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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (2 Viewers)

The market is absolutely nuts. I don't know why I even try to understand it. After three consecutive days of 10-15% gains, I'm now down 22% and dropping. Of course I'm too dumb and/or greedy to have locked in profits when I could have. This morning on my ride into work I was feely quite ducky and was actually thinking about applying to have my Ameritrade account turned into a margin account. After today, there is no way I'm doing that. I don't think I could handle the stress of margin calls. This market is definitely not for the faint of heart. I should let these stocks do their thing and not worry unless huge news comes out, however, I don't believe I'm capable of that at this point.
Both these stocks are pump and dumper delights. Neither have any earnings, both have had abysmal earnings growth over virtually any period. They're only up because of rumors. Using margin for stocks like these is a recipe for disaster. If you're down 22% in a day using your own cash, multiply that by 2 and you'd feel the pain of using margin on stocks like these.The stock market has very, very little to do with this. Buy quality companies in a momentum phase, and you can do very well. Buy pump and dumpers and you can get left holding a very big bag.
Can you go into a little more detail how you identity momentum phase comps?
Sure. I have a couple of screens that I use to weed out the chaff, and then I typically drop the low volume stocks off that list. I generally look for either a) companies with a high ROIC combined with a high earnings yield; or b) companies with a solid earnings growth over the last 5 yrs, combined with a low debt/capital ratio and a solid base of institutional investors. If a stock doesn't appear on this screen, I'd still buy it if the fundamentals were great and I wanted to play a hot sector (ATW fit that bill).Once I have that list, I watch for moving average crossovers, or if I missed a run-up, stocks that start to form bullish patterns, like a triple top (which JOYG formed last week). I've tracked Bollinger Band plays, but I haven't found that to work for me.

This combo of fundamental and technical analysis has done me pretty well this year, when I really started putting time and energy into my stock research.

In the future, I'll be more proactive about posting what I think could be a solid play. I'm sorry to have not posted about JOYG or Netease.com (NTES), both of which I found through these screens and have hit HRs with. But this board seems to like the pennies anyway. :thumbup:

Another stock that has a great ROIC and high earnings yield is Innophos Holdings (IPHS), and I took a small position in that one last week at a price similar to today's close. With a PE ratio of 1.55 and a Forward PE of under 9, it's still undervalued versus its peer group.
I really like your formula. This thread nudged me into talking with an adviser and I have start retirement accounts for my wife and I, as well as 529s for the kids...there are a few positions with which I am long. We just rolled over some CD's and purchased some equities in oil services along with aluminum and steel manufactureers...some of which were mentioned in this thread. But I don't post about that as I see this topic as a more "short term make money and get out" type of thread. I started with 7500, so of course I want to find bargains set to jump...which I post about.However, I would love to hear more about long positions in mid and large cap.
:moneybag: Losts of value and speculation in here, which is great, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on momentum and growth stocks as well.

 
Analog, I agree with you about this being a short-term trading thread, but I've changed my tune and believe this market is all about short-term trading -- as evidenced by the great number of successes in this thread.

I'll hold a stock as long as it keeps running, and I'll be patient with a few losers, but buy and hold died a quick death last year. I admit this thread changed my thinking about investing, and it coincided with a job change that gave me the ability to short-term trade (i.e. I don't have my statements going to an interested party -- the boss -- any longer).

I've been far more successful with short-term trading over the last 3 months than I have with long-term buy and hold over any investing year.

 
Year to Date Profit = $136,503

Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses = +796

2,000 FAZ - Profit = $260 - 12

500 EEV - Profit = $560 -12

Unrealized Gains/Losses

9,000 DRYS @ 7.50

2,000 SBLK @ 5.08

8,000 KERX @ 1.13

10,000 PRGN @ 5.36

Comments: I made a lot of mistakes this week with the biggest sleeping in this morning. PRGN was up at the levels I wanted and had I done that, I think I could have cost averaged down on DRYS to be in a lot better position there too. The DRYS news killed that stock for a bit (although I think it's a huge over-reaction) and now the BDI is heading lower. I am going to look to get active Monday and Tuesday trading the swings and better positioning this portfolio while trying not to suffer big losses.

