Miles Austin (1 Viewer)

[aj2631]

Sup Experts, Am i the only person that thinks that Austin will just explod this year..When i say expload ......I mean top 2 numbers ......90 rec 1400 yds 12 Td's

I really dont remember feeling this good about a Wr in a while. I may be wrong but my gut is telling me that he's going to show his ### this year......

Do yall think i'm overhyping him or i'm i accurate? thanks.

 

[gianmarco]

Lots of discussion here

 

[Pickle Rody]

Nope.

No real reason or expert thought behind my feelings..........just a truly gut call. I'm betting I'm right, but I have absolutely no empirical, nor statistical, proof to back it up.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

OP brought to you by drinking from the Stanley Cup.

 

[bostonfred]

It's easy to be optimistic about everyone in the spring and summer. Just take last year's numbers, and assume that the players are going to improve. Especially young players, or players who seemed to emerge throughout the year. Not everybody improves, of course, so the trick is figuring out which players will actually get better, and which won't.

So let's break down his season and see if there's reason for optimism.

First of all, he wasn't a starter early on. His first four games, he had 5 catches for 81 yards, total, with no TDs, and got shut out entirely in week 3. That's good news for people who think Austin will put up even bigger numbers as a full-year starter. It seems like one of the big reasons people are expecting his numbers to improve next year is that he put up huge numbers while only starting 12 games.

But the flip side of that coin is weeks 5 and 6, when Austin put up his biggest games of the season. 10 catches for 250 yards and 2 TDs against Kansas City. 6 more catches for 171 and 2 TDs. 16 catches for 421 yards and 4 TDs is about a third of his production last year, and he put it up in his first two games as a starter when his opponents had no reason to gameplan for him.

It's hardly reasonable to hold his first four weeks against him, nor to assume he'll catch opponents by surprise like he did against KC and Atlanta. So let's look at his final ten weeks of the season. 66 catches for 818 yards and 7 TDs. That prorates out to 105 catches for 1300 yards and 11 TDs - higher receptions, but otherwise almost exactly the numbers he put up this year. So instead of automatically upgrading his numbers because he didn't begin the season as a starter, his numbers suggest that, if we replayed the 2009 season with him as a 16 game starter, his numbers would probably have been about the same.

So now the question is, will his numbers improve or decrease this year?

With Austin, I feel like a lot of things had to happen right for him to get his numbers. Witten started out slow. The complimentary receivers all sucked. Romo locked in to him for stretches - partly because opponents were game planning for the running game or for Witten instead of Austin, and partly because the Cowboys didn't have a lot of other playmakers.

A lot of those things have changed this year.

First, the Cowboys have added Dez Bryant. Adding a complimentary receiver doesn't necessarily help or hurt a WR - Fitz put up great numbers with Boldin, and vice versa. But in this case, they already had a complimentary receiver. Witten. Adding Bryant seems more likely to hurt Austin's targets than help them. And while Austin may do better with those targets as a result, he already averaged over 16 YPR. I don't think there's enough room for improvement to assume he's going to continue to improve.

But it's not just Bryant. They've also got Felix back, and a healthier Barber. Felix and Barber give the offense another area to look for playmakers. And that hurts Austin, because last year, the only playmakers the Cowboys had for long stretches of time were Austin and Witten. So Austin may get lost in the shuffle.

There are reasons for concern here - Austin's totally unexpected numbers have to make you suspicious that this was just one of those perfect storm type seasons. To me, I downgrade him a little, and put him closer to 70 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs. Not bad numbers, but also not worthy of a top 20 pick.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

It's easy to be optimistic about everyone in the spring and summer. Just take last year's numbers, and assume that the players are going to improve. Especially young players, or players who seemed to emerge throughout the year. Not everybody improves, of course, so the trick is figuring out which players will actually get better, and which won't. So let's break down his season and see if there's reason for optimism. First of all, he wasn't a starter early on. His first four games, he had 5 catches for 81 yards, total, with no TDs, and got shut out entirely in week 3. That's good news for people who think Austin will put up even bigger numbers as a full-year starter. It seems like one of the big reasons people are expecting his numbers to improve next year is that he put up huge numbers while only starting 12 games. But the flip side of that coin is weeks 5 and 6, when Austin put up his biggest games of the season. 10 catches for 250 yards and 2 TDs against Kansas City. 6 more catches for 171 and 2 TDs. 16 catches for 421 yards and 4 TDs is about a third of his production last year, and he put it up in his first two games as a starter when his opponents had no reason to gameplan for him. It's hardly reasonable to hold his first four weeks against him, nor to assume he'll catch opponents by surprise like he did against KC and Atlanta. So let's look at his final ten weeks of the season. 66 catches for 818 yards and 7 TDs. That prorates out to 105 catches for 1300 yards and 11 TDs - higher receptions, but otherwise almost exactly the numbers he put up this year. So instead of automatically upgrading his numbers because he didn't begin the season as a starter, his numbers suggest that, if we replayed the 2009 season with him as a 16 game starter, his numbers would probably have been about the same. So now the question is, will his numbers improve or decrease this year? With Austin, I feel like a lot of things had to happen right for him to get his numbers. Witten started out slow. The complimentary receivers all sucked. Romo locked in to him for stretches - partly because opponents were game planning for the running game or for Witten instead of Austin, and partly because the Cowboys didn't have a lot of other playmakers. A lot of those things have changed this year. First, the Cowboys have added Dez Bryant. Adding a complimentary receiver doesn't necessarily help or hurt a WR - Fitz put up great numbers with Boldin, and vice versa. But in this case, they already had a complimentary receiver. Witten. Adding Bryant seems more likely to hurt Austin's targets than help them. And while Austin may do better with those targets as a result, he already averaged over 16 YPR. I don't think there's enough room for improvement to assume he's going to continue to improve. But it's not just Bryant. They've also got Felix back, and a healthier Barber. Felix and Barber give the offense another area to look for playmakers. And that hurts Austin, because last year, the only playmakers the Cowboys had for long stretches of time were Austin and Witten. So Austin may get lost in the shuffle. There are reasons for concern here - Austin's totally unexpected numbers have to make you suspicious that this was just one of those perfect storm type seasons. To me, I downgrade him a little, and put him closer to 70 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs. Not bad numbers, but also not worthy of a top 20 pick.

very ....this is why this site is the best....quality stuff like this....put me in the camp with ruffrody....have no real reason why, but I am down on him, probably mostly because I just do not think he will live up to where he is being drafted right now.....come the start of the season, he may not even be the best receiver on his team.....

 

[Cromedog]

It's easy to be optimistic about everyone in the spring and summer. Just take last year's numbers, and assume that the players are going to improve. Especially young players, or players who seemed to emerge throughout the year. Not everybody improves, of course, so the trick is figuring out which players will actually get better, and which won't. So let's break down his season and see if there's reason for optimism. First of all, he wasn't a starter early on. His first four games, he had 5 catches for 81 yards, total, with no TDs, and got shut out entirely in week 3. That's good news for people who think Austin will put up even bigger numbers as a full-year starter. It seems like one of the big reasons people are expecting his numbers to improve next year is that he put up huge numbers while only starting 12 games. But the flip side of that coin is weeks 5 and 6, when Austin put up his biggest games of the season. 10 catches for 250 yards and 2 TDs against Kansas City. 6 more catches for 171 and 2 TDs. 16 catches for 421 yards and 4 TDs is about a third of his production last year, and he put it up in his first two games as a starter when his opponents had no reason to gameplan for him. It's hardly reasonable to hold his first four weeks against him, nor to assume he'll catch opponents by surprise like he did against KC and Atlanta. So let's look at his final ten weeks of the season. 66 catches for 818 yards and 7 TDs. That prorates out to 105 catches for 1300 yards and 11 TDs - higher receptions, but otherwise almost exactly the numbers he put up this year. So instead of automatically upgrading his numbers because he didn't begin the season as a starter, his numbers suggest that, if we replayed the 2009 season with him as a 16 game starter, his numbers would probably have been about the same. So now the question is, will his numbers improve or decrease this year? With Austin, I feel like a lot of things had to happen right for him to get his numbers. Witten started out slow. The complimentary receivers all sucked. Romo locked in to him for stretches - partly because opponents were game planning for the running game or for Witten instead of Austin, and partly because the Cowboys didn't have a lot of other playmakers. A lot of those things have changed this year. First, the Cowboys have added Dez Bryant. Adding a complimentary receiver doesn't necessarily help or hurt a WR - Fitz put up great numbers with Boldin, and vice versa. But in this case, they already had a complimentary receiver. Witten. Adding Bryant seems more likely to hurt Austin's targets than help them. And while Austin may do better with those targets as a result, he already averaged over 16 YPR. I don't think there's enough room for improvement to assume he's going to continue to improve. But it's not just Bryant. They've also got Felix back, and a healthier Barber. Felix and Barber give the offense another area to look for playmakers. And that hurts Austin, because last year, the only playmakers the Cowboys had for long stretches of time were Austin and Witten. So Austin may get lost in the shuffle. There are reasons for concern here - Austin's totally unexpected numbers have to make you suspicious that this was just one of those perfect storm type seasons. To me, I downgrade him a little, and put him closer to 70 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs. Not bad numbers, but also not worthy of a top 20 pick.

very ....this is why this site is the best....quality stuff like this....put me in the camp with ruffrody....have no real reason why, but I am down on him, probably mostly because I just do not think he will live up to where he is being drafted right now.....come the start of the season, he may not even be the best receiver on his team.....

I believe the biggest reason he will not put up huge numbers is because teams will be MORE focused on him. Consequently, he will not live up to his ADP.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

It's easy to be optimistic about everyone in the spring and summer. Just take last year's numbers, and assume that the players are going to improve. Especially young players, or players who seemed to emerge throughout the year. Not everybody improves, of course, so the trick is figuring out which players will actually get better, and which won't.

So let's break down his season and see if there's reason for optimism.

First of all, he wasn't a starter early on. His first four games, he had 5 catches for 81 yards, total, with no TDs, and got shut out entirely in week 3. That's good news for people who think Austin will put up even bigger numbers as a full-year starter. It seems like one of the big reasons people are expecting his numbers to improve next year is that he put up huge numbers while only starting 12 games.

But the flip side of that coin is weeks 5 and 6, when Austin put up his biggest games of the season. 10 catches for 250 yards and 2 TDs against Kansas City. 6 more catches for 171 and 2 TDs. 16 catches for 421 yards and 4 TDs is about a third of his production last year, and he put it up in his first two games as a starter when his opponents had no reason to gameplan for him.

It's hardly reasonable to hold his first four weeks against him, nor to assume he'll catch opponents by surprise like he did against KC and Atlanta. So let's look at his final ten weeks of the season. 66 catches for 818 yards and 7 TDs. That prorates out to 105 catches for 1300 yards and 11 TDs - higher receptions, but otherwise almost exactly the numbers he put up this year. So instead of automatically upgrading his numbers because he didn't begin the season as a starter, his numbers suggest that, if we replayed the 2009 season with him as a 16 game starter, his numbers would probably have been about the same.

So now the question is, will his numbers improve or decrease this year?

With Austin, I feel like a lot of things had to happen right for him to get his numbers. Witten started out slow. The complimentary receivers all sucked. Romo locked in to him for stretches - partly because opponents were game planning for the running game or for Witten instead of Austin, and partly because the Cowboys didn't have a lot of other playmakers.

A lot of those things have changed this year.

First, the Cowboys have added Dez Bryant. Adding a complimentary receiver doesn't necessarily help or hurt a WR - Fitz put up great numbers with Boldin, and vice versa. But in this case, they already had a complimentary receiver. Witten. Adding Bryant seems more likely to hurt Austin's targets than help them. And while Austin may do better with those targets as a result, he already averaged over 16 YPR. I don't think there's enough room for improvement to assume he's going to continue to improve.

But it's not just Bryant. They've also got Felix back, and a healthier Barber. Felix and Barber give the offense another area to look for playmakers. And that hurts Austin, because last year, the only playmakers the Cowboys had for long stretches of time were Austin and Witten. So Austin may get lost in the shuffle.

There are reasons for concern here - Austin's totally unexpected numbers have to make you suspicious that this was just one of those perfect storm type seasons. To me, I downgrade him a little, and put him closer to 70 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs. Not bad numbers, but also not worthy of a top 20 pick.

