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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

The timing of this makes me sick. As I mentioned previously in this thread I have refinanced my mortgage in order to pull equity to invest in the market. The money hit my account yesterday and I have an appt this afternoon with my broker to set up and fund the accounts. If only I had arranged to have the appt yesterday afternoon.

 
David is going to wet his pants when he gets back.

He wanted to get 250k into UCO at 9.40ish but his broker wouldn't let him. Ouch.

Nothing like missing a 25K gain when it isn't your fault.

 
bigfishboy said:
David is going to wet his pants when he gets back.He wanted to get 250k into UCO at 9.40ish but his broker wouldn't let him. Ouch.Nothing like missing a 25K gain when it isn't your fault.
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Not sure when he would've moved out, but currently it's back down to 9.69.
 
Strange day....

I was down 1.5% early, then up nearly 2% and closed up 38 bps...

These oil ETFs act like a snake when you cut the head off...

 
Finally back. I made some decent coin with USO, but not nearly what I would have made had Wells Fargo not screwed me. But still feels great to have this one completely figured out today. Not sure what created the riot and higher prices, but thank you. Back out in cash now.

Glad you guys followed me on this one. This was about as strong a feeling I have had in this market regarding oil. My guess is either an investor bough (putting on tankers) or China bought. If that turns out to be the case, that could have downward pressure on DXO (July contracts).

I will update everything later tonight. I enter the weekend 100% cash again....

 
Obviously I had my stop way too low for USO at 28.85 as the thing powered past it. But very happy with my profit of $1.20 a share x 1500 shares. Less the $12 in commissions I made $1,788 while taking my daughter to the doctor. Slightly frustrated about my account status though. I will have at least $100K moved to Scott Trade by next week so this never happens again.

Today's profit = $1,788

Year to date profit = $16,301

Unless the after and pre-markets change things, I expect to be back in oil stocks come Monday at these prices.

 
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Heading into Monday, here are the oil prices:

March - $40.17

April - $46.15

May - $48.85

June - $50.39

July - $51.61

What I think is amazing is the gap between March and April that is developing (currently at $5.98/barrel). This has now become a DEEP contango again which bodes well for the market. Not sure what happened today, but somebody was BUYING lots of short-term oil. I suspect this went on tankers or is filling up China's reserves. Everyone KNOWS that OPEC is now going to make another cut at the March meeting. So despite bad economic news and inventory levels not seen in a long time, I still think oil is headed for the $55/60 per barrel by the summer months.

I still think the best bet here is UCO since it ties directly with the March contract.

 
David Dodds said:
Heading into Monday, here are the oil prices:March - $40.17April - $46.15May - $48.85June - $50.39July - $51.61What I think is amazing is the gap between March and April that is developing (currently at $5.98/barrel). This has now become a DEEP contango again which bodes well for the market. Not sure what happened today, but somebody was BUYING lots of short-term oil. I suspect this went on tankers or is filling up China's reserves. Everyone KNOWS that OPEC is now going to make another cut at the March meeting. So despite bad economic news and inventory levels not seen in a long time, I still think oil is headed for the $55/60 per barrel by the summer months.I still think the best bet here is UCO since it ties directly with the March contract.
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So you're saying that March oil looks cheap, right? Also with your prediction of oil at $55-60 by July, the July numbers look cheap too then, right? Just not AS cheap as the March oil.Just trying to get where your analysis is coming from. BTW, I've been in agreement all along with the "oil higher in the summer" thing even with the sour economic news. OPEC will make cuts, and I think that by July there will either be some sort of trigger in the Mid-East OR there will be some OK economic news. The US can't lose jobs at a 600,000/month clip for 6 months straight. This aint the Great Depression unless other things get WAY worse (protectionist measures, shut-down of int'l trade, etc.)So there it is. I'm long on UCO, DXO, and OIL. As I was before. Exit point is still looking toward the summer. I need to stop quasi day trading because the brokers' fees will kill me eventually.Here's where I stand:Major Oil Players: BP, CVX, REPOil ETFs: DXO, OIL, UCOOther: EXM
 
WEAK!!!!Just got this email:
Dear Zecco Trading client,I'm writing to tell you that as of March 1st, 2009, we're increasing the minimum level of assets needed to earn 10 free stock trades per month to $25,000. We're also adding a new way to get free trades: customers who make at least 25 total trades per month will also qualify for 10 free stock trades per month.
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That's some bull#### right there. The $2,500 min was the main selling point. Guess I'll be looking for another broker soon.
 
The Z Machine said:
WEAK!!!!Just got this email:

Dear Zecco Trading client,I'm writing to tell you that as of March 1st, 2009, we're increasing the minimum level of assets needed to earn 10 free stock trades per month to $25,000. We're also adding a new way to get free trades: customers who make at least 25 total trades per month will also qualify for 10 free stock trades per month.
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That's some bull#### right there. The $2,500 min was the main selling point. Guess I'll be looking for another broker soon.
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Z,I just followed you to zecco. I didn't realize they just changed this in the last week or so. You were getting free trades?If it matters, I looked at several other sites and couldn't find any others as good as $4.50/trade. I should get the funds available next Tuesday.Let us know if you find a better deal out there.
 
