I'm not sure I'll have one of these every week. But I have one right now, so here it is.
Aside from avoiding stupidly making completely horrible lineups, the surest way to make money at DFS is finding good overlays.
A good overlay is one that fills 90% or less. A great overlay is one that fills 75% or less. A fantastic overlay is one that fills 67% or less. An insanely awesome overlay is one that fills 50% or less.
I'm going to tell you how to find fantastic overlays at certain sites.
There are a few sites -- StarsDraft and FantasyDraft are two of them -- that offer guaranteed, three-person, winner-take-all contests. These sites typically have a bunch of contests that don't fill up all the way -- their 100-person contests, for example, will only get 89 entrants or whatever.
What's special about their three-person contests is that they very often attract only two entrants. That's only 67% filled, which is fantastic. (See above.) If you see a contest that already has two of the three slots filled, don't enter it. You'll fill it up and there won't be an overlay. The key is that everyone else knows this as well. Or at least most do. So if you can be the second person who signs up, you can generally count on other people to avoid being the third. They should rather go be the 90th person in the 100-person contest than be the third person in a three-person contest.
Some of the guaranteed three-person contests do fill up, but in my experience, less than half of them do. With even just a 50% chance of getting such a nice overlay, the EV is positive even for the average DFS player. (And we're all above average here, right?)
So here's the strategy I'm advocating:
1. Look for guaranteed three-person contests.
2. Be the first or second person to enter.
3. Avoid stupidly making a completely horrible lineup.
4. Profit.
Aside from avoiding stupidly making completely horrible lineups, the surest way to make money at DFS is finding good overlays.
A good overlay is one that fills 90% or less. A great overlay is one that fills 75% or less. A fantastic overlay is one that fills 67% or less. An insanely awesome overlay is one that fills 50% or less.
I'm going to tell you how to find fantastic overlays at certain sites.
There are a few sites -- StarsDraft and FantasyDraft are two of them -- that offer guaranteed, three-person, winner-take-all contests. These sites typically have a bunch of contests that don't fill up all the way -- their 100-person contests, for example, will only get 89 entrants or whatever.
What's special about their three-person contests is that they very often attract only two entrants. That's only 67% filled, which is fantastic. (See above.) If you see a contest that already has two of the three slots filled, don't enter it. You'll fill it up and there won't be an overlay. The key is that everyone else knows this as well. Or at least most do. So if you can be the second person who signs up, you can generally count on other people to avoid being the third. They should rather go be the 90th person in the 100-person contest than be the third person in a three-person contest.
Some of the guaranteed three-person contests do fill up, but in my experience, less than half of them do. With even just a 50% chance of getting such a nice overlay, the EV is positive even for the average DFS player. (And we're all above average here, right?)
So here's the strategy I'm advocating:
1. Look for guaranteed three-person contests.
2. Be the first or second person to enter.
3. Avoid stupidly making a completely horrible lineup.
4. Profit.
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