Mike Shananigan! (1 Viewer)

[pwakefield77]

i'd like to talk about mike shanahan and how he uses his running backs. Seems like any time i bring this up it's almost like an automated response "Sorry you've reached the voicemail of we're not sure what running back mike will use this week. at the tone please leave your name, number and a brief message of frustration". Is this topic really that simple? Is the answer when it comes to looking at roy helu to just completely avoid the washington backfield this year or is there more to the story. Has mike shanahan always been like this? I feel like there have been periods in mike's career in which he really has had one guy. mike anderson? clinton portis? i'd like to hear whether the shark pool thinks "in mike shanahan we do not trust" OR are there some out there that think roy helu could be the guy this year and has real value in the 4th/5th round?

 

[_lurker_]

He does prefer a bellcow... one that is good, healthy and doesn't fumble, but he hasn't had one in years

 

[Coin Flip]

Terrell Davis years, was that Shanny too or who was that coach?

 

[pwakefield77]

yeah coinflip that was shanny

 

[B Maverick]

My Post

I started this post last year on the same topic. Never did buy the Shanny hate.

Ultimately found:

13 seasons

7 seasons 1 RB carried 50% or more of the rushes in a season

2 more season with a RB carrying 47% -50% of the rushes in a season

1 season with top back getting 44%/1000yrds and 2nd back with 32%/900yrds

3 season: 2001, 2007 and 2008 poster years of the Skeletor hate, even splits between 2 or more backs, some injuries, some bad rbs.

6 changes due to lead RB injured

3 changes due to trade

1 change for player released

I havent looked at 2011's split, but with Hightower getting injured then Helu injured it looks like another 3 way split. Without the injury, I hazard a guess that we would have had an 8th season of 1 RB carried 50% or more of the rushes in a season.

ETA, would be curious to see how that stacks up to other coaches and their rb usage.

 

[pwakefield77]

great info B maverick. after reading your post i'm leaning towards assuming that IF helu stays healthy, he posts some really good numbers?? is that the way you're leaning? i feel like helu is on the field and it's his job to lose. that shanny only starts moving around once people start getting hurt.

 

[Sidewinder16]

As a Redskins fan, what I think I've learned the past two years is that Shanahan simply isn't going to divulge any kind of info that could possibly give his opponent an advantage, or at the very least, give them the least amount of concrete info to work with.

When Shanahan has had a back that is far and away the best back on the roster (i.e. Davis or Portis) it's not rocket science who will be the starter. But if he has multiple backs with similar abilities, or different backs with different strengths, he's going to decide, almost on a week to week basis, which back gives him the best chance to win against a particular opponent. Alot of that decision is going to come from who is getting first team reps, how they are practicing and what the game plan is for the week. The vast majority of that decision-making info is never going to see the light of day, so it's often going to be a guessing game for FFers regarding which RB will start.

Right now, there isn't a back that stands out as the absolute best on the roster. Both Helu and Royster showed well last year. The team drafted Alfred Morris (so there is obviously something they like about him) and has talked about wanting to re-sign Tim Hightower, who has looked good at times, too. IMO, Helu is the best bet to get the most work in the 2012 season, but he's far from a sure bet right now.

 

[B Maverick]

great info B maverick. after reading your post i'm leaning towards assuming that IF helu stays healthy, he posts some really good numbers?? is that the way you're leaning? i feel like helu is on the field and it's his job to lose. that shanny only starts moving around once people start getting hurt.

I love Helu this year. He may not equal Portis' numbers but I could see him having that kind of impact. Even with Portis, Shanny didnt hand him the job as a rookie (partly due to fumbles) but when he got going he was a beast. It may not be publically said, but I wonder if Shanny doesnt like to start rookie rbs? Either way, despite Royster looking good in the last couple games, I think Helu is the guy to have, esp with his ability to catch the ball.

 

[pwakefield77]

sidewinder great info. that's not what i like to hear on helu if i'm going to invest a 4th/5th round pick. so you really don't think helu is the man there, you think it's gonna be a committee. and that helu isn't head and shoulders above the rest?

 

[Sidewinder16]

sidewinder great info. that's not what i like to hear on helu if i'm going to invest a 4th/5th round pick. so you really don't think helu is the man there, you think it's gonna be a committee. and that helu isn't head and shoulders above the rest?

I'm not convinced Helu is absolutely the best in the coaches eyes, because I don't see everything they see. And, I don't necessarily think it's going to be committee by design.From what I have seen, I'd pick Helu for a fantasy team over any of the other backs, but as a #2 back (4th/5th round pick) I would say he's very risky. I'm not sure I'm comfortable making that investment in him at this point.

 

[dgreen]

sidewinder great info. that's not what i like to hear on helu if i'm going to invest a 4th/5th round pick. so you really don't think helu is the man there, you think it's gonna be a committee. and that helu isn't head and shoulders above the rest?

