St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
bueller
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
KGB
Footballguy
KGB
Footballguy
Been doing some research over the weekend. Most of my money is tied up in KERX and HEB, so ill only be getting into one of these probably.
If youre looking for a quick move BDSI may get approval any day now including Monday.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=bdsi
as you can see its been in steady climb including a nice after hours jump Friday. Look to exit at $10+
NEPH $1.48 http://www.google.com/finance?q=neph
pink sheet so risky. but approval deadline is close.
and
DDSS $2.05 http://www.google.com/finance?q=ddss
I think we get to$3 soon and up from there too.
Bet on BDSI's Onsolis Approval
By: Jason Napodano, CFA
May 18, 2009
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/20265/Bet+on+BDSI
In April 2009, we are initiated coverage of BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc. (BDSI - Analyst Report) with a Buy rating and a $6 price target. Since that time, the shares are up 35% on investors gaining confidence in the pending approval of Onsolis, a transmucosal fentanyl patch for breakthrough cancer pain. The FDA decision is expected on or before June 12, 2009.
We view the event as a high likelihood of approval (>80% chance). Approval would be a transformational event for BDSI. Not only would it bring about a $30 million milestone payment from worldwide commercialization partner, Meda AB, but BDSI would also receive double-digit royalties (we estimate 20%) on sales of Onsolis upon launch.
The breakthrough cancer pain market is highly competitive, and there are several formulations of fentanyl already on the market, with several more in late-stage development. But we believe that BDSI's BEMA technology offers significant advantages over existing delivery technologies, and could allow for Onsolis to be at least a $250 million peak sales drug.
A $6 price yields a market capitalization of approximately $115 million. This more fairly values the company based on the pending approval of Onsolis. Post-approval, we would not be surprised to see the shares head towards $10 per share due to the dramatically improved financial situation, and the ability it provides for management to now move two pipeline candidates, BEMA Buprenorphine and Bioral Amphotericin B, each with $500 million sales potential, forward in clinical development.
If youre looking for a quick move BDSI may get approval any day now including Monday.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=bdsi
as you can see its been in steady climb including a nice after hours jump Friday. Look to exit at $10+
NEPH $1.48 http://www.google.com/finance?q=neph
pink sheet so risky. but approval deadline is close.
and
DDSS $2.05 http://www.google.com/finance?q=ddss
I think we get to$3 soon and up from there too.
Bet on BDSI's Onsolis Approval
By: Jason Napodano, CFA
May 18, 2009
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/20265/Bet+on+BDSI
In April 2009, we are initiated coverage of BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc. (BDSI - Analyst Report) with a Buy rating and a $6 price target. Since that time, the shares are up 35% on investors gaining confidence in the pending approval of Onsolis, a transmucosal fentanyl patch for breakthrough cancer pain. The FDA decision is expected on or before June 12, 2009.
We view the event as a high likelihood of approval (>80% chance). Approval would be a transformational event for BDSI. Not only would it bring about a $30 million milestone payment from worldwide commercialization partner, Meda AB, but BDSI would also receive double-digit royalties (we estimate 20%) on sales of Onsolis upon launch.
The breakthrough cancer pain market is highly competitive, and there are several formulations of fentanyl already on the market, with several more in late-stage development. But we believe that BDSI's BEMA technology offers significant advantages over existing delivery technologies, and could allow for Onsolis to be at least a $250 million peak sales drug.
A $6 price yields a market capitalization of approximately $115 million. This more fairly values the company based on the pending approval of Onsolis. Post-approval, we would not be surprised to see the shares head towards $10 per share due to the dramatically improved financial situation, and the ability it provides for management to now move two pipeline candidates, BEMA Buprenorphine and Bioral Amphotericin B, each with $500 million sales potential, forward in clinical development.
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ODoyleRules
Footballguy
David Dodds
Administrator
and for all those laughing at my giant wheatback penny collection:
Premium for just the copper
I will say it again. The penny WILL BE DISCONTINUED soon. And by soon I think in 2010. This will allow the govt to circulate the new penny for collectors that marks the 100 year anniversary of the penny.
But when the copper value of the older pennies (1909 - 1982) far exceeds the worth of the coin, something has to change. With the nickel also costing a lot in metal value to print, I think the prudent move is simply to do away with the nickel and allow the penny to replace it. Basically a one-time upgrade for everyone where any combination of 20 pennies or nickels now equal a dollar. And then all items get rounded to the nearest nickel going forward.
This would save money a few ways. The govt could halt production of pennies and nickles for at least a few years. The govt would stop making nickels and replace them with the lower cost penny.
