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Michael Turner Bandwagon (1 Viewer)

I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
carries yards average 1st Quarter 20 158 7.9 2nd Quarter 40 210 5.3 3rd Quarter 51 239 4.7 4th Quarter 117 650 5.6 1st Half 60 368 6.1 2nd Half 168 889 5.3
There isn't any question that he's been mostly successful whenever he's been in the there, but there also isn't much question that the bulk of his work has come in the 4th qtr (about the same as first 3 qtrs combined). It's one thing to rip off a couple longer runs when coming in for 1-3 carries in a quarter which is what he did in those first 3 qtrs. In the 4th qtr, it's a completely different game when he comes in fresh vs. a tired defense and mostly in blowouts.I know it seems like just finding excuses to put down his good #'s, but it's not. It's not saying that he won't be able to replicate those #'s if given a larger workload. It's only that I don't look at those #'s and see them as definitive proof that he'll be able to sustain them as a #1 RB.

 
I am trying to decide if Turner is worth an early pick but I believe in the end I will pass on him due to how bad ATL has become. He will certainly be the focus of the defenses especially with Alge gone.

 
You gotta remember, it's pass blocking this line struggles with more than run blocking. There's still White to stretch the field and keep D's honest. I think 1200/8 is a very realistic estimate. One question not being asked is how often will Ovie be used in goal-line packages. He's certain to be used more than he was in '07, and is likely to vulture a few.

 
I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
carries yards average 1st Quarter 20 158 7.9 2nd Quarter 40 210 5.3 3rd Quarter 51 239 4.7 4th Quarter 117 650 5.6 1st Half 60 368 6.1 2nd Half 168 889 5.3
There isn't any question that he's been mostly successful whenever he's been in the there, but there also isn't much question that the bulk of his work has come in the 4th qtr (about the same as first 3 qtrs combined). It's one thing to rip off a couple longer runs when coming in for 1-3 carries in a quarter which is what he did in those first 3 qtrs. In the 4th qtr, it's a completely different game when he comes in fresh vs. a tired defense and mostly in blowouts.I know it seems like just finding excuses to put down his good #'s, but it's not. It's not saying that he won't be able to replicate those #'s if given a larger workload. It's only that I don't look at those #'s and see them as definitive proof that he'll be able to sustain them as a #1 RB.
I don't even think it should be a question of "sustaining" his numbers. Nobody rushes for over 5 ypc as a workhorse back save either elite backs in their best career years, or guys who are on absolutely dominating running teams. It won't happen. His situation in Atlanta should bother anyone who owns him because situation is everything. It's how Portis went from averaging 5+ ypc with the Broncos to 3.8 ypc his first year (2004) in Washington.

 
MT has been an evident talent for several years, enhanced in part by playing behind LT. However, some dispute has arisen to his actual talent level due to the fact that he is a back up.

Consider the numerous previous posts in other threads (at one time there could have been an MT forum of its own) that have shown that many of his carries came in the first half or while the game was still in question, he has not been utilized heavily as a receiving back, the defenses he was playing against were prepared to play the run considering that they were facing LT, QB presence has deteriorated since Brees's departure and his snap count with the starting unit may have been limited in practice.

Granted, this will be a challenging year, given Atlanta's state (not Georgia), but if Atl can provide a balanced passing threat and some decent O line blocking, they should do much better. Consider also the uproar in camp during the Vick debacle last year. Surely there was a disruption in the backfield.

Turner will bring character to the Falcons, filling at least some of the void left in Dunn's loss, and should see plenty of opportunities. My greatest concern for MT individually is how he will handle the increased workload and Atlanta's weather.

If Atlanta firms up the O line and gets a good blocking WR to go with the newly acquired TE, (think Keyshawn type player), he could see some explosive runs. Hopefully, Norwood will get the opportunity to hit the long run a couple times a game to wear down the linebackers and d backs.

I would speculate that MT will average 25 touches a game and with the occasional long run, he should average 100+/game. TDs will depend heavily on the O but he should be a red zone favorite. I see 1600 - 1800 with 16 - 20 TD as obtainable if he plays all season.