"The rest" right now is basically Royster and Morris. I think Helu showed better skills last year than Royster. Royster was more the beneficiary of improved OL play towards the end of the season. Helu showed more ability to make guys miss in the open field and run away from defenders. He doesn't have blazing speed, but he has enough to do some damage. He's also a better receiver than Royster. Right now, I think it's fair to say Helu is above Morris since Morris was a late-round pick and has never taken an NFL snap.Is he "head and shoulders" above them? I don't know about that, but I would say he's the favorite as of today and is in line for a decent workload if the roster doesn't change. If Hightower re-signs, or if they get someone else of relatively equal value, then it will be more of what Sidewinder16 described.

 

[loose circuits]

great info B maverick. after reading your post i'm leaning towards assuming that IF helu stays healthy, he posts some really good numbers?? is that the way you're leaning? i feel like helu is on the field and it's his job to lose. that shanny only starts moving around once people start getting hurt.

I love Helu this year. He may not equal Portis' numbers but I could see him having that kind of impact. Even with Portis, Shanny didnt hand him the job as a rookie (partly due to fumbles) but when he got going he was a beast. It may not be publically said, but I wonder if Shanny doesnt like to start rookie rbs? Either way, despite Royster looking good in the last couple games, I think Helu is the guy to have, esp with his ability to catch the ball.

 

[pwakefield77]

in that 4th/5th round i'm really looking at 4ish rb2s. helu, beanie wells, doug martin, law firm are all in the conversation for finding that middle round value. each have pros and cons. how would you guys rank those 4 guys with a brief reason how you're ranking them.

 

[B Maverick]

in that 4th/5th round i'm really looking at 4ish rb2s. helu, beanie wells, doug martin, law firm are all in the conversation for finding that middle round value. each have pros and cons. how would you guys rank those 4 guys with a brief reason how you're ranking them.

I think Wells is probably the safest pick with Helu being the highest ceiling esp in PPR. Martin could go either way and I think he will be the starter over Blount (not a fan of his) but you can not deny what Blount has done. I would have to guess Martin would get more catches then Blount. And as much as I like the Law Firm, I would rank him 4th of this group, although to be fair, I wouldnt be too disappointed if I had him as a #3. Wells<Helu<Martin<BJGE

 

[dgreen]

From what I have seen, I'd pick Helu for a fantasy team over any of the other backs, but as a #2 back (4th/5th round pick) I would say he's very risky. I'm not sure I'm comfortable making that investment in him at this point.

He had 200 touches for 1000 yards last year despite the inconsistent playing time. He was RB31 under PFR scoring. He basically matched Blount and Murray on similar number of touches. If the roster doesn't change, I'd guess Helu can reach the RB2 range in 2012.Of course, we aren't really sure what this offense will look like with RG3.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

in that 4th/5th round i'm really looking at 4ish rb2s. helu, beanie wells, doug martin, law firm are all in the conversation for finding that middle round value. each have pros and cons. how would you guys rank those 4 guys with a brief reason how you're ranking them.

1.) Martin - like the player, like the situation (think Blount sucks and TB will bounce back on offense w/ the additions)2.) BJGE - he's not exciting, but he should be able to equal what Benson did - some TD upside if the offense gets better - zero competition3.) Wells - never have liked him, think he's soft - by the end of the year I think RBBC w/ Williams, who is more explosive IMO4.) Helu - think he's just a RBBC guy, not a believer at all

 

[pwakefield77]

coeur de lion - martin and law firm both have top 10 o lines while wells and helu have bottom 10 lines, make that bottom 5 lines

 

[JaYz0618]

I have a nice post about shannys denver days, ill see if i can find it. Hes not as awful as we tend to think

 

[pwakefield77]

yeah see if you can dig it up jayz

 

[dgreen]

From what I have seen, I'd pick Helu for a fantasy team over any of the other backs, but as a #2 back (4th/5th round pick) I would say he's very risky. I'm not sure I'm comfortable making that investment in him at this point.

He had 200 touches for 1000 yards last year despite the inconsistent playing time. He was RB31 under PFR scoring. He basically matched Blount and Murray on similar number of touches. If the roster doesn't change, I'd guess Helu can reach the RB2 range in 2012.Of course, we aren't really sure what this offense will look like with RG3.

And just like that, Hightower is back.

 

[VA703]

he goes with whoever is playing the best at the time. this can switch weekly based on camp

its not worth investing in. even the receivers are hard to pinpoint

 

[Warrior]

My Post

I started this post last year on the same topic. Never did buy the Shanny hate.

Ultimately found:

13 seasons

7 seasons 1 RB carried 50% or more of the rushes in a season

2 more season with a RB carrying 47% -50% of the rushes in a season

1 season with top back getting 44%/1000yrds and 2nd back with 32%/900yrds

3 season: 2001, 2007 and 2008 poster years of the Skeletor hate, even splits between 2 or more backs, some injuries, some bad rbs.

6 changes due to lead RB injured

3 changes due to trade

1 change for player released

I havent looked at 2011's split, but with Hightower getting injured then Helu injured it looks like another 3 way split. Without the injury, I hazard a guess that we would have had an 8th season of 1 RB carried 50% or more of the rushes in a season.

ETA, would be curious to see how that stacks up to other coaches and their rb usage.

Getting 51% of the carries doesn't exactly equate to him using a single bell-cow running back..

