Myth? (5 Viewers)

[Aabye]

I'm currently working on a project I've been wanting to dig into for a few years now, looking in detail, player by player, at drafts from 1994 forward (the first year the NFL went to just 7 rounds) and then how the players' careers progressed, with the objective of answering to my own satisfaction a number of questions for QB, RB, WR, TE.I've long wanted to really understand average career longevity and productivity, fantasy point career curves, bust rates, etc. by round (portion of round for 1st and 2nd rounders) and lots of related questions that fall out of those basics. Value of rookie picks. Improved dynasty rankings. How things have changed over those 17 years given new league rules and improved medicine/training. And many others. Gian's great question above s/b a part of it. Some of you may be familiar with my previous Quality Years Remaining (QYR) stuff, and I've been meaning to revisit and refine this for a few years now. I finally have the time this off season I think. I hope. Not as much going on -- thank you lockout!Whether this ends up an FBG article (or articles) or I just post it here, you'll know when I have something. I won't keep it to myself. I will want the critique so that version 2.0 can be better. In fact now that I think of it, I may just post a request at some point so that folks like my friend Gian and others can tell me what questions they would like this kind of study to answer.Wish me luck. I'm already 20 hours into it and feel like I'm just in the baby stages.

CP,I've been working on something that may touch on a lot of the same stuff. I compiled data for every draft from 1985-2000 in an effort to get a better handle on rookie values and remaining veteran values. I've been hammering away at it for a long time now and I have somewhere in the neighborhood of 225 pages of data, so if you'd like to look any of it over for your own work, just let me know.

 

[Couch Potato]

I'm currently working on a project I've been wanting to dig into for a few years now, looking in detail, player by player, at drafts from 1994 forward (the first year the NFL went to just 7 rounds) and then how the players' careers progressed, with the objective of answering to my own satisfaction a number of questions for QB, RB, WR, TE.I've long wanted to really understand average career longevity and productivity, fantasy point career curves, bust rates, etc. by round (portion of round for 1st and 2nd rounders) and lots of related questions that fall out of those basics. Value of rookie picks. Improved dynasty rankings. How things have changed over those 17 years given new league rules and improved medicine/training. And many others. Gian's great question above s/b a part of it. Some of you may be familiar with my previous Quality Years Remaining (QYR) stuff, and I've been meaning to revisit and refine this for a few years now. I finally have the time this off season I think. I hope. Not as much going on -- thank you lockout!Whether this ends up an FBG article (or articles) or I just post it here, you'll know when I have something. I won't keep it to myself. I will want the critique so that version 2.0 can be better. In fact now that I think of it, I may just post a request at some point so that folks like my friend Gian and others can tell me what questions they would like this kind of study to answer.Wish me luck. I'm already 20 hours into it and feel like I'm just in the baby stages.

CP,I've been working on something that may touch on a lot of the same stuff. I compiled data for every draft from 1985-2000 in an effort to get a better handle on rookie values and remaining veteran values. I've been hammering away at it for a long time now and I have somewhere in the neighborhood of 225 pages of data, so if you'd like to look any of it over for your own work, just let me know.

Big yes to that. PM coming.

 

[blackbird001]

Not to belabor the Forte point, but I think his situation has been mis-stated and marginalized. He was drafted with Benson on the team. Benson to that point had been largely a disappointment and also a dirt-bag of a citizen. Benson was cut in June after another dirt-bag incident, but Chicago did not have to cut him. They cut him because they liked who they had in Forte. Liked his work habits, liked what they saw in OTAs, liked the person. Everything being equal, Forte won that job from Benson. Had Benson not gotten arrested (again), Forte would have won it at sometime that year. Pre-season, regular season, it didn't matter. Chicago did their work on scouting him, selecting him, and were able to save some coin by realizing this and getting rid of Benson.

Kudos to Benson who has finally delivered on some of his pre-draft hype in Cincinnati and staying out of trouble.

As for the larger discussion, I do believe the position is being devalued. Shorter careers, longer season (maybe), more of a committee approach. Even Ingram who was mocked in the top half of the first to nearly everyone nearly fell out of the first round. Fell past all the teams who needed a back. Way too early to tell, but I think the days of 3-4 RBs in the first are gone for awhile.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Chicago did NOT have another RB when they drafted Forte. He was easily the projected starter.

Detroit did NOT have another RB when they drafted K. Smith. He was easily the projected starter.

Slaton got the job when A. Green got injured in preseason, if I'm not mistaken. He would be the only one if that is incorrect.

Chicago has Cedric Benson (they cut him after the draft), they also had the other Adrian Peterson.Detroit also had Rudi Johnson.

Yes Slaton took over for Ahman Green (and held the job).

Now you're creating new parameters.

--Umm, Benson was cut in June. The point is that, heading into the season, he was the clear starter and thus got all the carries he did. He didn't get the carries by outplaying another RB on the team that was designated to be the starter. And lol@the other Adrian Peterson. Like I said, Forte had NO ONE in front of him for carries and thus got the carries.

--The Lions didn't pick up Rudi Johnson until 1 week before the start of the season. He was a Bengal until the final preseason game and then he was cut. Kevin Smith was the starter all along heading into the season. Rudi Johnson was only brought in as a backup. Again, Smith didn't "win" the job from anyone as it was his all along (like Forte)

--I already stated that Slaton took the job only because of injury to Green. I went back and checked and that is indeed the case. In fact, he missed all of the preseason and was almost cut. There was no one else and thus Slaton took the job.

I'm not creating any new parameters. I already said that aside from not having a starting RB ahead of them (neither Forte nor Smith did) or taking over for an injured player (McCoy and Slaton), it did not occur in the players I listed above.

Similarly, the ONLY RB who falls under the category above is Daniel Thomas IF Miami gets rid of Ronnie and Ricky. Best, Beanie/Hightower, Felix, and BJGE are the starters on their teams. They are just as established as Ronnie, Benson, and LenDale were at the time.

Well I thought you went from, no rookies drafted in the second or third were leading rushers for their teams to this new stance that in certain situations it could happen. I'm not going to re-read the thread so maybe, I'm worng about that.Benson was cut in June, but largely because they were happy with having Forte in place (and of course because Benson was a blockhead) - so in some respects he did beat out Benson.

As far as injuries, if you're willing to give veterans the benefit of the doubt there, then why not Hardesty or Tate who very likely were drafted to be the starting backs for their teams since the incumbants (Harrison, Foster, Slaton) has not shown all that much and both teams traded up to get their guy.