 
I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
carries yards average 1st Quarter 20 158 7.9 2nd Quarter 40 210 5.3 3rd Quarter 51 239 4.7 4th Quarter 117 650 5.6 1st Half 60 368 6.1 2nd Half 168 889 5.3
There isn't any question that he's been mostly successful whenever he's been in the there, but there also isn't much question that the bulk of his work has come in the 4th qtr (about the same as first 3 qtrs combined). It's one thing to rip off a couple longer runs when coming in for 1-3 carries in a quarter which is what he did in those first 3 qtrs. In the 4th qtr, it's a completely different game when he comes in fresh vs. a tired defense and mostly in blowouts.I know it seems like just finding excuses to put down his good #'s, but it's not. It's not saying that he won't be able to replicate those #'s if given a larger workload. It's only that I don't look at those #'s and see them as definitive proof that he'll be able to sustain them as a #1 RB.
The point is that his career YPC in the fourth quarter is the same as his career YPC overall. So the notion that his high YPC is due to just playing in clean-up time (when defenses put nine guys in the box because they know a run is coming, by the way) is false. If you take away all of his fourth quarter carries, he still averaged 5.5 YPC.
 
Lamont Jordan, part deux.
Not quite... I can understand the comparision since their bodies are similar; same when people say that hes no different from L White But Jordan or White or even Jamal Lewis don't have the speed I see from Turner. Everyone that is compared to Turner was a pounder or grinder... Turner has that 5th gear that Portis and LT have.

I wonder who would win in a spirit... Turner or Norwood.

i saw Turner as overhyped last yr... but now people seem to be down on him; I view him as a late 2nd steal.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Lamont Jordan, part deux.
Not quite... I can understand the comparision since their bodies are similar; same when people say that hes no different from L White But Jordan or White or even Jamal Lewis don't have the speed I see from Turner. Everyone that is compared to Turner was a pounder or grinder... Turner has that 5th gear that Portis and LT have.

I wonder who would win in a spirit... Turner or Norwood.

i saw Turner as overhyped last yr... but now people seem to be down on him; I view him as a late 2nd steal.
im assuming u meant who would win in a sprint, and to answer your question i think Norwood wins, by a sizeable margin at that.
 
man oh man, i'm going to have a tough time deciding between him and ronnie brown to keep as my #2RB next season behind ADP. i have to drop one of them.
I am not on the M. Turner bandwagon, but even I will say go with Turner because I'm definately not on the Ronnie Brown bandwagon.For Turner bandwagon members, what in your mind would NOT be a successful season in terms of numbers and assuming the guy plays the full season.Of course if he gets injured along the way, that won't make anyone happy. What numbers wouldn't be kind of meh, not really what I thought.Would 1050 yards and 6 Td's be on the low side for you?
Turner's floor assuming he plays all 16 games would be comparable to Lendale White's number last year1100 rushing yards, 150 rec yards and 7 TDs.And no, i'm not comparing Turner's running style/abilities to Lendale, i'm just talking numbers.
If he gets over 300 carries Turner will absolutely average more than 3.7y/c and only 7 TD's. In another thread I pointed out that nobody has had as many carries as White and done less with them since Lamar Smith(MIA) in 2001.FF people may think Lendale White had a "solid" year because all they care about are gross stats but White was a below average RB last season that got a ton of carries.
 
I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
What defenses were those carries against?
 
I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
What defenses were those carries against?
can we quite this bandwagon... I got a draft coming up
 
I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
What defenses were those carries against?
I'm wondering what two games? If he's referring to the IND and NE games, then in the first game, LT had 7 carries. Turner didn't come in until the second quarter. He averaged 4.2 YPC and had 71 yards in 3 quarters.Either way, I don't think the defenses that had anything to do with it.

In the second game, NE, basically the whole Chargers team was injured, and they were falling apart. LT still started this game, but only saw two carries.

Still if you use just those two games and project out the season, it's 272 carries (a little low IMO), 1,088 yards, 16 rec. 90 yards. Who knows what the TDs would be, he never had a GL situation in either game, but did convert his only 3rd-short. A conservative prediction would have him at 1100-1200 yards and 8 TDs, IMO.

