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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (2 Viewers)

itriple said:
Im gonna chase the earnings reports this week. If it is anything like last quarter I should make money 80% of the trades. I love it when you know estimates are low and easy to beat.In for 500 shares of JNJ.
got any play on JPM or C in the next few days?
Already up .70 * 500 = $350I plan to move on to INTC tommorow after JNJ announces (and hopefully runs to $65+). Im still formulating the rest of the week.
 
My dad always used to say "it's only worth what someone will pay for it".

I know an oz of platinum is ~$1,375, gold is ~$1,060 an oz, and Silver is ~$18 an oz on the spot market. Thats said, go to e-bay and try and buy at anywhere near these prices. The markup is out of hand for physical right now.

I have looked just about every night for a week and the best I can tell Platinum is $1,600, Gold is $1,200, and silver is $20 ($22 is small lots).

Junk silver coins, worth roughly 12x face value in silver are going for 13-15 times face.

Way way out of hand right now. And for those of you in the "don't buy at e-bay go to a coin shop" crowd. I went to a few today. The markup isn't what you see on e-bay but they are higher then I can remember. One of the guys was saying that they are raising both the buy and sell price because they want to encourge accumulation right now because most in the local industry seem to think all of the prices are headed much higher by the end of the year.

Wonder if any of you are seeing the same thing in your area.

 
Added 5000 shares of PRGN at $4.30. Looking for a 30 cent pop.

Them finishing diluting is huge. Creates a strong floor. Plus they now have $3 per share of cash on the books. That is nuts.

 
ACLS up big for the second day in a row, thanks to whoever was pimping that stock. How much farther do you think it can run up?

 
My dad always used to say "it's only worth what someone will pay for it".I know an oz of platinum is ~$1,375, gold is ~$1,060 an oz, and Silver is ~$18 an oz on the spot market. Thats said, go to e-bay and try and buy at anywhere near these prices. The markup is out of hand for physical right now.I have looked just about every night for a week and the best I can tell Platinum is $1,600, Gold is $1,200, and silver is $20 ($22 is small lots).Junk silver coins, worth roughly 12x face value in silver are going for 13-15 times face.Way way out of hand right now. And for those of you in the "don't buy at e-bay go to a coin shop" crowd. I went to a few today. The markup isn't what you see on e-bay but they are higher then I can remember. One of the guys was saying that they are raising both the buy and sell price because they want to encourge accumulation right now because most in the local industry seem to think all of the prices are headed much higher by the end of the year.Wonder if any of you are seeing the same thing in your area.
I guess part of it is a risk premium being built into the price because of the looming war between Israel and Iran. The process of building that risk premium may take several months and we're still in the early stages here.
 
We're starting to approach another critical moment in the markets. I'm fairly certain the result will be a new leg up in everything, with commodities leading the way. Might be a drop instead, but, I doubt that.
:shrug: I couldnt agree more. The market is gonna go up or down in the near future. Just a feeling I have.
The market in my model is like a cannonball getting shot out of a cannon. The market in a sense has a mass and velocity. That event last summer was like the market getting shot out of a cannon. It provided the momentum. The only question was in getting the direction correct. But once we get the direction, the mystery is solved. If I make an error, its in the direction. But once direction is established, momentum is set. So in the example of last summer, once we established up as the direction, I knew to be bullish until the momentum expired. That momentum is now expiring and we're also approaching time to load the cannon again. Note that sometimes the momentum expires and the market also doesn't load the cannon right away, but in this case it is. It looks to me like we're about to refresh the upward momentum here, and in particular gold and silver are going much higher.Hypothetically, if someone wanted to trade off my advice, they'd wait until the cannon has been fired.
 
ACLS up big for the second day in a row, thanks to whoever was pimping that stock. How much farther do you think it can run up?
I posted it at .49. I think I was planning on exiting .75. There hasn't been any news released and its shot up huge. I'd keep an eye on it. Maybe some big news will be coming out and it goes up even more. Did you get in around .50?
 
So, is it time to jump off of PRGN yet?
I got a little bit more a moment ago. I'm holding 5000 shares right now, which is a PRGN record for me.
i'm still holding 3000....i need (the cash) to sell in the next 30 days or so....damn trying to hit this one is hard. keep reading the motley fool and other folks upgrading the stock to 5 stars, but it still isn't breaking $5/share. Argh.anybody have any insight?
 
A little late...but for OPEX ####s and giggles...on the close yesterday I bought a small pack of UNG Oct 12 puts at $.35 and DIA Oct 100 calls for $.35.

I just sold the UNG puts at $.70.

Holding the DIA calls.

Also (and not feeling comfortable about it) taking a long position in DXD at around $33.70. This is a system based trade on a 60 minute chart. Stop would be a close on a 60 minute chart below $33.50. This is a short term 1-10 day trade.

Trading futs back and forth.

Also to note the traders tax thingy is gaining some momentum. If you trade stocks regularly...you might want to pay attention. If you invest in the market at all you should pay attention. Again I ask...has anyone ever lived in Malta?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125512957855977163.html

 
Siffoin (or anyone), a few minutes ago at 11:24 CST the Dow was at 9876, the RSI(10,2m) 24, and CCI(20,2m) -241. Within 8 minutes, the Dow then dropped to 9872 while the RSI stayed flat at 24 and CCI jumped up to -131. What do you make of that type of setup/movement?

 
ACLS up big for the second day in a row, thanks to whoever was pimping that stock. How much farther do you think it can run up?
I posted it at .49. I think I was planning on exiting .75. There hasn't been any news released and its shot up huge. I'd keep an eye on it. Maybe some big news will be coming out and it goes up even more. Did you get in around .50?
I wish I had gotten in then, but didn't get in until about 1.19. Are you looking at EMKR or DSTI at all by any chance?
 