Anyway, I'm really not that far off in my stance from what you are saying and agree to a large extent. I think the only "incumbant" back that truly lost out in this draft is Pierre Thomas/Chris Ivory. I just think you undersold some of the vets that were in place in many of the originally mentioned circumstances (F. Taylor, Brown, Dunn and L. Johnson for some examples) and perhaps oversell some of the "incumabants" for this class (is Wells even an incumbant since he never beat out Hightower? or would BJGE or Torain have even got their chances last season if not for injuries to the NE vets and Portis?).

I do think a few backs have opportunities this season, but even the two that I think have the best chance for success (Leaving out Ingram and Thomas [who as of now has no competition]), Williams and Vereen - are going to be in RBBC situations at best imo.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I agree with your overall premise, but still think you need to look at each RB's situation differently. I do disagree with who you are lumping into your "established starter" definition though and that obscures what we can gleam from this. For example:

Guys like McGahee, Larry Johnson, Warrick Dunn, LenDale White, and others were keeping these "high" draft picks on the bench.

LJ, McGahee & Dunn were all studs with numerous years of good performance during their careers before injuries/father time caught up to them. Same thing with Greene vs Jones, Greene vs LT, Henry vs Lendale and you might could argue that for Kevin Jones who was highly thought of after a studly first season. You denegrate some of those "high" draft picks for not being able to take away the jobs from these guys, however, you are discounting the talent levels of those same aging vets because we have seen where they are now in the twilight of their careers. At the time, they may have had some question marks but most were still entrenched veterans with a history of solid to elite production.That is as opposed to unproven/question mark guys like the Wells/Best's/BJGE's we are looking at this year, even if these guys are "established starters." None of those guys have put up elite to even the kind of production in their careers that compares to many of the guys mentioned above, IMO. Felix probably is the closest thing to an established veteran but he is looking like a career RBBC guy.

Good posting. Except that I would put Lendale into the Wells/Best/BJGE category. Henry was just a miss who got reached for based on his workout performance. But then Tennessee hit on a speed a guy not too long after, so...And I think it's a bit of a dangerous shortcut to look at 2nd/3rd round guys who didn't seize the starting gig and conclude that they were not brought in to challenge the starter. The only thing the draft slot tells you for sure is how highly the player was regarded on draft day. Once OTA's and training camps start, performance is going to dictate the share of carries. So the reason a rookie doesn't get many carries isn't because the team didn't expect him to have them, it's because he didn't earn them. I think Beanie is a prime example of this when he was drafted. There's always the "need vs. BTA" philosophy in play, so knowing an individual team's bias can help you read the tea leaves. But that Arizona pick was as near an overlap of both the need and BTA philosophies as you could find. I don't think there's much argument against the belief that Beanie was drafted to be the man in Arizona. And for two years he hasn't earned it. And since opinions vary considerably on Williams as a prospect, I don't see a strong argument that he was a classic BTA pick by the Cards. So I think that does mean the team has some reservations about Beanie and has an expectation of Williams having a role. But, again, that doesn't mean Williams gets a free pass through OTA's and training camp. If he doesn't get the carries, it means he didn't earn them. So while I agree that being a 2nd/3rd round pick doesn't guarantee you a role, I don't think you can take it so far as to say that it doesn't mean you weren't drafted with the expectation of earning it. So, ultimately, when trying to predict what a RB will do when he gets to the NFL, it still boils down to how well you can predict that talent translation from college to the NFL. The draft slot just tells you whether or not the team happened to agree with your assessment when they took that player on draft day.

 

[Matt Waldman]

So, ultimately, when trying to predict what a RB will do when he gets to the NFL, it still boils down to how well you can predict that talent translation from college to the NFL. The draft slot just tells you whether or not the team happened to agree with your assessment when they took that player on draft day.

And "inexact science" is an understatement with their ability to assess talent.

 

[John 14:6]

I think Beanie is a prime example of this when he was drafted. There's always the "need vs. BTA" philosophy in play, so knowing an individual team's bias can help you read the tea leaves. But that Arizona pick was as near an overlap of both the need and BTA philosophies as you could find. I don't think there's much argument against the belief that Beanie was drafted to be the man in Arizona. And for two years he hasn't earned it. And since opinions vary considerably on Williams as a prospect, I don't see a strong argument that he was a classic BTA pick by the Cards. So I think that does mean the team has some reservations about Beanie and has an expectation of Williams having a role.

I wonder if Beanie could break out this year, kind of like how McFadden did last year for Oakland after many considered him to be a bust...

 

[TheFanatic]

The labor issue this year could make Gian's point even more relevant. No OTA's to work on plays from the play books as well as no time working on pass blocking. If this things goes long, there may be a shortened training camp and thus even less time for the kids to work on those things. This will keep the rooks off the field longer than in previous years where they could've been through a minicamp by now and have one coming up and a full TC.

 

[Catbird]

Great OP. Nice supplemental study by Aabye. It seems pretty clear to me that with the exception of 2008 (when there really were an extraordinary number of elite RBs in the rookie pool, so that some slipped to later when everyone with a huge RB need had already drafted one) that 2nd and 3rd round RBs are a horrible risks compared to how shiny they appear to us post-draft. And that they are particularly bad picks for their first season. The list pretty well establishes that none in the last 5 years were their team's lead back unless they faced no significant competition or their competiton gave way due to injury. None.

So does that mean Murray can't become the lead RB in Dallas? Of course not. You always have to take into account the individual situation and the particular players. It just means that the odds in any particular situation are very, very slim of the new guy taking over primary chores.

And that makes good sense because even with comparable talent, the new guy has little preparation for the pro game, its speed, has maybe a handful of times in his career has tried to block anyone with the speed and power of the guys he will now face every down in protection and has never had to consider the defensive sophistication he will face. And the incumbent has already faced all of this, maybe thousands of times in practice and games. The competiton is inherently imbalanced so that the new kid would have to totally dominate in talent to make up for the lack of experience to take the job in year one. And the numbers say that just very, very rarely happens for a 2nd or 3rd round RB.

We all love the shiny new toys, have all seen at great length the failings of Felix, Beanie and Torain and have only seen glory and success so far for Leshoure, Williams and even Helu. Gianmarco just cautions that it will look very, very different for virtually all of the new kids once they start playing games again. Very few if any will be significant this year without competition-free situations. So in grabbing and hoping for 2011 production from a 2nd or 3rd round rookie you might be picking the exception to a pretty consistent general pattern. Or you might just be falling into the more common practice for most (all?) of us in over-valuing less than elite rookie RBs - who we know just ought to replace the slow, stone-handed or visionless incumbent.

