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Mark Ingram...Top 20 RB? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Kizman
- Start date
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Whatever you're setting the over/under for Ingram's receptions at, I'm taking the over. "Mark Ingram hasn't caught the ball much" should not be mistaken for "Mark Ingram can't catch the ball".
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I'm really surprised nobody's brought this up before
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
What are you thinking? ~30 receptions? I remember his TD reception during preseason action and wasn't completely surprised, I've seen some of the same from him in the past. He can catch the ball fine.
Anyway, I have to imagine this was Ingram's best preseason to date but I also remember there being some similar hype last year. Let me pull up some blurbs..
This was all during the preseason and obviously none of this came to fruition. If he can stay healthy (there are durability concerns) I do foresee him getting more work this season but I'd probably have a tough time leaning on him at all until I see NO committed to feeding him the rock more than 10 times a game.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
I'm in
bulger2holt
Footballguy
This new format for this site sucks
I think you guys are smoking crack rock but I hope you're right BC I drafted the bum.
I just don't see Sean Payton allowing him to play enough snaps and to touch the ball enough to get him any more than middling rb3 numbers. Top 30 Rb? I buy that.
But here's hoping I'm wrong!
I just don't see Sean Payton allowing him to play enough snaps and to touch the ball enough to get him any more than middling rb3 numbers. Top 30 Rb? I buy that.
But here's hoping I'm wrong!
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
If you mean all the new threads for players with already existing longstanding ones, you're right.
Milkman
Footballguy
Is there a reason they are going to throw to Ingram more when they have a back they fully trust on the roster that does it better?
bulger2holt
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
They average 180 targets to RBs a year. Pierre Thomas isn't getting all of them. Since 2006 (aka since Sean Payton came to town), New Orleans' SECOND best receiving back has topped 30 receptions every single year except for 2010... when Pierre Thomas had 29 in just 6 games and Reggie Bush had 34 in 8 games. Included on that list of second-best receiving backs are Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas... but also Deuce McAllister and Aaron Stecker. Last year, New Orleans' second-best receiving back had a whopping 71 receptions. He's also no longer with the team, so those receptions are up for grabs.
I think 30 receptions is a completely reasonable projection for Mark Ingram.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
how many of those years included sproles and bush?
so, if sproles got 100 targets you now think ingram gets 100 targets?
you don't think these average 180 targets have anything to do with their personnel?
Chaka
Footballguy
Bush and Sproles were their best receiving backs, now it's Thomas.
I also think RB targets will drop in NO (I think they will run a lot more) but there will still be enough to give the #2RB close to 30 receptions.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
For most of those years, (2008-2012), Pierre Thomas was the #2 receiving RB. But as I mentioned, Deuce McAllister (30 receptions in 2006) and Aaron Stecker (36 receptions in 2007) made the cut, too. 2007 seems particularly informative, since New Orleans really only had one great receiving back on their roster that year (Reggie Bush, along with a past-his-prime Deuce McAllister, the aforementioned Aaron Stecker, and Mike Karney). Reggie Bush got 98 targets that year. All of the other RBs still combined for 91 more. Personnel has come and gone, but emphasizing passing to the RB has been a core component of New Orleans' offense under Sean Payton. It's also been a common theme for Drew Brees; it's easy to forget that he was the man under center for the majority of Tomlinson's 100-catch season, too.
Sproles had 71 catches last year. I said 30 catches would be a completely reasonable projection for Ingram this year. So clearly I'm not just assuming that Mark Ingram is going to step in for Darren Sproles and pick up right where he left off. What I'm saying is that New Orleans has a very long history of involving two different RBs in the passing game, and that history predates both Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles. Based on that history, if people are projecting 10 catches for Mark Ingram, I'll gladly take the over. If I were to project a total for Ingram, I'd project 30 catches.
rdrouyn
Footballguy
Because:1. He has looked decent catching the ball as of late.
2. If they dont ever throw it to him when he is on
the field, it will be a tell to defenses that they can leave open the RB.
3. There will be RB targets available now that Sproles left. Not allof them will go to Thomas.
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Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
Ingram has been one of the worst RBs in the league the past 2 years. He's been regularly outperformed by everyone else in the Saints backfield. Payton has been pretty stubborn trying to justify trading up to get him and that'll probably continue if he shows anything. That said, he's looked significantly better this past preseason, he broke a tackle!, but it is just preseason.
