David Dodds
Administrator
bought 1,000 shares of UNG a 13.93
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
David Dodds
Administrator
Just a heads up people, if you want into aluminum (CENX) it is back in where I bought in. I am looking to add some shares here too
David Dodds
Administrator
added 2,000 more CENX at 6.68
David Dodds
Administrator
waiting on Wells Fargo to get off their ### and get my account switched. Are you buying these contracts up? Seems like a slam dunk play.
playin4beer
Footballguy
Joined the HEB parade... in for 500 at $2.50
David Dodds
Administrator
Good luck. I really have no idea what to expect here. It feels closer to roulette than investing. But I am a sucker too and will hold my 1,000 shares regardless to how much lower it goes before announcement.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
If FDA were to give thumbs down, we still have swine flu hope:
http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+New...27/4722109.html
Best case scenario we get FDA approval and swine flu approval (as a vaccine adjunct)
http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+New...27/4722109.html
Best case scenario we get FDA approval and swine flu approval (as a vaccine adjunct)
siffoin
Footballguy
I had an order this AM to buy at $.15. Noticed they weren't filling on the put side, so I canceled the order.I'd like at minimum 1000 shares...so 10 contracts. I have an order in at $.03 (didn't fill), $0.00, and then order for credits $-.10 and $-.25...as I type the entry fee has gone up to $.15. Why isn't it filling...Vol on the Jan 14 Calls today is 1445 contracts...Vol on the Jan 14 Puts is 63 contracts...so getting a couple of put contracts filled is difficult. Massive bets being made to the Call side at every strike too.
David Dodds
Administrator
HEB is on the move - at 2.66 now.
David Dodds
Administrator
I may just buy in on the call side. I don't see a scenario where this goes lower
David Dodds
Administrator
The volume on UNG is INSANE:
Shares: 53.80M
9-Jun-09 71,002,648
8-Jun-09 58,979,807
5-Jun-09 44,086,167
4-Jun-09 72,312,168
3-Jun-09 52,292,269
and over 50 million today too
Shares: 53.80M
9-Jun-09 71,002,648
8-Jun-09 58,979,807
5-Jun-09 44,086,167
4-Jun-09 72,312,168
3-Jun-09 52,292,269
and over 50 million today too
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David Dodds
Administrator
no doubt although I am feeling it with both aluminum and natural gas though. Those are SAFE and a huge hedge against the dollar too. Buy and hold. Add on the dips
siffoin
Footballguy
I agree...but the better play is the Synthetic Stock...it is superior in this situation to long calls.
David Dodds
Administrator
UNG Accumulation
I added this last night, but thought everyone should look at it again. Look at the third grapgh as this is explaining the volume. People are ADDING.
Compare the prices of natural gas now (3.77 in June) against history, add in accumulation and this folks is $35/barrel oil (or 1.75 DXO for those of us that owned shares then). UNG is not leveraged, but there is no where for this to go but up. Storage is a short term issue that will go away. I believe I read somewhere that extraction costs about $4.25 so expect the rigs to keep getting shut down at these prices. The gap between oil and natural gas can't widen. It has not seen this difference since 1992.
Natural Gas History
If anyone wants a safe haven for their money until December, this is it.
I added this last night, but thought everyone should look at it again. Look at the third grapgh as this is explaining the volume. People are ADDING.
Compare the prices of natural gas now (3.77 in June) against history, add in accumulation and this folks is $35/barrel oil (or 1.75 DXO for those of us that owned shares then). UNG is not leveraged, but there is no where for this to go but up. Storage is a short term issue that will go away. I believe I read somewhere that extraction costs about $4.25 so expect the rigs to keep getting shut down at these prices. The gap between oil and natural gas can't widen. It has not seen this difference since 1992.
Natural Gas History
If anyone wants a safe haven for their money until December, this is it.
My first try at this, I have an open order at 0.15 debit. Do you NG gurus think it is worth going to 0.20 to ensure the trade?
The Z Machine
Footballguy
All red for me now. Been a while since that was the case. Ugh.
siffoin
Footballguy
Well done. I see your 2 contracts as the last filled.
Are you transferring to another broker or just applied to enable option trading? When I got my account option enabled they sent me a snail mail notification that it was processed, I could have just went to that screen like a week before I got the letter. You may want to just click on "Option Chain" in your account and see if it comes up. If it hasn't been enabled yet it will give you an error message saying you don't have permission.
SecondCity34
Footballguy
No doubt attributable to FBGs putting $$$ to work.
David Dodds
Administrator
This is a huge over-simplification of the process. Contango can hurt, but because of the Contango everyone expects higher prices. That's exactly when I want in. Has the Contango hurt the oil investors? These ETFs roll one week a month. Worst case is you buy/sell out of these rolls.
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Random
Footballguy
Ok. Just dug up some numbers myself on UNG's relation to Natural Gas. Bottom line is that UNG did decline worse than Natural Gas but probably not materially for trading purposes.
