Most Likely to FLOP (1 Viewer)

[Tillmanisahero]

Greg Jones will play fullback for Jacksonville and not take significant goal line carries away from MJD.

Size of font doesn't make it more true With MJDs size, ( I know he is stocky but still) I don't think it would be wise for a coach to overuse him. There is a very good reason why they resigned Taylor to a $23 Million contract. I think the coaches know that MJD is best suited for a complementary RB not a workhorse. Has he has success as a workhorse? yes for a few games but I seriously don't think they want to burn out their young star. Greg Jones will steal carries and TDs...maybe not many but some (even if he is the full back). I am a MJD owner and would love to have you be right but I think we have to be realistic here.

 

[GDogg]

However, in number crunching, I did notice an important point. The more carries MJD gets, the less successful he is with each carry.

The more carries he gets, the less successful he is?Let's break down exactly what you posted:

Rush attempts 1-5:  5.7

Rush attempts 6-10:  7.5 ([B]So, if you give him [I]more[/I] attempts after the first 5, he actually gets [I]better[/I], not worse[/B])

Rush attempts 11-15:  3.8 (In his next five carries, his YPC drops)

Rush attempts 16-20:  4.7 ([B]Woops!  Give him more carries, and he gets better than the previous 5 carries[/B])

Rush attempts 21-25:  2.2 ypc (He drops again.  Wait a minute...he had [B]6 carries all season long in this range[/B].  Is 6 carries in an entire season enough of a sample size?)

You had five sample sizes of five carries each.  Your premise was that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets.  Maurice Drew actually improved on his previous five carries in his next five carries twice.  He regressed twice.  The 21-25 carry group can pretty much be tossed out considering Drew had 6 carries all season long in this range.

The statement that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets is patently false.  Why do you post so many false statements?

 

[switz]

However, in number crunching, I did notice an important point. The more carries MJD gets, the less successful he is with each carry.

The more carries he gets, the less successful he is?Let's break down exactly what you posted:

Rush attempts 1-5:  5.7

Rush attempts 6-10:  7.5 ([B]So, if you give him [I]more[/I] attempts after the first 5, he actually gets [I]better[/I], not worse[/B])

Rush attempts 11-15:  3.8 (In his next five carries, his YPC drops)

Rush attempts 16-20:  4.7 ([B]Woops!  Give him more carries, and he gets better than the previous 5 carries[/B])

Rush attempts 21-25:  2.2 ypc (He drops again.  Wait a minute...he had [B]6 carries all season long in this range[/B].  Is 6 carries in an entire season enough of a sample size?)

You had five sample sizes of five carries each.  Your premise was that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets.  Maurice Drew actually improved on his previous five carries in his next five carries twice.  He regressed twice.  The 21-25 carry group can pretty much be tossed out considering Drew had 6 carries all season long in this range.

The statement that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets is patently false.  Why do you post so many false statements?

[/QUOTE]FYI - the sample sizes are those selected by ESPN in their season splits, that's how they were arrived at here...However you look at it, that's a nice way to spin the numbers you've come up with...

How's this

1-10 carries = 6.6 YPC

10+ carries = 3.6 YPC

Or if you want to discount the 6 carries he received over 20 (why don't we also take out long runs if we're being selective)

1-10 = 6.6. YPC

10+ = 4.2 YPC

Or you may want to look at it this way -

1-5 = season average

6-10 = better than season average

11-15 =[B] less than season average by a full yard or more[/B]

16-20 =[B] less than seaosn average by a full yard or more[/B]

21-25 =[B] less than season average by a full yard or more[/B]

Or, his 16-20 rush attempts still were far inferior to either his 1-5 or 6-10 attempts. So yes, the trend is, the more carries he gets, the less successful he is with each carry....

I can't believe you are arguing about this   :no:

 

[TitusIII]

I believe Addai is a lock for good numbers, due to his surrounding talent. Gore and MJD looked like superstars last season, but I'd have to say Gore because of his injury history.

 

[Tau837]

All along, my MJD posts in this thread were about managing expectations. I agree he is likely to justify his current ADP. In other threads, plenty of people have been touting him as a top 10 RB, which I disagree with. But if flop is defined as falling short of ADP, I think it's unlikely MJD will flop at his current ADP (i.e., RB17).

However, I think the entire question is a bit disingenuous. IMO it is much more likely that a RB with ADP of RB4 or RB5 will fall short of his ADP than a RB with ADP of RB17. So the way the question is phrased pretty much eliminates MJD as a candidate IMO. I think if the question were more along the lines of who is least likely to repeat last year's performance, or which is least likely to finish as a top 10 RB, MJD would be the choice in both cases.

 

[GDogg]

However, in number crunching, I did notice an important point. The more carries MJD gets, the less successful he is with each carry.

The more carries he gets, the less successful he is?Let's break down exactly what you posted:

Rush attempts 1-5:  5.7

Rush attempts 6-10:  7.5 ([B]So, if you give him [I]more[/I] attempts after the first 5, he actually gets [I]better[/I], not worse[/B])

Rush attempts 11-15:  3.8 (In his next five carries, his YPC drops)

Rush attempts 16-20:  4.7 ([B]Woops!  Give him more carries, and he gets better than the previous 5 carries[/B])

Rush attempts 21-25:  2.2 ypc (He drops again.  Wait a minute...he had [B]6 carries all season long in this range[/B].  Is 6 carries in an entire season enough of a sample size?)

You had five sample sizes of five carries each.  Your premise was that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets.  Maurice Drew actually improved on his previous five carries in his next five carries twice.  He regressed twice.  The 21-25 carry group can pretty much be tossed out considering Drew had 6 carries all season long in this range.

The statement that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets is patently false.  Why do you post so many false statements?