 
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They had already sold most of these prior to earnings. The last ones just sold for $5.45 based on that report.
Um, are you sure about that? This looks like a new offer?
This should clear it up:"The sale of these additional shares was completed on June 2, 2009 and resulted in net proceeds to us of approximately $42.6 million"

 
Analog, I agree with you about this being a short-term trading thread, but I've changed my tune and believe this market is all about short-term trading -- as evidenced by the great number of successes in this thread.I'll hold a stock as long as it keeps running, and I'll be patient with a few losers, but buy and hold died a quick death last year. I admit this thread changed my thinking about investing, and it coincided with a job change that gave me the ability to short-term trade (i.e. I don't have my statements going to an interested party -- the boss -- any longer).I've been far more successful with short-term trading over the last 3 months than I have with long-term buy and hold over any investing year.
There's little doubt in my mind that trading day to day, or week to week to week, money can be made. However, we gobbled up some GE stock and Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae for almost nothing. These stocks aren't going to make us anything in the short term, but a few years from now, maybe. I don't watch them on a daily basis, but I do keep an eye on them. Hell, we grabbed some CENX at $1.60 and now it's in the $6 range.Bottom line...we went from mostly CDs to stocks and CDs, and this little chunk of trading that I do. Money can be had, as long as you take the time to look.
 
Current holdings

PRGN 1000 shares @ $5.33. Currently @ $5.46 +2.44%

GNVC 1000 shares @.79. Currently at .82 +3.81%

 
The way I read it, it looks like a new offering to me. I copied the first 2 paragraphs and a sentence from page s-7.

PROSPECTUS SUPPLEMENT Filed Pursuant to 424(b)(5)

(To Prospectus dated August 12, 2008) Registration No. 333-152979

10,000,000 Common Shares

This prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus dated August 12, 2008, relate to the offer and sale of up to 10,000,000 of our common shares, $0.001 par value per share, from time to time through Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., as our agent, pursuant to an amended sales agreement with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. dated June 4, 2009 for the offer and sale of the common shares.

We have previously sold 10,000,000 of our common shares under the sales agreement with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. pursuant to a separate prospectus supplement dated April 15, 2009. The sale of these additional shares was completed on June 2, 2009 and resulted in net proceeds to us of approximately $42.6 million.

and from page S-7

If we sell all of the 10,000,000 of our common shares offered pursuant to this prospectus supplement, we will have approximately 47,179,115 common shares outstanding,

 
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This looks to confirm it.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/140...1993_ex99-1.htm

AMENDMENT NO. 1 TO CONTROLLED EQUITY OFFERINGSM

SALES AGREEMENT

This Amendment No. 1 (this “Amendment No. 1”) to the Controlled Equity OfferingSM Sales Agreement, dated April 15, 2009 (the “Agreement”), between Paragon Shipping Inc., a corporation incorporated under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (the “Company”), and Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. (“CF&Co.”) is made and entered into as of the 4th day of June, 2009, by and among the parties hereto. Terms used and not otherwise defined herein have the meanings ascribed to them in the Agreement.

W I T N E S S E T H:

WHEREAS, the parties hereto desire to amend the Agreement.

NOW, THEREFORE, in consideration of the foregoing and for other good and valuable consideration, the parties hereto agree as follows:

SECTION 1. Amendment of the Agreement.

(a) On and after the date hereof, any reference in the Agreement to (i) “10,000,000” shall be deemed to read “20,000,000” and (ii) “ten million” shall be deemed to read “twenty million”.

 
####, hopefully i can dump on Monday before everyone notices this.

It is an additional 10 million shares. there first offering which has been completed took them from 27 million shares to 37 million. If they complete this new offering it will take them to 47 million.

So in total an almost 50% dilution.

####, ####, ####. Hoping i can get out over $5 at opening Monday.

 
####, hopefully i can dump on Monday before everyone notices this.It is an additional 10 million shares. there first offering which has been completed took them from 27 million shares to 37 million. If they complete this new offering it will take them to 47 million.So in total an almost 50% dilution.####, ####, ####. Hoping i can get out over $5 at opening Monday.
Holy hell this is awful. I don't doubt they will likely do good things with this money, but I too am looking to bail out of here if I can on Monday and look for a better spot.
 
####, hopefully i can dump on Monday before everyone notices this.It is an additional 10 million shares. there first offering which has been completed took them from 27 million shares to 37 million. If they complete this new offering it will take them to 47 million.So in total an almost 50% dilution.####, ####, ####. Hoping i can get out over $5 at opening Monday.
Holy hell this is awful. I don't doubt they will likely do good things with this money, but I too am looking to bail out of here if I can on Monday and look for a better spot.
Well now we know why they are not buying shares
 
This looks to confirm it.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/140...1993_ex99-1.htm

AMENDMENT NO. 1 TO CONTROLLED EQUITY OFFERINGSM

SALES AGREEMENT

This Amendment No. 1 (this “Amendment No. 1”) to the Controlled Equity OfferingSM Sales Agreement, dated April 15, 2009 (the “Agreement”), between Paragon Shipping Inc., a corporation incorporated under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (the “Company”), and Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. (“CF&Co.”) is made and entered into as of the 4th day of June, 2009, by and among the parties hereto. Terms used and not otherwise defined herein have the meanings ascribed to them in the Agreement.