Siffoin (or anyone), a few minutes ago at 11:24 CST the Dow was at 9876, the RSI(10,2m) 24, and CCI(20,2m) -241. Within 8 minutes, the Dow then dropped to 9872 while the RSI stayed flat at 24 and CCI jumped up to -131. What do you make of that type of setup/movement?
what timeframe chart?
 
TheWalkmen said:
siffoin said:
TheWalkmen said:
Siffoin (or anyone), a few minutes ago at 11:24 CST the Dow was at 9876, the RSI(10,2m) 24, and CCI(20,2m) -241. Within 8 minutes, the Dow then dropped to 9872 while the RSI stayed flat at 24 and CCI jumped up to -131. What do you make of that type of setup/movement?
what timeframe chart?
Daily
Daily are you sure?Where 1 bar = all the price action in 1 day.If so...a 4 pt move of the DOW on a daily chart represents noise. For that matter a 40pt move on a daily chart represents noise. The indicators on a daily chart over an 8 minute span are meaningless.Not sure what you are thinking or how one can day trade on a daily chart. Typically these guys trade on a 1,3, or 5 minute chart. Sometimes a volume or tick chart is used. Daily chart for day trading seems like it would pretty impossible to time entries or exits. But more power to you if you can do it.CCI is a fine indicator...you might want to look into Woodies if using it.
 
TheWalkmen said:
KGB said:
TheWalkmen said:
ACLS up big for the second day in a row, thanks to whoever was pimping that stock. How much farther do you think it can run up?
I posted it at .49. I think I was planning on exiting .75. There hasn't been any news released and its shot up huge. I'd keep an eye on it. Maybe some big news will be coming out and it goes up even more. Did you get in around .50?
I wish I had gotten in then, but didn't get in until about 1.19. Are you looking at EMKR or DSTI at all by any chance?
No. Don't know about them. I think optionmaven is still in ACLS and might have more info. If I had cash I'd be buyingRTK 1.65Gnvc .96EVRM .38 (ill be adding here soon)
 
KGB said:
TheWalkmen said:
ACLS up big for the second day in a row, thanks to whoever was pimping that stock. How much farther do you think it can run up?
I posted it at .49. I think I was planning on exiting .75. There hasn't been any news released and its shot up huge. I'd keep an eye on it. Maybe some big news will be coming out and it goes up even more.

Did you get in around .50?
ACLS received a multiple order from a major asian foundry on the 21st of september sparking some of this rally. http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/company-news-st...iple-tool-orderThen this went out on sept. 30th. http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/company-news-st...rmance-benefits

I bought in 1500 @ .49. I then bought 1000 at 1.00 with my friends i talked into it. Added 500 more @ 1.20 last week. In previous post i said 1.50 was attainable (didn't think it would happen this fast) but that 4 dollars could be too. Monitor your position but i'm holding over the short term here.

 
TheWalkmen said:
siffoin said:
TheWalkmen said:
Siffoin (or anyone), a few minutes ago at 11:24 CST the Dow was at 9876, the RSI(10,2m) 24, and CCI(20,2m) -241. Within 8 minutes, the Dow then dropped to 9872 while the RSI stayed flat at 24 and CCI jumped up to -131. What do you make of that type of setup/movement?
what timeframe chart?
Daily
Daily are you sure?Where 1 bar = all the price action in 1 day.If so...a 4 pt move of the DOW on a daily chart represents noise. For that matter a 40pt move on a daily chart represents noise. The indicators on a daily chart over an 8 minute span are meaningless.Not sure what you are thinking or how one can day trade on a daily chart. Typically these guys trade on a 1,3, or 5 minute chart. Sometimes a volume or tick chart is used. Daily chart for day trading seems like it would pretty impossible to time entries or exits. But more power to you if you can do it.CCI is a fine indicator...you might want to look into Woodies if using it.
I was looking at a Line chart rather than a candlestick or OHLC chart. The line chart has a 1d zoom.This is why I'm practicing this DDM & DXD stuff in a simulated accout, I'm still trying to figure out what I'm doing :thumbup:
 
TheWalkmen said:
siffoin said:
TheWalkmen said:
Siffoin (or anyone), a few minutes ago at 11:24 CST the Dow was at 9876, the RSI(10,2m) 24, and CCI(20,2m) -241. Within 8 minutes, the Dow then dropped to 9872 while the RSI stayed flat at 24 and CCI jumped up to -131. What do you make of that type of setup/movement?
what timeframe chart?
Daily
Daily are you sure?Where 1 bar = all the price action in 1 day.If so...a 4 pt move of the DOW on a daily chart represents noise. For that matter a 40pt move on a daily chart represents noise. The indicators on a daily chart over an 8 minute span are meaningless.Not sure what you are thinking or how one can day trade on a daily chart. Typically these guys trade on a 1,3, or 5 minute chart. Sometimes a volume or tick chart is used. Daily chart for day trading seems like it would pretty impossible to time entries or exits. But more power to you if you can do it.CCI is a fine indicator...you might want to look into Woodies if using it.
I was looking at a Line chart rather than a candlestick or OHLC chart. The line chart has a 1d zoom.This is why I'm practicing this DDM & DXD stuff in a simulated accout, I'm still trying to figure out what I'm doing :rolleyes:
Upon further review...it looks like those indicators are set to a 2 minute timeframe. So you are fine.
 
Upon further review...it looks like those indicators are set to a 2 minute timeframe. So you are fine.
Okay. So back to the original question, if the CCI is increasing quickly but price is decreasing, what does that usually indicate? It seems as if they usually move together, so I'm wondering why the were moving in opposing directions.
 