To me these things merely come out as washes. Why? Because we never really go back and study past situations to determine why they help in some situations and hurt in others.So having another good WR opposite you can help or hurt. So which is it for Austin? It could mean fewer targets for Austin but it could also mean less attention to him? Why would a DC prefer to get torched by Witten or Bryant instead of Austin? If a rookie Bryant is so talented that he commands more targets than did Roy Williams last year (which is a whole other debate), wouldn't it also occur to opposing DC's that they better keep an eye on this kid? Given his status as the top WR prospect in the draft, their team probably worked him over with a fine toothed comb leading up the draft. And since it took all of two games for DC's to start paying attention to Austin last year, why would anyone think an effective Bryant will roll for 16 games taking targets away from Austin yet not also attract an increasing amount of DC attention? It doesn't make sense. If Bryant does something with his targets, he will get more and more attention, same as Austin did. In fact, given his pedigree, he will probably still be on everyone's radar if he's a game 1 starter. The more hype Bryant gets preseason, I think the more attention he gets on the field. No one is going to see an explosive game from him as a fluke.

So unless someone really goes back and breaks down situations to determine why in the past the addition of another playmaker at WR helps in some situations but hurts in others, I don't get that concerned, particularly when that new WR is a rookie. Unless you think Bryant is so good that he overtakes and surpasses Austin as the #1 this year, as a rookie, I don't downgrade Austin for 2010 because of Bryant's addition.

The same thing goes for F.Jones and the running game. Does a stronger running game mean less passes or does it mean one less safety roaming the secondary? Does it mean more DB's with eyes in the backfield and LB's hesitating to drop back into their zones to see if Felix is getting a short dump-off? It might mean some of all of these at the same time. Which means you really have to net those factors. And, just like with adding a complimentary playmaker at WR, I'm not aware of any study or theory which allows for any predictability when deciding whether or not a particular player's situation will progress, regress or remain stable when you improve the RB talent.

I tend to default to the idea that a rising tide lifts all ships. If F.Jones or D.Bryant can move the chains on a play that last year would have resulted in a 4th down because of the attention Austin was getting from DC's, that simply gives Austin another 3 plays this season in which to get another target.

You have to consider that while Dez Bryant seems to be everything you could want in a WR, he isn't the first guy to come into the league looking like that. Is Dez any better a prospect now than Roy Williams was when he was a rookie? Compare that to the fact that no one has ever done what Austin did last year in terms of emerging. Sure, some things had to line up right for Austin to put up those numbers, but one of those things had to be Austin's talent. You can't seperate out that you need the right guy in the right place at the right time. It isn't just any guy in the right place at the right time. If it didn't take real talent to put up those numbers in that situation, I'd argue that more players would be capable of doing so...and that Austin wouldn't be the sole occupier of that position in history.

 

[John 14:6]

I think it helps a lot to watch players. I remember watching Ahman Green when he first started playing in Green Bay. He looked very good carrying and catching the ball. He didn't do much statistically when I picked him up, by I held onto him because by watching him I thought he looked like a great player.

That's the same way I feel about Austin. I traded for him last year and he helped me win a title. When I watched him play I thought he looked great. I think he's going to continue being a top WR.

 

[bostonfred]

It's easy to be optimistic about everyone in the spring and summer. Just take last year's numbers, and assume that the players are going to improve. Especially young players, or players who seemed to emerge throughout the year. Not everybody improves, of course, so the trick is figuring out which players will actually get better, and which won't.

So let's break down his season and see if there's reason for optimism.

First of all, he wasn't a starter early on. His first four games, he had 5 catches for 81 yards, total, with no TDs, and got shut out entirely in week 3. That's good news for people who think Austin will put up even bigger numbers as a full-year starter. It seems like one of the big reasons people are expecting his numbers to improve next year is that he put up huge numbers while only starting 12 games.

But the flip side of that coin is weeks 5 and 6, when Austin put up his biggest games of the season. 10 catches for 250 yards and 2 TDs against Kansas City. 6 more catches for 171 and 2 TDs. 16 catches for 421 yards and 4 TDs is about a third of his production last year, and he put it up in his first two games as a starter when his opponents had no reason to gameplan for him.

It's hardly reasonable to hold his first four weeks against him, nor to assume he'll catch opponents by surprise like he did against KC and Atlanta. So let's look at his final ten weeks of the season. 66 catches for 818 yards and 7 TDs. That prorates out to 105 catches for 1300 yards and 11 TDs - higher receptions, but otherwise almost exactly the numbers he put up this year. So instead of automatically upgrading his numbers because he didn't begin the season as a starter, his numbers suggest that, if we replayed the 2009 season with him as a 16 game starter, his numbers would probably have been about the same.

So now the question is, will his numbers improve or decrease this year?

With Austin, I feel like a lot of things had to happen right for him to get his numbers. Witten started out slow. The complimentary receivers all sucked. Romo locked in to him for stretches - partly because opponents were game planning for the running game or for Witten instead of Austin, and partly because the Cowboys didn't have a lot of other playmakers.

A lot of those things have changed this year.

First, the Cowboys have added Dez Bryant. Adding a complimentary receiver doesn't necessarily help or hurt a WR - Fitz put up great numbers with Boldin, and vice versa. But in this case, they already had a complimentary receiver. Witten. Adding Bryant seems more likely to hurt Austin's targets than help them. And while Austin may do better with those targets as a result, he already averaged over 16 YPR. I don't think there's enough room for improvement to assume he's going to continue to improve.

But it's not just Bryant. They've also got Felix back, and a healthier Barber. Felix and Barber give the offense another area to look for playmakers. And that hurts Austin, because last year, the only playmakers the Cowboys had for long stretches of time were Austin and Witten. So Austin may get lost in the shuffle.

There are reasons for concern here - Austin's totally unexpected numbers have to make you suspicious that this was just one of those perfect storm type seasons. To me, I downgrade him a little, and put him closer to 70 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs. Not bad numbers, but also not worthy of a top 20 pick.

To me these things merely come out as washes. Why? Because we never really go back and study past situations to determine why they help in some situations and hurt in others.So having another good WR opposite you can help or hurt. So which is it for Austin? It could mean fewer targets for Austin but it could also mean less attention to him? Why would a DC prefer to get torched by Witten or Bryant instead of Austin? If a rookie Bryant is so talented that he commands more targets than did Roy Williams last year (which is a whole other debate), wouldn't it also occur to opposing DC's that they better keep an eye on this kid? Given his status as the top WR prospect in the draft, their team probably worked him over with a fine toothed comb leading up the draft. And since it took all of two games for DC's to start paying attention to Austin last year, why would anyone think an effective Bryant will roll for 16 games taking targets away from Austin yet not also attract an increasing amount of DC attention? It doesn't make sense. If Bryant does something with his targets, he will get more and more attention, same as Austin did. In fact, given his pedigree, he will probably still be on everyone's radar if he's a game 1 starter. The more hype Bryant gets preseason, I think the more attention he gets on the field. No one is going to see an explosive game from him as a fluke.

So unless someone really goes back and breaks down situations to determine why in the past the addition of another playmaker at WR helps in some situations but hurts in others, I don't get that concerned, particularly when that new WR is a rookie. Unless you think Bryant is so good that he overtakes and surpasses Austin as the #1 this year, as a rookie, I don't downgrade Austin for 2010 because of Bryant's addition.

The same thing goes for F.Jones and the running game. Does a stronger running game mean less passes or does it mean one less safety roaming the secondary? Does it mean more DB's with eyes in the backfield and LB's hesitating to drop back into their zones to see if Felix is getting a short dump-off? It might mean some of all of these at the same time. Which means you really have to net those factors. And, just like with adding a complimentary playmaker at WR, I'm not aware of any study or theory which allows for any predictability when deciding whether or not a particular player's situation will progress, regress or remain stable when you improve the RB talent.

I tend to default to the idea that a rising tide lifts all ships. If F.Jones or D.Bryant can move the chains on a play that last year would have resulted in a 4th down because of the attention Austin was getting from DC's, that simply gives Austin another 3 plays this season in which to get another target.

You have to consider that while Dez Bryant seems to be everything you could want in a WR, he isn't the first guy to come into the league looking like that. Is Dez any better a prospect now than Roy Williams was when he was a rookie? Compare that to the fact that no one has ever done what Austin did last year in terms of emerging. Sure, some things had to line up right for Austin to put up those numbers, but one of those things had to be Austin's talent. You can't seperate out that you need the right guy in the right place at the right time. It isn't just any guy in the right place at the right time. If it didn't take real talent to put up those numbers in that situation, I'd argue that more players would be capable of doing so...and that Austin wouldn't be the sole occupier of that position in history.

I think a second receiver can either help or hurt, but a third receiver hurts in almost every case. Witten, Austin, Bryant, the running game, and now Felix is working out with the receivers, plus Barber will catch some balls... it's not that there's too many options for multiple receivers to put up big numbers, it's that I don't think Austin is so much more talented a receiver or playmaker than the other guys on the team that he's going to be the runaway #1 on this offense. And while I agree with your rising tide lifting all ships analogy in some situations - and I do think the offense will be very productive - I think Austin benefitted greatly from being the big fish in a small pond last year, while he will be just one of several fish in a bigger pond this year. It's going to be a lot harder for him to put up the same numbers.

Let me ask you this - when Austin exploded last year, do you think it was because he was so much more talented than everyone else in the NFL, or just more talented than Roy Williams and an injured Barber? I think he overachieved - at least a little - compared to his talent last year. I really don't see that happening again this year, because I don't think the Cowboys need it to. That doesn't mean I don't think he can put up decent numbers, but I don't want to spend a top 20 pick on a guy who needs to do better than a hugely unexpected year last year despite having new obstacles to overcome. While he certainly could put up the numbers to justify it, it's a big risk to take at his recent ADP.

 

[gianmarco]

It's easy to be optimistic about everyone in the spring and summer. Just take last year's numbers, and assume that the players are going to improve. Especially young players, or players who seemed to emerge throughout the year. Not everybody improves, of course, so the trick is figuring out which players will actually get better, and which won't.

So let's break down his season and see if there's reason for optimism.

First of all, he wasn't a starter early on. His first four games, he had 5 catches for 81 yards, total, with no TDs, and got shut out entirely in week 3. That's good news for people who think Austin will put up even bigger numbers as a full-year starter. It seems like one of the big reasons people are expecting his numbers to improve next year is that he put up huge numbers while only starting 12 games.

But the flip side of that coin is weeks 5 and 6, when Austin put up his biggest games of the season. 10 catches for 250 yards and 2 TDs against Kansas City. 6 more catches for 171 and 2 TDs. 16 catches for 421 yards and 4 TDs is about a third of his production last year, and he put it up in his first two games as a starter when his opponents had no reason to gameplan for him.

It's hardly reasonable to hold his first four weeks against him, nor to assume he'll catch opponents by surprise like he did against KC and Atlanta. So let's look at his final ten weeks of the season. 66 catches for 818 yards and 7 TDs. That prorates out to 105 catches for 1300 yards and 11 TDs - higher receptions, but otherwise almost exactly the numbers he put up this year. So instead of automatically upgrading his numbers because he didn't begin the season as a starter, his numbers suggest that, if we replayed the 2009 season with him as a 16 game starter, his numbers would probably have been about the same.

So now the question is, will his numbers improve or decrease this year?

With Austin, I feel like a lot of things had to happen right for him to get his numbers. Witten started out slow. The complimentary receivers all sucked. Romo locked in to him for stretches - partly because opponents were game planning for the running game or for Witten instead of Austin, and partly because the Cowboys didn't have a lot of other playmakers.

A lot of those things have changed this year.

First, the Cowboys have added Dez Bryant. Adding a complimentary receiver doesn't necessarily help or hurt a WR - Fitz put up great numbers with Boldin, and vice versa. But in this case, they already had a complimentary receiver. Witten. Adding Bryant seems more likely to hurt Austin's targets than help them. And while Austin may do better with those targets as a result, he already averaged over 16 YPR. I don't think there's enough room for improvement to assume he's going to continue to improve.

But it's not just Bryant. They've also got Felix back, and a healthier Barber. Felix and Barber give the offense another area to look for playmakers. And that hurts Austin, because last year, the only playmakers the Cowboys had for long stretches of time were Austin and Witten. So Austin may get lost in the shuffle.

There are reasons for concern here - Austin's totally unexpected numbers have to make you suspicious that this was just one of those perfect storm type seasons. To me, I downgrade him a little, and put him closer to 70 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs. Not bad numbers, but also not worthy of a top 20 pick.