He also cannot catch.
He also cannot catch.
"2. If they dont ever throw it to him when he is on
the field, it will be a tell to defenses that they can leave open the RB. "
You're describing exactly how Ingram has been used since he came into the league as a rookie. What makes you think that all of the sudden they are going to not pass the ball to Thomas and start passing it to Ingram? That sproles is gone? Watch khiry take those receptions.
Sean Payton is a good offensive mind but somehow he is flat out ######ed when it comes to using his star running back properly. If he would have used Ingram as a 3 down back since his rookie year the kid would be money rt now.
I hope he falls on his head and changes his philosophy but I'm skeptical.
Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
Over his last 4 regular season games he had 20 carries for 112 yards
Vs Philly in the playoffs he had 18 carries for 97 yards
Vs Seattle in the playoffs he had 10 carries for 49 yards.
That's a decent run, but it is pretty bad when that is by far the best stretch of someone's career.
Vs Philly in the playoffs he had 18 carries for 97 yards
Vs Seattle in the playoffs he had 10 carries for 49 yards.
That's a decent run, but it is pretty bad when that is by far the best stretch of someone's career.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
p thomas was out those 2 playoff games, and he played about 50% of the snaps on the season.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
yeah, that's fine --- I certainly have no problem with 30 catches, but does that really get you anywhere?
I'm not going to project anything off 2 games, but when a solid pass catching back missed the playoffs ingram's usage pimped up a bit and he got 4 targets in the one game, and I think 2 in the other for 17 yards on 3 balls over 2 games, which is pretty much what you're talking about.
here are his carries on the year when p thomas played -- 9, 8, 4, 14, 6, 9, 8, 3, 1, 13, 3
sproles chewed up a grand total of ~50 carries.
so, when the guy adds those 2 catches for 10 yds every week that's why you're really going to feel comfortable putting him in your line up?
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
his last 5 games he got 1, 13, and 3 carries with p thomas in there, then 18 and 10 without thomas in the playoffs.
but on those 3 carries he was tony the tiger.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
By DVOA, Ingram was the best rusher in New Orleans last year by a comfortable margin.
The funny thing about Ingram being "unable" to catch... he had more receiving yards in college (and a higher per-catch average) than Jamaal Charles. He also had more than LeSean McCoy, too. More than Darren Sproles. More than Ray Rice. I'm not cherry-picking examples, here- I looked up the five best receiving RBs that I could think of (those four plus Reggie Bush), and Ingram had better college receiving numbers than 80% of them. His Walter Football scouting report lists, under strengths, "Excellent receiver with soft hands". The Draft Breakdown report wasn't quite as glowing about his receiving, but still said "Ingram is a reliable receiver out of the backfield especially in the screen game where his patience and ability to set up blocks really shines." I could keep looking up college stats and scouting reports all day long, but the simple fact is that Ingram was seen as, at worst, a good receiver coming out of college. So, again, it's a question of whether Ingram "can't" catch, or whether Ingram "hasn't been asked to" catch.
This reminds me a lot of people who were downgrading Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, and Percy Harvin coming into the league because they "couldn't" run pro-style routes, (with the evidence being that they had never been asked to run pro-style routes). Or the guys who were claiming that Jamaal Charles "couldn't" handle a full workload, (with the evidence being that they had not yet seen him asked to handle a full workload). Similarly, Mark Ingram "can't" catch the football because we haven't seen him do it, (as a pro- we saw him do it plenty in college). And instead, all of those receptions are going to go right to Khiry Robinson, who has zero catches so far in his pro career. (Well, one catch if you include the playoffs.)
Maybe Khiry gets the catches. I don't assume that just because I haven't seen him catch the ball that he can't catch the ball. But if I had to guess who finishes second in receptions among NO's RBs, I'd bet on Ingram.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I don't think it's going to make him a top-20 RB, but I do think there's a good chance those extra 50 points wind up being the difference between Ingram being a quality flex and Ingram being unstartable in PPR leagues. Donald Brown finished at RB28 last year in PPR with 102/537/6 rushing and 27/214/2 receiving. Rashad Jennings was RB24 with 164/733/6 and 36/292/0. If Ingram starts getting a little bit involved in the passing game, it's easy to see him finishing up somewhere in that neighborhood. He's not a guy I'd feel comfortable starting every week, but there's a pretty good chance his owners can get some solid flex value out of him, and he'll be a nice bye-week fill-in.
