Pai Mei
Footballguy
This is part of a ranking system I have used/modified over the past ten years or so. One of the most important parts is the belief that ranking clubs by yardage gained and allowed is wrong. I rank them by a number of other indicators, notably using points scored and allowed, and using historical data to back-up my reasoning.
This will be fun for me because I have watched this season without compiling so I really don't know how it will shake out. Let's get to it.
Here is the current offense and defense rankings in terms of points allowed by the last 17 super bowl champions.
2007 edition: Predicted Patriots over Bears
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=299811
2006 edition: Predicted Colts over Seahawks
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=213704
YEAR.TM...O...D
---------------------------------
2006 ind..3...23
2005.sea..1...7*
2005.pit..9...3*
2004.nwe..4...6
2003.nwe..12..1
2002.tam..18..1
2001.nwe..6...6
2000.bal..15..1
1999.stl..1...4
1998.den..2...8
1997.den..1...7
1996.gnb..1...1
1995.dal..3...3
1994.sfo..1...6
1993.dal..2...2
1992.dal..2...5
1991.was..1...2
1990.nyg..15..1
1989.sfo..1...3
*No Super Bowl champ vacant for 2005, refs changed outcome of game
A major rule was finally shattered last year:
The sum of their offensive and defensive rankings for true Super Bowl contenders is less than 20.
I like to refer to this sum as "the magic number".
The Indianapolis Colts last year were the first team to break through with a magic number greater than 20. They won it all with a magic number of 26. The y had the #3 offense but just the #23 defense. A lot of people give credit to Colts safety Bob Sanders for making such an incredible impact later in the year, which would render the overall defensive season stats meaningless.
Magic numbers of 20+ of conference champs since 1990:
2006 Colts: 26
2003 Panthers: 25
1999 Titans: 22
1991 Bills: 21
2000 Giants: 20
Only the Colts won the Super Bowl.
It could be that this is an outlier. Or it could be that things are changing in the NFL in some way. The fact that we can point to a Bob Sanders having a large impact might have great meaning, or none at all. In the end, I still like going with the idea of looking at a basket of indicators.
Now we can list the contenders as of now:
----------
AFC:
----------
Contenders:
Colts (3rd offense, 1st defense) 3+1 = 4
Patriots (1st offense, 4th defense) 1+4=5
Chargers (5th offense, 5th defense) 5+5 = 10
Steelers (9th offense, 2nd defense) 9+2 = 11
Jaguars (6th offense, 10th defense) 6+10 = 16
Others:
Titans (22nd offense, 8th defense) 22+8 = 30
----------
NFC:
----------
Contenders:
Packers (4th offense, 6th defense) 4+6 = 10
Cowboys (2nd offense, 13th defense) 2+13 = 15
Seahawks (9th offense, 6th defense) 9+6 = 15
Others:
Buccaneers (18th offense, 3rd defense) 18+3 = 21
Redskins (18th offense, 11th defense) 18+11 = 29
Giants (14th offense, 17th defense) 14+17 = 31
What this suggests is that there are two team above the rest - the Colts and Patriots.
--------------------------------------------------
The next stat I like is efficiency. What is efficiency? Efficiency is yards divided points (scored and allowed).
Conference Title Games and Efficiencies since 1990:
2006 AFC
sdg 12.17 O, 15.92 D
bal 14.65 O, 21.02 D
ind 14.42 O, 14.76 D$
nwe 14.44 O, 19.87 D
nyj 16.11 O, 17.99 D
kan 16.27 O, 16.70 D
2006 NFC
chi 12.56 O, 18.45 D**
nor 15.46 O, 15.27 D
phi 15.81 O, 16.00 D
sea 15.80 O, 15.50 D
dal 14.12 O, 14.76 D
nyg 15.21 O, 15.14 D
2005
pit 14.36 O, 16.52 D
den 14.90 O, 18.40 D
car 13.62 O, 17.01 D
sea 13.21 O, 18.73 D
2004
nwe 5474 yards, 416 points = 13.16 O, 4654 yards, 253 points = 18.40 D*$
pit 5157 yards, 343 points = 15.03 O, 3867 yards, 227 points = 17.04 D*
atl 4992 yards, 314 points = 15.90 O, 4954 yards, 309 points = 16.03 D*
phi 5398 yards, 376 points = 14.36 O, 4807 yards, 222 points = 21.65 D*
*all 2004 stats exclude week 17, since all 4 teams rested starters that week.
