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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
McBokonon
Footballguy
I'm betting my life's savings and child's college money based on this post and this post alone.
Out 2,500 shares of FEED @ $4.20 - profit of $289.82Will look to buy back in again when it gets below $4.10Anybody know anything about some other small cap china stocks: FSIN? and APWR?
playin4beer
Footballguy
I am holding onto OCNF...But only because I'm too stubborn to lose money on it.... I am into 2200 shares for $1.70...Getting close....
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Housing report?
analog_hiss
Footballguy
I've been following CAEI - CHINA ARCHITECTURAL ENGINEERING, INC. I'ts trading at 1.65 (+.07 for the day), but right now I don't like the technicals.Bit busy today, might post a chart later.
#@%&$!?
Footballguy
Got in USU at 4.70. Like their long term outlook. Could pop short term on any DOE loan news. McBokonon > what indicators are you looking for before getting back in?
analog_hiss
Footballguy
Home-Builder Confidence Increases By JEFF BATER
WASHINGTON -- U.S. home builders brightened a second consecutive month, buoyed by record affordability.
The National Association of Home Builders released results of a monthly survey of builders' thoughts on market prospects. Its latest index on their sentiment for sales of new, single-family homes rose to 16 in May, from 14 in April and nine in March.
The reading in the confidence gauge -- named the Housing Market Index -- was the highest since September 2008 and suggested the worst might be over, or near, for builders.
"The fact that the May HMI continued to tick up from April's five-point increase provides confirming evidence that the improved confidence level was no fluke," NAHB chief economist David Crowe said.
A separate, quarterly NAHB report Monday -- named the Housing Opportunity Index, or HOI -- showed nationwide housing affordability jumped January-March to its highest on record.
The latest Commerce Department new-home sales data show the median price dropped 12.2% in March to $201,400, from $229,300 in March 2008. Borrowing costs are low; Freddie Mac numbers say the mortgage rate for a 30-year loan averaged 4.86% last week; the average rate in all of May 2008 was 6.04%. First-time home buyers can use a new, $8,000 tax credit, too.
"Builders are responding to what they perceive to be some of the best home buying conditions of a lifetime," NAHB Chairman Joe Robson said.
The HOI jumped 10 points during first quarter from the fourth-quarter 2008. The HOI showed 72.5% of all new and existing homes sold in the first quarter of 2009 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,000, up from 62.4% during the previous quarter. The 72.5% marked the highest level since records began 18 years ago, the NAHB said. Indianapolis was the most affordable major housing market in the country during the first quarter. Almost 95% of all homes sold were affordable to households earning the area's median family income of $68,100. Also near the top of the list of the most affordable major metro housing markets were Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa.; Akron, Ohio; Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.; and Syracuse, N.Y.
As for the HMI, a component that measures current sales conditions rose to 14 during May from 12 in April. An index gauging traffic of prospective buyers held steady at 13. An index gauging sales expectations in the next six months climbed to 27 from 24.
Crowe said the two-point climb in the overall HMI "indicates that home builders feel we're at or near the bottom of the market and that positive signs lie ahead for builders and potential home buyers, provided that builder access to production credit significantly improves."
The NAHB's overall HMI for May was based on a survey of 733 home builders, who answer questions about sales prospects now and in the near term. When the index exceeds 50, it means the number of builders who see "good" sales outnumber the number who see "poor" sales. The numbers used in compiling the index are adjusted for seasonal variations.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Which means it is also the worst conditions of a lifetime to sell.I was listening to a real estate show yesterday and the host said conditions are going to be "tough" for at least another year and more than likely at least 18 months.
#@%&$!?
Footballguy
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
The 18 month number I've heard from everyone in the media. It seems to me like a best case scenario approximation.
Apu
Footballguy
Dodds, just wanted to say thanks for this thread (and the big wheel thread).
Shortly before you started this thread, I threw some money in the stock market for some of the same reasons you outlined in the very first post. I didn’t invest nearly as much money as you, but wish I had, as I’m close to doubling up my initial investment.
Any way, it was fun following along and I learned quite a bit, so I greatly appreciate it.
Will continue to watch OCNF and PRGN as well as a few other stocks that have been mentioned over the past few months.
Hopefully you and others will continue to contribute to the thread. But I understand you not posting your trades anymore.
Good luck and thanks!
