Math whizzes - help me figure this out (1 Viewer)

[WampusCat43]

We do a 5-round auction followed by 10 more rounds of serpentine drafting. 12-team league. We have a $100 budget for the auction. I'm trying to cipher how to adjust the FBG values to fit the fact that we're only drafting a third of our team.

I took the top 60 list and added up the values - $751. I then multiplied the values by 1200/751. This gave me some fairly reasonable extrapolated values for the top players, but the bottom players (most of whom will go for $1) are hyper-inflated. What to do about this? I thought about lining up the top 180 players and looking at every third data point to find a relative value throughout the draft, but a) it's a lot of work, and b) my maff skillz aren't sufficient enough to tell me if this is reasonable.

Any thoughts? Sorry about the crappy table below; I've never been able to add something readable.

Overall - Old $$$ New $$$

1 Adrian Peterson (01.01) Min/5 RB 23 37

2 Dez Bryant (01.08) Dal/6 WR 22 35

3 C.J. Anderson (01.07) Den/7 RB 22 35

4 Marshawn Lynch (01.05) Sea/9 RB 22 35

5 Jamaal Charles (01.04) KC/9 RB 21 34

6 LeVeon Bell (01.02) Pit/11 RB 21 34

7 Andrew Luck (01.11) Ind/10 QB 20 32

8 Demaryius Thomas (01.10) Den/7 WR 20 32

9 Odell Beckham (02.03) NYG/11 WR 20 32

10 Eddie Lacy (01.03) GB/7 RB 19 30

…

51 Jonathan Stewart (04.12) Car/5 RB 7 11

52 T.J. Yeldon (05.10) Jac/8 RB 7 11

53 Rashad Jennings (07.01) NYG/11 RB 7 11

54 Joique Bell (06.10) Det/9 RB 6 10

55 Peyton Manning (03.12) Den/7 QB 6 10

56 Ben Roethlisberger (04.10) Pit/11 QB 6 10

57 DeAndre Hopkins (03.09) Hou/9 WR 6 10

58 Emmanuel Sanders (03.07) Den/7 WR 6 10

59 Golden Tate (04.06) Det/9 WR 6 10

60 Vincent Jackson (06.08) TB/6 WR 6 10

751 1202

 

[jon_mx]

I would plan on spending $1 in the 4th and 5th, and do a similar analysis just using the top 36 players.

 

[bostonfred]

Have fun and stop worrying

 

[Uncle Grandpa]

Calc the VBD based on just the 60 players you feel will be drafted during the auction. Then allocate dollars based on that VBD calc.

 

[WampusCat43]

Big shout-out to Freelove for some behind the scenes advice, which was very similar to jon_mx's above. I let about 10 players go by, then pounced hard on Demaryius. Waited a while, then bought up Ingram. Waited a long while, until I had control of the auction, and hammered Dez. Saved $4 for my last two players (Latavius and Eli - huge, stupid run on QBs). Basically ended up with 3 of the top 13 rated players in a TD-only league, and 5 of the top 38.

My only concern now is that my three studs all got PAID this year.

 

[Freelove]

The substance of what I suggested, only because I think it's valuable for anyone else who happens to have a late draft of this sort...

You NEED to base your entire auction strategy around two AND ONLY TWO ideas.

1 - That you must move heaven and earth to ENSURE you get the two or so most expensive guys you can get, even if that means spending all but a buck for each guy left.

2 - You must do whatever necessary to make sure NO ONE else can accomplish this, if you can't do it as well.

The reason auction values typically follow a smooth, FBG-prices curve, is because the last guys are genuinely worthless compared to the first.

In your auction, there are TWO huge ways that is different. FIRST, because the guys going for a buck are going to still be really valuable starters with decent chances of being top tier producers. SECOND, because you literally CAN'T be punished for splurging on multiple top tier talents.

The way an auction punishes that type of greedy behavior is by ruining the rest of your draft. Here, that can't happen, since EVERYBODY, no matter how they budgeted, has equal draft access to everybody after round five. So the advantage of having like AP AND LACY is astronomical.

Keep your pricing flexible, but imagine 97 bucks budgeted for two guys. And IF it appears someone else is willing to go that far, don't be afraid to push your very top ranked guys to 60. If you get left holding the bag, you still get a stud, and have 37 to spend on a second guy. But if somebody elsr gets AP or whoever before you get anyone, and gets him for less than 50, your leaguemates could adjust and lock you out of pursuing that strategy. Meaning the only one who gets away with it is THE FIRST TO STRIKE.

That - NOT adjusting FBG values - has to be your strategy.

 

[Pwingles]

Couldnt someone theoretically fill their whole team in the auction portion, or at least a large chunk?

