understand he's missing 4 games) a 1,000 yard season with ~50 catches and 9 TDs.  Yes, he'll miss 1/4 of that from his suspension - but I'm viewing him as a great backup as his missed games will be early, and he'll be there for you when your earlier drafted RBs have their byes, or should they get hurt. 

 

[NeverEnough]

Too bad his value has not gone up. I'm still much better off keeping him.

 

[matuski]

He’s very highly ranked on the Draft Dominator App. Does it not factor in his missing first 4 games?

RB 21-25 in my various scoring setups.  Higher than I'd hope to get him, but a price I wouldn't balk at.

 

[matuski]

I posted the following nearly a year ago today in the Ingram thread.....

"If you go back and look at last season, you'll see that the RBs in New Orleans, combined, had over 2,500 yards total, 126 catches and 27 TDs.  In 2015 they had 1,450 rushing yards from their RBs, with 1,034 receiving yards from 122 catches and a total of 18 TDs.  In 2014 it was 1,580 rushing yards with another 882 receiving on 120 catches with 16 total TDs. It's always around or over 2,500 yards with 120+ receptions and somewhere in the vicinity of 20 TDs (more TDs since they got rid of Graham, and now they've lost Cooks).  What I mean is that it's a pretty big total pie.  Say Ingram gets 45% of it (I think that's fair, and that's giving a lot to both a rookie and to an over the hill Peterson).  That's 1,125 yards from scrimmage, 54 receptions and 9 TDs.  Week to week, though, he could be all over the place (just like any WR would be).  If I can get that after the 5th round in a 12 teamer, sign me up all day long."

To add another year to this history, last year the Saints RBs had ~1,900 rushing yards, with another ~1,250 yards on 139 receptions (so well over 3k yards from scrimmage) and 25 total TDs.

Yet again the point is that the pie for New Orleans RBs has always been large enough for multiple RBs.  The last 3 year average has been 2,700+ yards total, ~130 catches, and 23 TDs.  Say Ingram is getting only 40% of that upon his return.  That's (prorated, I understand he's missing 4 games) a 1,000 yard season with ~50 catches and 9 TDs.  Yes, he'll miss 1/4 of that from his suspension - but I'm viewing him as a great backup as his missed games will be early, and he'll be there for you when your earlier drafted RBs have their byes, or should they get hurt. 

This ignores both factor that concern me.  Were the PEDs a factor in his performance, is Jonathan Williams going to earn a role?

 

[matttyl]

This ignores both factor that concern me.  Were the PEDs a factor in his performance, is Jonathan Williams going to earn a role?

Do we know for sure exactly what the PEDs were?  There was some speculation that it was ADHD related drugs, or am I thinking about someone else?  Were they really "performance enhancing" drugs?

Williams may earn a role the first four weeks, the question is if he's better than Ingram - or will he be better than a fresh Ingram in week 5?

 

[matuski]

Do we know for sure exactly what the PEDs were?  There was some speculation that it was ADHD related drugs, or am I thinking about someone else?  Were they really "performance enhancing" drugs?

Williams may earn a role the first four weeks, the question is if he's better than Ingram - or will he be better than a fresh Ingram in week 5?

His suspension is for PEDs.

He may or may not have blamed ADHD drugs.. but he was nailed for PEDs.

And the second is my question.. will Ingram be the same post PEDs?  Is non PED Ingram better than J Williams who by all accounts is killing it.

 

[matttyl]

He was "nailed" under the PED rules, but we don't actually know if it was for a PED.  You can get a DUI and not have had any alcohol in your system - sorta the same thing that could have happened to Ingram here.  Wasn't Robert Mathis busted under the PED rule, but was really just taking a fertility drug?

ETA = quote from his representative...."At the end of the 2017 season, as a result of a NFL mandated drug test, Mark Ingram tested positive for a substance that was not a performance-enhancing substance, but a substance in fact permissible with the proper use exemption with the NFL."

 

[Arodin]

He was "nailed" under the PED rules, but we don't actually know if it was for a PED.  You can get a DUI and not have had any alcohol in your system - sorta the same thing that could have happened to Ingram here.  Wasn't Robert Mathis busted under the PED rule, but was really just taking a fertility drug?