To me these things merely come out as washes. Why? Because we never really go back and study past situations to determine why they help in some situations and hurt in others.So having another good WR opposite you can help or hurt. So which is it for Austin? It could mean fewer targets for Austin but it could also mean less attention to him? Why would a DC prefer to get torched by Witten or Bryant instead of Austin? If a rookie Bryant is so talented that he commands more targets than did Roy Williams last year (which is a whole other debate), wouldn't it also occur to opposing DC's that they better keep an eye on this kid? Given his status as the top WR prospect in the draft, their team probably worked him over with a fine toothed comb leading up the draft. And since it took all of two games for DC's to start paying attention to Austin last year, why would anyone think an effective Bryant will roll for 16 games taking targets away from Austin yet not also attract an increasing amount of DC attention? It doesn't make sense. If Bryant does something with his targets, he will get more and more attention, same as Austin did. In fact, given his pedigree, he will probably still be on everyone's radar if he's a game 1 starter. The more hype Bryant gets preseason, I think the more attention he gets on the field. No one is going to see an explosive game from him as a fluke.

So unless someone really goes back and breaks down situations to determine why in the past the addition of another playmaker at WR helps in some situations but hurts in others, I don't get that concerned, particularly when that new WR is a rookie. Unless you think Bryant is so good that he overtakes and surpasses Austin as the #1 this year, as a rookie, I don't downgrade Austin for 2010 because of Bryant's addition.

The same thing goes for F.Jones and the running game. Does a stronger running game mean less passes or does it mean one less safety roaming the secondary? Does it mean more DB's with eyes in the backfield and LB's hesitating to drop back into their zones to see if Felix is getting a short dump-off? It might mean some of all of these at the same time. Which means you really have to net those factors. And, just like with adding a complimentary playmaker at WR, I'm not aware of any study or theory which allows for any predictability when deciding whether or not a particular player's situation will progress, regress or remain stable when you improve the RB talent.

I tend to default to the idea that a rising tide lifts all ships. If F.Jones or D.Bryant can move the chains on a play that last year would have resulted in a 4th down because of the attention Austin was getting from DC's, that simply gives Austin another 3 plays this season in which to get another target.

You have to consider that while Dez Bryant seems to be everything you could want in a WR, he isn't the first guy to come into the league looking like that. Is Dez any better a prospect now than Roy Williams was when he was a rookie? Compare that to the fact that no one has ever done what Austin did last year in terms of emerging. Sure, some things had to line up right for Austin to put up those numbers, but one of those things had to be Austin's talent. You can't seperate out that you need the right guy in the right place at the right time. It isn't just any guy in the right place at the right time. If it didn't take real talent to put up those numbers in that situation, I'd argue that more players would be capable of doing so...and that Austin wouldn't be the sole occupier of that position in history.

I think a second receiver can either help or hurt, but a third receiver hurts in almost every case. Witten, Austin, Bryant, the running game, and now Felix is working out with the receivers, plus Barber will catch some balls... it's not that there's too many options for multiple receivers to put up big numbers, it's that I don't think Austin is so much more talented a receiver or playmaker than the other guys on the team that he's going to be the runaway #1 on this offense. And while I agree with your rising tide lifting all ships analogy in some situations - and I do think the offense will be very productive - I think Austin benefitted greatly from being the big fish in a small pond last year, while he will be just one of several fish in a bigger pond this year. It's going to be a lot harder for him to put up the same numbers.

Let me ask you this - when Austin exploded last year, do you think it was because he was so much more talented than everyone else in the NFL, or just more talented than Roy Williams and an injured Barber? I think he overachieved - at least a little - compared to his talent last year. I really don't see that happening again this year, because I don't think the Cowboys need it to. That doesn't mean I don't think he can put up decent numbers, but I don't want to spend a top 20 pick on a guy who needs to do better than a hugely unexpected year last year despite having new obstacles to overcome. While he certainly could put up the numbers to justify it, it's a big risk to take at his recent ADP.

That's the thing, though. He DOESN'T have to do better than last year. In fact, he has a good bit of room to regress and still justify his ranking. I'm not sure some people realize just how good he was last year in terms of his numbers. The guy broke out in week 5. We all know the historic game. From weeks 5-17, in ppr leagues, guess where Austin ranked among WR's. #1. The top. Higher than Welker. Higher than Andre Johnson. Higher than Moss, Marshall, and S. Rice. But hey, those first 2 weeks when he exploded for 10/250/2 and 6/171/2 are surely skewing his stats and defenses weren't ready. Let's drop those 2 weeks.

From weeks 7-17, ignoring his 2 monster breakout weeks, he was STILL the #3 overall WR behind Marshall and AJ, averaging 19.5 ppg for those 11 weeks. Even without his two monster weeks, the guy prorates out to 312 pts on the season. And we're not just talking a limited sample (relatively speaking) as this is based on 11 games of work (again, ignoring both the playoffs and his 2 monster weeks). Last year, only 1 WR broke 300 pts. It was AJ with 314 pts. The year before that, only 2 WR's broke 300 pts: AJ with 322 and Fitz with 311.

In other words, Austin doesn't have to do any better to justify his draft spot as his numbers are elite. Not just good, or very good, or pretty damn good, but ELITE. THAT is the reason why some are as high on him as they are. It's nice to get excited about a guy like DeSean Jackson and his 250 pts, but there's not much terribly special about it. It's a nice season, sure, but it's not even close to what the top 3 guys do on a given season and if he regresses, he's a WR2. Austin, on the other hand, has about 60 fantasy pts to spare compared to what he did this past year and then he'd only be as good as....DeSean Jackson (who finished WR11).

Which gets to the final point. Not only does Austin offer remarkable upside but his floor is incredibly high, IMO. The problem with the drafting of Bryant is that it will likely limit his targets which will cap his upside. While a #1 finish was possible before, it's going to be very difficult and pretty unlikely now. But, at the same time, it also raises his floor because teams won't be able to dedicate so much coverage on him with both Witten and Bryant in the passing game. Bryant will be taking his targets from Roy's 86 targets and Crayton's 67 and Hurd's 12, not from Austin's 124. The issue is that, while Austin was able to put up those astounding #'s on just 124 targets, to be a top 3 WR in fantasy scoring, that # needs to be in the 140-150 range and it's very possible it will just have to stay where it is.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

I've got Austin barely cracking the WR Top 10 and I feel like I'm being generous putting him there. Dez Bryant has the tools, talent, and opportunity to be a Top 20 WR this year. In doing so, it will likely knock Austin down the ladder. Put me in the camp that believes he'll take a step back in numbers.

 

[gianmarco]

I've got Austin barely cracking the WR Top 10 and I feel like I'm being generous putting him there. Dez Bryant has the tools, talent, and opportunity to be a Top 20 WR this year. In doing so, it will likely knock Austin down the ladder. Put me in the camp that believes he'll take a step back in numbers.

Is this because you think he will steal targets away from Austin? Do you think Austin won't at least get 120 targets given his performance last year?As to Austin specifically, what holes do you find in his game that should keep him from replicating? As good as Bryant may be, Austin has already shown he can perform at an ELITE level in the NFL, at least for one season. That's more than can be said for the vast majority of WRs. Even if Bryant is very good, how is it a given that he'll be better than Austin and thus deserve the ball more than him?

 

[gianmarco]

So, I went back and looked at the last decade of WRs who have finished in the top 10. The overriding theme? It's the same guys over and over and over. In the top 10, there are very few flukes. In the last 10 years, here are the guys I identified as "flukes". Essentially every other player has finished in the top 10 more than once (or incredibly close).

Lee Evans

Braylon Edwards

Roy Williams

Amani Toomer

Peerless Price

Drew Bennett

Keenan McCardell

Mushin Muhammad

On that list, all but 2 guys were drafted in either the 1st or 2nd round. The pedigree was there and for the most part didn't repeat their performances partly due to situation (i.e. Edwards, Roy, Evans). Toomer and Muhammad actually had a couple other top 15 finishes, so I was generous including them.

That leaves us the following as compares for Austin: Drew Bennett and Keenan McCardell. Well, McCardell went on to have a total of 5 finishes in the top 20 throughout his career. While never a superstar, he remained a pretty valuable asset for most of his career.

So, that leaves us with undrafted Drew Bennett and his out of nowhere performance in 2004 as the only real compare to Austin. By that, I mean, guys don't "fluke" their way into the top 10 (let alone the top 3) unless they either:

1) Repeat again

2) Had high draft pedigree and disappointed for other reasons (Evans, Braylon, Roy, Price)

3) Are named Drew Bennett

So let's look at Drew Bennett. Drew had a magical 2004 where he finished with 80/1247/11. Similarly, Drew was undrafted (like Austin), had a couple monster games, did this in his 4th year, but unfortunately was really never heard from again. However, here's the problem with Drew. Aside from his 2 monster games (12/233/3 and 13/160/2), he had a pretty unremarkable year having only 55/854/6 over the remaining 14 games. Unlike Austin, using the other 14 games gives us a prorated year of 62/976/7. That's a far cry from Austin's prorated #'s over his other 11 games.

What does all this mean? As uncommon as it is for an undrafted WR to come out of nowhere and put up fantastic numbers, it's even more uncommon for a WR to do so and fade into obscurity without repeating that performance at least once more. In fact, it's pretty much unheard of. The only real WR without draft pedigree to explode into a top finish and never repeat is Drew Bennett and, as I explained above, Drew's finish was the result of 2 games whereas Austin continued his production for the remainder of the year. And this is ignoring how good Austin LOOKED on the field, the fact that he plays in a potent offense with a top 5 QB, with pretty elite measureables (6'3, 215 lbs, 4.4 speed).

Austin is here to stay, with or without Dez Bryant.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

I've got Austin barely cracking the WR Top 10 and I feel like I'm being generous putting him there. Dez Bryant has the tools, talent, and opportunity to be a Top 20 WR this year. In doing so, it will likely knock Austin down the ladder. Put me in the camp that believes he'll take a step back in numbers.

Is this because you think he will steal targets away from Austin? Do you think Austin won't at least get 120 targets given his performance last year?As to Austin specifically, what holes do you find in his game that should keep him from replicating? As good as Bryant may be, Austin has already shown he can perform at an ELITE level in the NFL, at least for one season. That's more than can be said for the vast majority of WRs. Even if Bryant is very good, how is it a given that he'll be better than Austin and thus deserve the ball more than him?

I do think Bryant will take away targets. So will Witten. The three will command a large number of targets, simply because they will be on the field for a ton of snaps. I just don't see Austin duplicating his numbers from 2009. It has nothing to do with his ability. The offense just has more options compared to last year, thanks to Dez Bryant. Bryant is going to be a success from the get go, which will hinder Austin's numbers. At least that's how I see it. Again, I'm not saying Austin will be a bust. I just think he'll be a Top 15 WR instead of a Top 5 WR.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I think if he duplicates his numbers from last year it will be a very successfull season. I think if the rb's can remain healthy that will reduce his targets by a couple handfulls, along with a likely bump to Witten (I think Witten will be open a bit more this year with the added weapons), and approx 110 targets going to Dez. I just can't see him getting enough action to be a top 2 guy.

 

[gianmarco]

I've got Austin barely cracking the WR Top 10 and I feel like I'm being generous putting him there. Dez Bryant has the tools, talent, and opportunity to be a Top 20 WR this year. In doing so, it will likely knock Austin down the ladder. Put me in the camp that believes he'll take a step back in numbers.

Is this because you think he will steal targets away from Austin? Do you think Austin won't at least get 120 targets given his performance last year?As to Austin specifically, what holes do you find in his game that should keep him from replicating? As good as Bryant may be, Austin has already shown he can perform at an ELITE level in the NFL, at least for one season. That's more than can be said for the vast majority of WRs. Even if Bryant is very good, how is it a given that he'll be better than Austin and thus deserve the ball more than him?

I do think Bryant will take away targets. So will Witten. The three will command a large number of targets, simply because they will be on the field for a ton of snaps. I just don't see Austin duplicating his numbers from 2009. It has nothing to do with his ability. The offense just has more options compared to last year, thanks to Dez Bryant. Bryant is going to be a success from the get go, which will hinder Austin's numbers. At least that's how I see it. Again, I'm not saying Austin will be a bust. I just think he'll be a Top 15 WR instead of a Top 5 WR.

Austin had 124 targets last year. Do you think he's going to have less because of Bryant? If so, I'm just curious how many targets you see him getting.He scored 198 pts last year on 124 targets, or 1.6 pts/target. Based on that level of production and last year's scoring, he'd have to have fewer than 100 targets to even fall out of the top 10. In other words, something has to give. I'm not saying what you're posting is incorrect or ridiculous, I'm just trying to get to WHY and HOW you see his numbers falling.Either his targets will go significantly down or his level of production will go down or a combination of the two. Both are definitely possible, but there are some people that think he overachieved last year and others that think it's mostly a matter of targets. You seem to be in the latter group (which is what I'm trying to clarify). If so, I think how his targets change next year is being overstated. Bryant may be fantastic, but I can't fathom a WR being as successful as Austin was last year to get < 100 targets. I just can't see it. So, unless his production drops (which we seem to be on the same page on and don't think that will happen), then he shouldn't be projected to drop out of the top 10 no matter how good Bryant is. Another big question I have is, if Bryant is so amazing and does indeed steal targets, aside from the other role players, would they be more likely to come from Austin or Witten? Who has been more productive with their targets?

