Evilhomer3k
Footballguy
Joe has done his "Perfect Draft" article several years now. I've read it numerous times and have found it to be well worth reading (and in most cases following). Since Joe's most recent "Perfect Draft" is now fairly old, I came up with my own for a draft I did today. I think I was much happier with the way the draft went than I have been in the past. Yes, people still got snatched up just before I grabbed them and some people fell causing me to deviate but the process worked well.
In coming up with my draft, I looked at ADP of people and my rankings. I also tried to take into account the drafting tendencies (from the last two years of drafts) of my fellow drafters. I tried to choose people who should be available based on ADP.
One other thing about this draft is that two others besides me use the draft dominator or the excel spreadsheet from FBG. That gave me some insight into who they might pick but also gave them the same rankings as I had. That is part of the reason I tried scripting my "Perfect Draft".
I think I should give out some background on my league first. I'm in several leagues and have been for years. This particular league is roughly 50/50 guppies and sharks. There are several very good drafters and some who will make a great pick only to follow it up with a pick that seems as accurate as taping their cheat sheet to the wall and throwing a dart. Overall, though, there's some good competition.
For rosters we allow a very loose roster. You can start 1 QB, 1-2 RB, 2-3 WR, 0-2 TE, 1k, and 1 D. Running backs go fast as most people realize the value. Points wise things are a little off the standard, too. 4 points for a passing td (6 for rush/rec), .5 points per reception, and TE's score .15 points per yard (vs .1 for wr/rb). Gates was top 10 in our system last year so TE's are worth drafting.
1st Round Projected Picks:Brown, Jackson, Rudi, Edge, Caddy, and Jordan
I drafted from the 7 slot. In round 1 I wanted to see what fell. I figured there was no way I'd get Barber or Portis and I didn't. One person took Steve Smith at 1.05 (new owner) and I was hoping for Barber to fall but he didn't. I took SJackson from a crowd of backs. I wanted Jackson, Rudi, or Brown (in that order). Jackson has a year as the feature back under his belt, has a coach committed to using him, and has the physical size/skills to be a work horse. Barring injury, I felt his floor was similar to Rudi. I felt Brown had more potential than Jackson but that his floor was much lower. If there was a solid backup behind him, I would have been more likely to take Brown and handcuff. Rudi is a solid vet with some pretty consistent numbers but could share more time this year. I didn't feel his potential was as great as Jackson and his floor wasn't enough above Jacksons to bump him up there.
2nd Round Projected Picks: C Johnson, Smith, Owens, Holt, Fitzgerald
I had Smith higher than any of them with Johnson and Holt close to each other. Then Owens and Fitz. I knew one would be there and Smith, Owens, and Holt were gone by the time it got to me. That made it easy for me to pick Johnson.
3rd Round Projected Picks: Chester Taylor
I had Chester Taylor pegged for round 3. I didn't have a backup so if he was gone I could have gotten off track right there. He was there but so was Randy Moss. I passed him by and grabbed Moss. Remember that this league requires only one starting RB. The history of the league is that about 3 qb's and 6 WR's are gone by round 3 so I was hoping Taylor would be there in the 4th.
4th Round Projected Picks: Chambers, Driver, R Williams
By the time it got back to me in the 4th 7 wr's were taken. Chambers and Williams were gone but Driver was there. I passed on Driver and grabbed Chester Taylor.
5th Round Projected Picks: Deion Branch
Once again I didn't have a backup but figured I could take the next wr on the board. I wanted Branch because of the WR situation in NE. Caldwell has had some good games in SD but injuries have really hurt him. I don't think it will be any different in New England and the only WR on the roster besides Branch with any experience is the 35 year old Troy Brown (whom I may be grabbing off the waiver wire if Branch doesn't report soon). Others who were taken shortly after were Andre Johnson, Todd Heap, Derrick Mason, Galloway, and Joe Horn.
6th Round Projected Picks: Thomas Jones, Ahman Green, Fred Taylor
Ahman Green and Thomas Jones went in the late 5th and early 6th. Dominic Rhodes was available and I figured I could get Rhodes and Addai in the 6th and 7th (altering my "Perfect Draft"). I took Rhodes instead of Fred Taylor. If he manages to grab the job in Indy he could be huge.
7th Round Projected Picks: Mike Bell
After the Rhodes pick I really hoped that Addai would drop but he didn't. Bell was still there so I took him.
8th Round Projected Picks: Aaron Brooks
I had Brooks pretty high on my list and had a planned backup in Round 9 in case Brooks bombed. To my surprise, Trent Green was around in the 8th. I took Brooks anyway.
