Lord of Football
Footballguy
Bought 3350 shares at 5.95
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
David Dodds
Administrator
I think this is a very safe bet from where I sit. The Baltic Dry Index continues to increase daily which means higher fares for these ships too. I agree that EXM has been pulled out down from Drys, but if Drys was to go under I think the survivors should all do better. EXM is a very well run company. I am likely adding to my shares here soon. Today feels like a day though where the market is going to tank horribly at the end of the day (started down, rebounded, but showing no real strength)
Lord of Football
Footballguy
Thanks for the input. Yeah I am willing to wait a little on this one, I really like this company.David Dodds said:
David Dodds
Administrator
Out of my entire UYG at 3.25 for a loss. I just do not want to own financial stocks at this time. It could be a goldmine sector, but I think I would rather hold EXM (dry shipping) and oil related stocks in this market. Was happy to see the bounce to 3.25 from where it sat this morning.
David Dodds
Administrator
added 10,000 DXO at 2.47 (I will just wait this out if I need to). Average cost of 15,000 shares now at $2.53
Lost $1,260 on UYG (14 cents a share). Done messing with the financials.
Will add to EXM before day's end (just watching it right now).
Lost $1,260 on UYG (14 cents a share). Done messing with the financials.
Will add to EXM before day's end (just watching it right now).
David Dodds
Administrator
Easy money in my opinion right now with DXO at 2.45 (It is off a whopping 8.45% for today) despite USO and OIL down less than 1%.
David Dodds
Administrator
I have a limit order of another 10,000 DXO at 2.42 if it gets there
General Malaise
Footballguy
I'm considering another reload too...Getting murdered today.
David Dodds
Administrator
OIL (+0.51%)
USO (+0.89%)
UCO (+1.45%)
yet DXO (2x leveraged) = -7.46%
get in people before it's too late
USO (+0.89%)
UCO (+1.45%)
yet DXO (2x leveraged) = -7.46%
get in people before it's too late
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Limit order placed for DXO at $2.46.
Changed to $2.48.
Changed to $2.48.
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David Dodds
Administrator
Plus DXO trades against the June contract (which is when gas/oil costs are usually near their peak)
General Malaise
Footballguy
Adding another 2,500 at 2.48
David Dodds
Administrator
That's the feeling I have too. But being in oil feels safe here.
Random
Footballguy
GLD getting pounded in the ### today. Despite that I think we see $100 by the end of the month.
David Dodds
Administrator
got 10,000 more DXO at 2.42......I plan on waiting this out if need be.
Average cost on my 25,000 shares = $2.49. Target sell price set at 2.59 for a $2,500 profit.
Average cost on my 25,000 shares = $2.49. Target sell price set at 2.59 for a $2,500 profit.
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The Sniper
Footballguy
I concur with everyone else's comments on this looking like a big negative day. Just stuck my head out and bought some SDS (2x short S&P). This sucker is like crack cocaine.
David Dodds
Administrator
OIL trading at $18.77 (inches from 52 week low). Not 2x leveraged, but this is dirt cheap.
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Keerock
Footballguy
Welcome to reason #128,394 I don't trade for a living anymore.
David Dodds
Administrator
For those that jumped on oil stocks yesterday, We should be in for a nice opening:
----------------------------------
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose in New York on speculation that OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, cut its output in January to avoid a supply glut and bolster prices.
Production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries averaged 28.565 million barrels a day last month, down 3.5 percent from December, according to a Bloomberg News survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. A government report yesterday showed U.S. consumer spending fell in December for a record sixth consecutive month, cutting fuel consumption.
“The OPEC cuts have been a factor that has sustained prices,” said Tetsu Emori, a fund manager with Astmax Ltd. in Tokyo. “Global demand is getting smaller and that’s running fast against the pace of the production cuts.”
Crude oil for March delivery gained as much as 63 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $40.71 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $40.53 a barrel at 1:47 p.m. Singapore time.
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Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose in New York on speculation that OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, cut its output in January to avoid a supply glut and bolster prices.
Production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries averaged 28.565 million barrels a day last month, down 3.5 percent from December, according to a Bloomberg News survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. A government report yesterday showed U.S. consumer spending fell in December for a record sixth consecutive month, cutting fuel consumption.
“The OPEC cuts have been a factor that has sustained prices,” said Tetsu Emori, a fund manager with Astmax Ltd. in Tokyo. “Global demand is getting smaller and that’s running fast against the pace of the production cuts.”
