You can go to ivolatility.com and it will show you the historical volatility for any stock.I don't have proof of this, but I believe smaller priced stocks generally bounce around more on a percentage basis. And that is all this strategy is hoping for. Some percentage movement. I agree you could also implement this without price constraints, without market cap constraints that would target different companies.I don't see why you are limiting yourself to stocks in any price range. A 10% increase in value for 40 shares of stock A, at $50/share will net you the same profit as 1000 shares of stock B increasing 10%. It just seems like you are leaving out potential value for the wrong reasons. Also, what makes this strategy any different than the dogs of the Dow strategy?
You obviously are not doing this right if you are showing that it's -1K. Fund is down $100 right now. I spent 58,550 on the stocks as posted a few posts up (I did not buy all of the stocks as listed in post 1 due to low volume on many of the stocks). I have securities with current value of $57415 and cash of $1035 (1/2 XING sold at +10%). All told this portfolio is -$100 so far todayI created a port. on google finance to follow along, -1k right now.![]()
I am trading on an account where I get 100 free trades so that makes implementing this a ton easier on the pocketbook. There are a bunch of sites out there that will give you up to 30 free trades a month so my plan is to diversify going forward (once I use up my free trades)Cool strategy. And some of the excellent posts in this thread appear to tighten up the strategy even more.I agree that the limit of the homerun upside and doubling down on the downside without at least a cursory look (maybe you already did that) at the companies basic info makes it a tough deal. Are the fees on small orders like this (500 @ 2.02 for a $95 gain) hurting your profits?I respect you for going for it with real cash. I hope it works out well for you.
I did it right, just looked in the wrong column:IMGYou obviously are not doing this right if you are showing that it's -1K. Fund is down $100 right now. I spent 58,550 on the stocks as posted a few posts up (I did not buy all of the stocks as listed in post 1 due to low volume on many of the stocks). I have securities with current value of $57415 and cash of $1035 (1/2 XING sold at +10%). All told this portfolio is -$100 so far todayI created a port. on google finance to follow along, -1k right now.![]()
I like the profit latch at 10% as well. I don't like the 20% latch. For that latch I would institute a double latch. Once it hits 20% I'd #### the trigger and then put in a trailing stop (5% of so) as the second latch to let the good ones run at least some. Not having a final trailing stop in a system like this is just giving money away.I think there are a couple of problems with this strategy:1) Nothing wrong with scalping profits at +10% and +20%. But to close the entire position at +20% doesn't allow you the chance to maximize profits when one (or more) of your selected stocks hits a "home run" and runs for gains of +100%+.
I only have 1,000 shares of Warren tooI did it right, just looked in the wrong column:IMGYou obviously are not doing this right if you are showing that it's -1K. Fund is down $100 right now. I spent 58,550 on the stocks as posted a few posts up (I did not buy all of the stocks as listed in post 1 due to low volume on many of the stocks). I have securities with current value of $57415 and cash of $1035 (1/2 XING sold at +10%). All told this portfolio is -$100 so far todayI created a port. on google finance to follow along, -1k right now.![]()
I just used historical for this.Did you use historical PE or projected PE?
gotcha, I must have entered that twice, showing as +190 now, altho I didn't record your sale of XINGI only have 1,000 shares of Warren tooI did it right, just looked in the wrong column:IMGYou obviously are not doing this right if you are showing that it's -1K. Fund is down $100 right now. I spent 58,550 on the stocks as posted a few posts up (I did not buy all of the stocks as listed in post 1 due to low volume on many of the stocks). I have securities with current value of $57415 and cash of $1035 (1/2 XING sold at +10%). All told this portfolio is -$100 so far todayI created a port. on google finance to follow along, -1k right now.![]()
Is that.......Big Foot?Alias said:I did it right, just looked in the wrong column:IMGDavid Dodds said:You obviously are not doing this right if you are showing that it's -1K. Fund is down $100 right now. I spent 58,550 on the stocks as posted a few posts up (I did not buy all of the stocks as listed in post 1 due to low volume on many of the stocks). I have securities with current value of $57415 and cash of $1035 (1/2 XING sold at +10%). All told this portfolio is -$100 so far todayAlias said:I created a port. on google finance to follow along, -1k right now.![]()
Dude, you're like the Assani Fisher of Stocks. Good Luck!Market headed down a good deal at the end of the session and drug the majority of these stocks down with it.Day 1 Recap:Spent $58,550 for securitiesSold 500 shares of XING and 500 shares of VCI for 10% gains.Final position:Cash = $1,915Securities value = $56,125Account value = $58,040 (- $510, -0.87%)If the market is down on Monday, some positions could get doubled per my rules (-10% from purchase price). Although I am down here out of the gate, I like that I am down much less than Dow (-1.63%), S&P (-2.12%) and Nasdaq (-2.81%). I remain optimistic that this plan will yield solid results going forward.
I think this is misleading if you are using the last trade value of the stock to determine your Securities Value. It is more realistic to use the Bid price since that is what you would get if you were to sell all your stocks at the end of day today. Your profit is determined by what you can sell it for not what other people are buying it for.Market headed down a good deal at the end of the session and drug the majority of these stocks down with it.Day 1 Recap:Spent $58,550 for securitiesSold 500 shares of XING and 500 shares of VCI for 10% gains.Final position:Cash = $1,915Securities value = $56,125Account value = $58,040 (- $510, -0.87%)If the market is down on Monday, some positions could get doubled per my rules (-10% from purchase price). Although I am down here out of the gate, I like that I am down much less than Dow (-1.63%), S&P (-2.12%) and Nasdaq (-2.81%). I remain optimistic that this plan will yield solid results going forward.
I have decided to change this to the following:- Dump 1/2 the stock at +10%- Dump 75% of the stock left at +20%I also plan to run this whole strategy for exactly 30 days and then close out all of these stocks at their respective prices.Sand said:I like the profit latch at 10% as well. I don't like the 20% latch. For that latch I would institute a double latch. Once it hits 20% I'd #### the trigger and then put in a trailing stop (5% of so) as the second latch to let the good ones run at least some. Not having a final trailing stop in a system like this is just giving money away.I think there are a couple of problems with this strategy:1) Nothing wrong with scalping profits at +10% and +20%. But to close the entire position at +20% doesn't allow you the chance to maximize profits when one (or more) of your selected stocks hits a "home run" and runs for gains of +100%+.
exactlygreat stock screeners/pickers/investors have tons of stocks they lost money on, however, they have killed them on 10 (or many more) baggers that more than offset their losses.My problem with this, (and this is meant to be constructive):At LEAST one of these stocks is going to double or triple in value and you will have only realized a 15% gain from it. At LEAST one of these stocks will lose most of its value, and all you did was buy more of it. You have removed most of your upside potential but none of your downside. I think the portfolio as a whole will do well, but at the end of the day you won't be holding the best companies.
Davio, I don't understand what you're doing.I have decided to change this to the following:- Dump 1/2 the stock at +10%- Dump 75% of the stock left at +20%I also plan to run this whole strategy for exactly 30 days and then close out all of these stocks at their respective prices.Sand said:I like the profit latch at 10% as well. I don't like the 20% latch. For that latch I would institute a double latch. Once it hits 20% I'd #### the trigger and then put in a trailing stop (5% of so) as the second latch to let the good ones run at least some. Not having a final trailing stop in a system like this is just giving money away.I think there are a couple of problems with this strategy:1) Nothing wrong with scalping profits at +10% and +20%. But to close the entire position at +20% doesn't allow you the chance to maximize profits when one (or more) of your selected stocks hits a "home run" and runs for gains of +100%+.
Good luck man.I wouldn't think of attempting this under current market conditions.I'll be shorting Rambus after Monday's dead cat bounce.I have decided to change this to the following:- Dump 1/2 the stock at +10%- Dump 75% of the stock left at +20%I also plan to run this whole strategy for exactly 30 days and then close out all of these stocks at their respective prices.Sand said:I like the profit latch at 10% as well. I don't like the 20% latch. For that latch I would institute a double latch. Once it hits 20% I'd #### the trigger and then put in a trailing stop (5% of so) as the second latch to let the good ones run at least some. Not having a final trailing stop in a system like this is just giving money away.I think there are a couple of problems with this strategy:1) Nothing wrong with scalping profits at +10% and +20%. But to close the entire position at +20% doesn't allow you the chance to maximize profits when one (or more) of your selected stocks hits a "home run" and runs for gains of +100%+.
This is a substatial deviation from your original strategy, and I think it is very much for the better. Only running this strategy for 30 days lessens the liklihood that you'll have those HUGE gainers and losers. It's still just a roll of the dice though. Buying stocks for 1-30 days is gambling, not investing. And there's nothing wrong with thatI have decided to change this to the following:- Dump 1/2 the stock at +10%- Dump 75% of the stock left at +20%I also plan to run this whole strategy for exactly 30 days and then close out all of these stocks at their respective prices.Sand said:I like the profit latch at 10% as well. I don't like the 20% latch. For that latch I would institute a double latch. Once it hits 20% I'd #### the trigger and then put in a trailing stop (5% of so) as the second latch to let the good ones run at least some. Not having a final trailing stop in a system like this is just giving money away.I think there are a couple of problems with this strategy:1) Nothing wrong with scalping profits at +10% and +20%. But to close the entire position at +20% doesn't allow you the chance to maximize profits when one (or more) of your selected stocks hits a "home run" and runs for gains of +100%+.
Really, you remain optimistic after a whole day? Well, I should hope so - nothing much could have changed in 1 day to sway you!Market headed down a good deal at the end of the session and drug the majority of these stocks down with it.Day 1 Recap:Spent $58,550 for securitiesSold 500 shares of XING and 500 shares of VCI for 10% gains.Final position:Cash = $1,915Securities value = $56,125Account value = $58,040 (- $510, -0.87%)If the market is down on Monday, some positions could get doubled per my rules (-10% from purchase price). Although I am down here out of the gate, I like that I am down much less than Dow (-1.63%), S&P (-2.12%) and Nasdaq (-2.81%). I remain optimistic that this plan will yield solid results going forward.
I would agree but definitely not for this exercise.Dodds is one smart but crazy dude.![]()
Is this going to cause my FBG subscription price to rise?OK, Today sucked bad. I started doubling down on some of the losers, but that even got to be too much as everything was falling badly. Into this only two days and I already think the chance of breaking even is looking slight.I have decided not to buy any more stock and will see if I can manage this out to something liveable. That's assuming any of these stocks move positive in the short term. I don't hate these companies, but I am not in love with many of these sectors either. That makes this doubly hard as oil stocks could be enticing soon (looking for crude to go below $35/barrel) I added these positions today (and most continued to drop further):Bought:1000 WRES @ 2.451000 GKK @1.371000 TXCO @ 2.171000 AHR @ 2.061000 FREE @ 1.611000 ZQK @ 1.841000 KAZ @ 1.241000 CPE @ 2.51RUTH is nearly dead after a disaterous earnings announcement. I opted not to buy more.
I'll give you that much. But once the US government decides to make all pennies worth five cents, just think how much all these stocks will be worth.Dodds is one crazy dude.![]()
The hell you sayNot sure why you're choosing stocks that have gone down 40% in the last 52 weeks. Just because a stock has gone down, that certainly doesn't mean it's going back up.
I am actually having a good year here before this little blip (Made $5K on OIL up and over $15K on SCO down). Getting too cute using google's screener I think with this trainwreck. Big lesson learned. The screener's fine to find a few gems, but pretty stupid jumping into all of these stocks at the same time, etc. So Nasdaq is down the first two days I implement this and I am now in a bloodbath with this portfolio. I am going to try to micro manage this thing the next few days (assuming some of the stocks move upwards) and see if I can lessen my position in this beast by a wide margin. My bet here soon will be with DXO and/or OIL if oil gets to $35/barrel (It hit $38/barrel today). My guess is it will still drop some as the deliveries will need to be taken (and storage is very maxed out). Crude could stay low, but I think it will volley between 35 and 45 for some time before the inventories start feeling the OPEC crimp. A war or something would likely also make oil jump.Did Dodds loose his mojo? Dave, how did you come up with the stock tip (DRYS) that made me 350% profit? Do more of that.
I'm not sure what you were expecting but the very nature of this selection criteria - stocks that have lost 40% of their value over the past year - would suggest you should expect to take a beating for the first few weeks. The chances of all or most of these stocks turning around at the exact same time is almost nil and the chances of you selecting the exact bottom to get in is even more of a longshot. Personally, this is not a strategy that I like but certainly if you are going to employ this kind of value hunting strategy you need to have a longer time horizon than it appears you have. You also need to let your winners run more than 20%.OK, Today sucked bad. I started doubling down on some of the losers, but that even got to be too much as everything was falling badly. Into this only two days and I already think the chance of breaking even is looking slight.