Chase Stuart
Footballguy
The 12 playoff teams fit evenly into four groups of three.
LOLs: Denver, Cincinnati, Houston
All of these teams have solid defenses, but really ugly offenses. Houston could have been elite, but with Yates the offense is a shell of its former self. The Broncos and Bengals are a whopping 0-9 against teams with 10 or more wins this season. Denver's offense takes halves off and isn't good when it shows up. Cincinnati's offense is only a little better, and was aided by some very turnover luck early in the season. A mediocre offense and a good but not great defense isn't a recipe for anything in the playoffs. Houston could have been a SB champ with Schaub and Mario Williams, but they're more like a team that could lose to the Colts right now.
Just Another Playoff Teams: New York, Atlanta, Detroit
None of these teams are as bad as the LOLs over in the AFC, but all lack a defense. They're kind of like the inverse of the AFC squads: they have good but not elite offenses and bad defenses; a formula for maybe winning one shootout but that's it. None of these teams can stop a good passing attack and none of these teams can run. The Lions and Giants are flat out bad at running, and the Falcons are only mediocre. Meanwhile, they have good but not elite passing attacks. The Giants probably have the best passing game, but Eli makes too many mistakes and the receivers make too many drops to overcome the flawed defense/running game.
Arena Bowl Champs: New Orleans, Green Bay, New England
Rodgers led the league in NY/A and ANY/A. Brees led the league in passing yards. Brady gained more yards than Rodgers and had a higher ANY/A and NY/A than Brees. The Packers have the best passing game but the Saints and Patriots have much better running games. All three offenses are 10s. But there's no defense here. The Patriots allowed the most first downs in the league. The Packers allowed the most yards. The Saints can't stop the run and aren't much better against the pass. All three defenses are helped out by offenses that don't put them in bad positions -- they don't turn the ball over and they don't go three and out and give the other team the ball at the 50 -- but they're all just bad.
GB and NE are helped immensely by having the #1 seed, but they're fundamentally flawed teams.
Teams coached by Harbaugh
Baltimore and San Francisco are mirror images of each other. They might have the best two defenses in the league. Both are stout against the run and pass and can rush the passer. They force a ridiculous amount of three and outs and can just cripple an offense. The Achilles heel? But like any great D, they're susceptible to an elite passing attack. Romo and Vick did very well against SF, and Eli Manning was nearly as good. Rivers shredded the Ravens, and Roethlisberger and Hasselbeck made the Ravens defense look mortal. Of course, the reason the defenses need to be so good is because both teams struggle so much on offense, specifically at QB. The 49ers can't do anything well on offense -- Alex Smith was mediocre at best even this season in all of the efficiency numbers. Flacco might even be worse, but at least he's got more history of success. The running backs are great, but neither quarterback is good enough to count on in a shoot out.
That leaves just one team, who nominally belongs in the category with Baltimore and San Francisco. The Steelers have an elite defense -- they rank 1st in yards, points, net yards per pass and first downs allowed. But unlike Baltimore and San Francisco, Pittsburgh has a quarterback. Pittsburgh had some awful turnover luck this season -- they ranked 28th in turnover differential at -13. Yet somehow, they led the league in points allowed. But the offense is actually pretty good:
Mike Willace and Antonio Brown both have 1100 yards, while Heath Miller is a very good TE in the pre-Gronkowski days where a good TE didn't have to be an alien. Ward, Sanders and Cotchery enable Pittsburgh to have an effective spread offense. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in the NFL in third down percentage; they're in the top 10 in net yards per pass, first downs and passing yards. So why do the Steelers only rank 21st in points?
Mostly because they haven't had many drives. And they haven't scored much on defense this season. But coming into week 17, according to Football Outsiders (not updated for week 17 yet) the Steelers ranked 11th in points per drive. The Steelers forced the fewest turnovers in the league this season. Shocking, of course, but also the biggest reason their point production is ugly. Pittsburgh ranks 11th in points per drive despite having the 5th worst average field position to start a drive. Pittsburgh actually ranks FIFTH in yards per drive. This is a very good offense that just hasn't been put in a position to score a ton of points.
You can forget about the LOLs and put the JAPTs in your rearview mirror a second later. NE, NO and GB have ridiculous offenses but bad defenses. Bal and SF have ridiculous defenses but mediocre offenses. Only one team doesn't have to compensate for one of its units. Pittsburgh has an elite defense and a very good offense, just a little bit behind those other two teams.
Take a look at how these teams all look in Net Yards per Attempt, Net Yards per Attempt Allowed, and differential:
Pittsburgh can pass and stop the pass. Had Schaub stayed healthy, the Texans would be right up there. But as it stands, I only see one complete team in the entire NFL.
LOLs: Denver, Cincinnati, Houston
All of these teams have solid defenses, but really ugly offenses. Houston could have been elite, but with Yates the offense is a shell of its former self. The Broncos and Bengals are a whopping 0-9 against teams with 10 or more wins this season. Denver's offense takes halves off and isn't good when it shows up. Cincinnati's offense is only a little better, and was aided by some very turnover luck early in the season. A mediocre offense and a good but not great defense isn't a recipe for anything in the playoffs. Houston could have been a SB champ with Schaub and Mario Williams, but they're more like a team that could lose to the Colts right now.
