Most Likely to FLOP (1 Viewer)

[Smizzy]

Which of these 3 players is most likely to fizzle out after last yr's impact season?

 

[cantrell]

I'd say Jones-Drew is most likely to lay an egg out of the three listed.

 

[pizzatyme]

Gore

Addai

MJD

 

[Wally Cleaver]

Short of injury, I dont see any chance that Addai flops... Zero... Facing 6 men fronts on one of the best offenses in football, I simply just dont see any scenario in which he is anything less than a very good fantasy option. Indy's defense is likely to be significantly downgraded with all their losses which in turn should force the colts to run the ball often to keep the defense off the field... If they get into shootouts that will lead to more scoring chances for Addai who faces absolutely no competition for any time...

In my opinion, he is one of the safest picks in the first round and I currently have him as my #3 rb... Anyone with any reasons why Addai would flop short of injury?

 

[AnonymousBob]

What's your definition of a "flop"? I'm not sure any of them will do as well as last year, does that mean they're a bust? If they're not top 20? 15? 30? I tend to side with running backs that are actually starting for their team.

 

[Prof. Chaos]

GoreAddaiMJD

 

[radballs]

GoreAddaiMJD

I'm a bit confused. Is this in order of flopping or anticipated production?

 

[pizzatyme]

GoreAddaiMJD

I'm a bit confused. Is this in order of flopping or anticipated production?

Could be both! I think Gore has had the most difficulty with previous injuries. Addai loses his Pro Bowl LT. And MJD is not fully out of RBBC.Therefore, I suggest Gore has highest ceiling and chance to fail based on ADP. Addai less, and MJD even less since he is being taken in the 1.12/2.01 range.

 

[pantherclub]

Short of injury, I dont see any chance that Addai flops... Zero... Facing 6 men fronts on one of the best offenses in football, I simply just dont see any scenario in which he is anything less than a very good fantasy option. Indy's defense is likely to be significantly downgraded with all their losses which in turn should force the colts to run the ball often to keep the defense off the field... If they get into shootouts that will lead to more scoring chances for Addai who faces absolutely no competition for any time...In my opinion, he is one of the safest picks in the first round and I currently have him as my #3 rb... Anyone with any reasons why Addai would flop short of injury?

Great post. I have been saying this for a while, I also have Addai at 3 and probably would choose him over LJ at this point.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Short of injury, I dont see any chance that Addai flops... Zero... Facing 6 men fronts on one of the best offenses in football, I simply just dont see any scenario in which he is anything less than a very good fantasy option. Indy's defense is likely to be significantly downgraded with all their losses which in turn should force the colts to run the ball often to keep the defense off the field... If they get into shootouts that will lead to more scoring chances for Addai who faces absolutely no competition for any time...In my opinion, he is one of the safest picks in the first round and I currently have him as my #3 rb... Anyone with any reasons why Addai would flop short of injury?

Great post. I have been saying this for a while, I also have Addai at 3 and probably would choose him over LJ at this point.

Considering Addai has never carried the full load, even in college, there is definitely a chance that he could flop. Add in the retirement of Tarik Glenn and there are some red flags concerning Addai.

 

[switz]

I can't see how Addai flops, barring injury, and you can't predict those.

The same is true with Gore, though he already has a brken hand,

MJD would be relying on scoring a tremendous number of ground TDs again to put up solid numbers which is extremely unlikely. So I would say he has the biggest flop potential. Especially looking at his ADP.

 

[Hagger]

None of the above?

 

[Double_J]

I don't see the downside to Addai. I also don't understand the projections for him as far as receptions. He caught 40 last year and so did Rhodes, yet Addai is only supposed to catch 7-10 more? I'm thinking he gets atleast 60 catches if not more. The ONLY thing that could hurt him is Peyton likes to call his own number in the red zone. Barring injury, he looks about as safe it gets.

 

[djcolts]

I really think those that think Addai will be a top 5 back are underestimating what the Colts think of De De Dorsey. If Dorsey can learn how to pass-protect over the next couple of months, he'll get more playing time that most here think.

 

[tomarken]

I can't see how Addai flops, barring injury, and you can't predict those.The same is true with Gore, though he already has a brken hand,MJD would be relying on scoring a tremendous number of ground TDs again to put up solid numbers which is extremely unlikely. So I would say he has the biggest flop potential. Especially looking at his ADP.

I don't see why everyone thinks MJD needs to score 15 TD's again to have any value. He had almost 1400 yards last year in limited time, and even if you think he can't repeat his TD totals there's no reason to think he can't at least put up the same yardage numbers. To me it seems like his floor is last year's yards with less TD's. But his ceiling is much higher - I am in what appears to be the minority, in that I think he could definitely put up at least 10 TD's again this year, which would make him a solid first-round pick.

 

[Tau837]

I can't see how Addai flops, barring injury, and you can't predict those.The same is true with Gore, though he already has a brken hand,MJD would be relying on scoring a tremendous number of ground TDs again to put up solid numbers which is extremely unlikely. So I would say he has the biggest flop potential. Especially looking at his ADP.

I don't see why everyone thinks MJD needs to score 15 TD's again to have any value. He had almost 1400 yards last year in limited time, and even if you think he can't repeat his TD totals there's no reason to think he can't at least put up the same yardage numbers. To me it seems like his floor is last year's yards with less TD's. But his ceiling is much higher - I am in what appears to be the minority, in that I think he could definitely put up at least 10 TD's again this year, which would make him a solid first-round pick.

Yes there is a reason to think he can't repeat the yardage. He averaged 5.7 ypc and 9.5 ypr. I expect a significant dropoff in both. So he will need significantly more touches to repeat the yardage.As for the TDs, I certainly don't think even 10 is a lock... only 10 RBs had 10 or more last season. The other 9 averaged 332 touches; MJD had 212 touches. Barring injury to Taylor, I don't see MJD with more than 250 touches this year.All that said, I hope other owners in my league are just looking at the yards & TDs MJD had last year and ignoring the rest.

 

[switz]

I can't see how Addai flops, barring injury, and you can't predict those.The same is true with Gore, though he already has a brken hand,MJD would be relying on scoring a tremendous number of ground TDs again to put up solid numbers which is extremely unlikely. So I would say he has the biggest flop potential. Especially looking at his ADP.

I don't see why everyone thinks MJD needs to score 15 TD's again to have any value. He had almost 1400 yards last year in limited time, and even if you think he can't repeat his TD totals there's no reason to think he can't at least put up the same yardage numbers. To me it seems like his floor is last year's yards with less TD's. But his ceiling is much higher - I am in what appears to be the minority, in that I think he could definitely put up at least 10 TD's again this year, which would make him a solid first-round pick.