Date Wellhead Price mtdchg cumulative UNG mtdchg cumulative
Oct-08 6.36 ---------------------------------------28.90
Nov-08 5.97 -6.13% -6.13% 26.95 -6.75% -6.75%
Dec-08 5.87 -1.68% -7.70% 23.17 -14.03% -19.83%
Jan-09 5.15 -12.27% -19.03% 18.13 -21.75% -37.27%
Feb-09 4.19 -18.64% -34.12% 17.32 -4.47% -40.07%
Mar-09 3.72 -11.22% -41.51% 15.20 -12.24% -47.40%
My table here sucks but end result is that from Oct 08 to Mar 09 Natural Gas declined 41.51% and UNG declined 47.40%
Date Wellhead Price mtdchg cumulative UNG mtdchg cumulative
Oct-08 6.36 ---------------------------------------28.90
Nov-08 5.97 -6.13% -6.13% 26.95 -6.75% -6.75%
Dec-08 5.87 -1.68% -7.70% 23.17 -14.03% -19.83%
Jan-09 5.15 -12.27% -19.03% 18.13 -21.75% -37.27%
Feb-09 4.19 -18.64% -34.12% 17.32 -4.47% -40.07%
Mar-09 3.72 -11.22% -41.51% 15.20 -12.24% -47.40%
My table here sucks but end result is that from Oct 08 to Mar 09 Natural Gas declined 41.51% and UNG declined 47.40%
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iowa clubbers
Footballguy
Expecting it but don't see it (Scottrade acct). Maybe will see it on Thursday?
Reaper
Footballguy
Question on Dividends....Why not just get a list of Dividend dates for companies and keep moving your pile of money from stock to stock and collect the dividends?Do you have to own it a certain amount of time?
Only did 150 shares since most of my investment account is tied up in those losing funds that former broker acquired.
Revo
Footballguy
Yes, you have to hold it a certain amount of time, so there's time/price risk. And the stock price typically declines by the amount of the dividend, since it's coming out of their cash reserves.
optionmaven
Footballguy
Had my order for CHK filled while i was golfing. I purchased 4 October 21 calls with a 4.75 premium. 1900 buy in. Went positive for the day as the last sold was at 5.10. Also had an order filled for CAT. I purchased 3 August 38 calls with a 3.25 premium. 975 buy in. Down on the day, last sold at 2.80. I like CAT here at these prices as well as DE. Stimulus should at some point help these guys out some.
Another point i would like to make about options and siffoin already brought it up today. One of the most important aspects to look at when buying is the volumes. Ideally, you would like to be on the side of the big institutions. If you see large put volumes, be leary of your call. When you see the calls over puts ratio at decent levels, (i like a big number here 500 to 1 but will generally accept 3 or 4 to 1) its usually a semi safe play. Very, very, very important to check volume levels with options.
Another point i would like to make about options and siffoin already brought it up today. One of the most important aspects to look at when buying is the volumes. Ideally, you would like to be on the side of the big institutions. If you see large put volumes, be leary of your call. When you see the calls over puts ratio at decent levels, (i like a big number here 500 to 1 but will generally accept 3 or 4 to 1) its usually a semi safe play. Very, very, very important to check volume levels with options.
None_More_Black
Footballguy
A stock usually goes down after a dividend payout but people do try this strategy. You only have to be the holder of record on the ex-dividend date. You do not have to own the stock on the payout date (I don't own any PRGN but I just got the dividend) There are some option strategies for pretty much riskless dividend capture but the dividend has to be pretty big to overcome transaction costs.
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Penguin
Footballguy
Anyone know why ATPG is free falling after hours?
After Hours: 8.50 -0.75 (-8.11%) - Jun 10, 5:47PM EDT
ETA: Nevermind, just found this...
ATP Oil & Gas Corporation announced that it has commenced an underwritten public offering of 7.25 million shares of its common stock. The underwriters for the offering will also have the option to purchase up to 1.0875 million additional shares of common stock to cover any over-allotments. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to support capital expenditures related to its drilling and development activities, including development of wells at its Telemark Hub in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, to reduce indebtedness and for general corporate purposes. J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. will act as sole book-running manager for the common stock offering.
After Hours: 8.50 -0.75 (-8.11%) - Jun 10, 5:47PM EDT
ETA: Nevermind, just found this...
ATP Oil & Gas Corporation announced that it has commenced an underwritten public offering of 7.25 million shares of its common stock. The underwriters for the offering will also have the option to purchase up to 1.0875 million additional shares of common stock to cover any over-allotments. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to support capital expenditures related to its drilling and development activities, including development of wells at its Telemark Hub in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, to reduce indebtedness and for general corporate purposes. J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. will act as sole book-running manager for the common stock offering.
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
You usually only have to hold it until the close of a set date. The problem is that a lot of people tend to sell the day after so the stock will go down. So basically, if you can be the first guy out the door and get the price you paid, or better, this would work. It's easier said than done though.
#@%&$!?
Footballguy
Speculation that the delay in FDA approval may have noting to do with Ampligen. The new FDA chief apparently needs to divest her investment interests before announcing...
http://mymarketspy.blogspot.com/2009/06/wh...pproval-of.html
bigfishboy
Footballguy
I have been out for over a week and need an exit strategy for PRGN.