 

[gianmarco]

I'll also add that the idea that an offense can't support so many passing options isn't true. It's not common, but most teams don't have the trio of passing options like Dallas will have. However, look no further than Indy last year.

Wayne -- 149 targets

D. Clark -- 132 targets

Garcon -- 92 targets

Collie -- 90 targets

RBs -- 90 targets

That's FOUR options with a substantial number of targets. If either Collie or Garcon weren't in the picture, then you'd easily have seen 3 players with 120+ targets.

Similarly, look at Arizona in 2008

Fitzgerald -- 154 targets

Boldin -- 126 targets

Breaston -- 113 targets

Urban -- 51 targets to boot

Oh, and add another 90 targets for Hightower/Arrington that year (and almost 30 more for Edge/Castille/Smith).

Now, I know that Arizona also had a ton of passing attempts that year and a significantly worse running game than Dallas and that definitely factors in as well, but it's feasible for Austin to maintain ~120 targets while Witten and Bryant still get a significant share without throwing 600 times/year. Just removing Urban's 51 targets + 30 for misc. RBs is 80+ targets that would easily drop them to the 550 passing attempts that Dallas has averaged over the last couple of years.

 

[bostonfred]

I've got Austin barely cracking the WR Top 10 and I feel like I'm being generous putting him there. Dez Bryant has the tools, talent, and opportunity to be a Top 20 WR this year. In doing so, it will likely knock Austin down the ladder. Put me in the camp that believes he'll take a step back in numbers.

Is this because you think he will steal targets away from Austin? Do you think Austin won't at least get 120 targets given his performance last year?As to Austin specifically, what holes do you find in his game that should keep him from replicating? As good as Bryant may be, Austin has already shown he can perform at an ELITE level in the NFL, at least for one season. That's more than can be said for the vast majority of WRs. Even if Bryant is very good, how is it a given that he'll be better than Austin and thus deserve the ball more than him?

I think Austin's performance last year was because he got the targets, and because he was fighting for a job, and because Dallas had nobody else to turn to, and because Atlanta and KC didn't expect him those first couple weeks, and because teams were letting Austin beat them so they could contain Witten and keep the ground game in check, and because Dallas drew up their plays around a playmaker, and Austin was the only playmaker they had, and because their next best playmakers were a tight end, an injured running back who missed most of the year, a running back with a pulled quad, and Roy Williams. All of those things have changed this year, and none of that is good for Austin. Do I think that Dallas will deliberately choose not to go to Austin? Of course not. Do I think they will try to have a more balanced offense? Absolutely. Let's say Romo throws 525 passes this year, and completes 340 of them. That would be pretty close to a career year for Romo, and we'd have to assume that the Cowboys' rushing attempts didn't go up dramatically, but that's fine. Of those, Witten gets his 80-90 receptions again. That leaves us with 250-60. We'll assume the other TEs combine for just 20 receptions, which is a little low historically. That puts us around 230-240. Then we'll give the running backs the 60-75 receptions that they have routinely gotten - and it's worth noting that the Cowboys have had Felix working with the wide receivers and Barber is already a very good receive in his own right. That leaves us with 155-175 receptions for the entire receiving corps. Dez, Roy Williams, Ogletree and Hurd should catch 80-100 more passes between them - FBG has them predicted for 111. That leaves Austin with 44-64 receptions. Well, wait... that can't be right. He isn't going to have 44 receptions. So where are the other numbers wrong? Do you think that the Cowboys will have more than 1000 offensive plays next year? Will they go past their traditional pass/rush ratio which is about 54/46, even though their backs are healthy again? Will Witten underperform? Will the other receivers just drop off the face of the earth? Of course, any or all of those things could happen, and maybe one or two of them will. But even if we drop Witten to 80 receptions, the backs to their low end of 65, the total pass attempts to the high end of the Phillips/Romo era, and assume that Bryant, Crayton, Williams and co. combine for fewer than 80 passes between them, that barely gives us enough room for Austin to put up the kind of numbers he did last year. And while that is certainly possible, a lot of things worked out to give Austin a better opportunity last year than it appears he will have this year. I think it's great that you looked at other top 10 WR performances, but I don't understand how it's remotely scientific to just throw out the ones you didn't like. You're assuming that he will have the mental toughness to work as hard this year as he did last year when he was fighting for a job. Well, Roy Williams is a good example of a receiver who failed to do just that, and he's in the same locker room. Maybe his breakout year will be like Michael Clayton's, or Terry Glenn's - guys who blew up as rookies and then cooled way off. Maybe he'll be more like Joey Galloway, or Lance Moore, or any of a long history of guys who have blown up and then disappeared. I don't understand how you can just disregard every example of receivers who had good years and then dropped off the face of the earth, or use some arbitrary cutoff of top ten in-year fantasy ranking or whatever. It's not particularly meaningful data. You're right, though - the top ten has included a lot of the same names from year to year. But those guys were insanely good. Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Terrell Owens were perennial top 5 receivers. I don't put Austin in the same category as those guys at the peak of their careers. Not even close. And as you pointed out, we're talking about an undrafted receiver who hadn't shown anything like this in previous years. I don't mean to sound so negative. I completely agree with you on the most important thing - that he's more than capable of repeating last year's numbers, or at least regressing slightly from them. The place where we differ is that I think that that would require some good fortune for Austin, while you seem to take it for granted.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

I've got Austin barely cracking the WR Top 10 and I feel like I'm being generous putting him there. Dez Bryant has the tools, talent, and opportunity to be a Top 20 WR this year. In doing so, it will likely knock Austin down the ladder. Put me in the camp that believes he'll take a step back in numbers.

Is this because you think he will steal targets away from Austin? Do you think Austin won't at least get 120 targets given his performance last year?As to Austin specifically, what holes do you find in his game that should keep him from replicating? As good as Bryant may be, Austin has already shown he can perform at an ELITE level in the NFL, at least for one season. That's more than can be said for the vast majority of WRs. Even if Bryant is very good, how is it a given that he'll be better than Austin and thus deserve the ball more than him?

I think Austin's performance last year was because he got the targets, and because he was fighting for a job, and because Dallas had nobody else to turn to, and because Atlanta and KC didn't expect him those first couple weeks, and because teams were letting Austin beat them so they could contain Witten and keep the ground game in check, and because Dallas drew up their plays around a playmaker, and Austin was the only playmaker they had, and because their next best playmakers were a tight end, an injured running back who missed most of the year, a running back with a pulled quad, and Roy Williams. All of those things have changed this year, and none of that is good for Austin. Do I think that Dallas will deliberately choose not to go to Austin? Of course not. Do I think they will try to have a more balanced offense? Absolutely. Let's say Romo throws 525 passes this year, and completes 340 of them. That would be pretty close to a career year for Romo, and we'd have to assume that the Cowboys' rushing attempts didn't go up dramatically, but that's fine. Of those, Witten gets his 80-90 receptions again. That leaves us with 250-60. We'll assume the other TEs combine for just 20 receptions, which is a little low historically. That puts us around 230-240. Then we'll give the running backs the 60-75 receptions that they have routinely gotten - and it's worth noting that the Cowboys have had Felix working with the wide receivers and Barber is already a very good receive in his own right. That leaves us with 155-175 receptions for the entire receiving corps. Dez, Roy Williams, Ogletree and Hurd should catch 80-100 more passes between them - FBG has them predicted for 111. That leaves Austin with 44-64 receptions. Well, wait... that can't be right. He isn't going to have 44 receptions. So where are the other numbers wrong? Do you think that the Cowboys will have more than 1000 offensive plays next year? Will they go past their traditional pass/rush ratio which is about 54/46, even though their backs are healthy again? Will Witten underperform? Will the other receivers just drop off the face of the earth? Of course, any or all of those things could happen, and maybe one or two of them will. But even if we drop Witten to 80 receptions, the backs to their low end of 65, the total pass attempts to the high end of the Phillips/Romo era, and assume that Bryant, Crayton, Williams and co. combine for fewer than 80 passes between them, that barely gives us enough room for Austin to put up the kind of numbers he did last year. And while that is certainly possible, a lot of things worked out to give Austin a better opportunity last year than it appears he will have this year. I think it's great that you looked at other top 10 WR performances, but I don't understand how it's remotely scientific to just throw out the ones you didn't like. You're assuming that he will have the mental toughness to work as hard this year as he did last year when he was fighting for a job. Well, Roy Williams is a good example of a receiver who failed to do just that, and he's in the same locker room. Maybe his breakout year will be like Michael Clayton's, or Terry Glenn's - guys who blew up as rookies and then cooled way off. Maybe he'll be more like Joey Galloway, or Lance Moore, or any of a long history of guys who have blown up and then disappeared. I don't understand how you can just disregard every example of receivers who had good years and then dropped off the face of the earth, or use some arbitrary cutoff of top ten in-year fantasy ranking or whatever. It's not particularly meaningful data. You're right, though - the top ten has included a lot of the same names from year to year. But those guys were insanely good. Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Terrell Owens were perennial top 5 receivers. I don't put Austin in the same category as those guys at the peak of their careers. Not even close. And as you pointed out, we're talking about an undrafted receiver who hadn't shown anything like this in previous years. I don't mean to sound so negative. I completely agree with you on the most important thing - that he's more than capable of repeating last year's numbers, or at least regressing slightly from them. The place where we differ is that I think that that would require some good fortune for Austin, while you seem to take it for granted.

Very This pretty much sums up my feelings on this topic.

 

[gianmarco]

I've got Austin barely cracking the WR Top 10 and I feel like I'm being generous putting him there. Dez Bryant has the tools, talent, and opportunity to be a Top 20 WR this year. In doing so, it will likely knock Austin down the ladder. Put me in the camp that believes he'll take a step back in numbers.

Is this because you think he will steal targets away from Austin? Do you think Austin won't at least get 120 targets given his performance last year?As to Austin specifically, what holes do you find in his game that should keep him from replicating? As good as Bryant may be, Austin has already shown he can perform at an ELITE level in the NFL, at least for one season. That's more than can be said for the vast majority of WRs. Even if Bryant is very good, how is it a given that he'll be better than Austin and thus deserve the ball more than him?

I think Austin's performance last year was because he got the targets, and because he was fighting for a job, and because Dallas had nobody else to turn to, and because Atlanta and KC didn't expect him those first couple weeks, and because teams were letting Austin beat them so they could contain Witten and keep the ground game in check, and because Dallas drew up their plays around a playmaker, and Austin was the only playmaker they had, and because their next best playmakers were a tight end, an injured running back who missed most of the year, a running back with a pulled quad, and Roy Williams. All of those things have changed this year, and none of that is good for Austin. Do I think that Dallas will deliberately choose not to go to Austin? Of course not. Do I think they will try to have a more balanced offense? Absolutely. Let's say Romo throws 525 passes this year, and completes 340 of them. That would be pretty close to a career year for Romo, and we'd have to assume that the Cowboys' rushing attempts didn't go up dramatically, but that's fine. Of those, Witten gets his 80-90 receptions again. That leaves us with 250-60. We'll assume the other TEs combine for just 20 receptions, which is a little low historically. That puts us around 230-240. Then we'll give the running backs the 60-75 receptions that they have routinely gotten - and it's worth noting that the Cowboys have had Felix working with the wide receivers and Barber is already a very good receive in his own right. That leaves us with 155-175 receptions for the entire receiving corps. Dez, Roy Williams, Ogletree and Hurd should catch 80-100 more passes between them - FBG has them predicted for 111. That leaves Austin with 44-64 receptions. Well, wait... that can't be right. He isn't going to have 44 receptions. So where are the other numbers wrong? Do you think that the Cowboys will have more than 1000 offensive plays next year? Will they go past their traditional pass/rush ratio which is about 54/46, even though their backs are healthy again? Will Witten underperform? Will the other receivers just drop off the face of the earth? Of course, any or all of those things could happen, and maybe one or two of them will. But even if we drop Witten to 80 receptions, the backs to their low end of 65, the total pass attempts to the high end of the Phillips/Romo era, and assume that Bryant, Crayton, Williams and co. combine for fewer than 80 passes between them, that barely gives us enough room for Austin to put up the kind of numbers he did last year. And while that is certainly possible, a lot of things worked out to give Austin a better opportunity last year than it appears he will have this year. I think it's great that you looked at other top 10 WR performances, but I don't understand how it's remotely scientific to just throw out the ones you didn't like. You're assuming that he will have the mental toughness to work as hard this year as he did last year when he was fighting for a job. Well, Roy Williams is a good example of a receiver who failed to do just that, and he's in the same locker room. Maybe his breakout year will be like Michael Clayton's, or Terry Glenn's - guys who blew up as rookies and then cooled way off. Maybe he'll be more like Joey Galloway, or Lance Moore, or any of a long history of guys who have blown up and then disappeared. I don't understand how you can just disregard every example of receivers who had good years and then dropped off the face of the earth, or use some arbitrary cutoff of top ten in-year fantasy ranking or whatever. It's not particularly meaningful data. You're right, though - the top ten has included a lot of the same names from year to year. But those guys were insanely good. Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Terrell Owens were perennial top 5 receivers. I don't put Austin in the same category as those guys at the peak of their careers. Not even close. And as you pointed out, we're talking about an undrafted receiver who hadn't shown anything like this in previous years. I don't mean to sound so negative. I completely agree with you on the most important thing - that he's more than capable of repeating last year's numbers, or at least regressing slightly from them. The place where we differ is that I think that that would require some good fortune for Austin, while you seem to take it for granted.