[/QUOTE]FYI - the sample sizes are those selected by ESPN in their season splits, that's how they were arrived at here...However you look at it, that's a nice way to spin the numbers you've come up with...

How's this

1-10 carries = 6.6 YPC

10+ carries = 3.6 YPC

Or if you want to discount the 6 carries he received over 20 (why don't we also take out long runs if we're being selective)

1-10 = 6.6. YPC

10+ = 4.2 YPC

Or you may want to look at it this way -

1-5 = season average

6-10 = better than season average

11-15 =[B] less than season average by a full yard or more[/B]

16-20 =[B] less than seaosn average by a full yard or more[/B]

21-25 =[B] less than season average by a full yard or more[/B]

Or, his 16-20 rush attempts still were far inferior to either his 1-5 or 6-10 attempts. So yes, the trend is, the more carries he gets, the less successful he is with each carry....

I can't believe you are arguing about this   :thumbdown: 

[/QUOTE]This is crazy.You said the more carries he gets, the less successful he is.  In two of the four groups that actually could improve over the previous group, his ypc increased.  He was up and down per split.  That's pretty normal from what I can tell.  However, because the sample size is relatively tiny for all of the 11+ carries he got (46 total or a little less than 3 per game), it'd be pretty ridiculous to put any stock in those splits.  But, go ahead and hang your hat on them.

In addition, he set the bar so high in his first 10 carries that it would have been ridiculous had he not had a drop in ypc.

Maurice Drew is damned good, but the real NFL isn't the Madden video game.

He averaged 6.6 ypc in his first 10 carries.  He pretty much has nowhere to go, but down at that point.

He only had 46 (out of 166 carries) in the 11+ range.  In those, he averaged 4.2 ypc.  Keep in mind that the range we are talking about is roughly 28% of his total carries.

So, for 72% of his carries, he gets 6.6 ypc.  I'll take it.  I'll also wait until I see his splits with more than 46 carries in a particular range before I try to draw any conclusions, such as giving him more carries = less production.

You also didn't bother looking at the context of the runs that showed a drop in YPC.

He had three carries in the first Indy game over 10 carry mark:  He went for 6, then 3 up the middle, then 0 up the middle.  An average of 3.0, which really tells us nothing, but it does drop his ypc.

He had three carries in the first NYJ game over the 10 carry mark when the Jags were running out the clock:  He went off tackle for 9, up the middle for 1, then up the middle for 4.  That's a ypc of 4.6, but it's also 1 yard short of 5 ypc and 4 yards short of 6 ypc.  This tells us nothing.

He had 11 carries in the Philly game over the 10 carry mark (9 in the 4th Q.) when the Jags were running out the clock in the 4th quarter:  Of the Jags 15 plays, they ran the ball 13 times.  Do you honestly think Drew or anyone else would be running at 6 ypc when the defense knows you are running and running out the clock?

He had 5 carries in the second Jax game over the 10 carry mark when the game was no longer in doubt in the 3rd and 4th quarters and they were running the ball every play:  He had 5 carries for 19 yards (the 12th carry went for 12 yards).  A 4.0 ypc that is a drop.  This shows nothing.

I'm not going to go to every other game, but let's just say that I think the context and sample size makes any conclusion pretty baseless.

 

[Tau837]

However, in number crunching, I did notice an important point. The more carries MJD gets, the less successful he is with each carry.

The more carries he gets, the less successful he is?Let's break down exactly what you posted:

Rush attempts 1-5:  5.7

Rush attempts 6-10:  7.5 ([B]So, if you give him [I]more[/I] attempts after the first 5, he actually gets [I]better[/I], not worse[/B])

Rush attempts 11-15:  3.8 (In his next five carries, his YPC drops)

Rush attempts 16-20:  4.7 ([B]Woops!  Give him more carries, and he gets better than the previous 5 carries[/B])

Rush attempts 21-25:  2.2 ypc (He drops again.  Wait a minute...he had [B]6 carries all season long in this range[/B].  Is 6 carries in an entire season enough of a sample size?)

You had five sample sizes of five carries each.  Your premise was that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets.  Maurice Drew actually improved on his previous five carries in his next five carries twice.  He regressed twice.  The 21-25 carry group can pretty much be tossed out considering Drew had 6 carries all season long in this range.

The statement that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets is patently false.  Why do you post so many false statements?

[/QUOTE]FYI - the sample sizes are those selected by ESPN in their season splits, that's how they were arrived at here...However you look at it, that's a nice way to spin the numbers you've come up with...

How's this

1-10 carries = 6.6 YPC

10+ carries = 3.6 YPC

Or if you want to discount the 6 carries he received over 20 (why don't we also take out long runs if we're being selective)

1-10 = 6.6. YPC

10+ = 4.2 YPC

Or you may want to look at it this way -

1-5 = season average

6-10 = better than season average

11-15 =[B] less than season average by a full yard or more[/B]

16-20 =[B] less than seaosn average by a full yard or more[/B]

21-25 =[B] less than season average by a full yard or more[/B]

Or, his 16-20 rush attempts still were far inferior to either his 1-5 or 6-10 attempts. So yes, the trend is, the more carries he gets, the less successful he is with each carry....

I can't believe you are arguing about this   :thumbdown: 

[/QUOTE] :own3d: I don't really think this is an important point here, but GDogg comes off looking like a language lawyer instead of discussing the underlying merit of the splits switz posted.

 

[Tau837]

However, in number crunching, I did notice an important point. The more carries MJD gets, the less successful he is with each carry.

The more carries he gets, the less successful he is?Let's break down exactly what you posted:

Rush attempts 1-5:  5.7

Rush attempts 6-10:  7.5 ([B]So, if you give him [I]more[/I] attempts after the first 5, he actually gets [I]better[/I], not worse[/B])

Rush attempts 11-15:  3.8 (In his next five carries, his YPC drops)

Rush attempts 16-20:  4.7 ([B]Woops!  Give him more carries, and he gets better than the previous 5 carries[/B])

Rush attempts 21-25:  2.2 ypc (He drops again.  Wait a minute...he had [B]6 carries all season long in this range[/B].  Is 6 carries in an entire season enough of a sample size?)

