Matt Jones: Can he really be counted on? (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

One of the guys I am bouncing around with before my draft this weekend is Matt Jones. I have a hard time figuring out how effective he will be in his 2nd year. How realistic is 1,000 yd and 6-8TD?

Jax is not that great at running the ball, yet they have a solid defense and with a little more offense could go far in the AFC. Lefty is not the best QB...probably not a top15 QB...not just in FF terms but just in general in the NFL. Does this limit Matt Jones upside?

Wilford and Williams have got to be factored into the mix somewhere too, not sure how this impacts Jones as well. I hate to call on Jaguars homers ut some insight here would be good. Del Rio has said Jones will see an increase in targets...does anyone have his catch to target % handy...I guess I could look it up too.

His ADP is around 9.01...in my league I would likely have to take him in the early 7th to ensure I got him. I like the upside to other WR that are around his projected tier. What do you all think?

 

[soymex]

for some reason i keep getting the feeling that reggie williams will surprise a bit this season and matt jones will dissapoint a little. reggie williams can probably be had with your last pick at this point, though maybe preseason will change this.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

for some reason i keep getting the feeling that reggie williams will surprise a bit this season and matt jones will dissapoint a little. reggie williams can probably be had with your last pick at this point, though maybe preseason will change this.

OK but why?Last year this board was drooling over matt Jones and I was not that thrilled with him...mostly because I thought he had little value in redraft leagues...he did manage to prove me wrong a bit but he didn't make anyone win a title either. Now fast forward to this season and I am getting a lot more interested in a guy the coach has annointed the starter by all off season reading material, has incredible size, and oh yeah can turn on the jets at anytime, sort of freakish.

 

[Warpig]

I've got Matt Jones as my #3 WR behind Reggie Wayne and Plax. I got a gut feeling telling me he's gonna do pretty well. I'd say 1000 - 1100 yds and 8 or 9 Td's. Yep, that's what my "magic belly" is telling me. But it could just be gas.

 

[soymex]

well if you consider that jones and leftwich were building a nice rapport and if leftwich hadn't been injured, jones stats from last season might have been even gaudier, i guess there is no reason not to like him and he could in fact be slightly undervalued.

the reggie williams thing is just a gut feeling. though i guess the rashaun woods story is showing first round WRs can be total busts.

 

[mightyeskimo]

Matt Jones: The debate is over. Matt Jones is officially the #1 in Jacksonville (ran as a Z reciever). Was exceptional on deep routes. But what impressed me the most was his route running. He's running them alot crisper this year and has made considerable strides since last year. Froze rookie dee webb on crossing routes and brined Donovan Darius on a wiggle route. Receptions all over the place'; got in front of Brian Williams for a catch and on a hook route. His two non-catches came on excellent coverage- one superb play by Rashean Mathis and another when he was slowly eased out of bounds by Williams, in which he did catch the ball but not inbounds. One of my concens (clean routes) is now adequately answered. All that remains is to see if he can get off the line cleanly. If it is another positive, this guy will ravage the league.

Jaguars Camp Report

I would take a chance on Jones as my #2 this year.

 

[soymex]

but he is getting a lot of hype. when is too early to take him?

and should he be taken over more proven recievers with more upside who you would have to reach past to take him (like kennison and rod smith)?

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I will save you some of the research MOP. His target to catch ratio was under 50% last year I believe. I would not put too much stock in that however. He was still learning and was basically a run deep guy and percentages are lower with them. He will perform better this year and I figure him to be around 800-1000 yards and 6-8 touchdowns. I would rather wait to see if I can get him as a #3 WR but he may not last that long.

 

[mightyeskimo]

but he is getting a lot of hype. when is too early to take him?and should he be taken over more proven recievers with more upside who you would have to reach past to take him (like kennison and rod smith)?

Are you in a keeper or redraft league? And what are the details?

 

[Warpig]

Depending on the size of your league, I think he can be had somewhere between the 4 and 6 rounds.

 

[(HULK)]

Matt Jones is going to outperform every prediction made thus far in this thread.