9th Round Projected Picks: Brett Favre
Green was still around in the 9th so I took him. Definitely a better "backup" to Brooks
10th Round Projected Picks: Samkon Gado
Gado was gone but the guppy's gave me the gift of DeAngelo Williams. I didn't get Green anyway so I didn't feel Gado was a necessity.
11th Round Projected Picks: Muhammad, McCardell
Both were gone so I went with Antonio Bryant. Would have really liked McCardell as I'm a Charger fan and Rivers looked pretty good in game 1 of the pre-season but it didn't happen.
12th Round Projected Picks: John Kitna
Kitna was available but so was Brett Favre. Favre went in the 6th round of our league last year. He finished 13th in his worst season recently. They didnt look good in the first game but Favre will get his yards and tds. At this point the only other QB's worth a look were Kitna and Volek. Kitna went at the end of the 12th.
13th Round Projedted Picks: Roddy White, Michael Jenkins
One of these guys should be able to be a decent bye week filler. Both were available. I took Michael Jenkins.
14th Round Projected Picks: Miami D
Defenses score a fair number of points in our league so I wanted to get something decent. Different sites seem to vary significantly on how they rank defenses but Miami was pretty hign on my list and had an ADP of two rounds lower. Miami was taken in the 12th by another draft dominator user who happens to be a Dolphins fan. I took Roddy White, who was still available.
15th Round Projected Pick: Josh Brown
Brown was available but so was Jason Elam. Easy choice in Elam.
16th Round Projected Pick: None
Last round of our draft. I figured this would be the time to grab a backup running back or defense if Miami was gone. At this point there was very little left in the defensive position. I took Arizona because they play SF. I generally look a few weeks ahead in this league and grab whatever D plays SF or the Jets. While it is nice to get a set and forget Defense between SF, NY, and Buf there is always a D that can be plucked off the waiver for decent points.
Final Roster:
Brooks
Green
Favre
S Jackson
C Taylor
D Rhodes
M Bell
D Williams
C Johnson
R Moss
D Branch
R White
A Bryant
M Jenkins
Elam
Arizona
I'll need one of my committee backs to work out or I could be in some bye week trouble (more if Taylor tanks). Overall, though, I'm pretty happy with my team. I got half of the people I targeted and it seemed to make my draft go better by going through the process and trying to pinpoint when to take the guys I was high on. In some cases I didn't get 'my guy' because he was gone. In some cases someone fell to me who was better than the guy I'd projected. There is certainly value to the process and I know I'll do it again for my other two drafts.
In coming up with my draft, I looked at ADP of people and my rankings. I also tried to take into account the drafting tendencies (from the last two years of drafts) of my fellow drafters. I tried to choose people who should be available based on ADP.
One other thing about this draft is that two others besides me use the draft dominator or the excel spreadsheet from FBG. That gave me some insight into who they might pick but also gave them the same rankings as I had. That is part of the reason I tried scripting my "Perfect Draft".
I think I should give out some background on my league first. I'm in several leagues and have been for years. This particular league is roughly 50/50 guppies and sharks. There are several very good drafters and some who will make a great pick only to follow it up with a pick that seems as accurate as taping their cheat sheet to the wall and throwing a dart. Overall, though, there's some good competition.
For rosters we allow a very loose roster. You can start 1 QB, 1-2 RB, 2-3 WR, 0-2 TE, 1k, and 1 D. Running backs go fast as most people realize the value. Points wise things are a little off the standard, too. 4 points for a passing td (6 for rush/rec), .5 points per reception, and TE's score .15 points per yard (vs .1 for wr/rb). Gates was top 10 in our system last year so TE's are worth drafting.
1st Round Projected Picks:Brown, Jackson, Rudi, Edge, Caddy, and Jordan
I drafted from the 7 slot. In round 1 I wanted to see what fell. I figured there was no way I'd get Barber or Portis and I didn't. One person took Steve Smith at 1.05 (new owner) and I was hoping for Barber to fall but he didn't. I took SJackson from a crowd of backs. I wanted Jackson, Rudi, or Brown (in that order). Jackson has a year as the feature back under his belt, has a coach committed to using him, and has the physical size/skills to be a work horse. Barring injury, I felt his floor was similar to Rudi. I felt Brown had more potential than Jackson but that his floor was much lower. If there was a solid backup behind him, I would have been more likely to take Brown and handcuff. Rudi is a solid vet with some pretty consistent numbers but could share more time this year. I didn't feel his potential was as great as Jackson and his floor wasn't enough above Jacksons to bump him up there.
2nd Round Projected Picks: C Johnson, Smith, Owens, Holt, Fitzgerald
I had Smith higher than any of them with Johnson and Holt close to each other. Then Owens and Fitz. I knew one would be there and Smith, Owens, and Holt were gone by the time it got to me. That made it easy for me to pick Johnson.
