My "3rd Place" theory (1 Viewer)

[jamny]

This is something I have used for a while now that has turned out good results in baseball leagues. You are basically trying to come in 3rd in every category. If you do that, you are almost certain to win your league or at least come in the money. This works especially well when it's a keeper league. I have one league where we keep 6 and it's a little tougher to work out when drafting, but in my other, where we keep 13, it works very well. I've never tried it in a non-keeper redraft league.

Take the last 3 or 4 or 5 year standings (or more if you want). Take the 3rd place totals in each category and average them out by the number of years. This will give you a target goal for each category. You don't want to be in first in any category. If you do that, you are doing it at a sacrifice to another category. More often than not, the first place of a category is well ahead of the pack. Very often the 2nd place is battling with the 1st. Don't be either one of these. 3rd is very often quite a distance back. Not a problem for the points you're getting and the ability to use your resources to get to 3rd in other categories.

It's great with keeper leagues because you can calculate beforehand what you need going in. I don't see why it wouldn't work with re-draft either as a guide to what to shoot for. Chances are you will excel in one or two categories and be in first or second to make up for a slip in one or two others.

But shoot for 3rd. 1st place in a category is for suckers when it comes at the expense of other categories. It's all about balance.

 

[Mentos]

Yeah, I agree. You don't need to be in 1st place in any category to win the league. Of course, I haven't played roto style since 2005 so maybe I don't know what the heck I am talking about.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

This is only for roto leagues? What about head-to-head?

 

[jamny]

This is only for roto leagues? What about head-to-head?

I haven't played head-to-head in years. This is all based on year end totals so while it would help to see if your team is balanced the week to week fluctuations couldn't be predicted.

 

[Mentos]

This is only for roto leagues? What about head-to-head?

I haven't played head-to-head in years. This is all based on year end totals so while it would help to see if your team is balanced the week to week fluctuations couldn't be predicted.

I am trying to get back into roto style. This year I will be playing in a rotisserie league for the first time since '05. I am also playing in points-only and h2h w/points leagues. I was finding h2h to be a little too easy.Also, is it okay to advertise free Yahoo leagues at this message board? I am fairly new here and wasn't sure about this. I don't want to advertise my league and then get accused of spamming or something.

 

[Chairshot]

Art McGee talks about these principles in his book "How to Value Players for Rotisserie Baseball". It used to be out of print, but it looks like they are producing a 2nd Edition now. Great, great book, should be required reading for anyone who loves crunching numbers to value their players.

"From the gut" owners would probably hate it.

 

[jamny]

This is only for roto leagues? What about head-to-head?

I haven't played head-to-head in years. This is all based on year end totals so while it would help to see if your team is balanced the week to week fluctuations couldn't be predicted.

Also, is it okay to advertise free Yahoo leagues at this message board? I am fairly new here and wasn't sure about this. I don't want to advertise my league and then get accused of spamming or something.

There's a seperate Looking For Leagues forum.

 

[jamny]

Art McGee talks about these principles in his book "How to Value Players for Rotisserie Baseball". It used to be out of print, but it looks like they are producing a 2nd Edition now. Great, great book, should be required reading for anyone who loves crunching numbers to value their players.

"From the gut" owners would probably hate it.

Yeah, I'm not that big of a numbers guy but this is a simple guide that has helped. I'll definately look into the book though.In my auction league we can hold up to 13 players so it's much easier to try and target specific players to fit the mold. My other league we hold 6 players in a standard snake draft. There I usually just have the totals I'm looking for and take the best available during the draft. I keep a running total going so I can look at where my trouble spots might so I can try and fill needs late in the draft or for my bench. Last year I won my auction by 9.5 points and came down to the last day to lose my other one by 1 point. I blame David Wright and my poor starting/benching calls with Ian Stewart.

 

[MAC_32]

This is how I usually draft, I use razzball's (free) baseline projections and tweak them to fit my rankings, then I figure out how to finish 3rd in every cat. I track my progress throughout, it's good to know if you need to slightly reach for guys like Podsednik and Hardy like I just had to. As late in the draft as those two are going it's tough finding guys who together can get you 30/30, thankfully I was way ahead in avg before those two picks. This is also why I usually try to keep everything in balance early, unlike I did here, so I'm not pigeon holed near the end and could have instead taken a combo of Barmes, Aybar, Dukes, and Maggs - four guys I have ranked higher than my two picks.