Upon further review...it looks like those indicators are set to a 2 minute timeframe. So you are fine.
Okay. So back to the original question, if the CCI is increasing quickly but price is decreasing, what does that usually indicate? It seems as if they usually move together, so I'm wondering why the were moving in opposing directions.
Well generally speaking they should move together. BUT CCI is an indicator used to indicate something slightly different and apart from RSI.CCI is considered a trend indicator. Meaning that the CCI helps to predict the future direction of the underlying.RSI is considered a momentum indicator. Meaning that RSI helps to determine the speed the price of the underlying is moving.My read on your question would be that the indicators are in conflict indicating a flatish market prone to whipsaws. Enter with caution.Note: I'm not an expert on CCI or RSI and do not use them as part of my trading strategy. So this is arm chair analysis.
 
Upon further review...it looks like those indicators are set to a 2 minute timeframe. So you are fine.
Okay. So back to the original question, if the CCI is increasing quickly but price is decreasing, what does that usually indicate? It seems as if they usually move together, so I'm wondering why the were moving in opposing directions.
Well generally speaking they should move together. BUT CCI is an indicator used to indicate something slightly different and apart from RSI.CCI is considered a trend indicator. Meaning that the CCI helps to predict the future direction of the underlying.

RSI is considered a momentum indicator. Meaning that RSI helps to determine the speed the price of the underlying is moving.

My read on your question would be that the indicators are in conflict indicating a flatish market prone to whipsaws. Enter with caution.

Note: I'm not an expert on CCI or RSI and do not use them as part of my trading strategy. So this is arm chair analysis.
You got the flatish part right, and I don't recall any big whipsaws. I'll be very cautious when indicators conflict and stay on the sidelines for now, thanks. The most difficult part of trading these ETF's so far for me is being patient and only trading when I see a strong pattern of resistance/support and making sure the indicators are at certain levels.
 
These shippers are bad news. They have good fundamentals on a per share basis, and then voila, they sneak more shares out there, making all the per share ratio data worthless. You think you're buying a stock with a P/E of 4.0, but in reality it just became a 7.0 P/E. These shippers don't give a rat's ### about their shareholders.Maybe down the road these stocks will once again be worthwhile, but it's tough to do your homework, thoroughly examine the fundamentals and then have someone throw you a sinkerball.I've been buying Terra Industries (TRA), Joy Global (JOYG), Atwood Oceanics (ATW), Netease.com (NTES) & American Dairy (ADY). I jump in and out. A couple of others I have small positions in are Innophos Holdings (IPHS), Alcon (ACL), Alcoa (AA) & Fuqi International (FUQI). All have great fundamentals, and quite a few are in great technical stages.
FUQI, JOYG and TRA are all in full breakout, as all three broke through key resistance today.
I've been watching FUQI since you guys mentioned it. Seems like it's at a good entry point right now, though I'm concerned with the stability of the market at this point and not really looking to add stocks.
 
siffoin said:
A little late...but for OPEX ####s and giggles...on the close yesterday I bought a small pack of UNG Oct 12 puts at $.35 and DIA Oct 100 calls for $.35.

I just sold the UNG puts at $.70.

Holding the DIA calls.

Also (and not feeling comfortable about it) taking a long position in DXD at around $33.70. This is a system based trade on a 60 minute chart. Stop would be a close on a 60 minute chart below $33.50. This is a short term 1-10 day trade.

Trading futs back and forth.

Also to note the traders tax thingy is gaining some momentum. If you trade stocks regularly...you might want to pay attention. If you invest in the market at all you should pay attention. Again I ask...has anyone ever lived in Malta?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125512957855977163.html
What do you think of this system based on 30 min & 5 min charts? http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks...Dave--81325.cfm

 
Article this morning regarding ACLS. Looks like there is still time to get in.

Axcelis Shrs Hit 52-Week High As Confidence In Survival Grows

Tuesday 10/13/2009 3:52 PM ET - Dow Jones News

Related Companies

Symbol Last %Chg

ACLS 1.69 3.82%

As of 9:51 AM ET 10/14/09

By Kerry Grace Benn

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares of Axcelis Technologies Inc. (ACLS) hit a 52-week high Tuesday - their second in six sessions - a move one analyst attributed to investors taking a new look at the stock now that it appears the company will survive the market downturn.

Earlier this year, the producer of semiconductor-manufacturing equipment reported doubts about its ability to continue as a going concern. Its board has also faced struggles, as three directors didn't receive majority votes last year after the board rejected a takeover offer. The company later reappointed those directors.

Semiconductor capital equipment stocks have had a good run recently and fundamentals are looking stronger heading into next year, Pacific Crest Securities analyst Weston Twigg said. Axcelis is one of the last companies getting a chance to run up as investors are looking at what companies have upside potential, he said.

Losses have been narrowing sequentially in recent quarters after a write-down in last year's fourth quarter. Twigg also said non-systems revenue, which includes service and upgrade revenue - everything except big equipment - looks like it will improve in the near term. The company may not see a huge increase in equipment orders right away, but it does look like things are improving, he said.

Axcelis couldn't be immediately reached for comment.

Shares were up 19 cents, or 13%, at $1.61 in recent trading on more than double average daily volume, after reaching as high as $1.69 earlier Tuesday and posting an 11% gain Monday.

Twigg said the stock is undervalued, since there were concerns about whether the company would survive. It was one of the hardest hit in the downturn, he said, partly because it had market-share losses amid a cyclical semiconductor decline before the financial crisis even hit.

"Now it looks like the company will probably make it, so there's a correction in valuation," he said.

It doesn't take a lot to move the stock, because it doesn't trade at a high volume, Twigg said, and investors want to get in before earnings start for the sector Wednesday.

-By Kerry Grace Benn, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2353; kerry.benn@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/nae/al?rnd=hmN0U...XZZpTnopQ%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

 
itriple said:
Added 5000 shares of PRGN at $4.30. Looking for a 30 cent pop.Them finishing diluting is huge. Creates a strong floor. Plus they now have $3 per share of cash on the books. That is nuts.
And out for 25 cent gain. $1250 in 20 hours isnt a bad paying job.
 
