MoJo Drew could be the biggest steal of 08 (1 Viewer)

[VICK-tory]

I read this from draftsharks and it got me thinking, dude if Taylor pulls a quad or something (he's due for another inj.) then Maurice Jones Drew will be a fantasy force-

** Do you remember last season when Maurice Jones-Drew limped to the locker room in week 7 on Monday night vs. the Colts? He sustained a deep bone bruise in the left knee. Last week someone close to the Jags told Draft Sharks that MJD had "a busted blood vessel and swelling inside the bone"...yet he played 6 days later at Tampa Bay. With no practice and "two different knee injections" he busted off a 21-yard run on his first carry. Later he caught a swing pass and took it 15 yards to the 6-inch line, setting up a LaBrandon Toefield touchdown. Our source also said Jones-Drew pleaded and begged to return kicks like he normally does but Jack Del Rio wouldn't let him that day. It's stuff like this that wins us over. Lil' man is old school.

http://www.draftsharks.com/members/shark_bites.aspx

 

[streamkeeper]

Waiting on Switz.....

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

You're really going out on a limb there.

 

[Cowtippers]

He may hit the wall, BUT only after he passes J. Brown................or so he says

Fred Taylor indicated to Jaguars.com that he'll consider retiring after he passes Jim Brown on the all-time rushing yards list.

"I’m just trying to catch Jim Brown and then we’ll close the curtains," he said. Taylor, who's signed through 2010, needs 1,597 yards to pass Brown. It'll take quite an effort to do it in 2007 while sharing snaps with Maurice Drew.

Source: jaguars.com

 

[Football Jones]

MJD's points-per-touch (FF) in his two seasons are staggering. I haven't looked it up, but I doubt anybody is even close (with as many touches). Sooner or later, he'll be the #1 RB in FF.

 

[jurb26]

MJD's points-per-touch (FF) in his two seasons are staggering. I haven't looked it up, but I doubt anybody is even close (with as many touches). Sooner or later, he'll be the #1 RB in FF.

With more touches, my guess is MJD will see a regression back to the mean in points-per-touch. Still, he will be a stud if used as a full time RB. He will be top 15 no matter what.

 

[CD Dragon]

AHHH

shades of Kevan Barlow.

deja vu

MJD has already lost a full yd per carry from year one to 2 with almost exactly the same amount of carries. the home runs will come less often and the slide will begin

 

[jurb26]

AHHHshades of Kevan Barlow.deja vuMJD has already lost a full yd per carry from year one to 2 with almost exactly the same amount of carries. the home runs will come less often and the slide will begin

Yeah, what a slacker. Only averaged 4.6 per carry last year....

 

[travdogg]

What defines a steal? In a redraft MJD will likely go in the 10-15 RB range. In a dynasty he's valued as a top-10 guy pretty universally.

 

[CD Dragon]

AHHHshades of Kevan Barlow.deja vuMJD has already lost a full yd per carry from year one to 2 with almost exactly the same amount of carries. the home runs will come less often and the slide will begin

Yeah, what a slacker. Only averaged 4.6 per carry last year....

yup and 4.6 in a complimentory role defines stud. point being barlow was in a complimentary role and everyone here had mad love for the guy. "if only hearst would move on"gets a full workload and he's gone in 3 yrs.its quite telling that a guy drops a full 1.1 in ypc and has 5 or so TDs less.i like trends that are moving up , not back.here are some other "studs" with 4.6 or better, they all became uber studs didnt they?mike anderson YR- TM-- G RSH- YD- Y/R TD 2000 DEN 14 297 1487 5.0 15 barlow YR--- TM G RSH YD --Y/R TD 2003 SF 16 201 1024 5.1 6 chris brownYR-- TM --G RSH YD-- Y/R TD 2004 TEN 11 220 1067 4.8 6 kevin jonesYR-- TM --G -RSH YD -Y/R TD 2004 DET 15 241 1133 4.7 5 but here is a guy that everyone thought was done 2-3 yrs agoYR---TM-- G RSH -YD -Y/R TD 2000 BAL 16 309 1364 4.4 6 2002 BAL 16 308 1327 4.3 6 2003 BAL 16 387 2066 5.3 14 2004 BAL 12 235 1006 4.3 7 take a guess. give me production over a handful of wishes and maybes any day

 

[Moniker]

Why is Taylor due for another injury?

MJD is terrible.

Anyone who thought Lewis was done is a fool. The guy is still young and was facing 9 man defensive fronts with no help and no other threats other than Boller being a threat to turn the ball over...

 

[KSkid]

Why is Taylor due for another injury?MJD is terrible.Anyone who thought Lewis was done is a fool. The guy is still young and was facing 9 man defensive fronts with no help and no other threats other than Boller being a threat to turn the ball over...

