When it dropped below $4 did you know that it was going to come back up?
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
David Dodds
Administrator
slightly frustrating day as I was unable to pull the trigger on what could have been some nice moves.
Today's profit = $940
Year to date profit = $14,513
I hold no positions at this time.
Today's profit = $940
Year to date profit = $14,513
I hold no positions at this time.
David Dodds
Administrator
Nobody ever knows, but there were signs that insiders were accumulating positions as well as the curve itself showed a nice U turn with HUGE volume suggesting someone with big bucks (insiders or fund managers) was buying. The rest of the financials were almost unanimously up too so it did seem like a decent play. I blinked at around 4.15, took my daughter to school and it was already climbing fast by the time I returned. I still almost jumped onboard late as it looked like it might sustain a decent climb (and could still climb in the aftermarket in my opinion), but it's hard because this company's books actually are horrible. You are essentially betting that the bank will not be taken over by the government (probably a safe bet, but who knows)
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Your last couple of points are what I was getting at. This is a horrible stock to own. There is nothing to like about either their acquisition of Merrill or Countrywide (both are huge dogs and drains on capital). The organization is a floundering mess.BUT
If you are good at predicting a bottom or good at predicting what the government will do, then by all means get in.
Otherwise, I have no idea why anyone would buy this junk.
Rearviewing missing a bottom seems like a poor mentality to me.
5Rings
Lurker
I'm a noob on the market, but this is my thinking as well.eta--all my banking in-laws are telling me to sell BAC and buy Wells, especially the ones that work at BofA
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David Dodds
Administrator
We are saying the same here. The company sucks. But I think that is factored in at these prices.I would like to think I was more than rear-viewing the bottom. I posted yesterday that I suspected this stock was nearing it's bottom and that once it found that bottom would likely bounce a great deal. I really was VERY CLOSE to get a few thousand shares today at 4.15. But at that time the curve was STRAIGHT DOWN. When the U turn happened, the volume was CRAZY HIGH. I think this was actually a pretty obvious day-trading opportunity to those watching this closely. Unfortunately I was not near my computer and missed the buy.Your last couple of points are what I was getting at. This is a horrible stock to own. There is nothing to like about either their acquisition of Merrill or Countrywide (both are huge dogs and drains on capital). The organization is a floundering mess.BUTIf you are good at predicting a bottom or good at predicting what the government will do, then by all means get in.Otherwise, I have no idea why anyone would buy this junk.Rearviewing missing a bottom seems like a poor mentality to me.
Agree.My comment was only a comment and not pointing the finger at you or anyone.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Not that I know anything, but I'm pretty convinced BofA was strong armed into buying Countrywide when the FED began dropping the discount rate. :tinfoil:
And I don't think JP Morgan really wanted Bear either....pretty sure FED 'persuaded' them into that too.
And I don't think JP Morgan really wanted Bear either....pretty sure FED 'persuaded' them into that too.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
lolHow much do you have GM? Cost?lollllzI assume it has to do with Crude being up 55 cents...What's caused it to jump? It's back up to a break-even for me at $2.65.GO DXO....GO!
General Malaise
Footballguy
10K and I don't want to disclose my unit average cost....lolHow much do you have GM? Cost?lollllzI assume it has to do with Crude being up 55 cents...What's caused it to jump? It's back up to a break-even for me at $2.65.GO DXO....GO!
(2.67)
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
dizbizzelI figured it was a ton. GLGB10K and I don't want to disclose my unit average cost....lolHow much do you have GM? Cost?lollllzI assume it has to do with Crude being up 55 cents...What's caused it to jump? It's back up to a break-even for me at $2.65.GO DXO....GO!
McBokonon
Footballguy
These insiders have been buying shares of the financials since they were in the 40's and 30's and 20's and teens and high single digits. Frankly, whether or not insiders are buying doesn't mean #### anymore.
