MJD vs. Portis (1 Viewer)

[((Morpheus))]

These guys are essentially identical in every ADP I've looked at, but the two appear to be heading in opposite directions from the start of last year:

With the emergence of Betts as an excellent backup / 3rd down back, Portis will likely see a significant drop in his touches per game, even despite his obviously superior talent. Also, we don't know how his collarbone will hold up, and will probably be one of the most closely watched players in the in fantasy football throughout training camp.

MJD, on the other hand, showed flashes of brilliance late last season - both catching passes out of the backfield and between the tackles. And although he will be splitting carries with Fragile Fred, we should expect to see MJD given an expanded role in the Jags offense. In fact, I believe that if Taylor had left for the Giants then MJD would be talked about as a viable top-7 pick heading into the season.

SO what do you guys think? Who will have the better year - MJD or Portis?

 

[Sabertooth]

I think both these stocks are speculative right now and either guy could surprise for better or worse. I am going to try to steer clear of these respective situations. Too much to chance in either.

 

[Banger]

Portis by far.

 

[Blackjacks]

These guys are essentially identical in every ADP I've looked at, but the two appear to be heading in opposite directions from the start of last year:

With the emergence of Betts as an excellent backup / 3rd down back, Portis will likely see a significant drop in his touches per game, even despite his obviously superior talent. Also, we don't know how his collarbone will hold up, and will probably be one of the most closely watched players in the in fantasy football throughout training camp.

MJD, on the other hand, showed flashes of brilliance late last season - both catching passes out of the backfield and between the tackles. And although he will be splitting carries with Fragile Fred, we should expect to see MJD given an expanded role in the Jags offense. In fact, I believe that if Taylor had left for the Giants then MJD would be talked about as a viable top-7 pick heading into the season.

SO what do you guys think? Who will have the better year - MJD or Portis?

I know Portis had problems with his shoulder seperation last year and then the hand and and the knee tendinitious (sp) this offseason but now we have to worry about his collarbone to. :( So basically what your saying is MJD is backing up Freddy T and Portis is the lead back and Portis has more talent...........Nough said

 

[Trey]

My theory with Portis is that he has the ability to be a home run in the 2nd round... no one knows exactly how the touches are going to break down in Washington, but if they were to break 70/30 in Portis favor, you can't tell me that he won't be the steal of this year's draft.

People are pairing players like Sjax or Gore with Portis on the comeback. That could be an incredibly deadly duo.

However, in the same respect, if the carries break closer to 50/50 than Portis does not live up to his draft position and these people that took a chance on Portis will have to suffer through it.

I do think sometimes you need to take chances in order to win an FF championship, and Portis is going to be one of those guys that year that makes or breaks a lot of teams.

 

[DenverBroncos]

Portis in a landslide.

 

[((Morpheus))]

These guys are essentially identical in every ADP I've looked at, but the two appear to be heading in opposite directions from the start of last year:

With the emergence of Betts as an excellent backup / 3rd down back, Portis will likely see a significant drop in his touches per game, even despite his obviously superior talent. Also, we don't know how his collarbone will hold up, and will probably be one of the most closely watched players in the in fantasy football throughout training camp.

MJD, on the other hand, showed flashes of brilliance late last season - both catching passes out of the backfield and between the tackles. And although he will be splitting carries with Fragile Fred, we should expect to see MJD given an expanded role in the Jags offense. In fact, I believe that if Taylor had left for the Giants then MJD would be talked about as a viable top-7 pick heading into the season.

SO what do you guys think? Who will have the better year - MJD or Portis?

I know Portis had problems with his shoulder seperation last year and then the hand and and the knee tendinitious (sp) this offseason but now we have to worry about his collarbone to. So basically what your saying is MJD is backing up Freddy T and Portis is the lead back and Portis has more talent...........Nough said

Jeez, if you hadn't butchered 'tendonitis' I would've felt really dumb. Definitely a Freudian slip... I just broke my collarbone.

 

[TheFanatic]

I'm the biggest MJD supporter out there but I think Portis is going to be money this year. I think last year he had some injury problems and Betts filled in well behind a pretty good line. I think he comes back 100% and Betts doesn't eat into his carries as many people are speculating....

