Matt Kemp (1 Viewer)

[Bobcat10]

I've got this guy on my young dynasty team. Clearly he is one of my main building blocks. I just get a feeling that he's going to be the type of player we're always waiting to bust out, yet his potential keeps me sucked into not dealing him.

Another owner has been hot on my tails for him since mid last season. I think he'd overpay, but I'm not even sure what I should go for. I'm trying to get LaPorta from him for Ethier, and he says he'll probably do it, but he keeps coming back to different deals with Kemp that underwhelm me (think Buchholtz, LaPorta, and Myers).

What offer would you throw out there, if any? Maybe a bit of a high ball, who cares. If I totally decline him he'll probably move LaPorta to me and I'm thinking that might even be my best option (I can get a little bit less of a player than Ethier off the wire).

His roster:

Napoli, Berkman, Aviles, ARod, Hardy, Soriano, Cruz, Burrell, Hafner, Maybin, Weeks, LaPorta

Johan, Danks, Harden, Peavy, Erv Santana, Greinke, Harang, Buchholz, Burnett, Carpenter, JJohnson, Myers, Sheets, and some closers

Really nothing eye popping, right?

My roster:

Doumit, Loney, Alexi Ram, Ed Encarnacion, Yunel, Kemp, Choo, Ethier, Votto, Zimmerman, Gamel, Butler, Shoppach

Floyd, Litsch, Morrow, Price, Slowey, Snell, Parra, Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, Andy Miller, Hanson, and some relievers

 

[thehornet]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

 

[Bobcat10]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

Ya this team is a work in progress. Year 2 expansion where the expansion rules were unkind last season. You'd deal straight up 1 for 1? He'd do that in a second. With or without that move I'm not winning anything soon. I guess those are relatively young arms.I think I'd be able to put a multi player together....

 

[thehornet]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

Ya this team is a work in progress. Year 2 expansion where the expansion rules were unkind last season. You'd deal straight up 1 for 1? He'd do that in a second. With or without that move I'm not winning anything soon. I guess those are relatively young arms.I think I'd be able to put a multi player together....

are you saying you could get 2 of those guys for Kemp? If so, tell him you want Ervin and Greinke and dont look back. Both of these guys are yuong and have always been high prospects. They just took a little longer to realize their potential than other SP's. They will both help your team for years to come. You wont miss Kempo if you can land these 2. I am definitely in the "kemp is overrated" camp.

 

[updater]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

I think Kemp is more valuable than any of those guys

 

[thehornet]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

I think Kemp is more valuable than any of those guys

I play in a pitching heavy league, so i guess i am a biased. That being said, Ervin Santana is MUCH more valuable to me than Kemp no matter what tyope of league you are in. He is filthy. His stuff is CY good.

 

[Bobcat10]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

I think Kemp is more valuable than any of those guys

I play in a pitching heavy league, so i guess i am a biased. That being said, Ervin Santana is MUCH more valuable to me than Kemp no matter what tyope of league you are in. He is filthy. His stuff is CY good.

FWIW, this is a 7x7 Yahoo head to head (not my doing and definitely not roto).R, HR, RBI, SB, K, AVG, OPS, W, L, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP

 

[Finless]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

I think Kemp is more valuable than any of those guys

I play in a pitching heavy league, so i guess i am a biased. That being said, Ervin Santana is MUCH more valuable to me than Kemp no matter what tyope of league you are in. He is filthy. His stuff is CY good.

No he's not.

 

[Bobcat10]

I semi-offered him on the side the following:

Kemp and Butler

for

Greinke, Ervin and LaPorta

He said that was a fair asking price but he might decide to see if Cruz AND Hafner pan out before making that move. Now I gotta drive the price up somehow since he'd highly consider this.

####, if Hafner's arm falls off I could get even more off this guy. He knows that too.

 

[thehornet]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

I think Kemp is more valuable than any of those guys

I play in a pitching heavy league, so i guess i am a biased. That being said, Ervin Santana is MUCH more valuable to me than Kemp no matter what tyope of league you are in. He is filthy. His stuff is CY good.

No he's not.

um, yes he is. I didnt realize he had 35SB last year which is much more than i thought, but i'd rather have a top 10 starting pitcher than a top 25 outfielder. I think we know what we'll get outta of Kemp as he is coming into his 4th year i think?? just under 300 average, max of 20 homers and 30 SB's. Very nice numbers, but id rather have the potential CY numbers. again, im in a pitch heavy league.