You had five sample sizes of five carries each.  Your premise was that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets.  Maurice Drew actually improved on his previous five carries in his next five carries twice.  He regressed twice.  The 21-25 carry group can pretty much be tossed out considering Drew had 6 carries all season long in this range.

The statement that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets is patently false.  Why do you post so many false statements?

[/QUOTE]FYI - the sample sizes are those selected by ESPN in their season splits, that's how they were arrived at here...However you look at it, that's a nice way to spin the numbers you've come up with...

How's this

1-10 carries = 6.6 YPC

10+ carries = 3.6 YPC

Or if you want to discount the 6 carries he received over 20 (why don't we also take out long runs if we're being selective)

1-10 = 6.6. YPC

10+ = 4.2 YPC

Or you may want to look at it this way -

1-5 = season average

6-10 = better than season average

11-15 =[B] less than season average by a full yard or more[/B]

16-20 =[B] less than seaosn average by a full yard or more[/B]

21-25 =[B] less than season average by a full yard or more[/B]

Or, his 16-20 rush attempts still were far inferior to either his 1-5 or 6-10 attempts. So yes, the trend is, the more carries he gets, the less successful he is with each carry....

I can't believe you are arguing about this   :thumbdown: 

[/QUOTE]This is crazy.You said the more carries he gets, the less successful he is.  In two of the four groups that actually could improve over the previous group, his ypc increased.  He was up and down per split.  That's pretty normal from what I can tell.  However, because the sample size is relatively tiny for all of the 11+ carries he got (46 total or a little less than 3 per game), it'd be pretty ridiculous to put any stock in those splits.  But, go ahead and hang your hat on them.

In addition, he set the bar so high in his first 10 carries that it would have been ridiculous had he not had a drop in ypc.

Maurice Drew is damned good, but the real NFL isn't the Madden video game.

He averaged 6.6 ypc in his first 10 carries.  He pretty much has nowhere to go, but down at that point.

He only had 46 (out of 166 carries) in the 11+ range.  In those, he averaged 4.2 ypc.  Keep in mind that the range we are talking about is roughly 28% of his total carries.

So, for 72% of his carries, he gets 6.6 ypc.  I'll take it.  I'll also wait until I see his splits with more than 46 carries in a particular range before I try to draw any conclusions, such as giving him more carries = less production.

You also didn't bother looking at the context of the runs that showed a drop in YPC.

He had three carries in the first Indy game over 10 carry mark:  He went for 6, then 3 up the middle, then 0 up the middle.  An average of 3.0, which really tells us nothing, but it does drop his ypc.

He had three carries in the first NYJ game over the 10 carry mark when the Jags were running out the clock:  He went off tackle for 9, up the middle for 1, then up the middle for 4.  That's a ypc of 4.6, but it's also 1 yard short of 5 ypc and 4 yards short of 6 ypc.  This tells us nothing.

He had 11 carries in the Philly game over the 10 carry mark (9 in the 4th Q.) when the Jags were running out the clock in the 4th quarter:  Of the Jags 15 plays, they ran the ball 13 times.  Do you honestly think Drew or anyone else would be running at 6 ypc when the defense knows you are running and running out the clock?

He had 5 carries in the second Jax game over the 10 carry mark when the game was no longer in doubt in the 3rd and 4th quarters and they were running the ball every play:  He had 5 carries for 19 yards (the 12th carry went for 12 yards).  A 4.0 ypc that is a drop.  This shows nothing.

I'm not going to go to every other game, but let's just say that I think the context and sample size makes any conclusion pretty baseless.

[/QUOTE]  :own3d:

 

[Defending Champs]

With all this MJD talk, I'd like to throw my question out there.

I have a chance to keep either of the following and haven't quite made up my mind.

1. Keep Steven Jackson (at a reasonable rate in relative terms for a top 5 RB) as we all know is flat out awesome.

OR

2. Trade SJax for Steve Smith on the cheap (auction draft) and keep MJD on the cheap as well. This gives me the opportunity to grab another top tier (Top 5) back at nearly any cost.

 

[GDogg]

However, in number crunching, I did notice an important point. The more carries MJD gets, the less successful he is with each carry.

The more carries he gets, the less successful he is?Let's break down exactly what you posted:

Rush attempts 1-5:  5.7

Rush attempts 6-10:  7.5 ([B]So, if you give him [I]more[/I] attempts after the first 5, he actually gets [I]better[/I], not worse[/B])

Rush attempts 11-15:  3.8 (In his next five carries, his YPC drops)

Rush attempts 16-20:  4.7 ([B]Woops!  Give him more carries, and he gets better than the previous 5 carries[/B])

Rush attempts 21-25:  2.2 ypc (He drops again.  Wait a minute...he had [B]6 carries all season long in this range[/B].  Is 6 carries in an entire season enough of a sample size?)

You had five sample sizes of five carries each.  Your premise was that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets.  Maurice Drew actually improved on his previous five carries in his next five carries twice.  He regressed twice.  The 21-25 carry group can pretty much be tossed out considering Drew had 6 carries all season long in this range.

The statement that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets is patently false.  Why do you post so many false statements?

[/QUOTE]FYI - the sample sizes are those selected by ESPN in their season splits, that's how they were arrived at here...However you look at it, that's a nice way to spin the numbers you've come up with...