2003
ind 13.39 O, 14.92 D
nwe 15.11 O, 20.67 D$
car 16.41 O, 16.24 D
phi 14.14 O, 19.36 D**
2002
ten 14.69 O, 15.98 D
oak 14.34 O, 17.24 D
tam 15.09 O, 22.14 D$
phi 14.04 O, 21.17 D
2001
nwe 13.80 O, 20.54 D$
pit 17.24 O, 21.25 D
phi 15.17 O, 23.96 D
stl 13.78 O, 17.34 D
2000
bal 15.92 O, 25.12 D$
oak 12.32 O, 18.48 D
min 15.49 O, 15.94 D
nyg 17.13 O, 19.61 D
1999
tam 16.88 O, 19.45 D
stl 12.62 O, 20.89 D$
ten 13.86 O, 17.13 D
jax 14.66 O, 21.69 D <--"super bowl shuffle" team that made video
1998
nyj 14.21 O, 18.64 D
den 12.53 O, 17.06 D$
atl 13.22 O, 17.33 D
min 11.56 O, 17.95 D**
1997
den 12.89 O, 17.31 D$
pit 15.31 O, 16.28 D
sfo 14.40 O, 16.52 D
gnb 13.76 O, 18.09 D
1996
jax 18.51 O, 15.92 D <---2nd year team
nwe 13.30 O, 17.75 D
car 13.79 O, 23.61 D <-- 2nd year team
gnb 12.67 O, 20.96 D$
1995
ind 15.79 O, 16.44 D
pit 14.60 O, 14.78 D
gnb 14.77 O, 17.29 D
dal 13.66 O, 18.09 D$
1994
sdg 14.36 O, 17.37 D
pit 17.17 O, 20.12 D
dal 13.08 O, 18.60 D
sfo 12.39 O, 17.21 D$
1993
kan 15.36 O, 17.18 D
buf 16.65 O, 24.00 D
sfo 13.98 O, 18.01 D
dal 15.37 O, 21.83 D$
1992
buf 16.05 O, 17.51 D
mia 16.69 O, 17.32 D
dal 13.98 O, 17.60 D$
sfo 14.78 O, 21.44 D
1991
den 17.52 O, 20.83 D
buf 14.24 O, 17.94 D
det 14.47 O, 17.91 D
was 12.00 O, 20.71 D$
1990
lar 14.58 O, 17.72 D
buf 12.81 O, 18.76 D
nyg 14.77 O, 20.82 D$
sfo 17.25 O, 18.98 D
$ won super bowl
** clubs that were more efficient on offense and defense than their opponent they lost to.
A quick rundown here:
Teams that are more efficient on defense than their super bowl opponent are 10-6 over the past 16 years.
ALL teams with a defensive efficiency over 20 that made the super bowl WON the super bowl except two clubs: the 1993 Buffalo Bills (and that loss was to another team that was over 20) and the 2004 Eagles (to the Patriots who were not over 20).
Teams that are more efficient on offense than their super bowl opponent are 12-4 in the past 16 years.
When the efficiency advantages are split, the team with the offensive advantage is 5-3 in the past 15 years. So that could be added to the case that offense wins championships.
Teams that are more efficient on offense and defense than their opponent are 14-2 in conference game play. The two losses were the 1998 Vikings to the Falcons, and the 2003 Eagles to the Panthers
Teams that are more efficient on BOTH sides of the ball are 7-1 in the super bowl, a total of 21-3 adding conference title games. The only super bowl loss was in 2006 when the Bears lost to the Colts.
If you are more efficient on offense than your opponent without regard to defense, you are 27-7 in conference title play in this time frame. Such teams are 9-3 from 2001 on. Such teams were 11-1 from 1994-1999. The one loss was the 98 Vikings to the Falcons.
If you are more efficient on defense than your opponent without regard to offense, you are 20-14 in conference title games in this timeframe. You are 7-5 from 2001 on.