 

[GregR]

My Post

I started this post last year on the same topic. Never did buy the Shanny hate.

Ultimately found:

13 seasons

7 seasons 1 RB carried 50% or more of the rushes in a season

2 more season with a RB carrying 47% -50% of the rushes in a season

1 season with top back getting 44%/1000yrds and 2nd back with 32%/900yrds

3 season: 2001, 2007 and 2008 poster years of the Skeletor hate, even splits between 2 or more backs, some injuries, some bad rbs.

6 changes due to lead RB injured

3 changes due to trade

1 change for player released

I havent looked at 2011's split, but with Hightower getting injured then Helu injured it looks like another 3 way split. Without the injury, I hazard a guess that we would have had an 8th season of 1 RB carried 50% or more of the rushes in a season.

ETA, would be curious to see how that stacks up to other coaches and their rb usage.

Getting 51% of the carries doesn't exactly equate to him using a single bell-cow running back..

Right. If the perceived problem was "whether at the end of the year one RB will have had a majority of the carries", then those stats would be useful in telling if it really is a problem.The actual perceived problem is, "compared to other coaches, you're less sure in any given week which RB will be featured". That some back was featured isn't the issue, it's whether the back we expected was the one who was featured.

I think Sidewinder16 summed the situation up pretty well in post #7. If he's got a superior back he'll stick with him. If he doesn't, you can still get a worthwhile fantasy starter out of his RBs, but you're going to sometimes pull your hair out when he switches which RB he features without anything to hint it was coming. We probably remember it worse than it really was and attribute as Shanahanigans some switches due to injure and the like. But I'm comfortable saying he's definitely one of the coaches most likely to switch things up without any warning.

 

[Sidewinder16]

From what I have seen, I'd pick Helu for a fantasy team over any of the other backs, but as a #2 back (4th/5th round pick) I would say he's very risky. I'm not sure I'm comfortable making that investment in him at this point.

He had 200 touches for 1000 yards last year despite the inconsistent playing time. He was RB31 under PFR scoring. He basically matched Blount and Murray on similar number of touches. If the roster doesn't change, I'd guess Helu can reach the RB2 range in 2012.Of course, we aren't really sure what this offense will look like with RG3.

Change in the roster notwithstanding, my risk assessment isn't based on what he was able to accomplish on the field last year. My hesitation with him as a FF #2 back is more based on the fact that it took Tim Hightower's season ending injury and Ryan Torain's ineptitude for Helu to even garner games with 20+ touches (John Beck's "dump off" game excluded). That may have been as much of a veteran vs. rookie deal than a "who's the better RB" deal, but it at least tells me that Helu is no Terrell Davis or Clinton Portis. Which tells me that it is quite possible for another RB to step up and out perform him, or for the coaches to see another RB as a better option against an opponent in any given week.

 

[Sweet Love]

My Post

I started this post last year on the same topic. Never did buy the Shanny hate.

Ultimately found:

13 seasons

7 seasons 1 RB carried 50% or more of the rushes in a season

2 more season with a RB carrying 47% -50% of the rushes in a season

1 season with top back getting 44%/1000yrds and 2nd back with 32%/900yrds

3 season: 2001, 2007 and 2008 poster years of the Skeletor hate, even splits between 2 or more backs, some injuries, some bad rbs.

6 changes due to lead RB injured

3 changes due to trade

1 change for player released

I havent looked at 2011's split, but with Hightower getting injured then Helu injured it looks like another 3 way split. Without the injury, I hazard a guess that we would have had an 8th season of 1 RB carried 50% or more of the rushes in a season.

ETA, would be curious to see how that stacks up to other coaches and their rb usage.

Getting 51% of the carries doesn't exactly equate to him using a single bell-cow running back..

Right. If the perceived problem was "whether at the end of the year one RB will have had a majority of the carries", then those stats would be useful in telling if it really is a problem.The actual perceived problem is, "compared to other coaches, you're less sure in any given week which RB will be featured". That some back was featured isn't the issue, it's whether the back we expected was the one who was featured.

I think Sidewinder16 summed the situation up pretty well in post #7. If he's got a superior back he'll stick with him. If he doesn't, you can still get a worthwhile fantasy starter out of his RBs, but you're going to sometimes pull your hair out when he switches which RB he features without anything to hint it was coming. We probably remember it worse than it really was and attribute as Shanahanigans some switches due to injure and the like. But I'm comfortable saying he's definitely one of the coaches most likely to switch things up without any warning.

In the end, he is very similar to Bellicheck. Each "wants" or would prefer a guy to depend on week in and out, but neither will invest in getting someone who is a bonafide top 10 going into the year based on ability. It is fine from an NFL standpoint, as coaches/GMs have to make decisions on where to invest and these two have felt they can cobble together a running game, so they can funnel their resources in other areas...and that is fine. We would not even notice, if not for the fact that if someone is featured (even for a game or so), they didn't set the world on fire (look up the Miami individual rushing stats for the last 8 years...no one is whining about that).Truth is, when they do have a great one, they run the heck out of him (Davis/portis/Anderson and Dillon). While it sucks for our hobby, they have really shown how "plug and play" the next level beyond very good RBs, truly are.