Disclosure: I have lots of pennies (mostly wheatbacks)
Premium for just the copper
I will say it again. The penny WILL BE DISCONTINUED soon. And by soon I think in 2010. This will allow the govt to circulate the new penny for collectors that marks the 100 year anniversary of the penny.
But when the copper value of the older pennies (1909 - 1982) far exceeds the worth of the coin, something has to change. With the nickel also costing a lot in metal value to print, I think the prudent move is simply to do away with the nickel and allow the penny to replace it. Basically a one-time upgrade for everyone where any combination of 20 pennies or nickels now equal a dollar. And then all items get rounded to the nearest nickel going forward.
This would save money a few ways. The govt could halt production of pennies and nickles for at least a few years. The govt would stop making nickels and replace them with the lower cost penny.
Disclosure: I have lots of pennies (mostly wheatbacks)
Das Boot
Footballguy
I've never laughed at your wheat penny idea, I thought it was innovative even though I don't think they'll ever have much of a premium as wheat pennies.I am curious whether the intrinsic copper value will ever cause the price of the older pennies to rise .
And I was not aware that the newer pennies (i.e. non-wheat backs) were 95% copper all the way through 1982 - according to the chart at your link.
If there's ever an expectation that the copper value will be significant, then the shark move would be getting the non wheat backs through 1982.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
On the heels of all the oil discussion and now the natural gas plays, I'm interested in thoughts from the gallery on a less sexy commodity -- water. Shortages in the US and elsewhere and potential emerging Asia markets have had me interested for awhile and the UNG/CHK talk prompted another look.
Considering long term plays on VE (French water and wastewater company with global contracts), CCC (activated carbon provider for water purification with recent contract in Japan) and/or an ETF like CGW or PHO with global holdings. Another stock I've seen get a little love closer to home is WTR, but I don't see much global expansion there.
Not sure any of these are short term rocketships that'll provide the water for our moats (VE 31.22 off 52wk high 61.23, CCC 13.16 off 52wk high 23.02), but since we're looking at commodities I thought I'd throw them out for discussion.
Considering long term plays on VE (French water and wastewater company with global contracts), CCC (activated carbon provider for water purification with recent contract in Japan) and/or an ETF like CGW or PHO with global holdings. Another stock I've seen get a little love closer to home is WTR, but I don't see much global expansion there.
Not sure any of these are short term rocketships that'll provide the water for our moats (VE 31.22 off 52wk high 61.23, CCC 13.16 off 52wk high 23.02), but since we're looking at commodities I thought I'd throw them out for discussion.
The Ref
Footballguy
Dodds - if your ever in the peoples republic of Massachusetts, we need to get a cup of coffee sometime. For the past two weeks the Refs house has three change containers. One for "silver". One for post 1982 pennies. And one for pre 1982 pennies. Two weekends ago I sorted all the change in the house to weed out the pre 1982 pennies.This is all you need to know as to why everyone should separate out the pre 82 pennies (yes I need a hobby).
It takes 154 pennies to make a pound of copper (forget the small zinc content)
154 pennies = $1.54
1 LB of copper = $2.38
http://www.coinflation.com/coins/basemetal...calculator.html
Thing is if copper stays at $2.33 a lb, your not picking up much value here. But if it goes to $4 a lb, or if inflation does in fact pick up and copper goes to $5-$10 a lb you’re going to be real happy you sorted out the pennies. From what I have experienced over the past few weeks it seems like 1 out of every 4 pennies in circulation is pre 82, so it isn't difficult to accumulate copper pennies. For what it's worth these facts are the reason why it's now illegal to melt down pennies.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=2725597&page=1
The Ref
Footballguy
The best thing I could come up with is...http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IPSU
They had a lot of production cut off at the end of last year due to an explosion in one of the factories they operate. There were also a few fatalities in this accident so there may be some legal issues. Set aside any one time hits related to this accident they are not a particularly profitable company. The stock has already more then doubled already off the lows. I guess what I am getting as is I'm not that interested. Wouldn’t overly surprise me if they do well in the future as this was a mid $30s stock back in 2007, but this isn’t nearly as cheap as I would have liked ($12).
