This is part of a ranking system I have used/modified over the past ten years or so. One of the most important parts is the belief that ranking clubs by yardage gained and allowed is wrong. I rank them by a number of other indicators, notably using points scored and allowed, and using historical data to back-up my reasoning.
This will be fun for me because I have watched this season without compiling so I really don't know how it will shake out. Let's get to it.
Here is the current offense and defense rankings in terms of points allowed by the last 16 super bowl champions.
YEAR.TM...O...D
---------------------------------
2005.sea..1...7*
2005.pit..9...3*
2004.nwe..4...6
2003.nwe..12..1
2002.tam..18..1
2001.nwe..6...6
2000.bal..15..1
1999.stl..1...4
1998.den..2...8
1997.den..1...7
1996.gnb..1...1
1995.dal..3...3
1994.sfo..1...6
1993.dal..2...2
1992.dal..2...5
1991.was..1...2
1990.nyg..15..1
1989.sfo..1...3
*No Super Bowl champ vacant for 2005, refs changed outcome of game
This leads to the first rule I have when ranking contenders:
The sum of their offensive and defensive rankings for true Super Bowl contenders is less than 20.
I like to refer to this sum as the magic number.
Magic numbers of 20+ of conference champs since 1990:
2003 Panthers: 25
1999 Titans: 22
1991 Bills: 21
2000 Giants: 20
All lost the Super Bowl.
Now we can list the contenders as of now:
----------
AFC:
----------
Contenders:
Chargers (1st offense, 7th defense) 1+7 = 8
Patriots (7th offense, 2nd defense) = 7+2 = 9
Ravens (12th offense, 1st defense) = 12+1 = 13
Others:
Jets (18th offense, 6th defense) 18+6 = 24
Chiefs (15th offense, 11th defense) 15+11 = 26
Colts (3rd offense, 23rd defense) 3+23 = 26
----------
NFC:
----------
Contenders:
Bears (2nd offense, 3rd defense) 2+3 = 5
Saints (5th offense, 13th defense) 5+13 = 18
Others:
Eagles (6th offense, 15th defense) 6+15 = 21
Cowboys (4th offense, 20th defense) 4+20 = 24
Seahawks (14th offense, 19th defense) 14+19 = 33
Giants (11th offense, 24th defense) 11+24 = 35
Right off the bat we can clearly see that the Bears are in fact the class of the NFC. That doesn't guarantee a super bowl berth, but I would classify the evidence as "very strong". In the Bears case, they have elite special teams which sets up their offense. That's a perfectly valid way to contend. You DO see a weaker team upset a strong one and make it to the super bowl once in a while. The 2003 Panthers come to mind. But none have as yet won it all. It appears to be too difficult a task.
--------------------------------------------------
The next stat I like is efficiency. What is efficiency? Efficiency is yards divided points (scored and allowed).
Conference Title Games and Efficiencies since 1990:
2005
pit 14.36 O, 16.52 D
den 14.90 O, 18.40 D
car 13.62 O, 17.01 D
sea 13.21 O, 18.73 D
2004
nwe 5474 yards, 416 points = 13.16 O, 4654 yards, 253 points = 18.40 D*$
pit 5157 yards, 343 points = 15.03 O, 3867 yards, 227 points = 17.04 D*
atl 4992 yards, 314 points = 15.90 O, 4954 yards, 309 points = 16.03 D*
phi 5398 yards, 376 points = 14.36 O, 4807 yards, 222 points = 21.65 D*
*all 2004 stats exclude week 17, since all 4 teams rested starters that week.