 

[Freelove]

Couldnt someone theoretically fill their whole team in the auction portion, or at least a large chunk?

The way he described it, I assumed you had a cap of five slots to spend your auction cash on.

 

[Phenomena]

Calc the VBD based on just the 60 players you feel will be drafted during the auction. Then allocate dollars based on that VBD calc.

Yes, it should be no different than normal VBD analysis. Only use the top 60 players instead of the normal pool of 300 players. The 60th ranked player is the baseline (so approximately RB24, WR27, QB4, TE5).

I would expect the top QBs to go extremely cheap in this auction since the baseline at player 60 is like the 4th QB (so the VBD for Luck would be something like 30 points, difference between QB1 and QB4) ... while the RB24 would be going around pick 60, so someone like AP would be worth 100+ VBD. I'd expect AP to go for 3x-4x as much as Luck, for example.

Basically you should be willing to drop serious cash on the top RBs and avoid the QBs unless they are dirt cheap.

One strategy would be to nominate players outside of your own top 60 so people spend money on them when they are technically not even worth $1 or a roster spot.

In that type of league I would probably spend huge on my first 2-3 players then take the last two players on my roster as $1 picks. You only have to spend $1 to get a 5th round value player. Maximize that by taking two $1 players and spending all of your money on 2-3 studs.

 

[Freelove]

Calc the VBD based on just the 60 players you feel will be drafted during the auction. Then allocate dollars based on that VBD calc.

Yes, it should be no different than normal VBD analysis. Only use the top 60 players instead of the normal pool of 300 players. The 60th ranked player is the baseline (so approximately RB24, WR27, QB4, TE5).

I would expect the top QBs to go extremely cheap in this auction since the baseline at player 60 is like the 4th QB (so the VBD for Luck would be something like 30 points, difference between QB1 and QB4) ... while the RB24 would be going around pick 60, so someone like AP would be worth 100+ VBD. I'd expect AP to go for 3x-4x as much as Luck, for example.

Completely wrong.

Correct valuation, for the reasons described above, would be more like this:

1. Your Top Rated Player - $50

2. Your #2 - $50

3. Your #3 - $50

4. Your #4 - $50

5. Your #5 - $50

6. Your #6 - $50

.

.

.

Until your top tier, however you rate them, runs out, then

.

.

.

7. Your #7 and beyond - $1

You want at least two of the guys from your very top tier, since you can't be value-punished later in the draft for being greedy at the start of it. The only correct strategy is to hog as much value at the top of the draft as your leaguemates will allow. Instead of your $1 leftovers spelling doom, it'll be like Frank Gore or Jeremy Maclin or something. Then, everybody is back on even footing for the snake draft portion beginning with player #61.

 

[Uncle Grandpa]

Calc the VBD based on just the 60 players you feel will be drafted during the auction. Then allocate dollars based on that VBD calc.

Yes, it should be no different than normal VBD analysis. Only use the top 60 players instead of the normal pool of 300 players. The 60th ranked player is the baseline (so approximately RB24, WR27, QB4, TE5).

I would expect the top QBs to go extremely cheap in this auction since the baseline at player 60 is like the 4th QB (so the VBD for Luck would be something like 30 points, difference between QB1 and QB4) ... while the RB24 would be going around pick 60, so someone like AP would be worth 100+ VBD. I'd expect AP to go for 3x-4x as much as Luck, for example.

Completely wrong.

Correct valuation, for the reasons described above, would be more like this:

1. Your Top Rated Player - $50

2. Your #2 - $50

3. Your #3 - $50

4. Your #4 - $50

5. Your #5 - $50

6. Your #6 - $50

.

.

.

Until your top tier, however you rate them, runs out, then

.

.

.

7. Your #7 and beyond - $1

You want at least two of the guys from your very top tier, since you can't be value-punished later in the draft for being greedy at the start of it. The only correct strategy is to hog as much value at the top of the draft as your leaguemates will allow. Instead of your $1 leftovers spelling doom, it'll be like Frank Gore or Jeremy Maclin or something. Then, everybody is back on even footing for the snake draft portion beginning with player #61.

You'll have to walk me through how this method ensures you end up with the most potential VBD.

 

[kd1]

doesn't that technically become a 4 round auction, with the 5th round basically being a regular draft round with the order being sorted out from the most to the least remaining money?

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I think what I would do here is just purchase the draft dominator. Then plug in the settings so that it's just 5 players you pick for $100. My guess is it automatically calculates for you. Then export XL.

Basically it just looks like you have roughly added 50% to all values (which I think is because you're squeezing 15 round assumptions into 1/3rd) which seems fairly scattershot. Best thing to do is to get your league's results from last year and do your own estimated VBD. It will be better than anything, worth the work and fun if you're geeked out by such stuff.