Nice article on ACLS Unger.......thanks. I'd like to get up to 5-10k of this stock before it hits 2.

What was the range people were buying FEED at? It seems to be close to the low if i recall correctly. Wasn't it a buy at 5 or thereabouts and a sell at 7? Thats what i'm remembering for some reason.

 
siffoin said:
A little late...but for OPEX ####s and giggles...on the close yesterday I bought a small pack of UNG Oct 12 puts at $.35 and DIA Oct 100 calls for $.35.

I just sold the UNG puts at $.70.

Holding the DIA calls.

Also (and not feeling comfortable about it) taking a long position in DXD at around $33.70. This is a system based trade on a 60 minute chart. Stop would be a close on a 60 minute chart below $33.50. This is a short term 1-10 day trade.

Trading futs back and forth.

Also to note the traders tax thingy is gaining some momentum. If you trade stocks regularly...you might want to pay attention. If you invest in the market at all you should pay attention. Again I ask...has anyone ever lived in Malta?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125512957855977163.html
What do you think of this system based on 30 min & 5 min charts? http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks...Dave--81325.cfm
Ok the jist of this is fine.Basically saying...you look at a longer term trend and trade that side on a shorter term chart.

FINE. But I don't like to look at 2 charts. So you could modify it slightly. Here's an example:

Take a 5 minute chart...add 2 EMA (exponential moving averages).

The first is a 50EMA (make the line green). This is the fast MA.

The second is a 200EMA (make the line red). This is the slow MA.

the 50/200 on a 5 minute chart will correlate (close enough) to the trend they are discussing on a 30 minute chart...though you may want to experiment with the exact MA numbers.

When the 50EMA is above the 200EMA you have a Bull market. When the 50EMA is belwo the 200EMA you have a Bear market (defined within the parameters of a 30 minute chart timeframe).

When in a Bull trend only trade the long side. And vice-verse in a bear trend.

You'll need another indicator to determine entries. CCI/RSI is fine. Maybe look at PSAR.

What you DON"T want is a bunch of indicators. You want 2-4 max. More indicators will only cause you hesitation and second guessing as by the time they align the meat of the move will be over.

From what i can tell you are somewhat of a counter-trend trader...buying support and selling resistance. This trading style doesn't necessarily gel well with the indicators you appear to be using, which are trend indicators. But counter-trend CAN be successful. For this style become familiar with pivots, Fibonacci relationships, Square of 9 Gann cycles. I would also look into Hurst Cycle timing through his book "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing." You'll need to read the book a number of times to even get a vague understanding of the concept. But I've known one Hurst Cycle Timer who could accurately forecast SP500 within a few pts 6 months out...and did so consistently for years (until he passed away). Just like magic.

In the end the main key is discipline and money management. Trading is the easiest and hardest job in the world. But the floor is littered with hopes and dreams. No one is successful without wearing numerous battle scars. Never forget you are a guppy in a pool of sharks who without a conscious will feast on your blood.

Oh yea...sold the DXD on the open as it gaped below $33.50. Closed the position around $33.15. That was an early morning punch to the gut...but was a system trade and I was fully aware of the risk...still hurts. Sold the DIA Oct 100 Call at around $.50 for a decent % gain.

 
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Nice article on ACLS Unger.......thanks. I'd like to get up to 5-10k of this stock before it hits 2. What was the range people were buying FEED at? It seems to be close to the low if i recall correctly. Wasn't it a buy at 5 or thereabouts and a sell at 7? Thats what i'm remembering for some reason.
What the hell.... in for 1000 shares for ACLS at $1.54
 
I fee like we're all on the Mean Streak at Cedar Point. We're at the top of that first hill. The past week has been clickclicklicklclickclickclick...click...click...click...click.......click...............click....................clickI can't wait to see the look on everyone's faces in the photo hut.
This was the talk when the Dow was in the mid 8,000s. :confused:
 
siffoin said:
A little late...but for OPEX ####s and giggles...on the close yesterday I bought a small pack of UNG Oct 12 puts at $.35 and DIA Oct 100 calls for $.35.

I just sold the UNG puts at $.70.

Holding the DIA calls.

Also (and not feeling comfortable about it) taking a long position in DXD at around $33.70. This is a system based trade on a 60 minute chart. Stop would be a close on a 60 minute chart below $33.50. This is a short term 1-10 day trade.

Trading futs back and forth.

Also to note the traders tax thingy is gaining some momentum. If you trade stocks regularly...you might want to pay attention. If you invest in the market at all you should pay attention. Again I ask...has anyone ever lived in Malta?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125512957855977163.html
What do you think of this system based on 30 min & 5 min charts? http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks...Dave--81325.cfm
Ok the jist of this is fine.Basically saying...you look at a longer term trend and trade that side on a shorter term chart.

FINE. But I don't like to look at 2 charts. So you could modify it slightly. Here's an example:

Take a 5 minute chart...add 2 EMA (exponential moving averages).

The first is a 50EMA (make the line green). This is the fast MA.

The second is a 200EMA (make the line red). This is the slow MA.

the 50/200 on a 5 minute chart will correlate (close enough) to the trend they are discussing on a 30 minute chart...though you may want to experiment with the exact MA numbers.

When the 50EMA is above the 200EMA you have a Bull market. When the 50EMA is belwo the 200EMA you have a Bear market (defined within the parameters of a 30 minute chart timeframe).

When in a Bull trend only trade the long side. And vice-verse in a bear trend.

You'll need another indicator to determine entries. CCI/RSI is fine. Maybe look at PSAR.

What you DON"T want is a bunch of indicators. You want 2-4 max. More indicators will only cause you hesitation and second guessing as by the time they align the meat of the move will be over.