I don't see how you can call MJD terrible. I love it when guys say something like that with nothing to back it up. How did Lewis become a part of this? The Taylor injury thing? Taylor's injury history is a lot more extensive than Lewis'. I don't necessarily think that he is due for an injury, but I don't think the comparison is valid.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

AHHHshades of Kevan Barlow.deja vuMJD has already lost a full yd per carry from year one to 2 with almost exactly the same amount of carries. the home runs will come less often and the slide will begin

 

[King of the Wolfies]

Freddie looked like a kid out there last year. I've owned him at some point every year for the past 5, and I swear I've never seen him look this good. I cant remember the game, but I remember he had one long run and he made every one else on the field look like they were walking.

 

[Mikey16x]

MJD is the future of the backfield in jax... has the speed, power... and if you ask merriman... he protects his QB... and he's always a home run threat... what more do you want in a running back??

 

[Polyethylene Bag]

AHHHshades of Kevan Barlow.deja vuMJD has already lost a full yd per carry from year one to 2 with almost exactly the same amount of carries. the home runs will come less often and the slide will begin

Yeah, what a slacker. Only averaged 4.6 per carry last year....

yup and 4.6 in a complimentory role defines stud. point being barlow was in a complimentary role and everyone here had mad love for the guy. "if only hearst would move on"gets a full workload and he's gone in 3 yrs.its quite telling that a guy drops a full 1.1 in ypc and has 5 or so TDs less.i like trends that are moving up , not back.here are some other "studs" with 4.6 or better, they all became uber studs didnt they?mike anderson YR- TM-- G RSH- YD- Y/R TD 2000 DEN 14 297 1487 5.0 15 barlow YR--- TM G RSH YD --Y/R TD 2003 SF 16 201 1024 5.1 6 chris brownYR-- TM --G RSH YD-- Y/R TD 2004 TEN 11 220 1067 4.8 6 kevin jonesYR-- TM --G -RSH YD -Y/R TD 2004 DET 15 241 1133 4.7 5 but here is a guy that everyone thought was done 2-3 yrs agoYR---TM-- G RSH -YD -Y/R TD 2000 BAL 16 309 1364 4.4 6 2002 BAL 16 308 1327 4.3 6 2003 BAL 16 387 2066 5.3 14 2004 BAL 12 235 1006 4.3 7 take a guess. give me production over a handful of wishes and maybes any day

You should try watching the game sometime.

 

[Gary Davenport]

I read this from draftsharks and it got me thinking, dude if Taylor pulls a quad or something (he's due for another inj.) then Maurice Jones Drew will be a fantasy force-

** Do you remember last season when Maurice Jones-Drew limped to the locker room in week 7 on Monday night vs. the Colts? He sustained a deep bone bruise in the left knee. Last week someone close to the Jags told Draft Sharks that MJD had "a busted blood vessel and swelling inside the bone"...yet he played 6 days later at Tampa Bay. With no practice and "two different knee injections" he busted off a 21-yard run on his first carry. Later he caught a swing pass and took it 15 yards to the 6-inch line, setting up a LaBrandon Toefield touchdown. Our source also said Jones-Drew pleaded and begged to return kicks like he normally does but Jack Del Rio wouldn't let him that day. It's stuff like this that wins us over. Lil' man is old school.

http://www.draftsharks.com/members/shark_bites.aspx

How is Taylor "due" for an injury? The whole "Fragile Freddy" thing is a myth. In 10 Years he's played in at least 12 games 7 times, and rushed for 1,000+ each of those 7 years. His durability is no more of a question than it is with just about any Running Back.Also, it's worth mentioning that for as good as Jones-Drew's YPC was in 2007, Taylor's was even better (5.6).

 

[CalBear]

How is Taylor "due" for an injury? The whole "Fragile Freddy" thing is a myth. In 10 Years he's played in at least 12 games 7 times, and rushed for 1,000+ each of those 7 years. His durability is no more of a question than it is with just about any Running Back.

Taylor's durability is no more of a question than it is with just about any 32 year old running back. In the Super Bowl era, there have only been 18 RB seasons in history where a 32-year-old had 200+ carries, as Taylor has the past two years. Only 4 of those RBs had a ypc of 4.0 or greater; the best was Marcus Allen with 4.3 ypc. In fact, of those four seasons, Allen has two of them, Walter Payton has one; the only non-HOF RB to manage 4.0 ypc at age 32 was Mike Anderson in 2005. It's possible that Taylor will have a season similar to 2007, but I would bet against it.

