My Pats Projections (1 Viewer)

[simey]

IMO, Woodhead is not built to see a lotmore action or he might break into a thousand pieces. Don't get me wrong, he's a good little player . . . with little being one of the key phrases.

wes welker is little too, and he gets a lot of action. branch is also little.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

IMO, Woodhead is not built to see a lotmore action or he might break into a thousand pieces. Don't get me wrong, he's a good little player . . . with little being one of the key phrases.

I know it was against far inferior competition but he did lead the entire NCAA in rushing yards - that at least shows he can handle a heavy workload. He did famously get creamed on one play this preseason, but that happens to almost every back every now and then.I'm not saying I disagree on your numbers for him - because when it comes to the Pats we're all just guessing - but once again Woodhead seems to suffer the same fate as Peyton Hillis in that his past results just seem to get pushed aside because he doesn't look like a typical RB.

 

[aburt19]

IMO, Woodhead is not built to see a lotmore action or he might break into a thousand pieces. Don't get me wrong, he's a good little player . . . with little being one of the key phrases.

wes welker is little too, and he gets a lot of action. branch is also little.

There is a reason that the careers of running backs is shorter than that of wide receivers. They take more punishment than WR. A wide receiveris most often tackled by a 200 lb cornerback or safety instead of a 320 lb defensive lineman. There's very little comparison between the two.

 

[simey]

IMO, Woodhead is not built to see a lotmore action or he might break into a thousand pieces. Don't get me wrong, he's a good little player . . . with little being one of the key phrases.

wes welker is little too, and he gets a lot of action. branch is also little.

There is a reason that the careers of running backs is shorter than that of wide receivers. They take more punishment than WR. A wide receiveris most often tackled by a 200 lb cornerback or safety instead of a 320 lb defensive lineman. There's very little comparison between the two.

i'm aware of that, but welker gets popped going over the middle all the time, and I consider woodhead half receiver since he catches a lot of passes.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

They drafted 2 rookies in the first 3 rounds because they felt they could get more out of the running back position.

This is where I have to slightly disagree. IMO, they drafted two RBs because the guy they drafted highly was a bust (Maroney), their 3rd down back was on IR and ancient (Faulk), and they had two other guys that were well into their 30s (Taylor and Morris).They needed bodies, they needed depth, and they needed youth. BJGE and Woodhead aren't old by any stretch.

I agree, in theory, that drafting two RBs would lead someone to think that they were eager to play them if they offered something better.

But BJGE and Woodhead combined for a 4.8 ypc, 2019 yards from scrimmage, and 19 total TD. How much more production do they think they can get out of the RB position?

I would tend to agree with you if the tandem had a 3.3 ypc, barely cracked 1000 yards between them, and could never get in the end zone. But the BJGE/Woodhead combo, as lack as glamorous as it was, but up Priest Holmes numbers. When you add in the fact that Green Ellis doesn't fumble, there is even less reason to make a serious recalibration and change in direction.

The main issue seems to always be in NE . . . which guys get hurt and which guys can stay healthy. I think that axiom will hold true again. For now, both the rookies are the ones that are banged up and are working off of a limited preseason/training camp. I doubt that will help either of their causes.

Hi David, as usual you have done a very good and thorough job. Having said that I have to respectfully nitpick and dissagree in one area and side with those that believe you are underestimating the rookies and the reasoning behind why they were drafted. Last year I felt you underestimated Benny (basically calling him a stiff) and now this year you are (imho) over estimating him by believing he is almost certain to be the starter all year unless he gets hurt.

I think we both agree that Benny is a pretty avg back and NE feels the same way. They didn't draft the rooks for depth (2nd & 3rd round), they drafted them to get better at the position. You can't on the one hand call Benny a jag and then on the other ask how the Patriots can possibly expect to do any better. They can absolutley do better than Benny, much better........We don't know if Ridley and Vereen are better than avg, but we do know that Benny isn't.

We haven't seen what Vereen can do, but Ridley clearly looks a little bigger, quicker and faster than Benny. He also caught almost as many balls part time in just 2 pre season games as Benny did all of last year. Yes, it could be pre-season fools gold, but you might be seriously underestimating the possibility of Ridley taking Bennys job or eating into his carries and goal line touches.