From what i can tell you are somewhat of a counter-trend trader...buying support and selling resistance. This trading style doesn't necessarily gel well with the indicators you appear to be using, which are trend indicators. But counter-trend CAN be successful. For this style become familiar with pivots, Fibonacci relationships, Square of 9 Gann cycles. I would also look into Hurst Cycle timing through his book "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing." You'll need to read the book a number of times to even get a vague understanding of the concept. But I've known one Hurst Cycle Timer who could accurately forecast SP500 within a few pts 6 months out...and did so consistently for years (until he passed away). Just like magic.

In the end the main key is discipline and money management. Trading is the easiest and hardest job in the world. But the floor is littered with hopes and dreams. No one is successful without wearing numerous battle scars. Never forget you are a guppy in a pool of sharks who without a conscious will feast on your blood.

Oh yea...sold the DXD on the open as it gaped below $33.50. Closed the position around $33.15. That was an early morning punch to the gut...but was a system trade and I was fully aware of the risk...still hurts. Sold the DIA Oct 100 Call at around $.50 for a decent % gain.
Thanks, this is great info. On the 5 minute chart you mentioned, what would your entry and exit points be? When CCI is -100 or -200 for entry and maybe a 5% trailing stop? If CCI is the setup, would you want some type of trigger to confirm the setup? And if I bet 10% of of my total portfolio every trade, the most I could lose is .50% (with the trailing stop in place) of my total portfolio, which I think would be considered good money management, correct?Thanks again, and when I get a good strategy I'm going to test the thing real time before putting any real $$ on the line.

 
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Reply to Walkman:

The problem with setting a % stop loss is that it doesn't take into account expanding volatility. And what you'll find is that you have a GREAT trade that gets taken out right at your 5% stop...turns...and runs to great success without you. Having that happen over and over is a mental drain.

In addition...you should probably risk no more than 5% of your portfolio on any trade. Many would say no more than 2.5%.

Good money management is this:

1) Plan your trade.

2) Trade your plan

3) pretty much every trade will be underwater initially (the risk of "buy low" is that it might just be going much lower and the risk of "sell high" is that it might be going much higher)...so learn how to recognize when you're caught on the wrong side of the trend and exit. Sometimes that might be with a 1% loss others it might be 8-10%...be flexible...but this is a part of #1 - your PLAN. If you don't know how to recognize when you're on the wrong side of the trade you're not a trader you're a gambler -which is fine just recognize what you are actually doing.

4) Let winners run.

I personally don't trade CCI. If you do you should check out Woodies CCI (google it). They have lessons on how to trade it. I don't get it. But I'm a simpleton.

I think I could have just as much success trading the MA Golden Cross if not more than CCI.

It is important to remember that there is no holy grail trading system. All suffer. Some have extraordinary success in certain markets...then fail miserably in others. I'm a trend trader. I do great with a market that is trending with volatility and momentum. In a flatish market I do terrible. Thus my key to success is knowing how/when to recognize if the short term market is flat or trending with momentum AND trade accordingly. It ain't easy.

The shorter time frame you trade the more difficult it is to be successful. Test your system on a 60 minute chart, then 30 minute, then 15 and then 5. If you can't make it work on a 60 minute chart...it's doubtful to be successful on a 5 minute chart.

Good luck with it.

 
I fee like we're all on the Mean Streak at Cedar Point. We're at the top of that first hill. The past week has been clickclicklicklclickclickclick...click...click...click...click.......click......

.........click....................click

I can't wait to see the look on everyone's faces in the photo hut.
This was the talk when the Dow was in the mid 8,000s. :thumbdown:
if you want to quote me, its probably better to quote my final analysis when we had resolution.
Spot gold did not move at all this week. Gold stocks essentially hit a double peak this week but closed lower. Spot silver rose slightly. Crude oil rose slightly but lagged behind. Meanwhile, you got real breakouts in stocks.

The story of this week is a potential top in commodities and decoupling from stocks which are on the rise. It appears I got the top, but missed what could be a new trend emerging.

The safest play now is buy the dips in a new bull market in stocks.
And that was the last word I had on any of that.Commodities also have decoupled some. Oil in particular has been a laggard.

 
ACLS news Axcelis Receives Nasdaq Compliance Notification

Press Release

Source: Axcelis Technologies, Inc.

On 5:15 pm EDT, Wednesday October 14, 2009

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Axcelis-Rece...ml?x=0&.v=1

BEVERLY, Mass., Oct. 14, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq:ACLS - News), a leading supplier of innovative, high-productivity solutions for the semiconductor industry, announced today that it received a notification of compliance with Listing Rule 5450(a)(1) from Nasdaq Listing Qualifications. This notification reflects the fact that the closing price of the Company's common stock was above $1.00 for more than 10 consecutive days since Nasdaq sent a notice of non-compliance with the Listing Rule in September. Nasdaq has informed Axcelis that all listing compliance issues are closed.

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq:ACLS - News) headquartered in Beverly, Massachusetts, provides innovative, high-productivity solutions for the semiconductor industry. Axcelis is dedicated to developing enabling process applications through the design, manufacture and complete life cycle support of ion implantation and cleaning systems. The company's Internet address is: www.axcelis.com.

Contact:

Axcelis Technologies, Inc.Editorial/MediaMaureen Hart 978.787.4266Financial CommunityStephen Bassett 978.787.4000Copyright © 2009 GlobeNewswire. All rights reserved. Redistribution of this content is expressly prohibited without prior written consent. GlobeNewswire makes no claims concerning the accuracy or validity of the information, and shall not be held liable for any errors, delays, omissions or use thereof.

.Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! All rights reserved. Privacy Policy - Terms of Service - Copyright Policy - Send Feedback Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quote data delayed 15 minutes for Nasdaq, NYSE and Amex. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Yahoo! is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.

