Mel Kiper Jr (1 Viewer)

[Abraham]

Mock drafts are a poor way to evaluate talent. I'd be much more interested in if their projections of talent (i.e. Kiper's Big Board) gets the players general draft area right. For example, did Kiper's top 10 get drafted in the top 20, did his 2nd 10 go somewhere between 1 and 30, did his 3rd 10 go somewhere between 10 and 40, etc. Some teams will make reaches that distort things, but for the most part a talent evaluator (particularly one profiting from their "insight") should know that Alex Smith is contending to be the top pick overall as opposed to a 3rd round choice, which is where Kiper had him March 1 of that year.

So far he has performed about a 3rd round talent. He has had some ups. But MANY downs.

Which is why talent evaluation and mock drafting are two very different things. I realize that in Kiper's business, you have to do both, and the results of the talent evaluation are judged in the abstract some years later. I think it would add credibility to Kiper and others if they published a list of their talent evaluations 3 or 4 or 5 years later showing which players panned out and which didn't.

 

[Raider Nation]

-- "John Elway-like"Just so we don't have short memories.

 

[LTF]

In terms of talent evaluation, which is all I really care about compared to whatever else that's being discussed here:

Mayock >>> Kiper

Kiper is fine, but his arrogance rubs me the wrong way at times. And I think Mayock has done a much better job in recent history of identifying the better talent coming out of college.

 

[massraider]

In terms of talent evaluation, which is all I really care about compared to whatever else that's being discussed here:Mayock >>> KiperKiper is fine, but his arrogance rubs me the wrong way at times. And I think Mayock has done a much better job in recent history of identifying the better talent coming out of college.

I don't.Mayock's big board from last year:1.Eugene Monroe OT Virginia2.Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech3.Robert Ayers DE Tennessee4.Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia5.Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State6.Jason Smith OT Baylor7.Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest8.Andre Smith OT Alabama9.B.J. Raji DT Boston College10.Mark Sanchez QB USC11.Peria Jerry DT Mississippi12.Matthew Stafford QB Georgia13.Tyson Jackson DE LSU14.Malcolm Jenkins CB15.Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri16.Josh Freeman QB Kansas State17.Darius Butler CB Connecticut18.Michael Oher OT Mississippi19.Brian Orakpo DE/LB Texas20.Chris Wells RB Ohio State You won't find too many Broncos fans that think Ayers and Moreno are two of the 4 best players in last year's draft.not to mention, he only goes 5 deep. Mayock is great, he just doesn't put himself out there as much as Kiper does.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

"JaMarcus Russell is going to immediately energize that fanbase, that football team -- on the practice field, in that locker room. Three years from now you could be looking at a guy that's certainly one of the elite top five quarterbacks in this league. ...You're talking about a 2-3 year period once he's under center. Look out because the skill level that he has is certainly John Elway-like."

-ESPN's Mel Kiper

 

[Glaven]

In terms of talent evaluation, which is all I really care about compared to whatever else that's being discussed here:Mayock >>> KiperKiper is fine, but his arrogance rubs me the wrong way at times. And I think Mayock has done a much better job in recent history of identifying the better talent coming out of college.

I don't.Mayock's big board from last year:1.Eugene Monroe OT Virginia2.Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech3.Robert Ayers DE Tennessee4.Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia5.Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State6.Jason Smith OT Baylor7.Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest8.Andre Smith OT Alabama9.B.J. Raji DT Boston College10.Mark Sanchez QB USC11.Peria Jerry DT Mississippi12.Matthew Stafford QB Georgia13.Tyson Jackson DE LSU14.Malcolm Jenkins CB15.Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri16.Josh Freeman QB Kansas State17.Darius Butler CB Connecticut18.Michael Oher OT Mississippi19.Brian Orakpo DE/LB Texas20.Chris Wells RB Ohio State You won't find too many Broncos fans that think Ayers and Moreno are two of the 4 best players in last year's draft.not to mention, he only goes 5 deep. Mayock is great, he just doesn't put himself out there as much as Kiper does.

Waiting 1 year isn't the best way to measure a draft class.

 

[Raider Nation]

"JaMarcus Russell is going to immediately energize that fanbase, that football team -- on the practice field, in that locker room. Three years from now you could be looking at a guy that's certainly one of the elite top five quarterbacks in this league. ...You're talking about a 2-3 year period once he's under center. Look out because the skill level that he has is certainly John Elway-like."-ESPN's Mel Kiper

Link?

Ummmm, post #53.

 

[Verbal Kint]

"JaMarcus Russell is going to immediately energize that fanbase, that football team -- on the practice field, in that locker room. Three years from now you could be looking at a guy that's certainly one of the elite top five quarterbacks in this league. ...You're talking about a 2-3 year period once he's under center. Look out because the skill level that he has is certainly John Elway-like."-ESPN's Mel Kiper

Link?

Ummmm, post #53.

Saw a clip of Kiper saying this on OTL the other day.

 

[QuizGuy66]

"JaMarcus Russell is going to immediately energize that fanbase, that football Nathan's Hot Dog eating contest team -- on the practice field, in that locker room. Three years from now you could be looking at a guy that's certainly one of the elite top five quarterbacks competitive eaters in this league. ...You're talking about a 2-3 year period once he's under center. Look out because the skill level that he has is certainly John ElwayKobayashi-like."

-ESPN's Mel Kiper

Fixed.-QG

 

[LTF]

In terms of talent evaluation, which is all I really care about compared to whatever else that's being discussed here:Mayock >>> KiperKiper is fine, but his arrogance rubs me the wrong way at times. And I think Mayock has done a much better job in recent history of identifying the better talent coming out of college.