It is extremely unlikely he repeats last year's yardage. Historically, no back that has had 400 carries in a season has averaged over 5 YPC, only TWO average 4.5 YPC or better.Only SEVEN backs who had over 350 carries averaged over 5 YPC for that season. Of those only Eric Dickerson averaged 5.5+.Only 12 backs who had between 300-350 carries averaged over 5 YPC.Interestingly - looking at other RBs with over 100 carries in a 5+YPC seasonDuane Thomas has a YPC of 5.3 his rookies, season, never repeatedBlair Thomas had over 5YPC as a rookie, never repeated (he would have been great had he not been injured)Anthony Thompson had 5.2YPC as a rookie, never repeatedJim Taylor had 5.4 YPC as a rookie, and had 5.4 YPC his second year as well, but never againRobert Smith (one of the fastest RBs I've ever seen) only hit 5.0 twice in his careerOnterrio Smith averaged 5.4YPC his rookies season (he would've been great too)JD Smith did it onceEmmitt Smith only made it to 5.0+ in 1993, never againThe great Billy Sims? Only once in his career, the next best season was 4.8YPCO.J. Simpson managed it THREE times, he was amazing.Gale Sayers also managed it THREE times, but only once scored double digit TDsBarry Sanders did it FOUR times! And scored double digit TDs SIX times!Greg Pruitt, only once, the following year went down to 3.8 YPCEddie Price did it once, the following year went down to 3.6 YPCDickie Post did it once, but dropped to 4.8YPC the following yearClinton Portis has done it twiceNick Pietrosante did it one, but the following season, given more carries dropped to 4.1 YPCJoe Perry did it three times in the 50sWalter Payton only did it once, and the following year had a 4.2YPCTony Nathan did it once, but the following seaosn averaged 3.5 YPCMercury Morris did it twice, but the only time his # of carries broke the 200 mark his YPC dropped below 4.0Fred Morrison did it once, the following seaosn his YPC dropped to 4.0Stump Mitchell did it once, but only had one season with over 100 carriesLawrence mcCutcheon did it once, his next highest YPC in his career was 4.6Bottom line - back to back 5+YPC seasons would put him in rare company...OJ SimpsonGale SayersBarry SandersClinton Portis (in a terrific RB system)Do you see MJD as good as ANY of those RBs???? Me neither.Now we coudl go through the same exercise with TDs...You'd be ranking MJD up with LT, Emmitt, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, etc.

 

[switz]

I really think those that think Addai will be a top 5 back are underestimating what the Colts think of De De Dorsey. If Dorsey can learn how to pass-protect over the next couple of months, he'll get more playing time that most here think.

Dorsey is going to have as much impact on the Colts as Shaud Williams will on the Bills, Brad Hoover will on the Panthers, and Noah Herron will ont he Packers. If any of them average more than 3 touches a game, I'd be shocked.Seeing that Dorsey was active for 13 games in '06 and never touched the field, I don't see any optimism for him this season.

 

[shadyridr]

I dont see how MJD could flop. Even if you project at a conservative 900 rush yds and 350 rec yds with 11 total TDs that puts him at RB#19, a mid tier RB2. And there's a good chance he blows those numbers away if Fred gets hurt. Obviously dont take him as a RB1 and he'll be fine.

I dont see how Gore could flop unless he gets injured. Im not gonna consider injuries so Ill say that is a no.

I think Addai has the biggest chance, although I still have him ranked #6. Addai has never carried the full load, Tarik Glenn's retirement is a huge loss to the Oline, and the Colts Oline has been famous over the years for not being able to run block in short yardage situations. Why do you think they pass so much around the goalline and why do you think Manning had 4 rush Tds last year? Not only cuz Manning is a God but also because they cant grind out the tough short yards to score TDs. So Addai's TD rushes might be lower than many people think.

 

[Banger]

Drew since he's the only non-starter that is very TD dependent and had an unsustainable ypc. The others will get many more touch's.

 

[tomarken]

I can't see how Addai flops, barring injury, and you can't predict those.

The same is true with Gore, though he already has a brken hand,

MJD would be relying on scoring a tremendous number of ground TDs again to put up solid numbers which is extremely unlikely. So I would say he has the biggest flop potential. Especially looking at his ADP.

I don't see why everyone thinks MJD needs to score 15 TD's again to have any value. He had almost 1400 yards last year in limited time, and even if you think he can't repeat his TD totals there's no reason to think he can't at least put up the same yardage numbers. To me it seems like his floor is last year's yards with less TD's. But his ceiling is much higher - I am in what appears to be the minority, in that I think he could definitely put up at least 10 TD's again this year, which would make him a solid first-round pick.

It is extremely unlikely he repeats last year's yardage. Historically, no back that has had 400 carries in a season has averaged over 5 YPC, only TWO average 4.5 YPC or better.

Only SEVEN backs who had over 350 carries averaged over 5 YPC for that season. Of those only Eric Dickerson averaged 5.5+.

Only 12 backs who had between 300-350 carries averaged over 5 YPC.

Interestingly - looking at other RBs with over 100 carries in a 5+YPC season

Duane Thomas has a YPC of 5.3 his rookies, season, never repeated

Blair Thomas had over 5YPC as a rookie, never repeated (he would have been great had he not been injured)

Anthony Thompson had 5.2YPC as a rookie, never repeated

Jim Taylor had 5.4 YPC as a rookie, and had 5.4 YPC his second year as well, but never again

Robert Smith (one of the fastest RBs I've ever seen) only hit 5.0 twice in his career

Onterrio Smith averaged 5.4YPC his rookies season (he would've been great too)

JD Smith did it once

Emmitt Smith only made it to 5.0+ in 1993, never again

The great Billy Sims? Only once in his career, the next best season was 4.8YPC

O.J. Simpson managed it THREE times, he was amazing.

Gale Sayers also managed it THREE times, but only once scored double digit TDs

Barry Sanders did it FOUR times! And scored double digit TDs SIX times!