 

[Wadsworth]

How is Taylor "due" for an injury? The whole "Fragile Freddy" thing is a myth. In 10 Years he's played in at least 12 games 7 times, and rushed for 1,000+ each of those 7 years. His durability is no more of a question than it is with just about any Running Back.

Taylor's durability is no more of a question than it is with just about any 32 year old running back. In the Super Bowl era, there have only been 18 RB seasons in history where a 32-year-old had 200+ carries, as Taylor has the past two years. Only 4 of those RBs had a ypc of 4.0 or greater; the best was Marcus Allen with 4.3 ypc. In fact, of those four seasons, Allen has two of them, Walter Payton has one; the only non-HOF RB to manage 4.0 ypc at age 32 was Mike Anderson in 2005. It's possible that Taylor will have a season similar to 2007, but I would bet against it.

Okay, fair enough. Where would you project Fred Taylor's 2008 season? While the age 32+ RB stats are nice, very few of those RBs were coming off a 5.6 per carry, 1,000+ season.

 

[Gary Davenport]

How is Taylor "due" for an injury? The whole "Fragile Freddy" thing is a myth. In 10 Years he's played in at least 12 games 7 times, and rushed for 1,000+ each of those 7 years. His durability is no more of a question than it is with just about any Running Back.

Taylor's durability is no more of a question than it is with just about any 32 year old running back. In the Super Bowl era, there have only been 18 RB seasons in history where a 32-year-old had 200+ carries, as Taylor has the past two years. Only 4 of those RBs had a ypc of 4.0 or greater; the best was Marcus Allen with 4.3 ypc. In fact, of those four seasons, Allen has two of them, Walter Payton has one; the only non-HOF RB to manage 4.0 ypc at age 32 was Mike Anderson in 2005. It's possible that Taylor will have a season similar to 2007, but I would bet against it.

Okay, fair enough. Where would you project Fred Taylor's 2008 season? While the age 32+ RB stats are nice, very few of those RBs were coming off a 5.6 per carry, 1,000+ season.

Not to mention none of them had a back of Jones-Drew's caliber to share the workload (and beating).MJD is going to get a shot to be "the guy" in Jacksonville, but Taylor didn't show me anything in 2006 or 2007 to lead me to believe that 2008 will be the year that happens. The wheels ain't fallen off just yet.

I'm not saying Taylor will back up '07, but I said the same thing about '06, and ended up with Fregg on my face.

Unless he gets hurt my guess is you'll see very similar numbers again...220 carries or so, 1,000-1,200 yards, and a fistful of TDs. If it ain't broke don't fix it.

As to the whole "Non-HOF" thing, where Freddie's concerned I reckon that's a discussion for another thread, because by the time he hangs 'em up he's at least going to merit consideration for induction.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Until Taylor shows any signs of slowing down (the guy still has the moves on moves you see in a 20-something kid and showed on a couple occasions he can outrun anyone), I assume we'll see another 200+ carry season.

Jones-Drew will a be solid again, he just won't be consistent enough to be anything other than a RB2.

 

[FantasyTrader]

To me it's all about risk/reward. Considering where you'll have to draft both guys, MJD is the no-brainer. His floor (with a healthy, productive Taylor) is still that of an average #2 fantasy back. If '08 just so happens to be the year the wheels fall off for Freddy T, then the sky is the limit for Jones-Drew.

Taylor won't outproduce his ADP but his floor is in the cellar.

 

[Crazy8s]

Freddie looked like a kid out there last year. I've owned him at some point every year for the past 5, and I swear I've never seen him look this good. I cant remember the game, but I remember he had one long run and he made every one else on the field look like they were walking.

I own both Taylor and Drew and I agree that Taylor looked good and will see the majority of the carries, but to say that taylor looked like a kid out there is wrong in my mind. He needed many breathers out there. If he ran for over 25+ yards, he went right to the sidelines for a long break most of the time.

 

[munchkin]

Freddie looked like a kid out there last year. I've owned him at some point every year for the past 5, and I swear I've never seen him look this good. I cant remember the game, but I remember he had one long run and he made every one else on the field look like they were walking.

I own both Taylor and Drew and I agree that Taylor looked good and will see the majority of the carries, but to say that taylor looked like a kid out there is wrong in my mind. He needed many breathers out there. If he ran for over 25+ yards, he went right to the sidelines for a long break most of the time.

Taylor is a feature back without a doubt, but he won't play forever. As an MJD owner I am hoping that his flashes of greatness turn into steady production when he gets a chance. Whether it's injury or age Taylor will be leaving the game. I think the jury is out on MJD as it is for Michael Turner. we can't be sure how any player in a backup role will produce when they become a starter but I sure like the prospects of MJD and Turner being productive.