2003
ind 13.39 O, 14.92 D
nwe 15.11 O, 20.67 D$
car 16.41 O, 16.24 D
phi 14.14 O, 19.36 D**
2002
ten 14.69 O, 15.98 D
oak 14.34 O, 17.24 D
tam 15.09 O, 22.14 D$
phi 14.04 O, 21.17 D
2001
nwe 13.80 O, 20.54 D$
pit 17.24 O, 21.25 D
phi 15.17 O, 23.96 D
stl 13.78 O, 17.34 D
2000
bal 15.92 O, 25.12 D$
oak 12.32 O, 18.48 D
min 15.49 O, 15.94 D
nyg 17.13 O, 19.61 D
1999
tam 16.88 O, 19.45 D
stl 12.62 O, 20.89 D$
ten 13.86 O, 17.13 D
jax 14.66 O, 21.69 D <--"super bowl shuffle" team that made video
1998
nyj 14.21 O, 18.64 D
den 12.53 O, 17.06 D$
atl 13.22 O, 17.33 D
min 11.56 O, 17.95 D**
1997
den 12.89 O, 17.31 D$
pit 15.31 O, 16.28 D
sfo 14.40 O, 16.52 D
gnb 13.76 O, 18.09 D
1996
jax 18.51 O, 15.92 D <---2nd year team
nwe 13.30 O, 17.75 D
car 13.79 O, 23.61 D <-- 2nd year team
gnb 12.67 O, 20.96 D$
1995
ind 15.79 O, 16.44 D
pit 14.60 O, 14.78 D
gnb 14.77 O, 17.29 D
dal 13.66 O, 18.09 D$
1994
sdg 14.36 O, 17.37 D
pit 17.17 O, 20.12 D
dal 13.08 O, 18.60 D
sfo 12.39 O, 17.21 D$
1993
kan 15.36 O, 17.18 D
buf 16.65 O, 24.00 D
sfo 13.98 O, 18.01 D
dal 15.37 O, 21.83 D$
1992
buf 16.05 O, 17.51 D
mia 16.69 O, 17.32 D
dal 13.98 O, 17.60 D$
sfo 14.78 O, 21.44 D
1991
den 17.52 O, 20.83 D
buf 14.24 O, 17.94 D
det 14.47 O, 17.91 D
was 12.00 O, 20.71 D$
1990
lar 14.58 O, 17.72 D
buf 12.81 O, 18.76 D
nyg 14.77 O, 20.82 D$
sfo 17.25 O, 18.98 D
$ won super bowl
** clubs that were more efficient on offense and defense than their opponent they lost to.
A quick rundown here:
Teams that are more efficient on defense than their super bowl opponent are 10-5 over the past 15 years.
ALL teams with a defensive efficiency over 20 that made the super bowl WON the super bowl except two clubs: the 1993 Buffalo Bills (and that loss was to another team that was over 20) and the 2004 Eagles (to the Patriots who were not over 20).
Teams that are more efficient on offense than their super bowl opponent are 12-3 in the past 15 years.
When the efficiency advantages are split, the team with the offensive advantage is 5-3 in the past 15 years. So that could be added to the case that offense wins championships.
Teams that are more efficient on offense and defense than their opponent are 13-2 in conference game play. The two losses were the 1998 Vikings to the Falcons, and the 2003 Eagles to the Panthers
Teams that are more efficient on BOTH sides of the ball are 7-0 in the super bowl, a total of 20-2 adding conference title games.
If you are more efficient on offense than your opponent without regard to defense, you are 25-7 in conference title play in this time frame. Such teams are merely 7-3 from 2001 on. Such teams were 11-1 from 1994-1999. The one loss was the 98 Vikings to the Falcons.
If you are more efficient on defense than your opponent without regard to offense, you are 19-13 in conference title games in this timeframe. You are 6-4 from 2001 on.