Greg Pruitt, only once, the following year went down to 3.8 YPC

Eddie Price did it once, the following year went down to 3.6 YPC

Dickie Post did it once, but dropped to 4.8YPC the following year

Clinton Portis has done it twice

Nick Pietrosante did it one, but the following season, given more carries dropped to 4.1 YPC

Joe Perry did it three times in the 50s

Walter Payton only did it once, and the following year had a 4.2YPC

Tony Nathan did it once, but the following seaosn averaged 3.5 YPC

Mercury Morris did it twice, but the only time his # of carries broke the 200 mark his YPC dropped below 4.0

Fred Morrison did it once, the following seaosn his YPC dropped to 4.0

Stump Mitchell did it once, but only had one season with over 100 carries

Lawrence mcCutcheon did it once, his next highest YPC in his career was 4.6

Bottom line - back to back 5+YPC seasons would put him in rare company...

OJ Simpson

Gale Sayers

Barry Sanders

Clinton Portis (in a terrific RB system)

Do you see MJD as good as ANY of those RBs???? Me neither.

Now we coudl go through the same exercise with TDs...

You'd be ranking MJD up with LT, Emmitt, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, etc.

I don't remember answering that question yet. I should have been more specific - I never said MJD would repeat 5.7 ypc, but I do think he will get a lot more touches this year to offset the obviously impending drop in ypc. So, do I see MJD as good as Sayers, Simpson, and Sanders? Of course not, not yet at least. You have the benefit of hindsight to say that they were all-time great RB's. Neither you or I know whether or not MJD will eventually join their ranks. I do think he is a special talent, and 31-year old Fred Taylor will not be able to keep him off the field.BTW, I already did the exercise with the TD's in the MJD Spotlight thread, you can check that out if you want. Keep in mind, before Holmes did it you'd be saying "do you really think Holmes belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis...?" And then before Tomlinson did it, you'd be saying "do you really think Tomlinson belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes...?" And then before Portis did it you'd be saying "do you really think Portis belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes, and Tomlinson...?" Just because not many backs are able to produce at these high levels, doesn't mean no one will do it. Every few years for the past decade RB's have achieved things that seemed unlikely at the time - why can't MJD be the next in line? I'm not guaranteeing that MJD will have 10+ TD's this year, but I think with his combination of talent and opportunity it is a very real possibility.

 

[switz]

I dont see how MJD could flop. Even if you project at a conservative 900 rush yds and 350 rec yds with 11 total TDs that puts him at RB#19, a mid tier RB2. And there's a good chance he blows those numbers away if Fred gets hurt. Obviously dont take him as a RB1 and he'll be fine.

But the question was in comparison to last seasons' numbers. The numbers you post would put hm at about 50% of last seasons' production.

I dont see how Gore could flop unless he gets injured. Im not gonna consider injuries so Ill say that is a no.

Agreed. Gore is a STUD.

I think Addai has the biggest chance, although I still have him ranked #6. Addai has never carried the full load, Tarik Glenn's retirement is a huge loss to the Oline, and the Colts Oline has been famous over the years for not being able to run block in short yardage situations. Why do you think they pass so much around the goalline and why do you think Manning had 4 rush Tds last year? Not only cuz Manning is a God but also because they cant grind out the tough short yards to score TDs. So Addai's TD rushes might be lower than many people think.

All of Addai's rushing TDs last season were scored from within the red zone. 1 of every 8 touches in the red zone (20 - 01) resulted in a TD as well. He had 24 carries inside the opponents 10. Manning only had 33 pass attempts within the opponents 10.I don't think statistics support your assessment of the situation.

 

[switz]

Bottom line - back to back 5+YPC seasons would put him in rare company...

OJ Simpson

Gale Sayers

Barry Sanders

Clinton Portis (in a terrific RB system)

Do you see MJD as good as ANY of those RBs???? Me neither.

Now we coudl go through the same exercise with TDs...

You'd be ranking MJD up with LT, Emmitt, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, etc.

I don't remember answering that question yet. I should have been more specific - I never said MJD would repeat 5.7 ypc, but I do think he will get a lot more touches this year to offset the obviously impending drop in ypc. So, do I see MJD as good as Sayers, Simpson, and Sanders? Of course not, not yet at least. You have the benefit of hindsight to say that they were all-time great RB's. Neither you or I know whether or not MJD will eventually join their ranks. I do think he is a special talent, and 31-year old Fred Taylor will not be able to keep him off the field.BTW, I already did the exercise with the TD's in the MJD Spotlight thread, you can check that out if you want. Keep in mind, before Holmes did it you'd be saying "do you really think Holmes belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis...?" And then before Tomlinson did it, you'd be saying "do you really think Tomlinson belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes...?" And then before Portis did it you'd be saying "do you really think Portis belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes, and Tomlinson...?" Just because not many backs are able to produce at these high levels, doesn't mean no one will do it. Every few years for the past decade RB's have achieved things that seemed unlikely at the time - why can't MJD be the next in line? I'm not guaranteeing that MJD will have 10+ TD's this year, but I think with his combination of talent and opportunity it is a very real possibility.

Just for the record:When OJ came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When Sayers came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When Sanders came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When LT came out of college - many viewed him as the next great RB, while I admit he did have many saying he was overrated due to the level of his competition in college.

Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis and Preist Holmes all played in terrific systems for RBs.

None of those points are true when it come to MJD. No one thought he was going to be a great RB. He's not in a great RB system.

Is he good? Sure. But the likelihood of him scoring even 80% of the points he scored last season is very low in my opinion.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Short of injury, I dont see any chance that Addai flops... Zero... Facing 6 men fronts on one of the best offenses in football, I simply just dont see any scenario in which he is anything less than a very good fantasy option. Indy's defense is likely to be significantly downgraded with all their losses which in turn should force the colts to run the ball often to keep the defense off the field... If they get into shootouts that will lead to more scoring chances for Addai who faces absolutely no competition for any time...In my opinion, he is one of the safest picks in the first round and I currently have him as my #3 rb... Anyone with any reasons why Addai would flop short of injury?

Great post. I have been saying this for a while, I also have Addai at 3 and probably would choose him over LJ at this point.

Considering Addai has never carried the full load, even in college, there is definitely a chance that he could flop. Add in the retirement of Tarik Glenn and there are some red flags concerning Addai.

thank you.

 

[redman]

I'm cool on the Colts' prospects. I think they're likely to suffer a post-Super Bowl slump, and they did nothing to better themselves. In fact, they've hemhorraged talent away, losing Glenn and Rhodes on offense. Their defense, which stiffened impressively in the post-season, was still a pronounced weakness all of last year and they really didn't address that either. Meanwhile, Houston has improved IMHO and Jacksonville looks to me like a team ready to break out; even Vince Young in Tennessee, which still has a ways to go overall, is a dangerous opponent.

My pick here is Addai for all of these reasons, and because as some have pointed out he's never been the guy to carry the load.