As for who's got the most talent? MJD has done a lot with the limited chances he got last year. Portis has been THE guy in Denver and now Wash. MJD is running behind Taylor and finishes top 10 in his rookie season. I think it's too early to say but I would say the book is still out on who has the most talent. We need to see MJD as a #1 starter for a couple of seasons before we can make a judgment on this....

 

[Jayrod]

Portis in a landslide.

Really?What about dynasty?What about PPR or leagues that reward receiving yds more than rushing?What about leagues that include pts for return yards?Sure, in redraft standard FBG scoring leagues, Portis will probably be worth more this year. But MJD has an edge on Portis in several areas that make him more valuable in many leagues. In fact, I'm not in a league that I actually have Portis ranked higher than MJD because of the questions I listed above.

 

[OCC]

It's crazy how much love Fragile Fred is getting.

 

[Ned]

It's crazy how much love Fragile Fred is getting.

it's crazy how "fragile" still sticks with fred even though he's been not so fragile in years...

 

[gheemony]

I'm going with MJD. I admit it is mostly on a hunch. I liken him to Westbrook and Bush. He has the home run ability to score from anywhere on the field. He is young. He plays behind a good OL. I expect his % of touches to increase. Yes, his productivity per touch will go down, but he'll still be productive. I think his upside is Westbrook and his downside is a little below Reggie Bush. If he weren't 5' 8", he would have been a first round pick. I do own him (just traded for him).

Portis has one me numerous championships, so it's hard to not like him. But I don't like his situation. I think Betts was the more efficient runner last year. I think he is a better fit for the team. Given Portis' unfortunate injuries - he seems to get nicked up - I think the OC will split carries more and keep both Betts and and Portis fresh. It's starting to sound a lot like Taylor/MJD. But MJD is the goal-line back and the beneficiary of third-down check-down passes that don't help the team, but add 10-15 yards to your fantasy totals. I think Portis will not get the goal-line carries.

It will be close, but based on age, based on injury risks (very moderate risk of Portis getting hurt and of Taylor getting hurt), and based on verstality, I like MJD. I like MJD's upside. I'd rather give up on a player one year too early than one year too late, and I think Portis has some factors leaning against him. MJD may backslide this year, but I think he really blossoms in the coming years (key if in dynasty/keeper leagues).

I wouldn't quibble with anyone that chose Portis instead.

 

[CA_7]

Interesting that if you projected the 7 games that Portis was 100% he would have ended up with over 1500 total yards and 16 TDs in 2006. He should get 75+% of the looks in WAS were JAX coaches have already said MJD is most effective getting 10-15 looks per game. With Fred in the picture, I am going Portis. Seems like MJD hit too many home runs to count on that again.

 

[duaneok66]

easy call . . .

Portis . . .

 

[Blackjacks]

These guys are essentially identical in every ADP I've looked at, but the two appear to be heading in opposite directions from the start of last year:

With the emergence of Betts as an excellent backup / 3rd down back, Portis will likely see a significant drop in his touches per game, even despite his obviously superior talent. Also, we don't know how his collarbone will hold up, and will probably be one of the most closely watched players in the in fantasy football throughout training camp.

MJD, on the other hand, showed flashes of brilliance late last season - both catching passes out of the backfield and between the tackles. And although he will be splitting carries with Fragile Fred, we should expect to see MJD given an expanded role in the Jags offense. In fact, I believe that if Taylor had left for the Giants then MJD would be talked about as a viable top-7 pick heading into the season.

SO what do you guys think? Who will have the better year - MJD or Portis?

I know Portis had problems with his shoulder seperation last year and then the hand and and the knee tendinitious (sp) this offseason but now we have to worry about his collarbone to. So basically what your saying is MJD is backing up Freddy T and Portis is the lead back and Portis has more talent...........Nough said

Jeez, if you hadn't butchered 'tendonitis' I would've felt really dumb. Definitely a Freudian slip... I just broke my collarbone.

I think (sp) was me admitting I spelled it wrong.

 

[Banger]

Interesting that if you projected the 7 games that Portis was 100% he would have ended up with over 1500 total yards and 16 TDs in 2006. He should get 75+% of the looks in WAS were JAX coaches have already said MJD is most effective getting 10-15 looks per game. With Fred in the picture, I am going Portis. Seems like MJD hit to many home runs to count on that again.