I don't.Mayock's big board from last year:1.Eugene Monroe OT Virginia2.Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech3.Robert Ayers DE Tennessee4.Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia5.Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State6.Jason Smith OT Baylor7.Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest8.Andre Smith OT Alabama9.B.J. Raji DT Boston College10.Mark Sanchez QB USC11.Peria Jerry DT Mississippi12.Matthew Stafford QB Georgia13.Tyson Jackson DE LSU14.Malcolm Jenkins CB15.Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri16.Josh Freeman QB Kansas State17.Darius Butler CB Connecticut18.Michael Oher OT Mississippi19.Brian Orakpo DE/LB Texas20.Chris Wells RB Ohio State You won't find too many Broncos fans that think Ayers and Moreno are two of the 4 best players in last year's draft.not to mention, he only goes 5 deep. Mayock is great, he just doesn't put himself out there as much as Kiper does.

Waiting 1 year isn't the best way to measure a draft class.

Exactly. And I said overall, not just a one year example. I'm talking over the past few years as Kiper has been particularly bad over that time period.

 

[massraider]

Exactly. And I said overall, not just a one year example. I'm talking over the past few years as Kiper has been particularly bad over that time period.

Fair enough. Examples?

 

[JDub15]

Mel is a great mock drafter and big board guy - in terms of predicting where players will be drafted. TheHuddleReport has him as #8 overall for big boards and #3 overall for Mock Drafts (5 year averages). As someone pointed out before, guessing where a player will be drafted and evaluating him as a prospect are too vastly different things.

As for how he evaluated prospects - he doesn't seem to be very good, neither do most of the media types.

IMO there is a fundamentally flawed way that prospects are being evaluated and information is being presented by draftnicks/media types. Usually they are presented in terms of rankings by position, and sometimes a grading system is even implemented and then all players are sorted based on that. But does that really tell us anything? I.E., I love Cecil, but go look at DraftGuys and you get the same thing - what does knowing that Ben Tate is Cecil's 8th rated running back and that he runs with good balance really tell me? Same thing for Scouts, Inc - What does knowing that Tony Pike was there 83 overall prospect and that he scored a 3 in Intangibles tell me?

Plus these sites - Draftguys, NFP, ESPN Insider - they don't seem to have archives so you can never go back to see what they thought of a player - but with the way they evaluate guys does it even matter? There doesn't seem to be any definitive opinions on if a player will make it or not - and what factors will contribute to that. Going back to Ben Tate - if he has a couple of nice years and IF DraftGuys archives existed I could go back and see that Cecil had him ranked 8th and had written a few superlatives about him. Was Cecil right or wrong? Unless Ben Tate becomes an all-world running back or a spectacular bust - I probably can't really say one way or the other. Sure maybe he could have had him a few spots higher or lower in his rankings based on his production - but so what? - my point being that these traditional rankings don't really convey much useful information at all.

The best part about sites like DraftGuys or NFP is the occasional article written with a definitive opinion about a certain player. Such as Bloom's article last year on why he didn't consider James Laurinaitis to be a first round pick. Or Wes Bunting's (NFP) article this season on why he thinks Tim Tebow will make it as a pro. Why can't we get that for every player?

I didn't even realize this until I subscribed to TheHuddleReport (highly worth it for $10/year). Their analyst writes a profile on most of the highly touted prospects - Says what round he would draft them in, and then says what factors will contribute to their success or failure in the NFL. He is not afraid to give strong opinions on guys he thinks will under-perform their draft position/hype, and his archives are available so you can go and see exactly what he said about player X.

This is actual information I can use - I can see that he thinks that OT Anthony Davis should not have been drafted until the 4th round because he lacks maturity and is being over-hyped because of his athletic talent. I can see that he said that DE Jamal Anderson is a first round player but is a boom or bust pick with a buyer-beware label. This is actual information I can use!

I think other draft sites should stop presenting their information in the form of meaningless rankings and start doing what TheHuddleReport does - it's a much more fulfilling way to relate draft information. In Cecil and Bloom's case the knowledge is there - they just need to present the information differently.

 

[The Lung]

If anyone is still on the fence about Kiper, queue up this podcast. Fast forward to 9:30 and hear him drone on for over 2 1/2 minutes on how he uses his time immediately following the draft. As you listen, note the arrogance practically seeping from your speakers. The passion (almost to the point of yelling) with which he discusses using this time to "regenerate" is just about the oddest thing I have ever heard. Seriously, who talks like that? I don't care how much research he's done and how much knowledge he has; it's the manner and tone with which he speaks, and the arrogance which emanates from him like spokes of light from a lighthouse, which make him the world's biggest d0uchebag, bar none.

 

[cr8f]

Does anyone have the clip where he accused the Colts of being permanent has beens because they didn't draft Trent Dilfer?

Then their GM (don't remember who) gets on another camera and says who the #### is Mel Kiper?

 

[Raider Nation]

 

[Joe Summer]

Does anyone have the clip where he accused the Colts of being permanent has beens because they didn't draft Trent Dilfer?

Then their GM (don't remember who) gets on another camera and says who the #### is Mel Kiper?

Part of it is here:
To be fair, Kiper was right about Trev Alberts and he was sorta right about Dilfer (he would have been a major upgrade for the Colts at QB).

(P.S. Stick around for sweet 'stache on Olbermann!)

 

[Shane Falco]

the stash is awesome

 

[domvin]

Its the hair. Its dracula like.

Count draftula.