Matt Holliday (1 Viewer)

[shadyridr]

Why is this guy's ADP in the 3rd-4th round behind OFers like Pence? Sure he had an injury plagued season last year but that was alot of freak injuries like appendicitis. In the years before dude was a model of consistency. Sure Pujols left but Berkman, Beltran, Freese isnt terrible protection. This guy was a consensus 1st-2nd rd pick last yr before appendicitis hit and yet I dont get the whole reason for the drop in rankings

 

[RnR]

Why is this guy's ADP in the 3rd-4th round behind OFers like Pence? Sure he had an injury plagued season last year but that was alot of freak injuries like appendicitis. In the years before dude was a model of consistency. Sure Pujols left but Berkman, Beltran, Freese isnt terrible protection. This guy was a consensus 1st-2nd rd pick last yr before appendicitis hit and yet I dont get the whole reason for the drop in rankings

You're right. Fantasy players tend to be reactionary. They're reacting to one season, and I think you've correctly identified it as an opportunity for profit. One thing I will say though, people used to count on double digit steals from Holliday, and that isn't happening anymore.

 

[MAC_32]

20-25 HR's and single digit steals from an OF just aren't worth a top 20 pick.

 

[pantagrapher]

Why is this guy's ADP in the 3rd-4th round behind OFers like Pence? Sure he had an injury plagued season last year but that was alot of freak injuries like appendicitis. In the years before dude was a model of consistency. Sure Pujols left but Berkman, Beltran, Freese isnt terrible protection. This guy was a consensus 1st-2nd rd pick last yr before appendicitis hit and yet I dont get the whole reason for the drop in rankings

Speaking of models of consistency: Pence.

 

[Captain Hook]

Why is this guy's ADP in the 3rd-4th round behind OFers like Pence? Sure he had an injury plagued season last year but that was alot of freak injuries like appendicitis. In the years before dude was a model of consistency. Sure Pujols left but Berkman, Beltran, Freese isnt terrible protection. This guy was a consensus 1st-2nd rd pick last yr before appendicitis hit and yet I dont get the whole reason for the drop in rankings

1) Not all the injuries were fluky - quad and back issues.........and2) He is now 32 years old3) He won't get double digit steals anymoreSo yes the BA and power is still there but rankings ought to be based on projections, so how many AB do you think he can get this year?That said I agree that he has been undervalued - we actually have him "earning" $26 which should easily put him in the top ten outfielders and see him drafted in the third round (for 15 team leagues) perhaps even late second

 

[RnR]

20-25 HR's and single digit steals from an OF just aren't worth a top 20 pick.

And the BA, RBI, Run numbers? Who says top 20? That's the front half of the 2nd round in my leagues. I can easily see making a case for him in the top 30, which comfortable rests him in the late 2nd in 15-teamers and the early 3rd in 12-teamers.

 

[MAC_32]

20-25 HR's and single digit steals from an OF just aren't worth a top 20 pick.

And the BA, RBI, Run numbers? Who says top 20? That's the front half of the 2nd round in my leagues. I can easily see making a case for him in the top 30, which comfortable rests him in the late 2nd in 15-teamers and the early 3rd in 12-teamers.

Playing it safe doesn't win titles. You don't want to do anything silly early on, but you can't hit singles and expect to end up on top when all is said and done. There's plenty of time later on to make safety picks. Personally, I'm going after the higher upside options (Stanton and Bruce) and guys that should put up similar #'s to Holliday at more scarce positions (Pablo, Zimm, and Konerko). In many leagues I'd even gamble on Cruz too. 400 Cruz AB's + 200 replacement level AB's for when Cruz is hurt > Holliday. I think Pence is a very fair comparison to Holliday, I'd take Holliday just before I'd take Pence. Pick 50-something, think that's about Pence's adp. That deep he provides upside, any earlier and he doesn't.