I have 575 shares @ 5.40. I am thinking I just need to eat the loss and get on with life. This thread has really blown up with different stock picks and I need the liquidity to act on some of them. It seems to me I will be better off in the long run by getting into something else than waiting for PRGN to come back.
Ideas? Thoughts on a good limit to set?
I have 575 shares @ 5.40. I am thinking I just need to eat the loss and get on with life. This thread has really blown up with different stock picks and I need the liquidity to act on some of them. It seems to me I will be better off in the long run by getting into something else than waiting for PRGN to come back.
Ideas? Thoughts on a good limit to set?
SIDA!
Footballguy
Not going to speak to PRGN specifically since I only know what I read on here. But I am in a similar situation and will share my thoughts.I havent traded for several years and just started trading again. My first trade was May 26th. Just started with a small account of $5,000. My largest position has been 100 shares of NOC...lol. Takes up about $4,850 of my account leaving me with another $5,000 grandish on margin.My main goal is to preserve my capital and relearn this stuff. I enjoy the game and the excitement of the game means more to me than the money. So, I know that if I don't watch my money and get reckless, my account will go bye bye. Pretty freaking frustrating when I see a lot of action out there and tons of setups that I want to trade.But I cant. With my limited account and the sizeable impact commissions have on one lot orders, I have to be very conservative with my spots. As a result, I have watched several stocks that I liked a lot move against me because I had very strict/tight entry points. Additionally, with NOC eating up half my trading stake, I am further limited.Now, NOC isn't sexy but I am making money on it. Could have made some more if I was more aggressive in my trading of it. But...I have been trying not to turn into a day trader. I want to hold a position for a day to a week. So...I have been sitting here watching my NOC position. And watching everyone else high fiving each other on their victories. And I try to stay disciplined and stick to my game plan. Nice and steady. Get back into game shape so to speak. Trading is a mind screw. You have to be disciplined, yet agile and quick to adjust. The psychology of trading is fascinating. Part of me screams...free up the capital and trade other stuff that is moving. Get some action going. I was short NOC before and bought it back more than a buck lower for a profit only to watch it drop further. I kicked myself because I told myself I wanted to have an extended holding period. But it was my first trade and I made a buck, so I took it. Then I reentered and am in the positive, but have watched the position go down over a buck and come back twice. Outside of that, I traded EMIS (500 shares) and made some change. And I have done a couple of others today that I opened. I went long GRS and UNG today based on their technicals. They were basically unch from where I bought them. I also traded ABG for a 30+ cent gain intraday.So, at the end of the day, I have made $400 on my $5,000 account going back to May 26th. Aint sexy...but I havent been stopped out of a trade yet and I am slowly developing my confidence level and feel.My recommendation is that you look at why you bought PRGN and if the reasoning is still sound, I would stay the course. I am not sure that liquidating for the sake of getting in on the action elsewhere is the proper thing to do here. If you are looking to be more active and to shorten your holding periods, then perhaps, you should liquidate and move into other stocks.I told myself that I wanted to take my time and get reacclimated to the market. Trade small, protect your capital. I also believe that NOC is up against resistance here at $50 and that that resistance level was my stop. So, as much as I want to be able to free up capital I am going to stick with my gameplan that was designed to keep me in the game.As I mature, I will up my game a bit and go from there.
bigfishboy
Footballguy
Does anyone have thoughtson REITS? I have been researching them and can't see much downside (I believe the real estate market can't go much lower). A lot of them have high dividends compared to current cost (25%). They also stand to increase stock price as most are a fraction of historical prices.
One that I have an eye on is RAS. It is a bit different because it invests in mortgages and loans, and therefore has high risk and volitility. But it is currently 1/25th of last years price and is returning 100% in dividends. It is a gamble to be alive in a year, but if it is, you would see a good profit.
Any REIT people?
One that I have an eye on is RAS. It is a bit different because it invests in mortgages and loans, and therefore has high risk and volitility. But it is currently 1/25th of last years price and is returning 100% in dividends. It is a gamble to be alive in a year, but if it is, you would see a good profit.
Any REIT people?
David Dodds
Administrator
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David Dodds
Administrator
Year to Date Profit = $130,909
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses = Profit = +202
FAZ - Profit = 220 -18
Holding:
4,000 CENX @ 6.65 (7.11 in After Hours)
2500 UNG @13.98 (14.09 in Pre-Market)
1,000 HEB @ 2.52 (2.62)
400 CHK @ 22.77 (24.00 in After Hours)
1,000 KERX @ 1.22 (1.21 in After Hours)
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses = Profit = +202
FAZ - Profit = 220 -18
Holding:
4,000 CENX @ 6.65 (7.11 in After Hours)
2500 UNG @13.98 (14.09 in Pre-Market)
1,000 HEB @ 2.52 (2.62)
400 CHK @ 22.77 (24.00 in After Hours)
1,000 KERX @ 1.22 (1.21 in After Hours)
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think this is finaly starting to sink in for me.I been basicly doing the same thing with paired ETFs. And this would reduce my cost basis perhaps? Need to compare the strike price + commishion on the trade or just the strike price?
