Lord of Football
Footballguy
Yeah, I'm in for 3350 shares at 5.95 a share....I think I'm going to have to take this profit
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
David Dodds
Administrator
Don't sell them all. I am telling you right now that this stock has some serious legs. It's a great company in a sector that is showing some life. I too will likely lessen my position slightly, but this thing is going to $12-15 and I think soon.
Cromedog
Footballguy
I'm with you for 2,000 shares...great call on your part. Let's just hope that your $15-20 prediction pans out.
Lord of Football
Footballguy
Ok...I'm with you on this.
David Dodds
Administrator
Happy Birthday. Very nice few day reward going here. I should have had shares that low too as I knew the beat down was completely unjustified and 100% tied to DRYS looking like they could go bankrupt. The cool thing about EXM, DSX and DRYS is that they are all Greek companies. And the Greeks treat this industry as one of their most important (think Auto industry in the US) so no way will they let their companies lose this space in my opinion. I think the Greeks control about 50% of the space.Lord of Football said:
Lord of Football
Footballguy
Sold 1,350 @ 7.50 / share
Profit = $2,092.50
Still holding 2,00 shares at cost basis of 5.95 per Dodds (the man)
Profit = $2,092.50
Still holding 2,00 shares at cost basis of 5.95 per Dodds (the man)
David Dodds
Administrator
never wrong taking nice profits. Great job.
David Dodds
Administrator
I sold 1,000 EXM at $7.51
Profit = 1.15 x 1000 = $1,150
Profit = 1.15 x 1000 = $1,150
David Dodds
Administrator
DXO now at $2.52....come on rally monkey (5+ cents per share x 35,000 shares)
David Dodds
Administrator
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/090204/020409_oil.html?.v=3
In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose 7.2 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 30. Analysts were looking for an increase of 2.9 million barrels of crude oil, according to a consensus estimate of industry analysts surveyed by Platts, a global energy information provider.
This report scared me. I sold 20,000 shares of DXO at 2.55
Profit of 8.3 cents per share x 20,000 = $1,660. Still holding 15,000 shares. I think oil drops soon and I will reposition myself in a bit lower (That's the plan anyway).
In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose 7.2 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 30. Analysts were looking for an increase of 2.9 million barrels of crude oil, according to a consensus estimate of industry analysts surveyed by Platts, a global energy information provider.
This report scared me. I sold 20,000 shares of DXO at 2.55
Profit of 8.3 cents per share x 20,000 = $1,660. Still holding 15,000 shares. I think oil drops soon and I will reposition myself in a bit lower (That's the plan anyway).
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David Dodds
Administrator
Here is the highlights of the EIA report. The report is pretty bad in my opinion since stockpiles are continuing to increase despite OPEC's big cut. I think oil heads downward a bit once this news gets circulated more widely. I may dump my last 15,000 shares too and just look to reenter lower.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petrole...nt/txt/wpsr.txt
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petrole...nt/txt/wpsr.txt
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David Dodds
Administrator
and what hopefully will not be a fatal move here, but I am OUT of the last 15,000 DXO at 2.54
Profit = 7.3 cents x 15,000 = $1,095 profit.
Profit = 7.3 cents x 15,000 = $1,095 profit.
David Dodds
Administrator
Just sold another 1,000 EXM at 7.72
Profit = 1.36 per share x 1,000 shares = $1,360
Although I love this company longterm, this one day gain is just too juicy for me. Still holding 1,000 shares. I have a limit set at $8.06
Profit = 1.36 per share x 1,000 shares = $1,360
Although I love this company longterm, this one day gain is just too juicy for me. Still holding 1,000 shares. I have a limit set at $8.06
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Gonna sell 66% of my position in EXM today. Hopefully I can get it up to around $7.75.
FavreCo
Footballguy
I wouldn't think DXO is going very far until demand picks up.