 

[TheFanatic]

Boy, I don't like seeing a thread like this. Addai and Gore are my main starters in 1 league and MJD is my RB3 (possibly RB2 depending on what Rudi does this year) in another league

So, I'll go with the homer, "none of the above!?!?!"

 

[nygiants56]

GoreAddaiMJD

I'm a bit confused. Is this in order of flopping or anticipated production?

Could be both! I think Gore has had the most difficulty with previous injuries. Addai loses his Pro Bowl LT. And MJD is not fully out of RBBC.Therefore, I suggest Gore has highest ceiling and chance to fail based on ADP. Addai less, and MJD even less since he is being taken in the 1.12/2.01 range.

Gore carries more risk than any other guy in the RB top 20. He's most likely to be the year's biggest flop. He's already broken his hand, on the first day of practices in pads..NOT a good sign at all..given his injury riddled past, I view him as a flash-in-the pan one year wonder ( 2006), and this year's biggest flop/most overrated, overhyped player in fantasy football..more brittle than Robert Smith or Chrissy Brown.

 

[Fiddles]

I can't see how Addai flops, barring injury, and you can't predict those.The same is true with Gore, though he already has a brken hand,MJD would be relying on scoring a tremendous number of ground TDs again to put up solid numbers which is extremely unlikely. So I would say he has the biggest flop potential. Especially looking at his ADP.

I don't see why everyone thinks MJD needs to score 15 TD's again to have any value. He had almost 1400 yards last year in limited time, and even if you think he can't repeat his TD totals there's no reason to think he can't at least put up the same yardage numbers. To me it seems like his floor is last year's yards with less TD's. But his ceiling is much higher - I am in what appears to be the minority, in that I think he could definitely put up at least 10 TD's again this year, which would make him a solid first-round pick.

Not to mention his 46 receptions in ppr leagues.

 

[dickey moe]

GoreAddaiMJD

That's funny -- I'd predict the exact opposite to happen.

 

[grind]

Drew since he's the only non-starter that is very TD dependent and had an unsustainable ypc. The others will get many more touch's.

I think Drew won't be nearly as good as his draft position in all leagues. Nothing wrong with guys who are TD dependant, but I really don't trust those players that are TD dependant from 35 plus yards out. He just seemed to have a lot of long TD runs/receptions last year. I just don't see him duplicating that feat. If his TD's were more the standard goal line plunges, I'd say he'd have no problem scoring 10 plus times again. Just don't see him getting the TD totals expected by most this year as defenses will adjust.

 

[grind]

Drew since he's the only non-starter that is very TD dependent and had an unsustainable ypc. The others will get many more touch's.

I think Drew won't be nearly as good as his draft position in all leagues. Nothing wrong with guys who are TD dependant, but I really don't trust those players that are TD dependant from 35 plus yards out. He just seemed to have a lot of long TD runs/receptions last year. I just don't see him duplicating that feat. If his TD's were more the standard goal line plunges, I'd say he'd have no problem scoring 10 plus times again. Just don't see him getting the TD totals expected by most this year as defenses will adjust.

Must add that I said the same think about Tiki Barber going into last year. Two years ago when Tiki was top five, he had a ton of long TD runs/receptions. I didn't see that duplicating two years in a row. So last year, I steared clear of him. Guess Tiki still had a decent year last year, but nothing even close to his 2005 fantasy year.

 

[Fodasme69]

Drew since he's the only non-starter that is very TD dependent and had an unsustainable ypc. The others will get many more touch's.

I think Drew won't be nearly as good as his draft position in all leagues. Nothing wrong with guys who are TD dependant, but I really don't trust those players that are TD dependant from 35 plus yards out. He just seemed to have a lot of long TD runs/receptions last year. I just don't see him duplicating that feat. If his TD's were more the standard goal line plunges, I'd say he'd have no problem scoring 10 plus times again. Just don't see him getting the TD totals expected by most this year as defenses will adjust.

I don't have the exact numbers but I think 75%+ were TD's from INSIDE the redzone.

 

[Wally Cleaver]

Short of injury, I dont see any chance that Addai flops... Zero... Facing 6 men fronts on one of the best offenses in football, I simply just dont see any scenario in which he is anything less than a very good fantasy option. Indy's defense is likely to be significantly downgraded with all their losses which in turn should force the colts to run the ball often to keep the defense off the field... If they get into shootouts that will lead to more scoring chances for Addai who faces absolutely no competition for any time...In my opinion, he is one of the safest picks in the first round and I currently have him as my #3 rb... Anyone with any reasons why Addai would flop short of injury?

Great post. I have been saying this for a while, I also have Addai at 3 and probably would choose him over LJ at this point.

Considering Addai has never carried the full load, even in college, there is definitely a chance that he could flop. Add in the retirement of Tarik Glenn and there are some red flags concerning Addai.

I consider the fact that Addai has never carried a full load more of a positive than a negative. He hasn't been beat up and has fresh legs for the most part... In dynasty I can see this as a concern, in redraft all systems are go!

 

[GDogg]

Bottom line - back to back 5+YPC seasons would put him in rare company...

OJ Simpson

Gale Sayers

Barry Sanders

Clinton Portis (in a terrific RB system)

Do you see MJD as good as ANY of those RBs???? Me neither.

Now we coudl go through the same exercise with TDs...

You'd be ranking MJD up with LT, Emmitt, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, etc.

I don't remember answering that question yet. I should have been more specific - I never said MJD would repeat 5.7 ypc, but I do think he will get a lot more touches this year to offset the obviously impending drop in ypc. So, do I see MJD as good as Sayers, Simpson, and Sanders? Of course not, not yet at least. You have the benefit of hindsight to say that they were all-time great RB's. Neither you or I know whether or not MJD will eventually join their ranks. I do think he is a special talent, and 31-year old Fred Taylor will not be able to keep him off the field.BTW, I already did the exercise with the TD's in the MJD Spotlight thread, you can check that out if you want. Keep in mind, before Holmes did it you'd be saying "do you really think Holmes belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis...?" And then before Tomlinson did it, you'd be saying "do you really think Tomlinson belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes...?" And then before Portis did it you'd be saying "do you really think Portis belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes, and Tomlinson...?" Just because not many backs are able to produce at these high levels, doesn't mean no one will do it. Every few years for the past decade RB's have achieved things that seemed unlikely at the time - why can't MJD be the next in line? I'm not guaranteeing that MJD will have 10+ TD's this year, but I think with his combination of talent and opportunity it is a very real possibility.