 

[jurb26]

Freddie looked like a kid out there last year. I've owned him at some point every year for the past 5, and I swear I've never seen him look this good. I cant remember the game, but I remember he had one long run and he made every one else on the field look like they were walking.

I own both Taylor and Drew and I agree that Taylor looked good and will see the majority of the carries, but to say that taylor looked like a kid out there is wrong in my mind. He needed many breathers out there. If he ran for over 25+ yards, he went right to the sidelines for a long break most of the time.

Taylor is a feature back without a doubt, but he won't play forever. As an MJD owner I am hoping that his flashes of greatness turn into steady production when he gets a chance. Whether it's injury or age Taylor will be leaving the game. I think the jury is out on MJD as it is for Michael Turner. we can't be sure how any player in a backup role will produce when they become a starter but I sure like the prospects of MJD and Turner being productive.

MJD has 333 carries in 2 years never less than 166 in a season. Turner has 228 carries in 4 years never more than 80 in a season. I think there is rather large discrepancy there, no? MJD has had 212 touches and 207 touches vs. Taylor's 254 and 232. Taylor is not a feature back and MJD is not a traditional backup. This is a rather clear RBBC.

 

[Crippler]

And if Taylor was done, Jacksonville would bring in another Taylor as that is the way of the NFL. Drew will always get about the same carries as that is what works for him and for the Jags. I dont see top 5 RB at anytime during his career in the end.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

AHHHshades of Kevan Barlow.deja vuMJD has already lost a full yd per carry from year one to 2 with almost exactly the same amount of carries. the home runs will come less often and the slide will begin

Yeah, what a slacker. Only averaged 4.6 per carry last year....

yup and 4.6 in a complimentory role defines stud. point being barlow was in a complimentary role and everyone here had mad love for the guy. "if only hearst would move on"gets a full workload and he's gone in 3 yrs.its quite telling that a guy drops a full 1.1 in ypc and has 5 or so TDs less.i like trends that are moving up , not back.here are some other "studs" with 4.6 or better, they all became uber studs didnt they?mike anderson YR- TM-- G RSH- YD- Y/R TD 2000 DEN 14 297 1487 5.0 15 barlow YR--- TM G RSH YD --Y/R TD 2003 SF 16 201 1024 5.1 6 chris brownYR-- TM --G RSH YD-- Y/R TD 2004 TEN 11 220 1067 4.8 6 kevin jonesYR-- TM --G -RSH YD -Y/R TD 2004 DET 15 241 1133 4.7 5 but here is a guy that everyone thought was done 2-3 yrs agoYR---TM-- G RSH -YD -Y/R TD 2000 BAL 16 309 1364 4.4 6 2002 BAL 16 308 1327 4.3 6 2003 BAL 16 387 2066 5.3 14 2004 BAL 12 235 1006 4.3 7 take a guess. give me production over a handful of wishes and maybes any day

You should try watching the game sometime.

Anyone seriously comparing MJD to Barlow has obviously never seen either one of them play. Jones-Drew's talent shouldn't be questioned at this point -- he is one of the most dynamic RBs in the NFL. His ability to handle a 300+ touch workload remains to be seen, but he appears to have the frame for it. He is short, but not small by any stretch.

 

[CalBear]

How is Taylor "due" for an injury? The whole "Fragile Freddy" thing is a myth. In 10 Years he's played in at least 12 games 7 times, and rushed for 1,000+ each of those 7 years. His durability is no more of a question than it is with just about any Running Back.

Taylor's durability is no more of a question than it is with just about any 32 year old running back. In the Super Bowl era, there have only been 18 RB seasons in history where a 32-year-old had 200+ carries, as Taylor has the past two years. Only 4 of those RBs had a ypc of 4.0 or greater; the best was Marcus Allen with 4.3 ypc. In fact, of those four seasons, Allen has two of them, Walter Payton has one; the only non-HOF RB to manage 4.0 ypc at age 32 was Mike Anderson in 2005. It's possible that Taylor will have a season similar to 2007, but I would bet against it.

Okay, fair enough. Where would you project Fred Taylor's 2008 season? While the age 32+ RB stats are nice, very few of those RBs were coming off a 5.6 per carry, 1,000+ season.

Actually, you might be surprised. 17 RBs at age 31 have had 200+ carries. 11 of those averaged over 4.0 yards per carry, and three of them averaged over 5.0 yards per carry (James Brooks and Tiki Barber, in addition to Taylor). The sample sizes are small, but if you had to draw a line where most RBs fall off a cliff, age 32 would appear to be it. If I drew a probability curve for Taylor's results, I'd probably have the peak somewhere around 150/700.