Yeah, I only have $3000 in there as that's all I'm willing to put up for my gambling investments right now.

I'll keep you updated.

 
Is there a reason you guys don't use your IRA to invest/trade/gamble? Thats where my GLD holdings are right now and where I am planning to get into oil etfs next week. The trade fees are high ($25) but if you don't make alot of trades the taxes more than make up for it.

 
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how does trading within an IRA work? If I am legally bound by my company to not trade stocks would using an IRA to make similar trades be just as illegal or is that too specific of a question without knowing more details?

 
Alias said:
how does trading within an IRA work? If I am legally bound by my company to not trade stocks would using an IRA to make similar trades be just as illegal or is that too specific of a question without knowing more details?
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I would guess that it would be just as illegal. IRA is just the tax treatment of the gains and losses and when the tax occurs. You still own the stocks so my guess is that you couldn't do it in an IRA or any type of account.
 
I don't know why your employer would forbid your trading stocks in your IRA. I didn't think IRAs were tied to employers. I suppose it is a SEP IRA. I trade rather extensively in both mine and my wife's IRA, as well as my daughter's ESA The commissions are the same as any other trade. (9.95 each for me). It seems like a great place to have quick gainers without paying short term capital gains.

 
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I'll probably be on UCO and a varity of bank stocks on Monday...I think the annoucement of the "bad bank" is coming and hopefully we will see a quick jump.

BAC, FAS, and I'm going to look into CNB a little more. They got blasted for claiming they were going to receive tarp money and didn't realize the restrictions on it.

 
Random said:
Is there a reason you guys don't use your IRA to invest/trade/gamble? Thats where my GLD holdings are right now and where I am planning to get into oil etfs next week. The trade fees are high ($25) but if you don't make alot of trades the taxes more than make up for it.
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One difference on my SEP IRA account is there is no margin for writing the options so you can't write as many contracts.
 
I just read this whole thread and it was a great read. It takes nads to put it all out there online and I give you kudos. Your original idea was CRAZY and I am glad you recovered you're sanity. Trade what you are comfortable with and "feel" you have some knowledge of.

I'll be very interested to follow it especially regarding oil ETF's as I have not felt comfortable to jump into these as you are and have not had a good grasp of the factors and trends that drive the prices. I have had some luck in financial ETF's (FAS, FAZ) but they can be evil....and there are still people that don't understand the scary decay. I have a buy into FAZ at 34.95 tomorrow but I don't think it will get there. The delay of approval of financial stimulus should stall the momentum of Friday but I can hope.

Not to hijack but I am documenting my below VERY non conservative stock choices so I can see how I actually do with my other longterm gambles which are:

- Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) - This stock dropped like a lead turd over the last few months but there is a good possibility that they will avoid bankruptcy. You have to do you due diligence regarding a lot of takeover rumors now but I believe it you can buy at .10 per share it could easily hit .50 within a year or two....or .0001.

- Arthrocare (ARTC) - They have a pretty good business (I work in the healthcare industry) but have had an accounting scandal that has required them to restate financials a few years back. They were dropped from the NASDAQ but should rejoin soon after restating the financials in early March. It is in the mid 5's now and if it hits the high to mid 4's I am buying. Too much was made of the scandal (I believe an overreaction which is accented in this crazy market) and this could be at 12 to 15 by June after the financials are restated.

- Nova Chemicals (NCX) - They are a large plastics company in Canada that has dropped a ton awaiting financing issues. I don't think Canada will let them fail and recent rumors of financing drove the stock up 50%. I am buying at 1.35 and will dump in the mid 2's if it gets there.

- General Growth Properties (GGP) - This is a total crapshoot. They are a huge mall owner and operator. They really could go bankrupt but I believe they will not as their lenders would get killed in this market attempting to liquidate their assets (malls). Also, they are huge and it could set a scary precedent in the retail sector. There is a boatload of opinions each way but my feeling is they make it. They delayed their Q4 financials 2 weeks which I think will scare off some people. I see it dropping from the .81 close on Friday to the high .50's / high .60's in the week. I am buying there but I don't know if I have the balls to stay in it if it goes above a dollar.

Don't put alot of $ in any of these but the rewards for all of them could be interesting. I am interested to see if by the end of the year if any of these potential dogs payoff. Good luck to all.

 
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Welcome Turd Ferguson. Yes this has been a bit of a roller coaster for me. Happy to be up for the year, but I have made some horrible decisions along the way that have really put a damper on things.

My strategy going forward will likely be centered around oil, the dry shippers and the financial companies (all very volatile).

 
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Looks like oil, shipping and financials are all going to be up on the bell. I might be on the sidelines for a bit looking for a good opportunity to buy on some weakness.

 
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