Worst offense to win the super bowl: 15.92 (2000 Ravens)
Worst defense to win the super bowl: 14.76 (2006 Colts) - prior to that was 17.06 (1998 Broncos)Lets look at the 2008 playoff teams with all of that in mind:
AFC
nwe 11.38 O, 18.08 D
ind 13.06 O, 17.70 D
sdg 12.66 O, 19.00 D
pit 14.21 O, 16.75 D
jax 14.32 O, 17.32 D
ten 17.23 O, 16.52 D
NFC
dal 13.27 O, 16.13 D
gnb 13.93 O, 17.98 D
sea 14.76 O, 18.74 D
tam 16.32 O, 17.26 D
nyg 14.81 O, 14.90 D
was 16.45 O, 16.39 D
Let's look at the Patriots. Their defensive numbers are good but no-one is over 20 this year on defense. Its their offensive efficiency that really sticks out. An OE of 11.38 is superior to any OE on the list. The previous best was the 1998 Vikings 11.56. Its notable to this system that the Patriots have a better OE and DE than the Colts. They would meet in the AFC title game. Such teams are 14-2 in that situation. Its surprising that the best defense according to this numbers this year belongs to the Chargers. Looking closer at that number, the Chargers give up a lot more yards than other playoff teams, but they've given up about the same number of points as the best. The NFC is a lot more mysterious. You really focus on the Cowboys, Packers, and Seahawks. The Cowboys have the best OE in the field. The Seahawks have the best DE. The system seems to favor offense. For example teams with the better OE are 27-7 in conference game play, which teams with a better DE are 20-14.
------------------------------
Finally, let's look at something else. Points differential is the difference between points scored and allowed. The club with the largest differential in the super bowl is 37-4. Through the first 35 super bowls, this stat was 34-1. Starting with the Patriots upset of the Rams in super bowl 36, this stat is 3-3.
Super Bowls where this stat has failed:
1990: Giants over Bills
2001: Patriots over Rams
2005: Steelers / Seahawks
2006: Colts over Bears
To clarify, this doesn't count for ALL playoff games, just the super bowl.
The 2008 playoff numbers:
AFC
nwe +315
ind +188
sdg +128
pit +124
jax +107
ten +4
NFC
dal +130
gnb +144
sea +102
tam +64
nyg +22
was +24
The Patriots have the edge here.
-------------------
SUMMARY
-------------------
The "real" super bowl here should be a potential AFC title game between the Patriots and Colts. They are ranked #1 or #2 in almost every category in the system. In the NFC, the Cowboys offense is a cut above. However, the injury to Terrell Owens is a concern. He suffered a high ankle sprain, and if he is not 100%, it could drop the Cowboys' offense just enough to make this thing murkier. The Packers or Seahawks could surprise in that case. The system suggests that for this tournament, both the Patriots and Cowboys happen to be worthy of the #1 seed in each conference, and should meet in Super Bowl 42.
Prediction:
Patriots over Cowboys
This will be fun for me because I have watched this season without compiling so I really don't know how it will shake out. Let's get to it.
Here is the current offense and defense rankings in terms of points allowed by the last 17 super bowl champions.
2007 edition: Predicted Patriots over Bears
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=299811
2006 edition: Predicted Colts over Seahawks
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=213704
YEAR.TM...O...D
---------------------------------
2006 ind..3...23
2005.sea..1...7*
2005.pit..9...3*
2004.nwe..4...6
2003.nwe..12..1
2002.tam..18..1
2001.nwe..6...6
2000.bal..15..1
1999.stl..1...4
1998.den..2...8
1997.den..1...7
1996.gnb..1...1
1995.dal..3...3
1994.sfo..1...6
1993.dal..2...2
1992.dal..2...5
1991.was..1...2
1990.nyg..15..1
1989.sfo..1...3
*No Super Bowl champ vacant for 2005, refs changed outcome of game
A major rule was finally shattered last year:
The sum of their offensive and defensive rankings for true Super Bowl contenders is less than 20.
I like to refer to this sum as "the magic number".
The Indianapolis Colts last year were the first team to break through with a magic number greater than 20. They won it all with a magic number of 26. The y had the #3 offense but just the #23 defense. A lot of people give credit to Colts safety Bob Sanders for making such an incredible impact later in the year, which would render the overall defensive season stats meaningless.
Magic numbers of 20+ of conference champs since 1990:
2006 Colts: 26
2003 Panthers: 25
1999 Titans: 22
1991 Bills: 21
2000 Giants: 20
Only the Colts won the Super Bowl.
It could be that this is an outlier. Or it could be that things are changing in the NFL in some way. The fact that we can point to a Bob Sanders having a large impact might have great meaning, or none at all. In the end, I still like going with the idea of looking at a basket of indicators.