He is a special talent. He has got a natural athletism that only very few have. Now that he has built up a feel for playing WR, he is ready to start kicking some tail.

I'd definitely be comfortable taking him as my #2 or 3, and I expect he will perform as a #1. I'm gonna snap him up about a round before his ADP in every league this year.

 

[wannabee]

Guys, keep an eye out for how Jones' ankle and Williams' knee are progressing. WIlliams was on the sideline yesterday w/ an icepack on his knee while Jones is in a walking boot for his ankle.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I'm targeting Matt Jones in all of my drafts this year. He is a freakish talent similar to Randy Moss in some ways. I think he is a lock to make a Pro Bowl someday although it probably won't be this year.

His ADP is in the 8th round in most 12 team scoring formats. So you may have to reach in Round 7 to make sure you get him. A late 7th round or early 8th round pick should be good enough. I wouldn't take a chance on him slipping into Round 9 in most drafts, but keeping track of your opponents WR in the draft up to that point would help.

 

[Z-Dog]

I do like Matt Jones a lot this year, but I'm finding myself selecting Joe Horn instead of Jones, and passing on my chance to take him. I like Jones, but I'm more comfortable that Joe Horn will get 1000 and 7 TDs than Matt Jones. I guess what I'm saying is that Jones is a tad overvalued for my risk otlerances, while Joe Horn has somehow fallen off the face of the earth, and has every bit the same upside imo as Jones, except that you KNOW that Horn is the #1 on his team, and he can play WR.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I do like Matt Jones a lot this year, but I'm finding myself selecting Joe Horn instead of Jones, and passing on my chance to take him. I like Jones, but I'm more comfortable that Joe Horn will get 1000 and 7 TDs than Matt Jones. I guess what I'm saying is that Jones is a tad overvalued for my risk otlerances, while Joe Horn has somehow fallen off the face of the earth, and has every bit the same upside imo as Jones, except that you KNOW that Horn is the #1 on his team, and he can play WR.

I agree but Joe Horn is going about 3 rounds earlier than Matt Jones on average. So you could probably have both if you really wanted too.

 

[Jayrod]

I do like Matt Jones a lot this year, but I'm finding myself selecting Joe Horn instead of Jones, and passing on my chance to take him. I like Jones, but I'm more comfortable that Joe Horn will get 1000 and 7 TDs than Matt Jones. I guess what I'm saying is that Jones is a tad overvalued for my risk otlerances, while Joe Horn has somehow fallen off the face of the earth, and has every bit the same upside imo as Jones, except that you KNOW that Horn is the #1 on his team, and he can play WR.

I agree but Joe Horn is going about 3 rounds earlier than Matt Jones on average. So you could probably have both if you really wanted too.

SHHHHHHHH!!! (This is actually my plan this year)

 

[wraith5]

I agree but Joe Horn is going about 3 rounds earlier than Matt Jones on average. So you could probably have both if you really wanted too.

Exactly. I like the upside for both, but typically Jones is presenting more value.

 

[Pantherz]

One of the guys I am bouncing around with before my draft this weekend is Matt Jones. I have a hard time figuring out how effective he will be in his 2nd year. How realistic is 1,000 yd and 6-8TD? Jax is not that great at running the ball, yet they have a solid defense and with a little more offense could go far in the AFC. Lefty is not the best QB...probably not a top15 QB...not just in FF terms but just in general in the NFL. Does this limit Matt Jones upside?Wilford and Williams have got to be factored into the mix somewhere too, not sure how this impacts Jones as well. I hate to call on Jaguars homers ut some insight here would be good. Del Rio has said Jones will see an increase in targets...does anyone have his catch to target % handy...I guess I could look it up too.His ADP is around 9.01...in my league I would likely have to take him in the early 7th to ensure I got him. I like the upside to other WR that are around his projected tier. What do you all think?