How's this

1-10 carries = 6.6 YPC

10+ carries = 3.6 YPC

Or if you want to discount the 6 carries he received over 20 (why don't we also take out long runs if we're being selective)

1-10 = 6.6. YPC

10+ = 4.2 YPC

Or you may want to look at it this way -

1-5 = season average

6-10 = better than season average

11-15 =[B] less than season average by a full yard or more[/B]

16-20 =[B] less than seaosn average by a full yard or more[/B]

21-25 =[B] less than season average by a full yard or more[/B]

Or, his 16-20 rush attempts still were far inferior to either his 1-5 or 6-10 attempts. So yes, the trend is, the more carries he gets, the less successful he is with each carry....

I can't believe you are arguing about this   :boxing: 

[/QUOTE] :lmao: I don't really think this is an important point here, but GDogg comes off looking like a language lawyer instead of discussing the underlying merit of the splits switz posted.

[/QUOTE]I just don't think there is much merit to the splits as I previously posted.  46 carries in the split range isn't a large enough sample size in my opinion, especially when you don't consider the stage of the games and the strategy involved at that time.For the vast majority of RB's, the 11+ carry mark is going to come sometime in the 2nd to 3rd quarter.  Because of the nature of the Jags offense/game situations, all of these carries for Drew came sometime late in the 3rd, but usually in the 4th quarter.

You can draw whatever conclusions you'd like, but it doesn't change the fact that it is completely false that "the more carries he gets, the less successful he is with [I][B]each[/B][/I] carry."  Take a look at the play by plays and tell me this is true.

 

[GDogg]

However, in number crunching, I did notice an important point. The more carries MJD gets, the less successful he is with each carry.

The more carries he gets, the less successful he is?Let's break down exactly what you posted:

Rush attempts 1-5:  5.7

Rush attempts 6-10:  7.5 ([B]So, if you give him [I]more[/I] attempts after the first 5, he actually gets [I]better[/I], not worse[/B])

Rush attempts 11-15:  3.8 (In his next five carries, his YPC drops)

Rush attempts 16-20:  4.7 ([B]Woops!  Give him more carries, and he gets better than the previous 5 carries[/B])

Rush attempts 21-25:  2.2 ypc (He drops again.  Wait a minute...he had [B]6 carries all season long in this range[/B].  Is 6 carries in an entire season enough of a sample size?)

You had five sample sizes of five carries each.  Your premise was that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets.  Maurice Drew actually improved on his previous five carries in his next five carries twice.  He regressed twice.  The 21-25 carry group can pretty much be tossed out considering Drew had 6 carries all season long in this range.

The statement that the more carries he gets, the less successful he gets is patently false.  Why do you post so many false statements?

[/QUOTE]FYI - the sample sizes are those selected by ESPN in their season splits, that's how they were arrived at here...However you look at it, that's a nice way to spin the numbers you've come up with...

How's this

1-10 carries = 6.6 YPC

10+ carries = 3.6 YPC

Or if you want to discount the 6 carries he received over 20 (why don't we also take out long runs if we're being selective)

1-10 = 6.6. YPC

10+ = 4.2 YPC

Or you may want to look at it this way -

1-5 = season average

6-10 = better than season average

11-15 =[B] less than season average by a full yard or more[/B]

16-20 =[B] less than seaosn average by a full yard or more[/B]

21-25 =[B] less than season average by a full yard or more[/B]

Or, his 16-20 rush attempts still were far inferior to either his 1-5 or 6-10 attempts. So yes, the trend is, the more carries he gets, the less successful he is with each carry....

I can't believe you are arguing about this   :boxing: 

[/QUOTE]This is crazy.You said the more carries he gets, the less successful he is.  In two of the four groups that actually could improve over the previous group, his ypc increased.  He was up and down per split.  That's pretty normal from what I can tell.  However, because the sample size is relatively tiny for all of the 11+ carries he got (46 total or a little less than 3 per game), it'd be pretty ridiculous to put any stock in those splits.  But, go ahead and hang your hat on them.

In addition, he set the bar so high in his first 10 carries that it would have been ridiculous had he not had a drop in ypc.

Maurice Drew is damned good, but the real NFL isn't the Madden video game.

He averaged 6.6 ypc in his first 10 carries.  He pretty much has nowhere to go, but down at that point.

He only had 46 (out of 166 carries) in the 11+ range.  In those, he averaged 4.2 ypc.  Keep in mind that the range we are talking about is roughly 28% of his total carries.

So, for 72% of his carries, he gets 6.6 ypc.  I'll take it.  I'll also wait until I see his splits with more than 46 carries in a particular range before I try to draw any conclusions, such as giving him more carries = less production.

You also didn't bother looking at the context of the runs that showed a drop in YPC.

He had three carries in the first Indy game over 10 carry mark:  He went for 6, then 3 up the middle, then 0 up the middle.  An average of 3.0, which really tells us nothing, but it does drop his ypc.

He had three carries in the first NYJ game over the 10 carry mark when the Jags were running out the clock:  He went off tackle for 9, up the middle for 1, then up the middle for 4.  That's a ypc of 4.6, but it's also 1 yard short of 5 ypc and 4 yards short of 6 ypc.  This tells us nothing.

He had 11 carries in the Philly game over the 10 carry mark (9 in the 4th Q.) when the Jags were running out the clock in the 4th quarter:  Of the Jags 15 plays, they ran the ball 13 times.  Do you honestly think Drew or anyone else would be running at 6 ypc when the defense knows you are running and running out the clock?

He had 5 carries in the second Jax game over the 10 carry mark when the game was no longer in doubt in the 3rd and 4th quarters and they were running the ball every play:  He had 5 carries for 19 yards (the 12th carry went for 12 yards).  A 4.0 ypc that is a drop.  This shows nothing.

I'm not going to go to every other game, but let's just say that I think the context and sample size makes any conclusion pretty baseless.

[/QUOTE]  :lmao: [/QUOTE]I have no idea what this means.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Jones-Drew is the only one of these players who may not even get the most carries on his own team, so he's the most likely to flop.