 

[Finless]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

I think Kemp is more valuable than any of those guys

I play in a pitching heavy league, so i guess i am a biased. That being said, Ervin Santana is MUCH more valuable to me than Kemp no matter what tyope of league you are in. He is filthy. His stuff is CY good.

No he's not.

um, yes he is. I didnt realize he had 35SB last year which is much more than i thought, but i'd rather have a top 10 starting pitcher than a top 25 outfielder. I think we know what we'll get outta of Kemp as he is coming into his 4th year i think?? just under 300 average, max of 20 homers and 30 SB's. Very nice numbers, but id rather have the potential CY numbers. again, im in a pitch heavy league.

Oh yeah, maybe in your league. Kemp has top 10-15 potential this year. He was a top 20 outfielder last year.

 

[thehornet]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

I think Kemp is more valuable than any of those guys

I play in a pitching heavy league, so i guess i am a biased. That being said, Ervin Santana is MUCH more valuable to me than Kemp no matter what tyope of league you are in. He is filthy. His stuff is CY good.

No he's not.

um, yes he is. I didnt realize he had 35SB last year which is much more than i thought, but i'd rather have a top 10 starting pitcher than a top 25 outfielder. I think we know what we'll get outta of Kemp as he is coming into his 4th year i think?? just under 300 average, max of 20 homers and 30 SB's. Very nice numbers, but id rather have the potential CY numbers. again, im in a pitch heavy league.

Oh yeah, maybe in your league. Kemp has top 10-15 potential this year. He was a top 20 outfielder last year.

true. I gotta get on this guys bandwagon...everyone seems to love him!

 

[updater]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

I think Kemp is more valuable than any of those guys

I play in a pitching heavy league, so i guess i am a biased. That being said, Ervin Santana is MUCH more valuable to me than Kemp no matter what tyope of league you are in. He is filthy. His stuff is CY good.

No he's not.

um, yes he is. I didnt realize he had 35SB last year which is much more than i thought, but i'd rather have a top 10 starting pitcher than a top 25 outfielder. I think we know what we'll get outta of Kemp as he is coming into his 4th year i think?? just under 300 average, max of 20 homers and 30 SB's. Very nice numbers, but id rather have the potential CY numbers. again, im in a pitch heavy league.

He's 24 and has played just over 1000 MLB ABs (about 1.5 seasons total).He has probably only scratched the surface of what he will do. He's a legit 30/30 guy within a few years and is probably a 20/30 guy this season

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

I think Kemp is more valuable than any of those guys

I play in a pitching heavy league, so i guess i am a biased. That being said, Ervin Santana is MUCH more valuable to me than Kemp no matter what tyope of league you are in. He is filthy. His stuff is CY good.

woof

 

[thehornet]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

I think Kemp is more valuable than any of those guys

I play in a pitching heavy league, so i guess i am a biased. That being said, Ervin Santana is MUCH more valuable to me than Kemp no matter what tyope of league you are in. He is filthy. His stuff is CY good.

No he's not.

um, yes he is. I didnt realize he had 35SB last year which is much more than i thought, but i'd rather have a top 10 starting pitcher than a top 25 outfielder. I think we know what we'll get outta of Kemp as he is coming into his 4th year i think?? just under 300 average, max of 20 homers and 30 SB's. Very nice numbers, but id rather have the potential CY numbers. again, im in a pitch heavy league.

He's 24 and has played just over 1000 MLB ABs (about 1.5 seasons total).He has probably only scratched the surface of what he will do. He's a legit 30/30 guy within a few years and is probably a 20/30 guy this season

we'll see. I know how many guys dont pan out. Im just not sold yet.

 

[dparker713]

Given you're in a head to head league, you could try to compete sooner with pitching - but its very volatile week to week, let alone year to year. Because of that volatility, you could become dominant in pitching alot sooner than in hitting, but you're also unlikely to be able to maintain any sort of dominance.

If you decide that you want to go the more traditional route of building towards strength in the offense, I'd make sure you'd go after young players that will potentially be peaking around the same time. That said, Kemp is the best hitter on your team and possibly the guy with the best upside too - and you'd be trading him as he enters his prime. I'd build around him, not trade him away. Im not sure how deep the league is, but I'd first be looking to trade away anyone with no real prospects of improving over the next 3 years but might still have some value for a team looking to win this year.