Just Another Playoff Teams: New York, Atlanta, Detroit
None of these teams are as bad as the LOLs over in the AFC, but all lack a defense. They're kind of like the inverse of the AFC squads: they have good but not elite offenses and bad defenses; a formula for maybe winning one shootout but that's it. None of these teams can stop a good passing attack and none of these teams can run. The Lions and Giants are flat out bad at running, and the Falcons are only mediocre. Meanwhile, they have good but not elite passing attacks. The Giants probably have the best passing game, but Eli makes too many mistakes and the receivers make too many drops to overcome the flawed defense/running game.
Arena Bowl Champs: New Orleans, Green Bay, New England
Rodgers led the league in NY/A and ANY/A. Brees led the league in passing yards. Brady gained more yards than Rodgers and had a higher ANY/A and NY/A than Brees. The Packers have the best passing game but the Saints and Patriots have much better running games. All three offenses are 10s. But there's no defense here. The Patriots allowed the most first downs in the league. The Packers allowed the most yards. The Saints can't stop the run and aren't much better against the pass. All three defenses are helped out by offenses that don't put them in bad positions -- they don't turn the ball over and they don't go three and out and give the other team the ball at the 50 -- but they're all just bad.
GB and NE are helped immensely by having the #1 seed, but they're fundamentally flawed teams.
Teams coached by Harbaugh
Baltimore and San Francisco are mirror images of each other. They might have the best two defenses in the league. Both are stout against the run and pass and can rush the passer. They force a ridiculous amount of three and outs and can just cripple an offense. The Achilles heel? But like any great D, they're susceptible to an elite passing attack. Romo and Vick did very well against SF, and Eli Manning was nearly as good. Rivers shredded the Ravens, and Roethlisberger and Hasselbeck made the Ravens defense look mortal. Of course, the reason the defenses need to be so good is because both teams struggle so much on offense, specifically at QB. The 49ers can't do anything well on offense -- Alex Smith was mediocre at best even this season in all of the efficiency numbers. Flacco might even be worse, but at least he's got more history of success. The running backs are great, but neither quarterback is good enough to count on in a shoot out.
That leaves just one team, who nominally belongs in the category with Baltimore and San Francisco. The Steelers have an elite defense -- they rank 1st in yards, points, net yards per pass and first downs allowed. But unlike Baltimore and San Francisco, Pittsburgh has a quarterback. Pittsburgh had some awful turnover luck this season -- they ranked 28th in turnover differential at -13. Yet somehow, they led the league in points allowed. But the offense is actually pretty good:
Mike Willace and Antonio Brown both have 1100 yards, while Heath Miller is a very good TE in the pre-Gronkowski days where a good TE didn't have to be an alien. Ward, Sanders and Cotchery enable Pittsburgh to have an effective spread offense. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in the NFL in third down percentage; they're in the top 10 in net yards per pass, first downs and passing yards. So why do the Steelers only rank 21st in points?
Mostly because they haven't had many drives. And they haven't scored much on defense this season. But coming into week 17, according to Football Outsiders (not updated for week 17 yet) the Steelers ranked 11th in points per drive. The Steelers forced the fewest turnovers in the league this season. Shocking, of course, but also the biggest reason their point production is ugly. Pittsburgh ranks 11th in points per drive despite having the 5th worst average field position to start a drive. Pittsburgh actually ranks FIFTH in yards per drive. This is a very good offense that just hasn't been put in a position to score a ton of points.
You can forget about the LOLs and put the JAPTs in your rearview mirror a second later. NE, NO and GB have ridiculous offenses but bad defenses. Bal and SF have ridiculous defenses but mediocre offenses. Only one team doesn't have to compensate for one of its units. Pittsburgh has an elite defense and a very good offense, just a little bit behind those other two teams.
Take a look at how these teams all look in Net Yards per Attempt, Net Yards per Attempt Allowed, and differential:
Code:
Tm NY/A NY/AA DiffPittsburgh Steelers 6.98 4.87 2.11Houston Texans 7.01 5.21 1.80New Orleans Saints 7.79 6.31 1.49New York Giants 7.67 6.41 1.26Green Bay Packers 8.30 7.20 1.10Detroit Lions 6.86 5.94 0.92New England Patriots 7.89 7.14 0.76Baltimore Ravens 5.93 5.39 0.55Atlanta Falcons 6.76 6.38 0.38Cincinnati Bengals 5.96 5.80 0.17San Francisco 49ers 5.92 5.95 -0.03Denver Broncos 5.17 6.44 -1.27
n defense, all the key players are playing. It would be great if they had a bye, but that's life.
lets recap,Alex Smith finished the season ranked 11th in completion %. he finished first in interception % and first in interceptions thrown.he ranked 9th in qb rating.He has been efficient and very mistake-free, limiting his turnovers severely. the big problem here is the Niners' and Alex's inability to do much in the redzone.
