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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

David Dodds said:
Sack Boy said:
David Dodds said:
I made a few horrible mistakes so far in this whole process:

2. I super-leveraged myself with SCO (Oil short) when it was dropping fast with apparently no news...Well the news was increased aggresssion in Pakiston (we lobbed some missiles). I was afraid to hold over the weekend and lost some $17K in that one transaction. If I hold two more business days, I make $24K (a $41K swing). Lessons learned: Many things can make oil go higher. Very few can make it drop. Although the oil shorts can make money, I don;t plan on being on the wrong side of oil very often. Being leveraged on margin betting against oil when you don't know why it's moving north quickly is beyond stupid. I now will wait some time between huge purchases to make sure I better understand the news around the market move.
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You locked in a $17K loss for no good reason? :shrug:
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At the time it seemed smart as we were lobbing missiles into Pakistan. If we went to war over the weekend over this, I stood to lose a lot more money for sure by holding. I agree in hindsight it was a rash decision. But with the market closing on a Friday I had to make a gut call to sell or hold over the weekend. Sometimes you have to cut bait and look to fight another day. As it turned out the Pakistan stuff blew over and the reasons I was short in the first place played out. So yes this mistake sucked real bad for me. Just not sure if I would play it any different unless I just never followed the news.
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Right. You were jumpier than a Mexican jumping bean.
 
David Dodds said:
Mr. Pickles said:
David Dodds said:
Mr. Pickles said:
Why try to time it? If you're confident, just buy it and hold it for a while.
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even if you can make more jumping in and out?
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Well, what I see here is someone that is talking themself into and out of positions given scant information. You've made many comments about how you like something long term, so why subject it to this ADD trading style? It's very difficult to time things, and you've already lost in many of these positions trying to time things out just right. I agree that there are some momentum plays out there that look ripe occasionally, but this seems to be your only trading style. Just my opinion.
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You could be right. This market just seems extremely jittery to me, especially for stocks and oil. I have no problem making some small profits and looking again for new spots. I also like closing to cash positions where I can because the markets have shown huge movement (both up and down) in the after and pre-markets. I am sure a strong case can be made for buying and holding. Outside of two brutal mistakes though, I feel confident I can jump in (cost average down if necessary) and keep squeezing a lot of small gains to have a productive run. This first month has been all over the place. I am hoping my moves make a little more sense to those following along going forward.
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It's simply the difference between day trading and investing. Day trading is really just gambling where you use all of the information and news at hand. You generally have much larger positions in a particular stock than you would if in a normal investment portfolio and trades are done on an extremely short term basis. Investing is done over the long haul and you would have a diverse portolio spread among several different sectors.What Dodds and most are doing here, should not be confused with "investing".
 
If Dodds had put his $250K in GLD the day he started this thread he'd be up $20+K. Just sayin.

eta: Nevertheless this is entertaining and I wish him (and the others) the best of luck!

 
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Random said:
If Dodds had put his $250K in GLD the day he started this thread he'd be up $20+K. Just sayin.eta: Nevertheless this is entertaining and I wish him (and the others) the best of luck!
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I like PM's in general too, but this post would carry more weight if you had suggested to DD to put $250k in GLD a month ago. EXM appreciated 13.35% YTD.
 
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Alias said:
Random said:
If Dodds had put his $250K in GLD the day he started this thread he'd be up $20+K. Just sayin.

eta: Nevertheless this is entertaining and I wish him (and the others) the best of luck!
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I like PM's in general too, but this post would carry more weight if you had suggested to DD to put $250k in GLD a month ago. EXM appreciated 13.35% YTD.
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Search my username. While I didn't recommend it specifically to Dodds, I've been very bullish on PM's since early Dec.link to one (maybe my first) GLD post

 
I am going to take positions this morning in :

Paragon Shipping (PRGN)

OIL

USO

UCO

Pre-Market indicator for the NASDAQ is down. I may buy the oil stuff early, but watching to see if the shipping stocks start to retreat (they usually do when the NASDAQ drops)

 
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Shipping pulling back with NASDAQ down as expected. DSX looking like it could be a good deal today too. Just going to watch for a bit here. Financials are getting hammered (FAS now under 8.00).

 
"I think the financial ETFs bleed too much money though so if I do purchase things in the financial sector, it will likely be Bank of America or Wells Fargo (two entities I know something about). I like Wells long-term."

I would be careful with Wells Fargo. That one was on my watch list of securities to short. The ratings agenencies just significantly downgraded a bunch of "Alt-A's" and WFC owns a ton. Just my 2 cents.

 
Bank of America continues in it's free fall. Next week's TARP II meeting might be too late. The shorts have spoken and they are determined to bring that company to zero (this same approach killed Wamu and Wachovia among others).

 
David Dodds said:
Year to date, including commissions I am +$13,573 (I will start tracking this with the last post of the day's trades as well).

...

Hope people have enjoyed this thread up until now. It's been fun documenting this as I go (well except for when I was taking a bloodbath with the SCO purchases). I appreciate the advice/comments, etc as this thing moves forward.
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I'm a non-day trader who is enjoying the thread. Thanks for including the +/- and updating it each day...it's easier to get an overall view of how things are going for you, and I assume most of us are hoping you do well.It's interesting to hear your thoughts on what you're doing when you do it, and see the good choices and mistakes along the way, even if it does more closely resemble gambling than investing. But you're right in that in this market, with so many ups and downs, there's a lot of money to be made off volatility. Good luck.