Worst offense to win the super bowl: 15.92 (2000 Ravens)
Worst defense to win the super bowl: 17.06 (1998 Broncos)
Five of the last six super bowl champs have had a defensive efficiency over 20, the only exception was the 2004 Patriots.Lets look at the 2007 playoff teams with all of that in mind:
AFC
sdg 12.17 O, 15.92 D
bal 14.65 O, 21.02 D
ind 14.42 O, 14.76 D
nwe 14.44 O, 19.87 D
nyj 16.11 O, 17.99 D
kan 16.27 O, 16.70 D
NFC
chi 12.56 O, 18.45 D
nor 15.46 O, 15.27 D
phi 15.81 O, 16.00 D
sea 15.80 O, 15.50 D
dal 14.12 O, 14.76 D
nyg 15.21 O, 15.14 D
Here's is what I can see. The Bears have a better offensive and defensive efficiency than anyone else in the NFC. That is so strong to me. Let me repeat, teams with such an advantage are 20-2 in conference title and super bowl play in this timeframe.
But perhaps even more interesting is that the Chargers look at lot weaker than expected in the AFC. They have a defensive efficiency rating of just 15.92. The WORST defense to win a super bowl since 1990 was the Broncos, and they were at 17.02. Its not even close. I suspect the Chargers are gonna get upset at some point. The worst offense to win a Super Bowl belonged to the 2000 Ravens at 15.92 (odd how that number popped up again). Unless new ground is broken, there are only two clubs in the AFC that fit the parameters to win the Super Bowl - the Ravens and Patriots.
------------------------------
Finally, let's look at something else. Points differential is the difference between points scored and allowed. The club with the largest differential in the super bowl has won it every time in this timeframe except three cases. Two cases are the 1990 Giants and 2001 Patriots. Interestingly, BOTH of those clubs were coached by Bill Belichick. I know some will say Belichick was not the head coach of the Giants at that time but Belichick's defensive game plan from 1990 is hanging in the hall of fame. The third case was the 2005 Super Bowl, but even that is a special case as the refs made several horrible calls that changed the outcome of the game, to the point where fans were upset for weeks and the NFL had to issue an official statement to try to tell everyone "the game was properly officiated". It was such a mess that we just leave the Super Bowl XL title vacant. To clarify, this doesn't count for ALL playoff games, just the super bowl.
differentials of the 2007 playoff clubs:
AFC:
sdg +189
bal +152
nwe +148
ind +67
nyj +21
kan +16
NFC
chi +172
nor +91
dal +75
phi +70
sea -6
nyg -7
Amazingly, TWO NFC clubs have been outscored by their opponents. I'm not sure if we've ever seen a conference weaker in this regard, with only 4 playoff teams outscoring their opponents.
-------------------
SUMMARY
-------------------
The data suggests that there are only 3 teams that fit all the criteria for winning a Super Bowl: The Patriots, Ravens, and Bears. If anyone else wins it, its really going against fundamental data that has been in place since 1990. Why could this be the year for an upset? Well, usually every bracket has like 2-3 elite teams. But this year the entire NFC bracket is awful except for the Bears. That means if the Bears slip up and don't make the Super Bowl, it will give one of the other 5 mediocre teams a crack. And then there's a chance for the bizarre. Although its more likely in that case you get a mismatch like Patriots-Giants where the Patriots blow them out by 35.
One final note: I understand full-well as I am doing this that vacating the Super Bowl XL title might look like bias. Some are going to say its because I'm a Browns fan, or its because I'm trying to protect data or something silly. But it is not. That game was such a mess that I have to do this. The Super Bowl XL title will never be officially recognized. The Steelers still have only 4 titles, the Seahawks still have none, and the title is vacant.
My Super Bowl picks:
Patriots over Bears
Why the Patriots? The data suggests only the Ravens and Patriots are candidates to win the Super Bowl from the AFC. I defer not to the data at this point but Belichick's fantastic record outcoching opponents and lifting teams beyond this data.
Why the Bears? The data suggests the Bears should win the NFC. They hold significant statisical edges over everyone else in their conference.
This will be fun for me because I have watched this season without compiling so I really don't know how it will shake out. Let's get to it.
Here is the current offense and defense rankings in terms of points allowed by the last 16 super bowl champions.