Portis is much better than Betts and although Betts filled in admirably when Portis was hurt the coach's are going to put the back that gives the team the best chance to win the game and that's Clinton. MJD had a dream season last year where everything seemed to go right.

 

[On The Rocks]

Excellent stuff in this thread!

In 10 team leagues I have seen Portis available at #17 and 18 in mocks I participated in recently. In one mock he was there at the turn 20/21. I was beginning to think there is somethnig to this Betts RBBC situation. Now I am not so sure.

One question I have for you guys that are real high on Portis is there any concern about the loss of Dockery?

 

[Ghost Rider]

I had MJD last year, and he was awesome, but I don't see him scoring as much this year. I could see his TDs falling to around the 6-8 area, as teams will game-plan more for him this year than they did last year. I think he will get more touches and yards, though.

 

[Blackjacks]

Interesting that if you projected the 7 games that Portis was 100% he would have ended up with over 1500 total yards and 16 TDs in 2006. He should get 75+% of the looks in WAS were JAX coaches have already said MJD is most effective getting 10-15 looks per game. With Fred in the picture, I am going Portis. Seems like MJD hit to many home runs to count on that again.

Portis is much better than Betts and although Betts filled in admirably when Portis was hurt the coach's are going to put the back that gives the team the best chance to win the game and that's Clinton. MJD had a dream season last year where everything seemed to go right.

While I like Portis more this year anyone that said they liked MJD I couldn't call them morons for it. MJD is a very talented rb and I feel in a year or 2 when he gets the ball more he will be awesome. I think some people might be comparing him to some higher end talents right now like Bush and Portis (IMO 2 of the more talent rb's in the league) and that isn't fair. You put his skills up against backs like Caddy, T. Jones, Benson or Ronnie Brown and I think you'll see a better MJD following. Your trying to compare him with some of the best and that just isn't fair. When you put him back closer to the middle teen's of backs in talent he would shine alot more.Just my 2 cents

 

[Blackjacks]

Excellent stuff in this thread! In 10 team leagues I have seen Portis available at #17 and 18 in mocks I participated in recently. In one mock he was there at the turn 20/21. I was beginning to think there is somethnig to this Betts RBBC situation. Now I am not so sure.One question I have for you guys that are real high on Portis is there any concern about the loss of Dockery?

Whenever a successful Oline losses a good guard there will be concerns but with the success of Saunders in the past I have to look on the positive side of things.They still have a pretty good line but it would probably be better with Dockery still there.I still feel very confident in them.

 

[seatownfavorite]

Portis had 7 Tds on 144 total touches last year and has been a stud since pretty much day one in the NFL.

Betts had 5 total TDs on 298 touches last year, he is a career backup.

MJD isn't even projected as the starter and Greg Jones should be coming back for some goaline work.

I would take Portis easy in this one.

 

[On The Rocks]

Jones should be coming back for some goaline work.

I am a little tired of hearing this. Are there any links that support this?The guy has some pretty serious injuries to come back from. Isn't there just as much a chance he doesn't even make it through camp and gets released?

 

[Routilla]

I like the JAX schedule more than the WAS schedule. That being said I think Portis runs into a buzz saw again this year. The defense will not stop their opponents enough to allow Portis to grind out the clock in the 2nd half. Playing from behind will not help Portis one bit. MJD on the other hand will get carries regardless and he will help grind out the clock against weaker opponents. And if JAX is behind then he will be in there in passing situations as well. Less risk with MJD IMO.

 

[freeannyong]

"Less risk with MJD IMO."



Less risk with a guy who will only get 10 touches a game? Come on now.

 

[Banger]

Interesting that if you projected the 7 games that Portis was 100% he would have ended up with over 1500 total yards and 16 TDs in 2006. He should get 75+% of the looks in WAS were JAX coaches have already said MJD is most effective getting 10-15 looks per game. With Fred in the picture, I am going Portis. Seems like MJD hit to many home runs to count on that again.