Gore will not be a flop as long as he stays healthy. His injury history (right up to this week) is a concern, though.

Addai has almost no downside. He's basically a lock to get 80%+ of Indy's carries and will play all 3 downs. Unless he gets hurt, I can't imagine any scenario in which he doesn't have at least 1600 yards rushing/receiving and 10+ total TDs. And here's the kicker... if he does get hurt, you can protect yourself easily. The Colts have shown that they'll go to DeDe Dorsey if Addai misses significant time, but Dorsey has almost no value on his own. Thus, you can handcuff Addai in rounds 14-16 and in case he does get hurt, you still have a viable back on your roster without having to hit the waiver wire. Jones-Drew, you'd have to handcuff with Taylor, who is being drafted 10 rounds ahead of Dorsey and with Gore, you'd have to acquire both Hicks and Robinson at this point to cover your butt, meaning you're tying up 3 roster spots for your RB1.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Greg Jones will play fullback for Jacksonville and not take significant goal line carries away from MJD.

Size of font doesn't make it more true With MJDs size, ( I know he is stocky but still) I don't think it would be wise for a coach to overuse him. There is a very good reason why they resigned Taylor to a $23 Million contract. I think the coaches know that MJD is best suited for a complementary RB not a workhorse. Has he has success as a workhorse? yes for a few games but I seriously don't think they want to burn out their young star. Greg Jones will steal carries and TDs...maybe not many but some (even if he is the full back). I am a MJD owner and would love to have you be right but I think we have to be realistic here.

HULK is absolutely correct. Greg Jones will play fullback for Jacksonville and will not take significant goal line carries away from MJD.

 

[switz]

I just don't think there is much merit to the splits as I previously posted. 46 carries in the split range isn't a large enough sample size in my opinion, especially when you don't consider the stage of the games and the strategy involved at that time.

But 48 in a split range for 7.5ypc IS a good sample? Splits exist because they break data down into nice sections. If you like larger samples, I grouped them into 1-10 carries (118) and 10+ carries (48) which should be good enough if 48 carries was good enough to show he can average 7.5 over that amount.As for considering the game and strategy at the time...

For the vast majority of RB's, the 11+ carry mark is going to come sometime in the 2nd to 3rd quarter. Because of the nature of the Jags offense/game situations, all of these carries for Drew came sometime late in the 3rd, but usually in the 4th quarter.

So what you are saying, is that the majority of MJDs 10+ carries occured later in the game, in comparison to most RBs. Later in the game when generally the defense is MORE run down, and the RB should have MORE success. His legs are generally fresher...

You can draw whatever conclusions you'd like, but it doesn't change the fact that it is completely false that "the more carries he gets, the less successful he is with each carry." Take a look at the play by plays and tell me this is true.

As a trend that is true. It is not implying that carry #24 must be for less yards than carry #23, rather that as the game goes on, the trend is for him to average less yards per carry.Why don't we look at a few game logs:

I will use the three games where MJD received more than 15 carries...

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles - October 29, 2006

(carries #42-62 of the season)

1st QUARTER

1. (3rd and 5) 2 yards

2. (1st and 10) 2 yards

3. (2nd and 4) fumble

2nd QUARTER

4. (2nd and 8) 3 yards

5. (1st and 17) 2 yards

3rd QUARTER

6. (1st and 10) 5 yards

7. (2nd and 5) 3 yards

8. (3rd and 2) 1 yard

9. (4th and 1) 3 yards

10. (1st and 10) 4 yards

11. (2nd and 6) 3 yards

12. (1st and 10) 3 yards

13. (2nd and 7) 11 yards

4th QUARTER

14. (1st and 10) 4 yards

15. (2nd and 6) 3 yards

16. (2nd and 11) 13 yards

17. (1st and 10) 1 yard

(1st and 10) 3 yards - penalty nullified play

18. (1st and 20) 12 yards

19. (2nd and 8) 4 yards

20. (1st and 10) 0 yards

21. (2nd and 10 [4:22 left in game]) -2 yards

Yardage pretty evenly spread out, in fact his long runs came later in the game, as would be expected against a tired defense.

----------

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans - December 17, 2006

(carries #111-135 of the season)

1st QUARTER

1. (1st and 10) 2 yards

2. (2nd and ) 1 yards

3. (1st and 10) 8 yards

4. (3rd and 2) 3 yards

5. (2nd and 6) -2 yards

6. (2nd and 12) 12 yards TD

7. (1st and 10) 4 yards

2nd QUARTER

8. (1st and 10) 3 yards

9. (1st and 10) 6 yards

10. (1st and 10) 1 yards

11. (2nd and 10) 6 yards

12. (3rd and 4) 17 yards

13. (1st and 10) 4 yards

14. (2nd and 6) 1 yards

3rd QUARTER

15. (1st and 10) 6 yards

16. (2nd and 4) 0 yards

17. (1st and 10) -1 yards

18. (2nd and 10) 15 yards

19. (1st and 10) -1 yards

20. (1st and 10) 0 yards

[At this point L Toefield came in for an entire drive to spell MJD]

21. (1st and 10) 4 yards

4th QUARTER

22. (3rd and 1) 2 yards

23. (1st and 10) 5 yards

24. (1st and 10 ) 3 yards

25. (2nd and 17) 5 yards

[At this point JAX was down by 7 and MJD did not see another carry]

Interesting to me he was spelled for a whole series, thoguh I don't know the reason. The game log doesn't indicate a minor injury or anything. But 4 of his 6 carries in the preceding drive were for 0 or negative yards.