David Dodds
Administrator
Yes, I have tons of these too
David Dodds
Administrator
In fact, I think an investor with limited funds could likely do very good for himself to get pennies, pull out the pre-1982 ones and turn the other ones back to the bank. At some point the copper will be too valuable and the policy for melting will change. My guess is this will happen in less than 5 years and possibly way sooner. If the government does make this coin worth a nickel as I am suggesting, that is a ridiculous return for hoarding these things. If they just lift the melting ban as they discontinue the coin (the 1/2 cent was killed and it had 11X more buying power than our currect penny), then you still are likely looking at 100-150% return in 5 years.Yes, I have tons of these too
The Ref
Footballguy
My personal belief is that we are in a historic time economically in this country. In short, the picture isn't pretty for the USD. Any money you can invest in overseas markets or in real goods is money well invested. Even if I’m completely wrong about USD inflation risk, growth overseas relative to the USA market alone makes overseas investment a no brainier. Overseas markets need commodities to fuel growth and there are no better inflation guard then real goods.1. Get out of the USD.2. Get into emerging markets (Most still trading at 10-15 year lows)3. Buy commodities
The Ref
Footballguy
This looks like a reat investment opertunity, it's just a question of where you can find mass unsorted pennies. You would need thousands of dollars in pennies to be worth it.http://www.ryedalecoin.com/In fact, I think an investor with limited funds could likely do very good for himself to get pennies, pull out the pre-1982 ones and turn the other ones back to the bank. At some point the copper will be too valuable and the policy for melting will change. My guess is this will happen in less than 5 years and possibly way sooner. If the government does make this coin worth a nickel as I am suggesting, that is a ridiculous return for hoarding these things. If they just lift the melting ban as they discontinue the coin (the 1/2 cent was killed and it had 11X more buying power than our currect penny), then you still are likely looking at 100-150% return in 5 years.Yes, I have tons of these too
David Dodds
Administrator
I have seen big jars of pennies at estate sales. But yes getting bulk pennies is the real challenge here.This looks like a reat investment opertunity, it's just a question of where you can find mass unsorted pennies. You would need thousands of dollars in pennies to be worth it.http://www.ryedalecoin.com/In fact, I think an investor with limited funds could likely do very good for himself to get pennies, pull out the pre-1982 ones and turn the other ones back to the bank. At some point the copper will be too valuable and the policy for melting will change. My guess is this will happen in less than 5 years and possibly way sooner. If the government does make this coin worth a nickel as I am suggesting, that is a ridiculous return for hoarding these things. If they just lift the melting ban as they discontinue the coin (the 1/2 cent was killed and it had 11X more buying power than our currect penny), then you still are likely looking at 100-150% return in 5 years.Yes, I have tons of these too
NajehHejan
Footballguy
It's good to hear some overall investing philosophies. Mine has changed numerous times since I got back into the game in January (in large part due to this excellent thread - thanks again Dodds). I got into the hardcore penny stocks for a bit there, but after the roller coaster rides of SPNG, IGNT, and MGLG, I'm gonna chill on those for a while - not even going to try to day trade them like I was thinking just last Friday. My portfolio right now consists of HEB, CTIC, and AGEN. Based on my extensive DD, I think all three of these will eventually be 5, 8, or even 10 baggers. HEB should come soon, CTIC hopefully by year end, and AGEN hopefully in 2010. I'm going to try hard to hold all 3 positions until I get at least a 500% return - patience is very hard as you all know. I've found it too hard to time dips and spikes. Also, I've been very busy at work so it's hard to stay on top of the daily price fluctuations. Not to mention, stupid motherduckers are always swinging by my cubicle - it gets embarassing always having stock charts or Ameritrade up on my computer screen. So right now I have about 2 grand cash from the SPNG scare. My thinking with this 2 grand is to pick a stock that I think will go up about 10-20% and then buy it, flip it, and then find a new stock. I'll need to focus on securities priced between $1 and $5 per share as stocks above that are much more difficult to net you a quick 10-20% gain. Right now I'm deciding between XOMA (at 92 cents, I think this can easily go to about $1.10 for a quick 20%) or CNO (at 2.40, just needs to go up to 2.64 for a 10% gain). Both of these stocks have 10-20% appreciation in them, based on the charts, as long as real bad news or a big bear market push doesn't come (lots of talk about the impending bear, so a BIG if). Good luck everyone.
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Which emerging markets are better investments? Latin America? Asian emerging markets? India?
optionmaven
Footballguy
Assuming some, most, or all was profit, you should never feel bad about doing this. I pulled down 5k out of my account to enjoy for me and my family. I put in 20 to 30 hours a week in this hobby/second job and think its really important to do this. Makes me hungrier to make up the "loss" too.Kinda in the doldrums today. A couple of days ago I shifted $7000 from my trading account to our checking account and used the money to buy this trombone four our son, paid for our daughter's dance school though June of next year, and took care of one of our trips this summer that we put on our credit card last month.