On the higher end of outcomes... RB19 last year was MJD with 235/803/5 and 43/314/0. I think that'd be on the higher end of projections for Ingram, but I don't think that would be all that surprising of a season, and that would likely land him in the top 20.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I'd agree that those numbers might be right in his wheelhouse, but you have to be careful when comparing a future guy to the past based on total points, as you're counting injuries to the rest of the league, but discounting injury to ingram.
there are very possibly many guys that would've bumped donald brown down the list if they hadn't missed games last year, and while it's certainly true all these guys may be injured again this year, opening the door for ingram at RB28, it's also true ingram may miss games.
so, in my ppr donald brown was RB28 last year total points, but RB38 ppg (which, of course, includes a few throw outs)
once we get up past the 30 mark we're talking about a loss for you at flex.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
yeah, I think it would be surprising, and kind of the problem with the ingram kool-aid.
think about what you're selling yourself here --- an average 15 carries/game for 16 games on a guy who got 10+ carries twice last year, 13 + 14 carries.
his 2 best weeks didn't even meet what you project him to average this year, and the guy only played in 11 games.
his biggest competitor for touches and snaps, pierre thomas, didn't even play in the 2 playoff games and ingram still couldn't average 15 carries.
if you wanted to bust balls, 2012 -- 3 games with 15+ carries, 2011 -- 2 games with 15+ carries
and that's before we even get to the receiving end of it, which has been kind of the popular subtopic --- 43 catches for a guy who has a grand total of 24 in his 3 year career (reg season).
I'll give you the 5 td, but let's also not forget he had only 1 last year -- would that be the one week you had him in your flex or covering that bye?
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Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Brilliant supporting data and reasoning in here from Adam Harstad. Many many thanks. Great stuff.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I was looking more at the yardage totals. I agree that 235 rushes would be borderline-shocking for Ingram, but at the same time, he's not going to average 3.4 ypc like 2013 Maurice Jones-Drew on the worst offense in the NFL. Ingram had 4.9 ypc last year. If he puts up 4.5 ypc this year, he'd only need 180 carries to reach 800 rushing yards. If he duplicates his 4.9 ypc average, he can get to 800 rushing yards with just 10 carries a game.Kool-Aid Larry said:
If we're talking about "reasonable upside" projections, I don't think 160-180 carries, 4.5-4.9 ypc, and 40 receptions are really beyond the pale. Again, making it clear that we're talking about upside projections, assuming everything breaks right for Ingram (but not assuming any injuries to the NO backfield- if Pierre and/or Khiry get hurt, that changes the calculations significantly). They're not what I'm expecting, but they also wouldn't leave me gobsmacked if they came about.
I'm an Ingram supporter not because I think he's going to be so awesome this year, but because he's so cheap. According to MFL, Ingram's being drafted in the 11th round as the 42nd RB off the board, between Jeremy Hill and Terrance West. He has a much clearer path to production than those guys, and he has the same upside if injury strikes elsewhere on the depth chart. It seems to me like he's a substantially more valuable asset than the guys he's currently being valued around, and a clear buy at those prices. Not because I think he's going to be a stud, but because I think he's much less of a scrub than the alternatives.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
I think too many people are getting caught up in numbers and not paying attention as much to what's more important - he's LOOKED powerful and more decisive than he did early in his career.
I also think that if you've watched him play, especially this preseason, you understand why an awful lot of people are seeing a "different" RB.
We know what Thomas is and he's not going to get any better, and if Ingram runs hard and has the hands he was expected to coming into the NFL, his upside as a starting RB is very, very high. And we know the Saints have invested in Ingram and not utilized him in a way to get the best return for their investment. They'll also need to make a decision on him after this year.
There are a lot of signs pointing to Ingram getting quite an opportunity this year. Is he ready to take advantage of it? The way he LOOKED at the end of last year and the way he's LOOKED this preseason are pretty positive signs.