 

[ZWK]

One thing to keep in mind is that Ryan Williams was drafted 38th overall this year, and Beanie Wells was taken 31st in 2009. So you could say that Wells has first round pedigree and Williams doesn't, but they were only taken a few picks apart.

 

[replacements]

Good analysis, gianmarco. You obviously put a ton of thought into this, and I largely agree with you.But do you think the labor situation changes your premise at all for this year only? Seems possible that with the normal free-agency routine thrown into chaos, teams may end up leaning on rookies more than they would in a normal year.(Assuming, of course, that we don't see a quick settlement.)

I'd think teams would rely on rookies less, not more. Even an average established vet will be trusted a lot more than a more talented rookie who has not had the requisite offseason time to grasp playbooks, be proficient in pass protection, etc. The known vs. the unknown. If anything, rookies this year will be more delayed in assimilation than in past years.

While I agree with CP that the rookies will be leaned on less. I also think the lack of free agency could push teams to reach for rookies in the draft. I think the qb draft class is a good example of this.But back to rb's. If miami,indy, etc had gotten a hold of deangelo williams do you think daniel thomas,delone carter,go where they go. You also have guys like addai and kevin smith, portis,ronnie brown floating out there. My point is not that any of the above vets are better or worse for the respective teams.Just that these guys should land somewhere, and if they had before the draft, some of these 2nd 3rd and 4th round picks may have been picked in later rounds and there value would be diminished.

 

[FantasyTrader]

5-star post gianmarco. It provided a very detailed context to a longheld belief I've had that, generally speaking, the top 4-5 rookie RB's in any given year can all but be scratched from my redraft cheatsheet. Because all are likely to be drafted in the vicinity of top-tier RB2 to mid-tier RB3. Almost without fail they fall well short of that expectation. Thanks for doing the legwork.

 

[Shutout]

One of the best posts I've read in a while.

Very good read (and more importantly, reminder).

thanks for taking the time to compile it.

Big thumbs up.

 

[hutchins929]

We see this every year. RB values rise and fall based on what teams do in the draft. At times, it's warranted, but at times it is completely overblown. I looked back at just the past 5 years to show some RBs that have been drafted in the dreaded 2nd and 3rd rounds by teams. There are some definite stars there. There are also some monumental wasted picks. But more importantly, the high draft pick doesn't seem to ensure ANYTHING about how the RB will be used right away.

2006

2nd round -- LenDale White, MJD

3rd round -- Brian Calhoun, Jerious Norwood

Discussion -- Travis Henry was still in Tennessee when LenDale was drafted. Henry had 270/1211/7 that year. LenDale had 61 carries. The following year, Henry was traded opening the door for LenDale. The funny thing about that situation is 2007 which I'll get to below. Otherwise, we know how the rest went. As for MJD, he was drafted with Fred Taylor in town. Taylor still had 231/1146/5. That situation is a little unique bc Fred Taylor is a HOF talent and MJD is ultra-talented himself. As good as MJD is, he still didn't get the starting job until year 4 of his career. As for Calhoun, Kevin Jones was still in town but was coming off an injured year. Jones got hurt that year as well and Calhoun, the incredibly high 3rd round draft pick got all of 7 carries. As for Norwood, Atlanta had a 31 yo Warrick Dunn and that's it. As for the incredibly high 3rd round pick Norwood.......well he got all of 99 carries while Dunn had 286 carries. In that year, 4 RBs taken in the 2nd and 3rd round and NONE of the starters were affected by them.

2007

2nd round -- Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, Brian Leonard, Brandon Jackson

3rd round -- Lorenzo Booker, Tony Hunt, Garrett Wolfe

Discussion -- This is a laughable group. Kenny Irons came onto a team with Rudi Johnson and that's it. When Rudi got hurt that year, it was Kenny Watson who came in. I believe Irons was put on IR. As for Chris Henry, he was supposed to take over for the lazy LenDale. The buzz was crazy about how high he was taken. So, despite paying such a high price, he got all of 31 carries, 4th best on the team. The Rams used an incredibly high 2nd round pick on Leonard with S. Jackson in town. No threat. In GB, Brandon Jackson was supposed to be the starter. Ahman Green was gone, they used a 2nd round pick on the guy, and.........he got all of 75 carries As for the others: Booker was drafted on a team with the oft-injured Ronnie Brown. When Ronnie got hurt (again), it was Jesse Chatman who stepped in, not the highly regarded 3rd round pick Booker. Booker, well, he got all of 28 carries that year. Tony Hunt was drafted on a team with Brian Westbrook. He got all of 10 carries and 4 carries his first 2 years. For a 3rd round draft pick? And then there's Garrett Wolfe and his 3rd round draft status which got him 31 carries behind the disappointing Benson that year and even less with 15 carries the following year.

2008

2nd round -- Forte, Ray Rice

3rd round -- Kevin Smith, Jacob Hester, Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton

Discussion -- This was obviously a very strong year for RBs where they were drafted. Forte was drafted on a team that had cut bait with Benson and he was coming in as the starter. It's not a surprise he got the number of carries he did. Ray Rice came onto a team with McGahee as the starter. As good as Rice is and considering his high draft pick, he got all of 107 carries as a rookie. Kevin Smith similarly to Forte was drafted as the starter on the team as they had no one else. No surprise he got the bulk of the carries. Hester was drafted as a FB using a "high" 3rd round pick. Charles was drafted on a team with Larry Johnson. Despite being the superior talent and outplaying LJ significantly, Charles got only 67 carries as a rookie while LJ had ~200 carries. Slaton was drafted onto a team with 31 year old Ahman Green as the starter. Slaton took the job and ran away with it.

Out of the above, Forte, Smith, and Slaton got a huge workload. But, only Slaton came onto a team with another "starter" and it was an old, injured A. Green that he took it from. The best talents there (Charles and Rice) still ended up sitting behind lesser starters and didn't displace them. So, only 1 starter lost his job to a 2nd/3rd round RB pick here.

2009

2nd -- LeSean McCoy

3rd -- Shonne Greene, Glen Coffee

Discussion -- McCoy was drafted onto a team with only Westbrook as a starter and was the heir apparent. When Westbrook went down, McCoy got the job. He managed 155 carries that year. Shonne Greene was drafted onto a team with Thomas Jones as the starter. Jones had 331 carries at the age of 31 and Greene only got 108. The following year, Jones left and LT came in. LT still ended up being the main ball carrier with 219 carries. Coffee was picked on the same team with Gore. He managed 83 carries his rookie season.