Portis is much better than Betts and although Betts filled in admirably when Portis was hurt the coach's are going to put the back that gives the team the best chance to win the game and that's Clinton. MJD had a dream season last year where everything seemed to go right.

While I like Portis more this year anyone that said they liked MJD I couldn't call them morons for it. MJD is a very talented rb and I feel in a year or 2 when he gets the ball more he will be awesome. I think some people might be comparing him to some higher end talents right now like Bush and Portis (IMO 2 of the more talent rb's in the league) and that isn't fair. You put his skills up against backs like Caddy, T. Jones, Benson or Ronnie Brown and I think you'll see a better MJD following. Your trying to compare him with some of the best and that just isn't fair. When you put him back closer to the middle teen's of backs in talent he would shine alot more.Just my 2 cents

I agree with what you said but the problem is people are equating them and in a lot of mocks I've done MJD has gone before Portis. I agree that MJD is talented but I think we saw the best he is going to do in a two back system last year. If he's the lone guy in the backfield that's a totally different discussion and I'd definitely be talking top 10ish but that's not the case. Betts while filling in for Portis was top 10 last year so there's no reason why Portis won't be in the same range if not better this year. Look at Bett's career #'s prior to last year they are very average. He just was in the right place at the right time.

 

[Blackjacks]

Interesting that if you projected the 7 games that Portis was 100% he would have ended up with over 1500 total yards and 16 TDs in 2006. He should get 75+% of the looks in WAS were JAX coaches have already said MJD is most effective getting 10-15 looks per game. With Fred in the picture, I am going Portis. Seems like MJD hit to many home runs to count on that again.

Portis is much better than Betts and although Betts filled in admirably when Portis was hurt the coach's are going to put the back that gives the team the best chance to win the game and that's Clinton. MJD had a dream season last year where everything seemed to go right.

While I like Portis more this year anyone that said they liked MJD I couldn't call them morons for it. MJD is a very talented rb and I feel in a year or 2 when he gets the ball more he will be awesome. I think some people might be comparing him to some higher end talents right now like Bush and Portis (IMO 2 of the more talent rb's in the league) and that isn't fair. You put his skills up against backs like Caddy, T. Jones, Benson or Ronnie Brown and I think you'll see a better MJD following. Your trying to compare him with some of the best and that just isn't fair. When you put him back closer to the middle teen's of backs in talent he would shine alot more.Just my 2 cents

I agree with what you said but the problem is people are equating them and in a lot of mocks I've done MJD has gone before Portis. I agree that MJD is talented but I think we saw the best he is going to do in a two back system last year. If he's the lone guy in the backfield that's a totally different discussion and I'd definitely be talking top 10ish but that's not the case. Betts while filling in for Portis was top 10 last year so there's no reason why Portis won't be in the same range if not better this year. Look at Bett's career #'s prior to last year they are very average. He just was in the right place at the right time.

completely agree.

 

[mozzy84]

Portis in a landslide.

I agree

 

[Routilla]

"Less risk with MJD IMO." Less risk with a guy who will only get 10 touches a game? Come on now.

I'm basing it off of last year. Portis couldn't finish the season due to injury. Betts stepped in and played admirably. MJD played in a RBBC and showed to clearly be the more productive back. Taylor is not getting any younger. Should MJD take the job for any reason he will put up mad #s and quite possibly great #s like last year even in a RBBC. Even if Portis stays healthy I think WAS has a tougher schedule with a more porous defense than JAX. I don't think Portis will be fed the ball to an extreme even if healthy due to Betts' productivity. We disagree clearly and there is nothing wrong with that.

 

[gheemony]

"Less risk with MJD IMO." Less risk with a guy who will only get 10 touches a game? Come on now.

I'm basing it off of last year. Portis couldn't finish the season due to injury. Betts stepped in and played admirably. MJD played in a RBBC and showed to clearly be the more productive back. Taylor is not getting any younger. Should MJD take the job for any reason he will put up mad #s and quite possibly great #s like last year even in a RBBC. Even if Portis stays healthy I think WAS has a tougher schedule with a more porous defense than JAX. I don't think Portis will be fed the ball to an extreme even if healthy due to Betts' productivity. We disagree clearly and there is nothing wrong with that.

