Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
When using any ranking system, a key thing to look at is which players that particular expert expects to significantly improve over last year, and which players they expect to drop off.
A key thing that happens over the offseason is hype. A good majority of the time, hype (one way or another) isn't justified--coachspeak, message board hype, highlight videos, etc. tend to psychologically sway people into 'groupthink', or where a certain player is ranked way ahead of where he should be (or way below). I use PPG from last year--because injuries do tend to sway final rankings a bit too much for my taste.
I'm using Jeff Pasquino's RB (non-PPR) rankings as an example. I'm not doing it to pick on Jeff (we actually spoke quite a bit on FF until I fell off the map), but I don't want to ruin FBG insider information--so I figure cherry-picking Jeff is a good way to go about it. His rankings are usually pretty consistent with what most people think--so he's a good example to use here. Jeff, don't permaban me for this, gb. Props to you for putting Brady in the second round. That takes guts, and a memory of 2005. Nicely done.
RB2: Steven Jackson (last year: RB9): He did come back strong at the end of the year, but only strong enough to finish RB9 in PPG rankings. This pick comes with danger--the OL is in better shape, but still not perfect, and to expect Jackson to leap to RB2 is a reach. Why is he ranked this high? I know Jeff's always been high on him, but the message board community here also loves Jackson. Realize this when you're drafting him.
RB18: Jamal Lewis (last year: RB6): Contrary to popular belief, Lewis isn't that old. He's on the right side of 30. Yes, he's had some woeful seasons, and broke out for the second time last year. Will he regress to the mean? Probably. Will he regress all the way to the bottom-half of starting RBs? I have serious doubts about that one. Everyone always remembers Lewis burning them in years past, but he's dropping way too far in a lot of rankings.
RB6: Marion Barber (last year: RB14): Yes, Barber was just above-average for starting RBs in the NFL last year. I think a lot of people forget this. Yes, he was splitting time, but we've seen people bumped up like this before after having a few great games in a limited role--then severely disappointing the next year. Barber is a serious risk, and has been pumped up to his absolute upside in draft position. I'm staying far away. Are you?
RB11: Reggie Bush (last year: RB19): The enigma. Will he ever run well between the tackles? If he does, and still creates space, the potential is still unlimited. I just disagree with putting him THIS high. It's going to be tough for him to match this kind of expectation.
This is obviously not everyone who's off vs. last year, but you get the idea. The idea here isn't to pick on Jeff, or say that you should draft based on how people did last year. Thinking either would be horribly wrong, and moronic. What you need to do is take into consideration WHY players are being drafted significantly different than how they performed last year. Think through each one--good reasons? Too much hype? Too much groupthink?
Working through those, and finding bargains in the process--while avoiding players who are ranked at their upside, rather than reality, can go a long way for you.
A key thing that happens over the offseason is hype. A good majority of the time, hype (one way or another) isn't justified--coachspeak, message board hype, highlight videos, etc. tend to psychologically sway people into 'groupthink', or where a certain player is ranked way ahead of where he should be (or way below). I use PPG from last year--because injuries do tend to sway final rankings a bit too much for my taste.
I'm using Jeff Pasquino's RB (non-PPR) rankings as an example. I'm not doing it to pick on Jeff (we actually spoke quite a bit on FF until I fell off the map), but I don't want to ruin FBG insider information--so I figure cherry-picking Jeff is a good way to go about it. His rankings are usually pretty consistent with what most people think--so he's a good example to use here. Jeff, don't permaban me for this, gb. Props to you for putting Brady in the second round. That takes guts, and a memory of 2005. Nicely done.
RB2: Steven Jackson (last year: RB9): He did come back strong at the end of the year, but only strong enough to finish RB9 in PPG rankings. This pick comes with danger--the OL is in better shape, but still not perfect, and to expect Jackson to leap to RB2 is a reach. Why is he ranked this high? I know Jeff's always been high on him, but the message board community here also loves Jackson. Realize this when you're drafting him.
RB18: Jamal Lewis (last year: RB6): Contrary to popular belief, Lewis isn't that old. He's on the right side of 30. Yes, he's had some woeful seasons, and broke out for the second time last year. Will he regress to the mean? Probably. Will he regress all the way to the bottom-half of starting RBs? I have serious doubts about that one. Everyone always remembers Lewis burning them in years past, but he's dropping way too far in a lot of rankings.
RB6: Marion Barber (last year: RB14): Yes, Barber was just above-average for starting RBs in the NFL last year. I think a lot of people forget this. Yes, he was splitting time, but we've seen people bumped up like this before after having a few great games in a limited role--then severely disappointing the next year. Barber is a serious risk, and has been pumped up to his absolute upside in draft position. I'm staying far away. Are you?
RB11: Reggie Bush (last year: RB19): The enigma. Will he ever run well between the tackles? If he does, and still creates space, the potential is still unlimited. I just disagree with putting him THIS high. It's going to be tough for him to match this kind of expectation.
This is obviously not everyone who's off vs. last year, but you get the idea. The idea here isn't to pick on Jeff, or say that you should draft based on how people did last year. Thinking either would be horribly wrong, and moronic. What you need to do is take into consideration WHY players are being drafted significantly different than how they performed last year. Think through each one--good reasons? Too much hype? Too much groupthink?
Working through those, and finding bargains in the process--while avoiding players who are ranked at their upside, rather than reality, can go a long way for you.
Last edited by a moderator:
