My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

[David Dodds]

"China's economy is already showing some signs of slight recovery."I have some concern about the trade numbers that come out tomorrow morning. If China's exports are significantly down, that could have a huge effect on prices of oil. I am long oil, but wouldn't be suprised in the immediate short term if oil decreases further.

China January exports came in -17.5% year over year. Consensus was +14%. I think oil is going to get killed today. I hope I'm wrong.

I think the quote above is very misleading due to this in the same article:The trade slump was likely exacerbated by a week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which occurred in January this year and February last year. China’s economy grew 6.8 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, the weakest pace since 2001.

 

[David Dodds]

Crude up to $38.22. Come on Rally Monkey. Right now I am just $0.10 short of my buy price on my 6,000 shares of UCO. I am pretty sure I am holding through the inventory report though.

 

[David Dodds]

Going to go do some work today. I remain upside down on things. I think my best hope will be the inventory report. But even if oil and shipping remain down, I am holding here. I love these sectors.

 

[Keerock]

I'm doing the same. Painful to sit here and watch.

 

[Mark Davis]

Same here. What is as painful is watching GLD rise. I've made a bit there through my put writing but I'm limited on my upside. I keep hoping for one final pullback but that's looking less likely.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Good article from Bloomberg

I am holding out to see the inventory report:

The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. supplies declined 2 million barrels to 344.3 million last week. The API published its weekly report on oil inventories at 4:30 p.m. in Washington on Tuesday.

Energy Department figures, to be released at 10:30 a.m. in Washington on Wednesday, may show that crude-oil stockpiles increased 2.75 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 6 from 346.1 million the week before, according to the median of 14 analyst estimates. It would be the 18th gain in 20 weeks. All of the analysts said supplies rose.

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For those scoring at home, API stated that there would be a huge gain while the analysts had said it would be this same 2-3 million gain for last week. The EIA report confirmed the API report when the official report was released. If stockpiles reduced this could lead to a big rally for oil today. Also watch the news regarding the stimulus plan. If that looks like it will get through the HOUSE soon then that also could cause a bump. I think we are in for a great rally today. My only question now is where do I set my sell targets at if we get a great inventory report?

Inventory ReportU.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased 4.7 million barrels from the previous week.

 

[Random]

Same here. What is as painful is watching GLD rise. I've made a bit there through my put writing but I'm limited on my upside. I keep hoping for one final pullback but that's looking less likely.

UCO GLD

 

[Mark Davis]

Same here. What is as painful is watching GLD rise. I've made a bit there through my put writing but I'm limited on my upside. I keep hoping for one final pullback but that's looking less likely.

UCO GLD

Exactly my sentiments. Luckily my GLD profit has offset my UCO, USO, DBO, etc. loss. Longer term I still like all of the above.

 

[Random]

Same here. What is as painful is watching GLD rise. I've made a bit there through my put writing but I'm limited on my upside. I keep hoping for one final pullback but that's looking less likely.

UCO GLD

Exactly my sentiments. Luckily my GLD profit has offset my UCO, USO, DBO, etc. loss. Longer term I still like all of the above.

I'm close to 10x more in GLD than UCO. But it still feels like a double whammy watching UCO tank and GLD take off.

 

[General Malaise]

100 AGQ @ 41.50Get the feeling gold and silver will see flight concerns.

 

[General Malaise]

Actually, I'm going to keep DOG in play. Avg cost is 73.88, so this isn't anything to breakdance to...

 

[Mark Davis]

100 AGQ @ 41.50Get the feeling gold and silver will see flight concerns.

I'm on board with your thinking with SLV. I think it's just now starting to get out of the gate and may be a bit behind GLD in that regard.

 

[5Rings]

I think the financial sector is nice today. Bought more BAC (5.90) and WFC (17.08)

 

[General Malaise]

GO OIL....GO GO GO

 

[BR33ZE]

GO OIL....GO GO GO

update?

 

[General Malaise]

GO OIL....GO GO GO

update?

I'm still rooting.

 

[BR33ZE]

GO OIL....GO GO GO

update?

I'm still rooting.