Shortly before you started this thread, I threw some money in the stock market for some of the same reasons you outlined in the very first post. I didn’t invest nearly as much money as you, but wish I had, as I’m close to doubling up my initial investment.
Any way, it was fun following along and I learned quite a bit, so I greatly appreciate it.
Will continue to watch OCNF and PRGN as well as a few other stocks that have been mentioned over the past few months.
Hopefully you and others will continue to contribute to the thread. But I understand you not posting your trades anymore.
Good luck and thanks!
David Dodds
Administrator
This play is not going to make any sense to most of you, but I just sold 10,000 shares of PRGN at 3.95 for a loss of 10 cents a share.
Here are my thoughts:
- Starting to agree with a lot of the experts that this market could be due for a huge correction
- The BDI peaked at 5/20 last year, held near that level for a few weeks before heading south
- By halving my allotment of Paragon, I position myself to be able to cost average should this go south after earnings.
- I just made a small fortune in OCNF today as well as a lot on the first run up of PRGN to nearly 5.
- I will hold/add shares of PRGN even through a market downturn (as I believe this company is a prime take over acquisition)
So I suffer a $1,000 loss, but pull nearly $40K out of the market in the process. This trade stings because I had multiple chances of selling this stock at a profit when I first purchased it at $4.05. But once it collapsed to really low levels, I was fully invested in OCNF so did not cost average to a better position.
All cash now except 10,000 shares of PRGN now at an average price of $4.05. Not sweating much of anything anymore as I will just add shares on a bad report and will reap benefits on a positive report.
Here are my thoughts:
- Starting to agree with a lot of the experts that this market could be due for a huge correction
- The BDI peaked at 5/20 last year, held near that level for a few weeks before heading south
- By halving my allotment of Paragon, I position myself to be able to cost average should this go south after earnings.
- I just made a small fortune in OCNF today as well as a lot on the first run up of PRGN to nearly 5.
- I will hold/add shares of PRGN even through a market downturn (as I believe this company is a prime take over acquisition)
So I suffer a $1,000 loss, but pull nearly $40K out of the market in the process. This trade stings because I had multiple chances of selling this stock at a profit when I first purchased it at $4.05. But once it collapsed to really low levels, I was fully invested in OCNF so did not cost average to a better position.
All cash now except 10,000 shares of PRGN now at an average price of $4.05. Not sweating much of anything anymore as I will just add shares on a bad report and will reap benefits on a positive report.
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David Dodds
Administrator
People have been very cool here. I am going to keep posting my moves. I am hopeful though people can just post their moves and not say things like they put their entire savings into things based entirely on something I have posted. I don't need nor want that kind of pressure.
Everyone needs to own their trades. I certainly have made LOTS of bad moves. This market is skittish as I type this and could crash on a moment's notice. It also could vault much higher like it has since early March.
Thanks to everyone for the kind words. I think we have all improved our skills with the help of this thread.
Everyone needs to own their trades. I certainly have made LOTS of bad moves. This market is skittish as I type this and could crash on a moment's notice. It also could vault much higher like it has since early March.
Thanks to everyone for the kind words. I think we have all improved our skills with the help of this thread.
The Ref
Footballguy
KGB
Footballguy
imk glad DD. If anyone here loses because of following, they should have known better. Im sure youll have 99% backup on that.Look at any stock message board and youll see in thier sig that "im not responsible etc" in thier sig. Now I know why.
Hopefully we all win!
bought EMSI today at 1.17. went upto 1.49 and back down to 1.38 and holding....
Wanted back into DXO on FRI, didnt have the funds.
Had an order in for BEE at 1.03. dipped there about 5 times today but order never filled. currently at 1.12
Good luck everyone
David Dodds
Administrator
Year to Date Profit = $103,239
Today's Realized Gains/Losses = 10,346
Sold 60,000 OCNF - Profit = 11,358
Sold 10,000 PRGN - Loss = 1,012
Unrealized Gains/Losses:
10,000 PRGN @ 4.05
Today's Realized Gains/Losses = 10,346
Sold 60,000 OCNF - Profit = 11,358
Sold 10,000 PRGN - Loss = 1,012
Unrealized Gains/Losses:
10,000 PRGN @ 4.05
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FEED is getting very close to its 200 day moving average. I'm not much more than a novice on technical analysis but the experience I have says that if it breaks above that it could be a very strong move to the upside. Going to look to buy some more tomorrow if the opportunity presents itself.
Otis
Footballguy
This is sick.
