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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
The Ref
Footballguy
The Dollar is pulling off a rally of sorts, back over 75 and getting close to 76. If the greenback can get back to the initial resistance of 77 during the summer, the party might be over for a while and the USD may stage a short rally.
Long term the USD is about as bad fundamentally as it can get. Short term the market has run out of steam a bit and fear may (or may not) be seeping back into the market. Not sure if this is simple trading or not - but is something I think we should all monitor. I'm not ready to call the rally over yet, but there may be some flight to safety happening.
We shall see.
Long term the USD is about as bad fundamentally as it can get. Short term the market has run out of steam a bit and fear may (or may not) be seeping back into the market. Not sure if this is simple trading or not - but is something I think we should all monitor. I'm not ready to call the rally over yet, but there may be some flight to safety happening.
We shall see.
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Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Are we supposed to sell everything and run? Seems like we're heading down finally 
The Ref
Footballguy
Not sure yet. The USD Index got to 76.04 and headed back down a tad. 76.04 was as low as it got this summer before it headed back up to 77.20 and ultimately headed back down towards < 75. I'd love it if one of you chart guys could have a look at this. If this cracks 76.04 I would think we may retest 77.20. And we if get though that it could mean 78.75 is in the cards.Are we supposed to sell everything and run? Seems like we're heading down finally
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=DXY%3AIND
I guess the important question in my eyes is do the fundamentals against the USD take it into uncharted territory, or does the USD have a dead cat bounce of sorts? And if the later does the USD rally spark a sell off and does the sell off push the USD higher in a flight to quality trade (and round and round we go).
siffoin
Footballguy
There is nothing specific about the next 2 weeks...I was just saying I'll have a better grasp of the overall picture in 2 weeks. We should make a higher high by then for the bullish scenario. If we correct...I don't think we go straight down to 920-940...but that would be an area of reasonable correction. Getting to 920-40 would likely take weeks (like 6-8 would be a guess).The same can be said if the more bearish scenario unfolds. i don't think we just collapse down to below 650...there are multiple places of support along the way. The July low being primary.You might remember that way back in February my feeling was the low in the markets wouldn't occur until March-Oct 2011. And though a rally was somewhat expected I NEVER thought it would be THIS strong and last THIS long.I definitely failed by not taking more aggressive positions when the daily trend turned in Late March. (I had been buying into the market via writing puts...and once long...writing calls...which then got taken away...and never had another good entry...though I should have just kept with the put writing).But the aforementioned post was just for fun...not a warning. I'm purely looking at charts...Tech Analysis and I post it more as a record because I want to be better at catching tops and bottoms in addition to riding the trends of each...that is $.
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
FBN has been moving up and down between $4.50 - $6.00 for about 2 months now, and is currently at $4.79. I think I'm getting in.
optionmaven
Footballguy
Someone talk me out of buying BAIDU options today. Someone tell me the market is going down and going to stay down for a few months. I remember me recommending it at 270, not buying and it running up 150+ points. Still, with the blowout last night this morning, its still 80 pts to the good from that 270 mark.
Buy order in for more ACLS if it trips at 1.00.
Buy order in for more ACLS if it trips at 1.00.
paz1
Footballguy
on what?
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Looks like its time again to load up on HEB
I have a buy set with a TRAILING STOP @ 2%
I have a buy set with a TRAILING STOP @ 2%
KGB
Footballguy
What the heck. In HEB @ 1.60 too
The Ref
Footballguy
Well the USD index just crossed the bottom and is trending higher. You never can tell, but I think the USD is in a dead cat bounce. Who knows how far the rebound will go?
For the record I'm selling all my Emerging markets and International positions at the end of the day and headed back to cash for the short term until The USD trend defines it's self.
I'm still unsure what I'm going to do with my largely energy based trading account positions. I'm ahead on just about all of it right now and it's the one sector where the stocks continue to do well. I'm afraid that won't continue if the USD goes up and the market comes down. I may liquidate for now and get ready to sell short if the USD continues up.
I'm not calling for a correction 100%, but I do think one as likely starting right now as has been likely since March.
Long term I'm short the USD (and I'm not selling my Gold/Silver/Euro off), but the rest of 2009 could get rough.
For the record I'm selling all my Emerging markets and International positions at the end of the day and headed back to cash for the short term until The USD trend defines it's self.
I'm still unsure what I'm going to do with my largely energy based trading account positions. I'm ahead on just about all of it right now and it's the one sector where the stocks continue to do well. I'm afraid that won't continue if the USD goes up and the market comes down. I may liquidate for now and get ready to sell short if the USD continues up.
I'm not calling for a correction 100%, but I do think one as likely starting right now as has been likely since March.
Long term I'm short the USD (and I'm not selling my Gold/Silver/Euro off), but the rest of 2009 could get rough.
Mose
Footballguy
anyone know why this is continuing to plummet?
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Sold BP @ 58.50
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
Apparently out of the driveway.
Mose
Footballguy
down another 12% today. This thing is down like 30% in 3 days on no news.