YEAR.TM...O...D
---------------------------------
2005.sea..1...7*
2005.pit..9...3*
2004.nwe..4...6
2003.nwe..12..1
2002.tam..18..1
2001.nwe..6...6
2000.bal..15..1
1999.stl..1...4
1998.den..2...8
1997.den..1...7
1996.gnb..1...1
1995.dal..3...3
1994.sfo..1...6
1993.dal..2...2
1992.dal..2...5
1991.was..1...2
1990.nyg..15..1
1989.sfo..1...3
*No Super Bowl champ vacant for 2005, refs changed outcome of game
This leads to the first rule I have when ranking contenders:
The sum of their offensive and defensive rankings for true Super Bowl contenders is less than 20.
I like to refer to this sum as the magic number.
Magic numbers of 20+ of conference champs since 1990:
2003 Panthers: 25
1999 Titans: 22
1991 Bills: 21
2000 Giants: 20
All lost the Super Bowl.
Now we can list the contenders as of now:
----------
AFC:
----------
Contenders:
Chargers (1st offense, 7th defense) 1+7 = 8
Patriots (7th offense, 2nd defense) = 7+2 = 9
Ravens (12th offense, 1st defense) = 12+1 = 13
Others:
Jets (18th offense, 6th defense) 18+6 = 24
Chiefs (15th offense, 11th defense) 15+11 = 26
Colts (3rd offense, 23rd defense) 3+23 = 26
----------
NFC:
----------
Contenders:
Bears (2nd offense, 3rd defense) 2+3 = 5
Saints (5th offense, 13th defense) 5+13 = 18
Others:
Eagles (6th offense, 15th defense) 6+15 = 21
Cowboys (4th offense, 20th defense) 4+20 = 24
Seahawks (14th offense, 19th defense) 14+19 = 33
Giants (11th offense, 24th defense) 11+24 = 35
Right off the bat we can clearly see that the Bears are in fact the class of the NFC. That doesn't guarantee a super bowl berth, but I would classify the evidence as "very strong". In the Bears case, they have elite special teams which sets up their offense. That's a perfectly valid way to contend. You DO see a weaker team upset a strong one and make it to the super bowl once in a while. The 2003 Panthers come to mind. But none have as yet won it all. It appears to be too difficult a task.
--------------------------------------------------
The next stat I like is efficiency. What is efficiency? Efficiency is yards divided points (scored and allowed).
Conference Title Games and Efficiencies since 1990:
2005
pit 14.36 O, 16.52 D
den 14.90 O, 18.40 D
car 13.62 O, 17.01 D
sea 13.21 O, 18.73 D
2004
nwe 5474 yards, 416 points = 13.16 O, 4654 yards, 253 points = 18.40 D*$
pit 5157 yards, 343 points = 15.03 O, 3867 yards, 227 points = 17.04 D*
atl 4992 yards, 314 points = 15.90 O, 4954 yards, 309 points = 16.03 D*
phi 5398 yards, 376 points = 14.36 O, 4807 yards, 222 points = 21.65 D*
*all 2004 stats exclude week 17, since all 4 teams rested starters that week.