 
Axcelis Scores Another High Energy Win as Major Foundry Selects Optima XE for Advanced IC Manufacturing

Axcelis Strengthens High Energy Leadership Position

Press Release

Source: Axcelis Technologies, Inc.

On 8:10 am EDT, Thursday October 15, 2009

BEVERLY, Mass., Oct. 15, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq:ACLS - News), a leading supplier of innovative, high-productivity solutions for the semiconductor industry, announced today that a major foundry has selected the "single wafer" Optima XE for its most advanced production facility. The win follows an evaluation where the single wafer Optima XE demonstrated significant competitive advantages in productivity, cost of ownership and manufacturing flexibility. The Optima XE will be used for high volume manufacturing of a wide variety of logic and memory products, as well as for the development of next generation devices.

Mary Puma, chairman and CEO commented, "As foundries move to the sub 32nm era, they require systems that have a wide process envelope and exceptional performance while also providing the economic benefits that will propel them into a leading position. The Optima XE surpasses the competition in these areas, and we are excited about the potential as this new high energy customer adopts Axcelis' single wafer manufacturing technology."

The Optima XE combines Axcelis' production-proven RF Linac high energy, spot beam technology with a high-speed, state-of-the-art single wafer endstation, enabling unmatched productivity. Its inherent flexibility and broad energy range of 10keV to 4.5MeV allow a single tool to support chipmakers' dynamic high energy requirements for DRAM, NAND and NOR FLASH, embedded memory, image sensor and logic device manufacturing. Axcelis is the industry's foremost supplier of high energy ion implant systems, with the world's largest installed base and leading market share.

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq:ACLS - News) headquartered in Beverly, Massachusetts, provides innovative, high-productivity solutions for the semiconductor industry. Axcelis is dedicated to developing enabling process applications through the design, manufacture and complete life cycle support of ion implantation and cleaning systems. The company's Internet address is: www.axcelis.com.

 
Good money management is this:

1) Plan your trade.

2) Trade your plan

3) pretty much every trade will be underwater initially (the risk of "buy low" is that it might just be going much lower and the risk of "sell high" is that it might be going much higher)...so learn how to recognize when you're caught on the wrong side of the trend and exit. Sometimes that might be with a 1% loss others it might be 8-10%...be flexible...but this is a part of #1 - your PLAN. If you don't know how to recognize when you're on the wrong side of the trade you're not a trader you're a gambler -which is fine just recognize what you are actually doing.

4) Let winners run.
Great post siff. Could you go into more detail for#4?
 
500 ACLS @ 1.50. I'm surprised with the news out that were dropping. Profit taking by bigger players i'd imagine is what is going on. Put in another buy order at 1.40 for 500 if it hits.

 
Good money management is this:

1) Plan your trade.

2) Trade your plan

3) pretty much every trade will be underwater initially (the risk of "buy low" is that it might just be going much lower and the risk of "sell high" is that it might be going much higher)...so learn how to recognize when you're caught on the wrong side of the trend and exit. Sometimes that might be with a 1% loss others it might be 8-10%...be flexible...but this is a part of #1 - your PLAN. If you don't know how to recognize when you're on the wrong side of the trade you're not a trader you're a gambler -which is fine just recognize what you are actually doing.

4) Let winners run.
Great post siff. Could you go into more detail for#4?
Well it's just that...let your winners run. Meaning...if your are in a winning trade and the indicators you used to "indicate" the initial signal are still positive (for buys)...let'er run.One thing to consider is to trade in lots of 3's. That's what I do.

For example: These days I'm trading DOW Futures regularly. So I'll open a position with 3 contracts. The most important aspect of the PLAN is: at what point will I know this trade is a loser. For me it is a 10pt loss from my entry (Now a 10pt move on the DOW can happen in seconds so it is a bar close 10pts from the entry...that means a loss can actually be anywhere from 5-15pts all said and done). Now for the fun part...profits. Since I'll risk 10pts...my goal is to make at least 20pts (you always want at least 2x reward for every $ risked).

Once I'm in the trade...I set a close order for 1 contract with a 20pt gain. The second at a 30pt gain...and the 3rd I leave open. Assuming I secure profits on the 1st contract, I then know I hold a winning trade. When the second contract fills...I basically hold a lottery ticket because if DOW has moved 30pts in one direction and momentum it is likely to continue, and often that 3rd contract will result in a 75-100+pt winner. I don't close that 3rd contract UNTIL the indicators are "indicating" a trend reversal is at hand.

It's that 3rd contract that runs that makes trading fun.

 
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A little late...but for OPEX ####s and giggles...on the close yesterday I bought a small pack of UNG Oct 12 puts at $.35 and DIA Oct 100 calls for $.35.

I just sold the UNG puts at $.70.

Holding the DIA calls.

Also (and not feeling comfortable about it) taking a long position in DXD at around $33.70. This is a system based trade on a 60 minute chart. Stop would be a close on a 60 minute chart below $33.50. This is a short term 1-10 day trade.

Trading futs back and forth.

Also to note the traders tax thingy is gaining some momentum. If you trade stocks regularly...you might want to pay attention. If you invest in the market at all you should pay attention. Again I ask...has anyone ever lived in Malta?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125512957855977163.html
What do you think of this system based on 30 min & 5 min charts? http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks...Dave--81325.cfm
Ok the jist of this is fine.Basically saying...you look at a longer term trend and trade that side on a shorter term chart.

FINE. But I don't like to look at 2 charts. So you could modify it slightly. Here's an example:

Take a 5 minute chart...add 2 EMA (exponential moving averages).

The first is a 50EMA (make the line green). This is the fast MA.

The second is a 200EMA (make the line red). This is the slow MA.

the 50/200 on a 5 minute chart will correlate (close enough) to the trend they are discussing on a 30 minute chart...though you may want to experiment with the exact MA numbers.

When the 50EMA is above the 200EMA you have a Bull market. When the 50EMA is belwo the 200EMA you have a Bear market (defined within the parameters of a 30 minute chart timeframe).

When in a Bull trend only trade the long side. And vice-verse in a bear trend.

You'll need another indicator to determine entries. CCI/RSI is fine. Maybe look at PSAR.

What you DON"T want is a bunch of indicators. You want 2-4 max. More indicators will only cause you hesitation and second guessing as by the time they align the meat of the move will be over.

From what i can tell you are somewhat of a counter-trend trader...buying support and selling resistance. This trading style doesn't necessarily gel well with the indicators you appear to be using, which are trend indicators. But counter-trend CAN be successful. For this style become familiar with pivots, Fibonacci relationships, Square of 9 Gann cycles. I would also look into Hurst Cycle timing through his book "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing." You'll need to read the book a number of times to even get a vague understanding of the concept. But I've known one Hurst Cycle Timer who could accurately forecast SP500 within a few pts 6 months out...and did so consistently for years (until he passed away). Just like magic.

In the end the main key is discipline and money management. Trading is the easiest and hardest job in the world. But the floor is littered with hopes and dreams. No one is successful without wearing numerous battle scars. Never forget you are a guppy in a pool of sharks who without a conscious will feast on your blood.

Oh yea...sold the DXD on the open as it gaped below $33.50. Closed the position around $33.15. That was an early morning punch to the gut...but was a system trade and I was fully aware of the risk...still hurts. Sold the DIA Oct 100 Call at around $.50 for a decent % gain.
One thing I'm not liking with this strategy (the one I linked) is that the 30 min CCI for any of the Dow or S&P ETF's has barely gotten as low as -100 over the last week or so. Entry points seem to be very limited.
 
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Re: Gold

I'm looking to take a position in GOLD (ticker GOLD) on some kind of pullback. Not 100% sure where that is going to be. I may wind up scaling into the position...from low 70's.

For those of you who like to play with penny stocks. Look into Sante Fe Mining (ticker SFEG). Currently trading around $1.25

For disclosure...I've owned this stock for a number of years and my total cost basis is less than $0.00. However this is a company with real assets, and is in the very early stages of actual mining production.

This week they received important permitting for the Ortiz mine which has an estimated 2 million oz of gold (as well as silver). Commercial production should begin in 2010.

Do your DD on this one...as for me I'm riding a lottery ticket. My hopes/guess- I could see this one going to $2.50 (in actual production) up to $8 on crazy hype. Here is a link to a recent press release....

http://santafegoldcorp.com/_pdfs/05_news/p...09/20091005.pdf
Add any GOLD today?
I'm unable to converse with any fan of the 49'ers till next week. The ghost of Jerry Rice still haunts my nightmarish dreams.JK.

I'm not getting a great ST read on the overall market. Seems like some kind of crossroads. And with OPEX upcoming I'm hesitant to enter on any side.

Re: GOLD- $69.25 and I'm very interested. But at $70 a March Synthetic play is probably going to be my best bet.
Picked up some small change it looks like writing a GOLD Oct 70 put. I'm riding out a GLD Oct 104 put I wrote as well. I got $3.20 when I wrote it so figure I can ride it out a bit and see if this is going to expire worthless. If GLD starts to retreat I'm going to lock in at least a $200 gain.
 
In for another 5000 shares of PRGN at $4.40

I feel wired into this thing. I will hopefully sell this afternoon at $4.55 for $750.

 
A little late...but for OPEX ####s and giggles...on the close yesterday I bought a small pack of UNG Oct 12 puts at $.35 and DIA Oct 100 calls for $.35.

I just sold the UNG puts at $.70.

Holding the DIA calls.

Also (and not feeling comfortable about it) taking a long position in DXD at around $33.70. This is a system based trade on a 60 minute chart. Stop would be a close on a 60 minute chart below $33.50. This is a short term 1-10 day trade.

Trading futs back and forth.

Also to note the traders tax thingy is gaining some momentum. If you trade stocks regularly...you might want to pay attention. If you invest in the market at all you should pay attention. Again I ask...has anyone ever lived in Malta?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125512957855977163.html
What do you think of this system based on 30 min & 5 min charts? http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks...Dave--81325.cfm
Ok the jist of this is fine.Basically saying...you look at a longer term trend and trade that side on a shorter term chart.

FINE. But I don't like to look at 2 charts. So you could modify it slightly. Here's an example:

Take a 5 minute chart...add 2 EMA (exponential moving averages).

The first is a 50EMA (make the line green). This is the fast MA.

The second is a 200EMA (make the line red). This is the slow MA.

the 50/200 on a 5 minute chart will correlate (close enough) to the trend they are discussing on a 30 minute chart...though you may want to experiment with the exact MA numbers.

When the 50EMA is above the 200EMA you have a Bull market. When the 50EMA is belwo the 200EMA you have a Bear market (defined within the parameters of a 30 minute chart timeframe).

When in a Bull trend only trade the long side. And vice-verse in a bear trend.

You'll need another indicator to determine entries. CCI/RSI is fine. Maybe look at PSAR.

What you DON"T want is a bunch of indicators. You want 2-4 max. More indicators will only cause you hesitation and second guessing as by the time they align the meat of the move will be over.

From what i can tell you are somewhat of a counter-trend trader...buying support and selling resistance. This trading style doesn't necessarily gel well with the indicators you appear to be using, which are trend indicators. But counter-trend CAN be successful. For this style become familiar with pivots, Fibonacci relationships, Square of 9 Gann cycles. I would also look into Hurst Cycle timing through his book "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing." You'll need to read the book a number of times to even get a vague understanding of the concept. But I've known one Hurst Cycle Timer who could accurately forecast SP500 within a few pts 6 months out...and did so consistently for years (until he passed away). Just like magic.

In the end the main key is discipline and money management. Trading is the easiest and hardest job in the world. But the floor is littered with hopes and dreams. No one is successful without wearing numerous battle scars. Never forget you are a guppy in a pool of sharks who without a conscious will feast on your blood.

Oh yea...sold the DXD on the open as it gaped below $33.50. Closed the position around $33.15. That was an early morning punch to the gut...but was a system trade and I was fully aware of the risk...still hurts. Sold the DIA Oct 100 Call at around $.50 for a decent % gain.
One thing I'm not liking with this strategy (the one I linked) is that the 30 min CCI for any of the Dow or S&P ETF's has barely gotten as low as -100 over the last week or so. Entry points seem to be very limited.
At extremes technical indicators don't work very well. In the end you should go and back test your strategy 1-2 years.Flat markets, markets at extremes are tough trading. At least at extremes you can ride the obvious trend. For years I've tried to develop an indicator called the "Close the Office and Go Play Golf" indicator...but part of successful trading is an art....knowing when the indicators are purring vs. when they are sputtering.

I wind up taking smaller positions against the trend for system trades...pretty much knowing there's a good chance I'll lose. But in order to get paid you have to play...and no one can KNOW the future.

For instance I bought some Silver (SLV) puts this morning...that's taking a trade against what has been a pretty strong up trend...and like the DXD of a few days ago I'm not happy about it...but the one thing you'll find is that big moves are the ones that no one is expecting. Only in hindsight are the BEST trades obvious...living on the the right edge of a chart ain't easy.

 
Re: Gold

I'm looking to take a position in GOLD (ticker GOLD) on some kind of pullback. Not 100% sure where that is going to be. I may wind up scaling into the position...from low 70's.

For those of you who like to play with penny stocks. Look into Sante Fe Mining (ticker SFEG). Currently trading around $1.25

For disclosure...I've owned this stock for a number of years and my total cost basis is less than $0.00. However this is a company with real assets, and is in the very early stages of actual mining production.

This week they received important permitting for the Ortiz mine which has an estimated 2 million oz of gold (as well as silver). Commercial production should begin in 2010.

Do your DD on this one...as for me I'm riding a lottery ticket. My hopes/guess- I could see this one going to $2.50 (in actual production) up to $8 on crazy hype. Here is a link to a recent press release....

http://santafegoldcorp.com/_pdfs/05_news/p...09/20091005.pdf
Add any GOLD today?
I'm unable to converse with any fan of the 49'ers till next week. The ghost of Jerry Rice still haunts my nightmarish dreams.JK.

I'm not getting a great ST read on the overall market. Seems like some kind of crossroads. And with OPEX upcoming I'm hesitant to enter on any side.

Re: GOLD- $69.25 and I'm very interested. But at $70 a March Synthetic play is probably going to be my best bet.
Picked up some small change it looks like writing a GOLD Oct 70 put. I'm riding out a GLD Oct 104 put I wrote as well. I got $3.20 when I wrote it so figure I can ride it out a bit and see if this is going to expire worthless. If GLD starts to retreat I'm going to lock in at least a $200 gain.
Did you get anything for the GLD put? Remember on Put writing you want to capture AT LEAST 5% of the underlying value.On a 60 minute chart I'm showing GLD and SLV topping and in the early stage of a selling off...though both are rising back towards the recent highs and it is looking probable that this sell signal will be invalidated.

 
Re: Gold

I'm looking to take a position in GOLD (ticker GOLD) on some kind of pullback. Not 100% sure where that is going to be. I may wind up scaling into the position...from low 70's.

For those of you who like to play with penny stocks. Look into Sante Fe Mining (ticker SFEG). Currently trading around $1.25

For disclosure...I've owned this stock for a number of years and my total cost basis is less than $0.00. However this is a company with real assets, and is in the very early stages of actual mining production.

This week they received important permitting for the Ortiz mine which has an estimated 2 million oz of gold (as well as silver). Commercial production should begin in 2010.

Do your DD on this one...as for me I'm riding a lottery ticket. My hopes/guess- I could see this one going to $2.50 (in actual production) up to $8 on crazy hype. Here is a link to a recent press release....

http://santafegoldcorp.com/_pdfs/05_news/p...09/20091005.pdf
Add any GOLD today?
I'm unable to converse with any fan of the 49'ers till next week. The ghost of Jerry Rice still haunts my nightmarish dreams.JK.

I'm not getting a great ST read on the overall market. Seems like some kind of crossroads. And with OPEX upcoming I'm hesitant to enter on any side.

Re: GOLD- $69.25 and I'm very interested. But at $70 a March Synthetic play is probably going to be my best bet.
Picked up some small change it looks like writing a GOLD Oct 70 put. I'm riding out a GLD Oct 104 put I wrote as well. I got $3.20 when I wrote it so figure I can ride it out a bit and see if this is going to expire worthless. If GLD starts to retreat I'm going to lock in at least a $200 gain.
Did you get anything for the GLD put? Remember on Put writing you want to capture AT LEAST 5% of the underlying value.On a 60 minute chart I'm showing GLD and SLV topping and in the early stage of a selling off...though both are rising back towards the recent highs and it is looking probable that this sell signal will be invalidated.
I got $3.20 so only about 3%, wrote it about 10 days ago.
 
My bad I meant the GOLD Put.

And don't get me wrong...you know I believe Put writing is the only way to go...just want to make sure you maximize profits. Good luck.

 
My bad I meant the GOLD Put.And don't get me wrong...you know I believe Put writing is the only way to go...just want to make sure you maximize profits. Good luck.
Yeah on this one I only picked up a 1% gain. I only had it a few days too. I should have done more with GLD when I made that trade. About to close that position as it's heading down this afternoon. Rather than take possession of the shares tomorrow I think I'm just going to take my $200 gain.
 

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