Out of this small group, only McCoy displaced the starter and it was due to injury.

2010

2nd round -- Toby Gerhart, Ben Tate, Montario Hardesty

Discussion -- Gerhart was drafted on a team with AP. Yes, Minnesota used a SECOND ROUND PICK on a RB when they had AP on the team. Not surprisingly, Gerhart only got 81 carries. Tate and Hardesty both got hurt.

So, what does this all mean? First of all, I think the value of 2nd and 3rd round picks and how teams use them is VERY overstated. They've been used on RBs like Gerhart, Hester, Booker, Wolfe, and Calhoun to name a few. These guys were never slated to be starters or main ball carriers. In other words, just because a team takes a RB in the 2nd round or 3rd round doesn't mean that they intend on using them as major players. Second of all, even if the guys are talented and ARE intended to be used as starters at some point in the team's future, it rarely happens in their first year and the incumbent starters have retained their jobs the vast majority of the time. And it's not as if we're talking about all-world starters that are keeping these guys on the bench. Guys like McGahee, Larry Johnson, Warrick Dunn, LenDale White, and others were keeping these "high" draft picks on the bench.

Out of those 5 years, only TWO RBs that were supposed to be the starter lost their jobs to a 2nd/3rd round RB. Ahman Green and Brian Westbrook. And on both occasions, they lost their job due to injury. The only other way one of those RBs drafted above got the job was when they were specifically drafted as the starter (Kevin Smith and Forte)

Why did I post this? Well, every year we get enamored with the new shiny toys. And every year there's this speculation how these guys are going to come in and take the starting job. The reality is that it just doesn't happen.

So let's look at 2011:

2nd round: Ryan William, Mikel LeShoure, Shane Vereen, Daniel Thomas

3rd round: DeMarco Murray, Steven Ridley, Alex Green

Discussion: With the exception of Thomas (if Brown and Ricky leave), all of those RBs are going onto team with established starters. Now, you guys may not think much of these starters (Beanie, Felix, BJGE, Grant/Starks, Best), but they don't necessarily need to be anything special based on the history of the last 5 years. There's already all this talk how Murray will be the guy in Dallas and Williams is putting Beanie on the bench and Best will now be the COP guy.

While I'm not saying these guys will never amount to anything (which I'm not), I just want to warn some of you that might have these lofty expectations that these guys will come in and take jobs right away. Similarly, owners of Beanie, Felix, Best, and even BJGE or the GB guys don't need to panic just yet. Eventually the best player is going to be the one that ends up with the most carries in the long run (most of the time). But in that 1st year, even the better players often take a backseat. Most importantly, these guys aren't going to be given anything just because a team used a "high" draft pick in the 2nd or 3rd round on these guys. History over the last 5 years shows that teams simply don't use that as a measure to how much playing time a RB should get. In fact, it looks to be completely irrelevant unless the RB is coming onto a team without a starter and they were drafted to actually be the starter. The ONLY guy that seems to be the case for this year is Daniel Thomas and that's only based on the speculation that Ronnie and Ricky are gone.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I think Beanie is a prime example of this when he was drafted. There's always the "need vs. BTA" philosophy in play, so knowing an individual team's bias can help you read the tea leaves. But that Arizona pick was as near an overlap of both the need and BTA philosophies as you could find. I don't think there's much argument against the belief that Beanie was drafted to be the man in Arizona. And for two years he hasn't earned it. And since opinions vary considerably on Williams as a prospect, I don't see a strong argument that he was a classic BTA pick by the Cards. So I think that does mean the team has some reservations about Beanie and has an expectation of Williams having a role.

I wonder if Beanie could break out this year, kind of like how McFadden did last year for Oakland after many considered him to be a bust...

Yes, he could. I'm betting against it, so I bought Williams in a recent rookie auction for that reason. But I readily admit it's possible. I agree with Gianmarco to the extent that being drafted in the 2nd and 3rd doesn't mean you will get lead back carries. But I don't think you get drafted that high unless the team thinks you have that potential and is hoping you pan out. If you don't get them, I believe it's because you didn't earn them, not because you weren't given the opportunity. I don't think you can you use hindsight to look at how things turned out for these other RB's in past drafts and assume that things turned out for those RB's just like the front offices thought they would. Front offices miss on players all the time in all rounds of the draft. I suspect that a team that drafts a RB in the 1st and 2nd and probably 3rd is disappointed if that back doesn't earn a starting gig for them at some point early in his career.

 

[ebaughn]

Should we also consider that RB is devalued because of the surplus of talented RB's in the league, timeshares, and overall perception that NFL is more of a passing league. Then maybe some guys this year (Leshoure & Williams) would have been first round picks a couple years ago. I think both of the guys are actually first round talents.

 

[beto]

I look at this list and the main thing that jumps out at me is pre-draft evaluation. Of the guys who have had success, only MJD came out of nowhere for me (but he really shouldn't have). Most of the guys who had success were probably top 2 or 3 backs on your lists pre-draft (McCoy, Rice). For the rest, did anybody really expect them to become stud feature backs?

2006

2nd round -- LenDale White, MJD

3rd round -- Brian Calhoun, Jerious Norwood

2007

2nd round -- Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, Brian Leonard, Brandon Jackson

3rd round -- Lorenzo Booker, Tony Hunt, Garrett Wolfe

2008

2nd round -- Forte, Ray Rice

3rd round -- Kevin Smith, Jacob Hester, Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton

2009

2nd -- LeSean McCoy

3rd -- Shonne Greene, Glen Coffee

2010

2nd round -- Toby Gerhart, Ben Tate, Montario Hardesty

 

[Aabye]

2006

2nd round -- LenDale White, MJD

3rd round -- Brian Calhoun, Jerious Norwood

2007

2nd round -- Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, Brian Leonard, Brandon Jackson

3rd round -- Lorenzo Booker, Tony Hunt, Garrett Wolfe

2008

2nd round -- Forte, Ray Rice

3rd round -- Kevin Smith, Jacob Hester, Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton

2009

2nd -- LeSean McCoy

3rd -- Shonne Greene, Glen Coffee

2010

2nd round -- Toby Gerhart, Ben Tate, Montario Hardesty

I look at this list and the main thing that jumps out at me is pre-draft evaluation. Of the guys who have had success, only MJD came out of nowhere for me (but he really shouldn't have). Most of the guys who had success were probably top 2 or 3 backs on your lists pre-draft (McCoy, Rice). For the rest, did anybody really expect them to become stud feature backs?