Crude oil for March delivery gained as much as 63 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $40.71 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $40.53 a barrel at 1:47 p.m. Singapore time.
Keerock
Footballguy
David Dodds
Administrator
and then of course oil opens lower...lol. Shipping stocks are up nicely here.
David Dodds
Administrator
yes I think that's the shark move here. I am bummed I did not add any shares at the close yesterday. Had planned too and then got distracted before I noticed that the market was closed. DRYS renegotiated their debt which means they should survive. EXM had about a 10% short position yesterday which is just nuts in my opinion (Drys had as much as 22% short). I think this huge bounceback is due to some people forced to cover these short positions.
David Dodds
Administrator
Just a heads up for you DXO investors here. This tracks to the July 09 futures contract.
July 09 Crude Contract
This is now trading at $49.10. Seeing how July is when people take vacations (and is historically the peak demand season), I think this is way too low. It's possible it could go a bit lower tomorrow with a terrible inventory report on Wednesday, but it seems like just about any news at all (fighting, war, China buying oil, any positive economic news, etc and this will move upwards quickly). When the Gaza conflict started, short term oil jumped to $50. And the out months each raised about $2-3/month.
If this drops to $2.42 again today, I plan on adding another 10,000 shares. I just don't see a scenario where this does not pop back up sometime very soon.
July 09 Crude Contract
This is now trading at $49.10. Seeing how July is when people take vacations (and is historically the peak demand season), I think this is way too low. It's possible it could go a bit lower tomorrow with a terrible inventory report on Wednesday, but it seems like just about any news at all (fighting, war, China buying oil, any positive economic news, etc and this will move upwards quickly). When the Gaza conflict started, short term oil jumped to $50. And the out months each raised about $2-3/month.
If this drops to $2.42 again today, I plan on adding another 10,000 shares. I just don't see a scenario where this does not pop back up sometime very soon.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
DXO keeps heading lower and lower and lower. It doesn't seem to have any support at any level. This is interesting as DXO isn't following USO or OIL very well.Any thoughts on why?
* Full Disclosure: I have 150 shares at $2.65 average cost.
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David Dodds
Administrator
DXO tracks to the July contract. USO tracks to combined contracts (mostly March/April I believe). OIL tracks closer to Brent Oil (UK). UCO tracks to short-term oil (March contract). All oil is down right now (all seem too cheap to me). Reason oil is dropping is demand is off. So despite OPEC cuts, inventories continue to rise. I suspect though that trend is starting to change. Last month none of the big oil companies loaded oil onto tankers as the contango had flattened aming it way riskier to buy and hold. All it takes is any sort of trigger (conflict, good economic news, inventories falling, OPEC cuts affecting supply, etc) at all and these prices will jump. There is MAJOR resistance at crude oil below $40/barrel and that's where we are at right now.
So, If you are in at 2.42 where are you getting out at?
David Dodds
Administrator
My sell point will be determined by what I see in the inventory report. If it's average, my sell point will likely be low (2.55 range). If it shows that inventories are dropping (or increased less than analysts expected), then I will hold to at least the 2.60-2.65 range. If it's an outstanding report, I will ride this until Friday and then dump.
David Dodds
Administrator
Looks like this is just a wait and see day as all the oil stocks are trading within thin margins. (DXO low = 2.43, high = 2.47).
David Dodds
Administrator
Added another 10,000 shares of DXO at $2.42......The good news is short term oil is all up right now (USO, OIL, UCO)....DXO on the other hand sits at $2.44....
David Dodds
Administrator
ok 35,000 shares is my limit here...lol
average cost = 2.467....come on rally monkey!
average cost = 2.467....come on rally monkey!
Sand
Footballguy
David Dodds
Administrator
I think you are super safe at these levels. I am super shuked at DXO right now.OIL (+1.38%)
USO (+1.48%)
UCO (+2.25%) - 2X
DXO (-1.61%) - 2X
and the shorts are both down too:
DTO (-2.87%) - 2X
SCO (-2.61%) - 2X
DXO is the one anomaly. And it was yesterday as well. I sense a big rally on good news since it has pushed back way too far.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
This is what I was talking about DD. It seems like investors are fleeing DXO for reasons other than the market. Is there something fishy going on with the fund managers or something that we're not aware of?