Having things paid for is great, but man, I was used to seeing that trading account around 16,000, and now it's just under 9,000. Being a tightwad, it really makes me gun shy about security purchases. Looks like I might have to do some drinking this weekend and come out swing Monday. I'll spend some time researching Saturday night and Sunday, maybe I can dig up a diamond in the rough.
Have a great weekend all!
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
HEB CEO Interview from 6/12 if anyone is doing their homework...http://biomedreports.com/articles/most-pop...nc-amexheb.html
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The Ref
Footballguy
D. All of the above.Nobody can say in 10 years what will be the best, but I think it's fair to say that all will grow faster then the USA. My guess would be China, but I don't have a crystal ball. I'm taking the approach of investing in a EM ETF so all the bases are covered.
Alias
Footballguy
Here are five, like any in particular?(yields are current, but quoted stats are from Feb 14, 2009)
YTD: +62.56% * The iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ) has net assets of $3.4 billion, a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.0, and a dividend yield of 6%. Money Morning Contributing Editor Horacio Marquez recently recommended this Brazilian ETF in this weekly “Buy, Sell or Hold” series.
YTD: +53.19% * The iShares MSCI Chile investable Index (ECH) has net assets of only $112 million and a P/E of 13. However, Chile is interesting because it built up a reserve fund of $21 billion (12% of GDP) during the years when copper prices were high - it is thus not dependent on foreign-fund inflows.
YTD: +35.99% * The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI) invests in the 25 largest Chinese companies. Net assets are $5.9 billion, its P/E ratio 10, and its yield 2.7%.
YTD: +33.73% * The iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT) has net assets of $1.3 billion, a P/E of 9 and a yield of 8%. Taiwan is highly liquid, with large reserves, a high savings rate and almost no foreign debt
YTD: +34.18% * The iShares MSCI Singapore Index (EWS) has net assets of $800 million, a P/E of 9 and a yield of 8%. Like Taiwan, Singapore is highly liquid, with large foreign exchange reserves and little debt. Taiwanese and Singapore companies may indeed benefit from the liquidity crunch by finding attractive investment opportunities in regional cash-short emerging markets with high growth potential, such as Vietnam.
http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/02/14/eme...g-markets-etfs/
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David Dodds
Administrator
Some fun stuff regarding HEB and possibly why this approval is a bit tough on the FDA. It seems Carter has this drug curing everything:
HEB Proposed Ampligen Uses Per Company Press Releases, Interviews and Patent Applications
1. Alzheimer's Disease (1999 Patent No. 5958718)
2. Anthrax Vaccine (Through Leverage - Immune Enhancement) (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
3. Arthritis (1995 United States Patent 5683986)
4. Avian Flu - when combined with the neuraminidase inhibitors Oseltamivir, (brand name Tamiflu) and with Zanamivir (Relenza) (June 2007)
5. Bioterrorism Rapid Response Tool (June 2006)
6. Bladder Cancer (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
7. CFS/ME (NDA Accepted for Review July 2008, further animal studies due mid-2009, FDA to respond May 2009 per Carter – HEB Announces 1-2 week delay end of May 2009)
8. CFS – Heart Attack Mitigation Measure (February 22, 2009 Interview)
9. CFS – Reduction in Dependence on Concomitant Medications (Strayer – March 13, 2009 Presentation)
10. CFS – As a Suicide Amelioration Tool (Conference Call May 15, 2009)
11. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (1987 via Tobacco)
12. Colon Cancer (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
13. Common Flu (Carter Quote March 2006) (As a vaccine adjunct)
14. Coxsackie Virus
15. Dengue Fever virus (October 2003)
16. Ebola
17. Emphysema (1987 via Tobacco)
18. Equine Encephalitis Virus (October 2003)
19. Fibromyalgia (January 28, 2009 Interview)
20. Gulf War Syndrome (January 1997)
21. Hepatitis B
22. Hepatitis C
23. HHV-6
24. HIV/AIDS
25. Influenza (as a Vaccine Immune Enhancer) (December 14, 2007 Press Release).
26. Japanese Encephalitis Virus (October 2003)
27. Lung Cancer (1987 via Tobacco)
28. Malaria Vaccine (Through Leverage - Immune Enhancement) (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
29. Malignant Glioblastoma (Brain Tumor) (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
30. Malignant Melanoma
31. Monkey Lung Inflammation (June 2006)
32. Multiple Sclerosis (Carter 1995)
33. Myocarditis
34. Ovarian Cancer (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
35. Panoramic Flu Protection (to fight flu mutation – Swine Flu) ( April 28, 2009)
36. Prostate Cancer (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
37. Renal Cell Carcinoma
38. SARS
39. Septic shock subsequent to trauma, burns, surgery, transfusion, radiation therapy or chemotherapy (US Patent 5763417 - Year 1995).