I don't think that most people had either McCoy or Rice that high. McCoy was probably seen as RB4 in 2009 behind Moreno, Wells, and Brown. In my main dynasty league in 2008, Rice went off the board at 1.08, behind 7 other RBs. In any case, Rice was certainly behind McFadden, Stewart, and Mendenhall and in a mix with Forte, Jones, and Johnson (and maybe Smith too).That seems completely in line with the other 2nd and 3rd round RBs. There are some notable exceptions like Coffee, Leonard, Hester, and Gerhart, but I seem to remember a lot of the guys on that list getting as much predraft hype as MJD, McCoy, or Rice.

But it's also hard to remember what I thought other people thought of these guys 4 years ago, so I may be mistaken.

 

[beto]

What I meant by pre-draft evaluation is personal rankings, not consensus rankings. There are a lot of guys on this board who watch college football and do their own scouting, then the trick is to figure out if the guy translates. McCoy was #1 or #2 on a lot of boards until he underwhelmed at the combine. If you watched Rice you saw an Emmitt like runner who was probably 3rd or 4th rated on a lot of boards prior to the draft (maybe second or third on those who didn't like McFadden's make up). I know we talk about this in the weeks leading up to the draft, but I think it applies to this topic.edit - I guess I'm a little of topic as the OP talks about the myth that the 2nd/3rd rounders are projected to start right away. I agree with that, but I do feel that cream will rise to the top and we should be able to sort that out prior to dynasty rookie drafts.

I don't think that most people had either McCoy or Rice that high. McCoy was probably seen as RB4 in 2009 behind Moreno, Wells, and Brown. In my main dynasty league in 2008, Rice went off the board at 1.08, behind 7 other RBs. In any case, Rice was certainly behind McFadden, Stewart, and Mendenhall and in a mix with Forte, Jones, and Johnson (and maybe Smith too).That seems completely in line with the other 2nd and 3rd round RBs. There are some notable exceptions like Coffee, Leonard, Hester, and Gerhart, but I seem to remember a lot of the guys on that list getting as much predraft hype as MJD, McCoy, or Rice.But it's also hard to remember what I thought other people thought of these guys 4 years ago, so I may be mistaken.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Thanks to gianmarco for bringing this to my attention - it is indeed a very good posting.

I will bring up a few points - RBBC started in 2006 really (Colts vs. Bears in Super Bowl), and with both those teams getting there the NFL copycat effect was on. That said, I believe Frank Gore was a third round pick and he came in and beat out a meager Kevan Barlow to lead the team in rushing in his rookie season. Not sure I'm remembering it exactly, but I think it is worth a mention.

The main point I want to raise is this - many are using the "Round 1 vs. Round 2 or 3" argument as an indictment against rookie RBs. Round 1s are worth more than Round 2s or 3s, or so the informal study seems to support.

Once again, the big picture / freakanomics view to me begs me to ask a different question - is there a reason why RBs are not worth a first round pick these days?

The economics of the NFL demands more money up front to rookies right out of school. Sam Bradford was immensely overpaid once he inked his deal. So, the question many NFL franchises - owners, GMs and coaches - were forced to ask was which positions are worth a big contract? Running backs don't last that long, they tend to be easier to find via free agency or later in a draft (or even as UDFAs), and in the RBBC era there is a solid argument in saying that overpayment towards a feature RB is a bad idea. That concept was masked with the removal of a salary cap last season, but the big signing bonuses are still in place. NFL teams don't want to invest big money up front to guys who won't be a big part of their franchise for many years to come, nor do they want to pony up a big check to position players that can be (or appear to be) easy to replace by non-draft means.

Look no further than last year and compare the signing bonus / guaranteed money to Jahvid Best (barely a first rounder) and three Round 2 RBs:

1.30 - Jahvid Best, RB, Cal - Signed - 5-years, $9.8M/$12.7M max ($7.095M guaranteed)

2.58 - Ben Tate, RB, Auburn - Signed - 4-years, $3.337M ($1.58M guaranteed)

2.51 - Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford - Signed - 4-years, $3.767M ($1.939M guaranteed)

2.59 - Montario Hardesty, RB, Tennessee - Signed - 4-years, $3.372M ($1.567M guaranteed)

Forget position, here is the first pick of Round 2 last year:

2.33 - Rodger Saffold, OT, Indiana - Signed - 4-years, $6.3M (~$3.9M guaranteed)

The difference between a first round RB and a second round RB is at least 2x their guaranteed money - and likely more. Best got over $7M last year because he was picked 30th, while he likely would have had about half that if he was 33rd.

Economics dictate running backs to be pushed down and out of the first round - which is a reflection not about their talent as much as it is that other positions are worth far more to an organization.

 

[werdnoynek]

be patient on the 2nd n 3rd rounders. They might take 1 year to steal the carries. Good job

if you expect a starter with a 2nd/3rd rounder right out of the gates you're dreaming. dynasty play is all about these guys. grab and stash. nothing surprising here, but i agree people needed to see this.

 

[Andrew Garda]

GREAT Post. And great discussion.

I had a point and then forgot it midway through the thread...

Otherwise as has been mentioned, keeping context in... well, IN context.... is key. A lot of people assume that 2nd/3rd round pick is a threat but it totally depends on situation. I'm ok (in Dynasty) with taking a rookie I like early, even if he's on the bench for a while. But too many owners get caught up in the hype and disappointed early on.

 

[Andrew Garda]

I look at this list and the main thing that jumps out at me is pre-draft evaluation. Of the guys who have had success, only MJD came out of nowhere for me (but he really shouldn't have). Most of the guys who had success were probably top 2 or 3 backs on your lists pre-draft (McCoy, Rice). For the rest, did anybody really expect them to become stud feature backs?

2006

2nd round -- LenDale White, MJD

3rd round -- Brian Calhoun, Jerious Norwood

2007

2nd round -- Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, Brian Leonard, Brandon Jackson

3rd round -- Lorenzo Booker, Tony Hunt, Garrett Wolfe

2008

2nd round -- Forte, Ray Rice

3rd round -- Kevin Smith, Jacob Hester, Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton

2009

2nd -- LeSean McCoy

3rd -- Shonne Greene, Glen Coffee

2010

2nd round -- Toby Gerhart, Ben Tate, Montario Hardesty

MJD came out of nowhere because UCLA sucked badly and nationally nobody knew what he could do. Size was a concern as well - and remember MJD is kind of the guy who really started changing that.But otherwise, good points.

 

[gianmarco]

Not looking good for Daniel Thomas this year either......

 

[thriftyrocker]

Not looking good for Daniel Thomas this year either......