Just cashed my bet that you couldn't last longer than a week not posting your moves.Thanks Dodds!
bigfishboy
Footballguy
I was out of the country for a week and came back to read there were issues in this thread. I am now pretty relieved..I had always wanted to get into actively trading (I don't daytrade, one trade every few days), and never would have if not for this thread. It was the reason I finally took the plunge. If the thread dies, I now have the confidence to go on.While I have benefitted from your coat tails a couple times, I have lost on more. Anyone that puts more than gambling money into this kind of effort is a knucklehead. I hope you, and everyone else who wants to, keeps posting. If someone screws up by overextending themselves, it is their own fault.
David Dodds
Administrator
Very Interesting read here:
China Stockpiling Commodities
This would also explain the catapulting of the BDI as well as the big oil run up
China Stockpiling Commodities
This would also explain the catapulting of the BDI as well as the big oil run up
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The Ref
Footballguy
This is the most important artcile you could read about the future of the economy IMHO. China wants out of the dollar in the worst way. The artcile does not mention that China just bought 400M tons of gold as well. I like nothing more then to speculate with some stocks like PRGN and FEED, but 80% of my money is in Emerging markets and the other 15% is in gold/silver. Sell the USD.
James Daulton
Footballguy
Welcome back DD!!
SIDA!
Footballguy
Forgive me if I missed earlier trades/conversations on this stock. What prompted you to enter this stock today and why didnt you sell?
Look at any stock message board and youll see in thier sig that "im not responsible etc" in thier sig. Now I know why.
Hopefully we all win!
bought EMSI today at 1.17. went upto 1.49 and back down to 1.38 and holding....
Wanted back into DXO on FRI, didnt have the funds.
Had an order in for BEE at 1.03. dipped there about 5 times today but order never filled. currently at 1.12
Good luck everyone
David Dodds
Administrator
I suspected they had a lot to do with the run up on copper and oil and this just confirms it. I think China is smart to diversify here. I don't necessarily think the dollar will be worthless or we will have super high inflation, but these moves are great hedges against having too many eggs in one basket.
FavreCo
Footballguy
Sold FAZ today at 5.29 before the housing data becasue I knew even if it was bad, they would spin it as 'better than expected.' FAZ kicked again on that POS.I'm pretty heavily upside down in FAZ after today.
FavreCo
Footballguy
There is no doubt that the USD is going to crater and thus oil skyrockets as does inflation. That is what will kill any chance of a strong recovery.
bradyfan
Footballguy
That's terrible. Looks like Pickles' fake spidey needs a kick in the groin.I'm pretty heavily upside down in FAZ after today.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
FAZ is not a buy and hold, folks.That's terrible. Looks like Pickles' fake spidey needs a kick in the groin.I'm pretty heavily upside down in FAZ after today.
The Kerminator
Footballguy
I'm in LPIH, GHII, and CKGT. Altogether up over 33% in about two weeks. I really like the small cap china stocks moving forward.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
:boatloads:
Im going to set stops 20 cents below price all the way up to $5.25 (that way I guarantee a profit but dont miss the big run). I think if you dump today or on good news 2nite you are going to miss a big chunk of gains.
Cromedog
Footballguy
It's just risk vs reward...I would suggest selling off half of your holdings if we get a good run up today and then hold the rest through earnings...kind of a middle of the road option.Im going to set stops 20 cents below price all the way up to $5.25 (that way I guarantee a profit but dont miss the big run). I think if you dump today or on good news 2nite you are going to miss a big chunk of gains.
Revo
Footballguy
8:59 (Dow Jones) A sustainable recovery in dry bulk shipping may be underway after last year's huge plummet, according to Dahlman Rose & Co. Rising Chinese steel prices have pushed Capesize rates to more than $35,000 per day, firm says, helped by Chinese government stimulus supporting its steel industry. Dry bulk stocks are substantially leveraged to an improvement in steel demand outside China, which Dahlman sees as likely during 2H09. Depressed vessel rates could rise 20% on recent improvements in charter rates, firm says, which would help balance sheets. Upgrades Diana (DSX), Eagle (EGLE), Genco (GNK), Safe (SB), Star (SBLK) to buy and Excel (EXM) to hold. (EBW)
David Dodds
Administrator
Big day for people still in OCNF and PRGN as both are up nicely in the pre-market. And although I sold a ton off yesterday, I still am holding a nice 10,000 shares of Paragon for the ride up.