I can't figure out if you are rooting for OIL or Oil.And do you want it to go up or down?

 

[General Malaise]

GO OIL....GO GO GO

update?

I'm still rooting.

I can't figure out if you are rooting for OIL or Oil.And do you want it to go up or down?

Oh, I'm not long OIL, but I am long oil in the form of DXO and UCO. I'd like the price of crude to advance, so my positions go up, but right now, I don't have a warm fuzzy feeling about oil and will use any rallies to sell some or all of my position.

 

[Mark Davis]

GO OIL....GO GO GO

update?

I'm still rooting.

I can't figure out if you are rooting for OIL or Oil.And do you want it to go up or down?

Oh, I'm not long OIL, but I am long oil in the form of DXO and UCO. I'd like the price of crude to advance, so my positions go up, but right now, I don't have a warm fuzzy feeling about oil and will use any rallies to sell some or all of my position.

I get the same feeling. It makes no sense for it to go much lower but it has that feel. Earlier today I bought back one of my USO puts I wrote for February and just took the loss it. I already have enough exposure in UCO and DBO I didn't need to add that one right now. Trying to stay fairly flexible and able to buy in for more if prices continue to decline.

 

[David Dodds]

Call me crazy, but I bought another 2,000 shares of UCO at 8.22. I am just mystified at the these prices. The fact that I sold yesterday at 10.13 when no real news has pushed this so much further down is beyond silly. This lowers my average cost to $8.70 per share. I am just about All-IN here regarding oil unless this goes into the 7s.

 

[Sand]

GO OIL GLD....GO GO GO

Fixed.

 

[siffoin]

GO OIL....GO GO GO

update?

I'm still rooting.

I can't figure out if you are rooting for OIL or Oil.And do you want it to go up or down?

Oh, I'm not long OIL, but I am long oil in the form of DXO and UCO. I'd like the price of crude to advance, so my positions go up, but right now, I don't have a warm fuzzy feeling about oil and will use any rallies to sell some or all of my position.

I get the same feeling. It makes no sense for it to go much lower but it has that feel. Earlier today I bought back one of my USO puts I wrote for February and just took the loss it. I already have enough exposure in UCO and DBO I didn't need to add that one right now. Trying to stay fairly flexible and able to buy in for more if prices continue to decline.

On option that you have on a written put when it is likely that the underlying will be "put" to you and you have a loss is to take possession of the shares which will occur AFTER expiration, then immediately write a covered call on the position at a strike that is profitable or worst case break-even. The only time you don't do this is when your opinion of the underlying has changed and you think the underlying faces significant downward pressure. You seem to indicate a belief that oil is near a bottom...so figure out a way to best manage the position instead of just accepting the loss.

 

[General Malaise]

Call me crazy, but I bought another 2,000 shares of UCO at 8.22. I am just mystified at the these prices. The fact that I sold yesterday at 10.13 when no real news has pushed this so much further down is beyond silly. This lowers my average cost to $8.70 per share. I am just about All-IN here regarding oil unless this goes into the 7s.

You're crazy. I think you know it already, but you are.

 

[Cromedog]

Call me crazy, but I bought another 2,000 shares of UCO at 8.22. I am just mystified at the these prices. The fact that I sold yesterday at 10.13 when no real news has pushed this so much further down is beyond silly. This lowers my average cost to $8.70 per share. I am just about All-IN here regarding oil unless this goes into the 7s.

I'm with ya David...

 

[David Dodds]

Call me crazy, but I bought another 2,000 shares of UCO at 8.22. I am just mystified at the these prices. The fact that I sold yesterday at 10.13 when no real news has pushed this so much further down is beyond silly. This lowers my average cost to $8.70 per share. I am just about All-IN here regarding oil unless this goes into the 7s.

You're crazy. I think you know it already, but you are.

I am going to be sick if these purchases end up with me losing the full $17K I have gained year to date. If I get in much deeper here, it might be cheaper to fly to Israel and try and flare up a war over there.Anyway best of luck everyone. I am hunkering down here until some sort of rally changes things. Looking bleak anytime today.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Call me crazy, but I bought another 2,000 shares of UCO at 8.22. I am just mystified at the these prices. The fact that I sold yesterday at 10.13 when no real news has pushed this so much further down is beyond silly. This lowers my average cost to $8.70 per share. I am just about All-IN here regarding oil unless this goes into the 7s.