40. Small Pox
41. Solid Tumors (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
42. Swine Flu (in the Intranasal Dosage Form for Mucosal Administration) (April 27, 2009 Press Release)
43. Swine Flu in Monkey Models (Vaccine) (Biomedreports.com Article June 5, 2009)(“ all of the sickest animals' lives have been saved after researchers added a little Ampligen”)
44. Tobacco Mosaic Virus infection (1987 on the Tobacco itself)
45. Tuberculosis (Ampligen with AZT 1996 presentation)
46. Universal Flu Vaccine (using the experimental adjuvant, Ampligen)(May 21, 2009 Press Release)
47. Vascular Disease (1987 via Tobacco)
48. West Nile Virus
49. With DOGS [not the animals] - Vaccine Technology Platform (VACCINE ENHANCE) [This is a “refinement/enhancement” of proposed Use Number 5]
50. “911 Project” (November 20, 2001) – To Combat Small Pox and Potential Terrorist Threats
Diseases Identified in 1995 Patent Application to be treated via topical cream or condom coating
51. Cytomegalovirus or CMV (sometimes classified as a herpes-type virus)
52. Herpes Simplex
53. Herpes Zoster
54. Localized skin cancer with and without vital etiology
55. Susceptible sexually transmitted viral conditions and venereal infections including Chlamydia
56. Venereal infections in which the causative viral agent is primary or secondary to another venereal infection itself insensitive or less than adequately controlled by mismatched dsRNA which secondary infection is being treated by another therapeutic modality (such as a concurrent gonorrheal infection for which the patient is receiving tetracycline therapy).
HEB Proposed Ampligen Uses Per Company Press Releases, Interviews and Patent Applications
1. Alzheimer's Disease (1999 Patent No. 5958718)
2. Anthrax Vaccine (Through Leverage - Immune Enhancement) (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
3. Arthritis (1995 United States Patent 5683986)
4. Avian Flu - when combined with the neuraminidase inhibitors Oseltamivir, (brand name Tamiflu) and with Zanamivir (Relenza) (June 2007)
5. Bioterrorism Rapid Response Tool (June 2006)
6. Bladder Cancer (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
7. CFS/ME (NDA Accepted for Review July 2008, further animal studies due mid-2009, FDA to respond May 2009 per Carter – HEB Announces 1-2 week delay end of May 2009)
8. CFS – Heart Attack Mitigation Measure (February 22, 2009 Interview)
9. CFS – Reduction in Dependence on Concomitant Medications (Strayer – March 13, 2009 Presentation)
10. CFS – As a Suicide Amelioration Tool (Conference Call May 15, 2009)
11. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (1987 via Tobacco)
12. Colon Cancer (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
13. Common Flu (Carter Quote March 2006) (As a vaccine adjunct)
14. Coxsackie Virus
15. Dengue Fever virus (October 2003)
16. Ebola
17. Emphysema (1987 via Tobacco)
18. Equine Encephalitis Virus (October 2003)
19. Fibromyalgia (January 28, 2009 Interview)
20. Gulf War Syndrome (January 1997)
21. Hepatitis B
22. Hepatitis C
23. HHV-6
24. HIV/AIDS
25. Influenza (as a Vaccine Immune Enhancer) (December 14, 2007 Press Release).
26. Japanese Encephalitis Virus (October 2003)
27. Lung Cancer (1987 via Tobacco)
28. Malaria Vaccine (Through Leverage - Immune Enhancement) (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
29. Malignant Glioblastoma (Brain Tumor) (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
30. Malignant Melanoma
31. Monkey Lung Inflammation (June 2006)
32. Multiple Sclerosis (Carter 1995)
33. Myocarditis
34. Ovarian Cancer (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
35. Panoramic Flu Protection (to fight flu mutation – Swine Flu) ( April 28, 2009)
36. Prostate Cancer (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
37. Renal Cell Carcinoma
38. SARS
39. Septic shock subsequent to trauma, burns, surgery, transfusion, radiation therapy or chemotherapy (US Patent 5763417 - Year 1995).