The coaches in WAS have a reason to limit Portis' carries while the coaches in JAX have a reason to increase MJD's carries. WAS can't afford to have Portis get hurt again. And the WAS fans will scream for them to use Betts based on his performance last season. In JAX, the coaching staff are trying to save their jobs. If MJD is the answer, he'll see the ball more. To me the trend is more carries for MJD and fewer for Portis.

 

[Tillmanisahero]

Portis by far.

Right on

 

[Dexter Manley]

I like the JAX schedule more than the WAS schedule. That being said I think Portis runs into a buzz saw again this year. The defense will not stop their opponents enough to allow Portis to grind out the clock in the 2nd half. Playing from behind will not help Portis one bit. MJD on the other hand will get carries regardless and he will help grind out the clock against weaker opponents. And if JAX is behind then he will be in there in passing situations as well. Less risk with MJD IMO.

The Skins defense this year will look alot more like the 2005 versions than the 2006 version, unless there is an avalanche of injuries. They've seriously upgraded their secondary and lb core, and the dline will be much better just being healthy, along with the continued development of 2nd year DTs Golston and Montgomery.In a redraft, I think Portis is an absolute no brainer. People forget this guy was a consensus top 4 rated player overall before the injury last year.

 

[((Morpheus))]

"Less risk with MJD IMO." Less risk with a guy who will only get 10 touches a game? Come on now.

I'm basing it off of last year. Portis couldn't finish the season due to injury. Betts stepped in and played admirably. MJD played in a RBBC and showed to clearly be the more productive back. Taylor is not getting any younger. Should MJD take the job for any reason he will put up mad #s and quite possibly great #s like last year even in a RBBC. Even if Portis stays healthy I think WAS has a tougher schedule with a more porous defense than JAX. I don't think Portis will be fed the ball to an extreme even if healthy due to Betts' productivity. We disagree clearly and there is nothing wrong with that.

The coaches in WAS have a reason to limit Portis' carries while the coaches in JAX have a reason to increase MJD's carries. WAS can't afford to have Portis get hurt again. And the WAS fans will scream for them to use Betts based on his performance last season. In JAX, the coaching staff are trying to save their jobs. If MJD is the answer, he'll see the ball more. To me the trend is more carries for MJD and fewer for Portis.

Yes, obviously. This is precisely the reason I made the topic. Now pick a side.

 

[gheemony]

"Less risk with MJD IMO." Less risk with a guy who will only get 10 touches a game? Come on now.

I'm basing it off of last year. Portis couldn't finish the season due to injury. Betts stepped in and played admirably. MJD played in a RBBC and showed to clearly be the more productive back. Taylor is not getting any younger. Should MJD take the job for any reason he will put up mad #s and quite possibly great #s like last year even in a RBBC. Even if Portis stays healthy I think WAS has a tougher schedule with a more porous defense than JAX. I don't think Portis will be fed the ball to an extreme even if healthy due to Betts' productivity. We disagree clearly and there is nothing wrong with that.

The coaches in WAS have a reason to limit Portis' carries while the coaches in JAX have a reason to increase MJD's carries. WAS can't afford to have Portis get hurt again. And the WAS fans will scream for them to use Betts based on his performance last season. In JAX, the coaching staff are trying to save their jobs. If MJD is the answer, he'll see the ball more. To me the trend is more carries for MJD and fewer for Portis.

Yes, obviously. This is precisely the reason I made the topic. Now pick a side.

I did many posts ago - MJD.

 

[cstu]

It's crazy how much love Fragile Fred is getting.

It's crazy how much love Betts is getting.Where was the love prior to 2006? He had a career year, it happens.

 

[Sultans]

These guys are essentially identical in every ADP I've looked at, but the two appear to be heading in opposite directions from the start of last year:

With the emergence of Betts as an excellent backup / 3rd down back, Portis will likely see a significant drop in his touches per game, even despite his obviously superior talent. Also, we don't know how his collarbone will hold up, and will probably be one of the most closely watched players in the in fantasy football throughout training camp.

MJD, on the other hand, showed flashes of brilliance late last season - both catching passes out of the backfield and between the tackles. And although he will be splitting carries with Fragile Fred, we should expect to see MJD given an expanded role in the Jags offense. In fact, I believe that if Taylor had left for the Giants then MJD would be talked about as a viable top-7 pick heading into the season.