Obviously it is far from a lock since Ridley is a rookie without even the benefit of OTAs. However, there is no denying the kid is a high draft pick and has looked good (quicker, faster and better hands) so I think the opportunity is very real. Provided Ridley stays healthy (same as Benny) I don't believe he needs an injury to Benny to get on the field, I think he needs to show he can handle the playbook, blitz pickups etc. If he does those things there is imho, a very, very strong possibility that he takes the job or at the very least gets serious playing time.

 

[djmich]

Great discussion in here and really good insight from Yudkin. I think his point that the parts have to equal the sum is a good one, you can make a case for every player doing more or at least equal to last year and the new guys getting some. But it doesn't add up.

Agree that barring major injuries the RB show this year looks a lot like the show last year, with small variations.

 

[djmich]

They drafted 2 rookies in the first 3 rounds because they felt they could get more out of the running back position.

This is where I have to slightly disagree. IMO, they drafted two RBs because the guy they drafted highly was a bust (Maroney), their 3rd down back was on IR and ancient (Faulk), and they had two other guys that were well into their 30s (Taylor and Morris).They needed bodies, they needed depth, and they needed youth. BJGE and Woodhead aren't old by any stretch.

I agree, in theory, that drafting two RBs would lead someone to think that they were eager to play them if they offered something better.

But BJGE and Woodhead combined for a 4.8 ypc, 2019 yards from scrimmage, and 19 total TD. How much more production do they think they can get out of the RB position?

I would tend to agree with you if the tandem had a 3.3 ypc, barely cracked 1000 yards between them, and could never get in the end zone. But the BJGE/Woodhead combo, as lack as glamorous as it was, but up Priest Holmes numbers. When you add in the fact that Green Ellis doesn't fumble, there is even less reason to make a serious recalibration and change in direction.

The main issue seems to always be in NE . . . which guys get hurt and which guys can stay healthy. I think that axiom will hold true again. For now, both the rookies are the ones that are banged up and are working off of a limited preseason/training camp. I doubt that will help either of their causes.

Hi David, as usual you have done a very good and thorough job. Having said that I have to respectfully nitpick and dissagree in one area and side with those that believe you are underestimating the rookies and the reasoning behind why they were drafted. Last year I felt you underestimated Benny (basically calling him a stiff) and now this year you are (imho) over estimating him by believing he is almost certain to be the starter all year unless he gets hurt.

I think we both agree that Benny is a pretty avg back and NE feels the same way. They didn't draft the rooks for depth (2nd & 3rd round), they drafted them to get better at the position. You can't on the one hand call Benny a jag and then on the other ask how the Patriots can possibly expect to do any better. They can absolutley do better than Benny, much better........We don't know if Ridley and Vereen are better than avg, but we do know that Benny isn't.

We haven't seen what Vereen can do, but Ridley clearly looks a little bigger, quicker and faster than Benny. He also caught almost as many balls part time in just 2 pre season games as Benny did all of last year. Yes, it could be pre-season fools gold, but you might be seriously underestimating the possibility of Ridley taking Bennys job or eating into his carries and goal line touches.

Obviously it is far from a lock since Ridley is a rookie without even the benefit of OTAs. However, there is no denying the kid is a high draft pick and has looked good (quicker, faster and better hands) so I think the opportunity is very real. Provided Ridley stays healthy (same as Benny) I don't believe he needs an injury to Benny to get on the field, I think he needs to show he can handle the playbook, blitz pickups etc. If he does those things there is imho, a very, very strong possibility that he takes the job or at the very least gets serious playing time.

I think the bolded are huge when it comes to Belicheck, particularly the "etc" which would include holding on to the ball. BJGE has fumbled less in his entire professional career than Ridley has in a few preseason carries.The rooks will get some time this year, and I think your prediction is correct just probably early (barring injury).

