My NFL playoff quick thoughts (1 Viewer)

[Pots]

The Steelers have an elite defense -- they rank 1st in yards, points, net yards per pass and first downs allowed. But unlike Baltimore and San Francisco, Pittsburgh has a quarterback. Pittsburgh had some awful turnover luck this season -- they ranked 28th in turnover differential at -13. Yet somehow, they led the league in points allowed. But the offense is actually pretty good:Mike Willace and Antonio Brown both have 1100 yards, while Heath Miller is a very good TE in the pre-Gronkowski days where a good TE didn't have to be an alien. Ward, Sanders and Cotchery enable Pittsburgh to have an effective spread offense. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in the NFL in third down percentage; they're in the top 10 in net yards per pass, first downs and passing yards. So why do the Steelers only rank 21st in points?Mostly because they haven't had many drives. And they haven't scored much on defense this season. But coming into week 17, according to Football Outsiders (not updated for week 17 yet) the Steelers ranked 11th in points per drive. The Steelers forced the fewest turnovers in the league this season. Shocking, of course, but also the biggest reason their point production is ugly. Pittsburgh ranks 11th in points per drive despite having the 5th worst average field position to start a drive. Pittsburgh actually ranks FIFTH in yards per drive. This is a very good offense that just hasn't been put in a position to score a ton of points.You can forget about the LOLs and put the JAPTs in your rearview mirror a second later. NE, NO and GB have ridiculous offenses but bad defenses. Bal and SF have ridiculous defenses but mediocre offenses. Only one team doesn't have to compensate for one of its units. Pittsburgh has an elite defense and a very good offense, just a little bit behind those other two teams.Take a look at how these teams all look in Net Yards per Attempt, Net Yards per Attempt Allowed, and differential:

Tm                       NY/A   NY/AA   DiffPittsburgh Steelers      6.98   4.87    2.11Houston Texans           7.01   5.21    1.80New Orleans Saints       7.79   6.31    1.49New York Giants          7.67   6.41    1.26Green Bay Packers        8.30   7.20    1.10Detroit Lions            6.86   5.94    0.92New England Patriots     7.89   7.14    0.76Baltimore Ravens         5.93   5.39    0.55Atlanta Falcons          6.76   6.38    0.38Cincinnati Bengals       5.96   5.80    0.17San Francisco 49ers      5.92   5.95   -0.03Denver Broncos           5.17   6.44   -1.27

Pittsburgh can pass and stop the pass. Had Schaub stayed healthy, the Texans would be right up there. But as it stands, I only see one complete team in the entire NFL.

OwnedBadly

 

[GregR]

The Steelers have an elite defense -- they rank 1st in yards, points, net yards per pass and first downs allowed. But unlike Baltimore and San Francisco, Pittsburgh has a quarterback. Pittsburgh had some awful turnover luck this season -- they ranked 28th in turnover differential at -13. Yet somehow, they led the league in points allowed. But the offense is actually pretty good:Mike Willace and Antonio Brown both have 1100 yards, while Heath Miller is a very good TE in the pre-Gronkowski days where a good TE didn't have to be an alien. Ward, Sanders and Cotchery enable Pittsburgh to have an effective spread offense. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in the NFL in third down percentage; they're in the top 10 in net yards per pass, first downs and passing yards. So why do the Steelers only rank 21st in points?Mostly because they haven't had many drives. And they haven't scored much on defense this season. But coming into week 17, according to Football Outsiders (not updated for week 17 yet) the Steelers ranked 11th in points per drive. The Steelers forced the fewest turnovers in the league this season. Shocking, of course, but also the biggest reason their point production is ugly. Pittsburgh ranks 11th in points per drive despite having the 5th worst average field position to start a drive. Pittsburgh actually ranks FIFTH in yards per drive. This is a very good offense that just hasn't been put in a position to score a ton of points.You can forget about the LOLs and put the JAPTs in your rearview mirror a second later. NE, NO and GB have ridiculous offenses but bad defenses. Bal and SF have ridiculous defenses but mediocre offenses. Only one team doesn't have to compensate for one of its units. Pittsburgh has an elite defense and a very good offense, just a little bit behind those other two teams.Take a look at how these teams all look in Net Yards per Attempt, Net Yards per Attempt Allowed, and differential:

Tm                       NY/A   NY/AA   DiffPittsburgh Steelers      6.98   4.87    2.11Houston Texans           7.01   5.21    1.80New Orleans Saints       7.79   6.31    1.49New York Giants          7.67   6.41    1.26Green Bay Packers        8.30   7.20    1.10Detroit Lions            6.86   5.94    0.92New England Patriots     7.89   7.14    0.76Baltimore Ravens         5.93   5.39    0.55Atlanta Falcons          6.76   6.38    0.38Cincinnati Bengals       5.96   5.80    0.17San Francisco 49ers      5.92   5.95   -0.03Denver Broncos           5.17   6.44   -1.27

Pittsburgh can pass and stop the pass. Had Schaub stayed healthy, the Texans would be right up there. But as it stands, I only see one complete team in the entire NFL.

OwnedBadly

very good article chase but you forgot one thing, devine intervention

Noel Devine?