 
I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
What defenses were those carries against?
I'm wondering what two games? If he's referring to the IND and NE games, then in the first game, LT had 7 carries. Turner didn't come in until the second quarter. He averaged 4.2 YPC and had 71 yards in 3 quarters.Either way, I don't think the defenses that had anything to do with it.
Disagree there. He's saying "Well, look here, he played the #1 and #4 defenses in the NFL and he only averaged 4 yards per carry". ??? Is that supposed to be damning evidence? So if he had played only against top 4 defenses all season long he would "only" produce 1212 yards if he was given as many carries of a guy like Lendale White? Gee, that sucks. I guess.
 
I'm on the Turner as a player bangwagon, but WAY off the Turner situation bandwagon.

That offense will be one of the worst in the league over the next couple years, that doesn't bode we'll for MT's touchdown.

 
I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
What defenses were those carries against?
I'm wondering what two games? If he's referring to the IND and NE games, then in the first game, LT had 7 carries. Turner didn't come in until the second quarter. He averaged 4.2 YPC and had 71 yards in 3 quarters.Either way, I don't think the defenses that had anything to do with it.
Disagree there. He's saying "Well, look here, he played the #1 and #4 defenses in the NFL and he only averaged 4 yards per carry". ??? Is that supposed to be damning evidence? So if he had played only against top 4 defenses all season long he would "only" produce 1212 yards if he was given as many carries of a guy like Lendale White? Gee, that sucks. I guess.
Well for one, Indy and NE were the #3 and #4 defenses. And the Colts and Patriots were ranked 15th and 10th respectively against the run. And i doubt that MT will get as many carries as Lendale.
 
I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
What defenses were those carries against?
I'm wondering what two games? If he's referring to the IND and NE games, then in the first game, LT had 7 carries. Turner didn't come in until the second quarter. He averaged 4.2 YPC and had 71 yards in 3 quarters.Either way, I don't think the defenses that had anything to do with it.
Disagree there. He's saying "Well, look here, he played the #1 and #4 defenses in the NFL and he only averaged 4 yards per carry". ??? Is that supposed to be damning evidence? So if he had played only against top 4 defenses all season long he would "only" produce 1212 yards if he was given as many carries of a guy like Lendale White? Gee, that sucks. I guess.
Well for one, Indy and NE were the #3 and #4 defenses. And the Colts and Patriots were ranked 15th and 10th respectively against the run. And i doubt that MT will get as many carries as Lendale.
I thought you had used the stat he hadn't scored a TD. What did IND/NE finish in scoring defenses?
 
Either way, I don't think the defenses that had anything to do with it.
Disagree there. He's saying "Well, look here, he played the #1 and #4 defenses in the NFL and he only averaged 4 yards per carry". ??? Is that supposed to be damning evidence? So if he had played only against top 4 defenses all season long he would "only" produce 1212 yards if he was given as many carries of a guy like Lendale White? Gee, that sucks. I guess.
Sorry, I was saying that his "lower than average" performance in those games had little to do with the defense he was playing. More so the team situation. He played admirably, IMO, in both games, and those would be IMO some of his worse games over the course of a season as the starter.I think Turner will be excellent.
 
I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
What defenses were those carries against?
I'm wondering what two games? If he's referring to the IND and NE games, then in the first game, LT had 7 carries. Turner didn't come in until the second quarter. He averaged 4.2 YPC and had 71 yards in 3 quarters.Either way, I don't think the defenses that had anything to do with it.
Disagree there. He's saying "Well, look here, he played the #1 and #4 defenses in the NFL and he only averaged 4 yards per carry". ??? Is that supposed to be damning evidence? So if he had played only against top 4 defenses all season long he would "only" produce 1212 yards if he was given as many carries of a guy like Lendale White? Gee, that sucks. I guess.
Well for one, Indy and NE were the #3 and #4 defenses. And the Colts and Patriots were ranked 15th and 10th respectively against the run. And i doubt that MT will get as many carries as Lendale.
I thought you had used the stat he hadn't scored a TD. What did IND/NE finish in scoring defenses?
I used other stats besides TDs. But anyway, the Patriots were tied for 3rd in rushing TDs allowed and the Colts were tied for 9th.
 
As long as Art Shell doesn't become the Falcons head coach, he should put up good numbers...... RB8 - 12 range.