Not a Jags homer but I'm also looking hard at him as WR2 or WR3 and show his ADP late in the 8th (12 team). He is in the perfect situation, has the size, has the speed and opportunity. The only reason I can think of that he may not be on my roster is the fact that there are a couple of other nice options at that time in the draft as well. The WRs going at about that point in the draft are:8.03 M Muhammed8.07 K Robinson8.09 E Kennison8.10 M Jones 8.12 D Stallworth9.04 J Porter9.06 T GlennOf that group the 2 I see with the biggest upside would be M Jones and K Robinson. As a WR2 vs. a back-up I'm sure many would go safe with Kennison. Personally I'll probably roll the dice with a "chance" at a top 15 guy with Jones or Robinson. FWIW the 1000 yards and 6-8 TDs for Jones looks not only attainable to me, but likely. If not, then the Jags are in for a rough season. Gotta admit though, my opinions on receivers have always leaned to the tall guys. Won too many times in the good old days with C Pickens and H Moore. All the "smurfs "seem to have made great strides last year.

 

[(HULK)]

Of that group the 2 I see with the biggest upside would be M Jones and K Robinson. As a WR2 vs. a back-up I'm sure many would go safe with Kennison. Personally I'll probably roll the dice with a "chance" at a top 15 guy with Jones or Robinson. FWIW the 1000 yards and 6-8 TDs for Jones looks not only attainable to me, but likely. If not, then the Jags are in for a rough season. Gotta admit though, my opinions on receivers have always leaned to the tall guys. Won too many times in the good old days with C Pickens and H Moore. All the "smurfs "seem to have made great strides last year.

The difference between Krob and Matt Jones will be touchdowns. I can't see Krob grabbing more than 6 tds (he has never been a big td producer). If everything goes right for Krob, he could pull down 1200 yards and 6 tds. But thats his ceiling. Matt Jones on the other hand is a redzone target. His ceiling is probably more like 1100 yards and 11 tds. Which is why I'd take Matt Jones over Krob every time and twice on Sundays.

 

[Pantherz]

Of that group the 2 I see with the biggest upside would be M Jones and K Robinson. As a WR2 vs. a back-up I'm sure many would go safe with Kennison. Personally I'll probably roll the dice with a "chance" at a top 15 guy with Jones or Robinson. FWIW the 1000 yards and 6-8 TDs for Jones looks not only attainable to me, but likely. If not, then the Jags are in for a rough season. Gotta admit though, my opinions on receivers have always leaned to the tall guys. Won too many times in the good old days with C Pickens and H Moore. All the "smurfs "seem to have made great strides last year.

The difference between Krob and Matt Jones will be touchdowns. I can't see Krob grabbing more than 6 tds (he has never been a big td producer). If everything goes right for Krob, he could pull down 1200 yards and 6 tds. But thats his ceiling. Matt Jones on the other hand is a redzone target. His ceiling is probably more like 1100 yards and 11 tds. Which is why I'd take Matt Jones over Krob every time and twice on Sundays.

You got a point. Was leaning a little in the Krob direction, but Jones "should" be a better red zone guy. Neither of the offenses will be huge statistically in the passing game, but thats why these guys are there in the 8th round.

 

[LHUCKS]

Most people don't have Jones projected in their top 24.

 

[-OZ-]

Jones will end the year with good stats, but if he's your #2WR, I hope you have consistancy elsewhere. We can pretty much count on a few weeks where his stats disapoint, along with others where he goes off big.

I absolutely love having him as my #4 in a 16 team league, but I don't think I'd count on him as my #2 in a 12.

I guess I do have MJ projected to finish as a top 24, but the question comes down to consistant production.

 

[-OZ-]

The WRs going at about that point in the draft are:8.03 M Muhammed8.07 K Robinson8.09 E Kennison8.10 M Jones 8.12 D Stallworth9.04 J Porter9.06 T GlennOf that group the 2 I see with the biggest upside would be M Jones and K Robinson. As a WR2 vs. a back-up I'm sure many would go safe with Kennison. Personally I'll probably roll the dice with a "chance" at a top 15 guy with Jones or Robinson.

This is exactly the question. Upside vs. consistancy. If you have to roll the dice early (like SJax/Brown, etc) then I'd probably lean towards Moose or Kennison.