ETA = quote from his representative...."At the end of the 2017 season, as a result of a NFL mandated drug test, Mark Ingram tested positive for a substance that was not a performance-enhancing substance, but a substance in fact permissible with the proper use exemption with the NFL."

I don’t put a lot of stock in what the suspended player or his agent has to say, and the league isn’t allowed to reveal details of the failed test, so media often leaves us with a lopsided impression by presenting the one side that is loudly proclaiming innocence.

The one factual datapoint we get is whether the suspension is under the “performance enhancing” or “substances of abuse” policy.  A DUI would be under the latter.  So we know he had something in his sample that was marked as performance enhancing.  I find it hard to believe that the league and players’ association negotiated a list of PEDs that included things which were not in fact performance enhancing...

 

[zamboni]

Thoughts on dynasty value?

He’ll be an UFA after this year and could command a workhorse role somewhere else, but he’ll also be pushing 30 and has the suspension on his record.

 

[matttyl]

Thoughts on dynasty value?

He’ll be an UFA after this year and could command a workhorse role somewhere else, but he’ll also be pushing 30 and has the suspension on his record.

Quite a few potential big name FA RBs next year.  Bell, L Murray, Ingram, possibly Hyde. 

 

[menobrown]

.  Were the PEDs a factor in his performance

That's a valid concern I have both with him and Edelman. Both of them took PED's, that's not a debate, that's a fact. You take PED's to improve your performance and/or to recover quicker from injuries.

In Edelman's case I tend to think his main reason for taking PED's is that he is 32 years old trying to come back from a major injury. In his case I'm at least mildly concerned he felt the need to go that route to properly recover.   Ingram however seems like he is more likely to have taken PED's for performance enhancements and that's a bit of a concern for me that I'm not to quick to gloss over.  I mean if Ingram felt the need to risk suspension to take PED's it stands to reason he saw a benefit that made it worth the risk.

Other then PED's the other negative on Ingram is fact that on teams I own him I'm basically viewing him as out until week 7. That week 6 bye week is awful timing and makes me think a strong chance that with him returning to team after a month absence that he'll be lighthly used in week 5 and then they'll use the bye week to re-acclimate  him.

 

[menobrown]

Quite a few potential big name FA RBs next year.  Bell, L Murray, Ingram, possibly Hyde. 

I'm probably forgetting several RB's but off top of my head I'd add Tevin and Yeldon and say both could challenge him in terms of interest/guarantee's.

Thoughts on dynasty value?

He’ll be an UFA after this year and could command a workhorse role somewhere else, but he’ll also be pushing 30 and has the suspension on his record.

Here is where he might be thankful for what Sean Payton has done for his career. Limited his usage and helped his game evolve into a true three down skill set.

In terms of demand and money he has a lot of comp but I'd feel strongly that if he looks as good this year as last year he'll be able to secure a starters role if not workhorse role on a deal that might look longer term on paper but in reality is designed as a 2 year type deal with team options after. All in all unless it turns out he really needed the PED's I think his performance over next 3 years, one with Saints and two post-Nola, looks pretty promising.  On dynasty teams I own him I tend to view him as no worse then a solid RB2 for that time period. Of course situations matter and I suppose there are negative situations he could find himself, or incredible situations like if Steelers signed him to take over for Bell but I do at least trust him as a solid multi year asset at least.

 

[Team Smokin']

Another take on Ingram is picking him up and then being able to play him as a 2nd RB, even a potential #1, or placed in a Flex position... as long as a team has two quality, or at least, one bell cow, and another decent RB ONLY for the first 4 weeks. Then Ingram is plugged in except for the bye week.

You could end up with a Fournette type with an Ajayi or Dion Lewis type, then get Ingram in the 6th? Or would it be Fournette, Ingram (in the 5th) and a Hyde or Mack type?

Ingram's value for those 10-12 weeks is above his ADP. He's like a 3rd round RB #2 now. Just get a tad lucky in weeks 1-4.

 

[matuski]

Another take on Ingram is picking him up and then being able to play him as a 2nd RB, even a potential #1, or placed in a Flex position... as long as a team has two quality, or at least, one bell cow, and another decent RB ONLY for the first 4 weeks. Then Ingram is plugged in except for the bye week.