 

[bigunreal]

Danny Woodhead will play this season at 200 lbs, and is 5'8. Maurice Jones Drew is actually smaller, at only 5'7, but weighs 5-10 lbs more now. No one ever called him too "little" and he has been a workhorse back for years. Ray Rice is listed at 5'8, 212 lbs. I think the difference between him and Woodhead is about 10 lbs of fat. If Rice can handle perhaps more touches than any other back in the league, Woodhead can handle a much larger load. There have been numerous backs in recent years playing at 200 lbs, and none were considered too "small" to play a larger role.

It's safe to say that neither Rice nor MJD will ever average 5.6 yards per carry, or 11.1 yards per reception. But then again, how many RBs ever have? Woodhead should be the focal point of their offense.

 

[Wadsworth]

Danny Woodhead will play this season at 200 lbs, and is 5'8. Maurice Jones Drew is actually smaller, at only 5'7, but weighs 5-10 lbs more now. No one ever called him too "little" and he has been a workhorse back for years. Ray Rice is listed at 5'8, 212 lbs. I think the difference between him and Woodhead is about 10 lbs of fat. If Rice can handle perhaps more touches than any other back in the league, Woodhead can handle a much larger load. There have been numerous backs in recent years playing at 200 lbs, and none were considered too "small" to play a larger role.



It's safe to say that neither Rice nor MJD will ever average 5.6 yards per carry, or 11.1 yards per reception. But then again, how many RBs ever have? Woodhead should be the focal point of their offense.

-You are way off base there. MJD has been called too small many many times, he's just proven the doubters wrong.-MJD averaged 5.7 per carry on 166 attempts as a rookie back up to Fred Taylor in a similar role to what Woodhead did for the Pats last season. MJD also had 15 TDs in that role. In a way that might support your idea that Woodhead should be getting more attention. But one major difference is that the Jaguars did not draft two RBs in the top 3 rounds the following year. I'd be a lot more excited about Woodhead if there weren't two rookies with potential breathing down his neck.

 

[Bri]

Edelman 10-125-1

that's almost a shame if this happens. Every time I get to see him play he is impressive and seems so very useful to a coach like BB. It makes me wish better things for him, maybe elsewhere.

 

[Bri]

Danny Woodhead will play this season at 200 lbs, and is 5'8. Maurice Jones Drew is actually smaller, at only 5'7, but weighs 5-10 lbs more now. No one ever called him too "little" and he has been a workhorse back for years. Ray Rice is listed at 5'8, 212 lbs. I think the difference between him and Woodhead is about 10 lbs of fat. If Rice can handle perhaps more touches than any other back in the league, Woodhead can handle a much larger load. There have been numerous backs in recent years playing at 200 lbs, and none were considered too "small" to play a larger role. It's safe to say that neither Rice nor MJD will ever average 5.6 yards per carry, or 11.1 yards per reception. But then again, how many RBs ever have? Woodhead should be the focal point of their offense.

I don't think Woodhead is one of the best in the league. Granted you left little to debate on here, but there's no way I'd put him in MJD and Rice's class. You took somewhat of a leap drawing a conclusion here

 

[Run It Up]

He bulked up this offseason.

Also, he is in fact 5'7" not 5'8"/5'6", his height has been thrown around more then most players ive ever seen, when he was picked up by the Jets he was listed as 5'9", they later said he was 5'6", but it has been all but confirmed that he is a hair of 5'7".

I dont think its unfair at all to compare him to Rice and MJD for some things, but for other things it most definately is. He is much faster than Rice or MJD (his 40 time has always been below 4.4, at the combine his best and worst were 4.33 and 4.38 respecitvely), but has a more trim build but its still more alike than different in comparison. His lower center of gravity makes it much harder to stop him, you simply must drag or hit them to put em down. Its very hard to knock over someone that is 5'7" 200+lbs. If the dude could put on 10-15 more lbs he would be a force in the patriots system.

I think of all the pieces in the New England backfield he is the safest play, no matter what he will get his touches, he likely wont ever be the lead back unless he just develops into something the NFL hasnt seen before.

In my opinion we will be seeing quite a bit of Danny for a long time in New England, hes got great ball handling and pass catching abilities. He can run routes as well as any other running back ive seen and can fill most RB roles on the spot.