40. Small Pox
41. Solid Tumors (November 5, 2007 Conference Call)
42. Swine Flu (in the Intranasal Dosage Form for Mucosal Administration) (April 27, 2009 Press Release)
43. Swine Flu in Monkey Models (Vaccine) (Biomedreports.com Article June 5, 2009)(“ all of the sickest animals' lives have been saved after researchers added a little Ampligen”)
44. Tobacco Mosaic Virus infection (1987 on the Tobacco itself)
45. Tuberculosis (Ampligen with AZT 1996 presentation)
46. Universal Flu Vaccine (using the experimental adjuvant, Ampligen)(May 21, 2009 Press Release)
47. Vascular Disease (1987 via Tobacco)
48. West Nile Virus
49. With DOGS [not the animals] - Vaccine Technology Platform (VACCINE ENHANCE) [This is a “refinement/enhancement” of proposed Use Number 5]
50. “911 Project” (November 20, 2001) – To Combat Small Pox and Potential Terrorist Threats
Diseases Identified in 1995 Patent Application to be treated via topical cream or condom coating
51. Cytomegalovirus or CMV (sometimes classified as a herpes-type virus)
52. Herpes Simplex
53. Herpes Zoster
54. Localized skin cancer with and without vital etiology
55. Susceptible sexually transmitted viral conditions and venereal infections including Chlamydia
56. Venereal infections in which the causative viral agent is primary or secondary to another venereal infection itself insensitive or less than adequately controlled by mismatched dsRNA which secondary infection is being treated by another therapeutic modality (such as a concurrent gonorrheal infection for which the patient is receiving tetracycline therapy).
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
He only had to be right once.....1 out of 57 aint bad.
David Dodds
Administrator
This still feels like a snake oil salesman, but you know what...I want more shares. I think it's going to be a key ingredient in the fight against H1N1. I think this thing gaps up at the open based on Carter's interview, HEBs inclusion into the Russel 3000 (while they bounce the Street out), etc. I still am not sure the FDA approves this thing, but Japan and other countries want to use this now.He only had to be right once.....1 out of 57 aint bad.
Do you see it going over $5?This still feels like a snake oil salesman, but you know what...I want more shares. I think it's going to be a key ingredient in the fight against H1N1. I think this thing gaps up at the open based on Carter's interview, HEBs inclusion into the Russel 3000 (while they bounce the Street out), etc. I still am not sure the FDA approves this thing, but Japan and other countries want to use this now.He only had to be right once.....1 out of 57 aint bad.
David Dodds
Administrator
If it gets approved by the FDA, it will likely be a rocketship (I could see $12 immediately and possibly $20 within a few weeks). Failing to get approved, I can see it slide to about $1.25 or lower (depending on what the FDA says). I think this gaps up at the opening on Monday and finishes the day above $3.00. I probably will not buy, but could sell if it catapults above $3.Do you see it going over $5?This still feels like a snake oil salesman, but you know what...I want more shares. I think it's going to be a key ingredient in the fight against H1N1. I think this thing gaps up at the open based on Carter's interview, HEBs inclusion into the Russel 3000 (while they bounce the Street out), etc. I still am not sure the FDA approves this thing, but Japan and other countries want to use this now.He only had to be right once.....1 out of 57 aint bad.
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Usually chasing the highest YTD returners is a bad idea IMO.I would check out FNI
(First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund: First Trust ISE Chindia Index Fund)
http://www.smartmoney.com/etf-quote/?symbo...earchType=quote
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ODoyleRules
Footballguy
Typically speaking (and by all means, not in all cases), when a drug is submitted to the FDA by a small outfit, such as HEB, there are usually a lot of issues with the drug, be it safety or lack of efficacy. If the drug was that terrific, some other company with bigger $ probably would have scooped it up by now.Also, approvals in Japan take a long long time. I recognize they could be speedy given their fears of H1N1, but an unproven drug not seeking an indication for H1N1 is not the horse I'd back.My history of seeing since these things flame out time and time again is why I'm skittish. I realize that I'll miss out on momentum runs like HEB had over the past 3 weeks, but I just couldn't rightly put my money into something that has this many red flags.This still feels like a snake oil salesman, but you know what...I want more shares. I think it's going to be a key ingredient in the fight against H1N1. I think this thing gaps up at the open based on Carter's interview, HEBs inclusion into the Russel 3000 (while they bounce the Street out), etc. I still am not sure the FDA approves this thing, but Japan and other countries want to use this now.He only had to be right once.....1 out of 57 aint bad.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Every time I see this, I look for a reason to run from this stock. The vaccine adjuvant potential is very intriguing and the studies in Japan are promising, but Ampligen isn't the only dog in that race.This NDA is for chronic fatigue syndrome. It's a diagnosis that isn't fully understood. There's no known cause. There's no known mechanism of action for the drug. The studies aren't exactly slam dunks with respect to improving symptoms. This drug has been up before the FDA before and not passed muster. There are suggestions that Carter has been pretty shady with the drug (shopping for indications) and his company.I've been playing HEB as a swing trade and have thankfully been lucky enough to build up some free shares. And the flu indications seem promising. But I have no idea whether this is a legitimate candidate for approval for CFS. I think this drug has a very reasonable chance at falling to the 10-20% of those not approved after reaching Phase III. I'd expect the pps to seriously tank, swine flu aside, if approval is denied again. To me, that would be a strong suggestion that the FDA doesn't see this as a viable candidate for anything. I think we'd see less than 1.00/share without a huge spec runup to the 4.00 range before the decision. I'm not sure Japan etal can overcome an unfavorable FDA result and keep this stock afloat in the near term.I think at least 75% of any monies invested in HEB are at extremely high risk.I think we see a bump tomorrow, too. But I'd fully expect to see some additional manipulation and extreme volatility leading up to an FDA decision. Free shares or not, I'm seriously considering dumping most of my holdings again tomorrow if there's a huge run.The upside is awfully alluring, but it cannot be stressed enough that this is very high risk play.