You're crazy. I think you know it already, but you are.

I am going to be sick if these purchases end up with me losing the full $17K I have gained year to date. If I get in much deeper here, it might be cheaper to fly to Israel and try and flare up a war over there.Anyway best of luck everyone. I am hunkering down here until some sort of rally changes things. Looking bleak anytime today.

I just saw that quote too, and is tempting, but I'm going to wait and see if DXO hits $2.42.

 

[David Dodds]

Crude oil is now trading at $35.88/barrel. WOW

 

[SecondCity34]

Just got in on some USO at 25.90

May do some UCO in the high 7's.

 

[David Dodds]

OIL, USO and UCO are all now trading at their 52-week lows. Does that make any sense at all as we are actually a lot closer to the big consumption months of June/July and the Stimulus is inches from passing which should start to help the construction sector?

Of course I wish I had not bought this all the way down, but somebody is going to get rich loading up on stuff here. If I were OPEC I would have an emergency meeting this week and state that you have commitments to cut another 3 million barrels of oil a day. Even if you don't have that, it would likely prop up prices in the short-term. No way can these countries operate at a profit at these oil prices. Hunkering down here, but I know this has to rebound from these levels.

 

[Random]

Just got in on some USO at 25.90May do some UCO in the high 7's.

:finger:

 

[David Dodds]

Just got in on some USO at 25.90May do some UCO in the high 7's.

Good for you. Pretty limited downside at these levels. This should be a great gain for you.

 

[SecondCity34]

Just got in on some USO at 25.90May do some UCO in the high 7's.

Good for you. Pretty limited downside at these levels. This should be a great gain for you.

Thanks. I need one. I took a bath on EEV several weeks ago.

 

[General Malaise]

What is the short ETF for oil?

 

[St. Louis Bob]

What is the short ETF for oil?

DTO

 

[David Dodds]

What is the short ETF for oil?

SCO is the opposite of UCO (short term oil)DTO is the opposite of DXO (short mid-term oil)

 

[St. Louis Bob]

OK gents, Oil is now a buy again. I like UCO at 9.66 a lot

You can buy mine at 9.50.

9.45I'll be underwater this in 15 cents.

I just got 500 at $9.48.

Out this morning at $10.03 +$275.00Sold my 2500 DXO too at $2.81 +$975.00

I put an order in for 3500 DXO at $2.42.

killedChanged to 2000 DXO at $2.35, this ETF isn't tracking like it should IMO.

Also added 1000 UCO at $8.01, this DOES appear to be tracking correctly. If I would have been a little faster I might have gotten this through already.

*This is my "money my wife doesn't know about" part 2. :(

 

[General Malaise]

OK gents, Oil is now a buy again. I like UCO at 9.66 a lot

You can buy mine at 9.50.

9.45I'll be underwater this in 15 cents.

I just got 500 at $9.48.

Out this morning at $10.03 +$275.00Sold my 2500 DXO too at $2.81 +$975.00

I put an order in for 3500 DXO at $2.42.

killedChanged to 2000 DXO at $2.35, this ETF isn't tracking like it should IMO.

Also added 1000 UCO at $8.01, this DOES appear to be tracking correctly. If I would have been a little faster I might have gotten this through already.

*This is my "money my wife doesn't know about" part 2.

Start hiding hidden money....

 

[General Malaise]

What is the short ETF for oil?

SCO is the opposite of UCO (short term oil)DTO is the opposite of DXO (short mid-term oil)

On my watch list...

 

[Mark Davis]

GO OIL....GO GO GO

update?

I'm still rooting.

I can't figure out if you are rooting for OIL or Oil.And do you want it to go up or down?

Oh, I'm not long OIL, but I am long oil in the form of DXO and UCO. I'd like the price of crude to advance, so my positions go up, but right now, I don't have a warm fuzzy feeling about oil and will use any rallies to sell some or all of my position.

