podunker
Footballguy
Observation From the Pig Pen! (Through 4 weeks!)
These are just my thoughts in my first year playing DFS seriously. I dabbled the last two, but have been spending about 15-20 hours a week this year on it. Spend a lot of time at FBG, RotoGrinders, Football Outsiders, PFFocus.
First just my general thoughts on competing on a weekly basis.
The three most important items for success in my opinion:
RESEARCH, BANKROLL DISCIPLINE, GAME SELECTION
You have to do some research, I believe there is still a lot of luck involved, but less luck the more research and work you but into it. Most casual players I would say its 80/20 luck. I would say it still 50/50 luck even with a lot of work put into it. I like the 50/50 odds better. Hopefully that even gets better as the season goes on. I know 4 weeks is not enough time for teams/players to really develop tendencies. That is the big disadvantage of Pro Football. Not very many games compared to baseball/basketball. I really don’t know if even 16 games are enough to gleam any meaningful trends.
Bankroll management/discipline is crucial to success. However, for me anyway, it’s the hardest thing to do. I suck at bankroll management through the first four weeks. It never fails I go into a week thinking I am going to spend this percentage and always end up spending more than that by the end of the week.
Chasing overlays is the easiest way to break your bankroll.
We all want to be Millionaires, but stay away from those contests if you want to make money. I prefer to “shotgun” small GPP’s instead. I think your better off spending that $20-$25 on a bunch of small GPP’s and Qualifiers, that I can afford to put multiple LU in. I usually put 10 LU in each small GPP. So I am looking at 25 cent, $1, and $2 Gpps. Of course this is all based on your bankroll. $1 to me might be the same as $25 to you!
Bots (joking) are not winning the Qualifiers; they need actual bodies to fill the seats. I admit that some of the big GPP’s winners LU look strange. That has not been the case with the Qualifiers I see. Most the LU is legit, and I could see why they played that player for the most part.
Game selection is also crucial to success and takes time to learn. I am still learning it as we speak. Dodd’s got me thinking about Leagues last week, I hadn’t been playing in them at all, but now think they might be money well spent.
Cash Games, Cash Games, Cash Games. I can’t say that enough. I don’t care if it’s 50/50, double ups, or H2H games. Unless money is no concern, you have to play a big percentage of your bankroll in these to win in the long haul. For me, I just suck at making GPP LU I guess. I can’t wrap my head around picking long shots to win money I guess. I am much better at making solid picks for cash game line-ups period!
The best tool, by a long shot, is the “IVC” on this site. Making LU is key to success. That single tool will help you make decent line ups period. Not for GPP’s, but for cash games for sure. It’s worth the price of being a member all by itself.
GENERAL PLAYER THOUGHTS
Once again you can’t control injuries, but you can take advantage of them the next week.
Don’t get too cute trying to avoid players in GPPs that it cost you money in the long run. Same can be said for varying your cash games line-ups. Don’t do it just for the sake of doing it!
I am still trying to figure out for myself how many cash game LU to play each week. I started out the first three weeks with two. This week I went to four. Still playing around with that.
Don’t let biases come into play when picking players. I would say a lot of people wish they would have been playing Dalton a few times the last few weeks.
If your core players have a bad week, you are going to have a bad week!
I get caught up through the week on certain players for various reasons, my own thoughts on the player, the matchup, the “experts” thoughts, whatever. My core players are formed from those thoughts. I have found it very helpful to take a step back, and get away from things for a few hours, usually overnight. Then go back and look at the players nobody are talking about, but still have reasonable upside. I always find a player or two that I had completely forgot about!
Luck will remain a factor no matter what: (injuries, penalties on scoring/big scoring plays. Guy getting tackled on long pass play or run at 1 yard line, and sub coming in to get TD, etc., etc. etc.)
I am trying to make “luck” as small a factor as possible in the long run!
As it stands, I am keeping my head above water after four weeks. I hope to be dog paddling at least in the coming weeks!