SO what do you guys think? Who will have the better year - MJD or Portis?

I know Portis had problems with his shoulder seperation last year and then the hand and and the knee tendinitious (sp) this offseason but now we have to worry about his collarbone to. So basically what your saying is MJD is backing up Freddy T and Portis is the lead back and Portis has more talent...........Nough said

Portis has more opportunity yes, More Talent? What the heck are you talking about. MJD is stronger, faster, better hands. Should I go on. Portis is a waste pick. I would much rather take a Stud Wide in the 2nd round then be stuck with this has been, Did I mention the Redskins are a joke too.

 

[TheFanatic]

"Less risk with MJD IMO." Less risk with a guy who will only get 10 touches a game? Come on now.

I'm basing it off of last year. Portis couldn't finish the season due to injury. Betts stepped in and played admirably. MJD played in a RBBC and showed to clearly be the more productive back. Taylor is not getting any younger. Should MJD take the job for any reason he will put up mad #s and quite possibly great #s like last year even in a RBBC. Even if Portis stays healthy I think WAS has a tougher schedule with a more porous defense than JAX. I don't think Portis will be fed the ball to an extreme even if healthy due to Betts' productivity. We disagree clearly and there is nothing wrong with that.

I think the only way MJD outperforms Portis this year if Portis is completely healthy is if Fred Taylor isn't. Fred has been healthy for something like 3 seasons in a row and is getting starter money. The 1-2 punch of Taylor and MJD was pretty effective last year. I do see them changing it a bit and giving MJD more touches per game, particularly as the season goes on, but I still think that Portis should outscore MJD. All the hype for Betts is comical. The guy fell into a great situation. It wasn't Priest going from Baltimore to KC, but it's similar. Betts was running behind a great line and Portis will get that chance this year, if healthy. BTW, I do not own Portis in any league, but I do own MJD in my main league. Now if you want to argue who is better between MJD and Bush I will go all day long with MJD. But I think Portis is a steal in the late second of a redraft....

 

[isiahcleaves]

This is copied from a post I made on a different site praising MJD...

Do you realize that he had around 1350 combined yards in his last 14 games (the 1st 2... he hardly played)?

Do you realize he did this only touching the ball (on average over those 14 games) 15 times per contest?

If you were on the coaching staff this offseason and evaluating your team... wouldn't those #'s scream something like "we need to get this guy more touches" at you?

Again... I agree with those that say his TD production was likely somewhat of a fluke and should see a decline this year (if Greg Jones is a factor at all). But what you need to keep in mind is that Fred Taylor does not score TD's or catch passes anymore.

Over the last 3 seasons, Taylor has averaged 4 TD's and only 24 catches. At his age, I don't see either of those statistics significantly improving.

In conclusion... assuming he averages the same # of touches per game (12 rushes and 3 catches) as last season (which is ridiculous... he should get more) and that his rushing average drops to around 5 yards per carry (which is more reasonable than his gawdy 5.7 yds per carry)... if you prorate that out over 16 games.

12 rushes times 5 yards per carry = 60 yds per game times 16 games = 960 yards rushing

3 catches times 10 yards per catch = 30 yds per game times 16 games = 480 yards receiving

Total = 1440 combined yards.

I don't see the downside to these yardage totals.

Now... could Greg Jones vulture some TD's? Sure... he could.... so I'd cut the TD production with MJD by a third. Give him 10 TD's.

I'm interested to see what all of these people choosing Portis over MJD predict for Clinton.

Again.... Safe (ridiculously safe actually) predictions for MJD

1440 combined yards. 48 catches. 10 TD's.

Would Clinton Portis circa 2005 beat those #'s? Let's take a look. His stats were

1732 combined yards. 30 catches. 13 TD's.

The answer... Portis of 2005 beats my projections for MJD this year.

The questions you have to ask yourself are this.....

1. Do you think Portis of 2007 will exceed Portis of 2005? My answer... hell no. The Skins are not the Denver Broncos of the early part of this decade... despite having Al Saunders. Portis is 2 years and a major knee surgery older, and has some competition (albeit limited... I agree) for carries.