I get the same feeling. It makes no sense for it to go much lower but it has that feel. Earlier today I bought back one of my USO puts I wrote for February and just took the loss it. I already have enough exposure in UCO and DBO I didn't need to add that one right now. Trying to stay fairly flexible and able to buy in for more if prices continue to decline.

On option that you have on a written put when it is likely that the underlying will be "put" to you and you have a loss is to take possession of the shares which will occur AFTER expiration, then immediately write a covered call on the position at a strike that is profitable or worst case break-even. The only time you don't do this is when your opinion of the underlying has changed and you think the underlying faces significant downward pressure. You seem to indicate a belief that oil is near a bottom...so figure out a way to best manage the position instead of just accepting the loss.

This is my plan on DBO. It may be likely I wish I had done the same for USO at some stage.

 

[David Dodds]

EXM is on the move again. Hopefully it can sustain this until the close.

 

[The Sniper]

Crude oil is now trading at $35.88/barrel. WOW

I hereby go on record predicting sub $30 per barrel oil within the next 30 days. Followed by a doubling by July.

 

[David Dodds]

Crude oil is now trading at $35.88/barrel. WOW

I hereby go on record predicting sub $30 per barrel oil within the next 30 days. Followed by a doubling by July.

Have you factored in the FBGs flying to Israel to increase tension in that area? We all stand to lose a lot if oil goes that low.

 

[Cromedog]

Call me crazy, but I bought another 2,000 shares of UCO at 8.22. I am just mystified at the these prices. The fact that I sold yesterday at 10.13 when no real news has pushed this so much further down is beyond silly. This lowers my average cost to $8.70 per share. I am just about All-IN here regarding oil unless this goes into the 7s.

You're crazy. I think you know it already, but you are.

I am going to be sick if these purchases end up with me losing the full $17K I have gained year to date. If I get in much deeper here, it might be cheaper to fly to Israel and try and flare up a war over there.Anyway best of luck everyone. I am hunkering down here until some sort of rally changes things. Looking bleak anytime today.

Crude oil is now trading at $35.88/barrel. WOW

I hereby go on record predicting sub $30 per barrel oil within the next 30 days. Followed by a doubling by July.

Have you factored in the FBGs flying to Israel to increase tension in that area? We all stand to lose a lot if oil goes that low.

Just gotta hold it...it's gotta go up.

 

[adonis]

Here's to hoping the markets don't stay irrational longer than you guys can stay liquid.

I'm on the sidelines, but rooting for the players. GL.

 

[The Sniper]

Towards the end of today's session I jumped in on some FAS as a pure rental. Got in at $8.25.

Dumped it just now at $8.85 for about a 6% 1 day gain including commissions.

 

[David Dodds]

Profit today = $448 (PRGN)

Year to date profit = $17,565

I hold these positions into tomorrow:

7,000 shares of UCO @8.70 (added 1,000 shares today)

1,000 shares of ESEA @5.49

2,500 shares of EXM @8.25

3,000 shares of SBLK @3.04

At current prices, I am upside down on these securities to the tune of $6,650. As I type this, I am riding this out without stop losses. I hate being upside down, but frankly don't believe the evaluations are correct. I have 6,000 shares set to sell when UCO hits 9.25. I am not going to put sell orders in on Dry Shipping until the BDI shows signs of slowing down.

 

[Sand]

What is the short ETF for oil?

SCO is the opposite of UCO (short term oil)DTO is the opposite of DXO (short mid-term oil)

'Cause you guys are special here is an excel ETF list that I have been gathering for a while now. It has all the leveraged instruments in there for easy reference.

 

[Random]

What is the short ETF for oil?

SCO is the opposite of UCO (short term oil)DTO is the opposite of DXO (short mid-term oil)

'Cause you guys are special here is an excel ETF list that I have been gathering for a while now. It has all the leveraged instruments in there for easy reference.

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

Cool Sand, thanks.

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

Sand - (Or anyone else)

I want to invest for the long term in strong companies that would benefit from the devaluing of the US dollar. Do I have to go outside the US Exchanges to do that? Any fund recommendations?