 

[bigunreal]

I'm not saying Woodhead is in their class. I'm saying that, based upon the way he performed in the first opportunity he had, he put up numbers that rival any RBs in the league. Maybe that was his ceiling. Maybe he would wear down if he was used more often. But we'll never know that unless he gets the chance. I don't know, but if I was coaching a team with a playmaker like that, I'd certainly want to get the ball in his hands a lot more often.

I apologize for overlooking MJD's rookie numbers. Looks like his start was very comparable to Woodhead's. Let's hope that Woodhead eventually gets a chance for a bigger role. Btw, I wasn't quibbling with the projected numbers for Woodhead. With Vereen and Ridley being drafted so high, it's certainly a reasonable assumption that his role could diminish. I was questioning WHY the Patriots would draft two backs so early in the draft.

 

[skillz]

David,

What's your thoughts on the defense this year? How much improved from 2010 do you think they will be?

 

[Jayrod]

I think you have undersold both Brady & Ocho. This will be a bit like Randy Moss' first year, except not record breaking...but I think it will be better than what you have shown.

 

[Jayrod]

I dunno. They looked kinda lost against the Lions last week as well as end of last year losing to the Jets in the playoffs. I have Brady #1 QB but may need some homer reassurance beyond "Yeah, yeah, preseason, etc." Questions are emerging as to whether that offense can function as smoothly when faced with high-pressure defenses.

Brady is fixing to go bananas again. Not quire the magic of 2007, but 40+ TD's and 4500+ yards is what I am seeing. He is a fierce competitor sensing his time is closing, has a boatload of weapons around him and a coach who is a fanatic about finding mismatches and out-coaching his opponents. This is a perfect storm for greatness and I've picked up Brady in every league I can.

 

[David Yudkin]

David,What's your thoughts on the defense this year? How much improved from 2010 do you think they will be?

I am not sure of what the context of the question is (fantasy or real life)?IMO, the Pats defense will do better on third down, maybe get some more sacks, and give up fewer yards and probably fewer points. Put I don't see them getting as many turnovers or scores from the defense.Is that a net gain, a loss or a push? I'm not sure that amounts to better or improved. Probably better from an NFL perspective, fantasy wise probably worse.

 

[skillz]

David,What's your thoughts on the defense this year? How much improved from 2010 do you think they will be?

I am not sure of what the context of the question is (fantasy or real life)?IMO, the Pats defense will do better on third down, maybe get some more sacks, and give up fewer yards and probably fewer points. Put I don't see them getting as many turnovers or scores from the defense.Is that a net gain, a loss or a push? I'm not sure that amounts to better or improved. Probably better from an NFL perspective, fantasy wise probably worse.

I was thinking fantasy. Thanks for your insight.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Woodhead undervalued by everyone

With fewer RBs on the roster last year, Woodhead averaged 7 carries and 2.5 receptions a game once he joined the Pats. Over 16 games, that would be 112 carries and 40 receptions. This year there are three more backs to fight for touches with (Faulk, Vereen, and Ridley).What workload and production level are you suggesting he will get?

Woodhead's workload last year:97 carries

34 receptions

He didn't play weeks 1-2. Barely played week 3. Barely played week 17 (like most key members of the squad). Seems reasonable to strip out those weeks.

So in weeks 4-16 (12 games, week 5 bye) Woodhead had:

92 carries (7.7 per game)

34 receptions (2.9 per game)

That projects to 123 carries, 45 receptions over the span of 16 games. Yes, I'm nitpicking, but it's important to at least have a logical starting point.

Projection:

120 carries (7.5 per game)

4.5 ypc

540 yards

4 TDs

48 receptions (3 per game)

9 ypr

430 yards

2 TDs

Total: 970 yards, 6 TDs

Those are my projections. Lofty? Perhaps.

BTW, why are people assuming that Vereen/Ridley will steal touches from Woodhead? Why not from BJGE? Vereen barely had time to learn the playbook - given BB's track record with rookies, why should we assume that he even gets on the field more than a handful of snaps? Ridley produced against a bunch of stiffs. How does that translate against actual NFL-caliber players? Faulk is old.....probably doesn't belong on an NFL roster anymore. We'll see if he makes the squad.