You could end up with a Fournette type with an Ajayi or Dion Lewis type, then get Ingram in the 6th? Or would it be Fournette, Ingram (in the 5th) and a Hyde or Mack type?

Ingram's value for those 10-12 weeks is above his ADP. He's like a 3rd round RB #2 now. Just get a tad lucky in weeks 1-4.

Where on earth are you getting Ingram in the 6th?

 

[Brisco54]

I don’t put a lot of stock in what the suspended player or his agent has to say, and the league isn’t allowed to reveal details of the failed test, so media often leaves us with a lopsided impression by presenting the one side that is loudly proclaiming innocence.

The one factual datapoint we get is whether the suspension is under the “performance enhancing” or “substances of abuse” policy.  A DUI would be under the latter.  So we know he had something in his sample that was marked as performance enhancing.  I find it hard to believe that the league and players’ association negotiated a list of PEDs that included things which were not in fact performance enhancing...

Taking your second point first, the NFLPA has specifically confirmed that there are drugs that are on the banned list that there can be granted an exception for proper therapeutic purposes.  Further, many drugs on the list are nto there because they are PEDs but because they can be used to mask the presence of PEDs.  You can see a list of the banned substances here:  https://nflpaweb.blob.core.windows.net/media/Default/Active Players/2016NFL_PES_Policy_ProhibitedSubstancesList.pdf

Note that this list includes 24 masking agents, none of which are "performance enhancing".  

On the first point, David Jones is a licensed attorney.  His statement makes one objective and definite assertion.  He states that the substance is on the list of those eligible for exemption.  If the substance is not subject to exemption, the NFL attorneys have a mandate to refer the comment to his bar for disciplinary action.

The first statement "is not a performance enhancing drug" is one that is subject to argument... one can disagree with whether or not a given drug is performance enhancing... 

therefore, at a minimum, I think ti is safe to conclude that the drug he popped hot for is on the list as being eligible for exemption.  Currently the NFLPA states that these are drugs used to treat one of the following conditions:  ADHD, male pattern baldness, hypertension, hypogonadism, or hypopituitarism

Further, you question of whether there will be a difference in performance might be moot.  If the substance is on the therapeutic use exemption (TUE) list, Ingram need only go through the proper TUE procedures and then continue taking the substance.

The TUE process involves more than just getting a prescription but also have an independent analysis of the diagnosis.  Ingram fired his agent right after popping hot.  My guess is this was because the agent thought that all Ingram needed was a prescription and told his client it was ok to take the drug.

 

[Team Smokin']

Where on earth are you getting Ingram in the 6th?

Yes, I see that now. Last week he was 5th and 6th round. Now he went early 4th at 49 overall. 

 

[matttyl]

Where on earth are you getting Ingram in the 6th?

I got him at 90, yes NINETY, last night in a 10 team start 2 RB with 1 flex league.  The two picks before him were Lynch and then Justin Tucker.  I also had the first pick the following round, and got Luck.  Felt pretty good about that turn.

 

[need2know]

I got him at 90, yes NINETY, last night in a 10 team start 2 RB with 1 flex league.  The two picks before him were Lynch and then Justin Tucker.  I also had the first pick the following round, and got Luck.  Felt pretty good about that turn.

Justin tucker?  

 

[Team Smokin']

I got him at 90, yes NINETY, last night in a 10 team start 2 RB with 1 flex league.  The two picks before him were Lynch and then Justin Tucker.  I also had the first pick the following round, and got Luck.  Felt pretty good about that turn.

Ingram went 49 this time. I went Baldwin 41, and then Lewis 56. Didn't work out for me to get Ingram. 3rd round is too much of a reach..

Got Luck at 95, grabbed Big Ben on the next pick following Footballguys advice to hold off on QB's

 

[matttyl]

Justin tucker?  

Yes.  That Justin Tucker (pretty sure that was a yahoo autodraft pick).  Three kickers and 5 team defenses all went before him (and Luck).  I was like WTF?

 

[matuski]

I got him at 90, yes NINETY, last night in a 10 team start 2 RB with 1 flex league.  The two picks before him were Lynch and then Justin Tucker.  I also had the first pick the following round, and got Luck.  Felt pretty good about that turn.