----------

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars - December 24, 2006

(carries #136-154 of the season)

1st QUARTER

1. (1st and 10) 4 yards

2. (2nd and 6) 3 yards

3. (2nd and 13) 4 yards

4. (3rd and 5) 6 yards

5. (1st and 10) 2 yards

6. (2nd and 8) 0 yards

2nd QUARTER

7. (1st and 10) 74 yards TD

8. (1st and 10) 3 yards

9. (3rd and 9) 3 yards

10. (3rd and 16) 7 yards

3rd QUARTER

11. (2nd and 10) 1 yards

12. (1st and 10) -1 yards

13. (1st and 10) 3 yards

14. (1st and 1) 1 yards TD

4th QUARTER

15. (1st and 10) 2 yards

16. (2nd and 8) 6 yards

17. (1st and 10) 0 yards

18. (3rd and 3) 0 yards

19. (2nd and 16) 13 yards

All of his losses but one in this game came after 10 carries. That's pretty abitrary though. Without his 74 yard TD this game would have stunk for him.

----------

So, what do we take from this? Maybe three games isn't a good sample either?

Obviously a few of his long runs came in passing situations. That'll happen to any RB. I honestly don't know. The full season splits indicate a trend to performing worse as the game goes on. These games only slighlty imply that at best.

But there you have it... for whatever it's worth...

 

[(HULK)]

HULK is absolutely correct. Greg Jones will play fullback for Jacksonville and will not take significant goal line carries away from MJD.

Sigged

 

[The Kansas Comet]

I like all three players (especially MJD - watched him play a lot in college), but I think the most likely to flop would be MJD just because he's no lock to get the most carries on his team. I would imagine both Gore and Addai would get anywhere from 65-80% of their team's carries this season, while I would be surprised if Jones-Drew got more than 55-60%, for a few reasons. One is that Taylor can still put up decent numbers and is better than the subs that SF or Indy have. A second reason is that I think he'll still be an important return guy for the Jags, which means they'll want to do their best to keep him fresh enough to be effective as an RB and a returner. Neither Gore nor Addai will have that added special teams duty. But I hope MJD has a great season - I've always thought he was a tremendous talent who was overlooked because he played on some spotty UCLA teams.

 

[(HULK)]

Submitted this question on the Jags site:

Who do you think will be the lead running back this season, Fred Taylor or Maurice Jones-Drew? Also, what role do you expect a now healthy Greg Jones to play? Fullback? Thanks.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I still don't think we're arguing the same things...define "flop". Not live up to where they are getting drafted? If that is the case how close would they have to come to where you picked them to be considered something other than a "flop"?

If you pick Gore with the #3 pick and he finishes as the #7 rb is that a flop?

 

[Tau837]

I have no idea what this means.

Me either. I always wanted to use that smiley, though.

 

[Tau837]

A second reason is that I think he'll still be an important return guy for the Jags, which means they'll want to do their best to keep him fresh enough to be effective as an RB and a returner.

This is an interesting point that I had not seen mentioned in this or other recent MJD threads. Is it true that MJD will be their primary return guy? If so, that is a reason I hadn't thought of that might lead the coaches to continue to split the workload with Taylor in similar fashion to last year rather than substantially increasing MJD's carries.

 

[Tau837]

Addai has almost no downside. He's basically a lock to get 80%+ of Indy's carries and will play all 3 downs. Unless he gets hurt, I can't imagine any scenario in which he doesn't have at least 1600 yards rushing/receiving and 10+ total TDs. And here's the kicker... if he does get hurt, you can protect yourself easily. The Colts have shown that they'll go to DeDe Dorsey if Addai misses significant time, but Dorsey has almost no value on his own. Thus, you can handcuff Addai in rounds 14-16 and in case he does get hurt, you still have a viable back on your roster without having to hit the waiver wire. Jones-Drew, you'd have to handcuff with Taylor, who is being drafted 10 rounds ahead of Dorsey and with Gore, you'd have to acquire both Hicks and Robinson at this point to cover your butt, meaning you're tying up 3 roster spots for your RB1.

 

[GDogg]

I just don't think there is much merit to the splits as I previously posted. 46 carries in the split range isn't a large enough sample size in my opinion, especially when you don't consider the stage of the games and the strategy involved at that time.

But 48 in a split range for 7.5ypc IS a good sample? Splits exist because they break data down into nice sections. If you like larger samples, I grouped them into 1-10 carries (118) and 10+ carries (48) which should be good enough if 48 carries was good enough to show he can average 7.5 over that amount.As for considering the game and strategy at the time...

For the vast majority of RB's, the 11+ carry mark is going to come sometime in the 2nd to 3rd quarter. Because of the nature of the Jags offense/game situations, all of these carries for Drew came sometime late in the 3rd, but usually in the 4th quarter.

So what you are saying, is that the majority of MJDs 10+ carries occured later in the game, in comparison to most RBs. Later in the game when generally the defense is MORE run down, and the RB should have MORE success. His legs are generally fresher...

You can draw whatever conclusions you'd like, but it doesn't change the fact that it is completely false that "the more carries he gets, the less successful he is with each carry." Take a look at the play by plays and tell me this is true.

As a trend that is true. It is not implying that carry #24 must be for less yards than carry #23, rather that as the game goes on, the trend is for him to average less yards per carry.Why don't we look at a few game logs:

I will use the three games where MJD received more than 15 carries...

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles - October 29, 2006

(carries #42-62 of the season)

1st QUARTER

1. (3rd and 5) 2 yards

2. (1st and 10) 2 yards

3. (2nd and 4) fumble

2nd QUARTER

4. (2nd and 8) 3 yards

5. (1st and 17) 2 yards

3rd QUARTER

6. (1st and 10) 5 yards

7. (2nd and 5) 3 yards

8. (3rd and 2) 1 yard

9. (4th and 1) 3 yards

10. (1st and 10) 4 yards

11. (2nd and 6) 3 yards

12. (1st and 10) 3 yards

13. (2nd and 7) 11 yards

4th QUARTER

14. (1st and 10) 4 yards

15. (2nd and 6) 3 yards

16. (2nd and 11) 13 yards

17. (1st and 10) 1 yard

(1st and 10) 3 yards - penalty nullified play

18. (1st and 20) 12 yards

19. (2nd and 8) 4 yards

20. (1st and 10) 0 yards

21. (2nd and 10 [4:22 left in game]) -2 yards

Yardage pretty evenly spread out, in fact his long runs came later in the game, as would be expected against a tired defense.