Now we can list the contenders as of now:
----------
AFC:
----------
Contenders:
Colts (3rd offense, 1st defense) 3+1 = 4
Patriots (1st offense, 4th defense) 1+4=5
Chargers (5th offense, 5th defense) 5+5 = 10
Steelers (9th offense, 2nd defense) 9+2 = 11
Jaguars (6th offense, 10th defense) 6+10 = 16
Others:
Titans (22nd offense, 8th defense) 22+8 = 30
----------
NFC:
----------
Contenders:
Packers (4th offense, 6th defense) 4+6 = 10
Cowboys (2nd offense, 13th defense) 2+13 = 15
Seahawks (9th offense, 6th defense) 9+6 = 15
Others:
Buccaneers (18th offense, 3rd defense) 18+3 = 21
Redskins (18th offense, 11th defense) 18+11 = 29
Giants (14th offense, 17th defense) 14+17 = 31
What this suggests is that there are two team above the rest - the Colts and Patriots.
--------------------------------------------------
The next stat I like is efficiency. What is efficiency? Efficiency is yards divided points (scored and allowed).
Conference Title Games and Efficiencies since 1990:
2006 AFC
sdg 12.17 O, 15.92 D
bal 14.65 O, 21.02 D
ind 14.42 O, 14.76 D$
nwe 14.44 O, 19.87 D
nyj 16.11 O, 17.99 D
kan 16.27 O, 16.70 D
2006 NFC
chi 12.56 O, 18.45 D**
nor 15.46 O, 15.27 D
phi 15.81 O, 16.00 D
sea 15.80 O, 15.50 D
dal 14.12 O, 14.76 D
nyg 15.21 O, 15.14 D
2005
pit 14.36 O, 16.52 D
den 14.90 O, 18.40 D
car 13.62 O, 17.01 D
sea 13.21 O, 18.73 D
2004
nwe 5474 yards, 416 points = 13.16 O, 4654 yards, 253 points = 18.40 D*$
pit 5157 yards, 343 points = 15.03 O, 3867 yards, 227 points = 17.04 D*
atl 4992 yards, 314 points = 15.90 O, 4954 yards, 309 points = 16.03 D*
phi 5398 yards, 376 points = 14.36 O, 4807 yards, 222 points = 21.65 D*
*all 2004 stats exclude week 17, since all 4 teams rested starters that week.
2003
ind 13.39 O, 14.92 D
nwe 15.11 O, 20.67 D$
car 16.41 O, 16.24 D
phi 14.14 O, 19.36 D**
2002
ten 14.69 O, 15.98 D
oak 14.34 O, 17.24 D
tam 15.09 O, 22.14 D$
phi 14.04 O, 21.17 D
2001
nwe 13.80 O, 20.54 D$
pit 17.24 O, 21.25 D
phi 15.17 O, 23.96 D
stl 13.78 O, 17.34 D
2000
bal 15.92 O, 25.12 D$
oak 12.32 O, 18.48 D
min 15.49 O, 15.94 D
nyg 17.13 O, 19.61 D
1999
tam 16.88 O, 19.45 D
stl 12.62 O, 20.89 D$
ten 13.86 O, 17.13 D
jax 14.66 O, 21.69 D <--"super bowl shuffle" team that made video
1998
nyj 14.21 O, 18.64 D
den 12.53 O, 17.06 D$
atl 13.22 O, 17.33 D
min 11.56 O, 17.95 D**
1997
den 12.89 O, 17.31 D$
pit 15.31 O, 16.28 D
sfo 14.40 O, 16.52 D
gnb 13.76 O, 18.09 D
1996
jax 18.51 O, 15.92 D <---2nd year team
nwe 13.30 O, 17.75 D
car 13.79 O, 23.61 D <-- 2nd year team
gnb 12.67 O, 20.96 D$
1995
ind 15.79 O, 16.44 D
pit 14.60 O, 14.78 D
gnb 14.77 O, 17.29 D
dal 13.66 O, 18.09 D$
1994
sdg 14.36 O, 17.37 D
pit 17.17 O, 20.12 D
dal 13.08 O, 18.60 D
sfo 12.39 O, 17.21 D$
1993
kan 15.36 O, 17.18 D
buf 16.65 O, 24.00 D
sfo 13.98 O, 18.01 D
dal 15.37 O, 21.83 D$
1992
buf 16.05 O, 17.51 D
mia 16.69 O, 17.32 D
dal 13.98 O, 17.60 D$
sfo 14.78 O, 21.44 D
1991
den 17.52 O, 20.83 D
buf 14.24 O, 17.94 D
det 14.47 O, 17.91 D
was 12.00 O, 20.71 D$
1990
lar 14.58 O, 17.72 D
buf 12.81 O, 18.76 D
nyg 14.77 O, 20.82 D$
sfo 17.25 O, 18.98 D
$ won super bowl
** clubs that were more efficient on offense and defense than their opponent they lost to.
A quick rundown here:
Teams that are more efficient on defense than their super bowl opponent are 10-6 over the past 16 years.