Just for the record:When OJ came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When Sayers came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When Sanders came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When LT came out of college - many viewed him as the next great RB, while I admit he did have many saying he was overrated due to the level of his competition in college.

Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis and Preist Holmes all played in terrific systems for RBs.

None of those points are true when it come to MJD. No one thought he was going to be a great RB. He's not in a great RB system.

Is he good? Sure. But the likelihood of him scoring even 80% of the points he scored last season is very low in my opinion.

This is crazy. There were a lot of scouts, teams and GM's that thought he was going to be a very good NFL RB. The Colts pretty much told Drew they were going to take him in the 1st Round, but Addai fell to them and they chose Addai instead*.Maurice Drew has been highly touted at every single level of football in which he has played and has excelled. He has never given any indication that he wouldn't be great.

And, for the record, Maurice Drew is just as talented as Terrell Davis, Portis and Holmes. And, at least in Drew's first year and this year, Jacksonville's RB system sure looks elite.

*Edit to add: Colts said they would have selected him in the second round even with Addai if Jax hadn't taken him.

 

[GDogg]

Drew since he's the only non-starter that is very TD dependent and had an unsustainable ypc. The others will get many more touch's.

I think Drew won't be nearly as good as his draft position in all leagues. Nothing wrong with guys who are TD dependant, but I really don't trust those players that are TD dependant from 35 plus yards out. He just seemed to have a lot of long TD runs/receptions last year. I just don't see him duplicating that feat. If his TD's were more the standard goal line plunges, I'd say he'd have no problem scoring 10 plus times again. Just don't see him getting the TD totals expected by most this year as defenses will adjust.

Why didn't defenses adjust last year? Why wait?

 

[Chop_Block]

Short of injury, I dont see any chance that Addai flops... Zero... Facing 6 men fronts on one of the best offenses in football, I simply just dont see any scenario in which he is anything less than a very good fantasy option. Indy's defense is likely to be significantly downgraded with all their losses which in turn should force the colts to run the ball often to keep the defense off the field... If they get into shootouts that will lead to more scoring chances for Addai who faces absolutely no competition for any time...In my opinion, he is one of the safest picks in the first round and I currently have him as my #3 rb... Anyone with any reasons why Addai would flop short of injury?

Great post. I have been saying this for a while, I also have Addai at 3 and probably would choose him over LJ at this point.

Considering Addai has never carried the full load, even in college, there is definitely a chance that he could flop. Add in the retirement of Tarik Glenn and there are some red flags concerning Addai.

I do have concerns over Glenn's retirement. Still, Addai convinced me last season and I really disliked him for last season. MJD has sharing issues - but I don't see it dipping off much this season.The hand injury bothers me the most of the three - so my pick RIGHT NOW would be Gore. If I had to pick one - overall, I don't see these three busting right now. But I worry a little about ball control issues with hand injuries, so if pressed, right now it's Gore.

 

[grind]

Drew since he's the only non-starter that is very TD dependent and had an unsustainable ypc. The others will get many more touch's.

I think Drew won't be nearly as good as his draft position in all leagues. Nothing wrong with guys who are TD dependant, but I really don't trust those players that are TD dependant from 35 plus yards out. He just seemed to have a lot of long TD runs/receptions last year. I just don't see him duplicating that feat. If his TD's were more the standard goal line plunges, I'd say he'd have no problem scoring 10 plus times again. Just don't see him getting the TD totals expected by most this year as defenses will adjust.

I don't have the exact numbers but I think 75%+ were TD's from INSIDE the redzone.

Just looked more into it. Five of his 16 TD's were from 32 yards or more out. Just seems like a lot to me, but I suppose that is somewhat the type of player he is. I just know that I can see him not having the same results two years in a row.

 

[(HULK)]

Man, it is so the "sexy thing" this season to be down on MJD.

Here is what I know about the kid.

-He runs with power

-He is very fast

-He is incredibly elusive

-He doesn't fumble

-He doesn't go down on first contact easily

-He can catch pretty well too

I cannot say all of those things for most RBs currently ranked ahead of him.

Yes, last season he had a high YPC, and he had a high touchdown to touch ratio.

Can he maintain that rate? Probably not.

You know what though, there is a 100% chance he touches the ball WAY MORE THIS SEASON. The coaches in Jax would have to eat dumb-dumb sandwichs 24/7 for them not to put the ball in this kids hands as much as possible.

MJD had 166 carries last season. This season, there is every reason to believe he'll get at least 200 carries. If his YPC drops from 5.7 down to 5... guess what, he STILL GETS MORE YARDS THAN LAST YEAR.

I figure, the guy touches the ball 260 times this season as a minimum. Basement time. Last season he had 212 touches and scored on 7% of them. Guess what, if he gets 260 touches, he only needs to score on a more reasonable 5.7% of them.

And honestly, I see him at more touches than this. This is what I consider his basement.

Hating on MJD this season is the cool thing at the moment, but I think there will be egg on everyone's faces before the season is over.

Bottom line: Everything we've seen from him indicates he's really freaking good and not one thing indicates otherwise. He's going to get the ball more this season than he did last season. Everyone running out to downgrade him has out-thunk themselves.

MJD = Championship

 

[gheemony]

1. Good post about how no one would have compared Priest Holmes to great ones when he scored over ten TDs. MJD could be that guy. BTW, anyone compared Priest's height and weight to MJD's height and weight?

2. I disagree with the notion that MJD is dependent on long TDs. Look at the length of his TD runs. He was the goal-line back. If you believe that Greg Jones is going to take that role, you should be down on MJD. I, for one, believe that coaches will be nuts to take MJD out of that role. He has a very good success rate and is a very good goal-line back. He can maintain some of his exemplary TD/carry ratio by maintaining the goal-line back role.

3. And when have you seen a goal-line back that is also the 3rd down back. I think MJD has value because of lots of dump-off passes in the flat for easy yards. And, he has the skills to break a few these for long TDs.

4. There was a good post in another thread about how MJD was highly touted in high-school and in college. Check out YouTube for his highlights at De La Salle HS. He lost his luster because NFL scouts have a natural bias because of his size. Just because he didn't come in hyped (but was still a 2nd round pick), don't think he hasn't been a talent all of his life. I think he's shown that he has the power to overcome his stature - he's a 5' 8" goal line back.

As for the question, I think it's difficult to choose any of the three to bust. I like all of them this year. I'd be more worried about LJ and Alexander than any of these three guys.

 

[EBF]

Which of these 3 players is most likely to fizzle out after last yr's impact season?