David Dodds
Administrator
Yes I agree. We should see it in the stockpile reports first which always makes Wednesdays a tad crazy. OPEC cut a million barrels a day, yet our stockpiles still raised by 7.2 million barrels. And this despite operating at just 83.5 percent of refinery operating capacity. I do think this report will pressure OPEC to make another cut in March. The window is closing on cheap oil though. Everyone seems to know/feel it too, but I do still expect crude prices to drop a tad in the very short term before heading higher.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Dodds, I've read most of the thread, but it's hard to keep up. Question - are you still holding any GKK, and if so, what are you in it for? GKK intrigues me. They are now down to about 1.13
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David Dodds
Administrator
I will do that tonight and keep that up going forward. Had a very nice day today. I am tempted to buy in to Bank of America at 4.91 here, but it's likely a sucker bet. Lots of money betting on this company going the way of Lehman brothers. And eventually the shorts had their way. I probably will just keep watching this here.
FavreCo
Footballguy
No doubt. An interesting time this is. Cheap oil will help the economy to get off the canvas. When the economy starts moving again, higher oil prices will become a problem again. DXO among others will be the solution for those with $ to buy it. Supplement your higher gas bill with DXO profits.
David Dodds
Administrator
Here we go....news of the inventories are strating to sink in. DXO and other oil stocks heading down now.
David Dodds
Administrator
I dumped everything I bought in my first post as I hated managing a bunch of sectors I did not know anything about it. Right now I am keeping a pulse on the oil, shipping and financial sectors only. I just own EXM this second, but will soon be in oil related stocks once we see some price correction to reflect the latest inventory report.
David Dodds
Administrator
The major indices continue drifing downward, causing the Dow to slip into the red. Despite the broad-based descent, dry bulk shippers continue to perform with excellent gains. The group's advance comes as the Baltic Dry Index moves higher for the twelfth straight session.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Out of 66% of my stake in EXM.
Bought: 5.81, Sold: 7.65 = 1.84/share or 32% ROI in 2 days. Nice pick DD.
Sure feels like gambling to me...
I think I'm gonna roll the $ into USO.
Bought: 5.81, Sold: 7.65 = 1.84/share or 32% ROI in 2 days. Nice pick DD.
Sure feels like gambling to me...
I think I'm gonna roll the $ into USO.
Lord of Football
Footballguy
Just sold 1,000 of EXM at 7.80...I want to hold onto the last 1,000.
7.80 - 5.95 * 1,000 = $1,850
Still have 1,000 left. This turned out to be a really good one.
7.80 - 5.95 * 1,000 = $1,850
Still have 1,000 left. This turned out to be a really good one.
David Dodds
Administrator
I just sold my last 1,000 EXM at 7.91. Profit = $1,550. I am going to watch this closely over the next few days. I might regret getting out here, but like locking in a 25% daily move here. I think we see some pullback tomorrow as this is a HUGE over-correction.
David Dodds
Administrator
wow I feel so naked as I have an entire cash position this second. I should be in oil tomorrow though. DXO is over-valued though so likely playing UCO, USO or OIL unless DXO tanks in the after-market
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Lord of Football
Footballguy
I'm out of my last 1,000...total profit on EXM trade $5,790!!!Ok..on to the next conquest. Thanks again David.
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David Dodds
Administrator
Yes EXM was huge for all of us today. I think it will bounce down lower tomorrow or at least the first day the NASDAQ is down. The real question right now concerning EXM is will they pay their dividend? I personally hope they cut it (or zero it) as this company made a nice move this year to push out a ship (at a huge savings if they buy next year). So if they cut their dividend, I think they will be in a lot better position financially for years to come. I also love Diana Shipping (DSX) in this space as they are hoarding cash. If the BDI continues to run up, DSX is in position to get more ships (or acquire some of these other companies) and then get these ships loaded at the higher rates.
It's funny as EXM was getting beaten down two days ago, I kept thinking....wow, this seems like such a no-brainer. Well for once it really did work out that way. I could have been even more invested in this, but I was certain that the oil inventory stockpiles would come in so much lower because of the OPEC 1 million barrel a day cuts. I would like to know the backstory here though (where do we sit in regards to tankers filled with oil? - I know Shell offloaded their supertanker that had 2 million barrels. Did a bunch more tankers offload which is distorting the US consumption rate?).
