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My Early 2011 Dynasty QB Rankings (1 Viewer)

Richard_the_Vampire said:
I question your valuation of "hype" players. You have Roethlisberger, Manning, and Brady far too low, and Stafford, Vick, Ryan and Bradford far too high. Roethlisberger is younger than Vick, you know. Much younger.
Are you telling me that once you've locked up Rodgers or Rivers at QB, your next look is at Manning/Brady because "they're" next on your sheet? Of course not. Now you're changing gears. This list is an attempt to quantify that switch. Look everywhere and they'll give you a list that has Manning/Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Vick/Rivers/Ryan/Roethlisberger/Manning in the top 8. Yup. Been there and seen it.Maybe I didn't make it clear enough in my original post. You need two lists of rankings when evaluating QB's (maybe even three). One for evaluating your "starter" and one for your bench players. You use different criteria for evaluating your starter than you do for evaluating your guys sitting behind him - or at least you should. This list is an opportunity for you consider a different perspective.
I still don't understand. Why is Vick #2 and Manning outside the top 10? Roethlisberger is not valuable when you consider youth and upside? Really?
Vick comes up #2 because he represents a huge swing between on field performance and injury potential. Vick averaged nearly 10PPG more than the #2 at his position. TEN!! That's a bigger gap than exists between #2 and #12!! In a list that doesn't worry about injury possibilities, Vick is very nearly the emperor of all things - the only reason he isn't #1 is because he's nearly 31.Manning is outside the top 10 because I don't want to waste a roster spot holding Manning as a back up. Am I really doing this poor a job of communicating what makes this list different from those you are used to?Roethlisperger was 20th in PPG in 2008, 5th in 2009, and 10th in 2010. I personally feel that 2009 may have been his ceiling. He's 29 and makes a great starter, but I don't know why I'd want him riding the pine on my bench behind a Brady, Manning or Rodgers when I can trade him for something that can actually help my team.
I think that may be the problem. :lol:

Why bother putting out a secondary ranking list that is somehow trying to make some grand statement on how you value roster spots?

Why not just state that you think teams that roster a backup QB should go for high upside or boom/bust types rather than waste the spot on some boring dependable backup like Eli Manning or David Garrard?

 
Richard_the_Vampire said:
I question your valuation of "hype" players. You have Roethlisberger, Manning, and Brady far too low, and Stafford, Vick, Ryan and Bradford far too high. Roethlisberger is younger than Vick, you know. Much younger.
Are you telling me that once you've locked up Rodgers or Rivers at QB, your next look is at Manning/Brady because "they're" next on your sheet? Of course not. Now you're changing gears. This list is an attempt to quantify that switch. Look everywhere and they'll give you a list that has Manning/Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Vick/Rivers/Ryan/Roethlisberger/Manning in the top 8. Yup. Been there and seen it.Maybe I didn't make it clear enough in my original post. You need two lists of rankings when evaluating QB's (maybe even three). One for evaluating your "starter" and one for your bench players. You use different criteria for evaluating your starter than you do for evaluating your guys sitting behind him - or at least you should. This list is an opportunity for you consider a different perspective.
I still don't understand. Why is Vick #2 and Manning outside the top 10? Roethlisberger is not valuable when you consider youth and upside? Really?
Vick comes up #2 because he represents a huge swing between on field performance and injury potential. Vick averaged nearly 10PPG more than the #2 at his position. TEN!! That's a bigger gap than exists between #2 and #12!! In a list that doesn't worry about injury possibilities, Vick is very nearly the emperor of all things - the only reason he isn't #1 is because he's nearly 31.Manning is outside the top 10 because I don't want to waste a roster spot holding Manning as a back up. Am I really doing this poor a job of communicating what makes this list different from those you are used to?