Still a slightly better situation than Leshoure, but ultimately not much different. It's muuuuch better than Bradshaw going to Miami, that is for sure.

 

[gianmarco]

Not looking good for Daniel Thomas this year either......

Still a slightly better situation than Leshoure, but ultimately not much different. It's muuuuch better than Bradshaw going to Miami, that is for sure.

Don't think it's that much different in the short-term. We'll see as this will be an interesting situation to watch....

 

[GregR_2]

Excellent, excellent thread. I'd been thinking of starting something like this about how rookie RBs are overvalued, with a focus on Derrick Ward vs Ben Tate. I doubt I'd have done anything this in depth on the topic though so glad you did it.

I think too many of us often get excited about the shiny new toy and don't take previous success in the NFL into account nearly enough. In the Texans case, I fully expect Ward will be the main RB2 in Houston unless he gets injured or Tate shows himself to be the next Earl Campbell... that is, something far beyond what any of us think he really is if he was drafted in the 2nd round.

 

[TheFanatic]

Not looking good for Daniel Thomas this year either......

I disagree. Bush's new contract is not starter money. I think the best possible RB that Miami could've brought in to improve Thomas' situation was Bush. Well, maybe Sproles. But I seriously doubt they try to give Bush the full load and watch him break down again like NO did so many times to justify the fat contract. Had Miami brought in just about anyone else (DWill, BRadshaw, etc) then I would be worried. But not Reggie.

 

[pinequick]

Excellent, excellent thread. I'd been thinking of starting something like this about how rookie RBs are overvalued, with a focus on Derrick Ward vs Ben Tate. I doubt I'd have done anything this in depth on the topic though so glad you did it.

I think too many of us often get excited about the shiny new toy and don't take previous success in the NFL into account nearly enough. In the Texans case, I fully expect Ward will be the main RB2 in Houston unless he gets injured or Tate shows himself to be the next Earl Campbell... that is, something far beyond what any of us think he really is if he was drafted in the 2nd round.

Feel like I got smarter for reading it. Thanks.

 

[gianmarco]

Not surprising here:

Coach Ken Whisenhunt indicated that Beanie Wells is the clear starter in the Cardinals backfield following the Tim Hightower trade."To say this is a make or break season is a little premature," said Whiz. "But this is what he wanted. Clearly he's the guy." It doesn't get more clean-cut than that. As we suspected, Wells will take over as the lead back with rookie Ryan Williams as the passing-down specialist. As long as his knee is 100 percent, Wells absolutely has the talent to keep the job on early downs. He's a high-upside RB2 in standard scoring leagues following this news.

 

[AmosMoses]

be patient on the first rounders toocopy/paste from another thread:IND spent a first round pick on Joseph Addai and didn't he become the man right away?NE spent a first round pick on Laurence Maroney and didn't he become the man right away?NO spent a first round pick on Deuce McAllister and didn't he become the man right away?AZ spent a first round pick on Beanie Wells and didn't he become the man right away?ATL spent a first round pick on TJ Duckett and didn't he become the man right away?STL spent a first round pick on Steven Jackson and didn't he become the man right away?CAR spent a first round pick on DeAngelo Williams and didn't he become the man right away?CHI spent a first round pick on Cedric Benson and didn't he become the man right away?SD spent (traded up to) a first round pick on Ryan Mathews and didn't he become the man right away?CAR spent a first round pick on Jonathan Stewart and didn't he become the man right away?DAL spent a first round pick on Felix Jones and didn't he become the man right away?NO spent a first round pick on Reggie Bush and didn't he become the man right away?PIT spent a first round pick on Rashard Mendenhall and didn't he become the man right away?SEA spent a first round pick on Shaun Alexander and didn't he become the man right away?OAK spent a first round pick on Darren McFadden and didn't he become the man right away?STL spent a first round pick on Trung Candidate and didn't he become the man right away?CLE spent a first round pick on William Green and didn't he become the man right away?AZ spent a first round pick on Thomas Jones and didn't he become the man right away?MIA spent a first round pick on Ronnie Brown and didn't he become the man right away?BUF spent a first round pick on CJ Spiller and didn't he become the man right away?NYG spent a first round pick on Ron Dayne and didn't he become the man right away?BAL spent a first round pick on WIllis McGahee (and his one heathy leg) and didn't he become the man right away?IND spent a first round pick on Donald Brown and didn't he become the man right away?CIN spent a first round pick on Chris Perry and didn't he become the man right away?KC spent a first round pick on Larry Johnson and didn't he become the man right away?don't know whether Knowshon Moreno or Michael Bennett were the sole RB for their team that produced fantasy stats, but i can think of 8 since 2000 that basically were ... LT, ADP, Kevin Jones, Jamal Lewis, Lynch, Caddy, CJohnson, Best (and he lasted one year as "The Man")

If you start at this post long enough, it turns into a flock of geese.

 

[Lash]

be patient on the first rounders toocopy/paste from another thread:IND spent a first round pick on Joseph Addai and didn't he become the man right away?NE spent a first round pick on Laurence Maroney and didn't he become the man right away?NO spent a first round pick on Deuce McAllister and didn't he become the man right away?AZ spent a first round pick on Beanie Wells and didn't he become the man right away?ATL spent a first round pick on TJ Duckett and didn't he become the man right away?STL spent a first round pick on Steven Jackson and didn't he become the man right away?CAR spent a first round pick on DeAngelo Williams and didn't he become the man right away?CHI spent a first round pick on Cedric Benson and didn't he become the man right away?SD spent (traded up to) a first round pick on Ryan Mathews and didn't he become the man right away?CAR spent a first round pick on Jonathan Stewart and didn't he become the man right away?DAL spent a first round pick on Felix Jones and didn't he become the man right away?NO spent a first round pick on Reggie Bush and didn't he become the man right away?PIT spent a first round pick on Rashard Mendenhall and didn't he become the man right away?SEA spent a first round pick on Shaun Alexander and didn't he become the man right away?OAK spent a first round pick on Darren McFadden and didn't he become the man right away?STL spent a first round pick on Trung Candidate and didn't he become the man right away?CLE spent a first round pick on William Green and didn't he become the man right away?AZ spent a first round pick on Thomas Jones and didn't he become the man right away?MIA spent a first round pick on Ronnie Brown and didn't he become the man right away?BUF spent a first round pick on CJ Spiller and didn't he become the man right away?NYG spent a first round pick on Ron Dayne and didn't he become the man right away?BAL spent a first round pick on WIllis McGahee (and his one heathy leg) and didn't he become the man right away?IND spent a first round pick on Donald Brown and didn't he become the man right away?CIN spent a first round pick on Chris Perry and didn't he become the man right away?KC spent a first round pick on Larry Johnson and didn't he become the man right away?don't know whether Knowshon Moreno or Michael Bennett were the sole RB for their team that produced fantasy stats, but i can think of 8 since 2000 that basically were ... LT, ADP, Kevin Jones, Jamal Lewis, Lynch, Caddy, CJohnson, Best (and he lasted one year as "The Man")

If you start at this post long enough, it turns into a flock of geese.

touche(and i guess Best will go another year as the man)

 

[Ocram]

Not looking good for Daniel Thomas this year either......