Woodhead looked good in preseason. Looked like he deserved a role this year. Hard to see that role getting smaller. Think he offers more flexibility than BJGE. Wouldn't be surprised to see his role mildly increase.

Edit to add: David, you know I'm a huge fan of your Pats team insights. If you've heard specific things that tell you "Woodhead's role is definitely set to decline" then I'm all ears. But that's not what I've seen you saying so far. Rather, I've seen mostly speculation. Again, very open to other info, so please clarify if I've misinterpreted. Very much appreciate your perspective.

As I mentioned above, last year boiled down to basically BJGE and Woodhead and no other RB options. This year (at least at the moment), they have Faulk, Vereen, and Ridley to add into the mix. We don't know what we don't know, but IMO it may make some sense to think that if the Pats burned a 2nd and a 3rd round pick on RBs that they probably plan to get them some action during the season. Maybe not a ton, but some. Faulk will probably miss the first 5 games, and if he comes back that's another mouth to feed.As for cutting back the workload of BJGE, I did . . . by 50-55 carries.

IMO, Woodhead is not built to see a lotmore action or he might break into a thousand pieces. Don't get me wrong, he's a good little player . . . with little being one of the key phrases.

My projections above don't require him to see a lot more action. Rather, it requires him to see almost identical usage as last season.

 

[Jayrod]

I dunno. They looked kinda lost against the Lions last week as well as end of last year losing to the Jets in the playoffs. I have Brady #1 QB but may need some homer reassurance beyond "Yeah, yeah, preseason, etc." Questions are emerging as to whether that offense can function as smoothly when faced with high-pressure defenses.

Brady is fixing to go bananas again. Not quire the magic of 2007, but 40+ TD's and 4500+ yards is what I am seeing. He is a fierce competitor sensing his time is closing, has a boatload of weapons around him and a coach who is a fanatic about finding mismatches and out-coaching his opponents. This is a perfect storm for greatness and I've picked up Brady in every league I can.

 

[Jayrod]

I think you have undersold both Brady & Ocho. This will be a bit like Randy Moss' first year, except not record breaking...but I think it will be better than what you have shown.

:whoosh:

 

[greenline]

Not a big fan of the Pats pass defense last night. Huge chunks of yards. Makes me a little nervous.

 

[parrot]

Not a big fan of the Pats pass defense last night. Huge chunks of yards. Makes me a little nervous.

Didn't see the improvement in the pass rush I was hoping for. The offense was awesome but Henne hanging 400 on the D is cause for concern.

 

[RUSF18]

Not a big fan of the Pats pass defense last night. Huge chunks of yards. Makes me a little nervous.

As a Rutgers guy I watched McCourty very closely last season and felt he deserved his accolades, I was very surprised at how easily Marshall beat him on some plays.

 

[RUSF18]

Why are you expecting Gronkowski to regress in receptions?

He had 42 last year, and you are only projecting 40 receptions for him this year?

ETA: Those numbers you are projecting for Hernandez are top 5 TE numbers

The first half of last year, Hernandez was on pace for 70-900. Halfway through the season, he got hurt and did not play as much or as well the rest of the season. At that point (8 games), Gronk had 14 receptions. I only took away 2 receptions, it's not like I took away half his production. Why does he half to do better? Aren't doing the same or slightly worse options?

Because he's Rob Gronkowski!

no reason to doubt those numbers, but you've made some clear statements with them David:

1. Ridley does not emerge

despite the preseason hype, Ridley doesn't take over for the non-fumbling BJGE

2. Ocho doesn't catch on

you buy into the notion that Ocho is struggling with the playbook/terminology - so do I.

3. Brady tears it up

despite Ocho struggling, the Pats are loaded with weapons for Brady

4. Gronk/Hernandez

The TEs are now like the WRs, some are yardage guys, some are goal line guys. Gronk and Hernandez have both had great camps.

Sorry for the bump, but this was one of those threads I wanted to check in on later in the season. Pretty solid job by both you guys so far.