Roethlisperger was 20th in PPG in 2008, 5th in 2009, and 10th in 2010. I personally feel that 2009 may have been his ceiling. He's 29 and makes a great starter, but I don't know why I'd want him riding the pine on my bench behind a Brady, Manning or Rodgers when I can trade him for something that can actually help my team.
I still don't get how you're starting Rivers and calling Vick your backup. Just me, but I have Vick firmly on the list of guys I'll take as my starter but then my priority for backup is a guy like Eli or Ben - I believe in a mix of risk/reward with a hedge at most positions, but especially QB.

 
FUBAR said:
I question your valuation of "hype" players. You have Roethlisberger, Manning, and Brady far too low, and Stafford, Vick, Ryan and Bradford far too high. Roethlisberger is younger than Vick, you know. Much younger.
Are you telling me that once you've locked up Rodgers or Rivers at QB, your next look is at Manning/Brady because "they're" next on your sheet? Of course not. Now you're changing gears. This list is an attempt to quantify that switch. Look everywhere and they'll give you a list that has Manning/Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Vick/Rivers/Ryan/Roethlisberger/Manning in the top 8. Yup. Been there and seen it.Maybe I didn't make it clear enough in my original post. You need two lists of rankings when evaluating QB's (maybe even three). One for evaluating your "starter" and one for your bench players. You use different criteria for evaluating your starter than you do for evaluating your guys sitting behind him - or at least you should. This list is an opportunity for you consider a different perspective.
I still don't understand. Why is Vick #2 and Manning outside the top 10? Roethlisberger is not valuable when you consider youth and upside? Really?
Vick comes up #2 because he represents a huge swing between on field performance and injury potential. Vick averaged nearly 10PPG more than the #2 at his position. TEN!! That's a bigger gap than exists between #2 and #12!! In a list that doesn't worry about injury possibilities, Vick is very nearly the emperor of all things - the only reason he isn't #1 is because he's nearly 31.Manning is outside the top 10 because I don't want to waste a roster spot holding Manning as a back up. Am I really doing this poor a job of communicating what makes this list different from those you are used to?

Roethlisperger was 20th in PPG in 2008, 5th in 2009, and 10th in 2010. I personally feel that 2009 may have been his ceiling. He's 29 and makes a great starter, but I don't know why I'd want him riding the pine on my bench behind a Brady, Manning or Rodgers when I can trade him for something that can actually help my team.
I still don't get how you're starting Rivers and calling Vick your backup. Just me, but I have Vick firmly on the list of guys I'll take as my starter but then my priority for backup is a guy like Eli or Ben - I believe in a mix of risk/reward with a hedge at most positions, but especially QB.
It's true, Vick is a bit of an outlier here. Because I think he's possibly one of the only true injury risk at QB. I'd love to have him as my starter, but then would require a solid #2 if I wanted to protect against injury - which is why he's #7 on my base list. But as a "backup", or at least a situation where I'm not worrying about his risk, he grades out at #2. It's really just academic whether or not you'd start him. Obviously you would as long as he's healthy.
 
It's true, Vick is a bit of an outlier here. Because I think he's possibly one of the only true injury risk at QB. I'd love to have him as my starter, but then would require a solid #2 if I wanted to protect against injury - which is why he's #7 on my base list. But as a "backup", or at least a situation where I'm not worrying about his risk, he grades out at #2. It's really just academic whether or not you'd start him. Obviously you would as long as he's healthy.
Makes sense I guess, we just do it differently. Let's say you got Vick as your starter if he's your #7 guy on that list, are you taking Stafford this high as a backup?
 