Reaper
Footballguy
Hmmmm, I just bought more
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Looks like almost everythign is tanking right now. FEED down 10% on the day. SLBK too.
Wish I had some more $$ to invest as these look like they'll rebound for sure.
Wish I had some more $$ to invest as these look like they'll rebound for sure.
The Ref
Footballguy
Carefull with this. I'm not saying your wrong, but I'm a market close and .10 points away on the USD Index from calling a market in correction.I'm happy I sold 75% of my stuff yesterday, but a little ticked that I didn't get to my wifes 403b in time to sell at close of day today.
paz1
Footballguy
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
siffoin
Footballguy
For those who have had interest.
I'm back to twittering real time trades on the futs. Hopefully this process can be sustained. Been doing very well here. About $1k per day using only $10k of my futures account.
In addition, I'm really close to having my website redesigned and functioning for active investors...at least the concept for it is complete. The focus will be trading the "quadfolio" (SPY, GLD, FXE and USO) in both longer and shorter time frames. The one sticking point is that I am trying to make a "movie" that explains the Steelhedge Trend Indicator. It may take me sometime until next week to finish this project, as I have other commitments. Though this media project will be short my goal is to make the concept of this style of trend trading more understandable. I'd like the website done by next week... realistically it will be longer than that. BUT if there are new trading signals on the SPY, FXE, GLD or USO I will post them there.
A google search of "steelhedge" or "steelhedge trend trading" and you should find me.
I'm back to twittering real time trades on the futs. Hopefully this process can be sustained. Been doing very well here. About $1k per day using only $10k of my futures account.
In addition, I'm really close to having my website redesigned and functioning for active investors...at least the concept for it is complete. The focus will be trading the "quadfolio" (SPY, GLD, FXE and USO) in both longer and shorter time frames. The one sticking point is that I am trying to make a "movie" that explains the Steelhedge Trend Indicator. It may take me sometime until next week to finish this project, as I have other commitments. Though this media project will be short my goal is to make the concept of this style of trend trading more understandable. I'd like the website done by next week... realistically it will be longer than that. BUT if there are new trading signals on the SPY, FXE, GLD or USO I will post them there.
A google search of "steelhedge" or "steelhedge trend trading" and you should find me.
Mark Davis
Footballguy
GOLD getting mauled today.
David Dodds
Administrator
OK, I officially suck. I am glad I did not get very deep in this market (just had invested about 24K). I liquidated everything when the NASDAQ dropped greater than 1% this morning. I lost money on every thing I owned (about $2800 total loss which sucked). Everything seems pretty cheap right now (CENX, PRGN, SBLK, FEED, FCG), but I am going to do a wait and see here. This could be the start of a HUGE market correction in my opinion.
The Ref
Footballguy
I woldn't beat yourself up over it - you got back into the game at the wrong time. Honestly, I see this as a good thing as far as a trade goes. I can see the market correcting and the USD geting stronger in the process. The thing is the fundimentals of the USD are SO BAD right now that even though everyone may be running out of the market and buying dollars for saftey - at some point everyone is going to stop any say "wait a minute" - I have all Dollars and Bonds and I'm exposed to the most fundimentaly flawed currancy in the world (outside of Zimbabwe).Throw in another round of stimulus and the USD could slide right back down and send the market up. If you think CENX, PRGN, SBLK, FEED, FCG are good now - just wait till you can buy them for 10% less.Of course - the market may not be in correciton and I'll be the guy who sold into a fake market dip. But I guess we shall see.
SkyRattlers
Anti-aliai
I hope nobody was invested in Garmin <31.57 -6.21 (-16.44%)> or Tom Tom <8.11 -2.13 (-20.84%)>
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Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
Tell me about it.
Das Boot
Footballguy
Just picked up 800 PRGN for 4.02The order filled almost faster than I could click submit on the order
Das Boot
Footballguy
Didn't get filled at 1.52Bottomfishing for some shares at 1.52 todayMy fear is that the FDA rejection news may be coming.But HEB has way more than 9 lives and is a perennial P&D, hopefully this is the low end of the latest Dump.
Who knows, could be a good thing.We'll see what tomorrow brings for HEB.Maybe that market correction I figured would happen any day now for the last 4 months is finally occuring. Been on the sidelines missing out on the runup.
Except of course on the HEB shares I still own that continue to gradually sink. I should have unloaded them back when it popped above $2 for one day but I wasn't paying attention.
Except of course on the HEB shares I still own that continue to gradually sink. I should have unloaded them back when it popped above $2 for one day but I wasn't paying attention.
David Dodds
Administrator
I got 3,000 shares at this price too today as well. It might go lower, but we KNOW it's going higher
Alias
Footballguy
4-week updateDow 9,762.69 (+50.41)S&P 500 1,042.63 (-14.45)Nasdaq 2,059.61 (-62.81)Funny you should mention that; I just rebalanced my 401k, going to keep it like this until next year:80% Money Market10% Overseas10% OTC PortfolioETA (so I can look back and compare):9,712.28 Dow1,057.08 S&P 5002,122.42 NasdaqThinking I'm going to dabble in EEV soon
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
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