John Bender
Footballguy
FIRST BASEMEN:
1. Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals - Not too much discussion or justification required with this one. I really don't see him slowing down, and I would have no problem selecting him first overall in almost every format. He's only 30, and last year was supposed to be the year that he would be hampered by the elbow injury and produce less and he ends up hitting 10 more homeruns more than he did in 2008. Nothing really not to like from a fantasy perspective, and it only helps that Holliday was retained.
MY PROJECTIONS: .332 BA, 43 HR, 133 RBI, 10 SB, 112 RUNS
2. Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers - I have to disclose that Miggy is my favorite player in the game today outside of Ryan Braun. I think of the hitters in the American League, Miggy has the best chance at making a run at a triple crown. It will never happen, but he's the most likely in my eyes. I'm only slighly concerned about his apparent alcohol problem that bubbled up in the off season but not enough to drop him in my rankings. He will no longer have 3B eligibility which will hurt his value slightly but there's no reason it won't be business as usual for Cabrera. He is now in his prime. He is a career .311 hitter, I don't see why he's not a 6th or 7th overall selection in most drafts. After Pujols, Hanley, and ARod, I wouldn't find it crazy for Miggy to be selected 4th overall.
MY PROJECTIONS: .315 BA, 34 HR, 109 RBI, 2 SB, 95 RUNS
3. Mark Teixeira - New York Yankees - I'm going to get slammed by many for ranking him here and that's fine with me. This is the spot where I would legitimately select Teixeira. I get giddy thinking about having a mid-range pick and Teixeira falling to me in Round 2. Of any of the thumpers on this list, he is by far in the best situation. The guy will back into 100 RBIs and 100 Runs accidently. He is playing in a hitter friendly ballpark and he has an insane amount of protection around him. The reason I give him the edge over Howard is the upside in batting average. More about why I dropped Ryan Howard to 4th in the next blurb though. Select Teix with confidence, you know what you are going to get.
MY PROJECTIONS: .298 BA, 37 HR, 120 RBI, 1 SB, 103 RUNS
4. Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies - The top 5 or so first basemen are just tough to rank. All of them have tremendous upside, but I think Howard is the most volatile of them all just due to the streakiness. There's no doubt he will finish the season as a HR and RBI leader in the NL. The problem is (and I'm writing this from more of a Head 2 Head perspective) the weeks that he will sap your batting average and run numbers. When you have a big matchup against someone right behind you in the standings, you have no idea which Ryan Howard you are going to get that week. You might get a .170 Batting Average, 1 Homerun and 3 RBIs. You could get .350 Batting Average, 9 Homeruns and 20 RBIs. My bottom line: in my head to head leagues, he goes fourth. In a roto league, depending on how you plan on drafting the rest of your team, I could see him being the 2nd best first basemen.
MY PROJECTIONS: .272 BA, 44 HR, 144 RBI, 1 SB, 103 RUNS
5. Prince Fielder - Milwaukee Brewers - Prince is great, but I'm not going all in on him yet. He put up Ryan Howard-esque numbers in 2009 and I will probably be kicking myself for not selecting him come the end of this season, but I'd like to see one more solid season out of him before I move him up into a higher ranking. The issue will be that he will never be the hitter for average that Pujols or Cabrera are. He's admittedly very hard for me to gauge and I'm scared of ranking him at 5th best. If anything, it goes to show how deep this position is in 2010.
MY PROJECTIONS: .281 BA, 40 HR, 131 RBI, 2 SB, 103 RUNS
6. Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins - He keeps slipping a bit in drafts, and I love it. I feel like he is going to be a forgotten commodity because of the Big 5 at this position. He's one of the most reliable fantasy contributors I can think of in recent memory. He has reach 30 HR in 3 of the last 4 seasons and will have plenty of RBI opportunities with Mauer hitting in front of him. The Twins have a lot of nice parts on offense and Morneau is their big bat. I like his opportunities and the injury issue that he battled last season seems to be completely in the rearview.
MY PROJECTIONS: .298 BA, 32 HR, 114 RBI, 1 SB, 91 RUNS
7. Adrian Gonzalez - San Diego Padres - I wish I could rank him higher, but I cannot until he is traded out of PetCo park. I'm salivating at thinking about what he could do in a smaller stadium. The guy still manages to produce but won't be a top 3 first basemen until he's traded from the Padres. He can hold his own though in the power department as long as you can mitigate the damage he may do to your batting average. Beware, if you are light in the run department when it comes time to select a first basement, you might want to look elsewhere. He won't stack up to the others there.
MY PROJECTIONS: .272 BA, 39 HR, 99 RBI, 0 SB, 89 RUNS
8. Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox - He's still slept on a bit because he's not a sexy name. He is reliable though. He will hit in front of Victor Martinez; he will hit behind guys who can get on base and score runs. There is no reason he can't be around his career medians in any of the vital categories. I like him as a value play outside of the first 5 rounds or so. I do think the upside is less than a few of the guys I'm going to rank behind him though. With Youkilis, you know what you are getting though and that counts for a lot in fantasy baseball. I may even consider swapping him with Adrian Gonzalez depending on categorical needs at that point.
