Mid-Draft decisions...and the Draft Dominator (1 Viewer)

[Steve in Minneapolis]

I absolutely love the Draft Dominator... I feel it takes a lot of the guess work out of the draft and gives me a decided edge against the competition.

As I am prepping for this season, I have decided to spend more time doing some analysis of our scoring system and how I can improve my draft. My hope is to help make better informed decisions in the mid-late rounds.

I have a few ideas, and I have run some analysis, but I am not sure that they truly add much to what is already available in the DD...and I am hoping some of you will help me flesh this out, shoot holes in it or come with better ideas/examples of what you do to help with those same decisions.

Like most, I break down each position into Tiers so I know how many players for that position are still left in that Tier...I put that info into the Notes1 column.

As a next step, I have been thinking about breaking down QB/RB/WR into scoring tiers (regardless of position). When I first did this analysis, it surprised me a little. (I'll show the numbers below) I now know how many players there are at each scoring tier (ie 10pts/wk, 8pts/wk, etc). I have thought about using this info as a second piece to help me make decisions, but I am not sure that it really does me any good, or provides any better info than the 'Drop Value' and DVBD values in the Draft Dominator.

I have no idea if I am being clear, so I will try posting some numbers...and let me know how(if) you would use this to help make decisions:

I don't want to make this about my specific league, but for the sake of discussion, here is the scoring system:

1/25 passing, 1/10 rushing/receiving

TDs - 3 passing, 6 rush/rec No INT/fum deduction

1QB/2RB/2WR-TE/1K/1Def 1 flex(QB/RB/WR-TE)

For the past 3 years there have been, on average, the following number of players that finished the year at the following scoring levels: (counts are cumulative) (a preliminary look at the projections for the DD shows that the current projections hold fairly close to these numbers as well)

16pt/wk 4QB - 2RB - 0WR-TE

14pt/wk 9QB - 3RB - 0WR-TE

12pt/wk 15QB - 8 RB - 2WR-TE

10pt/wk 19QB - 12RB - 7WR-TE

8pt/wk 23QB - 21RB - 17WR-TE

6pt/wk 27QB - 35RB - 40 WR-TE

Based on this info, there are definitely sweet-spots at where there are large tiers of players grouped together, and i am trying to decide how best to use this info to create a better draft plan and make better decisions mid-draft....

Do any of you any of you do similar analysis? Do you have any thoughts on on what(if anything) I should do next or how best to apply this data?

Thanks in advance for your thoughts...

 

[GoBears84]

I absolutely love the Draft Dominator... I feel it takes a lot of the guess work out of the draft and gives me a decided edge against the competition.As I am prepping for this season, I have decided to spend more time doing some analysis of our scoring system and how I can improve my draft. My hope is to help make better informed decisions in the mid-late rounds.I have a few ideas, and I have run some analysis, but I am not sure that they truly add much to what is already available in the DD...and I am hoping some of you will help me flesh this out, shoot holes in it or come with better ideas/examples of what you do to help with those same decisions.Like most, I break down each position into Tiers so I know how many players for that position are still left in that Tier...I put that info into the Notes1 column. As a next step, I have been thinking about breaking down QB/RB/WR into scoring tiers (regardless of position). When I first did this analysis, it surprised me a little. (I'll show the numbers below) I now know how many players there are at each scoring tier (ie 10pts/wk, 8pts/wk, etc). I have thought about using this info as a second piece to help me make decisions, but I am not sure that it really does me any good, or provides any better info than the 'Drop Value' and DVBD values in the Draft Dominator. I have no idea if I am being clear, so I will try posting some numbers...and let me know how(if) you would use this to help make decisions:I don't want to make this about my specific league, but for the sake of discussion, here is the scoring system:1/25 passing, 1/10 rushing/receiving TDs - 3 passing, 6 rush/rec No INT/fum deduction1QB/2RB/2WR-TE/1K/1Def 1 flex(QB/RB/WR-TE)For the past 3 years there have been, on average, the following number of players that finished the year at the following scoring levels: (counts are cumulative) (a preliminary look at the projections for the DD shows that the current projections hold fairly close to these numbers as well)16pt/wk 4QB - 2RB - 0WR-TE14pt/wk 9QB - 3RB - 0WR-TE12pt/wk 15QB - 8 RB - 2WR-TE10pt/wk 19QB - 12RB - 7WR-TE8pt/wk 23QB - 21RB - 17WR-TE6pt/wk 27QB - 35RB - 40 WR-TEBased on this info, there are definitely sweet-spots at where there are large tiers of players grouped together, and i am trying to decide how best to use this info to create a better draft plan and make better decisions mid-draft....Do any of you any of you do similar analysis? Do you have any thoughts on on what(if anything) I should do next or how best to apply this data?Thanks in advance for your thoughts...

I'm having a problem getting my head around how this would be better than DVBD used injunction with an ADP_USER customized for your league? Properly setup the DD would tell you how many players might come off the board at specific positions and the potential drop in value for each position.It becomes a trade off between the most possible points on the board and the drop in value at a position by passing on a position (for example drafting a 12 pt/game WR when you have 3 already and you can get a 10 pt/game WR next round passing a 10pt/game TE when you need one and having to draft a 6 pt/game TE in the following round). If you go WR/TE you end up with 18 points/gm - but if you went TE/WR you'd be a 20p/gm.

 

[Steve in Minneapolis]

I'm not certain it would be better...but I know when I have been on the clock in mid-rounds the past several years, I am typically trying to decide between 5-8 players. (a couple at each of the QB/RB/WR positions) At that point in the draft, their projections are likely fairly close, so I am trying to come up with an easy way to understand scoring tiers across positions that is easy to see quickly. Or find another data point that helps to formulate which is the best pick.

I feel like there might be something there...but perhaps not...

ETA: I understand the DVB helps do exactly what I described... but it gives you a single data point, versus 'there are 12 players left in this scoring tier, and 5 are WR, 5 are RB and 2 are QB...' which would help you know better whom to pick. Especially if it is forecasting there to be only two QBs to go before your next pick...you would like to know that maybe you should grab one, since there are plenty of WRs/RBs left in that tier...

 

[GoBears84]

I'm not certain it would be better...but I know when I have been on the clock in mid-rounds the past several years, I am typically trying to decide between 5-8 players. (a couple at each of the QB/RB/WR positions) At that point in the draft, their projections are likely fairly close, so I am trying to come up with an easy way to understand scoring tiers across positions that is easy to see quickly. Or find another data point that helps to formulate which is the best pick. I feel like there might be something there...but perhaps not...ETA: I understand the DVB helps do exactly what I described... but it gives you a single data point, versus 'there are 12 players left in this scoring tier, and 5 are WR, 5 are RB and 2 are QB...' which would help you know better whom to pick. Especially if it is forecasting there to be only two QBs to go before your next pick...you would like to know that maybe you should grab one, since there are plenty of WRs/RBs left in that tier...

To me this is where the DD shines. The Best Value window will tell you the potential # of players to get drafted @ each position before your next pick. You can go over to the player pool and check by position who is left and their corresponding point projections. You can quickly check BYE weeks to see conflicts. Finally, you can go to GameByGame and find complimentary players - any or by position - who match up will based on the projections and correspond SOS of your drafted players.