Again congrats to everyone who jumped on EXM. It really is about as good as it gets in the stock market (+30% while holding for two days for some of you).
It's funny as EXM was getting beaten down two days ago, I kept thinking....wow, this seems like such a no-brainer. Well for once it really did work out that way. I could have been even more invested in this, but I was certain that the oil inventory stockpiles would come in so much lower because of the OPEC 1 million barrel a day cuts. I would like to know the backstory here though (where do we sit in regards to tankers filled with oil? - I know Shell offloaded their supertanker that had 2 million barrels. Did a bunch more tankers offload which is distorting the US consumption rate?).
Again congrats to everyone who jumped on EXM. It really is about as good as it gets in the stock market (+30% while holding for two days for some of you).
David Dodds
Administrator
The play I am considering making here is the following:
Bank of America (BAC) - Over the last month, this dog has dropped 67.4% and currently trades at $4.70/share. It's volume was 574 million shares today. The question is this the bottom or not? I do think this stock will rebound a good 15-25% from it's bottom. Just locating the bottom might be the key here.
But with Tarp II likely getting settled next week, I think BAC could see this bounce hit soon. I personally hate the financial sector right now, but I probably will dabble with a few thousand shares here tomorrow provided it stays below $5/share.
I think the fears of BAC getting nationalized or allowed to collapse are overblown. The shorts are driving this thing into the ground though. The question is will the big fund managers start buying enough to put the pressure to have the shorts cover. It's all about finding the bottom here folks. Personally it feels like we are very close to it right now.
Bank of America (BAC) - Over the last month, this dog has dropped 67.4% and currently trades at $4.70/share. It's volume was 574 million shares today. The question is this the bottom or not? I do think this stock will rebound a good 15-25% from it's bottom. Just locating the bottom might be the key here.
But with Tarp II likely getting settled next week, I think BAC could see this bounce hit soon. I personally hate the financial sector right now, but I probably will dabble with a few thousand shares here tomorrow provided it stays below $5/share.
I think the fears of BAC getting nationalized or allowed to collapse are overblown. The shorts are driving this thing into the ground though. The question is will the big fund managers start buying enough to put the pressure to have the shorts cover. It's all about finding the bottom here folks. Personally it feels like we are very close to it right now.
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A lot change in the last two days?
pack100
Footballguy
Damn i wish i had all your cash flow. I bought 150 at 5.95. I am very excited to see the gains today. I am up 300 ish. It is at 8.18. I think I might get out now. I too am waiting for DXO to drop some more and then sell when it jumps up. It worked well last time. Keep them coming.
David Dodds
Administrator
No I still do not want to own them, but it's hard not to notice how much some of these companies have been beaten down.BR33ZE said:
David Dodds
Administrator
I suspect the market is going to be crazy like this all year where everything hinges on a news item or two and that causes major valuation changes. Plus I think this market has super low oil prices that is just waiting for something to cause it to spike. So yes if I were to take a guess, I would say this market will likely be crazy for some time.Harris said:
David Dodds
Administrator
Congrats pack. You had more patience than the rest of us and got the biggest percent reward with it. I think we will see DXO drop tomorrow. And if not, UCO, USO and OIL are all priced very low so I think yopu can likely daytrade those for some quick gains. I also will be watching Bank of America closely, but not sure I will pull the trigger or not. I may wait until Monday's opening (assuming TARP II will get settled next week sometime)
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Why try to time it? If you're confident, just buy it and hold it for a while.
David Dodds
Administrator
even if you can make more jumping in and out?