Jones-Drew. He won't get as many carries as the other two. And although he's a good player, I think his stats were a little flukish last season. He had 13 rushing TDs, which is a ton for a guy who only had 166 carries. I expect him to come back down to Earth a bit.

 

[Tau837]

I don't remember answering that question yet. I should have been more specific - I never said MJD would repeat 5.7 ypc, but I do think he will get a lot more touches this year to offset the obviously impending drop in ypc. So, do I see MJD as good as Sayers, Simpson, and Sanders? Of course not, not yet at least. You have the benefit of hindsight to say that they were all-time great RB's. Neither you or I know whether or not MJD will eventually join their ranks. I do think he is a special talent, and 31-year old Fred Taylor will not be able to keep him off the field.

BTW, I already did the exercise with the TD's in the MJD Spotlight thread, you can check that out if you want. Keep in mind, before Holmes did it you'd be saying "do you really think Holmes belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis...?" And then before Tomlinson did it, you'd be saying "do you really think Tomlinson belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes...?" And then before Portis did it you'd be saying "do you really think Portis belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes, and Tomlinson...?" Just because not many backs are able to produce at these high levels, doesn't mean no one will do it. Every few years for the past decade RB's have achieved things that seemed unlikely at the time - why can't MJD be the next in line? I'm not guaranteeing that MJD will have 10+ TD's this year, but I think with his combination of talent and opportunity it is a very real possibility.

A difference between MJD and all the others you named is that they were not splitting touches with another RB on their teams to the extent that MJD is with Taylor. Let's cut to the chase. How many touches are you expecting for MJD? Here is an old post I made on the subject:

Curious at the lack of love for MJD here. He was top ten as a rookie last season with no signs that his involvment will go down. Why does every back coming off their rookie seasons get a bump up into the top ten, yet one the largest gets bumped out?

Here is my reasoning. MJD had 212 touches last season. The next lowest number for a top 10 RB last season was Betts, who was RB10 and had 298 touches. The top 10 RBs other than MJD averaged 378 touches. Also, only 5 RBs had more TDs than MJD.So, basically, he had a flukishly good season in terms of production per touch. I expect him to have lower ypc than 5.7 and lower ypr than 9.5, perhaps significantly lower in one or both. And I expect him to have fewer TDs.

I do expect him to have more touches, but not a lot more... not more than 250. Given that, I am not confident that he can again put up top 10 RB numbers.

 

[Tau837]

Man, it is so the "sexy thing" this season to be down on MJD.Here is what I know about the kid.-He runs with power-He is very fast-He is incredibly elusive-He doesn't fumble-He doesn't go down on first contact easily-He can catch pretty well tooI cannot say all of those things for most RBs currently ranked ahead of him.Yes, last season he had a high YPC, and he had a high touchdown to touch ratio.Can he maintain that rate? Probably not.You know what though, there is a 100% chance he touches the ball WAY MORE THIS SEASON. The coaches in Jax would have to eat dumb-dumb sandwichs 24/7 for them not to put the ball in this kids hands as much as possible.MJD had 166 carries last season. This season, there is every reason to believe he'll get at least 200 carries. If his YPC drops from 5.7 down to 5... guess what, he STILL GETS MORE YARDS THAN LAST YEAR.I figure, the guy touches the ball 260 times this season as a minimum. Basement time. Last season he had 212 touches and scored on 7% of them. Guess what, if he gets 260 touches, he only needs to score on a more reasonable 5.7% of them.And honestly, I see him at more touches than this. This is what I consider his basement.Hating on MJD this season is the cool thing at the moment, but I think there will be egg on everyone's faces before the season is over.Bottom line: Everything we've seen from him indicates he's really freaking good and not one thing indicates otherwise. He's going to get the ball more this season than he did last season. Everyone running out to downgrade him has out-thunk themselves.MJD = Championship

Do you expect Taylor to get hurt or the coaches to simply reduce his involvement? Taylor also had a really good season last year. He was RB18 with only 6 TDs, even with MJD on the same team.

 

[pyite76]

Of the 3 listed, I think barring any injuries, they will all be productive in terms of fantasy football.

I look for the "it" factor when I grade backs. Gore showed it last year, but has had soooo many injuries I am backed into a corner thinking, "is this all that he'll end up being known for?"

Addai is the product of a great system, and should still rack up plenty of yardage. I don't think for a minute that he is as talented as Edgerrin James though, and therefore can't transpose Edge's numbers with Indy onto him immediately. I need to see more from Addai still.

MJD has "it". I'm not going to start listing all of his positive attributes here as it's already been done earlier in the thread, but this kid is special. Some of the plays he made last year, and the runs that he finished showed me who MJD was. If he keeps running with that fire and power, his ceiling could be huge.

 

[switz]

Bottom line - back to back 5+YPC seasons would put him in rare company...

OJ Simpson

Gale Sayers

Barry Sanders

Clinton Portis (in a terrific RB system)

Do you see MJD as good as ANY of those RBs???? Me neither.

Now we coudl go through the same exercise with TDs...

You'd be ranking MJD up with LT, Emmitt, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, etc.

I don't remember answering that question yet. I should have been more specific - I never said MJD would repeat 5.7 ypc, but I do think he will get a lot more touches this year to offset the obviously impending drop in ypc. So, do I see MJD as good as Sayers, Simpson, and Sanders? Of course not, not yet at least. You have the benefit of hindsight to say that they were all-time great RB's. Neither you or I know whether or not MJD will eventually join their ranks. I do think he is a special talent, and 31-year old Fred Taylor will not be able to keep him off the field.BTW, I already did the exercise with the TD's in the MJD Spotlight thread, you can check that out if you want. Keep in mind, before Holmes did it you'd be saying "do you really think Holmes belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis...?" And then before Tomlinson did it, you'd be saying "do you really think Tomlinson belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes...?" And then before Portis did it you'd be saying "do you really think Portis belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes, and Tomlinson...?" Just because not many backs are able to produce at these high levels, doesn't mean no one will do it. Every few years for the past decade RB's have achieved things that seemed unlikely at the time - why can't MJD be the next in line? I'm not guaranteeing that MJD will have 10+ TD's this year, but I think with his combination of talent and opportunity it is a very real possibility.

Just for the record:When OJ came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When Sayers came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When Sanders came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When LT came out of college - many viewed him as the next great RB, while I admit he did have many saying he was overrated due to the level of his competition in college.

Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis and Preist Holmes all played in terrific systems for RBs.

None of those points are true when it come to MJD. No one thought he was going to be a great RB. He's not in a great RB system.