 
I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
What defenses were those carries against?
I'm wondering what two games? If he's referring to the IND and NE games, then in the first game, LT had 7 carries. Turner didn't come in until the second quarter. He averaged 4.2 YPC and had 71 yards in 3 quarters.Either way, I don't think the defenses that had anything to do with it.
Disagree there. He's saying "Well, look here, he played the #1 and #4 defenses in the NFL and he only averaged 4 yards per carry". ??? Is that supposed to be damning evidence? So if he had played only against top 4 defenses all season long he would "only" produce 1212 yards if he was given as many carries of a guy like Lendale White? Gee, that sucks. I guess.
Well for one, Indy and NE were the #3 and #4 defenses. And the Colts and Patriots were ranked 15th and 10th respectively against the run. And i doubt that MT will get as many carries as Lendale.
I thought you had used the stat he hadn't scored a TD. What did IND/NE finish in scoring defenses?
I used other stats besides TDs. But anyway, the Patriots were tied for 3rd in rushing TDs allowed and the Colts were tied for 9th.
So he only averaged 4y/c against two teams that were near the top in almost every defensive category and in the top half of the league in every defensive category. And he averaged more y/c in the first half of games than in the second halves of games. Got it.
 
I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
What defenses were those carries against?
I'm wondering what two games? If he's referring to the IND and NE games, then in the first game, LT had 7 carries. Turner didn't come in until the second quarter. He averaged 4.2 YPC and had 71 yards in 3 quarters.Either way, I don't think the defenses that had anything to do with it.
Disagree there. He's saying "Well, look here, he played the #1 and #4 defenses in the NFL and he only averaged 4 yards per carry". ??? Is that supposed to be damning evidence? So if he had played only against top 4 defenses all season long he would "only" produce 1212 yards if he was given as many carries of a guy like Lendale White? Gee, that sucks. I guess.
Well for one, Indy and NE were the #3 and #4 defenses. And the Colts and Patriots were ranked 15th and 10th respectively against the run. And i doubt that MT will get as many carries as Lendale.
I thought you had used the stat he hadn't scored a TD. What did IND/NE finish in scoring defenses?
I used other stats besides TDs. But anyway, the Patriots were tied for 3rd in rushing TDs allowed and the Colts were tied for 9th.
So he only averaged 4y/c against two teams that were near the top in almost every defensive category and in the top half of the league in every defensive category. And he averaged more y/c in the first half of games than in the second halves of games. Got it.
Code:
carries   yards  average 1st Quarter	 20	   158	 7.9 2nd Quarter	 40	   210	 5.3 3rd Quarter	 51	   239	 4.7 4th Quarter	117	   650	 5.6 1st Half		60	   368	 6.1 2nd Half	   168	   889	 5.3
So you just ignore the discrepancy between the number of carries between the first and second half he had?
 
I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
What defenses were those carries against?
I'm wondering what two games? If he's referring to the IND and NE games, then in the first game, LT had 7 carries. Turner didn't come in until the second quarter. He averaged 4.2 YPC and had 71 yards in 3 quarters.Either way, I don't think the defenses that had anything to do with it.
Disagree there. He's saying "Well, look here, he played the #1 and #4 defenses in the NFL and he only averaged 4 yards per carry". ??? Is that supposed to be damning evidence? So if he had played only against top 4 defenses all season long he would "only" produce 1212 yards if he was given as many carries of a guy like Lendale White? Gee, that sucks. I guess.
Well for one, Indy and NE were the #3 and #4 defenses. And the Colts and Patriots were ranked 15th and 10th respectively against the run. And i doubt that MT will get as many carries as Lendale.
I thought you had used the stat he hadn't scored a TD. What did IND/NE finish in scoring defenses?
I used other stats besides TDs. But anyway, the Patriots were tied for 3rd in rushing TDs allowed and the Colts were tied for 9th.
So he only averaged 4y/c against two teams that were near the top in almost every defensive category and in the top half of the league in every defensive category. And he averaged more y/c in the first half of games than in the second halves of games. Got it.
carries yards average 1st Quarter 20 158 7.9 2nd Quarter 40 210 5.3 3rd Quarter 51 239 4.7 4th Quarter 117 650 5.6 1st Half 60 368 6.1 2nd Half 168 889 5.3So you just ignore the discrepancy between the number of carries between the first and second half he had?
I wish that he would have had more*. *Assuming of course it wasn't against NE/IND defenses.