For pitching, I'd hope that some of the younger pitchers develop into frontline starters and stock up on power bullpen arms. There's no reason for you to be going after starting pitching at this point, and you can easily punt wins and Ks and be competitive.

ETA: of the guys on his roster I'd be interested in LaPorta, Maybin, Bucholtz and JJohnson in that order.

 

[thehornet]

Given you're in a head to head league, you could try to compete sooner with pitching - but its very volatile week to week, let alone year to year. Because of that volatility, you could become dominant in pitching alot sooner than in hitting, but you're also unlikely to be able to maintain any sort of dominance. If you decide that you want to go the more traditional route of building towards strength in the offense, I'd make sure you'd go after young players that will potentially be peaking around the same time. That said, Kemp is the best hitter on your team and possibly the guy with the best upside too - and you'd be trading him as he enters his prime. I'd build around him, not trade him away. Im not sure how deep the league is, but I'd first be looking to trade away anyone with no real prospects of improving over the next 3 years but might still have some value for a team looking to win this year. For pitching, I'd hope that some of the younger pitchers develop into frontline starters and stock up on power bullpen arms. There's no reason for you to be going after starting pitching at this point, and you can easily punt wins and Ks and be competitive.ETA: of the guys on his roster I'd be interested in LaPorta, Maybin, Bucholtz and JJohnson in that order.

Great comments. My only thing with Kemp is that I dont see him as a Sizemore Bj Upton or even Granderson talent. Which is why it would be tough for me to condone making him ypur center piece. Yes, a superb piece, but not a franchise player.

 

[Bobcat10]

Stimulating....

 

[PatsWillWin]

FWIW I'm in a 12 team dynasty startup draft right now...got Kemp at 4.10 and Ervin at 8.10.

ETA: Also a HTH league.

 

[thehornet]

FWIW I'm in a 12 team dynasty startup draft right now...got Kemp at 4.10 and Ervin at 8.10. ETA: Also a HTH league.

Ya, I feel like I am throwing the OP off, so I will just reiterate that both my league are geared towards pitching a little heavier. For example, Kemp will go for about $18-22 in my league, while Santana would go for $24 easy.

 

[Bobcat10]

FWIW I'm in a 12 team dynasty startup draft right now...got Kemp at 4.10 and Ervin at 8.10. ETA: Also a HTH league.

Ya, I feel like I am throwing the OP off, so I will just reiterate that both my league are geared towards pitching a little heavier. For example, Kemp will go for about $18-22 in my league, while Santana would go for $24 easy.

I'm probably not dealing him for the likes of what has been discussed in here. The other guy just made a big trade anyways.He got Fielder and McLouth for Berkman, Myers, Harden, and KWood. Pretty lopsided if you ask me, good deal for him.It has been good discussion though. Sometimes these threads die quickly.edit: and I'm still a little worried about Kemp. Not sure what to pin it on though.

 

[MAC_32]

Given his very high G/F I would not expect the power to come in 2009, whether I'd expect it to come in 2010 (or ever) depends if that number improves. Significantly. If the power does come this year I would expect it to come at the expense of a decent drop off in batting average because his approach at the plate has trended toward smacking line drives everywhere.

He's going to run, he's going to bat plenty of guys in (I'm assuming Manny signs and Kemp bats 5th or 6th), we know that. What we don't know is what approach he'll take at the plate, this year and in the future. That will determine whether you have a potential 30/30 guy that hits for an acceptable avg, or a perennial 20/35 guy that hits for a very good avg.

 

[dparker713]

Given his very high G/F I would not expect the power to come in 2009, whether I'd expect it to come in 2010 (or ever) depends if that number improves. Significantly. If the power does come this year I would expect it to come at the expense of a decent drop off in batting average because his approach at the plate has trended toward smacking line drives everywhere.He's going to run, he's going to bat plenty of guys in (I'm assuming Manny signs and Kemp bats 5th or 6th), we know that. What we don't know is what approach he'll take at the plate, this year and in the future. That will determine whether you have a potential 30/30 guy that hits for an acceptable avg, or a perennial 20/35 guy that hits for a very good avg.