SkyRattlers
Anti-aliai
OIL just opened the day at 18.15.....I assume everyone is going to be jumping all over this asap
SkyRattlers
Anti-aliai
OIL is at 18.40 already...
Paper Lions
Footballguy
.
David Dodds
Administrator
slept in a bit here. OIL is dirt cheap again.
I added 4,000 shares of UCO at market price (not sure what that is this second, but looks to be around 9.36-9.40.
I added 4,000 shares of UCO at market price (not sure what that is this second, but looks to be around 9.36-9.40.
David Dodds
Administrator
wow. Looks like sleeping in cost me a bit here. Unreal panic by the market there.
Mark Davis
Footballguy
I am with you on this one as well today. I have some USO and DBO through written puts. Using a small bit of cash I have to buy a few shares of UCO. If it doesn't pop it's something I'm willing to hold longer term as well.
David Dodds
Administrator
People should. It can't stay here. Yes the jobs report is horrible and is the hammer, but this all but locks in another OPEC cut too. I suspect China will be buying too. Plus now the Contango is deepening again which means people will possibly take a chance again with supertankers, etc. Huge buying opportunity here.
David Dodds
Administrator
Aaargh. Wells Fargo Trading account is screwing me here. They rejected the trade. By trading stocks the way I have been, my account has been put in some daytrading status and they scaled back my margin ability yesterday around mid-day. So despite being 100% cash and having nearly a quarter million dollars available to me, they are denying this trade because they have yet to get all the math done via their site (and because I made three moves with UCO yesterday). So it looks like I am the BIG loser here today because these prices are UNREAL good. But no way am I keeping my money in here with these rules set against my account. So I am going to take today off and hopefully all my money will be square by Monday or Tuesday. I should hopefully be back in the game with another trading company by the middle of next week. Everyone else, you should look to get into UCO, OIL today. DXO may go lower
Cromedog
Footballguy
They are still pretty good where they are at...use another acct?
Cromedog
Footballguy
In fact, UCO is now it's lower than where you were trying to get in...
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siffoin
Footballguy
With the amount of trading you do...Interactive Brokers is the way to go.I think in general, crude is making one final low...then a run up to $65-$70 by late spring. Decent potential for an overall bear market rally too.
David Dodds
Administrator
Yeah I think Wells does not like my activity at all. I have about $240K in various Wells accounts and I set this up as a margin account so I assumed this would never be an issue (With even just 2-3x margin, I should be able to trade 600K-700K worth of stocks a week). Their note to me stated I had made $2.2 million in purchases since the start of the year. That is pretty funny. They first ratcheted down my margin ability after the SCO debacle trades and I am guessing my account went into some kind of "monitor" status with them. They now have put me in "restricted" status for the next 60 days where they reject or accept every single trade. They apparently give no reason when something is rejected. It's 100% guesswork what trades they will let through or not in this status. No way will that work with what I am trying to do here.
I really hate their limited software so this is great reason to just jump to another company (and get level 2 quotes, etc). I also hate their sweep strategy with money as it constantly forces me to move stuff around.
I may try and call these guys up today and tell them to remove the restrictions now else I am going to close all my accounts with them. Not sure it will work or not though. I have to take my daughter to the doctor in a few hours so it almost seems easier to just not trade today and hopefully the money will all be straightened out by Monday/ Tuesday. Then I can mail a cashier's check to someone like Scott Trade and be up and ready to go pretty soon.
I really hate their limited software so this is great reason to just jump to another company (and get level 2 quotes, etc). I also hate their sweep strategy with money as it constantly forces me to move stuff around.
I may try and call these guys up today and tell them to remove the restrictions now else I am going to close all my accounts with them. Not sure it will work or not though. I have to take my daughter to the doctor in a few hours so it almost seems easier to just not trade today and hopefully the money will all be straightened out by Monday/ Tuesday. Then I can mail a cashier's check to someone like Scott Trade and be up and ready to go pretty soon.