I disagree. Bush's new contract is not starter money. I think the best possible RB that Miami could've brought in to improve Thomas' situation was Bush. Well, maybe Sproles. But I seriously doubt they try to give Bush the full load and watch him break down again like NO did so many times to justify the fat contract. Had Miami brought in just about anyone else (DWill, BRadshaw, etc) then I would be worried. But not Reggie.

Looks like it's happening here too.

When asked about Reggie Bush Tuesday, coach Tony Sparano said, "I would think he's going to have the most touches and the most carries."

 

[gianmarco]

Unfortunately, injuries hurt a couple of these guys. That said, it happened even with Daniel Thomas with Bush coming in ahead of him. Murray took over midseason and looked fantastic but was really only given that chance due to an injury to Felix. He only had a total of 14 carries through the first 4 games and didn't get significant work until Felix went down. The NE situation does support the above. Even though he's outplayed BJGE, Ridley has still taken a backseat and Vereen has barely seen the field (some due to injury, but other times just because he just isn't ready yet).

I guess we can look at this again next year.

 

[gianmarco]

A quick bump of this now to bring this up before the draft and we can look at it again after the draft in a few weeks. Unfortunate that a couple of the guys suffered season ending injuries early on. Hopefully the same doesn't happen this year.

 

[Sabertooth]

 

[gianmarco]

The 2nd and 3rd round picks from 2012 draft:Isaiah PeadLaMichael JamesRonnie HillmanBernard PierceMore of the same. Of course, 3 of the 4 came in with established starters, but the point remains that just because a team uses a "high" pick on these guys doesn't guarantee anything.

 

[DropKick]

The 2nd and 3rd round picks from 2012 draft:Isaiah PeadLaMichael JamesRonnie HillmanBernard PierceMore of the same. Of course, 3 of the 4 came in with established starters, but the point remains that just because a team uses a "high" pick on these guys doesn't guarantee anything.

I didn't expect a rookie to displace Steven Jackson, Frank Gore or Ray Rice. There's always a learning curve in the NFL. If you're talking about the value of rookie draft picks, I assume you're talking about deep keeper or dynasty leagues. I'm not drafting rookies for the current season in those formats. I'm looking forward a little... Of course, the value of a player is a combination of talent, opportunity and supporting cast and that all goes into the equation. Wilson was the last pick in the first round last year; not quite a second rounder. I didn't expect him to displace Bradshaw immediately - but I like his chances in the long run. Injuries and time catch up with everybody. You have to invest an early pick... and why not? I guess I'm just missing your point, when has anything ever been guaranteed in the NFL?

 

[FF Ninja]

I think his point is that these guys are almost always overdrafted. Most notably in redrafts.

 

[beto]

The 2nd and 3rd round picks from 2012 draft:Isaiah PeadLaMichael JamesRonnie HillmanBernard PierceMore of the same. Of course, 3 of the 4 came in with established starters, but the point remains that just because a team uses a "high" pick on these guys doesn't guarantee anything.

I'm looking forward a little... Of course, the value of a player is a combination of talent, opportunity and supporting cast and that all goes into the equation. Wilson was the last pick in the first round last year; not quite a second rounder. I didn't expect him to displace Bradshaw immediately - but I like his chances in the long run. Injuries and time catch up with everybody. You have to invest an early pick... and why not?

I like your point about investing an early pick. Those of us who made mid and late first round picks have to make the decision of RB4/5 vs. WR3/4 vs. TE1/2. Evaluation is key.The good thing about having a guy you evaluate highly getting drafted by a team with an established starter is that you can get them later in the draft. I'm happy to have Lamichael and Pierce on my teams after what they showed this year. Wilson is a special case because he did go in the first round and was a top 5 or 6 pick in most rookie drafts.

 

[DropKick]

The 2nd and 3rd round picks from 2012 draft:Isaiah PeadLaMichael JamesRonnie HillmanBernard PierceMore of the same. Of course, 3 of the 4 came in with established starters, but the point remains that just because a team uses a "high" pick on these guys doesn't guarantee anything.

I'm looking forward a little... Of course, the value of a player is a combination of talent, opportunity and supporting cast and that all goes into the equation. Wilson was the last pick in the first round last year; not quite a second rounder. I didn't expect him to displace Bradshaw immediately - but I like his chances in the long run. Injuries and time catch up with everybody. You have to invest an early pick... and why not?

I like your point about investing an early pick. Those of us who made mid and late first round picks have to make the decision of RB4/5 vs. WR3/4 vs. TE1/2. Evaluation is key.The good thing about having a guy you evaluate highly getting drafted by a team with an established starter is that you can get them later in the draft. I'm happy to have Lamichael and Pierce on my teams after what they showed this year. Wilson is a special case because he did go in the first round and was a top 5 or 6 pick in most rookie drafts.

The draft isn't an exact science but draft position says something about the perceived talent of the player and also about the needs of the team. Perhaps they need an heir apparent or just depth or maybe even a punt returner. With more and more committees, even a complementary back (like Pierce) can be valuable now and provide long term upside. He seems like a great fit in Baltimore and, although Rice has been terrific, things can change quickly in the NFL.Hillman doesn't have a lot in front of him as McGahee/Moreno have age/injury concerns; James, a smaller back, may find a niche in San Francisco, especially with the Hunter injury; and the opportunity was ripe for Pead - but he was outplayed by another back.No guarantees but you can't wait either...

 

[gianmarco]

A quick recap of 2013:

2nd rounders:

Gio Bernard: Came in behind BJGE and earned 170 carries to BJGE's 220 carries

L Bell: Drafted to be the starter and finished with 244 carries

Montee Ball: Came in behind Moreno and finished with 120 carries

Eddie Lacy: Drafted to be the starter and finished with 284 carries

C. Michael: Came in behind Lynch, finished with 18 carries

3rd rounders:

K. Davis: Came in behind Charles and finished with 70 carries.

Gio was the one guy not expected to be the starter that made a significant contribution behind an established RB. Otherwise, nothing really surprising here other than a higher than normal # of RBs expected to start as rookies. However, given the fact that no RBs went in the 1st round, it's not that much of a stretch.