David Dodds
Administrator
actually it's short term oil contracts that are up (March/April), but June and July contracts are down. It makes very little sense to me at all. It's a flattening of the contango. To me the June/July numbers look way better, but I guess it's all perspective.On a sour note, this article has me a little jittery for the morning:
API Oil Inventory Report
If this is confirmed by the EIA report, I could be in for a horrible blood bath tomorrow. Well I guess I could always add to my 35,000 shares...lol
Sack Boy
Footballguy
I already told you. ETFs are scams.
Sand
Footballguy
Fixed.
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David Dodds
Administrator
The Baltic Exchange up 14.63%
Daily Summary of Baltic Exchange Dry Indices
4 February 2009
Baltic Exchange Dry Index TM 1316 (UP 168)
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index TM 2380 (UP 287)
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index TM 1000 (UP 119)
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index TM 681 (UP 125)
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index TM 353 (UP 33)
The entire shipping industry is way up in the Pre-Market. EXM looks like it will open up about 10%. The BDI continues to rise (I think it's 9 straight days). These shipping stocks are still way under-priced in my opinion. Although I will be tempted to sell here, I think some of this crazy shorting action on DRYS and to a lesser extent EXM may be forced to cover today. I am in for the ride.
Note: Someone posted on the DRYS message area that the 1 day percent move on the BDI is the highest in 24 years.
Daily Summary of Baltic Exchange Dry Indices
4 February 2009
Baltic Exchange Dry Index TM 1316 (UP 168)
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index TM 2380 (UP 287)
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index TM 1000 (UP 119)
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index TM 681 (UP 125)
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index TM 353 (UP 33)
The entire shipping industry is way up in the Pre-Market. EXM looks like it will open up about 10%. The BDI continues to rise (I think it's 9 straight days). These shipping stocks are still way under-priced in my opinion. Although I will be tempted to sell here, I think some of this crazy shorting action on DRYS and to a lesser extent EXM may be forced to cover today. I am in for the ride.
Note: Someone posted on the DRYS message area that the 1 day percent move on the BDI is the highest in 24 years.
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Cromedog
Footballguy
David, it looks like we are going to get a nice bounce on EXM this morning. I was wondering what your thoughts are for holding any shares longer term. I think the prospects of this going higher are good, but with the general market in flux it is hard not to just capitalize on this now.
David Dodds
Administrator
I am holding EXM. At least until they announce they are slashing their dividend (and that might not happen). I love this company long-term and think the shipping industry has been pounded due to the economy. The BDI continues to move up though (meaning future shipments are worth more money). On May 16th of last year this stock traded at $57+. I am in for the ride back up to at least $15-20. I love this stock (and the dry shipping industry as a whole). I also love DSX who has positioned itself nicely by accumulating lots of cash. I could see them jump in and grab some of these ships that others can't afford when the economy bounces back. I would avoid DRYS (seems to be very shady management and swimming in debt)
David Dodds
Administrator
I am up finally in DXO (a little more than 3 cents a share, but when you multiply it by 35,000 shares that adds up..lol), but I am holding here. I really expect the EIA inventory report to push the ETF up starting today. And if it does not, I think I am in a safe position with OPEC meeting the middle of March. The OPEC cuts are starting to make a difference. The flattened contango means storing on tankers is out as a strategy. The oil industry has stopped all of their exotic drilling techniques. Many of the countries are bleeding because of low oil prices. Continued pressure on their economies could easily result in some squirmish between Iran, Israel, us, etc.
Oil is headed up soon in my opinion.. If not starting today, then very soon. The inventory report is going to be a big market mover in my opinion today. I am hoping I am on the right side of the equation. A bad report could send prices tumbling for at least another week. If the inventory report is horrible, I will look to add 15,000-25,000 more shares of DXO before Friday.
Oil is headed up soon in my opinion.. If not starting today, then very soon. The inventory report is going to be a big market mover in my opinion today. I am hoping I am on the right side of the equation. A bad report could send prices tumbling for at least another week. If the inventory report is horrible, I will look to add 15,000-25,000 more shares of DXO before Friday.
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David Dodds
Administrator
My EXM position is starting to look very sweet. I bought 1,000 shares at 6.74 and then proceeded to watch it drop below 6.00 the next day. I planned on buying at close and spaced it. Yesterday it opened up higher and I waited thing out. I eventually added 2,000 shares at 6.17 (one of the dips, but not near the bottom).
Average cost of my 3,000 shares = $6.36. It just hit $7.45......SWEET
Average cost of my 3,000 shares = $6.36. It just hit $7.45......SWEET