I appreciate the post and the thoughts. Keep in mind that, while I like Austin a lot, I'm not taking these things for granted. This is just how I view the situation next year and why I think Austin is a very safe bet.To start, your #'s are just a little off, IMO. You started out assuming that Romo will throw 525 passes next year. Dallas threw 550 times in 2009, 547 in 2008, and 531 in 2007. You're starting off with a 4 year low on attempts. As for completions, 340 completions is about right as they've completed 347, 328, and 342 over that same time frame. That's the beauty of this situation. Dallas (and Romo) have been remarkably consistent over the last 3 years. Now, as to the rest of your numbers, reading through them sounds great and all, but here is your bottom line.You're projecting the same # of receptions for WittenYou're projecting the same # of receptions for the backup TEYou're projecting the same # of receptions for the RB'sYou're projecting the same (actually more) # of receptions for the #2/3/4 WRsBut, you're suggesting that Austin will thus only be left with 45-65 catches using those #'s. So in other words, of all the places the #'s from last year will change, considering Austin had 81 catches, is that they will take it from their most dynamic playmaker and leave the rest intact. Doesn't that sound silly? So yeah, something will have to give somewhere. But, of all the places it will have to give, I doubt it will be from the #1 WR. It would be far more accurate to START with Austin, since he is currently the focal point of that offense, and then work from there. In doing so, the backup TE's may only 10 catches and the RBs may be ~60, and Roy being the #4 option (behind Austin, Witten, and Bryant) may, I don't know, actually see a dip from his already low 38 receptions as a #2 WR from last year.Crayton and Roy combined for 75 catches last year. Those guys are now relegated to the #3 and #4 WR options instead of #2 and #3. And considering how poorly they've performed and good Bryant is going to be, it's not unreasonable for those 75 catches to just go to Bryant as the #3 option and a few scraps going to whoever ends up as the #4 option in the offense. As of the 2010 NFL draft, Roy and Crayton are now afterthoughts in the Dallas offense. #4 and #5 options, at best. Those 2 guys won't be combining for 75 catches this year. Guaranteed. The interesting thing about your #'s is that, even with what seemingly looks like very little left for Austin (65 receptions at your upper limit), taking just 15 receptions from those other spots (backup TE's, depth WR's, and RB's) puts him right back to 80 catches. And, as long as his production doesn't completely nosedive, should be more than enough to replicate or at least come close to last year's numbers.Now, will he perform at the same level as last year? I find that a little more uncertain than whether or not he'll get enough balls thrown his way. It's definitely possible that he doesn't get all the RAC he got last year or sustains such a lofty YPR. It's possible he doesn't crack double digit TDs like last year. It's possible he doesn't catch as high of a % of his targets like last year. But the beauty of his game is that his performance wasn't at an unsustainable level. He wasn't like DeSean where he caught and inordinate number of 50+ yd TDs. He didn't catch an extraordinarily high % of his targets. He didn't put up an unsustainable YPR. I just find it very difficult to believe that, of all the things that will change next year, the targets and decreased workload will come at the expense of the current best playmaker on the team. It just doesn't make sense to me. Quite a few people wondered where Tony Gonzalez was going to get his from when moving to Atlanta. They already had a 300+ carry RB and a 140+ target hungry WR1. This was being added to a team that threw it an abysmal 434 times in 2008. Turner and Snelling (due to injury) still combined for 320 carries, Roddy got a career high 165 targets, Jenkins actually had a career high 90 targets, and Gonzalez STILL ended up with 135 targets on a team that only threw ~30 times to the TE. How did that happen? Because Gonzo is a top talent and deserved to get the ball and it found its way in his hands a lot. The same will happen in Dallas. I'm not sure if it'll come at the expense of backup TEs or RBs or WR3 or WR4. But, unless Austin's production starts to fall off, it'll come from any/all of those spots to make sure he touches the ball. And considering he finished WR3 per FBG scoring last year on just 81 receptions, it's not as if needs Marshall/Welker/AJ type receptions to perform well as long as his production doesn't dip due to his higher YPR and TD totals. THAT is the question, to me. Can he keep up that type of performance. Whether or not he gets enough balls which seems to be a bigger concern for others shouldn't be an issue even with Bryant in the mix. Austin won't hit 150 targets, which was possible before the draft, but he also shouldn't get less than last year either.

 

[Bankerguy]

I've got Austin barely cracking the WR Top 10 and I feel like I'm being generous putting him there. Dez Bryant has the tools, talent, and opportunity to be a Top 20 WR this year. In doing so, it will likely knock Austin down the ladder. Put me in the camp that believes he'll take a step back in numbers.

I'd like to think I am regarded as a pretty level headed Dallas homer. While I am a big fan of Austin and his story, I fully expect his numbers to go DOWN. Here are some interesting red zones stats:Targets By PositionInside Red Zone: WR 74% TE 14% RB 12%Outside Red Zone: WR 52% TE 33% RB 15%Red Zone Targets/Completions/RatingAustin 22/13 79yds 3td 1int 86.9Williams 14/8 54yds 6td 0int 105.4Crayton 13/7 62yds 4td 1int 74.4Witten 7/3 15yds 2td 1int 50.3Hurd 5/2 15ydsJones 4/4 -2ydsBarber 3/1 -1ydsBennett 2/1 11ydsChoice 2/1 7ydsPhillips 1/0Percentage of Red Zone TargetsAustin 30.0Williams 19.2Crayton 17.8Witten 9.5Hurd 6.8Jones 5.5Barber 4.2Bennett 2.8Choice 2.8Phillips 1.4OC Jason Garrett was roasted by fans and the local Dallas media for his red zone play calling. I fully expect Witten and Dez to eat into Austin's RZ looks.I am also likely in the minority with this next opinion. I believe Roy Williams (as much as I personally loathe him) will have a strong year and also eat into Austin's yards. Who are defenses going to double cover? It aint gonna be Roy, he bounces back slightly.Now don't get me wrong, Austin will be a solid WR both in real football and in FF. However, he is one WR I will likely not have on any of teams based on the projected ADPs.

 

[bostonfred]

I just find it very difficult to believe that, of all the things that will change next year, the targets and decreased workload will come at the expense of the current best playmaker on the team.

I don't think Austin is the current best playmaker on the team. I thought he was the best playmaker on the team last year. I think he's one of several good playmakers on the team this year. And actually, I think Romo was the best playmaker on the team last year. Austin was just Romo's best receiver. Maybe that's a better way of looking at it. I honestly don't think Austin is all that special. I think he's very good, but not one of the all time greats.

 

[gianmarco]

I just find it very difficult to believe that, of all the things that will change next year, the targets and decreased workload will come at the expense of the current best playmaker on the team.

I don't think Austin is the current best playmaker on the team. I thought he was the best playmaker on the team last year. I think he's one of several good playmakers on the team this year. And actually, I think Romo was the best playmaker on the team last year. Austin was just Romo's best receiver. Maybe that's a better way of looking at it. I honestly don't think Austin is all that special. I think he's very good, but not one of the all time greats.

That's probably why we disagree on him and makes sense why you view his 2010 prospects like you do. It's always tough trying to figure out if players that break out are for real or not. We'll see this year

 

[Andy Herron]

I just find it very difficult to believe that, of all the things that will change next year, the targets and decreased workload will come at the expense of the current best playmaker on the team.

I don't think Austin is the current best playmaker on the team. I thought he was the best playmaker on the team last year. I think he's one of several good playmakers on the team this year. And actually, I think Romo was the best playmaker on the team last year. Austin was just Romo's best receiver. Maybe that's a better way of looking at it. I honestly don't think Austin is all that special. I think he's very good, but not one of the all time greats.

You're right. Not to put him in the same circle, but at this point in his career Romo drives the Cowboys offense much like Peyton drives the Colts. Without them, the entire offense suffers it's most significant loss possible by but a single player.Romo only stands alone in this category solely due to the great depth at all of the other skill positions. The degree of drop-off is greater at QB. His play outside of the first Giants game last season was always more than acceptable. He was doing his job, and doing it at a high level.

ETA: Don't get me wrong- I think Austin is great and have no reason to think he won't continue to be. I just think that he will be a bigger weapon but not necessarily post bigger numbers. If I had to make a stab at it I'd simply go with figures close to last year's all things considered. My money's on "nearly duplicate to 2009."

 

[Ridgelake]

FWIW, in Friday's press conference, Wade was saying how effective Austin has been working out of the slot.

This implies Roy and Dez on the outside. Roy's game is better for the outside. Dez is probably being only taught the outside stuff right now to keep his learning curve easier. But more importantly, its also is a formation that tends to get the slot man on the nickel (#3) CB. AUstin is a mismatch for any #3. And the slot man across from him is Witten. Defenses will have fun matching up with Austin and Witten in the slot when Dallas goes 4 wide.

Part of why Welker's numbers are so ridiculous is that he rarely faces the top CB and its tough to double him. Seems like Dallas is trying some of these same tricks for Austin.

 

[TaxMan]

I'll also add that the idea that an offense can't support so many passing options isn't true. It's not common, but most teams don't have the trio of passing options like Dallas will have. However, look no further than Indy last year.Wayne -- 149 targetsD. Clark -- 132 targetsGarcon -- 92 targetsCollie -- 90 targetsRBs -- 90 targetsThat's FOUR options with a substantial number of targets. If either Collie or Garcon weren't in the picture, then you'd easily have seen 3 players with 120+ targets. Similarly, look at Arizona in 2008Fitzgerald -- 154 targetsBoldin -- 126 targetsBreaston -- 113 targetsUrban -- 51 targets to bootOh, and add another 90 targets for Hightower/Arrington that year (and almost 30 more for Edge/Castille/Smith).Now, I know that Arizona also had a ton of passing attempts that year and a significantly worse running game than Dallas and that definitely factors in as well, but it's feasible for Austin to maintain ~120 targets while Witten and Bryant still get a significant share without throwing 600 times/year. Just removing Urban's 51 targets + 30 for misc. RBs is 80+ targets that would easily drop them to the 550 passing attempts that Dallas has averaged over the last couple of years.

Last year, GB threw 550 times, and Jennings lead the team in targets at 119. 2008, Colts threw 585 times and Wayne led team with 129 targets. So it Is possible Miles will lead Dallas WRs in targets with similar targets considering all the weapons they got. Miles catch rate was 67.5 pct last year and that's unlikely to be repeated so I won't be surprised if Miles ends up with rec in the 70s.

 

[LawFitz]

This thread really makes me want to draft Tony Romo. If Dez is the real deal, Romo will be the value play at QB this year.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

This thread really makes me want to draft Tony Romo. If Dez is the real deal, Romo will be the value play at QB this year.

Agreed. The best part is that he can be had as the 4th or 5th QB off the boards. I don't think many people will take Romo over Rodgers, Brees and Manning and perhaps even Brady or Schaub, depending on the league's interests. I also like Cutler, especially if 8-10 QBs are already off the board. Starting QBs are deep this year. Ten 4,000 yard passers will tend to do that.

 

[Ray_T]

This thread really makes me want to draft Tony Romo. If Dez is the real deal, Romo will be the value play at QB this year.