These are just my thoughts in my first year playing DFS seriously. I dabbled the last two, but have been spending about 15-20 hours a week this year on it. Spend a lot of time at FBG, RotoGrinders, Football Outsiders, PFFocus.
First just my general thoughts on competing on a weekly basis.
The three most important items for success in my opinion:
RESEARCH, BANKROLL DISCIPLINE, GAME SELECTION
You have to do some research, I believe there is still a lot of luck involved, but less luck the more research and work you but into it. Most casual players I would say its 80/20 luck. I would say it still 50/50 luck even with a lot of work put into it. I like the 50/50 odds better. Hopefully that even gets better as the season goes on. I know 4 weeks is not enough time for teams/players to really develop tendencies. That is the big disadvantage of Pro Football. Not very many games compared to baseball/basketball. I really don’t know if even 16 games are enough to gleam any meaningful trends.
Bankroll management/discipline is crucial to success. However, for me anyway, it’s the hardest thing to do. I suck at bankroll management through the first four weeks. It never fails I go into a week thinking I am going to spend this percentage and always end up spending more than that by the end of the week.
Chasing overlays is the easiest way to break your bankroll.
We all want to be Millionaires, but stay away from those contests if you want to make money. I prefer to “shotgun” small GPP’s instead. I think your better off spending that $20-$25 on a bunch of small GPP’s and Qualifiers, that I can afford to put multiple LU in. I usually put 10 LU in each small GPP. So I am looking at 25 cent, $1, and $2 Gpps. Of course this is all based on your bankroll. $1 to me might be the same as $25 to you!
Bots (joking) are not winning the Qualifiers; they need actual bodies to fill the seats. I admit that some of the big GPP’s winners LU look strange. That has not been the case with the Qualifiers I see. Most the LU is legit, and I could see why they played that player for the most part.
Game selection is also crucial to success and takes time to learn. I am still learning it as we speak. Dodd’s got me thinking about Leagues last week, I hadn’t been playing in them at all, but now think they might be money well spent.
Cash Games, Cash Games, Cash Games. I can’t say that enough. I don’t care if it’s 50/50, double ups, or H2H games. Unless money is no concern, you have to play a big percentage of your bankroll in these to win in the long haul. For me, I just suck at making GPP LU I guess. I can’t wrap my head around picking long shots to win money I guess. I am much better at making solid picks for cash game line-ups period!
The best tool, by a long shot, is the “IVC” on this site. Making LU is key to success. That single tool will help you make decent line ups period. Not for GPP’s, but for cash games for sure. It’s worth the price of being a member all by itself.
GENERAL PLAYER THOUGHTS
Once again you can’t control injuries, but you can take advantage of them the next week.
Don’t get too cute trying to avoid players in GPPs that it cost you money in the long run. Same can be said for varying your cash games line-ups. Don’t do it just for the sake of doing it!
I am still trying to figure out for myself how many cash game LU to play each week. I started out the first three weeks with two. This week I went to four. Still playing around with that.
Don’t let biases come into play when picking players. I would say a lot of people wish they would have been playing Dalton a few times the last few weeks.
If your core players have a bad week, you are going to have a bad week!
I get caught up through the week on certain players for various reasons, my own thoughts on the player, the matchup, the “experts” thoughts, whatever. My core players are formed from those thoughts. I have found it very helpful to take a step back, and get away from things for a few hours, usually overnight. Then go back and look at the players nobody are talking about, but still have reasonable upside. I always find a player or two that I had completely forgot about!
Luck will remain a factor no matter what: (injuries, penalties on scoring/big scoring plays. Guy getting tackled on long pass play or run at 1 yard line, and sub coming in to get TD, etc., etc. etc.)
I am trying to make “luck” as small a factor as possible in the long run!
As it stands, I am keeping my head above water after four weeks. I hope to be dog paddling at least in the coming weeks!
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