This year's crop:

2nd rounders:

Sankey

Hyde

Hill

3rd rounders:

Sims

Mason

Archer

McKinnon

West

Would be wise to mostly temper expectations from this crop.

 

[Sabertooth]

I agree. I have 2 and 5 picks. Both will probably be wideouts.

 

[gianmarco]

A quick recap of 2013:

2nd rounders:

Gio Bernard: Came in behind BJGE and earned 170 carries to BJGE's 220 carries

L Bell: Drafted to be the starter and finished with 244 carries

Montee Ball: Came in behind Moreno and finished with 120 carries

Eddie Lacy: Drafted to be the starter and finished with 284 carries

C. Michael: Came in behind Lynch, finished with 18 carries

3rd rounders:

K. Davis: Came in behind Charles and finished with 70 carries.

Gio was the one guy not expected to be the starter that made a significant contribution behind an established RB. Otherwise, nothing really surprising here other than a higher than normal # of RBs expected to start as rookies. However, given the fact that no RBs went in the 1st round, it's not that much of a stretch.

This year's crop:

2nd rounders:

Sankey

Hyde

Hill

3rd rounders:

Sims

Mason

Archer

McKinnon

West

Would be wise to mostly temper expectations from this crop.

Some interesting stuff this past year between suspensions and changing landscapes. West was really the only guy who got a shot early (and lost it). Both Mason and Hill supplanted rookies from the year before. McKinnon got work due to the AP suspension. Sankey played 2nd fiddle most of the year despite getting some work from the start.

Will be interesting to see where RBs go this year in terms of draft position and teams as the entire landscape is undergoing a major change.

 

[Borden]

After years of realized projections, analysis and hind sight what are some of your learned lessons? For you personally not just general thread notes.

 

[cstu]

Top 20 dynasty RB's from March 2014 ADP. Number next to the name have dropped more than 20 spots in the Feb 2015 ADP:

Rank Pos Player Age ADP Mock1 Mock2 Mock3 Mock4 Mock5 Mock6

1 RB LeSean McCoy 26 3.50 1 1 8 3 6 2

2 RB Jamaal Charles 28 6.30 6 2 10 6 11 3

3 RB Eddie Lacy 24 12.20 9 15 12 12 12 13

4 RB Doug Martin(29) 25 13.20 15 11 11 13 14 15

5 RB Le'Veon Bell 22 15.80 12 10 20 18 15 20

6 RB A. Peterson 29 16.30 16 7 27 23 19 6

7 RB Matt Forte 29 23.30 17 18 21 33 30 21

8 RB DeMarco Murray 26 24.50 23 24 36 20 21 23

9 RB Zac Stacy(96) 23 28.70 32 28 35 24 26 27

10 RB CJ Spiller(38) 27 32.00 33 29 28 42 36 24

11 RB Marshawn Lynch 28 34.50 19 26 48 47 48 19

12 RB S. Vereen(35) 25 41.70 43 32 31 50 52 42

13 RB Alfred Morris 26 41.70 24 59 47 44 44 32

14 RB M. Ball(53) 24 45.00 48 45 49 25 47 56

15 RB L. Blount(62) 28 48.30 35 56 46 41 55 57

16 RB A. Ellington 25 51.70 64 47 54 52 56 37

17 RB T. Rich(76) 24 56.00 53 54 76 49 46 58

18 RB C. Michael 24 60.50 62 61 56 56 66 62

19 RB Arian Foster 28 60.80 67 69 44 101 54 30

20 RB R. Bush(57) 29 62.50 52 84 57 65 69 48

 

[Sabertooth]

This year it will be interesting to see where the first running back is selected. There have been a few great backs selected in the second round the past two seasons the certainly warranted first round picks. If Gordon and Gurley slide, I think we can assume that the second round is the new first round for running backs.

 

[TheFanatic]

This year it will be interesting to see where the first running back is selected. There have been a few great backs selected in the second round the past two seasons the certainly warranted first round picks. If Gordon and Gurley slide, I think we can assume that the second round is the new first round for running backs.

Amen...

 

[Shutout]

In today's NFL, it is hard to get excited/trust any RB in a dynasty format. It's just a disposable position.

Look at last year's #1 dynasty prospect in Shady. He was 25 years old and in a prime position of having youth, yet having been in the league long enough to prove something and prove it well. Now, just one year later, he comes off a good season (but one we FFers find largely disappointing) and there is speculation he may be asked to restructure his deal or, in an extreme case, be released.

There simply is no longevity to the position now due to one reason or another. One can argue that literally half of the top 10 best "knowns" at the position are all 27 or over and probably only make the "known" list because they are the last backs from the dying system. Once Charles, Foster, Peterson, Forte, and Lynch are gone, that's it...there won't be any more huge RB contracts with teams building around a rb for 5-8 years.

It is now a position with a clear 3-4 year window and a short hook. If you're goo, you'll get heavy use and 3-4 years and let someone else be on the line for that big deal you want. They can take your mileage and the team will go looking for a 22 year old version of you. RBs don't get the chance to show what makes them special anymore in the sense of being able to be featured for 6-9 years on the same team, in the same environment.

 

[TheFanatic]

In today's NFL, it is hard to get excited/trust any RB in a dynasty format. It's just a disposable position.

Look at last year's #1 dynasty prospect in Shady. He was 25 years old and in a prime position of having youth, yet having been in the league long enough to prove something and prove it well. Now, just one year later, he comes off a good season (but one we FFers find largely disappointing) and there is speculation he may be asked to restructure his deal or, in an extreme case, be released.

There simply is no longevity to the position now due to one reason or another. One can argue that literally half of the top 10 best "knowns" at the position are all 27 or over and probably only make the "known" list because they are the last backs from the dying system. Once Charles, Foster, Peterson, Forte, and Lynch are gone, that's it...there won't be any more huge RB contracts with teams building around a rb for 5-8 years.

It is now a position with a clear 3-4 year window and a short hook. If you're goo, you'll get heavy use and 3-4 years and let someone else be on the line for that big deal you want. They can take your mileage and the team will go looking for a 22 year old version of you. RBs don't get the chance to show what makes them special anymore in the sense of being able to be featured for 6-9 years on the same team, in the same environment.

This is why I'm trying to move my main league away from the mandatory start 2 RB system. It's just not feasible not at all representative of the NFL. Needs to be 1 RB, 3 WR and a flex or two....