Given the league, the thing that would worry me isnt his G/F - he doesnt really need significantly more power - its his K rate. That should improve over time and if he posts a line of 95-20-90-35-.290-.815 with say 120Ks thats a easily his best hitter and not entirely unreachable for him this year if (more like when) they sign Manny. Consider that last year Hanley Ramirez posted 125-33-67-35-.301-.940 with 122Ks with a slightly worse conversion rate on the basepaths and is a consensus top 3 pick. Now, Kemp could significantly improve his value either through better base stealing (~76% last year), through becoming a middle of the order run producer, a top of the order run scorer, or with improved power. In some areas hes more likely to improve than others, but if he's able to make marginal improvements in several areas then he could develop into a first round talent. Now, he may never make those improvements, but I'd be much more willing to take a chance on him making those improvements than trading for an unproven hitter with defense crappy enough to potentially keep him off the field (Im looking at you LaPorta!) or someone like McLouth ever repeating his monster first half.

 

[MAC_32]

Given his very high G/F I would not expect the power to come in 2009, whether I'd expect it to come in 2010 (or ever) depends if that number improves. Significantly. If the power does come this year I would expect it to come at the expense of a decent drop off in batting average because his approach at the plate has trended toward smacking line drives everywhere.He's going to run, he's going to bat plenty of guys in (I'm assuming Manny signs and Kemp bats 5th or 6th), we know that. What we don't know is what approach he'll take at the plate, this year and in the future. That will determine whether you have a potential 30/30 guy that hits for an acceptable avg, or a perennial 20/35 guy that hits for a very good avg.

Given the league, the thing that would worry me isnt his G/F - he doesnt really need significantly more power - its his K rate. That should improve over time and if he posts a line of 95-20-90-35-.290-.815 with say 120Ks thats a easily his best hitter and not entirely unreachable for him this year if (more like when) they sign Manny. Consider that last year Hanley Ramirez posted 125-33-67-35-.301-.940 with 122Ks with a slightly worse conversion rate on the basepaths and is a consensus top 3 pick. Now, Kemp could significantly improve his value either through better base stealing (~76% last year), through becoming a middle of the order run producer, a top of the order run scorer, or with improved power. In some areas hes more likely to improve than others, but if he's able to make marginal improvements in several areas then he could develop into a first round talent. Now, he may never make those improvements, but I'd be much more willing to take a chance on him making those improvements than trading for an unproven hitter with defense crappy enough to potentially keep him off the field (Im looking at you LaPorta!) or someone like McLouth ever repeating his monster first half.

His K rate improved quite a bit in the 2nd half last year1st half 08 - 104 K in 338 AB (31%)2nd half 08 - 49 K in 268 AB (18%)

 

[dparker713]

Given his very high G/F I would not expect the power to come in 2009, whether I'd expect it to come in 2010 (or ever) depends if that number improves. Significantly. If the power does come this year I would expect it to come at the expense of a decent drop off in batting average because his approach at the plate has trended toward smacking line drives everywhere.He's going to run, he's going to bat plenty of guys in (I'm assuming Manny signs and Kemp bats 5th or 6th), we know that. What we don't know is what approach he'll take at the plate, this year and in the future. That will determine whether you have a potential 30/30 guy that hits for an acceptable avg, or a perennial 20/35 guy that hits for a very good avg.

Given the league, the thing that would worry me isnt his G/F - he doesnt really need significantly more power - its his K rate. That should improve over time and if he posts a line of 95-20-90-35-.290-.815 with say 120Ks thats a easily his best hitter and not entirely unreachable for him this year if (more like when) they sign Manny. Consider that last year Hanley Ramirez posted 125-33-67-35-.301-.940 with 122Ks with a slightly worse conversion rate on the basepaths and is a consensus top 3 pick. Now, Kemp could significantly improve his value either through better base stealing (~76% last year), through becoming a middle of the order run producer, a top of the order run scorer, or with improved power. In some areas hes more likely to improve than others, but if he's able to make marginal improvements in several areas then he could develop into a first round talent. Now, he may never make those improvements, but I'd be much more willing to take a chance on him making those improvements than trading for an unproven hitter with defense crappy enough to potentially keep him off the field (Im looking at you LaPorta!) or someone like McLouth ever repeating his monster first half.

His K rate improved quite a bit in the 2nd half last year1st half 08 - 104 K in 338 AB (31%)2nd half 08 - 49 K in 268 AB (18%)

He had a noticably better second half last year, but Im generally wary of half splits. But since he's a young player and just reached 1000ABs, with the notable exception of RBI and a few less SB attempts, I'm more likely to give him credit for an improved bat than just a couple of hot months.