2003
ind 13.39 O, 14.92 D
nwe 15.11 O, 20.67 D$
car 16.41 O, 16.24 D
phi 14.14 O, 19.36 D**
2002
ten 14.69 O, 15.98 D
oak 14.34 O, 17.24 D
tam 15.09 O, 22.14 D$
phi 14.04 O, 21.17 D
2001
nwe 13.80 O, 20.54 D$
pit 17.24 O, 21.25 D
phi 15.17 O, 23.96 D
stl 13.78 O, 17.34 D
2000
bal 15.92 O, 25.12 D$
oak 12.32 O, 18.48 D
min 15.49 O, 15.94 D
nyg 17.13 O, 19.61 D
1999
tam 16.88 O, 19.45 D
stl 12.62 O, 20.89 D$
ten 13.86 O, 17.13 D
jax 14.66 O, 21.69 D <--"super bowl shuffle" team that made video
1998
nyj 14.21 O, 18.64 D
den 12.53 O, 17.06 D$
atl 13.22 O, 17.33 D
min 11.56 O, 17.95 D**
1997
den 12.89 O, 17.31 D$
pit 15.31 O, 16.28 D
sfo 14.40 O, 16.52 D
gnb 13.76 O, 18.09 D
1996
jax 18.51 O, 15.92 D <---2nd year team
nwe 13.30 O, 17.75 D
car 13.79 O, 23.61 D <-- 2nd year team
gnb 12.67 O, 20.96 D$
1995
ind 15.79 O, 16.44 D
pit 14.60 O, 14.78 D
gnb 14.77 O, 17.29 D
dal 13.66 O, 18.09 D$
1994
sdg 14.36 O, 17.37 D
pit 17.17 O, 20.12 D
dal 13.08 O, 18.60 D
sfo 12.39 O, 17.21 D$
1993
kan 15.36 O, 17.18 D
buf 16.65 O, 24.00 D
sfo 13.98 O, 18.01 D
dal 15.37 O, 21.83 D$
1992
buf 16.05 O, 17.51 D
mia 16.69 O, 17.32 D
dal 13.98 O, 17.60 D$
sfo 14.78 O, 21.44 D
1991
den 17.52 O, 20.83 D
buf 14.24 O, 17.94 D
det 14.47 O, 17.91 D
was 12.00 O, 20.71 D$
1990
lar 14.58 O, 17.72 D
buf 12.81 O, 18.76 D
nyg 14.77 O, 20.82 D$
sfo 17.25 O, 18.98 D
$ won super bowl
** clubs that were more efficient on offense and defense than their opponent they lost to.
A quick rundown here:
Teams that are more efficient on defense than their super bowl opponent are 10-5 over the past 15 years.
ALL teams with a defensive efficiency over 20 that made the super bowl WON the super bowl except two clubs: the 1993 Buffalo Bills (and that loss was to another team that was over 20) and the 2004 Eagles (to the Patriots who were not over 20).
Teams that are more efficient on offense than their super bowl opponent are 12-3 in the past 15 years.
When the efficiency advantages are split, the team with the offensive advantage is 5-3 in the past 15 years. So that could be added to the case that offense wins championships.
Teams that are more efficient on offense and defense than their opponent are 13-2 in conference game play. The two losses were the 1998 Vikings to the Falcons, and the 2003 Eagles to the Panthers
Teams that are more efficient on BOTH sides of the ball are 7-0 in the super bowl, a total of 20-2 adding conference title games.
If you are more efficient on offense than your opponent without regard to defense, you are 25-7 in conference title play in this time frame. Such teams are merely 7-3 from 2001 on. Such teams were 11-1 from 1994-1999. The one loss was the 98 Vikings to the Falcons.
If you are more efficient on defense than your opponent without regard to offense, you are 19-13 in conference title games in this timeframe. You are 6-4 from 2001 on.
Worst offense to win the super bowl: 15.92 (2000 Ravens)
Worst defense to win the super bowl: 17.06 (1998 Broncos)
Five of the last six super bowl champs have had a defensive efficiency over 20, the only exception was the 2004 Patriots.Lets look at the 2007 playoff teams with all of that in mind:
AFC
sdg 12.17 O, 15.92 D
bal 14.65 O, 21.02 D
ind 14.42 O, 14.76 D
nwe 14.44 O, 19.87 D
nyj 16.11 O, 17.99 D
kan 16.27 O, 16.70 D
NFC
chi 12.56 O, 18.45 D
nor 15.46 O, 15.27 D
phi 15.81 O, 16.00 D
sea 15.80 O, 15.50 D
dal 14.12 O, 14.76 D
nyg 15.21 O, 15.14 D
Here's is what I can see. The Bears have a better offensive and defensive efficiency than anyone else in the NFC. That is so strong to me. Let me repeat, teams with such an advantage are 20-2 in conference title and super bowl play in this timeframe.