 
David Dodds said:
The play I am considering making here is the following:Bank of America (BAC) - Over the last month, this dog has dropped 67.4% and currently trades at $4.70/share. It's volume was 574 million shares today. The question is this the bottom or not? I do think this stock will rebound a good 15-25% from it's bottom. Just locating the bottom might be the key here.But with Tarp II likely getting settled next week, I think BAC could see this bounce hit soon. I personally hate the financial sector right now, but I probably will dabble with a few thousand shares here tomorrow provided it stays below $5/share.I think the fears of BAC getting nationalized or allowed to collapse are overblown. The shorts are driving this thing into the ground though. The question is will the big fund managers start buying enough to put the pressure to have the shorts cover. It's all about finding the bottom here folks. Personally it feels like we are very close to it right now.
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Seeing BOA at $4 makes me want to throw up (bought a little bit at $44/share last year and haven't sold). It's unbelieveable that it could fall this far.
 
Loving MOS...

This is my largest long term hold with an average cost basis around $33. Beaten down stock... great company/sector.

 
Not thrilled with where things are right now. Oil is too high in my opinion based on the current news. I missed a huge opportunity when FAS dipped below 8 and BAC bottomed out. Also should have pulled the trigger on EXM around 7.50.

Think I am going to run some errands and be happy with my small win today. If I was forced to take a stance on something it would probably be EEV at 52.78 as I don't see this big Nasdaq rally continuing through Friday.

 
Could someone give me their opinion on some of these stocks for the long-term - say if I were to buy now and then hold for 10+ years?

MGM

LVS

CHK

BCS

STX

ATVI

GRMN

HOG

AXP

or do you think I should wait a bit longer on these stocks for them to bottom out?

 
Unwrittenlaw said:
Could someone give me their opinion on some of these stocks for the long-term - say if I were to buy now and then hold for 10+ years?MGMLVSCHKBCSSTXATVIGRMNHOG AXPor do you think I should wait a bit longer on these stocks for them to bottom out?
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If you are investing long term then do not try to time the market, just get in. You could hedge a little by investing in your portfolio of stocks by "x amount" per month. As for the ones listed, you'll have to do your own research on each, but I like these long term - MGM, CHK, GRMN, and HOG - not familiar with others enough to comment.
 
Unwrittenlaw said:
Could someone give me their opinion on some of these stocks for the long-term - say if I were to buy now and then hold for 10+ years?MGMLVSCHKBCSSTXATVIGRMNHOG AXPor do you think I should wait a bit longer on these stocks for them to bottom out?
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I don't know crap about stocks, but 10+ years seems like a long time to me.What are you looking for? Dividends? Capital appreciation? If it's the an S&P index fund might be a better bet since it will spread the risk around way more than buying individual stocks.I'm no seasoned investor, but I would think that picking individual stocks should be extremely targeted based on industry and specific projected growth (upcoming products, etc.), along with P/L and debt burden.
 
DD and others

Whats the long term (not really long term, but not day trading) oil play to avoid contango (sp?)

 
Random said:
DD and othersWhats the long term (not really long term, but not day trading) oil play to avoid contango (sp?)
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What do you mean by avoid contango? The contango is based on oil being higher each successive month. That in itself is pretty normal. Most people that talk to the oil contango talk about the giant delta between CURRENT oil and the future month. As I type this here are the crude contract prices:March - $40.99April - $45.61 May - $48.17June - $49.96July - $51.23The issue regarding these large gaps is someone can just buy current oil today and store it for likely huge profits later. People bought oil as low as $33-35/barrel and created the 80 million supertanker issue. With these recent run up prices today, one has to think these are going to get offloaded soon.Although I hate to be on the wrong side of oil, it's getting hard not to be betting against it. OPEC cut 1 million barrels a day and our inventories increased every single week in January. We are at MAX storage and are only operating at 83-84% of operating capacity. A couple weeks from now the March contract will roll to April (and people will actually have to take possession of the oil). So not sure what you mean by how is the best way to not play the contango? If you think the prices will faltten (as I do), your best play is to play the OIL shorts (SCO - bets against short term oil - March and April and DTO bets more against mid-term oil).
 
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DXO is up because July crude is now at $51+ a barrel for July delivery. If you think price is too low you should hold/buy DXO. If you think that price is too high, you should sell (or buy DTO)

I applaud everyone that hit with this (hell I had 35,000 DXO at 2.467 yesterday and wish I was cashing in at these prices), but I really do no see how the news supports these levels at all.

 
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Here is the news driving this:

Demand for fuels during the past four weeks averaged 19.5 million barrels a day, up 0.6 percent from the average a week before, the Energy Department said yesterday. “The oil market has been tagging along with stocks,” said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. “We are seeing strength in gasoline and other commodities, which is giving the market a boost.”

 
Lord of Football said:
5Rings said:
Bought BAC at 4.30 today. Anybody else like BAC?
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I'm really wishing I bought this when it dropped below $4. I be interested to hear what David is thinking about this one.
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Just what I thought before. That the short sellers are trying their best to bury this thing. But if it does not die, I suspected it would bounce significantly from the bottom (but was scare trying to buy in and find that bottom). I agree 4.00 looks like the bottom. My guess is this hovers between 4.75 and 5.00 for a bit now. I think the company is in deep trouble (just like Citigroup), but I doubt the government lets either of these banks fail. When BAC was around 4.00, FAS was around 7.8. I KNEW this was a buy and am mad at myself for staying on the sidelines there. It was right around the time I needed to take my daughter to school and by the time I got back, BAC and FAS bounced already.
 
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