----------

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans - December 17, 2006

(carries #111-135 of the season)

1st QUARTER

1. (1st and 10) 2 yards

2. (2nd and ) 1 yards

3. (1st and 10) 8 yards

4. (3rd and 2) 3 yards

5. (2nd and 6) -2 yards

6. (2nd and 12) 12 yards TD

7. (1st and 10) 4 yards

2nd QUARTER

8. (1st and 10) 3 yards

9. (1st and 10) 6 yards

10. (1st and 10) 1 yards

11. (2nd and 10) 6 yards

12. (3rd and 4) 17 yards

13. (1st and 10) 4 yards

14. (2nd and 6) 1 yards

3rd QUARTER

15. (1st and 10) 6 yards

16. (2nd and 4) 0 yards

17. (1st and 10) -1 yards

18. (2nd and 10) 15 yards

19. (1st and 10) -1 yards

20. (1st and 10) 0 yards

[At this point L Toefield came in for an entire drive to spell MJD]

21. (1st and 10) 4 yards

4th QUARTER

22. (3rd and 1) 2 yards

23. (1st and 10) 5 yards

24. (1st and 10 ) 3 yards

25. (2nd and 17) 5 yards

[At this point JAX was down by 7 and MJD did not see another carry]

Interesting to me he was spelled for a whole series, thoguh I don't know the reason. The game log doesn't indicate a minor injury or anything. But 4 of his 6 carries in the preceding drive were for 0 or negative yards.

----------

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars - December 24, 2006

(carries #136-154 of the season)

1st QUARTER

1. (1st and 10) 4 yards

2. (2nd and 6) 3 yards

3. (2nd and 13) 4 yards

4. (3rd and 5) 6 yards

5. (1st and 10) 2 yards

6. (2nd and 8) 0 yards

2nd QUARTER

7. (1st and 10) 74 yards TD

8. (1st and 10) 3 yards

9. (3rd and 9) 3 yards

10. (3rd and 16) 7 yards

3rd QUARTER

11. (2nd and 10) 1 yards

12. (1st and 10) -1 yards

13. (1st and 10) 3 yards

14. (1st and 1) 1 yards TD

4th QUARTER

15. (1st and 10) 2 yards

16. (2nd and 8) 6 yards

17. (1st and 10) 0 yards

18. (3rd and 3) 0 yards

19. (2nd and 16) 13 yards

All of his losses but one in this game came after 10 carries. That's pretty abitrary though. Without his 74 yard TD this game would have stunk for him.

----------

So, what do we take from this? Maybe three games isn't a good sample either?

Obviously a few of his long runs came in passing situations. That'll happen to any RB. I honestly don't know. The full season splits indicate a trend to performing worse as the game goes on. These games only slighlty imply that at best.

But there you have it... for whatever it's worth...

Very fair analysis. And, a very good post.You're right that the Patriots game wouldn't have been a very good game for him without the 74 yd. TD. Did you see the game? The 74 yd. run was bizarre and fantastic. The Jags ran a dive toward the A gap (I think) and an OG tripped Drew in the backfield and he falls down. The Pats all thought Drew had been tackled, but Maurice got right back up, busted through the LOS and sprinted 74 yards for the TD. Belichick challenged the ruling and lost, obviously. It was great, but even I have to admit that the 74 yd. TD, although a very heady play by a smart player, was fluky.

I still don't believe it's worth all that much...yet. I'm trying my hardest to take off the blue and gold err...whatever colors Jacksonville is, Maurice Drew glasses, but it just seems to me, and this goes back to when he was at UCLA, that Drew is a 3-5 yards per carry guy that is going to bust a handful of runs for 12+ yards throughout the game, and is a threat to take it to the house on you with every play.

The reason, at least to me, that the lack of carries over 10 is significant is because of the type of runner he is. He'll get you 3, then 4, then 6, then 0, then 2, then 17. When he's only getting 3 carries over that threshold in a game, the 4 ypc isn't that significant to me because if he'd gotten more, then it's just a matter of time before he busts another for 12+ yards or so.

For instance, look at that second game. You pointed out of 4 of his runs in the second to last drive were for no gain or negative yardage. But, if you look at his first 14 carries, then 9 of his runs were for 4 yards or less, including four of 1 yard or less. That second to last drive is worse than those first 14, I'll give you that. But, I don't think it's all that out of the norm for him.

So, I'm not sure what to make of the numbers. You seem to say that it shows definitively that he's less effective as he gets more carries. From watching the games, and even based on looking at the above on a play by play basis, I just didn't see it.

Good post and I can understand why you deduce what you have, but I simply disagree based on watching the games and even seeing the trend in the games you posted above of him getting a around 4-5 yards for a few carries then some with 2 or less, and then the run for 12+ yards.

 

[GDogg]

I have no idea what this means.

Me either. I always wanted to use that smiley, though.

Nice!

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I have no idea what this means.

Me either. I always wanted to use that smiley, though.

Nice!

Can someone tell me what means?

 

[NOONAN]

A second reason is that I think he'll still be an important return guy for the Jags, which means they'll want to do their best to keep him fresh enough to be effective as an RB and a returner.

This is an interesting point that I had not seen mentioned in this or other recent MJD threads. Is it true that MJD will be their primary return guy? If so, that is a reason I hadn't thought of that might lead the coaches to continue to split the workload with Taylor in similar fashion to last year rather than substantially increasing MJD's carries.