 
Code:
carries   yards  average 1st Quarter	 20	   158	 7.9 2nd Quarter	 40	   210	 5.3 3rd Quarter	 51	   239	 4.7 4th Quarter	117	   650	 5.6 1st Half		60	   368	 6.1 2nd Half	   168	   889	 5.3
So you just ignore the discrepancy between the number of carries between the first and second half he had?
I'm not sure what negative conclusion can be drawn from the difference in number of carries between quarters or halves. If, for instance his first half carries were at a 3.2YPC, and his second half were 6.1YPC - then I might say that there is a correlation between his success and the situation.In this case though, there isn't a single quarter where his carriers were at a subpar NFL clip. I mean, 4.7YPC in the _third_ quarter is his worst. And I highly doubt that supports the point you are trying to prove with this data.Fact is, that Turner had more carries in the 4th because he was the backup to LT, so LT was going to play MOST of the game. However, there's nothing to indicate his success is attributable to those 2nd half, 4th quarter carries. His 1st quarter carries have the highest YPC.
 
people seem to be worried about the falcon's qb situation for this year but i don't understand why? he only has to do two thing's. 1.) get under center and take the snap clean . 2.) hand it to the burner.....

see ya......

 
I dont see it. He was given the opportunity to basically play the entire game twice this year and he had 34 carries, 136 yards and 0 TDs. The times when he was successful was when he came in during the 4th quarter when he was fresh and the defense was beat up. In a draft, whether it be redraft or dynasty, i would let someone else draft him as he has a lot of hype which will increase his ADP to where it doesnt belong.
carries yards average 1st Quarter 20 158 7.9 2nd Quarter 40 210 5.3 3rd Quarter 51 239 4.7 4th Quarter 117 650 5.6 1st Half 60 368 6.1 2nd Half 168 889 5.3
There isn't any question that he's been mostly successful whenever he's been in the there, but there also isn't much question that the bulk of his work has come in the 4th qtr (about the same as first 3 qtrs combined). It's one thing to rip off a couple longer runs when coming in for 1-3 carries in a quarter which is what he did in those first 3 qtrs. In the 4th qtr, it's a completely different game when he comes in fresh vs. a tired defense and mostly in blowouts.I know it seems like just finding excuses to put down his good #'s, but it's not. It's not saying that he won't be able to replicate those #'s if given a larger workload. It's only that I don't look at those #'s and see them as definitive proof that he'll be able to sustain them as a #1 RB.
I tend to look at the talent of the guy more than just the numbers. But, one point is that you could look at the 4th quarter numbers with the hypothesis that he came in fresh against a tired defense and that is why he played well or you could say that when teams were doing nothing but trying to stop the run, Turner still had success as they ran out the clock.I watch Turner and I see a talented player. I have said this a few times and I see a rich mans Lamont Jordan.

 
Lamont Jordan, part deux.
Not quite... I can understand the comparision since their bodies are similar; same when people say that hes no different from L White But Jordan or White or even Jamal Lewis don't have the speed I see from Turner. Everyone that is compared to Turner was a pounder or grinder... Turner has that 5th gear that Portis and LT have.

I wonder who would win in a spirit... Turner or Norwood.

i saw Turner as overhyped last yr... but now people seem to be down on him; I view him as a late 2nd steal.
im assuming u meant who would win in a sprint, and to answer your question i think Norwood wins, by a sizeable margin at that.
a 50 yard run I would bet on Turner
 
Lamont Jordan, part deux.
Not quite... I can understand the comparision since their bodies are similar; same when people say that hes no different from L White But Jordan or White or even Jamal Lewis don't have the speed I see from Turner. Everyone that is compared to Turner was a pounder or grinder... Turner has that 5th gear that Portis and LT have.

I wonder who would win in a spirit... Turner or Norwood.

i saw Turner as overhyped last yr... but now people seem to be down on him; I view him as a late 2nd steal.
im assuming u meant who would win in a sprint, and to answer your question i think Norwood wins, by a sizeable margin at that.
a 50 yard run I would bet on Turner
i wouldn't :shrug:
 

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