It's true, Vick is a bit of an outlier here. Because I think he's possibly one of the only true injury risk at QB. I'd love to have him as my starter, but then would require a solid #2 if I wanted to protect against injury - which is why he's #7 on my base list. But as a "backup", or at least a situation where I'm not worrying about his risk, he grades out at #2. It's really just academic whether or not you'd start him. Obviously you would as long as he's healthy.
Makes sense I guess, we just do it differently. Let's say you got Vick as your starter if he's your #7 guy on that list, are you taking Stafford this high as a backup?
Probably not Stafford. I think I'd probably rather have someone like a Roethlisberger/Eli/Flacco behind him. But Vick is kind of a strange bird, as I'm more concerned about him missing time than any other QB.If I had a Rodgers/Rivers/Brady/Peyton/Brees type at #1, I'd be fine with Stafford as my #2.I see what you're getting at, and I hinted at it, but didn't exactly spell it out in my first post: that I think you might look for the same things in your #1 (starter) & #2 (backup) guys - though obviously it's likely you'll usually get those traits to a far lesser degree in your #2. A lot of that is individual comfort level though. I rode Peyton Manning for three seasons without a reliable "backup" because I felt 100% secure that he was going to start every game for me except for his bye. I simply loaded my bench with long-shots if I hadn't already used those slots to work on other positions.Vick, on the other hand, almost requires a reasonable backup, because I think it's highly likely he misses 1-5 games due to injury. but may be worth it because of the huge advantage he provides when he plays.Does that make sense?
 
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I think that may be the problem. :shrug:

Why bother putting out a secondary ranking list that is somehow trying to make some grand statement on how you value roster spots?

Why not just state that you think teams that roster a backup QB should go for high upside or boom/bust types rather than waste the spot on some boring dependable backup like Eli Manning or David Garrard?
Because I thought, once explained, that people would inherently understand that we should be using different criteria for evaluating players once we get past our starters (and maybe our backup). There are plenty of rankings out there that focus on the criteria that serve well for evaluating starters and backups, but I've never seen a list that focuses on the criteria best suited for deeper bench players.So... to that end, I thought it would be interesting to present an early edition ranking that supports that proposition and discuss it. Instead I'm stuck with people telling me I don't have Manning and Brady high enough. :rolleyes:

I mean, isn't that the Holy Grail of dynasty rankings? How to weigh current production vs future potential? You're right of course. Maybe I should have started with an in depth discussion of why I think slotted roster spots and a dual ranking system is the way to go. Instead of posting a list open to criticism by people who were expecting to see a typical ranking. I simply thought that once understood, the value would be self-evident but maybe I simply did a poor job of explaining it.

 
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im not sure i understand why any of you would put a running qb anywhere near the top 10 for a dynasty ranking? Dunno bout you, when i think dynasty I think of long term, and when i think of running qbs that doesnt applyVick who is a "young" 30 will be 31 next season, and you cant get the guy to go feet first these dont add up to a dynasty qb investment to me. Additionally if the GB staff cant get #12 to learn how to go feet first more often hes going to suffer in the future as well.
Agree.
I don't. Steve Young was a running QB who started a little half the games when he was 30 but did not get the full time job until he was 31. He did not miss a game in the next 3 seasons and continued to start for 7 years while missing only 9 starts and as far as I can recall one or two of those starts might have been the 49'ers resting him in the final week. Either way 9 missed games in 7 years is not bad.Everyone says Vick is injury prone but I don't really see that either. He's basically had two injuries in his entire career that cost him more than a week. The pre-season injury in 2003 that resulted in him only starting 5 games and the rib injury this season. He's not Favre but in his 6 years as a starting QB he's started 15,5,15,15, 16 and 12 out of 15 possible starts this year since he did not have the job in week one and if they needed him he probably could have started the season finale which means he might have only missed two starts. I don't see that as being overly injury prone.Now if you want to make the point the Philly QB, whoever he might be, is injury prone I'd probably agree with that. I think Reid puts to much on the shoulders of the QB and it's one of the reasons they are worn out by season's end. Speaking of running QB's I think everyone is asleep on Tebow. He'll AVERAGE over 10 TD's rushing a year and I think surpass 15 some seasons. In the passing game he'll only need to average around 200 yards and a TD and he'll be a QB1.
 

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