Is he good? Sure. But the likelihood of him scoring even 80% of the points he scored last season is very low in my opinion.

This is crazy. There were a lot of scouts, teams and GM's that thought he was going to be a very good NFL RB. The Colts pretty much told Drew they were going to take him in the 1st Round, but Addai fell to them and they chose Addai instead*.Maurice Drew has been highly touted at every single level of football in which he has played and has excelled. He has never given any indication that he wouldn't be great.

And, for the record, Maurice Drew is just as talented as Terrell Davis, Portis and Holmes. And, at least in Drew's first year and this year, Jacksonville's RB system sure looks elite.

*Edit to add: Colts said they would have selected him in the second round even with Addai if Jax hadn't taken him.

That bolded section ALONE speaks volumes to what a contradictory statement you are making.If teams thought MJD was on par with Simpson, Sayers, Sanders, and LT - why was all the hype about Bush? Why did the Colts go with Addai first? If they really thought MJD was a superstar in the making why pass on him? Why did 32 teams pass on him? Why did 27 teams pass on him twice?

 

[GDogg]

Bottom line - back to back 5+YPC seasons would put him in rare company...

OJ Simpson

Gale Sayers

Barry Sanders

Clinton Portis (in a terrific RB system)

Do you see MJD as good as ANY of those RBs???? Me neither.

Now we coudl go through the same exercise with TDs...

You'd be ranking MJD up with LT, Emmitt, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, etc.

I don't remember answering that question yet. I should have been more specific - I never said MJD would repeat 5.7 ypc, but I do think he will get a lot more touches this year to offset the obviously impending drop in ypc. So, do I see MJD as good as Sayers, Simpson, and Sanders? Of course not, not yet at least. You have the benefit of hindsight to say that they were all-time great RB's. Neither you or I know whether or not MJD will eventually join their ranks. I do think he is a special talent, and 31-year old Fred Taylor will not be able to keep him off the field.BTW, I already did the exercise with the TD's in the MJD Spotlight thread, you can check that out if you want. Keep in mind, before Holmes did it you'd be saying "do you really think Holmes belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis...?" And then before Tomlinson did it, you'd be saying "do you really think Tomlinson belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes...?" And then before Portis did it you'd be saying "do you really think Portis belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes, and Tomlinson...?" Just because not many backs are able to produce at these high levels, doesn't mean no one will do it. Every few years for the past decade RB's have achieved things that seemed unlikely at the time - why can't MJD be the next in line? I'm not guaranteeing that MJD will have 10+ TD's this year, but I think with his combination of talent and opportunity it is a very real possibility.

Just for the record:When OJ came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When Sayers came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When Sanders came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When LT came out of college - many viewed him as the next great RB, while I admit he did have many saying he was overrated due to the level of his competition in college.

Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis and Preist Holmes all played in terrific systems for RBs.

None of those points are true when it come to MJD. No one thought he was going to be a great RB. He's not in a great RB system.

Is he good? Sure. But the likelihood of him scoring even 80% of the points he scored last season is very low in my opinion.

This is crazy. There were a lot of scouts, teams and GM's that thought he was going to be a very good NFL RB. The Colts pretty much told Drew they were going to take him in the 1st Round, but Addai fell to them and they chose Addai instead*.Maurice Drew has been highly touted at every single level of football in which he has played and has excelled. He has never given any indication that he wouldn't be great.

And, for the record, Maurice Drew is just as talented as Terrell Davis, Portis and Holmes. And, at least in Drew's first year and this year, Jacksonville's RB system sure looks elite.

*Edit to add: Colts said they would have selected him in the second round even with Addai if Jax hadn't taken him.

That bolded section ALONE speaks volumes to what a contradictory statement you are making.If teams thought MJD was on par with Simpson, Sayers, Sanders, and LT - why was all the hype about Bush? Why did the Colts go with Addai first? If they really thought MJD was a superstar in the making why pass on him? Why did 32 teams pass on him? Why did 27 teams pass on him twice?

I'd appreciate it if you could show me where I said or even implied that teams thought Drew was on par with Simpson, Sayers, Sanders or Tomlinson. I said teams thought he'd be a very good RB. I'm not sure what's so contradictory about thinking a guy is going to be very good, but either draft for need before grabbing him or knowing that you can get him the next round because teams had questions about his height.

Where's the contradiction?

Why was all the hype about Bush? ESPN, USC, the media. Why is all the hype still all about Bush despite two other rookie RB's outplaying him?

 

[tomarken]

If teams thought MJD was on par with Simpson, Sayers, Sanders, and LT - why was all the hype about Bush? Why did the Colts go with Addai first? If they really thought MJD was a superstar in the making why pass on him? Why did 32 teams pass on him? Why did 27 teams pass on him twice?

Why did 16 teams pass on Emmitt Smith? Why did Terrell Davis fall to the 6th round? Why was Priest Holmes undrafted? Who cares? Anyone's opinion of MJD from a year and a half ago is probably the least relevant point to try and discredit his chances to be successful this year.Keep in mind that I'm not putting Jones-Drew on a pedestal with Simpson, Sayers, Sanders, and LT. I'm just saying I think he could easily be a top-ten fantasy RB this year.

 

[(HULK)]

Man, it is so the "sexy thing" this season to be down on MJD.Here is what I know about the kid.-He runs with power-He is very fast-He is incredibly elusive-He doesn't fumble-He doesn't go down on first contact easily-He can catch pretty well tooI cannot say all of those things for most RBs currently ranked ahead of him.Yes, last season he had a high YPC, and he had a high touchdown to touch ratio.Can he maintain that rate? Probably not.You know what though, there is a 100% chance he touches the ball WAY MORE THIS SEASON. The coaches in Jax would have to eat dumb-dumb sandwichs 24/7 for them not to put the ball in this kids hands as much as possible.MJD had 166 carries last season. This season, there is every reason to believe he'll get at least 200 carries. If his YPC drops from 5.7 down to 5... guess what, he STILL GETS MORE YARDS THAN LAST YEAR.I figure, the guy touches the ball 260 times this season as a minimum. Basement time. Last season he had 212 touches and scored on 7% of them. Guess what, if he gets 260 touches, he only needs to score on a more reasonable 5.7% of them.And honestly, I see him at more touches than this. This is what I consider his basement.Hating on MJD this season is the cool thing at the moment, but I think there will be egg on everyone's faces before the season is over.Bottom line: Everything we've seen from him indicates he's really freaking good and not one thing indicates otherwise. He's going to get the ball more this season than he did last season. Everyone running out to downgrade him has out-thunk themselves.MJD = Championship

Do you expect Taylor to get hurt or the coaches to simply reduce his involvement? Taylor also had a really good season last year. He was RB18 with only 6 TDs, even with MJD on the same team.