I also think that if you've watched him play, especially this preseason, you understand why an awful lot of people are seeing a "different" RB.
We know what Thomas is and he's not going to get any better, and if Ingram runs hard and has the hands he was expected to coming into the NFL, his upside as a starting RB is very, very high. And we know the Saints have invested in Ingram and not utilized him in a way to get the best return for their investment. They'll also need to make a decision on him after this year.
There are a lot of signs pointing to Ingram getting quite an opportunity this year. Is he ready to take advantage of it? The way he LOOKED at the end of last year and the way he's LOOKED this preseason are pretty positive signs.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I hit up Chris Wesseling on Twitter (former poster F&L, author of the Mark Ingram hype piece on NFL.com) and asked him whether he was taking the over or the under on 30 receptions for Ingram. He said he'd take the under, but it was close. For whatever it's worth.
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I think we'll know after the Falcs game. Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see a screen or two to MI near the goal line (red zone anyway) as well.
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Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
that's a fair point about the ypc differential -- I'll give you that, and I don't think your numbers are generally too crazy, but I'd take hill all day (and did) over ingram, and I have no idea why you'd think ingram has such a much clearer path to production.
I actually like ingram as a runner, it's just the opportunity I don't like, but remember you're banking this 4.5 - 4.9 ypc on a guy who put up 3.9 ypc in his previous 2 years, so these things aren't always so dependable, and 78 carries is a pretty terrible sample --- so, for example if I remove the 14/145 against a historically bad dallas he's left with 3.75 ypc, which is right in line with his previous 2 years.
give him his 30 catches in 2012 and he's borderline flex, but of course that's an average with all kinds of guys a point apart, and I could give him some hope for improvement on that in 2014, but there are most likely players down there who will outproduce him besides hill.
I actually like ingram as a runner, it's just the opportunity I don't like, but remember you're banking this 4.5 - 4.9 ypc on a guy who put up 3.9 ypc in his previous 2 years, so these things aren't always so dependable, and 78 carries is a pretty terrible sample --- so, for example if I remove the 14/145 against a historically bad dallas he's left with 3.75 ypc, which is right in line with his previous 2 years.
give him his 30 catches in 2012 and he's borderline flex, but of course that's an average with all kinds of guys a point apart, and I could give him some hope for improvement on that in 2014, but there are most likely players down there who will outproduce him besides hill.
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Chaka
Footballguy
While I firmly believe that Sean Payton wants to run the ball 450 times this season (and Ingram will thrive if that happens) I am not entirely convinced Payton has the patience to make that happen, so I think Ingram's fantasy season will be made or broken near the goal line. The Saints offense is easily good enough to give Ingram an opportunity at double digit goal line scoring opportunities even if he only has limited opportunities everywhere else.
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Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
oh, I already understand that --- people SEE what they want to SEE, so whatever they're LOOKING at gets reverse engineered to support their existing belief.
they SAW the same thing in previous preseasons, as well as when the dude was coming out of college.
you could say the same for richardson, actually, but I don't want to insult ingram by dragging that sack in here.
last year in postseason he LOOKED like a guy who got 18 carries 'cuz thomas was out.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Ingram scored one TD on three rush attempts from inside the 5 last year and PT scored 1 on six attempts.
My belief that Ingram could be a good fantasy back this season has little to do with Ingram and more to do with my belief that Payton wants to be more committed to the run in general. The Saints have had their greatest success under Payton when they run the ball 430+ times/season and my feeling is that Payton will try to go back to that this year.
Plus I don't think Payton would mind being proven right about Ingram either but I am not sure how much that will impact anything.
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Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
ummmm.....who is he having this debate with - himself?
who's been giving the guy 100 carries every year?
edit: maybe this is really about some other people trying to prove they were right on ingram.......
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Chaka
Footballguy
That wasn't the point of my post and I think you know that, particularly because of the bolded.ummmm.....who is he having this debate with - himself?
who's been giving the guy 100 carries every year?
And 100 carries a year to Ingram and 380 team carries/year isn't exactly a big commitment to the run. Again my cautiously optimistic feelings about Ingram are based on a belief that the play calling will change, not necessarily that Ingram will be markedly better as a player.