ALL teams with a defensive efficiency over 20 that made the super bowl WON the super bowl except two clubs: the 1993 Buffalo Bills (and that loss was to another team that was over 20) and the 2004 Eagles (to the Patriots who were not over 20).
Teams that are more efficient on offense than their super bowl opponent are 12-4 in the past 16 years.
When the efficiency advantages are split, the team with the offensive advantage is 5-3 in the past 15 years. So that could be added to the case that offense wins championships.
Teams that are more efficient on offense and defense than their opponent are 14-2 in conference game play. The two losses were the 1998 Vikings to the Falcons, and the 2003 Eagles to the Panthers
Teams that are more efficient on BOTH sides of the ball are 7-1 in the super bowl, a total of 21-3 adding conference title games. The only super bowl loss was in 2006 when the Bears lost to the Colts.
If you are more efficient on offense than your opponent without regard to defense, you are 27-7 in conference title play in this time frame. Such teams are 9-3 from 2001 on. Such teams were 11-1 from 1994-1999. The one loss was the 98 Vikings to the Falcons.
If you are more efficient on defense than your opponent without regard to offense, you are 20-14 in conference title games in this timeframe. You are 7-5 from 2001 on.
Worst offense to win the super bowl: 15.92 (2000 Ravens)
Worst defense to win the super bowl: 14.76 (2006 Colts) - prior to that was 17.06 (1998 Broncos)Lets look at the 2008 playoff teams with all of that in mind:
AFC
nwe 11.38 O, 18.08 D
ind 13.06 O, 17.70 D
sdg 12.66 O, 19.00 D
pit 14.21 O, 16.75 D
jax 14.32 O, 17.32 D
ten 17.23 O, 16.52 D
NFC
dal 13.27 O, 16.13 D
gnb 13.93 O, 17.98 D
sea 14.76 O, 18.74 D
tam 16.32 O, 17.26 D
nyg 14.81 O, 14.90 D
was 16.45 O, 16.39 D
Let's look at the Patriots. Their defensive numbers are good but no-one is over 20 this year on defense. Its their offensive efficiency that really sticks out. An OE of 11.38 is superior to any OE on the list. The previous best was the 1998 Vikings 11.56. Its notable to this system that the Patriots have a better OE and DE than the Colts. They would meet in the AFC title game. Such teams are 14-2 in that situation. Its surprising that the best defense according to this numbers this year belongs to the Chargers. Looking closer at that number, the Chargers give up a lot more yards than other playoff teams, but they've given up about the same number of points as the best. The NFC is a lot more mysterious. You really focus on the Cowboys, Packers, and Seahawks. The Cowboys have the best OE in the field. The Seahawks have the best DE. The system seems to favor offense. For example teams with the better OE are 27-7 in conference game play, which teams with a better DE are 20-14.
------------------------------
Finally, let's look at something else. Points differential is the difference between points scored and allowed. The club with the largest differential in the super bowl is 37-4. Through the first 35 super bowls, this stat was 34-1. Starting with the Patriots upset of the Rams in super bowl 36, this stat is 3-3.
Super Bowls where this stat has failed:
1990: Giants over Bills
2001: Patriots over Rams
2005: Steelers / Seahawks
2006: Colts over Bears
To clarify, this doesn't count for ALL playoff games, just the super bowl.
The 2008 playoff numbers:
AFC
nwe +315
ind +188
sdg +128
pit +124
jax +107
ten +4
NFC
dal +130
gnb +144
sea +102
tam +64
nyg +22
was +24
The Patriots have the edge here.
-------------------
SUMMARY
-------------------
The "real" super bowl here should be a potential AFC title game between the Patriots and Colts. They are ranked #1 or #2 in almost every category in the system. In the NFC, the Cowboys offense is a cut above. However, the injury to Terrell Owens is a concern. He suffered a high ankle sprain, and if he is not 100%, it could drop the Cowboys' offense just enough to make this thing murkier. The Packers or Seahawks could surprise in that case. The system suggests that for this tournament, both the Patriots and Cowboys happen to be worthy of the #1 seed in each conference, and should meet in Super Bowl 42.
Prediction:
Patriots over Cowboys