David Dodds
Administrator
If I was able to bet today, I would have all my money in UCO at these prices (currently at 9.21). All it takes is news of a little conflict somewhere and this will bounce to above 11.0. I say it has greater than 50% chance to be above 10.0 before Wednesday's inventory report. This is the reason I need to get another service (one that does not limit my margin ability). I would not be afraid to have a quarter million position in oil at these prices.
David Dodds
Administrator
OK, this appears to be a restriction on me trading any UCO today since I made multiple moves with it yesterday.
I was able to purchase 1,500 shares of USO at $27.65 (would have preferred to be in UCO), but fine with this. I am still looking at getting a bunch more money at Scott Trade though
I was able to purchase 1,500 shares of USO at $27.65 (would have preferred to be in UCO), but fine with this. I am still looking at getting a bunch more money at Scott Trade though
David Dodds
Administrator
Here is what future oil contracts (per barrel) looks like right now:
March - 39.28
April - 44.52
May - 47.28
June - 48.96
July - 50.30
The gap between March and April is ridiculous in my opinion. I can't say this LOUD enough. If I were you I would get into UCO at these prices (52 week lows). Any news at all will first impact short-term oil. This has 8-10% gain written all over it before next Wednesday.
UCO (short term - March)
USO (mid term - March/April)
OIL (Brent/UK crude - midterm - March/April)
DXO (longterm - July)
March - 39.28
April - 44.52
May - 47.28
June - 48.96
July - 50.30
The gap between March and April is ridiculous in my opinion. I can't say this LOUD enough. If I were you I would get into UCO at these prices (52 week lows). Any news at all will first impact short-term oil. This has 8-10% gain written all over it before next Wednesday.
UCO (short term - March)
USO (mid term - March/April)
OIL (Brent/UK crude - midterm - March/April)
DXO (longterm - July)
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Trying to get in UCO @ 9.32 here. Gonna take some profit from my PTR position I held for the last week. It's up about 13% from where I bought it.
David Dodds
Administrator
It costs about $1.25-$1.40/barrel per month to hold oil on the Supertankers. If the March / April gap widens at all, I think you will see investors scooping up short term oil and storing it again to bank these profits. I think the outmonth prices seem about right. I think short term oil should be closer to $40.90 right now (trading at about 4% discount). Since UCO is double leverage, I think it's trading at about an 8% discount.
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General Malaise
Footballguy
Damn it, Dave....you're a drug dealer.
500 UCO @ 9.30
500 UCO @ 9.30
General Malaise
Footballguy
Interesting that SLV is advancing today while the golds are struggling....Might be adding some more SLV soon.
Cromedog
Footballguy
LOL...it is addicting!
David Dodds
Administrator
Good luck everyone. I am out for the day. Not sure I will be back before market's close. I set my sell at 28.85 in case something goes nuts here while I take my daughter to the doctor today.
5Rings
Lurker
300 @ 9.28
Random
Footballguy
Silver has crushed gold over the past few weeks. I've watched the gold/silver ratio go from 75.xx to 69.xx. Do you know what the traditional ratio is?
General Malaise
Footballguy
Not without looking, but I've been waiting for it to regress to something far less than what's its been over the last 5+ years. When gold hit 800 in 1980, wasn't silver around 50? I'm pretty sure it was....I've been watching sliver for a while and finally jumped in a couple weeks ago. Other than buying a pillow case full of silver coins to stash in a foot locker, seems like SLV is the best play here.
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Mark Davis
Footballguy
I've also considered SLV but haven't played it at all yet.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Way to turn the market, Kee!
Keerock
Footballguy
Back in the day when I was day trading (practically for a living), I would both love and hate days like this...
Every trade works, buy at the right time, set the right stops, take nice profits. Then the next day, while your confidence is high, the market kicks you in the nuts.
Every trade works, buy at the right time, set the right stops, take nice profits. Then the next day, while your confidence is high, the market kicks you in the nuts.
