Necessity of avoiding Shark Pool hype (1 Viewer)

[Portis 26]

Economists talk about the dangers of stock markets reacting with over-exuberance. Essentially, that the markets over-respond to small pieces of information and stock rises and falls excessively compared to its real value.

We saw this in fantasy terms recently with the stock of Holt, Portis and Moss.

These are all fantastic players who have put up historically very high numbers.

Yet their stock fell too much because of the over-exuberance of the market, ie the Shark Pool.

The smart owner should not over-respond to information.

Thoughts?

 

[Darth Cheney]

The Shark Pool is actually like a giant fishing trawler. It's a giant net that sucks everything up......some of it very good.... and some of it ####. You just need to know what is what.

 

[bostonfred]

It's week one.

 

[lebowski66]

Economists talk about the dangers of stock markets reacting with over-exuberance. Essentially, that the markets over-respond to small pieces of information and stock rises and falls excessively compared to its real value.We saw this in fantasy terms recently with the stock of Holt, Portis and Moss.These are all fantastic players who have put up historically very high numbers.Yet their stock fell too much because of the over-exuberance of the market, ie the Shark Pool.The smart owner should not over-respond to information.Thoughts?

Information helps, but you still need to go with your gut and who you feel will bust out this year. Portis, and recently Holt have had injury concerns. Moss was awful last year, but is obviously in a better situation. We're only 2 hours into the season.

 

[SpecOpLoad]

I started Deuce OVER Portis...I believed the hype and am ashamed!!!

 

[EBF]

I don't think Portis was a good value pick. His offense is horrible and he's splitting carries with Betts right down the middle. He doesn't look like he's going to be a great option this year.

As for Holt and Moss, I think everyone would've been high on them if we knew they were 100% healthy. No one doubts that those guys are dynamite. The only issue was whether or not they'd be full speed.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

After the last several years, putting Randy Moss into the same broad generalization with Torry Holt is misleading. Sure he has performed well "historically", but he's pretty much sucked for 3 years now. People were not downgrading Moss due to injury so much as other factors.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

I don't think Portis was a good value pick. His offense is horrible and he's splitting carries with Betts right down the middle. He doesn't look like he's going to be a great option this year.

 

[Tom Baker]

Add Lynch as well . . .

 

[bostonfred]

I don't think Portis was a good value pick. His offense is horrible and he's splitting carries with Betts right down the middle. He doesn't look like he's going to be a great option this year.

Have you changed your mind since you wrote this? How do you feel about Maroney?

 

[EBF]

I don't think Portis was a good value pick. His offense is horrible and he's splitting carries with Betts right down the middle. He doesn't look like he's going to be a great option this year.

Have you changed your mind since you wrote this?

No. The Redskins squeaked out a win over one of the worst teams in the league. What will happen when they're playing catch up or when Portis doesn't have the benefit of the extra quarter? Don't get me wrong, he's not a bad player, but he's not an elite FF back either. Toto, we're not in Denver anymore.

How do you feel about Maroney?

Good back on a great offense. He should have a productive year. I see him falling somewhere in the RB6-12 range if he stays healthy.

 

[Darth Cheney]

I get a nice chuckle everytime I read a "Torry Holt-- his poop is green, should I sell now?" like thread.

 

[bostonfred]

I don't think Portis was a good value pick. His offense is horrible and he's splitting carries with Betts right down the middle. He doesn't look like he's going to be a great option this year.

Have you changed your mind since you wrote this?

No. The Redskins squeaked out a win over one of the worst teams in the league. What will happen when they're playing catch up or when Portis doesn't have the benefit of the extra quarter? Don't get me wrong, he's not a bad player, but he's not an elite FF back either. Toto, we're not in Denver anymore.

How do you feel about Maroney?

Good back on a great offense. He should have a productive year. I see him falling somewhere in the RB6-12 range if he stays healthy.

Interesting. I feel the exact opposite. After today, I feel like Portis is going to get a bigger share of the carries each week. I also think he looked really good running the football the whole game (at least the bits I was able to see). Maroney, on the other hand, should have done better considering it was a blowout. He didn't get all the goal line carries, he didn't get any receptions, and Morris did better than he did. I think he pans out better in the long run, and he may get more work as the season goes on, but this game definitely gives you pause.

 

[Linton Trust]

i haven't been big on any of these guys... long before i came to this board...

and feel i may have been wrong about moss...

but portis and holt had good games.... but nothing to start bragging about... neither passes 100 yards and had 1 td each... good games... not great! (moss had a great game)

i also don't think this board has been hard on portis... in fact there was a thread about having him as your RB2 and winning your leagues...

i would say above all 3 of those guys though is lynch... he performed way above what i and others were expecting...

the biggest hit on this board was peterson though.... i didn't buy into the hype this board was generating about him, and now regret that!

 

[Exile]

I don't think Portis was a good value pick. His offense is horrible and he's splitting carries with Betts right down the middle. He doesn't look like he's going to be a great option this year.

Have you changed your mind since you wrote this?

No. The Redskins squeaked out a win over one of the worst teams in the league. What will happen when they're playing catch up or when Portis doesn't have the benefit of the extra quarter? Don't get me wrong, he's not a bad player, but he's not an elite FF back either. Toto, we're not in Denver anymore.

How do you feel about Maroney?

Good back on a great offense. He should have a productive year. I see him falling somewhere in the RB6-12 range if he stays healthy.

Interesting. I feel the exact opposite. After today, I feel like Portis is going to get a bigger share of the carries each week. I also think he looked really good running the football the whole game (at least the bits I was able to see). Maroney, on the other hand, should have done better considering it was a blowout. He didn't get all the goal line carries, he didn't get any receptions, and Morris did better than he did. I think he pans out better in the long run, and he may get more work as the season goes on, but this game definitely gives you pause.

I have both players and started both today.I feel great about Portis. This will be the closest ratio of carries between Portis and Betts we see all year and Portis looked fantastic (and better than Betts, IMO).Maroney, on the other hand...I don't know. He got his 20 carries, but doesn't any of the specific roles that I saw (i.e. short yardage, red zone, 3rd down, whatever). Even worse...he wasn't part of the passing game AT ALL. I'm not sure he even went out on a route on any of the passing plays, instead staying in to block. It's only week 1, but I'm a little worried.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

It just comes down to common sense really. If you see Randy Moss being drafted in the 4th-5th that just isn't right and you know it. Same thing with Clinton Portis. Guys like Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones are getting drafted ahead of him. That tells you something's not right. It's just a matter of taking advantage of the situation.

I know it's only the first week but barring injury (obviously) these guys are going to be factors in the NFL. Just like they've been nearly every season of their career.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

i haven't been big on any of these guys... long before i came to this board...

and feel i may have been wrong about moss...

but portis and holt had good games.... but nothing to start bragging about... neither passes 100 yards and had 1 td each... good games... not great! (moss had a great game)

i also don't think this board has been hard on portis... in fact there was a thread about having him as your RB2 and winning your leagues...

i would say above all 3 of those guys though is lynch... he performed way above what i and others were expecting...

the biggest hit on this board was peterson though.... i didn't buy into the hype this board was generating about him, and now regret that!

Don't be fooled by Portis' numbers. He could have easily had over 100 yards if Gibbs didn't have the kicker come in on 2nd down in overtime.