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Related to the copper discussion above, does anyone have any thoughts on TGB? Seems to be an interesting little small cap mining operation primarily focused on copper and gold currently. Might be another upside play, though I can't get a handle on when the bump could come.
David Dodds
Administrator
My thoughts exactly. Outside of approval, the news is as good as it gets for Monday (Carter interview, added to Russell 3000, Japan news as use as an adjuvant). I am looking to sell for my profit and ride this from the sidelines. If it truly is the wonder-drug Carter claims it is, this thing will be in play for many years to come. I think it's biggest hope is actually as an adjuvant (and that's hardly been tested). If the FDA rejects this, but wants more studies as an adjuvant, I will be looking to repurchase near a $1 a share.
i was in Heb for a few days until i read up on the drug and the company and then bailed as quickly as i could.this company has been shady in the past and as posted above they have tried to push through Ampligen for so many things it's quite humorous. Also right after their new stock offering they started throwing big bonuses to top execs. Sounds like a company that is taking advantage of the hype to get money as quick as they can while the stock has some legs.There isn't enough upside to short the stock since it's so low, but i think going long on this thing is suicidal with anything more then pocket change as the chances for approval are slim to none. Reading the complete morons on the yahoo HEB message board just solidifies my thoughts on HEB, it's a suckers bet.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Yes there are red flags and a checkered past with the company/CEO/wonder drug, but the following can not be discounted:1) Ampligen has been used for the treatment of CFS on a named patient basis with favorable results2) Ampligen has already passed the FDA requirements for safety. Repeat, it has already passed for safety. HEB used to send safety updates to the FDA and they told them they are no longer needed. This is a huge hurdle that has been cleared3) There is no current medicine for CFS, yet about 6 million Americans are diagnosed with CFS. This covers another key FDA requirment - does the drug serve an unmet medical need4) There is a new FDA director. Prior history will be taken into consideration but the fact that there is a new chief one could argue this works in HEB's favor Having said all that, I would not be surprised to see the FDA not approve Ampligen this time around. However, i just don't see that happening.i was in Heb for a few days until i read up on the drug and the company and then bailed as quickly as i could.this company has been shady in the past and as posted above they have tried to push through Ampligen for so many things it's quite humorous. Also right after their new stock offering they started throwing big bonuses to top execs. Sounds like a company that is taking advantage of the hype to get money as quick as they can while the stock has some legs.There isn't enough upside to short the stock since it's so low, but i think going long on this thing is suicidal with anything more then pocket change as the chances for approval are slim to none. Reading the complete morons on the yahoo HEB message board just solidifies my thoughts on HEB, it's a suckers bet.
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David Dodds
Administrator
I don't really know what to think, but I have a feeling it will be up in the pre-market. That works for me. At it's current price the risk/reward is still very favorable. And i think it might take a bit of wrangling (and a higher price) for some people to part with their shares.
i really hope HEB works out, but just know the guy who leads this company is a complete quack.
The guy has tried to get this drug passed for any possible cause you can think of. CFS is just another one he's trying since it is such a vague "disease". This guy is the laughing stock of the legitimate medical community.
Below is my favorite thing he claimed.