I did not look back but I believe this point was made in response to why Taylor was signed to an extension if MJD is the heir-apparent in J'Ville. If it wasn't made, it sure was in my train of thought as an MJD owner in a league that gives points for returns!!!Again, G Jones is bulking up to be a Fullback. MJD was WAY better in the red zone and gives Jax the dual threat with his receiving abilities like Westbrook for Philly. Defenses can stack the goalline and stalemate the huge personnel packages. It is really tough to defend a POWERFUL and ELUSIVE threat from less than 5 yards out.

 

[AnonymousBob]

:whoosh:

I have no idea what this means.

Me either. I always wanted to use that smiley, though.

Nice!

Can someone tell me what means?

:whitecorner:

 

[jurb26]

This thread has reach comical level. Then again, I know that was bound to happen after last night.

 

[LBH]

I like all three a lot, but if I have to choose, Ill say Jones-Drew because he will get less touches than the other two. I also think If Leftwich is in there and healthy all year they will throw a lot more than they did last year

 

[notapplicable]

Not even real sure who said it, but the guy who said that Addai has more power than MDJ is smoking some serious ish... I'm not saying that he's a better back by any means but he's definitely got more power than Addai...

 

[veto87]

If teams thought MJD was on par with Simpson, Sayers, Sanders, and LT - why was all the hype about Bush? Why did the Colts go with Addai first? If they really thought MJD was a superstar in the making why pass on him? Why did 32 teams pass on him? Why did 27 teams pass on him twice?

Why did 16 teams pass on Emmitt Smith? Why did Terrell Davis fall to the 6th round? Why was Priest Holmes undrafted? Who cares? Anyone's opinion of MJD from a year and a half ago is probably the least relevant point to try and discredit his chances to be successful this year.Keep in mind that I'm not putting Jones-Drew on a pedestal with Simpson, Sayers, Sanders, and LT. I'm just saying I think he could easily be a top-ten fantasy RB this year.

 

[isiahcleaves]

My final thought on this thread.

If the ? is.... who do you think will "flop" compared to the production that they put up last year... then the answer is obviously MJD. Virtually every expert thinks that if you look at where MJD is ranked among RB's (14th) compared to where he finished last year (8th).

If this is indeed the ? ... then Addai is most likely to outdo his production from last year.... with Gore and MJD a close 2nd and 3rd.

If the ? is who is most likely to "flop" compared to where they are currently being drafted for fantasy football purposes... then the answer is obviously NOT MJD. While MJD's production from last year is not likely to be repeated, that is already being reflected in his ADP.

If this is indeed the ?... then MJD is most likely to outdo his ADP..... with Addai and Gore a close 2nd and 3rd.

 

[Gr00vus]

After three weeks I'm just about ready to call this one.

Switz (and JWB) strike again.

 

[duaneok66]

how was Addai one of the three choices for the OP???

 

[jurb26]

After three weeks I'm just about ready to call this one.Switz (and JWB) strike again.

No doubt, MJD crow is served.

 

[(HULK)]

After three weeks I'm just about ready to call this one.Switz (and JWB) strike again.

I still think MJD is very talented.I was VERY WRONG about how he would be utilized though.

 

[johntorn]

MJD

and its not even close!!!

 

[shadyridr]

I dont see how MJD could flop. Even if you project at a conservative 900 rush yds and 350 rec yds with 11 total TDs that puts him at RB#19, a mid tier RB2. And there's a good chance he blows those numbers away if Fred gets hurt. Obviously dont take him as a RB1 and he'll be fine.I dont see how Gore could flop unless he gets injured. Im not gonna consider injuries so Ill say that is a no.I think Addai has the biggest chance, although I still have him ranked #6. Addai has never carried the full load, Tarik Glenn's retirement is a huge loss to the Oline, and the Colts Oline has been famous over the years for not being able to run block in short yardage situations. Why do you think they pass so much around the goalline and why do you think Manning had 4 rush Tds last year? Not only cuz Manning is a God but also because they cant grind out the tough short yards to score TDs. So Addai's TD rushes might be lower than many people think.

Ironic think is I ended up drafting Addai with the 6th pick and the other 2 guys are on other teams

 

[FFdork]

I was thinking about starting a new thread, but I know there are about 15 MJD threads already, so I'll start here.

What do people think about him going forward? I imagine a lot of owners would be willing to part with him right now, but I can't decide how I feel. Obviously, he's not having the insane success he had last year, which I predicted, but just the law of averages says he has to have much better games if he's as talented as most people think. In their last game I noticed that he had something like 17 touches, and the game summary from FBG mentioned that he led the team in redzone touches.

I haven't seen a single Jax game. Further thoughts? I'm focusing on redraft here, he's obviously a buy in a dynasty IMO.

 

[tomarken]

Yeah, I was in the MJD camp (ended up with him in two leagues) and have been sorely disappointed so far. I did hit on a few other picks though (Adrian Peterson comes to mind) so owning MJD hasn't crippled my teams.

I'm not giving up on Jones-Drew yet, although he'll stay on the bench until he starts getting the ball and producing more - he's still very talented, that hasn't changed. Through three games last year, he had 153 total yards. Through three games this year, he has 156 total yards. So clearly there is time for him to turn this around and be a productive RB2.

 

[switz]

I can't see how Addai flops, barring injury, and you can't predict those.The same is true with Gore, though he already has a brken hand,MJD would be relying on scoring a tremendous number of ground TDs again to put up solid numbers which is extremely unlikely. So I would say he has the biggest flop potential. Especially looking at his ADP.

 

[switz]

Not even real sure who said it, but the guy who said that Addai has more power than MDJ is smoking some serious ish... I'm not saying that he's a better back by any means but he's definitely got more power than Addai...

That was me

 

[Gr00vus]