The Z Machine
Footballguy
This is exactly what I'm doing with positions in Chevron ($71.20/share), BP ($42.50/share), Repsol ($17.90/share), and PetroChina ($74.50) for exposure to both the upstream and downstream profit centers. I'm splitting that 50/50 with buys in long oil ETFs like DXO ($2.65/share), OIL ($19.30/share), and USO ($28.50/share).I'm planning on riding this out until summer. Feel free to bump this post on June 30.The EXM trade was a nice little profit taking venture. Dodds hit the nail on the head with this pick, and honestly I'm surprised that it's performed as it has today. There aren't many chances to get daily gains of over 30%.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I don't have enough cash or time to day trade. The commissions would destroy the profit for me. My bankroll investment monies for direct stock purchase is only $3k.
David Dodds
Administrator
OK I talked myself out of BAC. The shorts just might push this one over the cliff.
pack100
Footballguy
Not sure if it was patience. I had a couple of minutes at lunch to check but did not pull the trigger and I have been swamped at work. This time it appears to have worked in my favor. I am scared to death of the financials at this time.
David Dodds
Administrator
Year to date, including commissions I am +$13,573 (I will start tracking this with the last post of the day's trades as well).
I made a few horrible mistakes so far in this whole process:
1. I bought a bunch of crappy companies to start this thing and proceeded to lose over $8K just bailing on most of them. Lessons learned: Don't pick stocks based on the Google Screener tells you. Don't buy them all on the same day. Do a ton more research.
2. I super-leveraged myself with SCO (Oil short) when it was dropping fast with apparently no news...Well the news was increased aggresssion in Pakiston (we lobbed some missiles). I was afraid to hold over the weekend and lost some $17K in that one transaction. If I hold two more business days, I make $24K (a $41K swing). Lessons learned: Many things can make oil go higher. Very few can make it drop. Although the oil shorts can make money, I don;t plan on being on the wrong side of oil very often. Being leveraged on margin betting against oil when you don't know why it's moving north quickly is beyond stupid. I now will wait some time between huge purchases to make sure I better understand the news around the market move.
3. Struggled making money with the financial leveraged positions even though my hunches were correct with the markets. Things like FAS and UYG have been brutal because BAC has been on a death spiral and both indexes are leveraged heavily to it. Lesson learned: Buy individual financial stocks and set stop limits when you purchase due to the volaitility.
But all told, even with the HUGE mistakes, I am pleased where I am with all of this. I have none of the first post stocks at all. In fact I have an entire cash position as I type this. My new strategy looks like this:
1. Monitor oil stocks extremely close. Every day I plan on making a determination whether I think oil will increase or decrease. Although I am timing the market with respect to these purchases, I will not be afraid to HOLD long oil over the weekends, etc as I believe we will see $55-60/barrel in the very near future (by July). I doubt I will play the oil shorts much even when I expect them to do well. If I do, I will buy and create stop limits on the purchases so the hard lesson learned does not happen again. At any given time I expect to have as much as $125K invested in long-term oil. I think it's that much of a sure thing.
2. Monitor the dry shipping industry closely. I like the prospects here for nice long-term growth. This includes DSX, PRGN, EXM. I will look for an opportunity to get back in the market with these stocks (huge runup today and profit taking seemed wise). I expect these stocks to increase 70-100% within the next 4 months. My general position will be long, but I plan to do a lot of manuevering in and out to accumulate strong positions cheaply.
3. Keep an eye on the financial sector. I think there will be big movement in this area, but if I dabble I plan to do so with stop limits like short oil above. Get in and get out with clear daytrading objectives. I think the financial ETFs bleed too much money though so if I do purchase things in the financial sector, it will likely be Bank of America or Wells Fargo (two entities I know something about). I like Wells long-term. I think BAC is due for a huge correction once it finds it's bottom. I am just not exactly sure where that is.
Hope people have enjoyed this thread up until now. It's been fun documenting this as I go (well except for when I was taking a bloodbath with the SCO purchases). I appreciate the advice/comments, etc as this thing moves forward.
I made a few horrible mistakes so far in this whole process:
1. I bought a bunch of crappy companies to start this thing and proceeded to lose over $8K just bailing on most of them. Lessons learned: Don't pick stocks based on the Google Screener tells you. Don't buy them all on the same day. Do a ton more research.