2. Do you think Portis will repeat the #'s of 2 years ago (with a knee surgery and a proven #2 RB in Betts)? It's possible... but not likely.

3. What do I predict for Portis this year? Well... I'd go with...

1500 combined yards (1250 rushing, 250 receiving), 35 catches, and 11 TD's.

Those #'s slightly beat MJD in my predictions.... but I'd still select MJD over Portis any day.

Why? Upside!

The only way MJD doesn't get the #'s I have posted for him are...

A. If he gets hurt

B. If the coaching staff is completely moronic

With the #'s I posted for Portis... I don't see the major upside.

Tell me where I'm wrong on either set of predictions.

 

[isiahcleaves]

Thought I'd add this....

I picked MJD at 2.4 in a 12 team redraft. 14 RB's had already been taken. Guys available included Portis, Edge, Thomas Jones, Jacobs, and Benson. None of those guys have the upside of MJD, and all of them have their own serious questions... or they'd be consistently getting drafted higher.

The bottom line is this... Jax is a top 3 running team. I think most people would agree with that. If MJD gets 40 - 50% of the teams rushing touches over the course of the entire year, takes a more active role in the passing game (see my comments on Fred Taylor in the post above), and gets two thirds of the TD's he had last year, he'll put up statistics that will justify a selection that high.

After what he did during his rookie season, I don't see how he doesn't do at least that.

His ceiling? Well... if Freddie gets hurt or becomes lacksidasical now that he has his contract, or MJD just dominates during camp... forcing Del Rio's hand to play him more... he'll end up being worth a mid 1st round pick.

 

[bcr8f]

I hope so.

I hope Portis drops to 3.03 like in a PPR virtual mock I just did.

 

[streamkeeper]

I had this choice in a keeper league and traded away Portis. I can understand the skepticism and the less than perfect RB situation in Jax for FFB, but..... Having watched MJD play, I am a believer.

There is not a coaching staff in the world that would not review last year and find a way to get him his touches.

He can run inside.....certainly better than Mr Bush.

His OL is young and solid.

He is a home run threat.

Portis will have a fine year, but MJD has the upside for here on out.

 

[isiahcleaves]

I highly doubt Portis lasts that long.

In the redraft league I'm in, he went 2.9. (17th RB taken)

When I made my selection of MJD (2.4... 15th RB taken) ... Portis was the only other guy I even considered. (Didn't want to start the WR run).

 

[fatness]

One question I have for you guys that are real high on Portis is there any concern about the loss of Dockery?

Yes.Todd Wade has never played a down at guard, and he's projected as the starter right now.

 

[fatness]

And the WAS fans will scream for them to use Betts based on his performance last season.

I don't think so. Betts is liked and respected by Redskin fans. But Portis is loved.

 

[bcr8f]

And the WAS fans will scream for them to use Betts based on his performance last season.

I don't think so. Betts is liked and respected by Redskin fans. But Portis is loved.

Your Holdman directtions(in sig) no longer work.

 

[Ultimate Browns Fan]

In a current WCOFF mock, I have the first pick..Here is my roster so far....

1.1 Ladainian Tomlinson RB

2.12. Clinton Portis RB

3.1. Thomas Jones RB

4.12. Reggie Brown WR

5.1. Laverneus Coles WR

6.12. Vincent Jackson WR

7.1. Santonio Holmes WR

I might haver reached for these last two WRs..I think both came on BIG time the second half of last season, and will have huge seasons. I may have reached for them but when you take 3 RBs with your first 3 picks in a WCOFF format, the WRs start to thin out.somewhat in round 4.. IN a PPR, is Jones a mistake in round 3?

OPINIONS PLEASE....

 

[Banger]

In a current WCOFF mock, I have the first pick..Here is my roster so far....1.1 Ladainian Tomlinson RB2.12. Clinton Portis RB3.1. Thomas Jones RB4.12. Reggie Brown WR5.1. Laverneus Coles WR6.12. Vincent Jackson WR7.1. Santonio Holmes WRI might haver reached for these last two WRs..I think both came on BIG time the second half of last season, and will have huge seasons. I may have reached for them but when you take 3 RBs with your first 3 picks in a WCOFF format, the WRs start to thin out.somewhat in round 4.. IN a PPR, is Jones a mistake in round 3?OPINIONS PLEASE....