W I T N E S S E T H:

WHEREAS, the parties hereto desire to amend the Agreement.

NOW, THEREFORE, in consideration of the foregoing and for other good and valuable consideration, the parties hereto agree as follows:

SECTION 1. Amendment of the Agreement.

(a) On and after the date hereof, any reference in the Agreement to (i) “10,000,000” shall be deemed to read “20,000,000” and (ii) “ten million” shall be deemed to read “twenty million”.
All the Greek shipper holding companies are shady.
 
####, hopefully i can dump on Monday before everyone notices this.It is an additional 10 million shares. there first offering which has been completed took them from 27 million shares to 37 million. If they complete this new offering it will take them to 47 million.So in total an almost 50% dilution.####, ####, ####. Hoping i can get out over $5 at opening Monday.
Holy hell this is awful. I don't doubt they will likely do good things with this money, but I too am looking to bail out of here if I can on Monday and look for a better spot.
Well now we know why they are not buying shares
I think it's clear to me why this company laged the rest of the drys on a P/E ratio. They just finished selling the 10M shares this week. And now that they are done they want to issue 10M more? Even with a lights out 2Q this stock wont have nearly as low P/E after this next 10M.I expect a big sell off on monday.
 
Oof. I'm not in PRGN right now, but I'm heavy in DRYS. I wonder if this is going to affect the rest of the sector too...

 
A buddy recommended CHK, and I think I may get out of the dry shippers and into that on Monday. Natural Gas is still pretty cheap, and prices are expected to jump way up as the economy continues to improve. Fundamentally it's a very sound company. But the technical analysis is also very bullish right now.

If you look at the chart here, you can see that it has been supported by the 50 day MA and just recently also jumped over the 200 day. All the other indicators are good, and it looks like the trend should continue. At 22 or 23 bucks this could be a steal.

My buddy's play is options, and that's probably where I'll go. I think he bought Oct '09 or Jan '10 options at around a $25 strike -- I'm going to find out exactly what he is playing, and probably do the same. If the trend holds, that could be a fairly easy double up right there.

 
A buddy recommended CHK, and I think I may get out of the dry shippers and into that on Monday. Natural Gas is still pretty cheap, and prices are expected to jump way up as the economy continues to improve. Fundamentally it's a very sound company. But the technical analysis is also very bullish right now.

If you look at the chart here, you can see that it has been supported by the 50 day MA and just recently also jumped over the 200 day. All the other indicators are good, and it looks like the trend should continue. At 22 or 23 bucks this could be a steal.

My buddy's play is options, and that's probably where I'll go. I think he bought Oct '09 or Jan '10 options at around a $25 strike -- I'm going to find out exactly what he is playing, and probably do the same. If the trend holds, that could be a fairly easy double up right there.
If your going for individual companies, what do you think about UPL?http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UPL

As I have said before, when I get into N Gas UNG is going to be my play.

I think all are good plays if N Gas heads higher. Problem is the commodities players like N Gas more and more right now, but there are some arguments that there is so much supply of N Gas that it won’t crack higher for a long time. Of course, I hear the same about Oil.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UNG

 
A buddy recommended CHK, and I think I may get out of the dry shippers and into that on Monday. Natural Gas is still pretty cheap, and prices are expected to jump way up as the economy continues to improve. Fundamentally it's a very sound company. But the technical analysis is also very bullish right now.

If you look at the chart here, you can see that it has been supported by the 50 day MA and just recently also jumped over the 200 day. All the other indicators are good, and it looks like the trend should continue. At 22 or 23 bucks this could be a steal.

My buddy's play is options, and that's probably where I'll go. I think he bought Oct '09 or Jan '10 options at around a $25 strike -- I'm going to find out exactly what he is playing, and probably do the same. If the trend holds, that could be a fairly easy double up right there.
If your going for individual companies, what do you think about UPL?http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UPL

As I have said before, when I get into N Gas UNG is going to be my play.

I think all are good plays if N Gas heads higher. Problem is the commodities players like N Gas more and more right now, but there are some arguments that there is so much supply of N Gas that it won’t crack higher for a long time. Of course, I hear the same about Oil.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UNG
The same buddy who suggested CHK is also very very big on UNG.
 
I dont quite understand the point of selling 10 million more shares when you are going to buying them back? Someone explain that to me.