 

[FUBAR]

Is anyone else starting to think we could see a Texans/Giants Super Bowl? (I'm still betting on the Saints, but Giants are looking good)

If Houston gets past Baltimore, they match up very well with New England and I don't see the Patriots stopping AJ.

The Giants will get pressure on Rodgers and they are coming together at the right time.

Somehow I've been underestimating the Texans until now. (side note: what would their D be like if Mario were playing?)

 

[FUBAR]

The 12 playoff teams fit evenly into four groups of three.

LOLs: Denver, Cincinnati, Houston

All of these teams have solid defenses, but really ugly offenses. Houston could have been elite, but with Yates the offense is a shell of its former self. The Broncos and Bengals are a whopping 0-9 against teams with 10 or more wins this season. Denver's offense takes halves off and isn't good when it shows up. Cincinnati's offense is only a little better, and was aided by some very turnover luck early in the season. A mediocre offense and a good but not great defense isn't a recipe for anything in the playoffs. Houston could have been a SB champ with Schaub and Mario Williams, but they're more like a team that could lose to the Colts right now.

thanks for making us amateurs feel better about whiffing on a couple calls.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Chase usually brings good stats into discussions, but he is over reliant on them, as shown by his complete whiffs on the Broncos and Texans. Sometimes, stats really don't mean everything. 15 years ago, the idea of the Super Bowl featuring teams with the two worst statistical defense was laughable, but it is now a strong possibility. It shows how much the league has changed. You can't always have a computer tell you, "This team is the best at this or that," and deduce that they are the best team based on that anymore. It doesn't work that way.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chase usually brings good stats into discussions, but he is over reliant on them, as shown by his complete whiffs on the Broncos and Texans. Sometimes, stats really don't mean everything. 15 years ago, the idea of the Super Bowl featuring teams with the two worst statistical defense was laughable, but it is now a strong possibility. It shows how much the league has changed. You can't always have a computer tell you, "This team is the best at this or that," and deduce that they are the best team based on that anymore. It doesn't work that way.

That's true. The eye test told me that the Broncos were legit, but I listened to the stats, instead.

 

[Reepicheep]

Chase usually brings good stats into discussions, but he is over reliant on them, as shown by his complete whiffs on the Broncos and Texans. Sometimes, stats really don't mean everything. 15 years ago, the idea of the Super Bowl featuring teams with the two worst statistical defense was laughable, but it is now a strong possibility. It shows how much the league has changed. You can't always have a computer tell you, "This team is the best at this or that," and deduce that they are the best team based on that anymore. It doesn't work that way.

That's true. The eye test told me that the Broncos were legit, but I listened to the stats, instead.

Well played Chase.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The Steelers have an elite defense -- they rank 1st in yards, points, net yards per pass and first downs allowed. But unlike Baltimore and San Francisco, Pittsburgh has a quarterback. Pittsburgh had some awful turnover luck this season -- they ranked 28th in turnover differential at -13. Yet somehow, they led the league in points allowed. But the offense is actually pretty good:Mike Willace and Antonio Brown both have 1100 yards, while Heath Miller is a very good TE in the pre-Gronkowski days where a good TE didn't have to be an alien. Ward, Sanders and Cotchery enable Pittsburgh to have an effective spread offense. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in the NFL in third down percentage; they're in the top 10 in net yards per pass, first downs and passing yards. So why do the Steelers only rank 21st in points?Mostly because they haven't had many drives. And they haven't scored much on defense this season. But coming into week 17, according to Football Outsiders (not updated for week 17 yet) the Steelers ranked 11th in points per drive. The Steelers forced the fewest turnovers in the league this season. Shocking, of course, but also the biggest reason their point production is ugly. Pittsburgh ranks 11th in points per drive despite having the 5th worst average field position to start a drive. Pittsburgh actually ranks FIFTH in yards per drive. This is a very good offense that just hasn't been put in a position to score a ton of points.You can forget about the LOLs and put the JAPTs in your rearview mirror a second later. NE, NO and GB have ridiculous offenses but bad defenses. Bal and SF have ridiculous defenses but mediocre offenses. Only one team doesn't have to compensate for one of its units. Pittsburgh has an elite defense and a very good offense, just a little bit behind those other two teams.Take a look at how these teams all look in Net Yards per Attempt, Net Yards per Attempt Allowed, and differential:

Tm                       NY/A   NY/AA   DiffPittsburgh Steelers      6.98   4.87    2.11Houston Texans           7.01   5.21    1.80New Orleans Saints       7.79   6.31    1.49New York Giants          7.67   6.41    1.26Green Bay Packers        8.30   7.20    1.10Detroit Lions            6.86   5.94    0.92New England Patriots     7.89   7.14    0.76Baltimore Ravens         5.93   5.39    0.55Atlanta Falcons          6.76   6.38    0.38Cincinnati Bengals       5.96   5.80    0.17San Francisco 49ers      5.92   5.95   -0.03Denver Broncos           5.17   6.44   -1.27

Pittsburgh can pass and stop the pass. Had Schaub stayed healthy, the Texans would be right up there. But as it stands, I only see one complete team in the entire NFL.

OwnedBadly

very good article chase but you forgot one thing, devine intervention

Not my fault the players didn't do what they were supposed to do./Raheem