MY PROJECTIONS: .309 BA, 26 HR, 94 RBI, 6 SB, 92 RUNS
9. Kendry Morales - Los Angeles Angels - Here is one of the guys that I think has the more upside than Youkilis. I like the opportunity he's going to get to be the power guy in Anaheim. There are a few one-season wonders that could be flukes; Morales is not one I consider a fluke. I would confidently draft him in the Youk/Votto/Berkman territory. I was very conservative with his batting average projection because I'd like to see one more season of plus .300 production. He had an insanely high BABIP last year at .351. If we bring that back down to earth again, I think he rounds out somewhere in the .275 - .285 range.
MY PROJECTIONS: .279 BA, 30 HR, 99 RBI, 1 SB, 88 RUNS
10. Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds - Everyone is going crazy over Votto's breakout season. I'm going to temper expectations slightly, though I feel the ceiling is high. I agree his 2009 campaign was impressive, and I think he does have .300-25-90 potential on a consistent basis, but I still rank him 10th overall which speaks to the depth at first base this year. I don't see any reason he shouldn't be able to repeat his 2009 numbers but I just feel like the "risk factor" is still very loose on him.
MY PROJECTIONS: .294 BA, 23 HR, 84 RBI, 4 SB, 91 RUNS
The Rest...
11. Lance Berkman - I'm nervous a breakdown is coming/already here.
12. Derrek Lee - See Lance Berkman, I hate the Cubs lineup, he will be on my "avoid" list.
13. Billy Butler - Popular sleeper pick, I'd debate grabbing him over Berkman or Lee depending on how much I like risk.
14. Adam LaRoche - I'm higher than everyone else on him. I love his situation.
15. Chris Davis - Big upside.
16. Carlos Pena - Huge downside.
17. James Loney - Better real life player than fantasy player
18. Jorge Cantu - Lukewarm on him
19. Paul Konerko - Plan on the power, plan on needing to look elsewhere for batting average help.
20. Nick Johnson - Sleeper Alert
21 and beyond: Todd Helton, Aubrey Huff, Casey Kotchmann, Carlos Delgado, Russell Branyan, Lyle Overbay, Daniel Murphy
1. Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals - Not too much discussion or justification required with this one. I really don't see him slowing down, and I would have no problem selecting him first overall in almost every format. He's only 30, and last year was supposed to be the year that he would be hampered by the elbow injury and produce less and he ends up hitting 10 more homeruns more than he did in 2008. Nothing really not to like from a fantasy perspective, and it only helps that Holliday was retained.
MY PROJECTIONS: .332 BA, 43 HR, 133 RBI, 10 SB, 112 RUNS
2. Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers - I have to disclose that Miggy is my favorite player in the game today outside of Ryan Braun. I think of the hitters in the American League, Miggy has the best chance at making a run at a triple crown. It will never happen, but he's the most likely in my eyes. I'm only slighly concerned about his apparent alcohol problem that bubbled up in the off season but not enough to drop him in my rankings. He will no longer have 3B eligibility which will hurt his value slightly but there's no reason it won't be business as usual for Cabrera. He is now in his prime. He is a career .311 hitter, I don't see why he's not a 6th or 7th overall selection in most drafts. After Pujols, Hanley, and ARod, I wouldn't find it crazy for Miggy to be selected 4th overall.
MY PROJECTIONS: .315 BA, 34 HR, 109 RBI, 2 SB, 95 RUNS
3. Mark Teixeira - New York Yankees - I'm going to get slammed by many for ranking him here and that's fine with me. This is the spot where I would legitimately select Teixeira. I get giddy thinking about having a mid-range pick and Teixeira falling to me in Round 2. Of any of the thumpers on this list, he is by far in the best situation. The guy will back into 100 RBIs and 100 Runs accidently. He is playing in a hitter friendly ballpark and he has an insane amount of protection around him. The reason I give him the edge over Howard is the upside in batting average. More about why I dropped Ryan Howard to 4th in the next blurb though. Select Teix with confidence, you know what you are going to get.
MY PROJECTIONS: .298 BA, 37 HR, 120 RBI, 1 SB, 103 RUNS
4. Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies - The top 5 or so first basemen are just tough to rank. All of them have tremendous upside, but I think Howard is the most volatile of them all just due to the streakiness. There's no doubt he will finish the season as a HR and RBI leader in the NL. The problem is (and I'm writing this from more of a Head 2 Head perspective) the weeks that he will sap your batting average and run numbers. When you have a big matchup against someone right behind you in the standings, you have no idea which Ryan Howard you are going to get that week. You might get a .170 Batting Average, 1 Homerun and 3 RBIs. You could get .350 Batting Average, 9 Homeruns and 20 RBIs. My bottom line: in my head to head leagues, he goes fourth. In a roto league, depending on how you plan on drafting the rest of your team, I could see him being the 2nd best first basemen.