 

[jamny]

This is how I usually draft, I use razzball's (free) baseline projections and tweak them to fit my rankings, then I figure out how to finish 3rd in every cat. I track my progress throughout, it's good to know if you need to slightly reach for guys like Podsednik and Hardy like I just had to. As late in the draft as those two are going it's tough finding guys who together can get you 30/30, thankfully I was way ahead in avg before those two picks. This is also why I usually try to keep everything in balance early, unlike I did here, so I'm not pigeon holed near the end and could have instead taken a combo of Barmes, Aybar, Dukes, and Maggs - four guys I have ranked higher than my two picks.

Yeah, I still go after the big thumpers first but where we keep 6 there aren't too many left. I always take balance after that hoping a 20/20 guy will jump a little in one of those. That's where it helps me feel confident in a reach or a offense/pitcher decision.I like to go back multiple years to get my average 3rd place number since there are a lot of fluctuations year-to-year. Some years are just big power years, some speed, some K's etc. Also, my auction is a 6x6 with TB+BB and INN as the additional categories. One guy punts saves every year (he's won twice doing it) and the numbers always depend on if other owners want to give the strategy a shot. In the past 4 years Innings have fluctuated from 1588 to 1707, saves from 61 to 86, K's from 1230 to 1406. You have to watch what others are doing to plan along. The good thing is it really devalues closers and there's usually a closer on the wire during the season. Yet some people will still overpay for one.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

This also may not work if the league is one where a large number of dump trades happen every year. If one or two owners are the beneficiaries of most of said trades, coming in third in each category may not be enough. If all contenders reap the benefits equally, it's not as much of an issue.

 

[jamny]

It's a decent theory, even if I have heard it other places before.The one thing about it if you're using it while you draft to keep an in the moment running tabulation of where you are in each category is it builds a lot into the player projections. And if because of it you choose someone of a lower value because they have the statistics that "need" then you might just be shooting yourself in the foot and would have been better off taking the better player and trading him in season once it becomes clear which, exactly, statistics which you should be looking for.

I figured I wasn't the first to use it. It's not that complex so it's right up my alley.And the point you make happens in every draft. There's always a players or two where I go off script and go with my gut for the potential upside. But even then I will try to balance with another player somehwere along the line. Of course it doesn't hurt that I'm always scanning the waiver wire and probably the most active owner in trades in both leagues.It might be a bit of a boring way to draft but I've gotten past it after seeing the results.

 

[jamny]

This also may not work if the league is one where a large number of dump trades happen every year. If one or two owners are the beneficiaries of most of said trades, coming in third in each category may not be enough. If all contenders reap the benefits equally, it's not as much of an issue.

Unless you are one of those owners. I'm an extremely aggressive trader and will sacrifice a lot if I'm in the running. I actually find it a good position to be in. Sometimes you might need to trade to hold onto third in some caterories. Or you might be closer to second, or even first, then you expected and can add a lot of points.I actually find a lot of the dump trades hurt the top teams very often.

 

[MAC_32]

It's a decent theory, even if I have heard it other places before.The one thing about it if you're using it while you draft to keep an in the moment running tabulation of where you are in each category is it builds a lot into the player projections. And if because of it you choose someone of a lower value because they have the statistics that "need" then you might just be shooting yourself in the foot and would have been better off taking the better player and trading him in season once it becomes clear which, exactly, statistics which you should be looking for.

I have never been a fan of the draft a player to trade him strategy, if you're seeing Mark Reynolds circa 2009 then hell yes you go get him anyway. In the later portions of the draft, unless you see that huge upside potential, take the guy with the cats you need...and you don't need to track where you are throughout. Just create target numbers and make sure your team reaches those goals.

 

[jamny]

This also may not work if the league is one where a large number of dump trades happen every year. If one or two owners are the beneficiaries of most of said trades, coming in third in each category may not be enough. If all contenders reap the benefits equally, it's not as much of an issue.

Unless you are one of those owners. I'm an extremely aggressive trader and will sacrifice a lot if I'm in the running. I actually find it a good position to be in. Sometimes you might need to trade to hold onto third in some caterories. Or you might be closer to second, or even first, then you expected and can add a lot of points.I actually find a lot of the dump trades hurt the top teams very often.

Just wanted to add that I'm the commish of the league and added a pretty good anti-dumping rule that another owner brought in from a different league, the Asterisk Rule:

The Asterisk rule: Over the course of a single season, you cannot have traded more than 1 asterisk player to another team than they have traded to you An asterisk player is any player that: - Carries a salary of $20 or more - Is in his final year of a long-term contract - Is in his option year

This has been very effective in preventing serious dumping. Besides that, the league is in it's 11th season without a lot of turnover. It's really competitive and there aren't too many shenanigans. The 6 man keeper will be in it's 18th season with even fewer people leaving. It's always easier to plan when you know your competitors.