Grab Kitna and you'll have a nice roster

 

[fatness]

Your Holdman directtions(in sig) no longer work.

Hey, thanks. I'll have to find new ridiculousness to put there instead.

 

[CA_7]

"Less risk with MJD IMO."



Less risk with a guy who will only get 10 touches a game? Come on now.

I'm basing it off of last year. Portis couldn't finish the season due to injury. Betts stepped in and played admirably. MJD played in a RBBC and showed to clearly be the more productive back. Taylor is not getting any younger. Should MJD take the job for any reason he will put up mad #s and quite possibly great #s like last year even in a RBBC. Even if Portis stays healthy I think WAS has a tougher schedule with a more porous defense than JAX. I don't think Portis will be fed the ball to an extreme even if healthy due to Betts' productivity. We disagree clearly and there is nothing wrong with that.

The coaches in WAS have a reason to limit Portis' carries while the coaches in JAX have a reason to increase MJD's carries. WAS can't afford to have Portis get hurt again. And the WAS fans will scream for them to use Betts based on his performance last season. In JAX, the coaching staff are trying to save their jobs. If MJD is the answer, he'll see the ball more. To me the trend is more carries for MJD and fewer for Portis.

Don't interpret this as MJD bashing, I think he is extremely talented and fun to watch, am just questioning how JAX will use him.Just because MJD is the most talented and most explosive back in Jacksonville doesn't necessarily mean he will get more carries. Some factors contributing to this theory:

- Fred Taylor averaged 5.0 ypc and the combo of both players worked very well; JAX was #3 rushing offense in NFL behind only ATL (Vick) and SD (LT)

- MJD was able to play special teams and was a huge help there (3rd best kick return avg. in league)

- MJD's ypc dropped almost a full yard when he was the regular starter, I saw a quote recently that JAX coaches said MJD was most effective with 10-15 touches per game, wish I could find it again...

JAX as a team can' afford to give MJD more rushing carries and possibly lose a valuable change of pace back and special teams player. Was also interesting to note how much MJD popped-up on the injury report after getting more carries. Keep in mind, this guy was getting very little activity early in the season so you can't blame rookie burn-out.

11/30 - probable (thigh)

12/13 - probable (hamstring)

12/18 - x-rays for "jammed knee"

12/27 - probable (knee)

http://rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/p...NFL&id=3596

 

[Despyzer]

It's crazy how much love Fragile Fred is getting.

it's crazy how "fragile" still sticks with fred even though he's been not so fragile in years...

He has missed a half season's worth of games in just the last three years. That's a big improvement over the stretch he had in '99 -'01, but it hardly is enough to shake the reputation of being fragile.

 

[Blackjacks]

These guys are essentially identical in every ADP I've looked at, but the two appear to be heading in opposite directions from the start of last year:

With the emergence of Betts as an excellent backup / 3rd down back, Portis will likely see a significant drop in his touches per game, even despite his obviously superior talent. Also, we don't know how his collarbone will hold up, and will probably be one of the most closely watched players in the in fantasy football throughout training camp.

MJD, on the other hand, showed flashes of brilliance late last season - both catching passes out of the backfield and between the tackles. And although he will be splitting carries with Fragile Fred, we should expect to see MJD given an expanded role in the Jags offense. In fact, I believe that if Taylor had left for the Giants then MJD would be talked about as a viable top-7 pick heading into the season.

SO what do you guys think? Who will have the better year - MJD or Portis?

I know Portis had problems with his shoulder seperation last year and then the hand and and the knee tendinitious (sp) this offseason but now we have to worry about his collarbone to. So basically what your saying is MJD is backing up Freddy T and Portis is the lead back and Portis has more talent...........Nough said

Portis has more opportunity yes, More Talent? What the heck are you talking about. MJD is stronger, faster, better hands. Should I go on. Portis is a waste pick. I would much rather take a Stud Wide in the 2nd round then be stuck with this has been, Did I mention the Redskins are a joke too.

Portis is a much more talented back than MJD will ever dream to be.