I expect Taylor involvement to be reduced.He is less effective than MJD.He is another year older (32 I believe).

 

[switz]

Bottom line - back to back 5+YPC seasons would put him in rare company...

OJ Simpson

Gale Sayers

Barry Sanders

Clinton Portis (in a terrific RB system)

Do you see MJD as good as ANY of those RBs???? Me neither.

Now we coudl go through the same exercise with TDs...

You'd be ranking MJD up with LT, Emmitt, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, etc.

I don't remember answering that question yet. I should have been more specific - I never said MJD would repeat 5.7 ypc, but I do think he will get a lot more touches this year to offset the obviously impending drop in ypc. So, do I see MJD as good as Sayers, Simpson, and Sanders? Of course not, not yet at least. You have the benefit of hindsight to say that they were all-time great RB's. Neither you or I know whether or not MJD will eventually join their ranks. I do think he is a special talent, and 31-year old Fred Taylor will not be able to keep him off the field.BTW, I already did the exercise with the TD's in the MJD Spotlight thread, you can check that out if you want. Keep in mind, before Holmes did it you'd be saying "do you really think Holmes belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis...?" And then before Tomlinson did it, you'd be saying "do you really think Tomlinson belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes...?" And then before Portis did it you'd be saying "do you really think Portis belongs in the category of Emmitt, and Davis, and Holmes, and Tomlinson...?" Just because not many backs are able to produce at these high levels, doesn't mean no one will do it. Every few years for the past decade RB's have achieved things that seemed unlikely at the time - why can't MJD be the next in line? I'm not guaranteeing that MJD will have 10+ TD's this year, but I think with his combination of talent and opportunity it is a very real possibility.

Just for the record:When OJ came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When Sayers came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When Sanders came out of college - he was unequivocally touted as the next great RB.

When LT came out of college - many viewed him as the next great RB, while I admit he did have many saying he was overrated due to the level of his competition in college.

Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis and Preist Holmes all played in terrific systems for RBs.

None of those points are true when it come to MJD. No one thought he was going to be a great RB. He's not in a great RB system.

Is he good? Sure. But the likelihood of him scoring even 80% of the points he scored last season is very low in my opinion.

This is crazy. There were a lot of scouts, teams and GM's that thought he was going to be a very good NFL RB. The Colts pretty much told Drew they were going to take him in the 1st Round, but Addai fell to them and they chose Addai instead*.Maurice Drew has been highly touted at every single level of football in which he has played and has excelled. He has never given any indication that he wouldn't be great.

And, for the record, Maurice Drew is just as talented as Terrell Davis, Portis and Holmes. And, at least in Drew's first year and this year, Jacksonville's RB system sure looks elite.

*Edit to add: Colts said they would have selected him in the second round even with Addai if Jax hadn't taken him.

That bolded section ALONE speaks volumes to what a contradictory statement you are making.If teams thought MJD was on par with Simpson, Sayers, Sanders, and LT - why was all the hype about Bush? Why did the Colts go with Addai first? If they really thought MJD was a superstar in the making why pass on him? Why did 32 teams pass on him? Why did 27 teams pass on him twice?

I'd appreciate it if you could show me where I said or even implied that teams thought Drew was on par with Simpson, Sayers, Sanders or Tomlinson. I said teams thought he'd be a very good RB. I'm not sure what's so contradictory about thinking a guy is going to be very good, but either draft for need before grabbing him or knowing that you can get him the next round because teams had questions about his height.

Where's the contradiction?

Why was all the hype about Bush? ESPN, USC, the media. Why is all the hype still all about Bush despite two other rookie RB's outplaying him?

My point was the only RBs who kept up MJD type numbers were nearly universally touted as blue chip, franchise RB prospects. I also said MJD was not. You replied, basically, that he was. That's simply not true.Why all the hype about Bush? Probably because he is exciting, and appears to have all the skills to be a premier RB for a long time, despite not performing at that level last season.

Is MJD as exciting to watch as Bush? Undoubtably he was last season! But does that project to this season? Possibly... But the odds historically say no. There have been a large number of backs who came into the league, and tookk it by storm their rookie year, then became very average. I don't know why that is, but it's just what has happened. That doesn't guarantee the same is true about MJD, just that if you were to put odds on who returns to earth this year, of the three initially listed, MJD seems most likely to flop.

I don't dislike MJD. I just don't think he's as good as he played last year.

The other players had track records from high school, through college, into the NFL playing at an elite level.

MJD was elite in HS, but made his mark more in college as a KR than as an RB for the Bruins. Yes, he was the Bruins leading rusher each season, but his best season was in 2004, the only season he broke 1000 yards, and he got 322 of those yards in one game.

It's quite possible he just wasn't used properly in college, and would have been viewed better had he been. I don't deny his talent. I just know that I'm less of a talent scout than the guys who scout for the NFL, and the college coaches he had for three years.

Maybe it is his height they didn't like and that's it. In high school he was a phenom.

But you still have to go back to the original question - who has the greatest chance to flop? I still say MJD. It's not a knock on him. It's just relative to the other RBs listed. Which Gore would have been a concensus top-5 selection barring injury. Addai was taken ahead of MJD. So NFL scouts feel both those players have a greater chance of success than MJD. I agree with them.

 

[Bizkiteer]

MJD = If his TD's drop, which is likely...the ability to start him weekly will drop with it.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

If teams thought MJD was on par with Simpson, Sayers, Sanders, and LT - why was all the hype about Bush? Why did the Colts go with Addai first? If they really thought MJD was a superstar in the making why pass on him? Why did 32 teams pass on him? Why did 27 teams pass on him twice?

Why did 16 teams pass on Emmitt Smith? Why did Terrell Davis fall to the 6th round? Why was Priest Holmes undrafted? Who cares? Anyone's opinion of MJD from a year and a half ago is probably the least relevant point to try and discredit his chances to be successful this year.Keep in mind that I'm not putting Jones-Drew on a pedestal with Simpson, Sayers, Sanders, and LT. I'm just saying I think he could easily be a top-ten fantasy RB this year.

Now that's something we can agree on. For me it's a simple choice.MJD: Proven Stud

Frank Gore: Proven Stud

Joseph Addai: Decent but unproven player

Talent rules over all.