Agreed. The best part is that he can be had as the 4th or 5th QB off the boards. I don't think many people will take Romo over Rodgers, Brees and Manning and perhaps even Brady or Schaub, depending on the league's interests. I also like Cutler, especially if 8-10 QBs are already off the board. Starting QBs are deep this year. Ten 4,000 yard passers will tend to do that.

I agree. If Dez is as good as advertised, Romo will be a great guy to pick.it is also possible that Dez may steal some looks from Austin. I dont think this will be a huge factor until the second half of the season, but it is possible.

 

[baconisgood]

I'll also add that the idea that an offense can't support so many passing options isn't true. It's not common, but most teams don't have the trio of passing options like Dallas will have. However, look no further than Indy last year.Wayne -- 149 targetsD. Clark -- 132 targetsGarcon -- 92 targetsCollie -- 90 targetsRBs -- 90 targets

Similarly, look at Arizona in 2008Fitzgerald -- 154 targetsBoldin -- 126 targetsBreaston -- 113 targetsUrban -- 51 targets to boot

The Colts were 2nd last is rushing attempts in 2009, the Cardinals last in rushing attempts in 2008. With their Oline, Barber, Jones and Choice the Cowboys just aren't going to be one of "those" teams.

 

[Garts]

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Report...Kardashian.html

 

[blackbird001]

I'm late to this thread, and haven't covered it with a fine tooth comb, so forgive me if I mention points already raised.

A couple of things being overlooked in people forecasting a regression:

a) I expect Witten to be held in for extra protection due to the uncertainty at LT. If Free or Barron establish themselves as competent to protect Romo, then maybe that will free up Witten, but games against tough pass rushers like Minnesota for sure Witten will be in on max-protect. I don't think Witten is a lock for 80-90 catches.

b) Betting on Dez is nice and trendy, but few WR come in and spank their rookie year. Even if he is the second coming, expect 50 catches, 700 yards, and 5 TDs.

c) Austin has 4-5 years of chemistry with Romo. Look past the size, speed, and talent. Austin has the same chemistry with Romo that Witten enjoys. Dez Bryant will eventually gain Romo's trust and develop chemistry, but it's not going to immediately blossom in 2010.

 

[baconisgood]

I'm late to this thread, and haven't covered it with a fine tooth comb, so forgive me if I mention points already raised.

A couple of things being overlooked in people forecasting a regression:

a) I expect Witten to be held in for extra protection due to the uncertainty at LT. If Free or Barron establish themselves as competent to protect Romo, then maybe that will free up Witten, but games against tough pass rushers like Minnesota for sure Witten will be in on max-protect. I don't think Witten is a lock for 80-90 catches.

b) Betting on Dez is nice and trendy, but few WR come in and spank their rookie year. Even if he is the second coming, expect 50 catches, 700 yards, and 5 TDs.

c) Austin has 4-5 years of chemistry with Romo. Look past the size, speed, and talent. Austin has the same chemistry with Romo that Witten enjoys. Dez Bryant will eventually gain Romo's trust and develop chemistry, but it's not going to immediately blossom in 2010.

Pro football focus rated Flozell Adams as a `-10 on pass protection last season. He is a beast of a run blocker (+10.8) but he was released and has yet to find a team for a reason (well two reasons when you consider his penalty issues).

 

[Avery]

c) Austin has 4-5 years of chemistry with Romo. Look past the size, speed, and talent. Austin has the same chemistry with Romo that Witten enjoys. Dez Bryant will eventually gain Romo's trust and develop chemistry, but it's not going to immediately blossom in 2010.

That's just not accurate.Witten has been the starting TE for years catching 429 regular season passes in Dallas going into last year while Austin had caught a career total of 18 balls going into last year, when he entered the season as Dallas' third WR, I believe.

Sure Austin had great success last year and has obviously had more "chemistry" with Romo than Bryant at this point, it's silly compare Austin's and Witten's history with Romo.

 

[blackbird001]

c) Austin has 4-5 years of chemistry with Romo. Look past the size, speed, and talent. Austin has the same chemistry with Romo that Witten enjoys. Dez Bryant will eventually gain Romo's trust and develop chemistry, but it's not going to immediately blossom in 2010.

That's just not accurate.Witten has been the starting TE for years catching 429 regular season passes in Dallas going into last year while Austin had caught a career total of 18 balls going into last year, when he entered the season as Dallas' third WR, I believe.

Sure Austin had great success last year and has obviously had more "chemistry" with Romo than Bryant at this point, it's silly compare Austin's and Witten's history with Romo.

Well, I guess it depends on your definition of accurate. While it's true, that Romo and Witten are friends and go to Cabo together, Miles Austin has been a Cowboy for 4 years and has had Romo throwing to him in OTA's, camp, etc. You can overlook that if you like, but in terms of a QB trusting a receiver (WR or TE) to run precise routes and in terms of receivers knowing how their passer thinks and reacts, Austin enjoys the same level of comfort and chemistry with Romo that Witten does. Dez Bryant is not going to come in and immediately have that rapport.

Obviously, Witten has been the starter for longer and thus has more regular season production.

 

[Avery]

c) Austin has 4-5 years of chemistry with Romo. Look past the size, speed, and talent. Austin has the same chemistry with Romo that Witten enjoys. Dez Bryant will eventually gain Romo's trust and develop chemistry, but it's not going to immediately blossom in 2010.

That's just not accurate.Witten has been the starting TE for years catching 429 regular season passes in Dallas going into last year while Austin had caught a career total of 18 balls going into last year, when he entered the season as Dallas' third WR, I believe.

Sure Austin had great success last year and has obviously had more "chemistry" with Romo than Bryant at this point, it's silly compare Austin's and Witten's history with Romo.

Well, I guess it depends on your definition of accurate. While it's true, that Romo and Witten are friends and go to Cabo together, Miles Austin has been a Cowboy for 4 years and has had Romo throwing to him in OTA's, camp, etc. You can overlook that if you like, but in terms of a QB trusting a receiver (WR or TE) to run precise routes and in terms of receivers knowing how their passer thinks and reacts, Austin enjoys the same level of comfort and chemistry with Romo that Witten does. Dez Bryant is not going to come in and immediately have that rapport.

Obviously, Witten has been the starter for longer and thus has more regular season production.

Fine. The guy was started last year as the third WR and was further down the depth chart his previous three years receiving most of his practice passes from the likes of Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger has the same level of rapport with Tony Romo as his pro bowl TE.

That makes perfect sense...

 

[blackbird001]

c) Austin has 4-5 years of chemistry with Romo. Look past the size, speed, and talent. Austin has the same chemistry with Romo that Witten enjoys. Dez Bryant will eventually gain Romo's trust and develop chemistry, but it's not going to immediately blossom in 2010.

That's just not accurate.Witten has been the starting TE for years catching 429 regular season passes in Dallas going into last year while Austin had caught a career total of 18 balls going into last year, when he entered the season as Dallas' third WR, I believe.

Sure Austin had great success last year and has obviously had more "chemistry" with Romo than Bryant at this point, it's silly compare Austin's and Witten's history with Romo.

Well, I guess it depends on your definition of accurate. While it's true, that Romo and Witten are friends and go to Cabo together, Miles Austin has been a Cowboy for 4 years and has had Romo throwing to him in OTA's, camp, etc. You can overlook that if you like, but in terms of a QB trusting a receiver (WR or TE) to run precise routes and in terms of receivers knowing how their passer thinks and reacts, Austin enjoys the same level of comfort and chemistry with Romo that Witten does. Dez Bryant is not going to come in and immediately have that rapport.

Obviously, Witten has been the starter for longer and thus has more regular season production.

Fine. The guy was started last year as the third WR and was further down the depth chart his previous three years receiving most of his practice passes from the likes of Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger has the same level of rapport with Tony Romo as his pro bowl TE.

That makes perfect sense...

You're right. I'm sure in 4 years, they never even passed each other in the halls. Much more realistic.

 

[Avery]

c) Austin has 4-5 years of chemistry with Romo. Look past the size, speed, and talent. Austin has the same chemistry with Romo that Witten enjoys. Dez Bryant will eventually gain Romo's trust and develop chemistry, but it's not going to immediately blossom in 2010.

That's just not accurate.Witten has been the starting TE for years catching 429 regular season passes in Dallas going into last year while Austin had caught a career total of 18 balls going into last year, when he entered the season as Dallas' third WR, I believe.

Sure Austin had great success last year and has obviously had more "chemistry" with Romo than Bryant at this point, it's silly compare Austin's and Witten's history with Romo.

Well, I guess it depends on your definition of accurate. While it's true, that Romo and Witten are friends and go to Cabo together, Miles Austin has been a Cowboy for 4 years and has had Romo throwing to him in OTA's, camp, etc. You can overlook that if you like, but in terms of a QB trusting a receiver (WR or TE) to run precise routes and in terms of receivers knowing how their passer thinks and reacts, Austin enjoys the same level of comfort and chemistry with Romo that Witten does. Dez Bryant is not going to come in and immediately have that rapport.

Obviously, Witten has been the starter for longer and thus has more regular season production.

Fine. The guy was started last year as the third WR and was further down the depth chart his previous three years receiving most of his practice passes from the likes of Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger has the same level of rapport with Tony Romo as his pro bowl TE.

That makes perfect sense...

You're right. I'm sure in 4 years, they never even passed each other in the halls. Much more realistic.

Please show me where I said that?

 

[SuperJohn96]

It's easy to be optimistic about everyone in the spring and summer. Just take last year's numbers, and assume that the players are going to improve. Especially young players, or players who seemed to emerge throughout the year. Not everybody improves, of course, so the trick is figuring out which players will actually get better, and which won't.

So let's break down his season and see if there's reason for optimism.

First of all, he wasn't a starter early on. His first four games, he had 5 catches for 81 yards, total, with no TDs, and got shut out entirely in week 3. That's good news for people who think Austin will put up even bigger numbers as a full-year starter. It seems like one of the big reasons people are expecting his numbers to improve next year is that he put up huge numbers while only starting 12 games.

But the flip side of that coin is weeks 5 and 6, when Austin put up his biggest games of the season. 10 catches for 250 yards and 2 TDs against Kansas City. 6 more catches for 171 and 2 TDs. 16 catches for 421 yards and 4 TDs is about a third of his production last year, and he put it up in his first two games as a starter when his opponents had no reason to gameplan for him.

It's hardly reasonable to hold his first four weeks against him, nor to assume he'll catch opponents by surprise like he did against KC and Atlanta. So let's look at his final ten weeks of the season. 66 catches for 818 yards and 7 TDs. That prorates out to 105 catches for 1300 yards and 11 TDs - higher receptions, but otherwise almost exactly the numbers he put up this year. So instead of automatically upgrading his numbers because he didn't begin the season as a starter, his numbers suggest that, if we replayed the 2009 season with him as a 16 game starter, his numbers would probably have been about the same.

So now the question is, will his numbers improve or decrease this year?

With Austin, I feel like a lot of things had to happen right for him to get his numbers. Witten started out slow. The complimentary receivers all sucked. Romo locked in to him for stretches - partly because opponents were game planning for the running game or for Witten instead of Austin, and partly because the Cowboys didn't have a lot of other playmakers.

A lot of those things have changed this year.

First, the Cowboys have added Dez Bryant. Adding a complimentary receiver doesn't necessarily help or hurt a WR - Fitz put up great numbers with Boldin, and vice versa. But in this case, they already had a complimentary receiver. Witten. Adding Bryant seems more likely to hurt Austin's targets than help them. And while Austin may do better with those targets as a result, he already averaged over 16 YPR. I don't think there's enough room for improvement to assume he's going to continue to improve.

But it's not just Bryant. They've also got Felix back, and a healthier Barber. Felix and Barber give the offense another area to look for playmakers. And that hurts Austin, because last year, the only playmakers the Cowboys had for long stretches of time were Austin and Witten. So Austin may get lost in the shuffle.

There are reasons for concern here - Austin's totally unexpected numbers have to make you suspicious that this was just one of those perfect storm type seasons. To me, I downgrade him a little, and put him closer to 70 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs. Not bad numbers, but also not worthy of a top 20 pick.

To me these things merely come out as washes. Why? Because we never really go back and study past situations to determine why they help in some situations and hurt in others.So having another good WR opposite you can help or hurt. So which is it for Austin? It could mean fewer targets for Austin but it could also mean less attention to him? Why would a DC prefer to get torched by Witten or Bryant instead of Austin? If a rookie Bryant is so talented that he commands more targets than did Roy Williams last year (which is a whole other debate), wouldn't it also occur to opposing DC's that they better keep an eye on this kid? Given his status as the top WR prospect in the draft, their team probably worked him over with a fine toothed comb leading up the draft. And since it took all of two games for DC's to start paying attention to Austin last year, why would anyone think an effective Bryant will roll for 16 games taking targets away from Austin yet not also attract an increasing amount of DC attention? It doesn't make sense. If Bryant does something with his targets, he will get more and more attention, same as Austin did. In fact, given his pedigree, he will probably still be on everyone's radar if he's a game 1 starter. The more hype Bryant gets preseason, I think the more attention he gets on the field. No one is going to see an explosive game from him as a fluke.