But perhaps even more interesting is that the Chargers look at lot weaker than expected in the AFC. They have a defensive efficiency rating of just 15.92. The WORST defense to win a super bowl since 1990 was the Broncos, and they were at 17.02. Its not even close. I suspect the Chargers are gonna get upset at some point. The worst offense to win a Super Bowl belonged to the 2000 Ravens at 15.92 (odd how that number popped up again). Unless new ground is broken, there are only two clubs in the AFC that fit the parameters to win the Super Bowl - the Ravens and Patriots.
------------------------------
Finally, let's look at something else. Points differential is the difference between points scored and allowed. The club with the largest differential in the super bowl has won it every time in this timeframe except three cases. Two cases are the 1990 Giants and 2001 Patriots. Interestingly, BOTH of those clubs were coached by Bill Belichick. I know some will say Belichick was not the head coach of the Giants at that time but Belichick's defensive game plan from 1990 is hanging in the hall of fame. The third case was the 2005 Super Bowl, but even that is a special case as the refs made several horrible calls that changed the outcome of the game, to the point where fans were upset for weeks and the NFL had to issue an official statement to try to tell everyone "the game was properly officiated". It was such a mess that we just leave the Super Bowl XL title vacant. To clarify, this doesn't count for ALL playoff games, just the super bowl.
differentials of the 2007 playoff clubs:
AFC:
sdg +189
bal +152
nwe +148
ind +67
nyj +21
kan +16
NFC
chi +172
nor +91
dal +75
phi +70
sea -6
nyg -7
Amazingly, TWO NFC clubs have been outscored by their opponents. I'm not sure if we've ever seen a conference weaker in this regard, with only 4 playoff teams outscoring their opponents.
-------------------
SUMMARY
-------------------
The data suggests that there are only 3 teams that fit all the criteria for winning a Super Bowl: The Patriots, Ravens, and Bears. If anyone else wins it, its really going against fundamental data that has been in place since 1990. Why could this be the year for an upset? Well, usually every bracket has like 2-3 elite teams. But this year the entire NFC bracket is awful except for the Bears. That means if the Bears slip up and don't make the Super Bowl, it will give one of the other 5 mediocre teams a crack. And then there's a chance for the bizarre. Although its more likely in that case you get a mismatch like Patriots-Giants where the Patriots blow them out by 35.
One final note: I understand full-well as I am doing this that vacating the Super Bowl XL title might look like bias. Some are going to say its because I'm a Browns fan, or its because I'm trying to protect data or something silly. But it is not. That game was such a mess that I have to do this. The Super Bowl XL title will never be officially recognized. The Steelers still have only 4 titles, the Seahawks still have none, and the title is vacant.
My Super Bowl picks:
Patriots over Bears
Why the Patriots? The data suggests only the Ravens and Patriots are candidates to win the Super Bowl from the AFC. I defer not to the data at this point but Belichick's fantastic record outcoching opponents and lifting teams beyond this data.
Why the Bears? The data suggests the Bears should win the NFC. They hold significant statisical edges over everyone else in their conference.
Last edited by a moderator:
I agree. That's a tremendous piece of work, but is definitely overshadowed by the flaky Superbowl XL hang-up. The weakness of that bizarre stance takes away from the validity of the rest of the work.
I agree. That's a tremendous piece of work, but is definitely overshadowed by the flaky Superbowl XL hang-up. The weakness of that bizarre stance takes away from the validity of the rest of the work.
I agree. That's a tremendous piece of work, but is definitely overshadowed by the flaky Superbowl XL hang-up. The weakness of that bizarre stance takes away from the validity of the rest of the work.
Indy's D in the playoffs is not the same that allowed e.g. Travis Henry gash them for 135 yards.Maybe they benefited from being 'thrown under the bus'