Dr. Carter's fundamental premise is that Ampligen delivered in cigarette smoke to the smokers would result in a multi-site stimulation of the immune system in the respiratory and cardiovascular system thus protecting the smoker from lung cancer, emphysema, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and vascular disease. Ampligen could be applied to tobacco in the field (to prevent Tobacco Mosaic Virus infection), to tobacco in the cigarette manufacturing process or to the filter during cigarette manufacturing. Application to tobacco in the field is difficult since the amount and uniformity of application would be difficult to control and the stability of Ampligen under these conditions is unknown. Application to tobacco during cigarette manufacturing could be controlled although transfer to cigarette smoke of a biologically active fragment(s) is a major problem. Likewise, transfer of Ampligen to smoke from a cellulose acetate filter is also a major problem. Efficacy, survivability and shelf life are all unknowns relative to cigarettes and cigarette smoke. Futhermore, pyrolysis products and toxicology of Ampligen in the context of cigarette smoke are unknowns.
Link to original article
The guy has tried to get this drug passed for any possible cause you can think of. CFS is just another one he's trying since it is such a vague "disease". This guy is the laughing stock of the legitimate medical community.
Below is my favorite thing he claimed.
Dr. Carter's fundamental premise is that Ampligen delivered in cigarette smoke to the smokers would result in a multi-site stimulation of the immune system in the respiratory and cardiovascular system thus protecting the smoker from lung cancer, emphysema, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and vascular disease. Ampligen could be applied to tobacco in the field (to prevent Tobacco Mosaic Virus infection), to tobacco in the cigarette manufacturing process or to the filter during cigarette manufacturing. Application to tobacco in the field is difficult since the amount and uniformity of application would be difficult to control and the stability of Ampligen under these conditions is unknown. Application to tobacco during cigarette manufacturing could be controlled although transfer to cigarette smoke of a biologically active fragment(s) is a major problem. Likewise, transfer of Ampligen to smoke from a cellulose acetate filter is also a major problem. Efficacy, survivability and shelf life are all unknowns relative to cigarettes and cigarette smoke. Futhermore, pyrolysis products and toxicology of Ampligen in the context of cigarette smoke are unknowns.
Link to original article
Das Boot
Footballguy
Biotech investors I know consider HEB to essentially be a snake oil company.With nimble trading, money sure can be made on it during pump/hype times like right now.
But history will almost certainly repeat itself again soon and leave a lot of bag holders unfortunately.
Das Boot said:
That's the history of this company. Try to get this drug approved for everything and anything, pump up the stock during the review process, and issue more shares to make money to keep the company alive. It's been rinse and repeat for this company for decades.Definitely money can be made during the hype period, but as you said those who end up holding through the actual FDA decision will almost certainly get burned. In a lot of ways it's a pyramid scheme with the company, those who get in early on the hype and then sell can make money, but those who get in at the end and hold lose. I also read they have had issues with the SEC in the past.
I really am not trying to be a buzz kill, but at the same time i think anyone invested in this company should really read up on this companies history.
Also there are no known causes of CFS, it is basically given when no proven diagnoses can be given to a patient who is tired all the time and thought by many to be a psychological disease...not that it will stop HEB from eventually claiming they can cure mental diseases as well with their wonder drug.
David Dodds
Administrator
I have never anticipated an opening like I do for HEB today...LOL.
David Dodds
Administrator
I think it blows past that actually.
optionmaven
Footballguy
Getting near that number now in premarket. Last tick i saw was @ 2.84 with a green up arrow.
optionmaven
Footballguy
A highly volatile week ahead. Playing June options right now is the pure essence of gambling.
Anybody else holding Bank of America presently??? I've seen my 4 legs of the august 10 dollar calls move up 80%. Purchased at 2.25 and now selling at 4.05. Cramu has been touting this for a while. I'm going to look to build a larger position (in the future) but in the short-term i'm going to buy a few protective puts.
Anybody else holding Bank of America presently??? I've seen my 4 legs of the august 10 dollar calls move up 80%. Purchased at 2.25 and now selling at 4.05. Cramu has been touting this for a while. I'm going to look to build a larger position (in the future) but in the short-term i'm going to buy a few protective puts.
pre-market and after market quotes are almost always insignificant. the trading volumes are extremely thin and often it is just a few trades that make up the quotes.On occasion they are valuable, but I've learned to almost always ignore these quotes (exceptions would be something like fda approval, bankruptcy declarations, etc...) on a normal day to day type atmosphere.
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
Whoever pimped BDSI a few days ago ... good job ... up 29% pre-market ....
No, I didn't get any ...
No, I didn't get any ...