So unless someone really goes back and breaks down situations to determine why in the past the addition of another playmaker at WR helps in some situations but hurts in others, I don't get that concerned, particularly when that new WR is a rookie. Unless you think Bryant is so good that he overtakes and surpasses Austin as the #1 this year, as a rookie, I don't downgrade Austin for 2010 because of Bryant's addition.

The same thing goes for F.Jones and the running game. Does a stronger running game mean less passes or does it mean one less safety roaming the secondary? Does it mean more DB's with eyes in the backfield and LB's hesitating to drop back into their zones to see if Felix is getting a short dump-off? It might mean some of all of these at the same time. Which means you really have to net those factors. And, just like with adding a complimentary playmaker at WR, I'm not aware of any study or theory which allows for any predictability when deciding whether or not a particular player's situation will progress, regress or remain stable when you improve the RB talent.

I tend to default to the idea that a rising tide lifts all ships. If F.Jones or D.Bryant can move the chains on a play that last year would have resulted in a 4th down because of the attention Austin was getting from DC's, that simply gives Austin another 3 plays this season in which to get another target.

You have to consider that while Dez Bryant seems to be everything you could want in a WR, he isn't the first guy to come into the league looking like that. Is Dez any better a prospect now than Roy Williams was when he was a rookie? Compare that to the fact that no one has ever done what Austin did last year in terms of emerging. Sure, some things had to line up right for Austin to put up those numbers, but one of those things had to be Austin's talent. You can't seperate out that you need the right guy in the right place at the right time. It isn't just any guy in the right place at the right time. If it didn't take real talent to put up those numbers in that situation, I'd argue that more players would be capable of doing so...and that Austin wouldn't be the sole occupier of that position in history.

Harrison/WayneCarter/Moss

Bruce/Holt

There's room for plenty of catches if the QB is any good.

 

[blackbird001]

I'm not going to go back and explain anything from your text. I believe it's pretty obvious what you were intimating.

As a cowboys fan who has seen Romo throw to Austin in training camp. As an NFL follower who's read every little quote released by the local and national media reagarding OTA's/camp. Hell, as a fantasy owner who read Jerry Jones hype Austin as a potential replacement for Owens last off-season. I was not surprised that Austin blossomed last year. While I didn't expect the level of production he put out, I recognized he had all of the things you look for in a WR AND he has had the benefit of working for several years with Romo.

Now, if you want to believe that he burst onto the scene last year as an undrafted free agent and your only explanation is that defensive coordinators had no film on him, then fine. But, don't dismiss the behind the scenes work that transpired. I mean watch some of the highlights from last year. Romo drops that ball perfectly into Austin's hands while he is in stride. Do you really think thats the first time they have done that?

Your original denial was based purely on regular season production and every thing since then has been an attempt to minimize my original claim of the work they've done in the off-season.

If you concede that I've demonstrated more knowledge about the offseason activities of the Cowboys, I will concede to you that I don't know what Romo's vacation plans are this year and/or who from his team is invited.

 

[Avery]

I'm not going to go back and explain anything from your text. I believe it's pretty obvious what you were intimating.As a cowboys fan who has seen Romo throw to Austin in training camp. As an NFL follower who's read every little quote released by the local and national media reagarding OTA's/camp. Hell, as a fantasy owner who read Jerry Jones hype Austin as a potential replacement for Owens last off-season. I was not surprised that Austin blossomed last year. While I didn't expect the level of production he put out, I recognized he had all of the things you look for in a WR AND he has had the benefit of working for several years with Romo.Now, if you want to believe that he burst onto the scene last year as an undrafted free agent and your only explanation is that defensive coordinators had no film on him, then fine. But, don't dismiss the behind the scenes work that transpired. I mean watch some of the highlights from last year. Romo drops that ball perfectly into Austin's hands while he is in stride. Do you really think thats the first time they have done that?Your original denial was based purely on regular season production and every thing since then has been an attempt to minimize my original claim of the work they've done in the off-season. If you concede that I've demonstrated more knowledge about the offseason activities of the Cowboys, I will concede to you that I don't know what Romo's vacation plans are this year and/or who from his team is invited.

Assuming you're talking to me, I have no idea how you extrapolated all that from the simple and obvious (to most) fact that a one year starter doesn't have the same rapport with his QB as his six year starter pro bowl TE. He just doesn't. They have definitely shown a nice rapport but they just don't know each others game as well as Romo and Witten do. That is the sum of what I said.Everything else you're arguing against the wall.I never said Austin's success is predicated only on being an unknown entity to opposing defenses.I'm sure Romo and Austin have worked in the off-season together.I never dismissed the work that Austin and Romo put in last year.I'll now leave you alone to continue arguing against that wall because I think you're about to take it to the mat.

 

[SuperJohn96]

I heard that Miles Austin is dating Kim Kardashian now...he can't have his eyes on the prize with her around (.)(.)

 

[baconisgood]

It's easy to be optimistic about everyone in the spring and summer. Just take last year's numbers, and assume that the players are going to improve. Especially young players, or players who seemed to emerge throughout the year. Not everybody improves, of course, so the trick is figuring out which players will actually get better, and which won't.

So let's break down his season and see if there's reason for optimism.

First of all, he wasn't a starter early on. His first four games, he had 5 catches for 81 yards, total, with no TDs, and got shut out entirely in week 3. That's good news for people who think Austin will put up even bigger numbers as a full-year starter. It seems like one of the big reasons people are expecting his numbers to improve next year is that he put up huge numbers while only starting 12 games.

But the flip side of that coin is weeks 5 and 6, when Austin put up his biggest games of the season. 10 catches for 250 yards and 2 TDs against Kansas City. 6 more catches for 171 and 2 TDs. 16 catches for 421 yards and 4 TDs is about a third of his production last year, and he put it up in his first two games as a starter when his opponents had no reason to gameplan for him.

It's hardly reasonable to hold his first four weeks against him, nor to assume he'll catch opponents by surprise like he did against KC and Atlanta. So let's look at his final ten weeks of the season. 66 catches for 818 yards and 7 TDs. That prorates out to 105 catches for 1300 yards and 11 TDs - higher receptions, but otherwise almost exactly the numbers he put up this year. So instead of automatically upgrading his numbers because he didn't begin the season as a starter, his numbers suggest that, if we replayed the 2009 season with him as a 16 game starter, his numbers would probably have been about the same.

So now the question is, will his numbers improve or decrease this year?

With Austin, I feel like a lot of things had to happen right for him to get his numbers. Witten started out slow. The complimentary receivers all sucked. Romo locked in to him for stretches - partly because opponents were game planning for the running game or for Witten instead of Austin, and partly because the Cowboys didn't have a lot of other playmakers.

A lot of those things have changed this year.

First, the Cowboys have added Dez Bryant. Adding a complimentary receiver doesn't necessarily help or hurt a WR - Fitz put up great numbers with Boldin, and vice versa. But in this case, they already had a complimentary receiver. Witten. Adding Bryant seems more likely to hurt Austin's targets than help them. And while Austin may do better with those targets as a result, he already averaged over 16 YPR. I don't think there's enough room for improvement to assume he's going to continue to improve.

But it's not just Bryant. They've also got Felix back, and a healthier Barber. Felix and Barber give the offense another area to look for playmakers. And that hurts Austin, because last year, the only playmakers the Cowboys had for long stretches of time were Austin and Witten. So Austin may get lost in the shuffle.

There are reasons for concern here - Austin's totally unexpected numbers have to make you suspicious that this was just one of those perfect storm type seasons. To me, I downgrade him a little, and put him closer to 70 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs. Not bad numbers, but also not worthy of a top 20 pick.

To me these things merely come out as washes. Why? Because we never really go back and study past situations to determine why they help in some situations and hurt in others.So having another good WR opposite you can help or hurt. So which is it for Austin? It could mean fewer targets for Austin but it could also mean less attention to him? Why would a DC prefer to get torched by Witten or Bryant instead of Austin? If a rookie Bryant is so talented that he commands more targets than did Roy Williams last year (which is a whole other debate), wouldn't it also occur to opposing DC's that they better keep an eye on this kid? Given his status as the top WR prospect in the draft, their team probably worked him over with a fine toothed comb leading up the draft. And since it took all of two games for DC's to start paying attention to Austin last year, why would anyone think an effective Bryant will roll for 16 games taking targets away from Austin yet not also attract an increasing amount of DC attention? It doesn't make sense. If Bryant does something with his targets, he will get more and more attention, same as Austin did. In fact, given his pedigree, he will probably still be on everyone's radar if he's a game 1 starter. The more hype Bryant gets preseason, I think the more attention he gets on the field. No one is going to see an explosive game from him as a fluke.

So unless someone really goes back and breaks down situations to determine why in the past the addition of another playmaker at WR helps in some situations but hurts in others, I don't get that concerned, particularly when that new WR is a rookie. Unless you think Bryant is so good that he overtakes and surpasses Austin as the #1 this year, as a rookie, I don't downgrade Austin for 2010 because of Bryant's addition.

The same thing goes for F.Jones and the running game. Does a stronger running game mean less passes or does it mean one less safety roaming the secondary? Does it mean more DB's with eyes in the backfield and LB's hesitating to drop back into their zones to see if Felix is getting a short dump-off? It might mean some of all of these at the same time. Which means you really have to net those factors. And, just like with adding a complimentary playmaker at WR, I'm not aware of any study or theory which allows for any predictability when deciding whether or not a particular player's situation will progress, regress or remain stable when you improve the RB talent.

I tend to default to the idea that a rising tide lifts all ships. If F.Jones or D.Bryant can move the chains on a play that last year would have resulted in a 4th down because of the attention Austin was getting from DC's, that simply gives Austin another 3 plays this season in which to get another target.

You have to consider that while Dez Bryant seems to be everything you could want in a WR, he isn't the first guy to come into the league looking like that. Is Dez any better a prospect now than Roy Williams was when he was a rookie? Compare that to the fact that no one has ever done what Austin did last year in terms of emerging. Sure, some things had to line up right for Austin to put up those numbers, but one of those things had to be Austin's talent. You can't seperate out that you need the right guy in the right place at the right time. It isn't just any guy in the right place at the right time. If it didn't take real talent to put up those numbers in that situation, I'd argue that more players would be capable of doing so...and that Austin wouldn't be the sole occupier of that position in history.

Harrison/WayneCarter/Moss

Bruce/Holt

There's room for plenty of catches if the QB is any good.

Issac Bruce put up 1781 and 1338 yards in seasons 2+3 - his only fully healthy seasons before Holt showed up. Post Holt he bested 1300 (1471) yards once and 1200 yards twice in 6 fully healthy seasons (missed 1 game over that span), Harrison averaged 1580 yards over 4 seasons with 2 seasons prior to Wayne and 2 seasons with Wayne developing. Once Wayne hit his stride Harrison's production dropped precipitously. Moss' appearance didn't seem to hamper Carter's fantasy production much.

 

[blackbird001]

I'll now leave you alone...

Probably a good idea...I think one of us should have done this hours ago.

 

[mrip541]

What I'm worried about is not this year but future years. Paying Austin's current ADP in keeper or dynasty could turn out to be a huge mistake IF Dez turns out to be as good as he thinks he is. Particularly worrisome when you consider Austin's lack of production during his other 3 years in the league. Gives me the feeling that yeah he's good but so is Dez and maybe it's just Romo being great enough to make anyone look good. I mean Austin isn't the fastest, tallest, most athletic, or have the best track record. I'm not convinced he can't be replaced.

 

[Garts]

I mean Austin isn't the fastest, tallest, most athletic, or have the best track record. I'm not convinced he can't be replaced.

There are simply not that many guys with the athletic skills and physical abilities Miles posseses. And if the do they are useless....see Roy Williams for example.

 

[bostonfred]

It's easy to be optimistic about everyone in the spring and summer. Just take last year's numbers, and assume that the players are going to improve. Especially young players, or players who seemed to emerge throughout the year. Not everybody improves, of course, so the trick is figuring out which players will actually get better, and which won't.

So let's break down his season and see if there's reason for optimism.