3rd Round Projected Picks: Chester Taylor
I had Chester Taylor pegged for round 3. I didn't have a backup so if he was gone I could have gotten off track right there. He was there but so was Randy Moss. I passed him by and grabbed Moss. Remember that this league requires only one starting RB. The history of the league is that about 3 qb's and 6 WR's are gone by round 3 so I was hoping Taylor would be there in the 4th.
4th Round Projected Picks: Chambers, Driver, R Williams
By the time it got back to me in the 4th 7 wr's were taken. Chambers and Williams were gone but Driver was there. I passed on Driver and grabbed Chester Taylor.
5th Round Projected Picks: Deion Branch
Once again I didn't have a backup but figured I could take the next wr on the board. I wanted Branch because of the WR situation in NE. Caldwell has had some good games in SD but injuries have really hurt him. I don't think it will be any different in New England and the only WR on the roster besides Branch with any experience is the 35 year old Troy Brown (whom I may be grabbing off the waiver wire if Branch doesn't report soon). Others who were taken shortly after were Andre Johnson, Todd Heap, Derrick Mason, Galloway, and Joe Horn.
6th Round Projected Picks: Thomas Jones, Ahman Green, Fred Taylor
Ahman Green and Thomas Jones went in the late 5th and early 6th. Dominic Rhodes was available and I figured I could get Rhodes and Addai in the 6th and 7th (altering my "Perfect Draft"). I took Rhodes instead of Fred Taylor. If he manages to grab the job in Indy he could be huge.
7th Round Projected Picks: Mike Bell
After the Rhodes pick I really hoped that Addai would drop but he didn't. Bell was still there so I took him.
8th Round Projected Picks: Aaron Brooks
I had Brooks pretty high on my list and had a planned backup in Round 9 in case Brooks bombed. To my surprise, Trent Green was around in the 8th. I took Brooks anyway.
9th Round Projected Picks: Brett Favre
Green was still around in the 9th so I took him. Definitely a better "backup" to Brooks
10th Round Projected Picks: Samkon Gado
Gado was gone but the guppy's gave me the gift of DeAngelo Williams. I didn't get Green anyway so I didn't feel Gado was a necessity.
11th Round Projected Picks: Muhammad, McCardell
Both were gone so I went with Antonio Bryant. Would have really liked McCardell as I'm a Charger fan and Rivers looked pretty good in game 1 of the pre-season but it didn't happen.
12th Round Projected Picks: John Kitna
Kitna was available but so was Brett Favre. Favre went in the 6th round of our league last year. He finished 13th in his worst season recently. They didnt look good in the first game but Favre will get his yards and tds. At this point the only other QB's worth a look were Kitna and Volek. Kitna went at the end of the 12th.
13th Round Projedted Picks: Roddy White, Michael Jenkins
One of these guys should be able to be a decent bye week filler. Both were available. I took Michael Jenkins.
14th Round Projected Picks: Miami D
Defenses score a fair number of points in our league so I wanted to get something decent. Different sites seem to vary significantly on how they rank defenses but Miami was pretty hign on my list and had an ADP of two rounds lower. Miami was taken in the 12th by another draft dominator user who happens to be a Dolphins fan. I took Roddy White, who was still available.
15th Round Projected Pick: Josh Brown
Brown was available but so was Jason Elam. Easy choice in Elam.
16th Round Projected Pick: None
Last round of our draft. I figured this would be the time to grab a backup running back or defense if Miami was gone. At this point there was very little left in the defensive position. I took Arizona because they play SF. I generally look a few weeks ahead in this league and grab whatever D plays SF or the Jets. While it is nice to get a set and forget Defense between SF, NY, and Buf there is always a D that can be plucked off the waiver for decent points.
Final Roster:
Brooks
Green
Favre
S Jackson
C Taylor
D Rhodes
M Bell
D Williams
C Johnson
R Moss
D Branch
R White
A Bryant
M Jenkins
Elam
Arizona
I'll need one of my committee backs to work out or I could be in some bye week trouble (more if Taylor tanks). Overall, though, I'm pretty happy with my team. I got half of the people I targeted and it seemed to make my draft go better by going through the process and trying to pinpoint when to take the guys I was high on. In some cases I didn't get 'my guy' because he was gone. In some cases someone fell to me who was better than the guy I'd projected. There is certainly value to the process and I know I'll do it again for my other two drafts.
I think his QB's are pretty damn good. Brooks could really break out this year, and you really can't go wrong with either Green or Favre as your backup. Solid draft. Moss was the highlight of this draft, coupled with CJ is niiiiice.