 

[MAC_32]

Given his very high G/F I would not expect the power to come in 2009, whether I'd expect it to come in 2010 (or ever) depends if that number improves. Significantly. If the power does come this year I would expect it to come at the expense of a decent drop off in batting average because his approach at the plate has trended toward smacking line drives everywhere.He's going to run, he's going to bat plenty of guys in (I'm assuming Manny signs and Kemp bats 5th or 6th), we know that. What we don't know is what approach he'll take at the plate, this year and in the future. That will determine whether you have a potential 30/30 guy that hits for an acceptable avg, or a perennial 20/35 guy that hits for a very good avg.

Given the league, the thing that would worry me isnt his G/F - he doesnt really need significantly more power - its his K rate. That should improve over time and if he posts a line of 95-20-90-35-.290-.815 with say 120Ks thats a easily his best hitter and not entirely unreachable for him this year if (more like when) they sign Manny. Consider that last year Hanley Ramirez posted 125-33-67-35-.301-.940 with 122Ks with a slightly worse conversion rate on the basepaths and is a consensus top 3 pick. Now, Kemp could significantly improve his value either through better base stealing (~76% last year), through becoming a middle of the order run producer, a top of the order run scorer, or with improved power. In some areas hes more likely to improve than others, but if he's able to make marginal improvements in several areas then he could develop into a first round talent. Now, he may never make those improvements, but I'd be much more willing to take a chance on him making those improvements than trading for an unproven hitter with defense crappy enough to potentially keep him off the field (Im looking at you LaPorta!) or someone like McLouth ever repeating his monster first half.

His K rate improved quite a bit in the 2nd half last year1st half 08 - 104 K in 338 AB (31%)2nd half 08 - 49 K in 268 AB (18%)

He had a noticably better second half last year, but Im generally wary of half splits. But since he's a young player and just reached 1000ABs, with the notable exception of RBI and a few less SB attempts, I'm more likely to give him credit for an improved bat than just a couple of hot months.

I think Manny's presence helped Kemp immensely.

 

[dparker713]

Given his very high G/F I would not expect the power to come in 2009, whether I'd expect it to come in 2010 (or ever) depends if that number improves. Significantly. If the power does come this year I would expect it to come at the expense of a decent drop off in batting average because his approach at the plate has trended toward smacking line drives everywhere.He's going to run, he's going to bat plenty of guys in (I'm assuming Manny signs and Kemp bats 5th or 6th), we know that. What we don't know is what approach he'll take at the plate, this year and in the future. That will determine whether you have a potential 30/30 guy that hits for an acceptable avg, or a perennial 20/35 guy that hits for a very good avg.

Given the league, the thing that would worry me isnt his G/F - he doesnt really need significantly more power - its his K rate. That should improve over time and if he posts a line of 95-20-90-35-.290-.815 with say 120Ks thats a easily his best hitter and not entirely unreachable for him this year if (more like when) they sign Manny. Consider that last year Hanley Ramirez posted 125-33-67-35-.301-.940 with 122Ks with a slightly worse conversion rate on the basepaths and is a consensus top 3 pick. Now, Kemp could significantly improve his value either through better base stealing (~76% last year), through becoming a middle of the order run producer, a top of the order run scorer, or with improved power. In some areas hes more likely to improve than others, but if he's able to make marginal improvements in several areas then he could develop into a first round talent. Now, he may never make those improvements, but I'd be much more willing to take a chance on him making those improvements than trading for an unproven hitter with defense crappy enough to potentially keep him off the field (Im looking at you LaPorta!) or someone like McLouth ever repeating his monster first half.

His K rate improved quite a bit in the 2nd half last year1st half 08 - 104 K in 338 AB (31%)2nd half 08 - 49 K in 268 AB (18%)

He had a noticably better second half last year, but Im generally wary of half splits. But since he's a young player and just reached 1000ABs, with the notable exception of RBI and a few less SB attempts, I'm more likely to give him credit for an improved bat than just a couple of hot months.

I think Manny's presence helped Kemp immensely.

If Manny doesnt sign, he might drop as much as $5 immediately in my rankings, but at this point I see that as more of an inevitability.

 

[cobalt_27]

you need pitching, bad. try to trade kemp for greinke, danks, ervin or JJ.

I think Kemp is more valuable than any of those guys

I play in a pitching heavy league, so i guess i am a biased. That being said, Ervin Santana is MUCH more valuable to me than Kemp no matter what tyope of league you are in. He is filthy. His stuff is CY good.

No he's not.