Also, why doesnt this create an article and is hidden in the fine print? You would think that this is big investor news.

 
I dont quite understand the point of selling 10 million more shares when you are going to buying them back? Someone explain that to me.Also, why doesnt this create an article and is hidden in the fine print? You would think that this is big investor news.
Paragon is a relatively new company. They probably overpaid a bit for their fleet of ships as prices hit rock bottom this year. This is why it's funny to read about a glt of expected ships in the sector once everyone takes possession of their new builds. DRYS just cancelled their ship this week (and most other shippers will too, because they bought at the peak last year and prices are now about 50% of those levels).PRGN smartly though never had any ship orders when the rates were real crazy (last year). So although they are extremely profitable, they have a lot of debt against their initial ship purchases. Raising 100M though changes that pretty quickly with the two stock offerings. Whether they pay down the debt or actually get some more ships (at repressed prices), these moves will likely help them in the long run. But dilution is just that in the short run. Earnings per share will be way off for quarter 2. I am not sure where I stand with these guys. I hate this dilution, but it's not to be impressed with their ability to run this company profitably. I think this cash is likely a move to get more ships.So how could dilution and re-purchase work for PRGN?This dilution further drives the price down. But let's say PRGN has a gentleman's agreement to purchase some vessels soon. So they know once these ships are online, profits will improve quickly. So as the price drops, PRGN is buying back more shares. They then make the big announcement and the stock pops. The next quarter with more ships PRGN's earnings jump way up. They raise the dividend post earnings going forward and the stock further jumps. PRGN then sells these shares and has more capital to buy even more ships. So longer term, I actually kind of like these moves. I just wish I did not already have a ton of shares that are clearly going to be worth a lot less Monday morning. Not going to panic here though. I still think PRGN will start buying shares back and that should stabilize the stock from completely falling off a cliff.
 
I dont quite understand the point of selling 10 million more shares when you are going to buying them back? Someone explain that to me.Also, why doesnt this create an article and is hidden in the fine print? You would think that this is big investor news.
Paragon is a relatively new company. They probably overpaid a bit for their fleet of ships as prices hit rock bottom this year. This is why it's funny to read about a glt of expected ships in the sector once everyone takes possession of their new builds. DRYS just cancelled their ship this week (and most other shippers will too, because they bought at the peak last year and prices are now about 50% of those levels).PRGN smartly though never had any ship orders when the rates were real crazy (last year). So although they are extremely profitable, they have a lot of debt against their initial ship purchases. Raising 100M though changes that pretty quickly with the two stock offerings. Whether they pay down the debt or actually get some more ships (at repressed prices), these moves will likely help them in the long run. But dilution is just that in the short run. Earnings per share will be way off for quarter 2. I am not sure where I stand with these guys. I hate this dilution, but it's not to be impressed with their ability to run this company profitably. I think this cash is likely a move to get more ships.So how could dilution and re-purchase work for PRGN?This dilution further drives the price down. But let's say PRGN has a gentleman's agreement to purchase some vessels soon. So they know once these ships are online, profits will improve quickly. So as the price drops, PRGN is buying back more shares. They then make the big announcement and the stock pops. The next quarter with more ships PRGN's earnings jump way up. They raise the dividend post earnings going forward and the stock further jumps. PRGN then sells these shares and has more capital to buy even more ships. So longer term, I actually kind of like these moves. I just wish I did not already have a ton of shares that are clearly going to be worth a lot less Monday morning. Not going to panic here though. I still think PRGN will start buying shares back and that should stabilize the stock from completely falling off a cliff.
So....Maybe monday morning there is an overreaction to all this and by the afternoon there's a terrific buying opportunity again?I wouldn't sell at a loss just to panic for the exit door.
 
So real quick and dirty math here. If I understand right they are adding 10m shares to a 30m base. So that means our stock priced at $5.46 is now really worth $4.10? so if you can et out for more then 4.10ish it would be wise to bail.

Thoughts?

 
So real quick and dirty math here. If I understand right they are adding 10m shares to a 30m base. So that means our stock priced at $5.46 is now really worth $4.10? so if you can et out for more then 4.10ish it would be wise to bail.Thoughts?
That math isn't exactly right though. Because they are selling the shares for dollars. And those dollars can pay down debt, buy more ships etc. Either of these things likely helps this company out longer term. I too am probably selling unless it's down a lot in the pre-market. After these two dilutions, they have about $100M in cash. That's significant.
 
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Sorry to see the PRGN news guys. Best of luck in getting out as unscathed as possible. Hopefully nobody is overexposed here.