First of all, he wasn't a starter early on. His first four games, he had 5 catches for 81 yards, total, with no TDs, and got shut out entirely in week 3. That's good news for people who think Austin will put up even bigger numbers as a full-year starter. It seems like one of the big reasons people are expecting his numbers to improve next year is that he put up huge numbers while only starting 12 games.

But the flip side of that coin is weeks 5 and 6, when Austin put up his biggest games of the season. 10 catches for 250 yards and 2 TDs against Kansas City. 6 more catches for 171 and 2 TDs. 16 catches for 421 yards and 4 TDs is about a third of his production last year, and he put it up in his first two games as a starter when his opponents had no reason to gameplan for him.

It's hardly reasonable to hold his first four weeks against him, nor to assume he'll catch opponents by surprise like he did against KC and Atlanta. So let's look at his final ten weeks of the season. 66 catches for 818 yards and 7 TDs. That prorates out to 105 catches for 1300 yards and 11 TDs - higher receptions, but otherwise almost exactly the numbers he put up this year. So instead of automatically upgrading his numbers because he didn't begin the season as a starter, his numbers suggest that, if we replayed the 2009 season with him as a 16 game starter, his numbers would probably have been about the same.

So now the question is, will his numbers improve or decrease this year?

With Austin, I feel like a lot of things had to happen right for him to get his numbers. Witten started out slow. The complimentary receivers all sucked. Romo locked in to him for stretches - partly because opponents were game planning for the running game or for Witten instead of Austin, and partly because the Cowboys didn't have a lot of other playmakers.

A lot of those things have changed this year.

First, the Cowboys have added Dez Bryant. Adding a complimentary receiver doesn't necessarily help or hurt a WR - Fitz put up great numbers with Boldin, and vice versa. But in this case, they already had a complimentary receiver. Witten. Adding Bryant seems more likely to hurt Austin's targets than help them. And while Austin may do better with those targets as a result, he already averaged over 16 YPR. I don't think there's enough room for improvement to assume he's going to continue to improve.

But it's not just Bryant. They've also got Felix back, and a healthier Barber. Felix and Barber give the offense another area to look for playmakers. And that hurts Austin, because last year, the only playmakers the Cowboys had for long stretches of time were Austin and Witten. So Austin may get lost in the shuffle.

There are reasons for concern here - Austin's totally unexpected numbers have to make you suspicious that this was just one of those perfect storm type seasons. To me, I downgrade him a little, and put him closer to 70 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs. Not bad numbers, but also not worthy of a top 20 pick.

To me these things merely come out as washes. Why? Because we never really go back and study past situations to determine why they help in some situations and hurt in others.So having another good WR opposite you can help or hurt. So which is it for Austin? It could mean fewer targets for Austin but it could also mean less attention to him? Why would a DC prefer to get torched by Witten or Bryant instead of Austin? If a rookie Bryant is so talented that he commands more targets than did Roy Williams last year (which is a whole other debate), wouldn't it also occur to opposing DC's that they better keep an eye on this kid? Given his status as the top WR prospect in the draft, their team probably worked him over with a fine toothed comb leading up the draft. And since it took all of two games for DC's to start paying attention to Austin last year, why would anyone think an effective Bryant will roll for 16 games taking targets away from Austin yet not also attract an increasing amount of DC attention? It doesn't make sense. If Bryant does something with his targets, he will get more and more attention, same as Austin did. In fact, given his pedigree, he will probably still be on everyone's radar if he's a game 1 starter. The more hype Bryant gets preseason, I think the more attention he gets on the field. No one is going to see an explosive game from him as a fluke.

So unless someone really goes back and breaks down situations to determine why in the past the addition of another playmaker at WR helps in some situations but hurts in others, I don't get that concerned, particularly when that new WR is a rookie. Unless you think Bryant is so good that he overtakes and surpasses Austin as the #1 this year, as a rookie, I don't downgrade Austin for 2010 because of Bryant's addition.

The same thing goes for F.Jones and the running game. Does a stronger running game mean less passes or does it mean one less safety roaming the secondary? Does it mean more DB's with eyes in the backfield and LB's hesitating to drop back into their zones to see if Felix is getting a short dump-off? It might mean some of all of these at the same time. Which means you really have to net those factors. And, just like with adding a complimentary playmaker at WR, I'm not aware of any study or theory which allows for any predictability when deciding whether or not a particular player's situation will progress, regress or remain stable when you improve the RB talent.

I tend to default to the idea that a rising tide lifts all ships. If F.Jones or D.Bryant can move the chains on a play that last year would have resulted in a 4th down because of the attention Austin was getting from DC's, that simply gives Austin another 3 plays this season in which to get another target.

You have to consider that while Dez Bryant seems to be everything you could want in a WR, he isn't the first guy to come into the league looking like that. Is Dez any better a prospect now than Roy Williams was when he was a rookie? Compare that to the fact that no one has ever done what Austin did last year in terms of emerging. Sure, some things had to line up right for Austin to put up those numbers, but one of those things had to be Austin's talent. You can't seperate out that you need the right guy in the right place at the right time. It isn't just any guy in the right place at the right time. If it didn't take real talent to put up those numbers in that situation, I'd argue that more players would be capable of doing so...and that Austin wouldn't be the sole occupier of that position in history.

Harrison/WayneCarter/Moss

Bruce/Holt

There's room for plenty of catches if the QB is any good.

I missed this when it was posted. I agree that a second receiver can either help or hurt. This isn't a case of "there's a second receiver". There is a third receiver - Witten, Dez Bryant and Miles. And they have the running game back together, and want to use Felix as a playmaker. That's a lot of mouths to feed. Yes, there's plenty of room for two guys to get catches on the same team. I remember one year where Burress and Ward were both rated as top 10 receivers with a QB who wasn't even top 20, and we had this debate ad nauseum. The problem for me with Austin is that I specifically and only believe that Austin blew up like he did last year because he was the only playmaker on the team, and I no longer believe that to be the case. I believe he will still have some very good games and that he will still be a decent WR, I just think his current ADP is ridiculous.

 

[golfguy]

It's easy to be optimistic about everyone in the spring and summer. Just take last year's numbers, and assume that the players are going to improve. Especially young players, or players who seemed to emerge throughout the year. Not everybody improves, of course, so the trick is figuring out which players will actually get better, and which won't.

So let's break down his season and see if there's reason for optimism.

First of all, he wasn't a starter early on. His first four games, he had 5 catches for 81 yards, total, with no TDs, and got shut out entirely in week 3. That's good news for people who think Austin will put up even bigger numbers as a full-year starter. It seems like one of the big reasons people are expecting his numbers to improve next year is that he put up huge numbers while only starting 12 games.

But the flip side of that coin is weeks 5 and 6, when Austin put up his biggest games of the season. 10 catches for 250 yards and 2 TDs against Kansas City. 6 more catches for 171 and 2 TDs. 16 catches for 421 yards and 4 TDs is about a third of his production last year, and he put it up in his first two games as a starter when his opponents had no reason to gameplan for him.

It's hardly reasonable to hold his first four weeks against him, nor to assume he'll catch opponents by surprise like he did against KC and Atlanta. So let's look at his final ten weeks of the season. 66 catches for 818 yards and 7 TDs. That prorates out to 105 catches for 1300 yards and 11 TDs - higher receptions, but otherwise almost exactly the numbers he put up this year. So instead of automatically upgrading his numbers because he didn't begin the season as a starter, his numbers suggest that, if we replayed the 2009 season with him as a 16 game starter, his numbers would probably have been about the same.

So now the question is, will his numbers improve or decrease this year?

With Austin, I feel like a lot of things had to happen right for him to get his numbers. Witten started out slow. The complimentary receivers all sucked. Romo locked in to him for stretches - partly because opponents were game planning for the running game or for Witten instead of Austin, and partly because the Cowboys didn't have a lot of other playmakers.

A lot of those things have changed this year.

First, the Cowboys have added Dez Bryant. Adding a complimentary receiver doesn't necessarily help or hurt a WR - Fitz put up great numbers with Boldin, and vice versa. But in this case, they already had a complimentary receiver. Witten. Adding Bryant seems more likely to hurt Austin's targets than help them. And while Austin may do better with those targets as a result, he already averaged over 16 YPR. I don't think there's enough room for improvement to assume he's going to continue to improve.

But it's not just Bryant. They've also got Felix back, and a healthier Barber. Felix and Barber give the offense another area to look for playmakers. And that hurts Austin, because last year, the only playmakers the Cowboys had for long stretches of time were Austin and Witten. So Austin may get lost in the shuffle.

There are reasons for concern here - Austin's totally unexpected numbers have to make you suspicious that this was just one of those perfect storm type seasons. To me, I downgrade him a little, and put him closer to 70 receptions, 1100 yards, 8 TDs. Not bad numbers, but also not worthy of a top 20 pick.

To me these things merely come out as washes. Why? Because we never really go back and study past situations to determine why they help in some situations and hurt in others.So having another good WR opposite you can help or hurt. So which is it for Austin? It could mean fewer targets for Austin but it could also mean less attention to him? Why would a DC prefer to get torched by Witten or Bryant instead of Austin? If a rookie Bryant is so talented that he commands more targets than did Roy Williams last year (which is a whole other debate), wouldn't it also occur to opposing DC's that they better keep an eye on this kid? Given his status as the top WR prospect in the draft, their team probably worked him over with a fine toothed comb leading up the draft. And since it took all of two games for DC's to start paying attention to Austin last year, why would anyone think an effective Bryant will roll for 16 games taking targets away from Austin yet not also attract an increasing amount of DC attention? It doesn't make sense. If Bryant does something with his targets, he will get more and more attention, same as Austin did. In fact, given his pedigree, he will probably still be on everyone's radar if he's a game 1 starter. The more hype Bryant gets preseason, I think the more attention he gets on the field. No one is going to see an explosive game from him as a fluke.

So unless someone really goes back and breaks down situations to determine why in the past the addition of another playmaker at WR helps in some situations but hurts in others, I don't get that concerned, particularly when that new WR is a rookie. Unless you think Bryant is so good that he overtakes and surpasses Austin as the #1 this year, as a rookie, I don't downgrade Austin for 2010 because of Bryant's addition.

The same thing goes for F.Jones and the running game. Does a stronger running game mean less passes or does it mean one less safety roaming the secondary? Does it mean more DB's with eyes in the backfield and LB's hesitating to drop back into their zones to see if Felix is getting a short dump-off? It might mean some of all of these at the same time. Which means you really have to net those factors. And, just like with adding a complimentary playmaker at WR, I'm not aware of any study or theory which allows for any predictability when deciding whether or not a particular player's situation will progress, regress or remain stable when you improve the RB talent.

I tend to default to the idea that a rising tide lifts all ships. If F.Jones or D.Bryant can move the chains on a play that last year would have resulted in a 4th down because of the attention Austin was getting from DC's, that simply gives Austin another 3 plays this season in which to get another target.

You have to consider that while Dez Bryant seems to be everything you could want in a WR, he isn't the first guy to come into the league looking like that. Is Dez any better a prospect now than Roy Williams was when he was a rookie? Compare that to the fact that no one has ever done what Austin did last year in terms of emerging. Sure, some things had to line up right for Austin to put up those numbers, but one of those things had to be Austin's talent. You can't seperate out that you need the right guy in the right place at the right time. It isn't just any guy in the right place at the right time. If it didn't take real talent to put up those numbers in that situation, I'd argue that more players would be capable of doing so...and that Austin wouldn't be the sole occupier of that position in history.

Harrison/WayneCarter/Moss

Bruce/Holt

There's room for plenty of catches if the QB is any good.

I missed this when it was posted. I agree that a second receiver can either help or hurt. This isn't a case of "there's a second receiver". There is a third receiver - Witten, Dez Bryant and Miles. And they have the running game back together, and want to use Felix as a playmaker. That's a lot of mouths to feed. Yes, there's plenty of room for two guys to get catches on the same team. I remember one year where Burress and Ward were both rated as top 10 receivers with a QB who wasn't even top 20, and we had this debate ad nauseum. The problem for me with Austin is that I specifically and only believe that Austin blew up like he did last year because he was the only playmaker on the team, and I no longer believe that to be the case. I believe he will still have some very good games and that he will still be a decent WR, I just think his current ADP is ridiculous.

well, which one is it? witten was there last season as well. felix jones hasn't proven he can stay healthy yet, and i'll agree bryant should be good, but austin has good hands, size and speed. i wouldn't be going near hi ADP in redrafts, but in dynasty he has some solid value.

 

[Montana16]

Im looking at Austin simply as the wr1 on one of the best passing offenses in the league. Whats not to love?