MY PROJECTIONS: .272 BA, 44 HR, 144 RBI, 1 SB, 103 RUNS
5. Prince Fielder - Milwaukee Brewers - Prince is great, but I'm not going all in on him yet. He put up Ryan Howard-esque numbers in 2009 and I will probably be kicking myself for not selecting him come the end of this season, but I'd like to see one more solid season out of him before I move him up into a higher ranking. The issue will be that he will never be the hitter for average that Pujols or Cabrera are. He's admittedly very hard for me to gauge and I'm scared of ranking him at 5th best. If anything, it goes to show how deep this position is in 2010.
MY PROJECTIONS: .281 BA, 40 HR, 131 RBI, 2 SB, 103 RUNS
6. Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins - He keeps slipping a bit in drafts, and I love it. I feel like he is going to be a forgotten commodity because of the Big 5 at this position. He's one of the most reliable fantasy contributors I can think of in recent memory. He has reach 30 HR in 3 of the last 4 seasons and will have plenty of RBI opportunities with Mauer hitting in front of him. The Twins have a lot of nice parts on offense and Morneau is their big bat. I like his opportunities and the injury issue that he battled last season seems to be completely in the rearview.
MY PROJECTIONS: .298 BA, 32 HR, 114 RBI, 1 SB, 91 RUNS
7. Adrian Gonzalez - San Diego Padres - I wish I could rank him higher, but I cannot until he is traded out of PetCo park. I'm salivating at thinking about what he could do in a smaller stadium. The guy still manages to produce but won't be a top 3 first basemen until he's traded from the Padres. He can hold his own though in the power department as long as you can mitigate the damage he may do to your batting average. Beware, if you are light in the run department when it comes time to select a first basement, you might want to look elsewhere. He won't stack up to the others there.
MY PROJECTIONS: .272 BA, 39 HR, 99 RBI, 0 SB, 89 RUNS
8. Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox - He's still slept on a bit because he's not a sexy name. He is reliable though. He will hit in front of Victor Martinez; he will hit behind guys who can get on base and score runs. There is no reason he can't be around his career medians in any of the vital categories. I like him as a value play outside of the first 5 rounds or so. I do think the upside is less than a few of the guys I'm going to rank behind him though. With Youkilis, you know what you are getting though and that counts for a lot in fantasy baseball. I may even consider swapping him with Adrian Gonzalez depending on categorical needs at that point.
MY PROJECTIONS: .309 BA, 26 HR, 94 RBI, 6 SB, 92 RUNS
9. Kendry Morales - Los Angeles Angels - Here is one of the guys that I think has the more upside than Youkilis. I like the opportunity he's going to get to be the power guy in Anaheim. There are a few one-season wonders that could be flukes; Morales is not one I consider a fluke. I would confidently draft him in the Youk/Votto/Berkman territory. I was very conservative with his batting average projection because I'd like to see one more season of plus .300 production. He had an insanely high BABIP last year at .351. If we bring that back down to earth again, I think he rounds out somewhere in the .275 - .285 range.
MY PROJECTIONS: .279 BA, 30 HR, 99 RBI, 1 SB, 88 RUNS
10. Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds - Everyone is going crazy over Votto's breakout season. I'm going to temper expectations slightly, though I feel the ceiling is high. I agree his 2009 campaign was impressive, and I think he does have .300-25-90 potential on a consistent basis, but I still rank him 10th overall which speaks to the depth at first base this year. I don't see any reason he shouldn't be able to repeat his 2009 numbers but I just feel like the "risk factor" is still very loose on him.
MY PROJECTIONS: .294 BA, 23 HR, 84 RBI, 4 SB, 91 RUNS
The Rest...
11. Lance Berkman - I'm nervous a breakdown is coming/already here.
12. Derrek Lee - See Lance Berkman, I hate the Cubs lineup, he will be on my "avoid" list.
13. Billy Butler - Popular sleeper pick, I'd debate grabbing him over Berkman or Lee depending on how much I like risk.
14. Adam LaRoche - I'm higher than everyone else on him. I love his situation.
15. Chris Davis - Big upside.
16. Carlos Pena - Huge downside.
17. James Loney - Better real life player than fantasy player
18. Jorge Cantu - Lukewarm on him
19. Paul Konerko - Plan on the power, plan on needing to look elsewhere for batting average help.
20. Nick Johnson - Sleeper Alert
21 and beyond: Todd Helton, Aubrey Huff, Casey Kotchmann, Carlos Delgado, Russell Branyan, Lyle Overbay, Daniel Murphy
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