 
I think my level is going to be $5.10 on PRGN. If it's above this level at market open I am looking to sell. If below it, I think my strategy will be to accumulate shares and exit later.

 
So real quick and dirty math here. If I understand right they are adding 10m shares to a 30m base. So that means our stock priced at $5.46 is now really worth $4.10? so if you can et out for more then 4.10ish it would be wise to bail.Thoughts?
That math isn't exactly right though. Because they are selling the shares for dollars. And those dollars can pay down debt, buy more ships etc. Either of these things likely helps this company out longer term. I too am probably selling unless it's down a lot in the pre-market. After these two dilutions, they have about $100M in cash. That's significant.
Right there will be over $1 per share worth of extra cash on the books. It is important that they earn a return on that cash equal to or better than their current ROA or ROE. I wonder if this is to make the company more attractive for a stock buyout?I actually dont think things will tank that much. And if they do smart people will be loading up.
 
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So real quick and dirty math here. If I understand right they are adding 10m shares to a 30m base. So that means our stock priced at $5.46 is now really worth $4.10? so if you can et out for more then 4.10ish it would be wise to bail.Thoughts?
That math isn't exactly right though. Because they are selling the shares for dollars. And those dollars can pay down debt, buy more ships etc. Either of these things likely helps this company out longer term. I too am probably selling unless it's down a lot in the pre-market. After these two dilutions, they have about $100M in cash. That's significant.
Right there will be over $1 per share worth of extra cash on the books. It is important that they earn a return on that cash equal to or better than their current ROA or ROE. I wonder if this is to make the company more attractive for a stock buyout?I actually dont think things will tank that much. And if they do smart people will be loading up.
I've said this theory a few times, but I still think JP Morgan is going to be a major investor in PRGN here. Something is definitely afoot to have two dilutions to raise capital when by all signs , PRGN looks healthy. PRGN did not add any ships when the prices were high. If they were to combine with a bank and double their FLEET now to around 20 ships, they would be a HUGE player in this sector and buying in near the bottom. I hate the dilution short-term, but it has me very interested in what is coming.
 
And XOMA might becoming the next chase the MM biotech play today.
Jene, If I'm reading this correctly, XOMA052 is being hyped as a potential cure for type 2 diabetes?http://finance.yahoo.com/news/XOMA-052-Cli...57818.html?.v=1

"It is well-recognized that IL-1 beta levels are up-regulated in response to elevated glucose. This causes an auto-inflammatory process in insulin-producing cells that can lead to their death and reduced insulin secretion," said Dr. Donath. "If, as we hypothesize, the inhibition of IL-1 beta improves the condition of insulin-producing cells in patients by breaking the vicious cycle of glucotoxicity, the implications would be very promising for the treatment of the disease."

"We continue to develop evidence supporting one of the most significant potential medical advances in decades -- a move from insulin therapy to anti-inflammatory treatment of patients with Type 2 diabetes. Our results have provided not only the safety data that is typical in a Phase 1 trial but also encouraging signs of biological activity," said Steven B. Engle, XOMA's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Recently, our first U.S. patent covering XOMA 052 issued and we completed enrollment of the Phase 1 program with 98 patients. We look forward to initiating Phase 2 trials in the third quarter of 2009."
 
Fidelity pre market standstill with Paragon, not a single share has traded hands yet. The bids don't look too promising for unloading 3500 shares in the 5.40 range. I'll see what happens when everyone else opens up at 08:00

BID ORDERS

ECN Shares Price

ARCA 100 5.35

ARCA 200 5.25

ARCA 200 5.05

ARCA 500 4.72

ARCA 1675 4.45

ARCA 100 4.00

ARCA 300 3.30

ARCA 201 3.06

ARCA 227 3.02

ARCA 150 3.00

Last [Tick] 5.46[ - ]

Volume 0

 
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Ok, I was able to sell everything at $5.45 once 08:00 rolled around.

I feel fortunate to get out unscathed (+$175 - commissions)

 
I'm back from my PRGN funded vacation. All my money is in cash and settled. What bandwagon do I need to jump on, or should I just wait today out since it looks to be a down one.

 
Be carful with KERX. Dodds is in so he wins, but if you look at the news headlines, they pretty much made a similar announcement on the 1st. That day, it gapped up from .70 to 1.45 at the high and sold off the rest of the week.

The insider buying is good news but that was the time to get in on a spec bet.

 
am dumping all my 30k shares of Paragon at open for whatever i can get.

then will be buying some $5 Dec puts and doing everything i can to spread the news about the dilution as the information hasn't really been made readily available yet.

 

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