2. I super-leveraged myself with SCO (Oil short) when it was dropping fast with apparently no news...Well the news was increased aggresssion in Pakiston (we lobbed some missiles). I was afraid to hold over the weekend and lost some $17K in that one transaction. If I hold two more business days, I make $24K (a $41K swing). Lessons learned: Many things can make oil go higher. Very few can make it drop. Although the oil shorts can make money, I don;t plan on being on the wrong side of oil very often. Being leveraged on margin betting against oil when you don't know why it's moving north quickly is beyond stupid. I now will wait some time between huge purchases to make sure I better understand the news around the market move.
3. Struggled making money with the financial leveraged positions even though my hunches were correct with the markets. Things like FAS and UYG have been brutal because BAC has been on a death spiral and both indexes are leveraged heavily to it. Lesson learned: Buy individual financial stocks and set stop limits when you purchase due to the volaitility.
But all told, even with the HUGE mistakes, I am pleased where I am with all of this. I have none of the first post stocks at all. In fact I have an entire cash position as I type this. My new strategy looks like this:
1. Monitor oil stocks extremely close. Every day I plan on making a determination whether I think oil will increase or decrease. Although I am timing the market with respect to these purchases, I will not be afraid to HOLD long oil over the weekends, etc as I believe we will see $55-60/barrel in the very near future (by July). I doubt I will play the oil shorts much even when I expect them to do well. If I do, I will buy and create stop limits on the purchases so the hard lesson learned does not happen again. At any given time I expect to have as much as $125K invested in long-term oil. I think it's that much of a sure thing.
2. Monitor the dry shipping industry closely. I like the prospects here for nice long-term growth. This includes DSX, PRGN, EXM. I will look for an opportunity to get back in the market with these stocks (huge runup today and profit taking seemed wise). I expect these stocks to increase 70-100% within the next 4 months. My general position will be long, but I plan to do a lot of manuevering in and out to accumulate strong positions cheaply.
3. Keep an eye on the financial sector. I think there will be big movement in this area, but if I dabble I plan to do so with stop limits like short oil above. Get in and get out with clear daytrading objectives. I think the financial ETFs bleed too much money though so if I do purchase things in the financial sector, it will likely be Bank of America or Wells Fargo (two entities I know something about). I like Wells long-term. I think BAC is due for a huge correction once it finds it's bottom. I am just not exactly sure where that is.
Hope people have enjoyed this thread up until now. It's been fun documenting this as I go (well except for when I was taking a bloodbath with the SCO purchases). I appreciate the advice/comments, etc as this thing moves forward.
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Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Well, what I see here is someone that is talking themself into and out of positions given scant information. You've made many comments about how you like something long term, so why subject it to this ADD trading style? It's very difficult to time things, and you've already lost in many of these positions trying to time things out just right. I agree that there are some momentum plays out there that look ripe occasionally, but this seems to be your only trading style. Just my opinion.
David Dodds
Administrator
You could be right. This market just seems extremely jittery to me, especially for stocks and oil. I have no problem making some small profits and looking again for new spots. I also like closing to cash positions where I can because the markets have shown huge movement (both up and down) in the after and pre-markets. I am sure a strong case can be made for buying and holding. Outside of two brutal mistakes though, I feel confident I can jump in (cost average down if necessary) and keep squeezing a lot of small gains to have a productive run. This first month has been all over the place. I am hoping my moves make a little more sense to those following along going forward.
Sack Boy
Footballguy
You locked in a $17K loss for no good reason?
David Dodds
Administrator
At the time it seemed smart as we were lobbing missiles into Pakistan. If we went to war over the weekend over this, I stood to lose a lot more money for sure by holding. I agree in hindsight it was a rash decision. But with the market closing on a Friday I had to make a gut call to sell or hold over the weekend. Sometimes you have to cut bait and look to fight another day. As it turned out the Pakistan stuff blew over and the reasons I was short in the first place played out. So yes this mistake sucked real bad for me. Just not sure if I would play it any different unless I just never followed the news.You locked in a $17K loss for no good reason?
