Method A vs method B (1 Viewer)

[phthalatemagic]

Say I wish to evaluate last year's offensive fantasy statistics game by game compared to an arbitrary opponent's team defense value (my own custom DPAR ratings, if you will).

Method A:

(Player X's game 1 fantasy statistics + game 2 statistics .... game 16 game statistics) * (opponent's team defense value game 1 + opponent's team defense value game 2 ... opponent's team defense value game 16)

Method B:

(Player X's game 1 fantasy statistics * opponent's team defense score game 1) + (Player X's game 2 fantasy statistics * opponent's team defense score game 2) ... (Player X's game 16 fantasy statistics * opponent's team defense score game 16)

I suspect method B is more accurate, but by how much?

Thanks for the input

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

This somewhat depends on how you're evaluating the defenses, but Method B is WAY BETTER than Method A.

Let me make a few assumptions here to show why.

I'm assuming you're trying to have a method where a player scoring 20 points vs. a bad defense is about the same as 10 pts. vs. an average team and about the same as 5 points vs. a really good defense.

Let's label "Bad" as a "1" defense. Average is 2x as good, so give that a "2". A really good / great defense is twice the average, so give that a "4".

Again this is rather arbitrary, but it helps my example.

The 20 pts vs. a bad team is the same as FP scored * team rating. In this case, team rating is a 1, so 20 x 1 = 20.

The average score of 10 * 2 for an average team again gives 20.

The 5 points vs. a great D * 4 for the defense again gives 20.

All three yield the same answer - in this case, 20.

Now, if you were to use Method B, you would have:

(20+10+5) * (1+2+4) = 35 * 7 = 245. What happened? The 20 points vs. the bad team still gets multiplied by a portion of that weak defensive opponent (the "4" in the 4+2+1=7 part). That's a big weight and throws things off.

You are much better to do this sort of thing on a game by game basis. As to how to rate your defenses, well, that's up to you - but avg. fantasy points against would be a good start.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Thanks a ton Jeff!

 

[Chase Stuart]

 

[phthalatemagic]

I'm also factoring out a static value to each player's score when compared to my defense value due to the common happening that nearly all players score a certain amount of points no matter how good the defense is. I wonder if this will make the better fantasy scores more reflective? Anyone have opinions on that?

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm also factoring out a static value to each player's score when compared to my defense value due to the common happening that nearly all players score a certain amount of points no matter how good the defense is. I wonder if this will make the better fantasy scores more reflective? Anyone have opinions on that?

Method B is better.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/0..._rearviewqb.php

I think that's what you're looking for. Note: be prepared for a New and Improved version of this article coming up.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Thanks for the link Chase